Helium consumption prediction method and device
By predicting the annual average consumption growth rate of different helium application fields in subdivided fields, combined with the total consumption share in each field, the problem of low accuracy of helium consumption prediction in the existing technology has been solved, and a higher Prediction accuracy.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202310835124.0
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2023-07-07
- Publication Date
- 2025-01-14
AI Technical Summary
The prior art fails to effectively consider differences in different fields in the prediction of helium consumption, resulting in low prediction accuracy.
By obtaining the consumption of many years for each helium application field, calculating the annual average growth rate, and predicting the consumption in the target year based on this growth rate, combining the proportion of the total consumption in each field to the overall consumption, subdividing the fields into Demand forecast.
Improve the accuracy of helium consumption forecasts by identifying and reflecting consumption differences and growth rate changes in different fields.
Smart Images
Figure CN119313385A_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The present invention relates to demand forecasting technology, and more particularly to a helium consumption forecasting method and device. Background Art
[0002] Helium is widely used in various fields due to its unique properties. The prediction of helium consumption is very important for helium supply.
[0003] In related technologies, a trend curve is usually regressed based on the historical helium consumption demand, and then the future demand is predicted according to the historical annual growth rate.
[0004] However, this method looks at helium consumption as a whole, without considering the differences in helium consumption in different fields. Therefore, the accuracy of helium consumption prediction is not high. Summary of the invention
[0005] The present application provides a helium consumption prediction method and device, which can predict the helium consumption in different fields respectively, thereby improving the accuracy of helium consumption prediction.
[0006] On the one hand, the present application provides a helium consumption prediction method, comprising:
[0007] For each helium application field, the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years is obtained, the annual average helium consumption growth rate of the helium application field is calculated based on the annual average helium consumption growth rate of the helium application field, and the helium consumption of the helium application field in the target year is predicted based on the annual average helium consumption growth rate of the helium application field;
[0008] The overall helium consumption in the target year is obtained based on the helium consumption of all helium application fields in the target year and the proportion of the total helium consumption of all helium application fields to the overall helium consumption.
[0009] On the other hand, the present application provides a helium consumption prediction device, comprising: a memory and a processor, wherein the memory is used to store an executable program;
[0010] The processor is used to read and execute the executable program to implement the above-mentioned helium consumption prediction method.
[0011] Compared with the related art, the present application includes obtaining the helium consumption in multiple years for each pre-divided helium application field, calculating the annual average helium consumption growth rate of various helium application fields based on the obtained helium consumption of each helium application field in multiple years, and obtaining the helium consumption of various helium application fields in the target year based on the annual helium consumption growth rate of each helium application field; and then obtaining the overall helium consumption in the target year based on the helium consumption of all helium application fields in the target year and the proportion of the total helium consumption of all helium application fields in the overall helium consumption. Therefore, based on the difference in helium consumption in different fields and the changes in consumption growth rates, the helium demand in different fields is predicted respectively, thereby improving the accuracy of the helium consumption prediction.
[0012] Other features and advantages of the present application will be described in the following description, and partly become apparent from the description, or be understood by implementing the present application. Other advantages of the present application can be realized and obtained by the schemes described in the description and the drawings. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0013] The accompanying drawings are used to provide an understanding of the technical solution of the present application and constitute a part of the specification. Together with the embodiments of the present application, they are used to explain the technical solution of the present application and do not constitute a limitation on the technical solution of the present application.
[0014] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a flow chart of a helium consumption prediction method provided in an embodiment of the present application;
[0015] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of another helium consumption prediction method provided in an embodiment of the present application;
[0016] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0017] The present application describes multiple embodiments, but the description is exemplary rather than restrictive, and it is obvious to those skilled in the art that there may be more embodiments and implementations within the scope of the embodiments described in the present application. Although many possible feature combinations are shown in the drawings and discussed in the specific embodiments, many other combinations of the disclosed features are also possible. Unless specifically limited, any feature or element of any embodiment may be used in combination with any other feature or element in any other embodiment, or may replace any other feature or element in any other embodiment.
[0018] The present application includes and contemplates combinations of features and elements known to those of ordinary skill in the art. The embodiments, features and elements disclosed in the present application may also be combined with any conventional features or elements to form a unique invention scheme defined by the claims. Any features or elements of any embodiment may also be combined with features or elements from other invention schemes to form another unique invention scheme defined by the claims. Therefore, it should be understood that any feature shown and / or discussed in the present application may be implemented individually or in any appropriate combination. Therefore, except for the limitations made according to the attached claims and their equivalents, the embodiments are not subject to other restrictions. In addition, various modifications and changes may be made within the scope of protection of the attached claims.
[0019] In addition, when describing representative embodiments, the specification may have presented the method and / or process as a specific sequence of steps. However, to the extent that the method or process does not rely on the specific order of the steps described herein, the method or process should not be limited to the steps of the specific order described. As will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art, other sequences of steps are also possible. Therefore, the specific sequence of the steps set forth in the specification should not be interpreted as a limitation to the claims. In addition, the claims for the method and / or process should not be limited to the steps of performing them in the order written, and those skilled in the art can easily understand that these sequences can be changed and still remain within the spirit and scope of the embodiments of the present application.
[0020] The present application embodiment provides a method for predicting helium consumption, such as Figure 1 As shown, including:
[0021] Step 101: for each helium application field, obtain the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years, calculate the average annual helium consumption growth rate of the helium application field according to the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years, and predict the helium consumption of the helium application field in a target year based on the average annual helium consumption growth rate of the helium application field;
[0022] Step 102: Obtain the overall helium consumption in the target year based on the obtained helium consumption in all helium application fields in the target year and the proportion of the sum of the helium consumption in all helium application fields to the overall helium consumption.
[0023] The helium consumption prediction method provided in the embodiment of the present application obtains the helium consumption in multiple years for each pre-divided helium application field, calculates the annual average helium consumption growth rate of various helium application fields based on the obtained helium consumption of each helium application field in multiple years, and obtains the helium consumption of various helium application fields in the target year based on the annual helium consumption growth rate of each helium application field; and then obtains the overall helium consumption in the target year based on the helium consumption of all helium application fields in the target year and the proportion of the sum of the helium consumption of all helium application fields in the overall helium consumption. Therefore, based on the difference in helium consumption in different fields and the changes in consumption growth rates, the helium demand in different fields is predicted respectively, thereby improving the accuracy of helium consumption prediction.
[0024] In an exemplary embodiment, the helium application field includes: nuclear magnetic resonance equipment.
[0025] In an exemplary embodiment, when the helium application field is the nuclear magnetic resonance equipment, obtaining the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes:
[0026] For each of the multiple years, the helium consumption of the nuclear magnetic resonance equipment in the year is calculated by the following expression:
[0027] C1=P1+RA N +RA O
[0028] P i =H i ×UR1
[0029] RA N =(H i ×η+H i-1 )×T×UR N
[0030] RA O =(HA i-1 -HA Ni )×UR O
[0031]
[0032] Wherein, C1 is the helium consumption of the NMR equipment in that year, P1 is the helium consumption of the NMR equipment initially installed in that year, RA N is the helium consumption for replenishing the new magnet equipment in that year, RA O is the helium consumption for replenishing the old magnet equipment in that year, H iis the annual output of NMR equipment in that year, η is the proportion of new magnet equipment output in that year, T is the replenishment demand cycle in that year, UR N is a single replenishment of new magnet equipment in that year, UR O is a single replenishment of the old magnet equipment in that year, HA i-1 is the number of nuclear magnetic resonance equipment in the previous year, HA Ni is the number of new magnet equipment in that year, T j is an integer ≥1, the new magnet device is a nuclear magnetic resonance device with a service life greater than a preset period, and the old magnet device is a nuclear magnetic resonance device with a service life not greater than the preset period.
[0033] In an exemplary embodiment, the helium application field also includes: optical fiber.
[0034] In an exemplary embodiment, when the helium consumption field is the optical fiber, obtaining the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes:
[0035] For each of the multiple years, the helium consumption of the optical fiber in that year is calculated by the following expression:
[0036] C2=C m +C n
[0037] C m =GB i ×UR2×(1-θ)
[0038] C n =GL i ×UR3×ε×(1-λ)
[0039] Where C2 is the helium consumption of the optical fiber in that year, C m is the helium consumption for the production of optical rods in that year, C n is the consumption of helium for optical fiber drawing in that year, GB i is the annual output of polished rods in that year, UR2 is the helium consumption per kilogram of polished rods in that year, θ is the proportion of polished rods produced by vacuum sintering process in that year, GL i is the annual output of optical fiber in that year, ε is the recovery rate of helium used for optical fiber drawing in that year, and λ is the proportion of low-speed drawn optical fiber output in that year.
[0040] The helium in the wire drawing process can be recovered and purified before use. The ratio of this amount to the total consumption is the recovery rate, calculated on an annual basis.
[0041] In an exemplary embodiment, the helium application field also includes: semiconductors.
[0042] In an exemplary embodiment, when the helium application field is the semiconductor, obtaining the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes:
[0043] For each of a plurality of years, the helium consumption of the semiconductor in that year is calculated by the following expression:
[0044] C3=B1×UR4+B2×μ×UR4
[0045] Among them, C3 is the helium consumption of the semiconductor in that year, B1 is the annual output of Type I wafers in that year, UR4 is the unit helium consumption of Type I wafers in that year, B2 is the annual output of Type II wafers in that year, and μ is the ratio of the unit helium consumption of Type II wafers to the unit helium consumption of Type I wafers in that year.
[0046] In an exemplary embodiment, the helium application field also includes: gas lift.
[0047] In an exemplary embodiment, when the helium consumption field is the gas lift, obtaining the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes:
[0048] For each of the multiple years, the helium consumption of the gas lift in that year is calculated by the following expression:
[0049] C4=C h +C f
[0050] C h =J i-1 ×(1-γ)×n×UR5
[0051] C f =M i ×UR6
[0052] Where C4 is the helium consumption of the gas lift in that year, C h is the helium consumption of weddings in that year, C f is the helium consumption for the real estate opening ceremony in that year, J i-1 is the number of marriage registrations in the previous year, γ is the decreasing rate of marriage registrations in that year, n is the number of helium used in weddings held in that year, UR5 is the amount of helium used in a single wedding in that year, M i is the completed real estate area in that year, and UR6 is the helium consumption per unit completed area in that year.
[0053] In an exemplary embodiment, the helium application field also includes: liquid crystal panels.
[0054] In an exemplary embodiment, when the helium application field is the liquid crystal panel, obtaining the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes:
[0055] For each of the multiple years, the helium consumption of the liquid crystal panel in the year is calculated by the following expression:
[0056] C5=(C l +C O )×β×UR7
[0057] Wherein, C5 is the helium consumption of the LCD panel in that year, C l and C O are the outputs of LCD and OLCD panels in that year respectively, β is the operating rate of LCD panel manufacturing enterprises in that year, and UR7 is the helium consumption per unit of LCD panel in that year.
[0058] In an exemplary embodiment, the helium application field also includes: automobile manufacturing.
[0059] In an exemplary embodiment, when the helium application field is automobile manufacturing, obtaining the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes:
[0060] For each of a plurality of years, the helium consumption of the automobile manufacture in that year is calculated by the following expression:
[0061] C6=C q ×(α1×UR8+α2×UR9+α3×UR 10 )
[0062] Where C6 is the helium consumption of the automobile manufactured in that year, C q is the annual automobile production in that year, α1 is the number of airbags per automobile in that year, α2 is the number of wheels per automobile in that year, α3 is the number of air conditioners per automobile in that year, UR8, UR9 and UR 10 These are the helium consumption per unit combined with airbags, wheels and air conditioning components in that year respectively.
[0063] In an exemplary embodiment, the helium application field also includes: refrigeration equipment.
[0064] In an exemplary embodiment, when the helium consumption object is the refrigeration equipment, obtaining the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes:
[0065] For each of the multiple years, the helium consumption of the refrigeration equipment in that year is calculated by the following expression:
[0066] C7=Ck ×UR 11
[0067] Wherein, C7 is the consumption of helium by the refrigeration equipment in that year, C k is the output of refrigeration equipment in that year, UR 11 It is the helium consumption of a single refrigeration equipment in that year.
[0068] Exemplarily, the refrigeration equipment specifically includes an air conditioner.
[0069] In an exemplary embodiment, the step of calculating the average annual helium consumption growth rate of the helium application field according to the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes:
[0070] For each year except the first year among the multiple years, the annual helium consumption growth rate of the helium application field in that year is calculated based on the helium consumption of the helium application field in that year and the helium consumption of the year before that year;
[0071] The average annual helium consumption growth rate for this helium application field is calculated based on the annual helium consumption growth rate for this helium application field in multiple years.
[0072] In an exemplary embodiment, if the proportion of the sum of helium consumption in all helium application fields to the overall helium consumption is represented by ω, then the overall helium consumption C in the target year is calculated by the following expression:
[0073] C=(C 11 +C 12 +C 13 +C 14 +C 15 +C 16 +C 17 ) / ω
[0074] In addition to the above-mentioned application fields of nuclear magnetic resonance equipment, optical fiber, semiconductors, gas lift, LCD panels, automobile manufacturing and refrigeration equipment, helium is also widely used in military industry, scientific research, aerospace, deep-sea diving, superconducting experiments, medical treatment, semiconductors, optoelectronics, high-precision welding, pipeline leak detection, refrigeration and metal manufacturing due to its unique properties. It is an indispensable strategic material for the development of national defense and high-tech industries. Helium is a small-variety, strategically precious gas. Although its total downstream consumption is relatively small, it involves many fields, industries and user categories. The demand for helium in different industries and different application scenarios presents different supply characteristics.
[0075] The helium consumption prediction method provided in the embodiment of the present application is based on the helium usage characteristics and scenarios in different fields, such as Figure 2As shown in the figure, the industrial helium market in my country is subdivided into 7 representative and important application fields, and the consumption of each of the 7 application fields in the current year is calculated. Secondly, the annual helium consumption growth rate and growth amount in different fields are calculated based on the helium usage characteristics, helium usage scenarios, and helium usage process / technical improvements and trends in different consumption fields. Then the helium demand in potential new fields is calculated and included. Finally, the consumption growth in all application fields is summed up to obtain the forecast value of the consumption demand of the entire helium market.
[0076] The embodiment of the present application also provides a helium consumption prediction device, characterized in that it includes: a memory and a processor, wherein the memory is used to store an executable program;
[0077] The processor is used to read and execute the executable program to implement the helium consumption prediction method described in any of the above embodiments.
[0078] The helium consumption prediction device provided in the embodiment of the present application obtains the helium consumption in multiple years for each pre-divided helium application field, calculates the annual average helium consumption growth rate of various helium application fields according to the obtained helium consumption of each helium application field in multiple years, and obtains the helium consumption of various helium application fields in the target year based on the annual helium consumption growth rate of each helium application field; and then obtains the overall helium consumption in the target year according to the helium consumption of all helium application fields in the target year and the proportion of the sum of the helium consumption of all helium application fields in the overall helium consumption. Therefore, based on the difference in helium consumption in different fields and the change in consumption growth rate, the helium demand in different fields is predicted respectively, thereby improving the accuracy of helium consumption prediction.
[0079] The present application also provides an electronic device, such as Figure 3 As shown, the electronic device 3 includes a processor 301, a communication interface 302, a memory 303 and a communication bus 304, wherein the processor 301, the communication interface 302 and the memory 303 communicate with each other through the communication bus 304; the memory 303 is used to store computer programs; the processor 301 is used to implement the helium consumption prediction method as described above when executing the program stored in the memory.
[0080] It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that all or some of the steps, systems, and functional modules / units in the disclosed methods above may be implemented as software, firmware, hardware, and appropriate combinations thereof. In hardware implementations, the division between the functional modules / units mentioned in the above description does not necessarily correspond to the division of physical elements; for example, a physical element may have multiple functions, or a function or step may be performed by several physical elements in cooperation. Some or all elements may be implemented as software executed by a processor, such as a digital signal processor or a microprocessor, or implemented as hardware, or implemented as an integrated circuit, such as an application-specific integrated circuit. Such software may be distributed on a computer-readable medium, which may include a computer storage medium (or non-transitory medium) and a communication medium (or temporary medium). As known to those skilled in the art, the term computer storage medium includes volatile and non-volatile, removable and non-removable media implemented in any method or technology for storing information (such as computer-readable instructions, data structures, program modules, or other data). Computer storage media include, but are not limited to, RAM, ROM, EEPROM, flash memory or other memory technology, CD-ROM, digital versatile disks (DVD) or other optical disk storage, magnetic cassettes, magnetic tapes, magnetic disk storage or other magnetic storage devices, or any other medium that can be used to store the desired information and can be accessed by a computer. In addition, it is well known to those of ordinary skill in the art that communication media typically contain computer-readable instructions, data structures, program modules, or other data in a modulated data signal such as a carrier wave or other transport mechanism, and may include any information delivery media.
Claims
1. A method for predicting helium consumption, characterized in that: include: For each helium application field, the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years is obtained, the annual average helium consumption growth rate of the helium application field is calculated based on the annual average helium consumption growth rate of the helium application field, and the helium consumption of the helium application field in the target year is predicted based on the annual average helium consumption growth rate of the helium application field; The overall helium consumption in the target year is obtained based on the helium consumption of all helium application fields in the target year and the proportion of the total helium consumption of all helium application fields to the overall helium consumption.
2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The helium application field includes: nuclear magnetic resonance equipment. When the helium application field is the nuclear magnetic resonance equipment, obtaining the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes: For each of the multiple years, the helium consumption of the nuclear magnetic resonance equipment in the year is calculated by the following expression: C1=P1+RA N +RA O P i =H i ×UR1 RA N =(H i ×η+H i-1 )×T×UR N R.A. O =(HA i-1 -HA Ni )×UR O Wherein, C1 is the helium consumption of the NMR equipment in that year, P1 is the helium consumption of the NMR equipment initially installed in that year, RA N is the helium consumption for replenishing the new magnet equipment in that year, RA O is the helium consumption for replenishing the old magnet equipment in that year, H i is the annual output of NMR equipment in that year, η is the proportion of new magnet equipment output in that year, T is the replenishment demand cycle in that year, UR N is a single replenishment of new magnet equipment in that year, UR O is a single replenishment of the old magnet equipment in that year, HA i-1 is the number of nuclear magnetic resonance equipment in the previous year, HA Ni is the number of new magnet equipment in that year, T j is an integer ≥1, the new magnet device is a nuclear magnetic resonance device with a service life greater than a preset period, and the old magnet device is a nuclear magnetic resonance device with a service life not greater than the preset period.
3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The helium application field also includes: optical fiber. When the helium consumption field is the optical fiber, obtaining the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes: For each of the multiple years, the helium consumption of the optical fiber in that year is calculated by the following expression: C2=C m +C n C m =GB i ×UR2×(1-θ) C n =GL i ×UR3×ε×(1-λ) Where C2 is the helium consumption of the optical fiber in that year, C m is the helium consumption for the production of optical rods in that year, C n is the consumption of helium for optical fiber drawing in that year, GB i is the annual output of polished rods in that year, UR2 is the helium consumption per kilogram of polished rods in that year, θ is the proportion of polished rods produced by vacuum sintering process in that year, GL i is the annual output of optical fiber in that year, ε is the recovery rate of helium used for optical fiber drawing in that year, and λ is the proportion of low-speed drawn optical fiber output in that year.
4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The helium application field also includes: semiconductors. When the helium application field is the semiconductor, obtaining the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes: For each of a plurality of years, the helium consumption of the semiconductor in that year is calculated by the following expression: C3=B1×UR4+B2×μ×UR4 Among them, C3 is the helium consumption of the semiconductor in that year, B1 is the annual output of Type I wafers in that year, UR4 is the unit helium consumption of Type I wafers in that year, B2 is the annual output of Type II wafers in that year, and μ is the ratio of the unit helium consumption of Type II wafers to the unit helium consumption of Type I wafers in that year.
5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The helium application field also includes: gas lift. When the helium consumption field is the gas lift, obtaining the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes: For each of the multiple years, the helium consumption of the gas lift in that year is calculated by the following expression: C4=C h +C f C h =J i-1 ×(1-γ)×n×UR5 C f =M i ×UR6 Where C4 is the helium consumption of the gas lift in that year, C h is the helium consumption of weddings in that year, C f is the helium consumption for real estate opening ceremonies in that year, J i-1 is the number of marriage registrations in the previous year, γ is the decreasing rate of marriage registrations in that year, n is the number of helium used in weddings held in that year, UR5 is the amount of helium used in a single wedding in that year, M i is the completed real estate area in that year, and UR6 is the helium consumption per unit completed area in that year.
6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The helium application field also includes: liquid crystal panel. When the helium application field is the liquid crystal panel, obtaining the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes: For each of the multiple years, the helium consumption of the liquid crystal panel in the year is calculated by the following expression: C5=(C l +C O )×β×UR7 Wherein, C5 is the helium consumption of the LCD panel in that year, C l and C O are the outputs of LCD and OLCD panels in that year respectively, β is the operating rate of LCD panel manufacturing enterprises in that year, and UR7 is the helium consumption per unit of LCD panel in that year.
7. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The helium application field also includes: automobile manufacturing. When the helium application field is automobile manufacturing, obtaining the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes: For each of a plurality of years, the helium consumption of the automobile manufacture in that year is calculated by the following expression: C6=C q ×(α1×UR8+α2×UR9+α3×UR 10 ) Where C6 is the helium consumption of the automobile manufactured in that year, C q is the annual automobile production in that year, α1 is the number of airbags per automobile in that year, α2 is the number of wheels per automobile in that year, α3 is the number of air conditioners per automobile in that year, UR8, UR9 and UR 10 They are the helium consumption per unit for airbags, wheels and air conditioning components in that year respectively.
8. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The helium application field also includes: refrigeration equipment. When the helium consumption object is the refrigeration equipment, obtaining the helium consumption of the helium application field in multiple years includes: For each of the multiple years, the helium consumption of the refrigeration equipment in that year is calculated by the following expression: C7=C k ×UR 11 Wherein, C7 is the consumption of helium by the refrigeration equipment in that year, C k is the output of refrigeration equipment in that year, UR 11 It is the helium consumption of a single refrigeration equipment in that year.
9. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation of the average annual helium consumption growth rate in the helium application field according to the helium consumption in the helium application field in multiple years includes: For each year except the first year among the multiple years, the annual helium consumption growth rate of the helium application field in that year is calculated based on the helium consumption of the helium application field in that year and the helium consumption of the year before that year; The average annual helium consumption growth rate for this helium application field is calculated based on the annual helium consumption growth rate for this helium application field in multiple years.
10. A helium consumption prediction device, characterized in that: include: A memory and a processor, wherein the memory is used to store an executable program; The processor is used to read and execute the executable program to implement the helium consumption prediction method according to any one of claims 1-9.