Producing fluid profile water breakthrough characteristic prediction method and device based on main control factor analysis, medium and equipment

Abstract

The invention relates to a method, a device, a medium and equipment for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a liquid production profile based on main control factor analysis, and the method comprises the following steps: setting basic characteristic parameters of a production well based on an overall oil reservoir model, and determining the variation range of water invasion influence factors; on the basis of the change range of the water invasion influence factors, through multi-factor reservoir numerical simulation, obtaining cumulative oil production and cumulative water production characteristics of the water invasion influence factors, according to the cumulative oil production and cumulative water production characteristics, obtaining influence coefficients of water invasion main control factors, and determining the water invasion main control factors; establishing a relationship between the water invasion risk coefficient and the water invasion main control factor on the basis of the water invasion main control factor; on the basis of the relation between the water invasion risk coefficient and the water invasion main control factors, the water invasion main control factors of the production well are extracted, the water invasion risk coefficient is obtained, and the water invasion risk, position and mode of the production well are predicted. According to the method, the main control factors are utilized to predict the water breakthrough characteristics of the liquid production profile, and the prediction precision is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of oilfield development, and in particular to a method, device, medium and equipment for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production liquid profile based on analysis of main control factors. Background Art

[0002] Due to the difference in oil-water seepage during the development of horizontal wells, residual oil is easily produced in a certain section of the horizontal well, resulting in a problem of reduced recovery rate. To address the above problem, a completion water control method with a packer and water control valve is generally used to improve the production profile, so that water is uniformly seen in the entire horizontal well. However, the completion water control method with uniform valve arrangement can only alleviate the unevenness of the production profile to a certain extent, and the effect of water control and oil increase is poor. The completion water control method with a non-uniform arrangement of valves in the high-production and high-water-content section can significantly improve the water control and oil increase effect of the horizontal well, but this requires an effective prediction of the water-seepage characteristics of the horizontal well production profile. At present, the existing practice on site is to directly use the near-well high-permeability section as the high-production and high-water-content section based on the relevant near-well logging data. This is effective for predicting the production profile, but the prediction error for the water-seepage characteristics is large.

[0003] If the water breakthrough characteristics of the horizontal well production profile can be comprehensively predicted based on the main controlling factors of water breakthrough characteristics, and the appropriate non-uniform valve arrangement scheme can be determined to effectively adjust the horizontal well production profile, the problem of reduced recovery rate caused by residual oil during production can be alleviated or solved. Therefore, it is necessary to determine a method for predicting the water breakthrough characteristics of the production profile based on the analysis of the main controlling factors. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the above problems, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method, device, medium and equipment for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of liquid production profile based on main controlling factor analysis, so as to realize the prediction of water breakthrough characteristics of liquid production profile by using main controlling factors and improve the prediction accuracy.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0006] The method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile based on main controlling factor analysis of the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0007] Based on the overall reservoir model, set the basic characteristic parameters of the production wells and determine the range of water invasion influencing factors;

[0008] Based on the variation range of water invasion influencing factors, the cumulative oil and water production characteristics of water invasion influencing factors are obtained through multi-factor reservoir numerical simulation. Based on the cumulative oil and water production characteristics, the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water invasion is obtained to determine the main controlling factor of water invasion.

[0009] On the basis of the main controlling factors of water intrusion, the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the main controlling factors of water intrusion is established;

[0010] Based on the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the main controlling factors of water intrusion, the main controlling factors of water intrusion in the production wells are extracted to obtain the water intrusion risk coefficient, and the water intrusion risk, location and mode of the production wells are predicted.

[0011] In the method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile, preferably, the water invasion influencing factors include: horizontal distribution characteristics of the wellbore, vertical distribution characteristics of the wellbore, permeability distribution characteristics and production characteristics;

[0012] Among them, the horizontal distribution characteristics of wellbore include water inflow direction and edge water distance;

[0013] The vertical distribution characteristics of the wellbore include the relative height of the heel and toe and the height of the horizontal well section;

[0014] Permeability distribution characteristics include permeability range and permeability width;

[0015] Production characteristics include fixed oil-limited liquid and fixed liquid production.

[0016] In the method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile, preferably, the step of determining the main controlling factors of water intrusion comprises the following specific steps:

[0017] Based on the set basic characteristic parameters of production wells, the single water invasion influencing factor parameter is changed, and the characteristics of cumulative oil and water production are simulated by multi-factor reservoir numerical simulation to obtain the average water invasion main controlling factor influencing coefficient under different water cuts, and determine the water invasion main controlling factor through the range of the average water invasion main controlling factor influencing coefficient;

[0018] Among them, the influence coefficient of the average water intrusion main controlling factor is:

[0019]

[0020] In the formula, is the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of average water intrusion; i is the water content; ε i It represents the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water intrusion when the moisture content is i; n is the number of moisture content groups.

[0021] In the method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile, preferably, the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water invasion is defined as the ratio of the maximum water-oil ratio of the cumulative oil production to the average water-oil ratio under different parameter values ​​of a single water invasion influencing factor at the same water cut, specifically as follows:

[0022]

[0023] In the formula, ε i It represents the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water intrusion when the moisture content is i; It represents the maximum water-oil ratio of the cumulative oil production with different parameter values ​​of a single water invasion factor when the water cut is i; represents the average water-oil ratio of the cumulative oil production with different parameter values ​​of a single water invasion influencing factor when the water content is i; j represents the parameter value of a single water invasion influencing factor; It represents the water-oil ratio of the cumulative oil production when the single water invasion influencing factor parameter value is j under the water content i; m is the number of single water invasion influencing factor parameter values ​​set.

[0024] In the method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile, preferably, the main controlling factors of water intrusion include wellbore horizontal distribution characteristics and permeability distribution characteristics. Based on the characteristics of the main controlling factors of water intrusion, the expression for establishing the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the main controlling factors of water intrusion is:

[0025]

[0026] Where A is the water intrusion risk coefficient; is the dimensionless average water-oil ratio of the kth main controlling factor of water invasion under the horizontal distribution characteristics of the wellbore; is the dimensionless average water-oil ratio of the lth main controlling factor of water invasion under the permeability distribution characteristics; “±” indicates the operation sign determined according to the water breakthrough characteristics.

[0027] The present invention also provides a device for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile based on analysis of main control factors, comprising:

[0028] The first processing unit is used to set basic characteristic parameters of the production well based on the overall reservoir model and determine the variation range of water invasion influencing factors;

[0029] The second processing unit is used to obtain the cumulative oil production and cumulative water production characteristics of the water invasion influencing factors based on the variation range of the water invasion influencing factors through multi-factor reservoir numerical simulation, and obtain the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water invasion according to the cumulative oil production and cumulative water production characteristics, and determine the main controlling factor of water invasion;

[0030] The third processing unit is used to establish the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the water intrusion main controlling factor based on the water intrusion main controlling factor;

[0031] The fourth processing unit is used to extract the main controlling factors of water intrusion of the production wells based on the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the main controlling factors of water intrusion, obtain the water intrusion risk coefficient, and predict the water intrusion risk, location and mode of the production wells.

[0032] The present invention also provides a computer storage medium on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile based on analysis of main controlling factors are implemented.

[0033] The present invention also provides a computer device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile based on analysis of main controlling factors are implemented.

[0034] The present invention adopts the above technical solution, which has the following advantages:

[0035] (1) It is possible to determine the main controlling factors of water intrusion by using the influence coefficient of the main controlling factors of water intrusion, thereby improving the accuracy of predicting the water breakthrough characteristics of the production well production profile;

[0036] (2) Based on the extracted parameter values ​​of the main controlling factors of water intrusion in production wells, the water intrusion risk coefficient of the production wells can be obtained, thereby accurately predicting the water intrusion risk, location and pattern of the production wells, providing a reference for the production plan of the production wells. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0037] Various other advantages and benefits will become apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art by reading the following detailed description of the preferred embodiment.The drawings are only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments and are not to be construed as limiting the invention.

[0038] Throughout the drawings, the same reference numerals are used to denote the same components. In the drawings:

[0039] Figure 1 is a flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention;

[0040] Figure 2 It is a characteristic diagram of the liquid production profile and water content profile of the A02H production well in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0041] Figure 3 It is a characteristic diagram of the liquid production profile and water content profile of the A03H production well in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0042] Figure 4 It is a characteristic diagram of the liquid production profile and water content profile of the A04H production well in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0043] Figure 5 It is a characteristic diagram of the liquid production profile and water content profile of the A05H production well in the embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0044] The exemplary embodiments of the present invention will be described in more detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Although the exemplary embodiments of the present invention are shown in the accompanying drawings, it should be understood that the present invention can be implemented in various forms and should not be limited by the embodiments described herein. On the contrary, these embodiments are provided in order to enable a more thorough understanding of the present invention and to fully convey the scope of the present invention to those skilled in the art.

[0045] The present invention provides a method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production fluid profile based on main controlling factor analysis, which can determine the main controlling factors of water invasion by using the influence coefficients of the main controlling factors of water invasion, thereby improving the accuracy of predicting water breakthrough characteristics of the production fluid profile of a production well; based on the extracted parameter values ​​of the main controlling factors of water invasion of the production well, the water invasion risk coefficient of the production well can be obtained, thereby accurately predicting the water invasion risk, location and mode of the production well, and providing a reference for the exploitation plan of the production well.

[0046] like Figure 1 As shown, the method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile based on main controlling factor analysis provided by the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0047] S1. Based on the overall reservoir model, set the basic characteristic parameters of the production wells and determine the range of water invasion influencing factors;

[0048] S2. Based on the variation range of water invasion influencing factors, the cumulative oil and water production characteristics of water invasion influencing factors are obtained through multi-factor reservoir numerical simulation. Based on the cumulative oil and water production characteristics, the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water invasion is obtained to determine the main controlling factor of water invasion;

[0049] S3. On the basis of the main controlling factors of water intrusion, the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the main controlling factors of water intrusion is established;

[0050] S4. Based on the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the main controlling factors of water intrusion, the main controlling factors of water intrusion in the production wells are extracted to obtain the water intrusion risk coefficient, and the water intrusion risk, location and pattern of the production wells are predicted.

[0051] In the above embodiment, preferably, the water invasion influencing factors include: wellbore horizontal distribution characteristics, wellbore vertical distribution characteristics, permeability distribution characteristics and production characteristics;

[0052] Among them, the horizontal distribution characteristics of wellbore include water inflow direction and edge water distance;

[0053] The vertical distribution characteristics of the wellbore include the relative height of the heel and toe and the height of the horizontal well section;

[0054] Permeability distribution characteristics include permeability range and permeability width;

[0055] Production characteristics include fixed oil-limited liquid and fixed liquid production.

[0056] In the above embodiment, preferably, the determining of the main controlling factor of water intrusion comprises the following specific steps:

[0057] Based on the set basic characteristic parameters of production wells, the single water invasion influencing factor parameter is changed, and the characteristics of cumulative oil and water production are simulated by multi-factor reservoir numerical simulation to obtain the average water invasion main controlling factor influencing coefficient under different water cuts, and determine the water invasion main controlling factor through the range of the average water invasion main controlling factor influencing coefficient;

[0058] Among them, the influence coefficient of the average water intrusion main controlling factor is:

[0059]

[0060] In the formula, is the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of average water intrusion; i is the water content; ε i It represents the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water intrusion when the moisture content is i; n is the number of moisture content groups.

[0061] In the above embodiment, preferably, the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water invasion is defined as the ratio of the maximum water-oil ratio of the cumulative oil production to the average water-oil ratio under different parameter values ​​of a single water invasion influencing factor at the same water cut, specifically as follows:

[0062]

[0063] In the formula, ε i It represents the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water intrusion when the moisture content is i; It represents the maximum water-oil ratio of the cumulative oil production with different parameter values ​​of a single water invasion factor when the water cut is i; represents the average water-oil ratio of the cumulative oil production with different parameter values ​​of a single water invasion influencing factor when the water content is i; j represents the parameter value of a single water invasion influencing factor; It represents the water-oil ratio of the cumulative oil production when the single water invasion influencing factor parameter value is j under the water content i; m is the number of single water invasion influencing factor parameter values ​​set.

[0064] In the above embodiment, preferably, the determined main controlling factors of water intrusion include wellbore horizontal distribution characteristics and permeability distribution characteristics. Based on the characteristics of the main controlling factors of water intrusion, the expression for establishing the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the main controlling factors of water intrusion is:

[0065]

[0066] Where A is the water intrusion risk coefficient; is the dimensionless average water-oil ratio of the kth main controlling factor of water invasion under the horizontal distribution characteristics of the wellbore; is the dimensionless average water-oil ratio of the lth main controlling factor of water invasion under the permeability distribution characteristics; “±” indicates the operation sign determined according to the water breakthrough characteristics.

[0067] In the following, the A oil field is used as an example for explanation. In the structure of the A oil field, the fault anticline is controlled by the northeast and north-south strike-slip faults, with more than 180 faults developed and 22 blocks divided in plane. The reservoir has the characteristics of long oil-bearing well section (500m), large oil reservoir thickness (105m), large number of small layers (47) and thin layer development. It has been in production for more than 20 years, and the oil-water relationship of each layer is relatively complex.

[0068] Embodiment 1:

[0069] An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile based on main controlling factor analysis, comprising the following steps:

[0070] S1. Based on the above-mentioned A oil field, a target area is selected and a horizontal well A01H is set; wherein the basic characteristic parameters of A01H are shown in Table 1.

[0071] Table 1 Basic characteristic parameters of A01H

[0072]

[0073] Based on the basic characteristic parameters of the A01H horizontal well and the range of the parameters of the water invasion influencing factors, a parameter change plan for the water invasion influencing factors was formulated; the water invasion influencing factors include: wellbore horizontal distribution characteristics, wellbore vertical distribution characteristics, permeability distribution characteristics, and production characteristics, as shown in Table 2.

[0074] Table 2 Change scheme of water intrusion main control influencing factors

[0075]

[0076] S2. Taking the basic characteristic parameters of the A01H horizontal well in Table 1 as the benchmark, according to the setting of the water invasion influencing factor parameters in Table 2, change the value of one water invasion influencing factor parameter to perform multi-factor reservoir numerical simulation, and obtain the characteristic data of the cumulative oil production and cumulative water production under the water invasion influencing factor. According to the characteristics of the cumulative oil production and cumulative water production obtained, take a group of water-oil ratio data at every 10% water cut, obtain the maximum water-oil ratio and average water-oil ratio under different water cuts, calculate the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water invasion under each group of water cuts, and then obtain the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water invasion, as follows:

[0077]

[0078] In the formula, ε i is the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water intrusion under water content i; is the maximum water-oil ratio of cumulative oil production under water content i; is the average water-oil ratio of the cumulative oil production under water content i; j is the parameter value of a single water invasion factor; is the water-oil ratio of the cumulative oil production when the parameter value of the single water invasion influencing factor is j under water content i; m is the number of parameter values ​​of the single water invasion influencing factor; taking the single water invasion influencing factor as the water inflow direction as an example, j = 0, 10, ..., 60, m = 7; is the average water intrusion main controlling factor influence coefficient; i is the water content; n is the number of water content groups.

[0079] Based on the above method, the average water intrusion main controlling factor influence coefficients of each water intrusion influencing factor are obtained as shown in Table 3.

[0080] Table 3 Average water intrusion main controlling factor influence coefficients of various water intrusion influencing factors

[0081]

[0082] when When the water influencing factor is determined to be the main controlling factor of water intrusion, the water inflow direction, edge water distance in the horizontal distribution characteristics of the wellbore and the permeability extreme difference and permeability width in the permeability distribution characteristics are determined to be the main controlling factors of water intrusion.

[0083] According to the interval of the water intrusion influence coefficient, determine the influence degree of the factor on the water intrusion characteristics, so as to determine whether it is the main controlling factor of water intrusion, as follows:

[0084] S3. According to the setting of parameters in Table 2, the parameter values ​​of the main controlling factors of water invasion are changed. Through multi-factor reservoir numerical simulation, the average water-oil ratio under each parameter value of the main controlling factors of water invasion is obtained, and the average water-oil ratio of the middle value is taken as the benchmark value. The dimensionless quantified average water-oil ratio is obtained by the ratio of the average water-oil ratio to the benchmark value. Each dimensionless quantified average water-oil ratio is fitted with the parameter value of the main controlling factors of water invasion, and the relationship expression between the dimensionless quantified average water-oil ratio and the parameter value of the main controlling factors of water invasion is obtained, as shown in Table 4.

[0085] Table 4 Relationship between dimensionless average water-oil ratio and parameter values ​​of main controlling factors of water intrusion

[0086] Main controlling factors of water intrusion expression Distance to water <![CDATA[y=41.532e 0.028x ]]> Water direction <![CDATA[y=0.0012x 2 -0.009x+0.1236]]> Very poor permeability <h2 style=";text-align:left;direction:ltr"><![CDATA[y=0.0275x <h2 style=";text-align:left;direction:ltr"> 2 <h2 style=";text-align:left;direction:ltr"> +0.2473x+0.0194]]><h2 style=";text-align:left;direction:ltr"> Permeability Width <![CDATA[y=0.00001x 2 +0.0015x+0.8964]]>

[0087] Based on the above fitting relationship, the parameter values ​​of the main controlling factors of water intrusion in each production well are obtained, thereby obtaining the water intrusion risk coefficient and predicting the water intrusion risk, location and mode of new wells. The expression of the water intrusion risk coefficient is as follows:

[0088]

[0089] Where A is the water intrusion risk coefficient, is the dimensionless average water-oil ratio of the kth main controlling factor of water invasion under the horizontal distribution characteristics of the wellbore, is the dimensionless average water-oil ratio of the lth main controlling factor of water invasion under the permeability distribution characteristics; “±” means the operation sign is determined according to the water breakthrough characteristics. When the production well has one water breakthrough point, the “+” operation sign is used; when the production well has two water breakthrough points, the “-” operation sign is used.

[0090] In this embodiment, the permeability width, the permeability extreme difference, the edge water distance and the water inflow direction are the main controlling factors of water invasion, the permeability distribution characteristics are the related water invasion main controlling factors, and the horizontal distribution characteristics of the wellbore are the related water invasion main controlling factors, then the water invasion risk coefficient = (the dimensionless average water-oil ratio of the permeability width × the dimensionless average water-oil ratio of the permeability extreme difference) ± (the dimensionless average water-oil ratio of the edge water distance × the dimensionless average water-oil ratio of the water inflow direction).

[0091] S4. Based on the method in the above steps, extract the parameter values ​​of the main controlling factors of water intrusion of the production wells to be analyzed, obtain the water intrusion risk coefficient of the production wells, and predict the water intrusion risk, location and mode of the new wells in combination with the characteristics of the main controlling factors of water intrusion.

[0092] Among them, the larger the water invasion coefficient, the more serious the water invasion of the horizontal well, and the earlier the water breakthrough.

[0093] The determination of water invasion positions and water penetration points is based on the position characteristics and permeability characteristics of the horizontal well sections. For the edge water reservoir of this embodiment, when the permeability is uniform, water is first seen in the horizontal well section near the water; when the horizontal well sections are at the same distance from the water, water is first seen in the horizontal well section where the high permeability / high permeability channel is located; when the two are in the same horizontal well section, water is first seen in the horizontal section; when the two are in different horizontal well sections, it is determined that the well has two water penetration points / water invasion positions.

[0094] This example analyzes the water intrusion risk, location and pattern of the existing A02H, A03H, A04H and A05H wells.

[0095] Among them, the permeability of A02H well is 1500-3000mD, there are high permeability channels in the middle and toe sections of the well, the angle of the incoming water direction is 0°, the permeability width is greater than 150m, and there is a permeability range of about 2; before the well was opened, the oil-water interface was 8m away from the well heel section, 4m in the middle section, and 2.6m away from the toe end.

[0096] The permeability of the A03H well is 2000-4000mD, the permeability of the heel section is higher, the angle of the water inflow direction is 70°, and there is a high-permeability channel with a permeability width of 50m and a permeability range of 2 in the water inflow direction of the toe end; before the well was opened, the oil-water interface was 420m away from the heel section, 320m in the middle section, and 240m away from the toe end.

[0097] The permeability of A04H well is 2000-4000mD, the permeability of the toe is relatively high, the water inflow angle is above 80°, and there is no obvious high permeability channel. Before the well was opened, the oil-water interface was 130m away from the well heel, 40m in the middle section, and 15m away from the toe.

[0098] The permeability of A05H well is 500-1000mD, the permeability is higher in the middle section of the toe, the water inflow direction angle is 20°, and there is a high permeability channel with a width of 100m and a range of 2 in the heel section. Before the well was opened, the oil-water interface was 120m away from the heel section, 170m away from the middle section, and 210m away from the toe.

[0099] Based on the above-mentioned wellbore horizontal distribution characteristics and permeability distribution characteristics, it can be seen that A02H, A03H, and A04H wells have one water point, and A05H well has two water points. Therefore, the "+" operator is used when calculating the water invasion risk coefficient of A02H, A03H, and A04H wells, while the "-" operator is used when calculating the water invasion risk coefficient of A05H well.

[0100] The water intrusion risk coefficient is shown in Table 5.

[0101] Table 5 Water intrusion risk coefficients for each production well

[0102]

[0103] In summary, the edge water distance of A02H is very short, it is almost flooded, the permeability of the middle section toe end is high, the production section is parallel to the edge water, and because the water invasion coefficient of the production well is large, it is predicted that the well will not have a waterless production period (the risk of water invasion is very high), the liquid production at the middle section toe end is large, the water content increases rapidly, and the water control potential is large.

[0104] like Figure 2 As shown in the figure, the characteristics of the well fluid production profile and water content profile after the start of production in the numerical simulation of A02H show that there is no water-free oil production period, the daily liquid production at the toe end of the middle section is large and water is seen first, which is consistent with the prediction of the main controlling factors.

[0105] A03H is far from water as a whole, has a high toe permeability, is close to water, has a large angle of incoming water, and has a very small water invasion risk coefficient. Therefore, it is predicted that the well will have a long waterless production period (low water invasion risk), a large toe liquid production, and will see water first.

[0106] like Figure 3 As shown in the figure, the characteristics of the well fluid production profile and water content profile after the start of production in the numerical simulation of A03H show that the A03H production well has a long waterless production period, a high daily liquid production in the toe section, and water is seen locally in the toe section, which is consistent with the prediction of the main controlling factors.

[0107] The toe of A04H is close to water, the water inflow direction has a large angle, there is no obvious high permeability channel, and the water invasion risk coefficient is very high. Therefore, it is predicted that the well will have no low water content oil production period (the water invasion risk is very high), the toe liquid production is large, and water is seen first.

[0108] like Figure 4 As shown in the figure, the characteristics of the well fluid production profile and water content profile after the start of production in the numerical simulation of A04H show that the water-free oil production period is short, the daily liquid production in the toe section is high, and water is seen locally in the toe section, which is consistent with the prediction of the main controlling factors.

[0109] A05H is far away from water as a whole, with the heel end close to water, the permeability of the middle section of the toe end is higher, the angle of water inflow is larger, and the water invasion coefficient is relatively small. Therefore, it is predicted that the well will have a long waterless production period (lower water invasion risk), a large liquid production at the heel end, a high permeability near the middle section of the toe end, and water is seen first in both places.

[0110] like Figure 5 As shown in the figure, the characteristics of the well fluid production profile and water content profile after the start of production in the numerical simulation of A05H show that the oil production period is long, the daily liquid production in the heel section is high, and water is seen first in the middle section of the heel end and toe end, which is basically consistent with the prediction of the main controlling factors.

[0111] Therefore, the present invention adopts the above-mentioned method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of the production profile based on the analysis of the main controlling factors to realize the prediction of water breakthrough characteristics of the production profile of the production well, which can improve the prediction efficiency and accuracy; at the same time, it can realize the assessment of the water intrusion risk of the production well and provide a reference for the water control plan in the production process of the production well.

[0112] Embodiment 2:

[0113] The present invention also provides a device for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile based on analysis of main control factors, comprising:

[0114] The first processing unit is used to set basic characteristic parameters of the production well based on the overall reservoir model and determine the variation range of water invasion influencing factors;

[0115] The second processing unit is used to obtain the cumulative oil production and cumulative water production characteristics of the water invasion influencing factors based on the variation range of the water invasion influencing factors through multi-factor reservoir numerical simulation, and obtain the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water invasion according to the cumulative oil production and cumulative water production characteristics, and determine the main controlling factor of water invasion;

[0116] The third processing unit is used to establish the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the main controlling factors of water intrusion on the basis of the main controlling factors of water intrusion; the fourth processing unit is used to extract the main controlling factors of water intrusion of production wells on the basis of the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the main controlling factors of water intrusion, obtain the water intrusion risk coefficient, and predict the water intrusion risk, location and mode of the production wells.

[0117] Embodiment 3:

[0118] The present invention also provides a computer storage medium on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile based on analysis of main controlling factors are implemented.

[0119] Embodiment 4:

[0120] The present invention also provides a computer device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile based on analysis of main controlling factors are implemented.

[0121] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of production profile based on analysis of main controlling factors, It is characterized in that The following steps are involved: Based on the overall reservoir model, set the basic characteristic parameters of the production wells and determine the range of water invasion influencing factors; Based on the variation range of water invasion influencing factors, the cumulative oil and water production characteristics of water invasion influencing factors are obtained through multi-factor reservoir numerical simulation. Based on the cumulative oil and water production characteristics, the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water invasion is obtained to determine the main controlling factor of water invasion. On the basis of the main controlling factors of water intrusion, the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the main controlling factors of water intrusion is established; Based on the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the main controlling factors of water intrusion, the main controlling factors of water intrusion in the production wells are extracted to obtain the water intrusion risk coefficient, and the water intrusion risk, location and mode of the production wells are predicted.

2. The method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile according to claim 1, It is characterized in that The factors affecting water invasion include: horizontal distribution characteristics of wellbore, vertical distribution characteristics of wellbore, permeability distribution characteristics and production characteristics; Among them, the horizontal distribution characteristics of wellbore include water inflow direction and edge water distance; The vertical distribution characteristics of the wellbore include the relative height of the heel and toe and the height of the horizontal well section; Permeability distribution characteristics include permeability extreme difference and permeability width; Production characteristics include fixed oil-limited liquid and fixed liquid production.

3. The method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile according to claim 1, It is characterized in that The specific steps of determining the main controlling factors of water intrusion are as follows: Based on the set basic characteristic parameters of production wells, the single water invasion influencing factor parameter is changed, and the characteristics of cumulative oil and water production are simulated by multi-factor reservoir numerical simulation to obtain the average water invasion main controlling factor influencing coefficient under different water cuts, and determine the water invasion main controlling factor through the range of the average water invasion main controlling factor influencing coefficient; Among them, the average water intrusion main control factor influence coefficient is: In the formula, is the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of average water intrusion; i is the water content; ε i It represents the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water intrusion when the moisture content is i; n is the number of moisture content groups.

4. The method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile according to claim 3, It is characterized in that The influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water invasion is defined as the ratio of the maximum water-oil ratio of the cumulative oil production to the average water-oil ratio under different parameter values ​​of a single water invasion influencing factor at the same water cut, as follows: In the formula, ε i It represents the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water intrusion when the moisture content is i; It represents the maximum water-oil ratio of the cumulative oil production with different parameter values ​​of a single water invasion factor when the water cut is i; represents the average water-oil ratio of the cumulative oil production with different parameter values ​​of a single water invasion influencing factor when the water content is i; j represents the parameter value of a single water invasion influencing factor; It represents the water-oil ratio of the cumulative oil production when the single water invasion influencing factor parameter value is j under the water content i; m is the number of single water invasion influencing factor parameter values ​​set.

5. The method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile according to claim 3, It is characterized in that The main controlling factors of water intrusion include the horizontal distribution characteristics of the wellbore and the permeability distribution characteristics. Based on the characteristics of the main controlling factors of water intrusion, the expression for the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the main controlling factors of water intrusion is established as follows: Where A is the water intrusion risk coefficient; is the dimensionless average water-oil ratio of the kth main controlling factor of water invasion under the horizontal distribution characteristics of the wellbore; is the dimensionless average water-oil ratio of the lth main controlling factor of water invasion under the permeability distribution characteristics; "±" indicates the operation sign determined according to the water breakthrough characteristics.

6. A device for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of production profile based on analysis of main control factors, It is characterized in that include: The first processing unit is used to set basic characteristic parameters of the production well based on the overall reservoir model and determine the variation range of water invasion influencing factors; The second processing unit is used to obtain the cumulative oil production and cumulative water production characteristics of the water invasion influencing factors based on the variation range of the water invasion influencing factors through multi-factor reservoir numerical simulation, and obtain the influence coefficient of the main controlling factor of water invasion according to the cumulative oil production and cumulative water production characteristics, and determine the main controlling factor of water invasion; The third processing unit is used to establish the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the water intrusion main controlling factor based on the water intrusion main controlling factor; The fourth processing unit is used to extract the main controlling factors of water intrusion of the production wells based on the relationship between the water intrusion risk coefficient and the main controlling factors of water intrusion, obtain the water intrusion risk coefficient, and predict the water intrusion risk, location and mode of the production wells.

7. A computer storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, It is characterized in that When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile based on main controlling factor analysis described in any one of claims 1-5 are implemented.

8. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, It is characterized in that When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the method for predicting water breakthrough characteristics of a production profile based on analysis of main controlling factors as described in any one of claims 1-5 are implemented.

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