A method for predicting the risk of urban flood disaster bearers

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method for predicting the risk of urban flood disaster-affected bodies, belonging to the field of predicting the risk of disaster-affected bodies. The method includes determining the flood risk range, water accumulation depth, water accumulation time, and risk level to obtain a flood risk map; performing grid segmentation on the flood risk map to obtain the flood risk grid division result; calculating the scale of immobile disaster-affected bodies based on urban land use according to the flood risk grid division result; calculating the number of mobile disaster-affected bodies based on the origin-destination matrix according to the flood risk grid division result; calculating the risk of immobile disaster-affected bodies and the risk of mobile disaster-affected bodies within the flood risk range according to the scale of immobile disaster-affected bodies and the number of mobile disaster-affected bodies; and drawing a disaster-affected body risk map according to the risk of immobile disaster-affected bodies and the risk of mobile disaster-affected bodies to complete the prediction of the risk of urban flood disaster-affected bodies. The present invention solves the problem that the object of the existing urban flood risk forecast and early warning is not clear enough.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of disaster-bearing body risk prediction, and particularly relates to a method for predicting the risk of urban flood disaster-bearing bodies. Background Art

[0002] Under the background of climate change and urbanization, urban flood disasters occur frequently, causing serious casualties and property losses.

[0003] The flood risk forecasting and early warning and emergency response in urban areas highly depend on the effectiveness and timeliness of flood risk prediction. At present, the prediction of urban flood risk mainly focuses on the water accumulation range and depth, and lacks an understanding of the specific situation of potential disaster-bearing bodies within the flood risk area, which cannot effectively support the determination of the objects for flood risk forecasting and early warning in urban areas and the accuracy and forward-looking requirements for formulating emergency response plans. Summary of the Invention

[0004] Aiming at the above deficiencies in the prior art, a method for predicting the risk of urban flood disaster-bearing bodies provided by the present invention solves the problem that the objects for flood risk forecasting and early warning in existing urban areas are not clear enough.

[0005] In order to achieve the above invention object, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is: a method for predicting the risk of urban flood disaster-bearing bodies, including the following steps:

[0006] S1. Determine the flood risk area, water accumulation depth, water accumulation time and risk level to obtain a flood risk map;

[0007] S2. Perform grid segmentation on the flood risk map to obtain a flood risk grid division result;

[0008] S3. Calculate the scale of non-mobile disaster-bearing bodies based on urban land use according to the flood risk grid division result;

[0009] S4. Obtain population trip origin-destination data and vehicle trip origin-destination data, obtain a trip origin-destination matrix based on the population trip origin-destination data and vehicle trip origin-destination data, and calculate the number of mobile disaster-bearing bodies based on the trip origin-destination matrix according to the flood risk grid division result;

[0010] S5. Calculate the risk of non-mobile disaster-bearing bodies and the risk of mobile disaster-bearing bodies within the flood risk area according to the scale of non-mobile disaster-bearing bodies and the number of mobile disaster-bearing bodies;

[0011] S6. Divide the risk level of disaster-bearing bodies according to the risk of non-mobile disaster-bearing bodies and the risk of mobile disaster-bearing bodies, and draw a disaster-bearing body risk map to complete the prediction of the risk of urban flood disaster-bearing bodies.

[0012] Further, step S1 is specifically to divide the risk levels based on the water depth within the flood risk range during the water accumulation time to obtain a flood risk map; the risk levels are divided into four levels, specifically:

[0013] The first level: water depth < 27 cm;

[0014] The second level: 27 cm ≤ water depth < 40 cm;

[0015] The third level: 40 cm ≤ water depth < 60 cm;

[0016] The fourth level: 60 cm ≤ water depth.

[0017] Further, step S2 is specifically to perform grid segmentation on the flood risk map according to the set grid width, and take the maximum risk level within each grid area as the risk level of the corresponding grid to obtain the flood risk grid division result.

[0018] Further, the expression for the scale of immovable disaster-bearing bodies in step S3 is:

[0019] M T =(M T1 M T2 M T3 ...M Ti ) T

[0020]

[0021] W=(W1,W2,W3,…,W n ) T

[0022]

[0023] where M T is the scale of immovable disaster-bearing bodies; M Ti is the scale of immovable disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; i is the grid number; T is the transpose; M ij is the scale of the j-th type of immovable disaster-bearing body in the i-th grid; j is the number of immovable disaster-bearing body types; n is the total number of immovable disaster-bearing body types; W j is the weight of the j-th type of immovable disaster-bearing body; S ij is the floor area of the j-th type of immovable disaster-bearing body in the i-th grid; h i is the water depth of the i-th grid; W is the weight matrix of immovable disaster-bearing bodies; m is the total number of grids.

[0024] Further, step S4 is specifically:

[0025] S401. Obtain the origin-destination data of population trips and the origin-destination data of vehicle trips with the grid as the location unit according to the results of flood risk grid division;

[0026] S402. Statistically calculate the population quantity and vehicle quantity of each grid respectively according to the origin-destination data of population trips and the origin-destination data of vehicle trips;

[0027] S403. Obtain a population quantity matrix and a vehicle quantity matrix respectively according to the population quantity and vehicle quantity of each grid;

[0028] S404. Obtain the quantity of mobile disaster-bearing bodies according to the population quantity matrix and the vehicle quantity matrix.

[0029] Furthermore, the expressions for the population quantity and vehicle quantity of each grid in step S402 are respectively:

[0030]

[0031] Among them, is the population quantity with the origin-destination of trips in the i-th grid; is the population quantity with the destination of trips in the i-th grid; is the population quantity with the origin of trips in the i-th grid; is the vehicle quantity with the origin-destination of trips in the i-th grid; is the vehicle quantity with the destination of trips in the i-th grid; is the vehicle quantity with the origin of trips in the i-th grid; h i is the waterlogging depth of the i-th grid; i and q are both grid numbers; T is the transpose.

[0032] Furthermore, the expressions for the population quantity matrix and the vehicle quantity matrix in step S403 are respectively:

[0033]

[0034] Among them, P T is the population quantity matrix; is the population quantity with the origin-destination of trips in the i-th grid; V T is the vehicle quantity matrix; is the vehicle quantity with the origin-destination of trips in the i-th grid; i is the grid number; T is the transpose.

[0035] Furthermore, the expressions for the risk of non-mobile disaster-bearing bodies and the risk of mobile disaster-bearing bodies within the flood risk scope in step S5 are respectively:

[0036]

[0037] Among them, is the risk of immobile disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; M Ti is the scale of immobile disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; i is the grid number; C i is the risk level of the i-th grid; is the flood loss risk of population disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; is the number of people with trip origins and destinations in the i-th grid; is the flood loss risk of vehicle disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; is the number of vehicles with trip origins and destinations in the i-th grid.

[0038] Further, the specific step S6 is as follows: According to the risks of immobile disaster-bearing bodies and mobile disaster-bearing bodies, combined with the set risk division indicators, divide the risk levels of disaster-bearing bodies within the flood risk range, and based on the risk levels of disaster-bearing bodies, distinguish colors on the map, draw a disaster-bearing body risk map, and complete the prediction of the risks of disaster-bearing bodies in urban flood disasters.

[0039] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: Based on the flood risk map, through the systematic identification and risk assessment of immobile disaster-bearing bodies such as buildings and infrastructure within the flood risk range, and mobile disaster-bearing bodies such as population and vehicles, drawing a disaster-bearing body risk map helps to clarify the objects of flood disaster risk forecasting and early warning and emergency rescue in cities, improve the effectiveness of early warning and emergency response, and enhance the urban resilience and disaster resistance ability. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0040] Figure 1 is the flowchart of the method of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0041] The following describes the specific implementation manners of the present invention to facilitate those skilled in the art of the present technology to understand the present invention. However, it should be clear that the present invention is not limited to the scope of the specific implementation manners. For those of ordinary skill in the art of the present technology, as long as various changes are within the spirit and scope of the present invention defined and determined by the appended claims, these changes are obvious, and all inventions and creations using the concept of the present invention are within the scope of protection.

[0042] As Figure 1 shown, in an embodiment of the present invention, a method for predicting the risks of disaster-bearing bodies in urban flood disasters includes the following steps:

[0043] S1. Determine the flood risk range, water accumulation depth, water accumulation time, and risk level to obtain a flood risk map;

[0044] S2. Perform grid segmentation on the flood risk map to obtain the flood risk grid division result;

[0045] S3. Based on the results of flood risk grid division, calculate the scale of immobile disaster-bearing bodies based on urban land use;

[0046] S4. Obtain the origin-destination data of population travel and vehicle travel. Based on the origin-destination data of population travel and vehicle travel, obtain the origin-destination matrix, and based on the results of flood risk grid division, calculate the number of mobile disaster-bearing bodies based on the origin-destination matrix;

[0047] S5. Calculate the risk of immobile disaster-bearing bodies and the risk of mobile disaster-bearing bodies within the flood risk range according to the scale of immobile disaster-bearing bodies and the number of mobile disaster-bearing bodies;

[0048] S6. Divide the risk levels of disaster-bearing bodies according to the risk of immobile disaster-bearing bodies and the risk of mobile disaster-bearing bodies, and draw a disaster-bearing body risk map to complete the risk prediction of urban flood disaster disaster-bearing bodies.

[0049] The specific step S1 is to divide the risk levels based on the water depth within the flood risk range during the water accumulation time to obtain a flood risk map; the risk levels are divided into four levels, specifically:

[0050] The first level: water depth < 27 cm;

[0051] The second level: 27 cm ≤ water depth < 40 cm;

[0052] The third level: 40 cm ≤ water depth < 60 cm;

[0053] The fourth level: 60 cm ≤ water depth.

[0054] In this embodiment, the first level is a lower risk, the second level is a medium risk, the third level is a higher risk, and the fourth level is a high risk.

[0055] The specific step S2 is to perform grid segmentation on the flood risk map according to the set grid width, and use the maximum risk level within each grid area as the risk level of the corresponding grid to obtain the flood risk grid division results.

[0056] The expression for the scale of immobile disaster-bearing bodies in step S3 is:

[0057] M T =(M T1 M T2 M T3 ...M Ti ) T

[0058]

[0059] W=(W1, W2, W3, …, W n )T

[0060]

[0061] Among them, M T is the scale of immobile disaster-bearing bodies; M Ti is the scale of immobile disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; i is the grid number; T is the transpose; M ij is the scale of the j-th type of immobile disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; j is the number of immobile disaster-bearing body types; n is the total number of immobile disaster-bearing body types; W j is the weight of the j-th type of immobile disaster-bearing bodies; S ij is the floor area of the j-th type of immobile disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; h i is the waterlogging depth of the i-th grid; W is the weight matrix of immobile disaster-bearing bodies; m is the total number of grids.

[0062] The specific steps of step S4 are as follows:

[0063] S401. According to the flood risk grid division results, obtain the origin-destination data of population travel and vehicle travel with the grid as the location unit;

[0064] S402. According to the origin-destination data of population travel and vehicle travel, respectively count the population quantity and vehicle quantity of each grid;

[0065] S403. According to the population quantity and vehicle quantity of each grid, respectively obtain the population quantity matrix and vehicle quantity matrix;

[0066] S404. According to the population quantity matrix and vehicle quantity matrix, obtain the quantity of mobile disaster-bearing bodies.

[0067] The expressions of the population quantity and vehicle quantity of each grid in step S402 are respectively:

[0068]

[0069] Among them, is the population quantity of the origin-destination in the i-th grid; is the population quantity of the destination in the i-th grid; is the population quantity of the starting point in the i-th grid; is the vehicle quantity of the origin-destination in the i-th grid; is the vehicle quantity of the destination in the i-th grid; is the vehicle quantity of the starting point in the i-th grid; h i is the waterlogging depth of the i-th grid; both i and q are grid numbers; T is the transpose.

[0070] In step S403, the expressions of the population quantity matrix and the vehicle quantity matrix are respectively:

[0071]

[0072] where P T is the population quantity matrix; is the population quantity with the origin and destination of the trip in the i-th grid; V T is the vehicle quantity matrix; is the vehicle quantity with the origin and destination of the trip in the i-th grid; i is the grid number; T is the transpose.

[0073] In step S5, the expressions of the risk of immobile disaster-bearing bodies and the risk of mobile disaster-bearing bodies within the flood risk range are respectively:

[0074]

[0075] where is the risk of immobile disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; M Ti is the scale of immobile disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; i is the grid number; C i is the risk level of the i-th grid; is the flood loss risk of the population disaster-bearing body in the i-th grid; is the population quantity with the origin and destination of the trip in the i-th grid; is the flood loss risk of the vehicle disaster-bearing body in the i-th grid; is the vehicle quantity with the origin and destination of the trip in the i-th grid.

[0076] Step S6 is specifically: According to the risk of immobile disaster-bearing bodies and the risk of mobile disaster-bearing bodies, combined with the set risk division indicators, divide the risk levels of the disaster-bearing bodies within the flood risk range, and distinguish the colors based on the risk levels of the disaster-bearing bodies on the map, draw the disaster-bearing body risk map, and complete the prediction of the risk of disaster-bearing bodies in urban flood disasters.

[0077] In this embodiment, the steps of drawing the disaster-bearing body risk map include:

[0078] First step, divide the risk levels of immobile disaster-bearing bodies, mobile disaster-bearing bodies such as population and vehicle flow. The specific determination method is comprehensively determined by combining the calculation results of the risk values of various disaster-bearing bodies and the overall situation of urban economic and social development and population distribution. It can be divided into different levels such as low risk, medium risk, high risk, and very high risk with reference to the flood risk level division method, and different colors are used to distinguish the risk levels.

[0079] Step 2: Based on the risk levels of various disaster-bearing bodies, as well as the calculated risk values of immobile disaster-bearing bodies and the risk values of mobile disaster-bearing bodies such as population and vehicle flow in each grid, draw the disaster-bearing body risk maps respectively.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the risk of urban flood disaster bearers, characterized in that, It includes the following steps: S1. Determine the flood risk scope, waterlogging depth, waterlogging time, and risk level to obtain a flood risk map; S2. Conduct grid segmentation on the flood risk map to obtain the flood risk grid division result; S3. Based on the results of flood risk grid division, calculate the scale M of immovable disaster-bearing bodies based on urban land use T : M T = (M T1 M T2 M T3 ...M Ti ) T W = (W1, W2, W3, …, W n ) T Among them, M Ti is the scale of immobile disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; i is the grid number; T is the transpose; M ij is the scale of the j-th type of immobile disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; j is the number for the type of immobile disaster-bearing bodies; n is the total number of types of immobile disaster-bearing bodies; W j is the weight of the j-th type of immobile disaster-bearing bodies; S ij is the floor area of the j-th type of immobile disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; h i is the waterlogging depth of the i-th grid; W is the weight matrix of immobile disaster-bearing bodies; m is the total number of grids; S4. Obtain the origin-destination data of population travel and vehicle travel, obtain the origin-destination matrix based on the origin-destination data of population travel and vehicle travel, and calculate the number of mobile disaster-bearing bodies based on the origin-destination matrix according to the flood risk grid division result: S401. According to the flood risk grid division result, obtain the origin-destination data of population travel and vehicle travel with the grid as the location unit; S402. According to the origin-destination data of population travel and vehicle travel, respectively count the population quantity and vehicle quantity of each grid; S403. According to the population quantity and vehicle quantity of each grid, respectively obtain the population quantity matrix and vehicle quantity matrix; S404. Obtain the number of mobile disaster-bearing bodies according to the population quantity matrix and vehicle quantity matrix; S5. Calculate the risk of immobile disaster-bearing bodies and the risk of mobile disaster-bearing bodies within the flood risk scope according to the scale of immobile disaster-bearing bodies and the number of mobile disaster-bearing bodies; S6. Divide the risk level of disaster-bearing bodies according to the risk of immobile disaster-bearing bodies and the risk of mobile disaster-bearing bodies, and draw a disaster-bearing body risk map to complete the risk prediction of urban flood disaster disaster-bearing bodies.

2. The method for predicting the risk of urban flood disaster bearers according to claim 1, characterized in that The specific content of step S1 is to conduct risk level division based on the waterlogging depth within the flood risk scope during the waterlogging time to obtain a flood risk map; the risk level is divided into four levels, specifically: The first level: waterlogging depth < 27 cm; The second level: 27 cm ≤ waterlogging depth < 40 cm; The third level: 40 cm ≤ waterlogging depth < 60 cm; The fourth level: 60 cm ≤ waterlogging depth.

3. The urban flood disaster bearing body risk prediction method according to claim 1, wherein The specific content of step S2 is to conduct grid segmentation on the flood risk map according to the set grid width, and use the maximum risk level within each grid area as the risk level of the corresponding grid to obtain the flood risk grid division result.

4. The method for predicting the risk of urban flood disaster-bearing bodies according to claim 1, characterized in that The expressions for the population quantity and vehicle quantity of each grid in step S402 are respectively: wherein, is the population quantity with the origin and destination of the trip in the i-th grid; is the population quantity with the destination of the trip in the i-th grid; is the population quantity with the origin of the trip in the i-th grid; is the vehicle quantity with the origin and destination of the trip in the i-th grid; is the vehicle quantity with the destination of the trip in the i-th grid; is the vehicle quantity with the origin of the trip in the i-th grid; h i is the water accumulation depth of the i-th grid; both i and q are grid numbers; T is the transpose.

5. The method for predicting the risk of urban flood disaster bearers according to claim 1, wherein The expressions for the population quantity matrix and vehicle quantity matrix in step S403 are respectively: Among them, P T is the population quantity matrix; is the population quantity of the origin-destination of trips in the i-th grid; V T is the vehicle quantity matrix; is the vehicle quantity of the origin-destination of trips in the i-th grid; i is the grid number; T is the transpose.

6. The method for predicting the risk of urban flood disaster bearers according to claim 1, wherein, The expressions for the risk of immobile disaster-bearing bodies and the risk of mobile disaster-bearing bodies within the flood risk scope in step S5 are respectively: Among them, is the risk of immovable disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; M Ti is the scale of immovable disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; i is the grid number; C i is the risk level of the i-th grid; is the risk of flood losses of population disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; is the number of people with the origin and destination of travel in the i-th grid; is the risk of flood losses of vehicle disaster-bearing bodies in the i-th grid; is the number of vehicles with the origin and destination of travel in the i-th grid.

7. The method for predicting the risk of urban flood disaster bearers according to claim 1, characterized in that, The specific content of step S6 is: According to the risk of immobile disaster-bearing bodies and the risk of mobile disaster-bearing bodies, combined with the set risk division index, divide the risk level of disaster-bearing bodies within the flood risk scope, and distinguish colors on the map based on the risk level of disaster-bearing bodies to draw a disaster-bearing body risk map to complete the risk prediction of urban flood disaster disaster-bearing bodies.

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