Water supply safety risk assessment method and assessment system for large-scale cross-basin water transfer project

Abstract

The invention discloses a large-scale cross-basin water transfer project water supply safety risk assessment method and assessment system. The method comprises the following steps: determining a professional object involved in water supply safety risk assessment; dividing evaluation units, and selecting representative units and typical units; identifying a risk event, and carding risk factors causing the risk event; formulating a risk possibility standard and a risk event consequence severity standard, and formulating a risk grade standard; carrying out risk analysis and evaluation on the representative unit and the typical unit; performing risk analysis and evaluation on the representative unit according to the risk analysis result of the representative unit; integrating risk assessment to obtain a water supply safety risk assessment result of the whole line of the water transfer project; and providing risk response measures. According to the method, the scale characteristic, the water supply object characteristic, the water delivery line characteristic, the building composition characteristic, the management attribute characteristic and the like of the large-scale cross-basin water transfer project are comprehensively considered, the whole-process technical steps of water supply safety risk assessment of the large-scale cross-basin water transfer project are established, and various technical methods of all links are provided; and a basis is provided for engineering water supply safety risk prevention and control.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of water conservancy project management, and specifically relates to a water supply safety risk assessment method and assessment system for a large-scale inter-basin water diversion project. Background Art

[0002] Large-scale inter-basin water transfer projects usually have a wide water supply range, many water supply objects, long water transmission lines, and many types and numbers of building components. The geographical environment and meteorological conditions of the areas along the line vary greatly. The water supply dispatching process of the project will inevitably face various internal and external risks. The water supply safety assessment of large-scale inter-basin water transfer projects is a systematic work with high complexity. It not only involves a wide range of professional fields, but also covers various aspects such as risk identification, evaluation and control.

[0003] At present, the existing technical methods mostly conduct risk assessment on a single component or a single risk factor of a large-scale water diversion project, or on a certain aspect of risk assessment work, such as risk identification, risk assessment indicator system construction, etc., or conduct engineering safety risk assessment on the project itself. There is no effective technical method that comprehensively considers the engineering composition characteristics, functional characteristics, management characteristics, etc. of large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects and conducts water supply safety risk assessment from a system perspective. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to solve the above technical problems, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for assessing the water supply safety risk of large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects. Taking into account the scale characteristics, water supply object characteristics, water transmission line characteristics, building composition characteristics, management attribute characteristics, etc. of large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects, the full process technical steps of water supply safety risk assessment of large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects are established, and various technical methods of each link are proposed to provide a basis for the prevention and control of engineering water supply safety risks.

[0005] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention is implemented by the following technical solutions:

[0006] A method process for water supply security risk assessment of large-scale inter-basin water transfer projects is divided into 8 steps, as described below.

[0007] (1) Clarify the professional objects involved in water supply safety risk assessment.

[0008] (2) Divide the evaluation units and select representative units and typical units.

[0009] Large-scale inter-basin water transfer projects have long water lines and many control buildings. The project composition and risk factors at different locations along the line have certain similarities. In order to avoid duplication of work and improve the efficiency of the assessment work, large-scale inter-basin water transfer projects are divided into sub-units based on control buildings (pump stations, gates, etc.), and several representative units and typical units are selected for assessment. Find the inherent laws of project water supply safety failure, and generalize them to the represented units based on law identification. Use SOM neural network (Self-Organization Map) to perform cluster analysis on each sub-unit to ensure that each assessment unit can find a representative unit. Otherwise, the selection of representative units should be adjusted until the requirements are met.

[0010] Unit selection is the basis for systematic risk assessment. The basic selection principles are as follows: ① The geographical distribution should be representative and should cover different river basin areas; ② The dispatching and control methods should be representative and should cover different control building types and control application methods; ③ The project characteristics should be representative and should cover different water transfer methods and cross-building types; ④ The project scale should be representative and should cover all levels of project scales; ⑤ The water supply impact should be representative. The wider the water supply impact range, the more water supply objects, the greater the importance of the water supply objects, and the greater the impact on water supply safety. The representative units should include all levels of impact ranges and administrative levels; ⑥ The management attributes should be representative and should cover different project management units; ⑦ Units that have experienced water supply failure incidents should be included in the key research; ⑧ Particularly important or special buildings should be evaluated separately as typical units.

[0011] (3) Identify risk events and sort out the risk factors that lead to risk events.

[0012] We sorted out and counted the water supply and operation and maintenance data since the project was put into operation, combined with similar project surveys and other methods, systematically analyzed the water supply failure events that have occurred in each representative unit and the possible water supply safety accidents, and preliminarily proposed a set of water supply safety risk events. According to the accident formation mechanism, from the four aspects of natural factors, human factors, engineering factors, and management factors, we used the fishbone diagram analysis method and fault tree analysis method, combined with expert consultation, to select and propose a list of risk factors for each risk event.

[0013] (4) Formulate standards for the possibility of risks and the severity of the consequences of risk events, and establish risk level standards.

[0014] The probability of a risk event occurring, or the probability classification, is based on the probability or possibility of the occurrence of the risk factors associated with it, and is determined through probability analysis, set operations, or comprehensive expert evaluation. Considering the probability level of safety risk events occurring in large-scale inter-basin water transfer projects, a probability level standard is formulated.

[0015] According to the water supply operation characteristics of large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects, the severity of the consequences of water supply safety risks is determined based on the degree of impact caused by risk events in terms of economic losses, water supply impact, ecological and environmental impact, social impact, etc. The severity level of the consequences in various aspects is divided into 5 levels with reference to the "National Emergency Response Plan for Public Emergencies" and "Grading Standards for Special and Major Public Safety Emergencies": Level 5 (catastrophic), Level 4 (major), Level 3 (serious), Level 2 (intermediate), and Level 1 (minor).

[0016] According to the matrix analysis method, the risk value of risk events is calculated. The risk level of each risk event is determined according to the risk value of the risk event and is divided into four levels: low risk, general risk, greater risk, and major risk.

[0017] (5) Risk analysis and evaluation of representative units and typical units

[0018] Risk analysis and evaluation are conducted on each representative unit and typical unit, and each unit adopts a consistent evaluation method. For units with scheduling and operation ledger data, the probability calculation method is used to obtain the probability of water supply safety failure caused by risk factors; for units with no data or little data, the expert scoring method is used to analyze the possibility of risk factors. Based on the probability of risk factor occurrence, the fault tree analysis method is used to calculate the probability of risk events. The formula for calculating the probability of risk event occurrence of the "AND" gate and "OR" gate fault tree is as follows:

[0019] AND gate fault tree:

[0020] OR gate fault tree:

[0021] Where: P(T) is the probability of occurrence of risk event T; P(x i ) is the risk factor x i probability of occurrence; k is the number of risk factors that lead to the occurrence of risk events. Among them, for the expert scoring method, P(x i ) According to the expert scoring results, the probability level standard in Table 1 is used for calculation. For example, if the scoring probability index is 1, the corresponding probability is 0.0001; if the scoring probability index is between 1 and 2, the probability is obtained by linear interpolation.

[0022] The expert scoring method is used to determine the severity of the consequences of each risk event, such as the economic losses, water supply impact, ecological and environmental impact, social impact, etc. caused by the risk event. The comprehensive severity level of the risk event is determined by the K value method, which reflects that the comprehensive impact of the risk is greater than each single risk, and also reflects that in addition to considering the risk of the event with the greatest impact, other risks are also considered. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0023]

[0024] Where:

[0025] L——Comprehensive severity level of the consequences of the risk event, rounded up to the nearest integer. If it is greater than 5, take 5;

[0026] A i ——Corresponding to the severity scores of different indicators such as economic losses, water supply impacts, ecological and environmental impacts, and social impacts.

[0027] k is a coefficient less than 1. For the water supply safety risk assessment of large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects, the value can be 0.1. This includes both the maximum risk consequence and the superposition of various risk consequences, and is suitable for the case where the analysis item i<10.

[0028] Using the matrix analysis method, the risk severity and the risk event possibility index are multiplied according to the following formula to obtain the risk value of the risk event:

[0029] R=P·L (4)

[0030] Where:

[0031] R—risk value of risk event, [1,25];

[0032] P—Probability index of risk event occurrence, which is divided into 5 levels;

[0033] L—Severity index of the consequences of risk events, which is divided into 5 levels.

[0034] The maximum value method is used to determine the water supply safety risk level of the assessment unit, that is, the maximum value of the water supply safety risk values ​​of each risk event is taken as the water supply safety risk of the unit.

[0035] (6) Risk analysis and evaluation by representative units

[0036] According to the possibility and severity analysis process of representative unit risk events, the main influencing factors of the water supply safety risk of the water diversion project assessment unit include the unit's water supply range, water transmission line length, water transmission flow, number of control buildings, number of water transmission channels, and number of water transmission buildings. Through multivariate linear fitting, the weight coefficient of each influencing factor is obtained. The value of the risk event of the represented unit refers to the representative unit risk value, and is multiplied by the weight coefficient according to the proportional relationship of the selected factors, as shown in the following formula:

[0037]

[0038] Where:

[0039] R——the water supply safety risk value of the represented unit;

[0040] S——representative unit water supply safety risk value;

[0041] j——the number of main influencing factors of unit water supply safety risk, such as water supply scope, water transmission line length, water transmission flow, number of water transmission buildings, number of water transmission channels and number of control buildings, then j=6;

[0042] μ k ——The weight coefficient of each influencing factor;

[0043] σ k ——For the kth influencing factor, the ratio of the factor value of the representative unit to the factor value of the corresponding representative unit, when σ k >2, take σ k =2.

[0044] (7) Risk Assessment Integration

[0045] Based on the risk assessment results of each sub-unit, the weight coefficient method is used to integrate the water supply safety risk assessment results of the entire water diversion project. Among them, the factors considered and the weight coefficients of each factor are consistent with those in step (6).

[0046]

[0047] Where:

[0048] D——the overall water supply safety risk value of the entire water diversion project;

[0049] S i ——Risk values ​​corresponding to different sub-units;

[0050] m——total number of subunits;

[0051] α i ——Corresponding to the spatial integration weight of each sub-unit, it is determined according to the proportion of the sub-unit’s water supply range, water transmission line length, water transmission flow rate, number of water transmission buildings, number of water transmission channels, and number of control buildings in the entire line.

[0052] (8) Propose risk response measures

[0053] According to the risk assessment level, take risk-graded response measures:

[0054] ① Level I risk is low risk and acceptable risk. The countermeasure is to pay attention and maintain normal monitoring frequency and daily inspections.

[0055] ② Level II risk is a general risk, which is a tolerable risk. The countermeasure is monitoring. On the basis of normal monitoring frequency and daily inspections, the monitoring and inspection frequency can be increased when necessary, and measures can be taken to control risks when necessary.

[0056] ③Level III risk is a relatively large risk and is an unacceptable risk. The countermeasure is to take measures. Risk prevention and control measures such as prevention, elimination, avoidance, and reduction should be taken for the main risk factors to reduce the risk level to a tolerable or acceptable level.

[0057] ④Level IV risk is a major risk, which is an extremely high risk. The countermeasures are to take emergency measures. It is necessary to take decisive prevention and control measures to avoid risks, and prepare emergency plans. Once a dangerous situation occurs, timely carry out rescue measures such as remediation and relief.

[0058] The method of the present invention is highly operable and easy to implement. It can systematically and comprehensively carry out water supply safety risk assessment for large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects, which is of great significance for reducing the probability and impact of risk events, implementing risk management and control, and improving the safety level of water supply projects. Its specific advantages and effects are as follows:

[0059] (1) The present invention proposes a technical procedure that covers the entire risk assessment process, from clarifying the assessment object, dividing the assessment unit to identifying risk events, dividing the risk level, and then to risk analysis and evaluation and integrated assessment, forming a complete and systematic assessment framework. This systematic assessment method can comprehensively consider the various characteristics and influencing factors of large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects, avoiding the previous one-sided assessment of only a single component or risk factor.

[0060] (2) The present invention selects representative units and typical units through SOM neural network cluster analysis, which effectively reduces the duplication of evaluation and improves the evaluation efficiency. At the same time, the selection principle of representative units ensures that they can fully reflect the risk characteristics of the entire project, providing a solid foundation for subsequent evaluation work.

[0061] (3) Combining water supply data and operation and maintenance data, a variety of methods such as fishbone diagram analysis, fault tree analysis and expert consultation are used to identify risk factors and risk events from multiple angles, ensuring the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the identification.

[0062] (4) The risk probability standard and the risk event consequence severity standard are formulated in detail, and the risk value is calculated through matrix analysis, and the risk level is divided accordingly. This method takes into account both the probability of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences, making the risk level division more scientific and reasonable.

[0063] (5) Probability calculation method, expert scoring method and multivariate linear fitting are used to quantitatively evaluate risks, and the overall evaluation results are obtained through integration through weight coefficient method. This method of quantitative evaluation and integrated analysis makes the evaluation results more objective and accurate, providing strong support for the formulation of risk response measures.

[0064] (6) According to the risk assessment level, different levels of risk response measures are proposed, including attention, monitoring, taking measures and taking emergency measures. These measures are targeted and operational, and can effectively reduce the probability and impact of risk events and improve the safety of water supply projects.

[0065] (7) The technical solution of the present invention is highly operational and easy to implement. It is not only applicable to large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects, but can also provide reference and reference for risk assessment of other similar projects. It has broad application prospects and promotion value. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0066] Figure 1 Flowchart of the implementation steps of the water supply security risk assessment method for large-scale inter-basin water transfer projects.

[0067] Figure 2 Fault tree diagram for risk factor analysis of insufficient flow capacity of water transfer channels.

[0068] Figure 3 Fault tree diagram for risk factor analysis of insufficient current capacity of controlled buildings.

[0069] Figure 4 Fault tree diagram for risk factor analysis of insufficient water delivery time. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0070] The specific implementation modes of the present invention are described below to facilitate those skilled in the art to understand the present invention. Obviously, the present invention is not limited to the scope of the specific implementation modes.

[0071] like Figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a method for assessing water supply safety risks in a large-scale inter-basin water diversion project. The present invention takes the first phase of the East Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project as an example to illustrate the specific implementation method of the method of the present invention.

[0072] The first phase of the East Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is one of the major strategic projects for building my country's overall "four horizontal and three vertical" water resources allocation pattern. The engineering task of the first phase of the East Route Project is to supplement the urban life, industry and environmental water use in the Shandong Peninsula and areas along the water diversion line such as Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui, while taking into account agriculture, shipping and other water use, and creating conditions for emergency water supply to Tianjin and Hebei. The project draws water from Sanjiangying on the main stream of the Yangtze River, pumps water step by step through 13 cascade pumping stations, and uses the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal and its parallel rivers to transport water. After being regulated by Hongze Lake, Luoma Lake, the South Four Lakes and Dongping Lake, it is divided into two routes: one route transports water northward through the Yellow River to the Datun Reservoir, and the other route transports water eastward to the Mishan Reservoir in Weihai. The total length of the water diversion line is 1,467 km, and the pumping flow from the river is 500m 3 / s. The first phase of the East Line project was officially put into operation on November 15, 2013, and has been in operation for more than ten years.

[0073] The water supply targets of the East Route Phase I project are diverse and of high importance, which places high demands on water supply safety. At the same time, the East Route Phase I project uses existing rivers and lakes to transport water, which is closely related to flood control, drainage, and shipping along the route, and the water supply scheduling of the project is very complicated. The project has not yet carried out a comprehensive water supply safety risk assessment. The technology of the present invention is used to implement a water supply safety risk assessment for the East Route Phase I project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.

[0074] (1) The water delivery capacity of the first phase of the East Line Project is the basis for ensuring water supply safety. It is clear that the professional object involved in the water supply safety risk assessment is the water delivery capacity of the project.

[0075] (2) Based on the control nodes of pump and sluice stations, important water transfer structure nodes, and river and lake intersection points, the original design unit division of the project and the local management agencies were considered, and 92 sub-assessment units were divided. Nine representative units and five typical units were selected.

[0076] ① There are 9 representative units: 4 in the Yangtze River to Luomahu section, of which 3 represent different water transmission lines, water transmission channels and pump station projects with different flow rates in the Jiangsu section, and 1 represents the regulation lake area; 2 in the Luomahu to Dongping Lake section, representing pump station projects with different flow rates, water transmission channels and different dispatching and operation modes in the Shandong section; 3 below Dongping Lake in the Shandong section, representing units with different water transmission lines, channels or rivers with different water transmission modes.

[0077] ② Five typical units: one unit at the head end that connects with the Yangtze River water source of the East Route Phase I Project; one controlling unit crossing the Yellow River in the middle, one lake without water storage and regulation function, and one lake with a pump station project built in the lake area; and one common part of the Shandong Lubei section and the North Extension Emergency Project of the East Route Phase I of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project at the end. The current status is affected by the hub layout, and some projects have not been put into use as expected.

[0078] (3) According to the connotation of water transfer capacity and the characteristics of the East Line Phase I project, three risk events were identified, namely, insufficient flow capacity of the water transfer channel, insufficient flow capacity of the control building, and insufficient water transfer time. 12 risk factors that lead to the risk event of insufficient flow capacity of the water transfer channel, 12 risk factors that lead to the risk event of insufficient flow capacity of the control building, and 5 risk factors that lead to the risk event of insufficient water transfer time were sorted out, as follows Figure 2-Figure 4 shown.

[0079] (4) Formulate standards for the possibility of risks and the severity of the consequences of risk events, and establish risk level standards.

[0080] The possibility of safety risk assessment events occurring in the first phase of the East Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is divided into five levels: extremely low, low, medium, high, and extremely high, as shown in Table 1. The severity of the consequences of water supply safety risks is divided into five levels, which are determined based on the degree of impact of the four aspects of economic losses, water supply impact, ecological and environmental impact, and social impact caused by the risk events, and are divided into five levels according to the severity of the events, as shown in Table 2. The formulation of risk level standards is shown in Table 3.

[0081] Table 1 Classification of risk event probability levels

[0082]

[0083] Table 2 Classification of severity levels of consequences of risk events

[0084]

[0085]

[0086] Table 3 Risk level assessment table

[0087]

[0088] According to the matrix analysis method, the risk value of risk events is between 1 and 25, and the risks are divided into four levels:

[0089] Low risk (R = [1-4]);

[0090] General risk (R = (4-9]);

[0091] Greater risk (R = (9-15]);

[0092] Significant risk (R = (15 ~ 25]).

[0093] (5) Risk analysis and evaluation of 9 representative units and 5 typical units.

[0094] The risk analysis method for each sub-assessment unit is the same and is illustrated using unit A.

[0095] ①Risk possibility analysis

[0096] Due to the large number of risk factors, the risk factors of each risk event are divided into three categories according to the degree of impact of the risk factors: 1) minimal impact on water delivery capacity, that is, the water delivery capacity decreases by less than 5%; 2) there is a certain impact on water delivery capacity, that is, the water delivery capacity decreases by 5% to 10%; 3) causing a serious decrease in water delivery capacity, that is, the water delivery capacity decreases by more than 10%. The probability index of the risk event is determined through the fault tree method "OR" gate.

[0097] Take the risk event "Insufficient water delivery capacity of control buildings" as an example. After classifying the risk factors in the list, there are 6 risk factors with minimal impact on water delivery capacity, and the probability of occurrence is P = 1-(1-P(x 1 ))×(1-P(x 2 ))×(1-P(x 3 ))×(1-P(x 4 ))×……×(1-P(x 6 ))=0.066. The probability index is 2.66. Among them, P(x i ) is the risk factor x i The probability of occurrence is calculated based on the expert scoring results using the probability level standard table. If the scoring probability index is 1, the corresponding probability is 0.0001. If it is between 1 and 2, linear interpolation is used to obtain the probability. P(x 1 )~P(x 6 ) are 0.051, 0.079, 0.039, 0.055, 0.070, and 0.004, respectively. There are 6 risk factors that have a certain impact on water delivery capacity, and the probability of occurrence is P = 1-(1-P(x 1 ))×(1-P(x 2 ))×(1-P(x 3 ))×(1-P(x 4 ))×……×(1-P(x 6 ))=0.031. The probability index is 2.31. There are 5 risk factors that seriously affect the water delivery capacity, and the probability of occurrence is P=1-(1-P(x 1 ))×(1-P(x 2 ))×(1-P(x 3 ))×(1-P(x 4 ))×……×(1-P(x 5 ))=0.027. The probability index of occurrence is 2.27.

[0098] In this way, the probability of occurrence of the other two risk events is calculated in turn.

[0099] ②Analysis of the severity of consequences

[0100] The comprehensive level of each risk event is determined based on the degree of impact in four aspects: economic losses, water supply impact, ecological and environmental impact, and social impact caused by the risk event. The expert scoring results are used to calculate the comprehensive level of each risk event using the k-value method. The summary results are shown in Table 4.

[0101] ③Risk analysis and evaluation

[0102] According to the analysis results of the possibility of occurrence and severity of the water delivery capacity risk event of unit A, the risk matrix method is used to determine the risk value and risk level of the water delivery capacity of unit A, as shown in Table 5. The maximum risk value of all risk events is used as the risk value of the water delivery capacity of this section, and the maximum value of the water delivery capacity of unit A is 5.88, which is level II and belongs to general risk.

[0103] Table 4 Expert scoring results of the severity level of consequences of water delivery capacity risk events

[0104]

[0105]

[0106] Table 5 Risk analysis evaluation results of representative unit A

[0107]

[0108] (6) Risk analysis and evaluation by representative units

[0109] First, a corresponding relationship table between representative units and represented units is established. Then, the risk analysis results of representative units are generalized by considering the six factors of the unit's water supply scope (number of counties and cities), water transmission line length, water transmission flow, number of control buildings, number of water transmission channels (single-line water transmission or double-line water transmission), and number of water transmission buildings (number of inverted siphons and culverts). The weight coefficients of each factor are 0.25, 0.20, 0.20, 0.15, 0.10, and 0.10, respectively.

[0110] According to formula (6), the ratio of the values ​​of the influencing factors of the represented unit to the value of the influencing factor of the representative unit is multiplied by the weight coefficient of the influencing factor and then summed up, and then multiplied by the risk value of the representative unit to obtain the risk value of the represented unit.

[0111] (7) Risk Assessment Integration

[0112] According to formula (7), the risk values ​​of each sub-unit of the East Route Phase I of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project are calculated and integrated to obtain the overall water supply safety risk assessment results of the East Route Phase I Project. Among them, the factors considered in the integration are consistent with the generalization of the representative unit of water transfer capacity to the general unit, that is, the water supply range, the length of the water transfer line, the size of the water transfer flow, the number of control buildings, the number of water transfer channels, and the number of water transfer buildings, a total of 6 factors. The weight coefficients of each factor are also consistent, that is, 0.25, 0.20, 0.20, 0.15, 0.10, and 0.10.

[0113] Based on the calculation results of the water supply safety risk value, it is determined to be a Level II risk.

[0114] (8) Propose risk response measures

[0115] According to the risk assessment level, Level II risk is a general risk, which is a tolerable risk. The risk classification response measure is monitoring. Maintain normal monitoring frequency and daily inspections, increase monitoring and inspection frequency when necessary, and take measures to control risks when necessary.

[0116] In some embodiments, a system for executing the above-mentioned large-scale inter-basin water diversion project water supply security risk assessment method includes:

[0117] Data collection module, used to collect water supply data and operation and maintenance data;

[0118] Risk assessment module, used to divide assessment units, identify risk events and risk factors, and conduct risk analysis and evaluation;

[0119] Risk assessment integration module, used to integrate the risk assessment results of each sub-unit;

[0120] The risk response measures generation module is used to generate corresponding risk response measures according to the risk level.

[0121] In some embodiments, a computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the above-mentioned water supply safety risk assessment method for large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects.

[0122] In some embodiments, a computer device includes a processor and a memory, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and when the processor executes the computer program, the above-mentioned water supply safety risk assessment method for large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects is implemented.

[0123] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

[0124] The contents not described in detail in the specification of the present invention belong to the prior art known to the professional and technical personnel in this field.

Claims

1. A method for assessing water supply safety risks in large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects, characterized in that: include: Clarify the professional objects involved in water supply safety risk assessment; Divide the assessment units and select representative and typical units; Identify risk events and sort out the risk factors that lead to risk events; Formulate standards for the likelihood of risks and the severity of the consequences of risk events, and establish risk level standards; Conduct risk analysis and evaluation on representative units and typical units; Conduct risk analysis and evaluation on the represented units based on the risk analysis results of the representative units; Risk assessment integration to obtain water supply safety risk assessment results for the entire water diversion project; Propose risk response measures.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The division and evaluation units, selected representative units and typical units include: Divide it into sub-units based on the control building; Several representative units and typical units are selected. The principles for unit selection are: representativeness of geographical location distribution, representativeness of scheduling and control methods, representativeness of project characteristics, representativeness of project scale, representativeness of water supply impact, representativeness of management attributes, and special attention is paid to units where water supply failure incidents have occurred and particularly important or special buildings.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The identification of risk events and sorting out risk factors include: We sorted out and counted the operation data of the project, combined with the investigation of similar projects, systematically analyzed the water supply failure events and possible safety accidents that have occurred in each representative unit, and preliminarily proposed a set of water supply safety risk events; According to the accident formation mechanism, from the four aspects of natural factors, human factors, engineering factors and management factors, the fishbone diagram analysis method and fault tree analysis method are used, combined with expert consultation method, to select and propose a list of risk factors for each risk event.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The risk analysis and evaluation includes: For units with scheduling and operation ledger data, the probability calculation method is used to obtain the probability of water supply safety failure caused by risk factors; For units with no data or little data, expert scoring method is used to analyze the possibility of risk factors occurring; Based on the probability of occurrence of risk factors, the fault tree analysis method is used to calculate the probability of risk events occurring; The expert scoring method is used to determine the severity of the individual impact consequences of each risk event, and the K value method is used to calculate the comprehensive severity level of the risk event; The matrix analysis method is used to calculate the risk value of risk events and determine the risk level.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The representative unit risk analysis and evaluation includes: According to the probability and severity analysis process of representative unit risk events, the main influencing factors of unit water supply safety risk are evaluated in the water diversion project, and the weight coefficients of each influencing factor are determined through multivariate linear fitting; With reference to the risk value of the representative unit, the risk value of the represented unit is calculated according to the proportional relationship and weight coefficient of the selected factors.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The risk assessment integration includes: The weight coefficient method is used to integrate the risk assessment results of each sub-unit to obtain the water supply safety risk value of the entire water diversion project.

7. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The proposed risk response measures include: According to the risk assessment level, take risk-graded response measures: Level I risk is low risk, which is an acceptable risk. The countermeasure is to pay attention to it and maintain normal monitoring frequency and daily inspections. Level II risk is a general risk, which is a tolerable risk. The countermeasure is monitoring. On the basis of normal monitoring frequency and daily inspections, the monitoring and inspection frequency can be increased when necessary. If necessary, measures can be taken to control the risk. Level III risk is a relatively large risk and is considered unacceptable. The countermeasure is to take measures. Risk prevention and control measures should be taken to prevent, eliminate, avoid, and reduce the main risk factors to reduce the risk level to a tolerable or acceptable level. Level IV risk is a major risk, which is an extremely high risk. The countermeasure is to take emergency measures. It is necessary to decisively take prevention and control measures to avoid risks, and at the same time prepare emergency plans. Once a dangerous situation occurs, timely remedial and relief measures must be taken.

8. A system for executing the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that: include: Data collection module, used to collect water supply data and operation and maintenance data; Risk assessment module, used to divide assessment units, identify risk events and risk factors, and conduct risk analysis and evaluation; Risk assessment integration module, used to integrate the risk assessment results of each sub-unit; The risk response measures generation module is used to generate corresponding risk response measures according to the risk level.

9. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, wherein when the program is executed by a processor, the evaluation method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

10. A computer device, comprising a processor and a memory, wherein a computer program is stored in the memory, and when the processor executes the computer program, the evaluation method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

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