Method and device for issuing flood early warning in advance through upstream and downstream linkage

Abstract

The invention provides a method and device for issuing flood early warning in advance through upstream and downstream linkage, belongs to the field of flood early warning, and is used for solving the problem that flood prediction is low in accuracy and effectiveness in the prior art. The method can reasonably predict the predicted water level data of the target prediction point at the downstream of the river according to the water level monitoring data of the plurality of branch monitoring points at the upstream of the river, analyzes whether the predicted water level data reaches the preset disaster formation water level or not, and generates a flood early warning signal if the predicted water level data reaches the preset disaster formation water level, thereby facilitating the accurate and effective prediction of the flood at the downstream of the river. Therefore, flood early warning can be accurately issued in advance.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the field of flood warning, and more particularly to a method and device for issuing flood warnings in advance through upstream and downstream linkage. Background Art

[0002] In order to avoid serious consequences such as economic losses and casualties caused by floods, accurate early warning of flood disasters is very necessary. Generally speaking, floods are more likely to occur in the lower reaches of rivers, and most of the floods in the lower reaches of rivers come from the upper reaches of rivers. Effective monitoring and analysis of the upper reaches of rivers is conducive to accurate and effective prediction of floods in the lower reaches of rivers, so as to issue flood warnings in a timely and accurate manner in advance, thereby avoiding economic losses and casualties caused by floods. Summary of the invention

[0003] The present application provides a method and device for issuing flood warnings in advance by linking upstream and downstream, which is conducive to accurately and effectively predicting floods in the downstream of a river, and further conducive to issuing flood warnings in advance in a timely and accurate manner.

[0004] In the first aspect, the present application provides a method for upstream and downstream linkage to issue flood warnings in advance. The method comprises: Obtain water level monitoring data from several tributary monitoring points upstream of the river; Substituting the water level monitoring data into the pre-trained water level prediction model to obtain predicted water level data of the target prediction point downstream of the river; Determining whether the predicted water level data is higher than a preset disaster-causing water level; If so, a flood warning signal is generated; The water level prediction model includes: Assume there are n tributary monitoring points, and the water level monitoring data of the i-th tributary monitoring point is , the predicted water level data is ,but ; ; In the formula, For pre-fetched When greater than zero A function that is greater than zero and monotonically increasing.

[0005] By adopting the above technical scheme, it is possible to reasonably predict the predicted water level data of the target prediction point downstream of the river based on the water level monitoring data of several tributary monitoring points upstream of the river, and analyze whether the predicted water level data reaches the preset disaster water level. If reached, a flood warning signal is generated. This method is conducive to accurate and effective prediction of floods downstream of the river, and thus is conducive to accurate and early issuance of flood warnings.

[0006] Further, m=4; ; ; ; ; In the formula, All are pre-fetched constants greater than zero.

[0007] Furthermore, in the water level prediction model, all i from 1 to n are defined as It is a group of calculation coefficients, there are multiple groups of calculation coefficients, one group of calculation coefficients corresponds to a group of independent variable value ranges, and the independent variable value range includes the value range of water level monitoring data of each tributary monitoring point.

[0008] Furthermore, the method further includes: analyzing the change trend of the predicted water level data within a preset time period, and if the predicted water level data continues to increase within the preset time period, generating an early warning signal, wherein the early warning signal also carries a warning time; The method for obtaining the warning time includes: The result of calculating the predicted water level data minus the preset disaster water level is the predicted water level difference; Calculate the water level increase rate per unit time before the predicted water level data reaches the preset disaster-causing water level; Assume that the predicted water level difference is The water level rise rate is , the warning time is t, then , where The preset flood level.

[0009] In a second aspect, the present application provides a device for issuing flood warnings in advance by linking upstream and downstream. The device comprises: An acquisition module is used to obtain water level monitoring data from several tributary monitoring points in the upper reaches of the river; A prediction module, used for substituting the water level monitoring data into a pre-trained water level prediction model to obtain predicted water level data of a target prediction point downstream of the river; and A judgment module is used to judge whether the predicted water level data is higher than a preset disaster-causing water level; if so, a flood warning signal is generated; The prediction module is configured such that the water level prediction model includes: Assume there are n tributary monitoring points, and the water level monitoring data of the i-th tributary monitoring point is , the predicted water level data is ,but ; ; In the formula, For pre-fetched When greater than zero A function that is greater than zero and monotonically increasing.

[0010] Furthermore, the prediction module is further configured as follows: m=4; ; ; ; ; In the formula, All are pre-fetched constants greater than zero.

[0011] Furthermore, the prediction module is further configured as follows: in the water level prediction model, all i from 1 to n are defined It is a group of calculation coefficients, there are multiple groups of calculation coefficients, one group of calculation coefficients corresponds to a group of independent variable value ranges, and the independent variable value range includes the value range of water level monitoring data of each tributary monitoring point.

[0012] Furthermore, the judgment module is further configured to include: an early warning module, which is used to analyze the change trend of the predicted water level data within a preset time period, and if the predicted water level data continues to increase within the preset time period, an early warning signal is generated, and the early warning signal also carries a warning time; The method for obtaining the warning time includes: The result of calculating the predicted water level data minus the preset disaster water level is the predicted water level difference; Calculate the water level increase rate per unit time before the predicted water level data reaches the preset disaster-causing water level; Assume that the predicted water level difference is The water level rise rate is , the warning time is t, then , where The preset flood level.

[0013] In summary, this application at least has the following beneficial effects: A method and device for issuing flood warnings in advance by linking upstream and downstream are provided, which can intelligently and reasonably predict the water level downstream based on the monitored water level upstream, so as to issue flood warnings in advance when the water level downstream reaches a disaster-causing level.

[0014] It should be understood that the contents described in the Summary of the Invention are not intended to limit the key or important features of the embodiments of the present application, nor are they intended to limit the scope of the present application. Other features of the present application will become easily understood through the following description. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0015] The above and other features, advantages and aspects of the embodiments of the present application will become more apparent with reference to the following detailed description in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. In the accompanying drawings, the same or similar reference numerals represent the same or similar elements, wherein: Figure 1 A schematic diagram showing an exemplary operating environment in which embodiments of the present application can be implemented; Figure 2 A flow chart showing a method for upstream and downstream linkage to issue flood warnings in advance in an embodiment of the present application is shown; Figure 3 A block diagram of a device for issuing flood warnings in advance through upstream and downstream linkage in an embodiment of the present application is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0016] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0017] In addition, the term "and / or" in this article is only a description of the association relationship between the associated objects, indicating that there can be three relationships. For example, A and / or B can represent: A exists alone, A and B exist at the same time, and B exists alone. In addition, the character " / " in this article generally indicates that the associated objects before and after are in an "or" relationship.

[0018] The present application provides a method and device for issuing flood warnings in advance by linking upstream and downstream, which can intelligently and reasonably predict the water level downstream based on the monitored water level upstream, so as to issue flood warnings in advance when the water level downstream reaches a disaster-causing level.

[0019] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of an exemplary operating environment in which embodiments of the present application can be implemented is shown.

[0020] Reference Figure 1 The operating environment includes a monitoring terminal 110, a server 120 and an alarm device 130. There are several monitoring terminals 110 (only one is shown in the figure), which are respectively set at several tributary monitoring points in the upper reaches of the river to collect water level monitoring data at the tributary monitoring points. The monitoring terminal 110 may include a water level monitoring sensor, a water gauge or a camera that can calculate and determine the water level by taking an image.

[0021] The alarm device 130 is set at the target prediction point downstream of the river. There may also be multiple alarm devices 130 (only one is shown in the figure), which are distributed in the geographical area that may be affected when a flood occurs at the target prediction point.

[0022] The server 120 is connected to the monitoring terminal 110 and the alarm device 130, receives the water level monitoring data collected by the monitoring terminal 110, and determines whether the target prediction point has reached the disaster water level and a flood will occur based on the water level monitoring data. If so, a flood warning will be issued in advance through the alarm device 130 to protect the lives and property of people in the geographical area where the flood is possible.

[0023] In the first aspect, the present application provides a method for upstream and downstream linkage to issue flood warnings in advance. The method specifically comprises: Figure 1 The server 120 executes in.

[0024] Reference Figure 2 , the method specifically comprises the following steps: S210: Obtain water level monitoring data from several tributary monitoring points upstream of the river.

[0025] The server 120 is connected to the monitoring terminal 110 in a communication manner, and can obtain the water level monitoring data of the tributary monitoring point collected by the monitoring terminal 110 .

[0026] S220: Substituting the water level monitoring data into a pre-trained water level prediction model to obtain predicted water level data of a target prediction point downstream of the river.

[0027] In the method of this step, the water level prediction model specifically includes: Assume there are n tributary monitoring points, and the water level monitoring data of the i-th tributary monitoring point is , the predicted water level data is ,but ; ; In the formula, For pre-fetched When greater than zero A function that is greater than zero and monotonically increasing.

[0028] In the water level prediction model, m=4; ; ; ; ; In the formula, All are pre-fetched constants greater than zero.

[0029] In the water level prediction model, all i from 1 to n are defined It is a group of calculation coefficients, there are multiple groups of calculation coefficients, one group of calculation coefficients corresponds to a group of independent variable value ranges, and the independent variable value range includes the value range of water level monitoring data of each tributary monitoring point.

[0030] It should be understood that the water level prediction model is essentially an interpretable machine learning model, in which the calculation coefficients can be trained using the water level data of tributary monitoring points under the actual conditions of the entire river and the water level data of the downstream target prediction points after a preset interval time. It can also be trained using the water level data of upstream tributary monitoring points obtained from a simulation model of the entire river and the water level data of the downstream target prediction points after a preset interval time. This enables the water level prediction model to more accurately predict the downstream water level data after a preset interval time based on the upstream water level data.

[0031] Of course, considering that one set of calculation coefficients may be difficult to well fit the downstream water level data results under different upstream water level data, multiple sets of calculation coefficients can be trained according to different upstream water level data ranges so that the water level prediction model can better fit the relationship between the upstream water level data and the downstream water level data after a preset interval, that is, to achieve more accurate water level prediction.

[0032] S230: Determine whether the predicted water level data is higher than a preset flood-causing water level.

[0033] The preset disaster water level corresponds to the target prediction point and is pre-stored in the server 120. When the water level at the target prediction point reaches the preset disaster water level, a flood occurs downstream of the river. After the predicted water level data is calculated, the predicted water level data and the preset disaster water level are compared to determine whether a flood will occur downstream of the river.

[0034] S240: If the judgment in step S230 is yes, a flood warning signal is generated.

[0035] In the method of this step, if the predicted water level data of the target prediction point reaches the preset disaster-causing water level, the server 120 generates a flood warning signal for triggering the alarm device 130 to issue a flood warning, so that relevant personnel can make timely preparations for flood response.

[0036] The method further includes: analyzing the change trend of the predicted water level data within a preset time period, and if the predicted water level data continues to increase within the preset time period, generating an early warning signal, wherein the early warning signal also carries a warning time; The method for obtaining the warning time includes: calculating the predicted water level data minus the preset disaster water level as the predicted water level difference; calculating the water level increase rate per unit time before the predicted water level data reaches the preset disaster water level; setting the predicted water level difference as The water level rise rate is , the warning time is t, then , where It is the preset flood water level. The predicted water level difference is greater than 0.

[0037] In summary, this method can predict the water level of the downstream target monitoring point after a preset interval based on the water level of the upstream tributaries, which is conducive to issuing flood warnings in advance and protecting the lives and property of downstream residents.

[0038] It should be noted that, for the aforementioned method embodiments, for the sake of simplicity of description, they are all expressed as a series of action combinations, but those skilled in the art should be aware that the present application is not limited by the described order of actions, because according to the embodiments of the present application, certain steps can be performed in other orders or simultaneously. Secondly, those skilled in the art should also be aware that the embodiments described in the specification are all optional embodiments, and the actions and modules involved are not necessarily required by the present application.

[0039] In the second aspect, the present application provides a device for issuing flood warnings in advance by linking upstream and downstream. The device can be implemented as Figure 1 The server 120 in, or included in Figure 1 In the server 120.

[0040] Figure 3 A block diagram of a device for issuing flood warnings in advance through upstream and downstream linkage in an embodiment of the present application is shown.

[0041] Reference Figure 3 , the device comprises: An acquisition module 310 is used to acquire water level monitoring data of several tributary monitoring points in the upper reaches of the river; A prediction module 320 is used to substitute the water level monitoring data into a pre-trained water level prediction model to obtain predicted water level data of a target prediction point downstream of the river; and The judgment module 330 is used to judge whether the predicted water level data is higher than the preset disaster-causing water level; if so, a flood warning signal is generated; The prediction module 320 is configured such that the water level prediction model includes: Assume there are n tributary monitoring points, and the water level monitoring data of the i-th tributary monitoring point is , the predicted water level data is ,but ; ; In the formula, For pre-fetched When greater than zero A function that is greater than zero and monotonically increasing.

[0042] Furthermore, the prediction module 320 is further configured as follows: m=4; ; ; ; ; In the formula, All are pre-fetched constants greater than zero.

[0043] Furthermore, the prediction module 320 is further configured as follows: in the water level prediction model, all i from 1 to n are defined It is a group of calculation coefficients, there are multiple groups of calculation coefficients, one group of calculation coefficients corresponds to a group of independent variable value ranges, and the independent variable value range includes the value range of water level monitoring data of each tributary monitoring point.

[0044] Furthermore, the judgment module 330 is further configured to include: an early warning module 340, which is used to analyze the change trend of the predicted water level data within a preset time period, and if the predicted water level data continues to increase within the preset time period, an early warning signal is generated, and the early warning signal also carries a warning time; The method for obtaining the warning time includes: The result of calculating the predicted water level data minus the preset disaster water level is the predicted water level difference; Calculate the water level increase rate per unit time before the predicted water level data reaches the preset disaster-causing water level; Assume that the predicted water level difference is The water level rise rate is , the warning time is t, then , where The preset flood level.

[0045] Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that, for the convenience and brevity of description, the specific working process of the described device can refer to the corresponding process in the aforementioned method embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0046] In summary, this application at least has the following beneficial effects: A method and device for issuing flood warnings in advance by linking upstream and downstream are provided, which can intelligently and reasonably predict the water level downstream based on the monitored water level upstream, so as to issue flood warnings in advance when the water level downstream reaches a disaster-causing level.

[0047] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present application and an explanation of the technical principles used. Those skilled in the art should understand that the scope of disclosure involved in the present application is not limited to the technical solution formed by a specific combination of the above technical features, but should also cover other technical solutions formed by any combination of the above technical features or their equivalent features without departing from the aforementioned disclosed concept. For example, the above features are replaced with the technical features with similar functions disclosed in this application (but not limited to) by each other to form a technical solution.

Claims

1. A method for issuing flood warnings in advance by linking upstream and downstream, characterized in that: include: Obtain water level monitoring data from several tributary monitoring points upstream of the river; Substituting the water level monitoring data into the pre-trained water level prediction model to obtain predicted water level data of the target prediction point downstream of the river; Determining whether the predicted water level data is higher than a preset disaster-causing water level; If so, a flood warning signal is generated; The water level prediction model includes: Assume there are n tributary monitoring points, and the water level monitoring data of the i-th tributary monitoring point is , the predicted water level data is ,but ； ； In the formula, For pre-fetched When greater than zero A function that is greater than zero and monotonically increasing.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that m=4； ； ； ； ； In the formula, All are pre-fetched constants greater than zero.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that In the water level prediction model, all i from 1 to n are defined It is a group of calculation coefficients, there are multiple groups of calculation coefficients, one group of calculation coefficients corresponds to a group of independent variable value ranges, and the independent variable value range includes the value range of water level monitoring data of each tributary monitoring point.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that Also includes: Analyze the change trend of the predicted water level data within a preset time period. If the predicted water level data continues to increase within the preset time period, generate an early warning signal, which also carries a warning time; The method for obtaining the warning time includes: The result of calculating the predicted water level data minus the preset disaster water level is the predicted water level difference; Calculate the water level increase rate per unit time before the predicted water level data reaches the preset disaster-causing water level; Assume that the predicted water level difference is The water level rise rate is , the warning time is t, then , where The preset flood level.

5. A device for issuing flood warnings in advance by linking upstream and downstream, characterized in that: include: An acquisition module (310) is used to acquire water level monitoring data of several tributary monitoring points in the upper reaches of the river; A prediction module (320) is used to substitute the water level monitoring data into a pre-trained water level prediction model to obtain predicted water level data of a target prediction point downstream of the river; and A judgment module (330) is used to judge whether the predicted water level data is higher than a preset flood-causing water level; if so, a flood warning signal is generated; The prediction module (320) is configured such that the water level prediction model includes: Assume there are n tributary monitoring points, and the water level monitoring data of the i-th tributary monitoring point is , the predicted water level data is ,but ； ； In the formula, For pre-fetched When greater than zero A function that is greater than zero and monotonically increasing.

6. The device according to claim 5, characterized in that The prediction module (320) is further configured as follows: m=4; ； ； ； ； In the formula, All are pre-fetched constants greater than zero.

7. The device according to claim 6, characterized in that The prediction module (320) is further configured as follows: in the water level prediction model, all i from 1 to n are defined It is a group of calculation coefficients, there are multiple groups of calculation coefficients, one group of calculation coefficients corresponds to a group of independent variable value ranges, and the independent variable value range includes the value range of water level monitoring data of each tributary monitoring point.

8. The device according to claim 7, characterized in that Also includes: An early warning module (340) is used to analyze the change trend of the predicted water level data within a preset time period, and if the predicted water level data continues to increase within the preset time period, an early warning signal is generated, and the early warning signal also carries a warning time; The method for obtaining the warning time includes: The result of calculating the predicted water level data minus the preset disaster water level is the predicted water level difference; Calculate the water level increase rate per unit time before the predicted water level data reaches the preset disaster-causing water level; Assume that the predicted water level difference is The water level rise rate is , the warning time is t, then , where The preset flood level.

Images