Electricity market development potential analysis and evaluation method and system

Abstract

The invention discloses an electricity market development potential analysis and evaluation method and system. The analysis and evaluation method comprises the following steps: evaluating the marketization development degree of a power generation side according to member participation and electric quantity transaction conditions of the power generation side of a power market; evaluating the marketization development degree of power transmission according to the electric quantity transaction condition of the power grid side of the power market; the marketization development degree of the electricity utilization side is evaluated according to member participation and electricity utilization conditions of the electricity utilization side of the electricity market; and determining the weight coefficient of each marketization development degree based on the power transaction characteristics, and comprehensively evaluating the development potential of the power market. According to the method, a multi-dimensional power market power generation potential measurement and calculation index system is constructed from the three aspects of a power generation side, a power transmission link and a power utilization side, main power generation links, power transmission links and power utilization links in the marketization process are comprehensively considered, and the method has the advantages of being comprehensive in evaluation and high in practicability.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of market supervision of electric power market, and in particular to a method and system for analyzing and evaluating the development potential of electric power market. Background Art

[0002] As the process of electricity marketization continues to accelerate, the complexity of the marketization process has gradually increased, making it possible for power generation, transmission, and power consumption to become obstacles to the development of electricity marketization. At present, relevant studies have been carried out to conduct research and system construction for power generation market supervision, but they only focus on how to obtain data and simply process the data with a few and discrete and isolated evaluation indicators. There is no better matching relationship between indicators, and there is a lack of indicator analysis and evaluation. Therefore, it is impossible to propose a more comprehensive evaluation and analysis method, and it is impossible to accurately determine the quality of indicators and the degree of market development and potential on the power generation side. In addition, the existing technology only focuses on analyzing the power generation side, and it is difficult to grasp the overall development level of the marketization of various types of power markets, which in turn affects the grasp of the marketization process of the power market and hinders the subsequent market development. Summary of the invention

[0003] Purpose of the invention: The purpose of the invention is to provide a comprehensive and practical method and system for analyzing and evaluating the development potential of the electricity market.

[0004] Technical solution: The method for analyzing and evaluating the development potential of the electricity market described in the present invention includes the following steps: evaluating the marketization development degree of the power generation side according to the participation of members on the power generation side of the power market and the electricity transaction situation; evaluating the marketization development degree of the power transmission side according to the electricity transaction situation on the power grid side of the power market; evaluating the marketization development degree of the power consumption side according to the participation of members on the power consumption side of the power market and the electricity usage situation; determining the weight coefficient of each marketization development degree based on the power transaction characteristics, and comprehensively evaluating the development potential of the power market.

[0005] Furthermore, the specific formula for evaluating the development potential of the electricity market is as follows:

[0006] Z=α 1 f+α 2 S+α 3 h

[0007] In the formula, Z represents the development potential of the power market; f represents the market development degree of the power generation side; S represents the market development degree of the power transmission side; h represents the market development degree of the power consumption side; α 1 The weight coefficient indicating the market development degree of the power generation side; α 2 The weight coefficient indicating the market development degree of power transmission; α 3 The weight coefficient that represents the degree of market development on the electricity consumption side.

[0008] Furthermore, the members of the power generation side include market power generation subject members and market power generation non-subject members; the market power generation subject members include at least one of thermal power units, gas units, photovoltaic power stations, wind farms, and energy storage stations;

[0009] The members on the electricity consumption side include market electricity user entities and market electricity non-user entities; the market electricity user entities include at least one of large users, industrial and commercial users, production and consumption users, and ordinary users.

[0010] Furthermore, the weight coefficients of member participation and electricity transaction status on the power generation side are determined according to the attributes of the power generation side; the weight coefficients of member participation and electricity transaction status on the power consumption side are determined according to the attributes of the power consumption side.

[0011] Furthermore, the attributes of the power generation side and the power consumption side include market type, type of transaction subject, and market level; the market types include medium- and long-term market, spot market, and ancillary service market; the types of transaction subject include electricity volume and electricity; the market levels include large market, medium market, and small market.

[0012] Furthermore, the participation of members on the power generation side of the electricity market is determined by calculating the market participation and the growth rate of the number of registrations of members on the power generation side;

[0013] The electricity transaction status on the power generation side is determined by calculating the proportion of the traded electricity in the grid-connected electricity.

[0014] Furthermore, the participation of members on the electricity consumption side of the power market is determined by calculating the market participation and the growth rate of the number of registrations of members on the electricity consumption side;

[0015] The electricity usage of the electricity user is determined by calculating the proportion of market electricity consumption in actual electricity consumption.

[0016] Furthermore, the transmission network is divided into a plurality of transmission lines according to the properties of the transmission network, and the electricity transaction status on the transmission line is determined by calculating the proportion of the transmitted electricity in a specific period of time in the transaction electricity of the transmission line on the grid side.

[0017] Furthermore, the properties of the transmission network include voltage level and topology type; the voltage level includes ultra-high voltage, extra-high voltage, and high voltage; the topology type includes multiple grid-connected points to one drop point, one grid-connected point to multiple drop points, and multiple grid-connected points to multiple drop points.

[0018] The power market development potential analysis and evaluation system described in the present invention includes: a power generation side evaluation module, which is used to evaluate the market development degree of the power generation side according to the participation of members on the power generation side of the power market and the electricity transaction situation; a power grid side evaluation module, which is used to evaluate the market development degree of power transmission according to the electricity transaction situation on the power grid side of the power market; an electricity consumption side evaluation module, which is used to evaluate the market development degree of the electricity consumption side according to the participation of members on the electricity consumption side of the power market and the electricity usage situation; and a comprehensive power market evaluation module, which is used to determine the weight coefficient of each market development degree based on the power transaction characteristics and comprehensively evaluate the development potential of the power market.

[0019] Beneficial effects: The present invention has the following significant effects: 1. Comprehensive evaluation: Compared with the prior art, the present invention constructs a multi-dimensional power market power generation potential measurement index system from three aspects: power generation side, power transmission link, and power consumption side, comprehensively considers the main power generation link, power transmission link, and power consumption link in the marketization process, and simulates the marketization process more accurately and comprehensively, improves the precise grasp of market development, adapts to the future power market development guidance and focus determination, and provides reference information for the development of power marketization; 2. Strong practicality: The present invention selects multiple indicators for the three links, and establishes a direct connection between the indicators by setting weight coefficients; in addition, the setting of the weight coefficient can be flexibly set according to the type of different links in the power market, the type of transaction subject, etc., and can also be flexibly set according to the transaction characteristics of the power market itself, which meets the marketization degree analysis needs of different development stages, solves the full-process, multi-dimensional, flexible and efficient market development potential evaluation and analysis problems, enhances the grasp of the marketization development of the power market, and has strong practicality. Under the condition of ensuring simple and accurate statistics, the tracking of market development status is realized, and the perception and grasp of the level of power market development is improved, and the market operation subject provides a reference for the targeted improvement of the market mechanism. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0020] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of the basic architecture of the analysis and evaluation method proposed in the present invention;

[0021] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the marketization degree of the power generation side and the power consumption side of a certain province's power market;

[0022] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the marketization degree of the transmission side of a province's power market;

[0023] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the development potential of the comprehensive power market in a province. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0024] The present invention is further explained below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. It should be understood that the following specific embodiments are only used to illustrate the present invention and are not used to limit the scope of the present invention. After reading the present invention, various equivalent forms of modifications to the present invention by those skilled in the art all fall within the scope defined by the claims attached to this application.

[0025] See also Figure 1 As shown, the method for analyzing and evaluating the development potential of the electricity market described in the present invention includes the following steps: evaluating the marketization development degree of the power generation side according to the participation of members on the power generation side of the power market and the electricity transaction situation; evaluating the marketization development degree of the power transmission side according to the electricity transaction situation on the power grid side of the power market; evaluating the marketization development degree of the power consumption side according to the participation of members on the power consumption side of the power market and the electricity usage situation; determining the weight coefficient of each marketization development degree based on the power transaction characteristics, and comprehensively evaluating the development potential of the power market.

[0026] The power market development potential analysis and evaluation system described in the present invention includes: a power generation side evaluation module, which is used to evaluate the market development degree of the power generation side according to the participation of members on the power generation side of the power market and the electricity transaction situation; a power grid side evaluation module, which is used to evaluate the market development degree of power transmission according to the electricity transaction situation on the power grid side of the power market; an electricity consumption side evaluation module, which is used to evaluate the market development degree of the electricity consumption side according to the participation of members on the electricity consumption side of the power market and the electricity usage situation; and a comprehensive power market evaluation module, which is used to determine the weight coefficient of each market development degree based on the power transaction characteristics and comprehensively evaluate the development potential of the power market.

[0027] On the power generation side, the members of the power generation side include market power generation subject members and market power generation non-subject members; the market power generation subject members include at least one of thermal power units, gas units, photovoltaic power stations, wind farms, and energy storage stations. The attributes of the power generation side include market type, transaction target type, and market level. Among them, market types include medium- and long-term markets, spot markets, and ancillary service markets; the transaction target types include electricity and power; the market levels include large markets, medium markets, and small markets. In this embodiment, the large market corresponds to the national power market, the medium market corresponds to the provincial power market, and the small market corresponds to the regional power market.

[0028] Specifically, the present invention measures the market potential of the power generation side by the participation of power generation subject members and the market-based transaction electricity in the power generation side of the power generation market. The weight coefficients of the participation of members on the power generation side and the transaction of electricity are determined according to the attributes of the power generation side. In addition, in order to be applicable to various types of power generation side situations, the present invention sets the attributes of the power generation side to be multiple, such as the market type used to characterize the type of power generation unit, the type of transaction target used to characterize the transaction situation, the market level used to characterize the regional distribution, etc., so as to accurately evaluate the maturity and potential of different markets. In this embodiment, the basic units of the power generation subject members participating in the power transaction are based on the modeling data of the power generation subject members in the transaction declaration system, and the information of the power generation subject members is associated and maintained in real time based on the technical support system of the provincial power market. The number of power generation subjects on the power generation side is based on the actual dispatched grid-connected power generation units or new energy plants, and the power generation subjects are dispatched in association and collected to the provincial dispatching side, and the application program obtains and updates the number of grid-connected units in real time. Among them, the power generation subject members of the transaction declaration system in the market-based units include independent transaction declaration units such as thermal power units, gas units, photovoltaic power stations, wind farms, and energy storage stations. The power generation entities involved in dispatching and control include thermal power units, gas units, photovoltaic power stations, wind farms, energy storage stations and other grid-connected dispatching and control units. In addition, the statistical market dimensions of power generation units are designed for the medium and long term (the transaction time intervals include multi-year, annual, monthly, intra-month, multi-day), spot market (the transaction time intervals include day-ahead market, intra-day market), and auxiliary service market; the statistical regional dimensions include inter-provincial (i.e. large market), intra-regional (small market) and intra-provincial (medium market).

[0029] In the present invention, the market potential of the power generation side is analyzed and evaluated from three aspects: the market participation of the main members of the power generation side, the growth rate of the number of registered market members on the power generation side, and the proportion of market-based transaction electricity. Specifically, the participation of members on the power generation side and the power consumption side of the power market is determined by calculating the market participation of the members and the growth rate of the number of registered members. The transaction of electricity on the power generation side is determined by calculating the proportion of transaction electricity in the grid-connected electricity. Among them, when calculating and counting the two indicator items of the proportion of participation of members on the power generation side and the proportion of transaction electricity, the data interface is accessed from the business system of the trading center and the dispatching center through the application program, for example, business data is obtained in real time from the power trading support system, the dispatching control system, etc., and statistical evaluation is performed according to the above process. Since the total number of power generation entities and power generation entities participating in market transactions is easy to obtain and the calculation method is simple, it is possible to determine the current maturity and future potential of power generation entities participating in the market, and improve the level of marketization awareness on the power generation side. The three indicators are calculated as follows (1) to (3).

[0030] The calculation of the market participation of the power generation side is based on the power generation side main body members, that is, the proportion of the capacity of the units participating in the market to the system unit capacity. The greater the market participation of the power generation side main body, the more actively the power generation side main body supplier participates in the market. The specific formula is as follows:

[0031]

[0032] Where PR represents the market participation of the main members of the power generation side; m Indicates the capacity of the units (or plants) of the main members participating in the power generation side (such as thermal power, new energy, etc.); P max Indicates the unit capacity of the entire system on the power generation side.

[0033] The growth rate of the number of members registered on the power generation side, that is, the growth rate of market members who have completed the registration of market entities on the power generation side in the trading center, is as follows:

[0034]

[0035] In the formula, θ new,x represents the growth rate of market members who have completed the registration of power generation market entities in the trading center; a n,x Indicates the number of market members who have newly registered as market entities on the power generation side in the trading center; x represents the time interval, such as monthly or annual; a all,x Indicates the number of market members who have completed the registration of power generation-side market entities in the trading center.

[0036] When calculating the proportion of traded electricity in the grid-connected electricity, that is, the proportion of market-based transaction electricity, each round of electricity trading is taken as the minimum granularity, and the market-based transaction electricity and grid-connected electricity on the power generation side under the minimum granularity are calculated respectively, and then the proportion is calculated. In addition, based on a single round of electricity trading, the market-based transaction electricity and grid-connected electricity on the power generation side under each minimum time granularity can be calculated respectively, and the market-based transaction electricity on the power generation side corresponding to multiple minimum granularities can be combined and summarized into the total traded electricity. Similarly, the market-based grid-connected electricity on the power generation side corresponding to multiple minimum granularities can be combined and summarized into the total grid-connected electricity, and then the market-based transaction electricity proportion index under a higher time granularity can be obtained, as shown in formula (3).

[0037]

[0038] In the formula, β represents the proportion of market-based transaction electricity; i represents the i-th power generation transaction declaration unit, that is, the power generation entity member; n represents the total number of n power generation units on the power generation side, that is, the total number of power generation members; Q i represents the transaction power reported by the i-th power generation unit; Q i' represents the total grid-connected power of the i-th power generation unit, where grid connection refers to the process of transmitting the electric energy generated by the power station to each user through the transmission network. The amount of grid-connected power depends on the power generation of the power station and the transmission capacity of the power grid. The management of grid-connected power is an important part of the operation of the power system, involving multiple aspects such as the balance of power supply and demand, and the safe and stable operation of the power grid. Grid-connected power refers to the amount of power generated by the power station transmitted to the user end through the power grid. It usually involves the connection between the power station and the power grid, as well as the dispatching and distribution of power.

[0039] The transmission network is divided into a plurality of transmission lines according to the properties of the transmission network. The properties of the transmission network include voltage levels and topology types; the voltage levels include ultra-high voltage, extra-high voltage, and high voltage; the topology types include multiple grid connection points to one drop point, one grid connection point to multiple drop points, and multiple grid connection points to multiple drop points. Among them, the drop point is the end point of the power transmission process. The grid-connected power management of the power system is a complex process, involving multiple links such as power generation, transmission, scheduling and consumption. Therefore, the topological structure of the power grid of the present invention takes into account the correspondence between the grid connection point and the drop point, so as to achieve more accurate simulation and obtain more accurate evaluation results.

[0040] In the present invention, on the grid side of the power market, the market potential of the transmission exchange machine is measured by the market-oriented power transmission of the main transmission line of the power grid, and the market-oriented state of the transmission line is measured according to the market-oriented power transmission ratio between the transmission grid connection point and the landing point. Specifically, the power transaction situation on the transmission line is determined by calculating the proportion of the transmission power in the transaction power during a specific period of time on the transmission line on the grid side. When the transmission line is too long, it can be segmented, and then the market-oriented transmission information of each section of the transmission line is determined, so as to coordinate the transmission power from the starting point to the landing point, and then obtain the proportion of the market-oriented transaction power in the rated transmission channel and the transmission capacity in the same period, and determine the market-oriented power potential and trend of the transmission channel. Through the method of statistically analyzing the proportion of transmission line segments, it is possible to adapt to multi-level voltage levels and complex transmission network topologies, improve the calculation and statistical accuracy of the market-oriented power transmission ratio of the transmission link, provide reference for the market-oriented pricing and auction of power grid transmission rights, and the planning and construction of transmission lines, and improve the marketization of the transmission link.

[0041] The potential assessment of the transmission link is based on the above technical solutions. It takes into account the topological relationship between the transmission starting point and the landing point, calculates the proportion of traded electricity in the fixed-time transmission electricity of transmission lines within different ranges, and determines the degree of marketization of electricity in the transmission link of the power grid, as shown in equations (4) and (5).

[0042]

[0043] In the formula, δ x represents the t of the xth transmission line1 to 2 The proportion of transaction power in the power transmission during the period; x represents the number of the transmission line; Q j is the jth section of the transmission line at t 1 to 2 The market-based transaction electricity delivered during the period; Q' j The jth section of the transmission line is at t 1 to 2 The actual amount of electricity delivered during the time period; It represents the proportion of traded electricity in the average transmission line electricity of the transmission line; m represents the number of transmission lines.

[0044] On the electricity consumption side, the members of the electricity consumption side include market electricity consumption subject members and market electricity non-subject members; the market electricity consumption subject members include at least one of large users, industrial and commercial users, production and consumption users, and ordinary users. Furthermore, the attributes of the electricity consumption side include market type, transaction subject type, and market level. The market types include medium and long-term markets, spot markets, and auxiliary service markets; the transaction subject types include electricity volume and electricity; the market levels include large markets, medium markets, and small markets. In this embodiment, the large market corresponds to the national electricity market, the medium market corresponds to the provincial electricity market, and the small market corresponds to the regional electricity market. Through the information statistics of the above dimensions, the load types and proportions of the electricity consumption side participating in the electricity market, the proportion of market type transaction electricity, and the proportion of regional levels are analyzed to determine the marketization degree of the electricity consumption side in each dimension, track and grasp the changes in the marketization status of the user side, and provide a quantitative basis for decision-making for formulating a mechanism to guide the market entities on the load side to participate in market transactions.

[0045] In the present invention, in the electricity consumption side of the power market, the market potential of the electricity consumption side is measured by the electricity consumption subject and the market-oriented electricity consumption. Specifically, the weight coefficients of the member participation and the electricity consumption transaction situation on the electricity consumption side are determined according to the attributes of the electricity consumption side. Among them, the electricity consumption subject is also the load subject. In this embodiment, the subject information of the market subject directly participating in the power transaction on the electricity consumption side is obtained from the trading center, and the subject information of the subject participating in the market transaction through demand response or indirect participation is obtained from the power grid marketing department. The two information are incremental and complementary. The basic unit of the electricity consumption subject participating in the power transaction is based on the registration data of the electricity consumption subject in the transaction declaration system, and the information of the electricity consumption subject is associated and maintained in real time based on the technical support system of the provincial power market. The number of electricity consumption subjects on the electricity consumption side is based on the account opening registration information of the power grid marketing department, including large users directly participating in market transactions, as well as industrial and commercial users, ordinary electricity users, production and consumption users, etc. who indirectly participate in market transactions. Among them, ordinary electricity users include ordinary residential agricultural users represented by virtual power plants, aggregators, etc. Through the application, the market participation information of market entities on the electricity consumption side can be obtained from the power trading center, power grid marketing department, etc. Based on the market participants and the proportion of trading electricity, the degree of marketization on the load side and the potential for future development can be determined, providing a basis and support for guiding the market-oriented development of the load side.

[0046] In the present invention, specifically, the market potential of the power consumption side is analyzed and evaluated from three aspects: the market participation of the main members on the power consumption side, the growth rate of the number of registered market members on the power consumption side, and the proportion of market-based electricity consumption. The participation of members on the power consumption side of the power market is determined by calculating the market participation and the growth rate of the number of registered members. The electricity consumption on the power consumption side is determined by calculating the proportion of market electricity consumption in the actual electricity consumption. The three indicators are calculated as follows: (6)-(8).

[0047] The market participation degree of entities on the electricity user side refers to the ratio of the number of market entities participating in the electricity user side to the total number of registered market entities on the electricity side. The greater the market participation degree of entities on the electricity user side, the more actively users participate in the market.

[0048]

[0049] In the formula, CR represents the market participation of the electricity user; C m Indicates the number of market players participating in the electricity consumption side; C max Represents the total number of registered market entities on the electricity consumption side.

[0050] The growth rate of the number of registered market members on the electricity user side, i.e., the growth rate of market members who have completed registration of market entities on the electricity user side in the trading center, can be calculated on a monthly or annual basis.

[0051]

[0052] In the formula, θ n ' ew,x Indicates the growth rate of market members who have completed the registration of market entities on the electricity consumption side in the trading center; a' n,x represents the number of market members who have newly registered as electricity-consuming market entities in the trading center; x represents the time interval; a' all,x It indicates the number of market members who have completed the registration of market entities on the electricity user side in the trading center.

[0053] When calculating the market-based proportion of load electricity consumption, due to the influence of power grid proxy purchases, the preferential purchases in the province and inter-provincial agreement on new energy consumption carried out by the power grid company do not belong to transaction electricity for residents, agriculture and some industrial and commercial businesses on the load side. However, some proxy purchases are obtained through medium- and long-term spot market transactions. Therefore, there is a certain difference between the market-based proportion of load electricity consumption and the market-based grid-connected electricity proportion on the power generation side. The present invention uses this feature to determine the market-based proportion of load electricity consumption through the following formula (8).

[0054]

[0055] In the formula, φ represents the market share of load electricity consumption; y represents the yth load user; k represents that there are k load users in the statistical area; Q y represents the electricity consumption of load user y through market transactions; Q' y Represents the actual power consumption of load user y.

[0056] After determining the market development evaluation of the three dimensions of the power generation side, the power consumption side, and the power grid side according to the above process, the evaluation coefficients of the three dimensions are set in combination with the power transaction characteristics of the power market to be tested, and then a comprehensive evaluation is performed. Among them, the power transaction characteristics include the opening time of the power market, the proportion of new energy installed capacity, the proportion of large industrial users, and the level of economic development; and can be fine-tuned according to actual conditions. Since the dimensions of the comprehensive market evaluation are fixed, a flexible and appropriate two-layer parameter constraint adjustment strategy can be used to evaluate and analyze the comprehensive development degree of the market to determine the development status of the market. For example, the coefficients corresponding to different indicators in this link can be set according to the attributes of the power generation side and the power consumption side, or the coefficients corresponding to the development potential calculated in each link of the power market to be tested can be set according to the characteristics of power transaction, which is more in line with the actual situation of the power market and has better calculation accuracy. At the same time, in the present invention, the dimensional coefficients of the comprehensive market development degree can be fine-tuned in combination with market characteristics or macro-control policies, which improves the evaluation flexibility of the market development degree and provides a focus direction and guidance for the development of the power market. Specifically, the specific formula for evaluating the development potential of the power market is as follows:

[0057] Z=α 1 f+α 2S+α 3 h (9)

[0058]

[0059] Where Z represents the comprehensive analysis result of the development potential of the power market; f represents the evaluation and analysis result of the market development degree of the power generation side; S represents the evaluation and analysis result of the market development degree of the power transmission side; h represents the analysis result of the market development degree of the power consumption side on the load side; α 1 Represents the weight coefficient of the power generation side, α 1,1 , α 1,2 , α 1,3 Represents the weight coefficient of the power generation side market development evaluation and analysis index, α 1,1 +α 1,2 +α 1,3 =1;α 2 The weight coefficient indicating the market development degree of power transmission; α 3 represents the weight coefficient of the load side, α 3,1 , α 3,2 , α 3,3 Represents the weight coefficient of each indicator item in the evaluation and analysis of the electricity consumption side market development, α 3,1 +α 3,2 +α 3,3 =1; where α 1 +α 2 +α 3 =1.

[0060] See also Figures 2 to 4 As shown, this is a diagram showing the evaluation results of the market development level of a province simulated according to the method proposed in the present invention.

[0061] like Figure 2 As shown in the figure, it is the degree of marketization of the power market on the power generation side and the power consumption side of the province. It can be seen that the marketization of the power generation side is higher than that of the power consumption side. This is mainly due to the fact that the power generation side accounts for a larger proportion of electricity. After the power purchase agent purchases electricity in a market-oriented manner, it supplies electricity to residents, agriculture, and some industries and commerce through a non-marketized unified sales method. As a result, from the perspective of the entire process, the marketization of the power generation side is higher than that of the power consumption side.

[0062] like Figure 3 As shown in the figure, the marketization degree of the transmission channel is measured by the marketization power transmission volume of the transmission line and the actual transmission ratio. It can be seen from the figure that the marketization is higher than the marketization degree of the power generation side. This is mainly due to the internal balancing transactions at the provincial level, including distributed power generation mutual aid transactions, demand response of production and consumption users, and response of aggregators and virtual power plants, which leads to the proportion of transmission volume in the transmission line being higher than the pure marketization grid-connected power volume on the power generation side.

[0063] like Figure 4The following table shows the results of comprehensive market-based evaluation and analysis. The weight coefficients of the power generation side, power consumption side, and power grid side are all 1 / 3. Figure 2 and Figure 3 It can be seen that the marketization degree of the province's power generation side is higher than that of the user side, and the marketization of the transmission link is between the power generation side and the user side. Therefore, the province's marketization process is currently in the middle stage, fluctuating around 0.5 overall, so the potential for marketization is relatively large.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing and evaluating the development potential of the power market, characterized in that: The steps include: Evaluate the market development level of the power generation side based on the participation of members and the volume of electricity traded on the power generation side of the power market; Evaluate the market development level of power transmission based on the electricity transaction situation on the grid side of the power market; Evaluate the degree of market development on the electricity consumption side based on the participation of members and electricity usage on the electricity consumption side of the power market; Based on the characteristics of electricity trading, the weight coefficients of each market development degree are determined, and the development potential of the electricity market is comprehensively evaluated.

2. The method for analyzing and evaluating the development potential of the power market according to claim 1, characterized in that: The specific formula for evaluating the development potential of the electricity market is as follows: Z=α1f+α2S+α3h In the formula, Z represents the development potential of the electricity market; f represents the marketization development degree of the power generation side; S represents the marketization development degree of the power transmission side; h represents the marketization development degree of the power consumption side; α1 represents the weight coefficient of the marketization development degree of the power generation side; α2 represents the weight coefficient of the marketization development degree of the power transmission side; α3 represents the weight coefficient of the marketization development degree of the power consumption side.

3. The method for analyzing and evaluating the development potential of the power market according to claim 1, characterized in that: The members of the power generation side include market power generation subject members and market power generation non-subject members; the market power generation subject members include at least one of thermal power units, gas units, photovoltaic power stations, wind farms, and energy storage stations; The members on the electricity consumption side include market electricity user entities and market electricity non-user entities; the market electricity user entities include at least one of large users, industrial and commercial users, production and consumption users, and ordinary users.

4. The method for analyzing and evaluating the development potential of the power market according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The weight coefficients of member participation and electricity transaction status on the power generation side are determined according to the attributes of the power generation side; the weight coefficients of member participation and electricity transaction status on the power consumption side are determined according to the attributes of the power consumption side.

5. The method for analyzing and evaluating the development potential of the power market according to claim 4, characterized in that: The attributes of the power generation side and the power consumption side include market type, transaction target type, and market level; The market types include medium- and long-term markets, spot markets, and ancillary service markets; the types of transaction objects include electricity and power; and the market levels include large markets, medium markets, and small markets.

6. The method for analyzing and evaluating the development potential of the power market according to claim 1, characterized in that: Determine the member participation on the power generation side of the electricity market by calculating the market participation rate and the growth rate of the number of registrations of members on the power generation side; The electricity transaction status on the power generation side is determined by calculating the proportion of the traded electricity in the grid-connected electricity.

7. The method for analyzing and evaluating the development potential of the power market according to claim 1, characterized in that: Determine the member participation on the electricity market’s consumer side by calculating the market participation rate and registration growth rate of members on the consumer side; The electricity usage of the electricity user is determined by calculating the proportion of market electricity consumption in actual electricity consumption.

8. The method for analyzing and evaluating the development potential of the power market according to claim 1, characterized in that: The transmission network is divided into a plurality of transmission lines according to the properties of the transmission network, and the electricity transaction status on the transmission line is determined by calculating the proportion of the transmitted electricity in a specific period of time in the transaction electricity of the transmission line on the grid side.

9. The method for analyzing and evaluating the development potential of the power market according to claim 8, characterized in that: The properties of the transmission network include voltage level and topology type; The voltage levels include ultra-high voltage, extra-high voltage, and high voltage; the topology types include multiple grid-connected points to one landing point, one grid-connected point to multiple landing points, and multiple grid-connected points to multiple landing points.

10. A system for analyzing and evaluating the development potential of the power market, characterized in that: include: The power generation side evaluation module is used to evaluate the market development degree of the power generation side based on the participation of members and the electricity transaction situation on the power generation side of the power market; The grid-side evaluation module is used to evaluate the market development level of power transmission based on the electricity transaction situation on the grid side of the power market; The electricity consumption side evaluation module is used to evaluate the market development degree of the electricity consumption side according to the participation of members and electricity usage on the electricity consumption side of the power market; The power market comprehensive evaluation module is used to determine the weight coefficients of each market development degree based on the power transaction characteristics and comprehensively evaluate the development potential of the power market.

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