A method for analyzing the frequency of power loss and profit based on multi-regional long-term renewable energy power

Abstract

The present invention provides a method for analyzing the power and electricity profit and loss frequency based on multi-region long-term new energy power, including: planning the power load characteristics and basic power generation parameters of each research object area in the future design working condition year; determining the meteorological data of each research object area in each meteorological annual working condition in each time period, and then obtaining the wind power and photovoltaic power generation power; performing power and electricity profit and loss analysis on different time scales of the research object area in the future design working condition year, and fitting it into a frequency characteristic curve. The present invention takes into account a variety of meteorological annual working conditions, so as to examine the power and electricity profit and loss of the planning scheme in the future design working condition year under the action of each meteorological annual working condition, thereby obtaining the power and electricity profit and loss results of the multi-region long-term series, thereby obtaining a more accurate, comprehensive and reliable frequency characteristic curve, guiding the adjustment direction of the planning scheme when any frequency design requirements are met, and providing data support for power system planning or optimal scheduling.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of power analysis, and specifically relates to a method for analyzing the frequency of power loss and profit based on multi-regional long-time series new energy power. Background Art

[0002] At present, in the field of power system power planning, statistical methods based on typical daily load demand in a single study area and assumed power generation under extreme conditions of new energy are mainly used to guide the power planning scheme for the future design year. The calculation result is the power profit and loss of a single study area under the assumed conditions. Specifically, this method usually uses the typical daily load curve of the maximum load month in the future design year of a certain study area, and performs power profit and loss analysis by assuming the power generation capacity of the basic power source. This method has the following problems: Due to the lack of meteorological data for one year in the future design year, it is usually assumed that wind power and photovoltaic power are under extreme conditions for calculation, resulting in a single factor considered in the planning scheme, low data support, poor reliability of results, and low practicality. Summary of the invention

[0003] In view of the defects of the prior art, the present invention provides a method for analyzing the profit and loss frequency of electric power based on multi-regional long-term new energy power, which can effectively solve the above problems.

[0004] The technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows:

[0005] The present invention provides a method for analyzing the frequency of electric power surplus and deficit based on multi-regional long-time series new energy power, comprising the following steps:

[0006] Step S1, determining an overall research area; dividing the overall research area into n sub-research areas;

[0007] The whole research area and each sub-research area are called research object areas. Therefore, there are n+1 research object areas, which are represented as research object areas AREA0, AREA1, AREA2, ..., AREA n ; Among them, AREA0 represents the overall study area; AREA1, AREA2,..., AREA n represents n sub-study areas;

[0008] Step S2, determine the future design condition year x; plan each research object area AREA i The power load characteristics of each period t in the future design operating condition year x include: the domestic power load of each period t Transmitted power load and received power load Where i = 0, 1, 2, ..., n;

[0009] Step S3: planning each research object area AREA i The basic power generation parameters in the future design operating condition year x include: the types of power generation sources used are basic power source normal, wind power wind and photovoltaic power station solar, and the power p that can be generated by each basic power source normal in each time period t in the future design operating condition year x i_normal,t , the installed capacity of wind power wind in the future design operating condition year x is q i_wind , the installed capacity q of the photovoltaic power station solar in the future design operating condition year x i_solar ;

[0010] Step S4, determine y meteorological annual conditions and determine the AREA of each research object i Meteorological data for each period t under each meteorological year condition k; where k = 1, 2, ..., y;

[0011] The research area AREA i Based on the meteorological data of each period t in each meteorological year condition k, combined with the research area AREA i The planned installed capacity of wind power wind in the future design operating condition year x is q i_wind , under the action of meteorological data of each period t in each meteorological year condition k, the research object area AREA i The wind power wind is the wind power generation power p in each period t in the future design operating condition year x i_wind,t ;

[0012] The research area AREA i Based on the meteorological data of each period t in each meteorological year condition k, combined with the research area AREA i The planned installed capacity q of the photovoltaic power station solar in the future design operating condition year x i_solar , under the action of meteorological data of each period t in each meteorological year condition k, the research object area AREA i The photovoltaic power generation power p of the photovoltaic power station solar in each period t in the future design operating condition year x i_solar,t ;

[0013] Step S5: for each research object area AREA i , for its power load characteristics in each period t in the future design operating condition year x, the power p that the basic power supply normal can generate in each period t in the future design operating condition year x i_normal,t , and the wind power generation power p of wind power in each period t under each meteorological annual operating condition k i_wind,t, the photovoltaic power generation power p of the photovoltaic power station solar in each period t under each meteorological annual operating condition k i_solar,t A comprehensive analysis was conducted to obtain the AREA of the research object under the influence of y meteorological annual conditions. i The power and electricity profit and loss results at different time scales in the future design operating condition year x; wherein, at each time scale, the power and electricity profit and loss results include multiple power and electricity profit and loss values, assuming that a total of w power and electricity profit and loss values ​​are included;

[0014] Step S6, sorting the obtained w electric power profit and loss values ​​in order from the most profitable to the most deficient, and assigning the frequency characteristic value f of the electric power profit and loss value ranked at the xth position to be: f=x / w;

[0015] With the frequency characteristic value as the horizontal coordinate and the power profit and loss value as the vertical coordinate, the obtained w power profit and loss values ​​are represented in the coordinate system and fitted into a frequency characteristic curve; the frequency characteristic curve reflects the power profit and loss characteristics of the basic power generation parameters of each research object area planned relative to the planned power load characteristics in the future design operating year x, and further reflects the power demand space of the planning scheme.

[0016] Preferably, in step S2, the domestic power load, external power load and received power load of each sub-study area in each time period t are first planned; then, the domestic power loads of all sub-study areas in each time period t are summed up to obtain the domestic power load of the overall study area in each time period t; the external power loads of all sub-study areas in each time period t are summed up to obtain the external power load of the overall study area in each time period t; the received power loads of all sub-study areas in each time period t are summed up to obtain the received power load of the overall study area in each time period t.

[0017] Preferably, in step S3, the basic power source normal includes thermal power, gas power, nuclear power, hydropower, pumped storage and new storage; therefore, the planning obtains each research object area AREA i The thermal power generation capacity p of coal-fired power in each period t in the future design operating condition year x i_thermal,t 、The power that can be generated by gas-fired power generation i_gas,t 、Nuclear power can generate power p i_nuclear,t 、The power that hydropower can generate i_hydro,t 、Pumped & storage power generation capacity p i_pumped&storage,t and the power generated by the new storage i_new storage,t;

[0018] Among them: The thermal power generation capacity of coal-fired power p i_thermal,t 、The power that can be generated by gas-fired power generation i_gas,t and nuclear power can generate power p i_nuclear,t , are all the power that can be generated after considering the obstruction; the power that can be generated by hydropower is p i_hydro,t , which is the expected power generation capacity of hydropower.

[0019] Preferably, in step S5, the research object area AREA i The power profit and loss results at different time scales in the future design operating condition year x, including week-by-week power profit and loss results, week-by-week peak load profit and loss results, and year-by-year power profit and loss results.

[0020] Preferably, step S5 is specifically:

[0021] Step S5.1: Use formula (1) to transform each research object area AREA i Domestic power demand load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x and external power load Overlay to obtain the research object area AREA i The power demand load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x

[0022]

[0023] Step S5.2, using formula (2) in units of weeks, obtain the research area AREA i The maximum power demand load on a weekly basis in the future design operating condition year x And determine the maximum weekly power demand load Corresponding time period Specifically, the research area AREA i The maximum power demand load period in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x;

[0024]

[0025] in: Representative research area AREA i The weekly maximum power demand load in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x;

[0026] Representative research area AREA i The power demand load in each period t in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x The maximum value of

[0027] Representative research area AREA i The maximum value of the domestic power load in each period t in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x; α and β represent the research object area AREA i The load reserve factor and accident reserve factor in the future design operating condition year x;

[0028] Step S5.3, for the research object area AREA i Analyze the weekly power profit and loss under each meteorological annual operating condition k;

[0029] Step S5.4, for the research object area AREA i The weekly peak load regulation profit and loss under each meteorological annual operating condition k is analyzed;

[0030] Step S5.5, for the research object area AREA i The annual electricity profit and loss under each meteorological annual operating condition k is analyzed.

[0031] Preferably, step S5.3 is specifically:

[0032] For each meteorological year condition k, a week-by-week analysis is performed; therefore, for the jth week of each meteorological year condition k, the following analysis is performed:

[0033] Step S5.3.1, for the research object area AREA i Wind power generation power p in each period t of the jth week under the meteorological annual condition k i_wind,t Analyze and obtain the research object area AREA i The period of week j under the meteorological annual condition k Corresponding wind power generation

[0034] AREA i Photovoltaic power generation p in each period t of the jth week under the meteorological annual condition k i_solar,t Analyze and obtain the research object area AREA i The period of week j under the meteorological condition k Corresponding photovoltaic power generation

[0035] Step S5.3.2, for the research object area AREA i The incoming power load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x Analyze and obtain the research object area AREA i In the period of week j Corresponding incoming power load

[0036] According to the basic power supply normal planned in step S3, formula (3) is used to calculate the power p that can be generated in each time period t in the future design operating condition year x. i_normal,t , and obtain the power p that can be generated in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x i_normal,j :

[0037] p i_normal,j =p i_thermal,j +p i_gas,j +p i_nuclear,j +p i_hydro,j +p i_pumped&storage,j +p i_new storage,j (3)

[0038] Where: p i_thermal,j 、p i_gas,j 、p i_nuclear,j 、p i_hydro,j 、p i_pumped&storage,j and p i_new storage,j , respectively represent the weekly power generation capacity of thermal, gas, nuclear, hydro, pumped storage and new storage in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x;

[0039] Step S5.3.3, using formula (4), obtain the research object area AREA i Under the influence of the weather in the jth week of the meteorological condition k in the future design operating condition year x, the weekly power profit and loss value in the jth week of the meteorological condition k is

[0040]

[0041] This enables weekly electricity profit and loss analysis.

[0042] Preferably, step S5.4 is specifically:

[0043] Step S5.4.1, using formula (5), obtain the area AREA of each research object i Net power load in each period t in the future design operating year x

[0044]

[0045] Step S5.4.2: In units of days, the research area AREA i Daily net power load in future design year x Subtract the maximum and minimum values ​​to get the daily net load difference, that is, the daily peak-to-valley difference;

[0046] Step S5.4.3, analyze the research object area AREA in units of weeks i The maximum value of the peak-to-valley difference of each week in the future design operating condition year x is obtained

[0047] Step S5.4.4, using formula (6), obtain the research object area AREA i The maximum peak load demand in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x

[0048]

[0049] in: Representative research area AREA i The maximum weekly peak load demand in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x;

[0050] Representative research area AREA i The maximum power demand load in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x;

[0051] Step S5.4.5, using formula (7), obtain the research object area AREA i Weekly adjustable peak capacity in week j of future design operating condition year x

[0052]

[0053] Where: p thermal,min 、p gas,min 、p nuclear,min and p hydro,min , which are the minimum operating capacities of thermal power, gas power, nuclear power and hydro power respectively;

[0054] For pumped storage and new storage, they have the ability to change from full-power pumping state to full-power power generation state, so the adjustable peak capacity is 200% of full power generation power;

[0055] Step S5.4.6, using formula (8), obtain the research object area AREA i Weekly peak load regulation profit and loss value in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x

[0056]

[0057] This enables weekly peak-shaving profit and loss analysis.

[0058] Preferably, step S5.5 is specifically:

[0059] Step S5.5.1, according to the research object area AREA i Domestic power demand load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x Get the research area AREA i Domestic electricity demand in the future design operating condition year x

[0060] According to the research area AREA i The power transmission load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x Get the research area AREA i The amount of electricity delivered in the future design operating condition year x

[0061] Domestic electricity demand and outbound power Sum and get the research object area AREA i The power demand in the future design operating condition year x

[0062] Step S5.5.2, obtain the research object area AREA i The annual power generation capacity of thermal power in the future design operating condition year x is Q thermal 、The annual power generation capacity of gas-fired power plant is Q gas 、Nuclear power annual power generation Q nuclear 、The annual power generation of hydropower is Q hydro ;

[0063] According to the research area AREA i The incoming power load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x Get the research area AREA i The annual power input Q in the future design operating condition year x incom ;

[0064] According to the research area AREA i Wind power generation power p in each time period t under each meteorological annual condition k i_wind,t , get the research object area AREA i Annual wind power generation under each meteorological annual operating condition k

[0065] According to the research area AREA iPhotovoltaic power generation power p in each time period t under each meteorological annual condition k i_solar,t , get the research object area AREA i Annual photovoltaic power generation under each meteorological annual operating condition k

[0066] Get the research area AREA i Pumped storage pumped&storage Annual power consumption of pumped storage under each meteorological annual operating condition k

[0067] Get the research area AREA i The annual power consumption of new energy storage under each meteorological annual operating condition k

[0068] Step S5.5.3, using formula (9), obtain the research object area AREA i Annual electricity surplus and deficit value under each meteorological annual operating condition k

[0069]

[0070] Since each meteorological annual operating condition k has a corresponding annual electricity profit and loss value This enables year-by-year electricity profit and loss analysis.

[0071] The electric power profit and loss frequency analysis method based on multi-region long-time series new energy power provided by the present invention has the following advantages:

[0072] By taking into account a variety of meteorological annual conditions, the power profit and loss of the planning scheme in the future design operating year under the influence of each meteorological annual condition can be examined. This can obtain the power profit and loss results of multiple regions in a long time series, thereby obtaining a more accurate, comprehensive and reliable frequency characteristic curve, guiding the adjustment direction of the planning scheme when any frequency design is required, and providing data support for power system planning or optimal scheduling. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0073] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for analyzing the frequency of electric power deficit based on multi-regional long-time series new energy power provided by the present invention;

[0074] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of dividing the overall study area into five sub-study areas provided in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0075] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the power supply types planned for each research object area provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0076] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of a frequency characteristic curve of a power profit and loss sequence provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0077] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of a frequency characteristic curve of a peak-shaving profit and loss sequence provided in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0078] Figure 6 A schematic diagram of a frequency characteristic curve of a power surplus and deficit sequence provided in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0079] In order to make the technical problems, technical solutions and beneficial effects solved by the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not used to limit the present invention.

[0080] The present invention provides a method for analyzing the frequency of electric power surplus and deficit based on multi-regional long-time series new energy power, comprising the following steps:

[0081] Step S1, determining an overall research area; dividing the overall research area into n sub-research areas;

[0082] The whole research area and each sub-research area are called research object areas. Therefore, there are n+1 research object areas, which are represented as research object areas AREA0, AREA1, AREA2, ..., AREA n ; Among them, AREA0 represents the overall study area; AREA1, AREA2,..., AREA n represents n sub-study areas;

[0083] In practical applications, the overall research area is divided into multiple sub-research areas based on the grid structure, new energy resource distribution or other factors. Figure 2 As shown in FIG. 1 , it is a schematic diagram of dividing the overall research area into five sub-research areas in this embodiment, and the five sub-research areas are respectively represented as: Area 1, Area 2, Area 3, Area 4, and Area 5. Therefore, Figure 2 In the figure, Area 1, Area 2, Area 3, Area 4, Area 5, and the entire study area are all the study object areas in the subsequent description.

[0084] Step S2, determine the future design condition year x; plan each research object area AREA i The power load characteristics of each period t in the future design operating condition year x include: the domestic power load of each period t Transmitted power load and received power load Where i = 0, 1, 2, ..., n;

[0085] In the present invention, since the power and electricity profit and loss frequency analysis needs to be performed on the overall study area and each sub-study area, the following method is used to determine the power load characteristics of the overall study area and each sub-study area in each period t of the future design operating condition year x:

[0086] First, plan the domestic power load, external power load and received power load of each sub-study area at each time period t; then, sum the domestic power load of all sub-study areas at each time period t to obtain the domestic power load of the overall study area at each time period t; sum the external power load of all sub-study areas at each time period t to obtain the external power load of the overall study area at each time period t; sum the received power load of all sub-study areas at each time period t to obtain the received power load of the overall study area at each time period t.

[0087] Step S3: planning each research object area AREA i The basic power generation parameters in the future design operating condition year x include: the types of power generation sources used are basic power source normal, wind power wind and photovoltaic power station solar, and the power p that can be generated by each basic power source normal in each time period t in the future design operating condition year x i_normal,t , the installed capacity of wind power wind in the future design operating condition year x is q i_wind , the installed capacity q of the photovoltaic power station solar in the future design operating condition year x i_solar ;

[0088] In the present invention, as a specific embodiment, the basic power source normal includes thermal power, gas power, nuclear power, hydropower, pumped storage and new storage; therefore, the planning obtains each research object area AREA i The thermal power generation capacity p of coal-fired power in each period t in the future design operating condition year x i_thermal,t 、The power that can be generated by gas-fired power generation i_gas,t 、Nuclear power can generate power p i_nuclear,t 、The power that hydropower can generate i_hydro,t 、Pumped & storage power generation capacity p i_pumped&storage,t and the power generated by the new storage i_new storage,t ;

[0089] Among them: The thermal power generation capacity of coal-fired power pi_thermal,t 、The power that can be generated by gas-fired power generation i_gas,t and nuclear power can generate power p i_nuclear,t , are all the power that can be generated after considering the obstruction; the power that can be generated by hydropower is p i_hydro,t , which is the expected power generation capacity of hydropower.

[0090] As an example, Figure 3 As shown, it is the power type planned for each research object area. That is to say, for each research object area, the present invention must plan wind power and photovoltaic power station solar. For the 6 basic power sources normal, namely: thermal power, gas power, nuclear power, hydropower, pumped storage and new energy storage new storage, each research object area plans one or more of the 6 basic power sources normal according to the actual planning situation, and it is not required to plan all 6 basic power sources normal.

[0091] Step S4, determine y meteorological annual conditions and determine the AREA of each research object i Meteorological data of each time period t in each meteorological annual operating condition k; where k = 1, 2, ..., y; where the meteorological data includes but is not limited to wind speed, irradiance, etc., which directly affects the power generation of wind power and photovoltaic power station solar.

[0092] In the present invention, a total of y meteorological annual conditions are designed, and each meteorological annual condition k refers to the meteorological data of each time period t of a year; the y meteorological annual conditions can be selected meteorological data of certain historical years; or they can be meteorological data of multiple years designed by analyzing multiple historical annual meteorological data and combining them with the actual needs of the power and electricity profit and loss frequency analysis. The present invention does not limit the source of the y meteorological annual conditions. In order to improve the comprehensiveness of the power and electricity profit and loss frequency analysis and the reliability of the results, multiple meteorological annual conditions with significant differences should be selected, and the number of years of meteorological annual conditions can be 10 to 40 years.

[0093] The research area AREA i Based on the meteorological data of each period t in each meteorological year condition k, combined with the research area AREA i The planned installed capacity of wind power wind in the future design operating condition year x is q i_wind , under the action of meteorological data of each period t in each meteorological year condition k, the research object area AREA i The wind power wind is the wind power generation power p in each period t in the future design operating condition year x i_wind,t ;

[0094] The research area AREA i Based on the meteorological data of each period t in each meteorological year condition k, combined with the research area AREA i The planned installed capacity q of the photovoltaic power station solar in the future design operating condition year x i_solar , under the action of meteorological data of each period t in each meteorological year condition k, the research object area AREA i The photovoltaic power generation power p of the photovoltaic power station solar in each period t in the future design operating condition year x i_solar,t ;

[0095] Step S5: for each research object area AREA i , for its power load characteristics in each period t in the future design operating condition year x, the power p that the basic power supply normal can generate in each period t in the future design operating condition year x i_normal,t , and the wind power generation power p of wind power in each period t under each meteorological annual operating condition k i_wind,t , the photovoltaic power generation power p of the photovoltaic power station solar in each period t under each meteorological annual operating condition k i_solar,t A comprehensive analysis was conducted to obtain the AREA of the research object under the influence of y meteorological annual conditions. i The power and electricity profit and loss results at different time scales in the future design operating condition year x; wherein, at each time scale, the power and electricity profit and loss results include multiple power and electricity profit and loss values, assuming that a total of w power and electricity profit and loss values ​​are included;

[0096] As an example, the research object area AREA i The power and electricity profit and loss results at different time scales in the future design operating condition year x include the weekly power profit and loss results, the weekly peak load profit and loss results, and the annual power profit and loss results. Therefore, step S5 is specifically as follows:

[0097] Step S5.1: Use formula (1) to transform each research object area AREA i Domestic power demand load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x and external power load Overlay to obtain the research object area AREA i The power demand load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x

[0098]

[0099] Step S5.2, using formula (2) in units of weeks, obtain the research area AREA iThe maximum power demand load on a weekly basis in the future design operating condition year x And determine the maximum weekly power demand load Corresponding time period Specifically, the research area AREA i The maximum power demand load period in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x;

[0100]

[0101] in: Representative research area AREA i The weekly maximum power demand load in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x;

[0102] Representative research area AREA i The power demand load in each period t in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x The maximum value of

[0103] Representative research area AREA i The maximum value of the domestic power load in each period t in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x; α and β represent the research object area AREA i The load reserve factor and accident reserve factor in the future design operating condition year x; generally, α is 2% to 5%, and β is 8% to 10%;

[0104] Step S5.3, for the research object area AREA i Analyze the weekly power profit and loss under each meteorological annual operating condition k;

[0105] Step S5.3 is specifically as follows:

[0106] For each meteorological year condition k, a week-by-week analysis is performed; therefore, for the jth week of each meteorological year condition k, the following analysis is performed:

[0107] Step S5.3.1, for the research object area AREA i Wind power generation power p in each period t of the jth week under the meteorological annual condition k i_wind,t Analyze and obtain the research object area AREA i The period of week j under the meteorological condition k Corresponding wind power generation

[0108] AREA iPhotovoltaic power generation p in each period t of the jth week under the meteorological annual condition k i_solar,t Analyze and obtain the research object area AREA i The period of week j under the meteorological condition k Corresponding photovoltaic power generation

[0109] Step S5.3.2, for the research object area AREA i The incoming power load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x Analyze and obtain the research object area AREA i In the period of week j Corresponding incoming power load

[0110] According to the basic power supply normal planned in step S3, formula (3) is used to calculate the power p that can be generated in each time period t in the future design operating condition year x. i_normal,t , and obtain the power p that can be generated in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x i_normal,j :

[0111] p i_normal,j =p i_thermal,j +p i_gas,j +p i_nuclear,j +p i_hydro,j +p i_pumped&storage,j +p i_new storage,j (3)

[0112] Where: p i_thermal,j 、p i_gas,j 、p i_nuclear,j 、p i_hydro,j 、p i_pumped&storage,j and p i_new storage,j , respectively represent the weekly power generation capacity of thermal, gas, nuclear, hydro, pumped storage and new storage in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x;

[0113] Step S5.3.3, using formula (4), obtain the research object area AREA i Under the influence of the weather in the jth week of the meteorological condition k in the future design operating condition year x, the weekly power profit and loss value in the jth week of the meteorological condition k is

[0114]

[0115] This enables weekly electricity profit and loss analysis.

[0116] Step S5.4, for the research object area AREA i The weekly peak load regulation profit and loss under each meteorological annual operating condition k is analyzed;

[0117] Step S5.4 is specifically as follows:

[0118] Step S5.4.1, using formula (5), obtain the area AREA of each research object i Net power load in each period t in the future design operating year x

[0119]

[0120] Step S5.4.2: In units of days, the research area AREA i Daily net power load in future design year x Subtract the maximum and minimum values ​​to get the daily net load difference, that is, the daily peak-to-valley difference;

[0121] Step S5.4.3, analyze the research object area AREA in units of weeks i The maximum value of the peak-to-valley difference of each week in the future design operating condition year x is obtained

[0122] Step S5.4.4, using formula (6), obtain the research object area AREA i The maximum peak load demand in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x

[0123]

[0124] in: Representative research area AREA i The maximum weekly peak load demand in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x;

[0125] Representative research area AREA i The maximum power demand load in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x;

[0126] Step S5.4.5, using formula (7), obtain the research object area AREA i Weekly adjustable peak capacity in week j of future design operating condition year x

[0127]

[0128] Where: p thermal,min 、p gas,min 、pnuclear,min and p hydro,min , which are the minimum operating capacities of thermal power, gas power, nuclear power and hydro power respectively;

[0129] For pumped storage and new storage, they have the ability to change from full-power pumping to full-power generating state, so the adjustable peak capacity is 200% of full generating power.

[0130] Step S5.4.6, using formula (8), obtain the research object area AREA i Weekly peak load regulation profit and loss value in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x

[0131]

[0132] This enables weekly peak-shaving profit and loss analysis.

[0133] Step S5.5, for the research object area AREA i The annual electricity profit and loss under each meteorological annual operating condition k is analyzed.

[0134] Step S5.5 is specifically as follows:

[0135] Step S5.5.1, according to the research object area AREA i Domestic power demand load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x Get the research area AREA i Domestic electricity demand in the future design operating condition year x

[0136] According to the research area AREA i The power transmission load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x Get the research area AREA i The amount of electricity delivered in the future design operating condition year x

[0137] Domestic electricity demand and power delivered Sum and get the research object area AREA i The power demand in the future design operating condition year x

[0138] Step S5.5.2, obtain the research object area AREA i The annual power generation capacity of thermal power in the future design operating condition year x is Q thermal 、The annual power generation capacity of gas-fired power plant is Qgas 、Nuclear power annual power generation Q nuclear 、The annual power generation of hydropower is Q hydro ;

[0139] According to the research area AREA i The incoming power load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x Get the research area AREA i The annual power input Q in the future design operating condition year x incom ;

[0140] According to the research area AREA i Wind power generation power p in each time period t under each meteorological annual condition k i_wind,t , get the research object area AREA i Annual wind power generation under each meteorological annual operating condition k

[0141] According to the research area AREA i Photovoltaic power generation p in each time period t under each meteorological annual condition k i_solar,t , get the research object area AREA i Annual photovoltaic power generation under each meteorological annual operating condition k

[0142] Get the research area AREA i Pumped storage pumped&storage Annual power consumption of pumped storage under each meteorological annual operating condition k

[0143] Get the research area AREA i The annual power consumption of new energy storage under each meteorological annual operating condition k

[0144] Step S5.5.3, using formula (9), obtain the research object area AREA i Annual electricity surplus and deficit value under each meteorological annual operating condition k

[0145]

[0146] Since each meteorological annual operating condition k has a corresponding annual electricity profit and loss value This enables year-by-year electricity profit and loss analysis.

[0147] Step S6, sorting the obtained w electric power profit and loss values ​​in order from the most profitable to the most deficient, and assigning the frequency characteristic value f of the electric power profit and loss value ranked at the xth position to be: f=x / w;

[0148] With the frequency characteristic value as the horizontal coordinate and the power profit and loss value as the vertical coordinate, the obtained w power profit and loss values ​​are represented in the coordinate system and fitted into a frequency characteristic curve; the frequency characteristic curve reflects the power profit and loss characteristics of the basic power generation parameters of each research object area planned relative to the planned power load characteristics in the future design operating year x, and further reflects the power demand space of the planning scheme.

[0149] Combination Figure 3 According to the situation shown, the following planning is carried out for the overall study area and Zones 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5:

[0150] Plan the power load characteristics of each zone and the entire zone in each time period t in the future design operating condition year x;

[0151] Plan the basic power generation parameters for each district and the entire district in the future design operating condition year x, including: the types of power generation power sources used are basic power source normal, wind power wind and photovoltaic power station solar, and the power p that can be generated by each basic power source normal in each time period t in the future design operating condition year x i_normal,t , the installed capacity of wind power wind in the future design operating condition year x is q i_wind , the installed capacity q of the photovoltaic power station solar in the future design operating condition year x i_solar ;

[0152] Under each meteorological annual operating condition, the wind power generation power p of each area and the entire area in each time period t in the future design operating condition year x is obtained. i_wind,t , and the photovoltaic power generation power p of each district and the photovoltaic power station solar in the whole district in the future design working condition year x in each period t i_solar,t ;

[0153] The power profit and loss analysis of each district and the whole district at different time scales in the future design operating condition year x is carried out, and the order is sorted according to the frequency to obtain Figure 4 The frequency characteristic curve of the power profit and loss sequence shown in the figure is Figure 5 The peak-shaving profit and loss sequence frequency characteristic curve shown in the figure, and Figure 6 The frequency characteristic curve of the electricity profit and loss sequence is shown.

[0154] Among the three obtained frequency characteristic curves, as an embodiment, when the frequency is 99%, the weekly power profit and loss values, weekly peak load profit and loss values, and annual power profit and loss values ​​of each zone and the entire zone corresponding to the frequency shown in Table 1 are directly read:

[0155] Table 1 Power profit and loss of each area and the whole area at 99% frequency

[0156]

[0157]

[0158] As can be seen from Table 1, there are different types of profit and loss gaps in areas 1, 3, 4, and 5:

[0159] The power and electricity gap in Area 1 is large, but the peak-shaving gap is small. Therefore, the types of power sources planned in Area 1 need to be adjusted. The power source should be supplemented with coal-fired power as the main power source and pumped storage power stations as the auxiliary power source.

[0160] The power gap in Area 3 is smaller than that in Area 1, but the peak-shaving gap is larger. Therefore, the planning scheme for Area 3 needs to be adjusted to supplement the power source with pumped storage power stations as the main power source and coal-fired power as the auxiliary power source.

[0161] There is only a power shortage in Areas 4 and 5, therefore, the planning schemes for Areas 4 and 5 will be adjusted to supplement power sources mainly based on wind power and photovoltaic power.

[0162] It can be seen that after obtaining the weekly power profit and loss frequency characteristic curve, the weekly peak load profit and loss frequency characteristic curve, and the annual power profit and loss frequency characteristic curve, any frequency is selected, generally 90% to 100%, and by comparing the power and power profit and loss of each district at the selected frequency, the optimization scheme for each district planning scheme can be quickly and accurately obtained, so that each district and the overall district can meet the power and power balance requirements. In general, the profit and loss results of the overall area represent the power and power demand of the area, while the profit and loss results of each sub-area are related to the power installed structure in each sub-area, showing diversity in different areas, but the profit and loss results of each sub-area objectively represent the demand or flow of power, peak load and power. When allocating the overall power and power of the study area among sub-areas, the power and power results of the sub-areas can be referred to to judge the overall profit and loss distribution of the study area.

[0163] The present invention provides a method for analyzing the frequency of electric power surplus and deficit based on multi-regional long-time series new energy power, which has the following characteristics:

[0164] According to the difference between the characteristics of the basic power supply normal and the wind power and photovoltaic power station solar power supply, when planning the power generation parameters for the future design working condition year, the power generation capacity of the basic power supply normal is planned, while the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power station solar is planned;

[0165] In order to analyze the power profit and loss of the planning scheme in the future design operating year more comprehensively and reliably, various meteorological annual conditions are considered to examine the power profit and loss of the planning scheme in the future design operating year under the influence of each meteorological annual condition. In this way, the power profit and loss results of multiple regions in a long time series can be obtained, thereby obtaining a more accurate, comprehensive and reliable frequency characteristic curve, which can guide the adjustment direction of the planning scheme when any frequency design is required, and provide data support for power system planning or optimal scheduling.

[0166] The meteorological annual conditions in the present invention are not limited to the historical annual meteorological conditions, and can be flexibly designed according to demand. Therefore, the power and electricity performance of the planning scheme can be evaluated under various meteorological annual conditions, and the evaluation results are more comprehensive, thereby improving the reliability of the evaluation results.

[0167] The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be pointed out that for ordinary technicians in this technical field, several improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the principle of the present invention. These improvements and modifications should also be considered as the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing the frequency of electric power surplus and deficit based on multi-regional long-term renewable energy power, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step S1, determining an overall research area; dividing the overall research area into n sub-research areas; The whole research area and each sub-research area are called research object areas. Therefore, there are n+1 research object areas, which are represented as research object areas AREA0, AREA1, AREA2, ..., AREA n ; Among them, AREA0 represents the overall study area; AREA1, AREA2,..., AREA n represents n sub-study areas; Step S2, determine the future design condition year x; plan each research object area AREA i The power load characteristics of each period t in the future design operating condition year x include: the domestic power load of each period t Transmission load and received power load Where i = 0, 1, 2, ..., n; Step S3: planning each research object area AREA i The basic power generation parameters in the future design operating condition year x include: the types of power generation sources used are basic power source normal, wind power wind and photovoltaic power station solar, and the power p that can be generated by each basic power source normal in each time period t in the future design operating condition year x i_normal,t , the installed capacity of wind power wind in the future design operating condition year x is q i_wind , the installed capacity q of the photovoltaic power station solar in the future design operating condition year x i_solar ; Step S4, determine y meteorological annual conditions and determine the AREA of each research object i Meteorological data for each period t under each meteorological year condition k; where k = 1, 2, ..., y; The research area AREA i Based on the meteorological data of each period t in each meteorological year condition k, combined with the research area AREA i The planned installed capacity of wind power wind in the future design operating condition year x is q i_wind , under the action of meteorological data of each period t in each meteorological year condition k, the research object area AREA i The wind power wind is the wind power generation power p in each period t in the future design operating condition year x i_wind,t ; The research area AREA i Based on the meteorological data of each period t in each meteorological year condition k, combined with the research area AREA i The planned installed capacity q of the photovoltaic power station solar in the future design operating condition year x i_solar , under the action of meteorological data of each period t in each meteorological year condition k, the research object area AREA i The photovoltaic power generation power p of the photovoltaic power station solar in each period t in the future design operating condition year x i_solar,t ; Step S5: for each research object area AREA i , for its power load characteristics in each period t in the future design operating condition year x, the power p that the basic power supply normal can generate in each period t in the future design operating condition year x i_normal,t , and the wind power generation power p of wind power in each period t under each meteorological annual operating condition k i_wind,t , the photovoltaic power generation power p of the photovoltaic power station solar in each period t under each meteorological annual operating condition k i_solar,t A comprehensive analysis was conducted to obtain the AREA of the research object under the influence of y meteorological annual conditions. i The power and electricity profit and loss results at different time scales in the future design operating condition year x; wherein, at each time scale, the power and electricity profit and loss results include multiple power and electricity profit and loss values, assuming that a total of w power and electricity profit and loss values ​​are included; Step S5 is specifically as follows: Step S5.1: Use formula (1) to transform each research object area AREA i Domestic power demand load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x and external power load Overlay to obtain the research object area AREA i The power demand load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x Step S5.2, using formula (2) in units of weeks, obtain the research area AREA i The maximum power demand load on a weekly basis in the future design operating condition year x And determine the maximum weekly power demand load Corresponding time period Specifically, the research area AREA i The maximum power demand load period in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x; in: Representative research area AREA i The weekly maximum power demand load in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x; Representative research area AREA i The power demand load in each period t in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x The maximum value of Representative research area AREA i The maximum value of the domestic power load in each period t in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x; α and β represent the research object area AREA i The load reserve factor and accident reserve factor in the future design operating condition year x; Step S5.3, for the research object area AREA i Analyze the weekly power profit and loss under each meteorological annual operating condition k; Step S5.4, for the research object area AREA i The weekly peak load regulation profit and loss under each meteorological annual operating condition k is analyzed; Step S5.5, for the research object area AREA i Analyze the annual electricity profit and loss under each meteorological annual operating condition k; Step S6, sorting the obtained w electric power profit and loss values ​​in order from the most profitable to the most deficient, and assigning the frequency characteristic value f of the electric power profit and loss value ranked at the xth position to be: f=x / w; With the frequency characteristic value as the horizontal coordinate and the power profit and loss value as the vertical coordinate, the obtained w power profit and loss values ​​are represented in the coordinate system and fitted into a frequency characteristic curve; the frequency characteristic curve reflects the power profit and loss characteristics of the basic power generation parameters of each research object area planned relative to the planned power load characteristics in the future design operating year x, and further reflects the power demand space of the planning scheme.

2. According to claim 1, a method for analyzing the frequency of electric power surplus and deficit based on multi-regional long-term new energy power is characterized in that: In step S2, firstly, the domestic power load, external power load and incoming power load of each sub-study area are planned in each time period t; Then, the domestic power loads of all sub-study areas at each time period t are summed up to obtain the domestic power loads of the overall study area at each time period t; The power transmission load of each sub-study area at each time period t is summed up to obtain the power transmission load of each time period t of the overall study area; The incoming power load of all sub-study areas at each time period t is summed up to obtain the incoming power load of the entire study area at each time period t.

3. According to claim 1, a method for analyzing the frequency of electric power surplus and deficit based on multi-regional long-term new energy power is characterized in that: In step S3, the basic power source normal includes thermal power, gas power, nuclear power, hydropower, pumped storage and new storage; therefore, the planning obtains each research object area AREA i The thermal power generation capacity p of coal-fired power in each period t in the future design operating condition year x i_thermal,t 、The power that can be generated by gas-fired power generation i_gas,t 、Nuclear power can generate power p i_nuclear,t 、The power that hydropower can generate i_hydro,t 、Pumped & storage power generation capacity p i_pumped&storage,t and the power generated by the new storage i_newstorage,t ; Among them: The thermal power generation capacity of coal-fired power p i_thermal,t 、The power that can be generated by gas-fired power generation i_gas,t and nuclear power can generate power p i_nuclear,t , are all the power that can be generated after considering the obstruction; the power that can be generated by hydropower is p i_hydro,t , which is the expected power generation capacity of hydropower.

4. According to claim 3, a method for analyzing the frequency of electric power surplus and deficit based on multi-regional long-term new energy power is characterized in that: In step S5, the research object area AREA i The power profit and loss results at different time scales in the future design operating condition year x, including week-by-week power profit and loss results, week-by-week peak load profit and loss results, and year-by-year power profit and loss results.

5. According to claim 1, a method for analyzing the frequency of electric power surplus and deficit based on multi-regional long-time series new energy power is characterized in that: Step S5.3 is specifically as follows: For each meteorological year condition k, a week-by-week analysis is performed; therefore, for the jth week of each meteorological year condition k, the following analysis is performed: Step S5.3.1, for the research object area AREA i Wind power generation power p in each period t of the jth week under the meteorological annual condition k i_wind,t Analyze and obtain the research object area AREA i The period of week j under the meteorological condition k Corresponding wind power generation AREA i Photovoltaic power generation p in each period t of the jth week under the meteorological annual condition k i_solar,t Analyze and obtain the research object area AREA i The period of week j under the meteorological condition k Corresponding photovoltaic power generation Step S5.3.2, for the research object area AREA i The incoming power load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x Analyze and obtain the research object area AREA i In the period of week j Corresponding incoming power load According to the basic power supply normal planned in step S3, formula (3) is used to calculate the power p that can be generated in each time period t in the future design operating condition year x. i_normal,t , and obtain the power p that can be generated in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x i_normal,j : p i_normal,j =p i_thermal,j +p i_gas,j +p i_nuclear,j +p i_hydro,j +p i_pumped&storage,j +p i_new storage,j (3) Where: p i_thermal,j 、p i_gas,j 、p i_nuclear,j 、p i_hydro,j 、p i_pumped&storage,j and p i_new storage,j , respectively represent the weekly power generation capacity of thermal, gas, nuclear, hydro, pumped storage and new energy storage in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x; Step S5.3.3, using formula (4), obtain the research object area AREA i Under the influence of the weather in the jth week of the meteorological condition k in the future design operating condition year x, the weekly power profit and loss value in the jth week of the meteorological condition k is This enables weekly electricity profit and loss analysis.

6. According to claim 1, a method for analyzing the frequency of electric power surplus and deficit based on multi-regional long-term new energy power is characterized in that: Step S5.4 is specifically as follows: Step S5.4.1, using formula (5), obtain the area AREA of each research object i Net power load in each period t in the future design operating year x Step S5.4.2: In units of days, the research area AREA i Daily net power load in the future design operating year x Subtract the maximum and minimum values ​​to get the daily net load difference, that is, the daily peak-to-valley difference; Step S5.4.3, analyze the research object area AREA in units of weeks i The maximum value of the peak-to-valley difference of each week in the future design operating condition year x is obtained Step S5.4.4, using formula (6), obtain the research object area AREA i The maximum peak load demand in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x in: Representative research area AREA i The maximum weekly peak load demand in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x; Representative research area AREA i The maximum power demand load in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x; Step S5.4.5, using formula (7), obtain the research object area AREA i Weekly adjustable peak capacity in week j of future design operating condition year x Where: p thermal,min 、p gas,min 、p nuclear,min and p hydro,min , which are the minimum operating capacities of thermal power, gas power, nuclear power and hydro power respectively; For pumped storage and new storage, they have the ability to change from full-power pumping state to full-power power generation state, so the adjustable peak capacity is 200% of full power generation power; Step S5.4.6, using formula (8), obtain the research object area AREA i Weekly peak load regulation profit and loss value in the jth week of the future design operating condition year x This enables weekly peak-shaving profit and loss analysis.

7. According to claim 1, a method for analyzing the frequency of electric power surplus and deficit based on multi-regional long-term new energy power is characterized in that: Step S5.5 is specifically as follows: Step S5.5.1, according to the research object area AREA i Domestic power demand load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x Get the research area AREA i Domestic electricity demand in the future design operating condition year x According to the research area AREA i The power transmission load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x Get the research area AREA i The amount of electricity delivered in the future design operating condition year x Domestic electricity demand and power delivered Sum and get the research object area AREA i The power demand in the future design operating condition year x Step S5.5.2, obtain the research object area AREA i The annual power generation capacity of thermal power in the future design operating condition year x is Q thermal 、The annual power generation capacity of gas-fired power plant is Q gas 、Nuclear power annual power generation Q nuclear 、The annual power generation of hydropower is Q hydro ; According to the research area AREA i The incoming power load in each period t in the future design operating condition year x Get the research area AREA i The annual power input Q in the future design operating condition year x incom ; According to the research area AREA i Wind power generation power p in each time period t under each meteorological annual condition k i_wind,t , get the research object area AREA i Annual wind power generation under each meteorological annual operating condition k According to the research area AREA i Photovoltaic power generation p in each time period t under each meteorological annual condition k i_solar,t , get the research object area AREA i Annual photovoltaic power generation under each meteorological annual operating condition k Get the research area AREA i Pumped storage pumped&storage Annual power consumption of pumped storage under each meteorological annual operating condition k Get the research area AREA i The annual power consumption of new energy storage under each meteorological annual operating condition k Step S5.5.3, using formula (9), obtain the research object area AREA i Annual electricity surplus and deficit value under each meteorological annual operating condition k Since each meteorological annual operating condition k has a corresponding annual electricity profit and loss value This enables year-by-year electricity profit and loss analysis.

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