Risk assessment method for secondary sudden environmental event

Abstract

The invention discloses a risk assessment method for a secondary sudden environmental event, and relates to the technical field of sudden disaster risk assessment. The method comprises the following steps: determining a to-be-evaluated area and forming a plurality of data sets; performing grid division on the to-be-evaluated area to obtain a plurality of to-be-evaluated sub-areas; calculating a comprehensive risk index in each to-be-evaluated sub-region; selecting a target evaluation area according to the comprehensive risk index; carrying out full life cycle monitoring and risk assessment on natural disasters in the target assessment area range, constructing a typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain and carrying out risk measurement; and outputting a comprehensive assessment result, performing risk assessment on the secondary disaster, and arranging disaster prevention measures according to the assessment result. According to the method, natural disasters such as typhoon, rainstorm and flood are monitored and subjected to risk assessment, precaution is carried out in advance according to assessment results, and economic losses and casualties caused by secondary sudden environmental events to coastal cities are avoided by comprehensively assessing the risk of the secondary sudden environmental events.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of sudden disaster risk assessment, and in particular relates to a risk assessment method for secondary sudden environmental events. Background Art

[0002] Typhoons, rainstorms and floods are all natural disasters. A typhoon is a strong tropical cyclone, usually accompanied by strong winds and heavy rains, and it can also trigger a series of secondary disasters, such as floods and storm surges; rainstorms refer to rainfall phenomena with extremely high precipitation in a short period of time, which can be the direct result of a typhoon or due to other meteorological conditions (such as fronts, rising air currents). In many cases, rainstorms can trigger secondary disasters such as floods and landslides; floods are water overflows caused by excessive precipitation, river overflows, dam breaches, etc., and are usually secondary disasters caused by weather phenomena such as rainstorms or typhoons.

[0003] Secondary environmental emergencies refer to secondary or subsequent disasters caused by other major disasters or environmental events. These events are usually further problems caused by environmental changes, structural damage or other factors after the original disaster. Since the impact of secondary environmental emergencies is severe and the losses are serious, risk assessment of secondary environmental emergencies caused by natural disasters has become an important measure for safety prevention and safety protection. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a risk assessment method for secondary sudden environmental events, which can be achieved through the following technical solutions: The present invention provides a method for risk assessment of a secondary environmental emergency, comprising the following steps: Identify the area to be assessed and collect various data within the area to form multiple data sets; Dividing the area to be evaluated into grids to obtain a plurality of sub-areas to be evaluated; Calculate a comprehensive risk index in each sub-area to be assessed based on multiple data sets; selecting a target assessment area based on the comprehensive risk index; Conduct full life cycle monitoring and risk assessment of natural disasters within the target assessment area and output the first assessment results; Construct a typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain within the target assessment area and measure the risk based on the disaster chain to output the second assessment result; Combining the first evaluation result and the second evaluation result to output a comprehensive evaluation result; Based on the comprehensive assessment results, a risk assessment of secondary disasters caused by natural disasters is performed and a secondary disaster risk assessment result is output; Disaster prevention measures are arranged based on the secondary disaster risk assessment results.

[0005] Preferably, a variety of data within the area is collected to form a plurality of data sets, including: Collect typhoon data, rainstorm data and flood data to form disaster datasets; Collect socio-economic data to form an economic and social dataset; Geographic information and environmental data are collected to form a geographic environmental dataset. Preferably, calculating the comprehensive risk index in each sub-region to be evaluated includes: Calculating a natural disaster risk index based on the disaster dataset; Calculating a disaster tolerance risk index based on the economic and social data set; Calculating an environmental disaster risk index based on the geographic environment data set; A comprehensive risk index is calculated based on the natural disaster risk index, the disaster bearing capacity risk index and the environmental disaster risk index.

[0006] Preferably, calculating the natural disaster risk index includes: Select a sub-area to be evaluated and calculate the coordinates of its center point; Based on the coordinates of each risk source and the center point of the sub-area to be assessed, determine the distance between the sub-area to be assessed and each risk source; Determine the risk intensity value of each risk source based on the distance, disaster coefficient and maximum impact range corresponding to each risk source; The maximum value of the risk intensity values ​​of all risk sources is determined as the natural disaster risk index of the sub-area to be assessed. Preferably, full life cycle monitoring of natural disasters is performed, including: Based on historical typhoon and rainstorm data, analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of typhoon and rainstorm and form the temporal and spatial evolution law of typical typhoon and rainstorm; Monitor typhoons throughout their life cycle, including their formation, movement, landfall, and extinction, based on real-time meteorological data and temporal and spatial evolution patterns; Analyze rainfall intensity and duration based on real-time meteorological data, and comprehensively analyze the danger level of rainstorm disasters based on the danger level of rainfall intensity and the danger level of rainfall duration; The probability of flood disasters is judged based on typhoon monitoring results and the degree of rainstorm danger. When typhoons and rainstorms cause floods, integrated air-space-ground emergency monitoring of typhoons, rainstorms and flood disasters throughout their life cycle is carried out.

[0007] Preferably, full life cycle emergency monitoring is carried out, specifically including: Based on the temporal and spatial evolution of typhoons, rainfall data, temporal and spatial distribution of typhoon rainstorms and their impact range, the danger level of rainstorm disasters, and ground hydrological data, the ground monitoring trigger factors are obtained and monitoring areas are delineated within the target assessment area; Collect background data in the monitoring area and establish a background database for the monitoring area; Use real-time meteorological data to build a flood demonstration model to represent the inundation range of flood disasters; Based on the monitoring area background database, the flood demonstration model is used to carry out disaster monitoring and disaster assessment. Preferably, the disaster risk assessment is performed, including: calculating the probability of landslide occurrence within the target assessment area and determining the landslide perimeter, specifically: Data mining was conducted on historical typhoon and rainstorm data and landslide disaster information to analyze the relationship between landslide occurrence and rainfall and calculate the rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence; Narrowing the area of ​​landslide identification by the rainfall threshold; Obtain real-time typhoon and rainstorm data and use it to conduct preliminary identification of landslides, and obtain the location, scale and occurrence time of preliminary identification of landslides; Calculating the probability of landslide occurrence based on real-time rainfall data and the rainfall threshold; Calculate the slope zoning of the target assessment area based on geographic information data to obtain the slope interval with the highest probability of landslide occurrence; The initially identified landslide range is corrected based on geographic information data and the temporal and spatial evolution of typical typhoon and rainstorm events to refine and determine the landslide boundary.

[0008] Preferably, the disaster risk assessment further includes: calculating the soil and water loss risk assessment value and the slope secondary disaster risk assessment value within the target assessment area, specifically: Divide the target assessment area into regions and slopes, and collect geographical environment data of each target sub-region and slope data of each slope; Establish a soil and water loss risk level database and a slope secondary disaster risk level database respectively; Based on the soil and water loss risk level database, the influencing factors of the geographical environment data in each target sub-area are obtained, and the soil and water loss risk assessment value of each target sub-area is calculated based on the influencing factors of the geographical environment data in each target sub-area; Based on the slope secondary disaster risk level database, the influencing factors of each slope data are obtained, and the slope secondary disaster risk assessment value of each target sub-area is calculated based on this. Preferably, a typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain is constructed and risk measurement is performed, including: Taking typhoon as the top layer of the disaster chain, the typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain is constructed; According to the typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain, the probability of disaster occurrence of each link in the disaster chain is calculated; Calculate the disaster loss of each link in the disaster chain according to the typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain; According to the typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain, the network vulnerability in the disaster chain is calculated; The risk value of each link in the disaster chain is calculated based on the probability of disaster occurrence, the amount of disaster loss, and network vulnerability.

[0009] Preferably, the risk value of each link in the disaster chain is expressed as: , (i,j=1,2,3,...,n); in, Represents the risk value of node i at time t; represents the probability that node j causes node i to occur; represents the disaster loss of node i at time t; represents the network vulnerability of edge j→i. The beneficial effects of the present invention are: (1) The present invention monitors and assesses the risks of natural disasters such as typhoons, rainstorms, and floods, and takes precautions in advance based on the assessment results. By comprehensively assessing the risks of secondary sudden environmental events, the present invention avoids the economic losses and casualties caused by secondary sudden environmental events to coastal cities.

[0010] (2) The present invention first determines the area to be evaluated and collects various data in the area to be evaluated to form multiple data sets, including: collecting typhoon data, rainstorm data and flood data to form a disaster data set; collecting socio-economic data to form an economic-social data set; collecting geographic information and environmental data to form a geographic-environmental data set; then the area to be evaluated is grid-divided to obtain a number of sub-areas to be evaluated; then, based on the multiple data sets, a comprehensive risk index in each sub-area to be evaluated is calculated, including: calculating a natural disaster risk index based on the disaster data set; calculating a disaster bearing capacity risk index based on the economic-social data set; calculating an environmental disaster risk index based on the geographic-environmental data set; and calculating a natural disaster risk index, a disaster bearing capacity risk index and a disaster bearing capacity risk index based on the natural disaster risk index and the disaster bearing capacity risk index. The invention calculates a comprehensive risk index by combining the natural disaster risk index and the environmental disaster risk index; then selects a target assessment area according to the above comprehensive risk index; then conducts full life cycle monitoring and risk assessment of disasters within the target assessment area and outputs a first assessment result; and constructs a typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain within the target assessment area and measures the risk based on the disaster chain to output a second assessment result; outputs a comprehensive assessment result by combining the first assessment result and the second assessment result; then conducts a risk assessment on the secondary disasters caused by the natural disasters based on the comprehensive assessment result and outputs a secondary disaster risk assessment result; finally, arranges disaster prevention measures based on the secondary disaster risk assessment result to ensure the safety of coastal cities. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0011] For better understanding and implementation, the technical solution of the present application is described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0012] Figure 1 A flowchart of the steps of a risk assessment method for secondary sudden environmental events provided in an embodiment of the present application; Figure 2 A flowchart of the steps for calculating the comprehensive risk index provided in an embodiment of the present application; Figure 3 A flowchart of the steps for calculating the natural disaster risk index provided in an embodiment of the present application; Figure 4 A flowchart of the steps for conducting full life cycle monitoring of disasters provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0013] In order to further explain the technical means and effects taken by the present invention to achieve the predetermined invention purpose, exemplary embodiments will be described in detail here, and examples thereof are shown in the accompanying drawings. When the following description refers to the drawings, unless otherwise indicated, the same numbers in different drawings represent the same or similar elements. The implementations described in the following exemplary embodiments do not represent all implementations consistent with the present application. Instead, they are only examples of methods and systems consistent with some aspects of the present application as detailed in the attached claims.

[0014] The terms used in this application are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit this application. The singular forms of "a", "said" and "the" used in this application and the appended claims are also intended to include plural forms unless the context clearly indicates other meanings. It should also be understood that the term "and / or" used in this article refers to any or all possible combinations of one or more associated listed items.

[0015] The specific implementation methods, features and effects of the present invention are described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and preferred embodiments.

[0016] Example 1 See also Figure 1 The present invention provides a method for risk assessment of secondary environmental emergencies, comprising the following steps: S1, determine the area to be evaluated and collect various data in the area to form multiple data sets; S2, dividing the area to be evaluated into grids to obtain a plurality of sub-areas to be evaluated; S3, calculating a comprehensive risk index in each sub-area to be assessed based on multiple data sets; S4, selecting a target assessment area according to the comprehensive risk index; S5, conduct full life cycle monitoring and risk assessment of natural disasters within the target assessment area and output the first assessment result; S6, constructing a typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain within the target assessment area and performing risk measurement based on the disaster chain to output a second assessment result; S7, combining the first evaluation result and the second evaluation result to output a comprehensive evaluation result; S8, based on the comprehensive assessment result, performing risk assessment on secondary disasters caused by natural disasters and outputting secondary disaster risk assessment results; S9, arranging disaster prevention measures based on the secondary disaster risk assessment results.

[0017] Specifically, since natural disasters such as typhoons, heavy rains, and floods can have a huge impact and harm on coastal / offshore cities, including but not limited to economic losses, casualties, urban building losses, environmental damage (such as soil erosion, damage to forest vegetation, water pollution, siltation, landslides and mud-rock flows, etc.), damage to crops, and damage to urban power systems and infrastructure, in order to avoid major losses and casualties, it is necessary to monitor and assess the risks of natural disasters such as typhoons, heavy rains, and floods, and take early precautions based on the assessment results, comprehensively assess the risks of secondary sudden environmental events, and provide a basis for formulating effective response and prevention strategies. Therefore, the present application provides the following scheme to implement a risk assessment method for secondary sudden environmental disasters caused mainly by typhoons, rainstorms and floods, specifically: first determine the area to be assessed and collect various data in the area to be assessed to form multiple data sets, including: collecting typhoon data, rainstorm data and flood data to form a disaster data set; collecting socio-economic data to form an economic-social data set; collecting geographic information and environmental data to form a geographic-environmental data set; then gridding the area to be assessed to obtain a number of sub-areas to be assessed; then calculating the comprehensive risk index in each sub-area to be assessed based on the multiple data sets, including: calculating the natural disaster risk index based on the disaster data set; calculating the disaster bearing capacity risk index based on the economic-social data set; and calculating the comprehensive risk index based on the geographic-environmental data set. The invention relates to a method for carrying out disaster prevention and control of natural disasters, wherein the disaster risk index of the target area is calculated based on the natural disaster risk index, the disaster bearing capacity risk index and the environmental disaster risk index; the comprehensive risk index is calculated based on the natural disaster risk index, the disaster bearing capacity risk index and the environmental disaster risk index; the target assessment area is then selected according to the comprehensive risk index; the whole life cycle monitoring and risk assessment of the disaster are then carried out within the target assessment area, and the first assessment result is output; a typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain is constructed within the target assessment area, and the risk is measured based on the disaster chain to output the second assessment result; the comprehensive assessment result is output by combining the first assessment result and the second assessment result; the risk assessment of the secondary disasters caused by the natural disasters is then carried out based on the comprehensive assessment result, and the secondary disaster risk assessment result is output; and finally, disaster prevention measures are arranged based on the secondary disaster risk assessment result.

[0018] This application can divide the entire risk assessment process into three stages. The main task of the first stage is to select the target assessment area (steps S1-S4), the main task of the second stage is to conduct risk assessment in the target assessment area (steps S5-S8), and the main task of the third stage is to arrange some disaster prevention measures based on the risk assessment results (step S9). Through the above three stages, this application realizes real-time monitoring, risk assessment and real-time prevention of secondary emergencies, and systematically evaluates the risks of secondary sudden environmental events related to typhoons, rainstorms and floods, thereby ensuring the safety of coastal cities and providing support for subsequent safety precautions.

[0019] In one embodiment provided in the present application, a variety of data in a region are collected to form a plurality of data sets, including: Collect typhoon data, rainstorm data and flood data to form disaster datasets; Collect socio-economic data to form an economic and social dataset; Geographic information and environmental data are collected to form a geographic environmental dataset.

[0020] Specifically, in the disaster data set, typhoon data include: typhoon name, typhoon formation date and time, typhoon dissipation or downgrade date and time, typhoon center latitude and longitude coordinates, typhoon intensity information (including central air pressure, maximum wind speed, wind speed distribution: wind speed at different distances), path and movement information (including movement speed, movement direction, path map showing the typhoon movement trajectory, usually including future forecast path), satellite image: typhoon cloud map obtained from meteorological satellite, showing cloud structure and development; radar echo: precipitation distribution and intensity data obtained by meteorological radar, affected area and impact range: the area affected by the typhoon, including direct and indirect affected areas, etc.; rainstorm data include precipitation (accumulated precipitation: total precipitation in a specific time period, precipitation intensity: precipitation rate in a specific period of time, precipitation distribution: precipitation in different areas The data include precipitation distribution in different regions or locations), precipitation duration (precipitation start time: the specific time when the rainstorm starts precipitation, precipitation end time: the specific time when the rainstorm stops precipitation, precipitation duration: the total duration of precipitation), temperature data during precipitation (temperature: temperature data during precipitation, which may affect the precipitation type, humidity: changes in relative humidity and absolute humidity, which affect precipitation formation and intensity, wind speed: wind speed data during rainstorms, which may affect precipitation distribution and intensity); flood data include hydrological data (water level: water level data of rivers, lakes, reservoirs and other water bodies; flow: flow data of water flow; precipitation: precipitation data before and after the flood; soil moisture: soil moisture conditions that affect the occurrence of floods), historical flood event records: data on flood events that occurred in the past, including time, location, duration, intensity, etc.

[0021] The socioeconomic data in the economic and social data set is used to understand the distribution of affected people, economic activities, public facilities, etc.; the meteorological data in the geographic environment data set is used to obtain meteorological-related information, such as precipitation, temperature changes, etc.; the geographic environment information is used to obtain regional topography, land use, infrastructure distribution and other data.

[0022] In summary, the disaster data set includes typhoon path data, precipitation and China Meteorological Administration site data, typhoon frequency, typhoon intensity, etc.; the economic and social data set includes GDP density, population density, building density, etc.; the geographic environment data set includes soil type index, land utilization rate, vegetation coverage rate, etc.

[0023] like Figure 2 As shown, in one embodiment provided in the present application, calculating the comprehensive risk index in each sub-area to be evaluated includes: Calculating a natural disaster risk index based on the disaster dataset; Calculating a disaster tolerance risk index based on the economic and social data set; Calculating an environmental disaster risk index based on the geographic environment data set; A comprehensive risk index is calculated based on the natural disaster risk index, the disaster bearing capacity risk index and the environmental disaster risk index.

[0024] like Figure 3 As shown, in one embodiment provided in the present application, calculating the natural disaster risk index includes: Select a sub-area to be evaluated and calculate the coordinates of its center point; Based on the coordinates of each risk source and the center point of the sub-area to be assessed, determine the distance between the sub-area to be assessed and each risk source; Determine the risk intensity value of each risk source based on the distance, disaster coefficient and maximum impact range corresponding to each risk source; The maximum value of the risk intensity values ​​of all risk sources is determined as the natural disaster risk index of the sub-area to be assessed.

[0025] Specifically, this embodiment calculates a comprehensive risk index for each sub-area to be evaluated, and then selects the area with the highest comprehensive risk index among multiple comprehensive risk indexes as the target area to be evaluated, eliminating interference from multiple factors, thereby ensuring the accuracy of subsequent risk assessment.

[0026] like Figure 4 As shown, in one embodiment provided in the present application, full life cycle monitoring of natural disasters is performed, including: Based on historical typhoon and rainstorm data, analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of typhoon and rainstorm and form the temporal and spatial evolution law of typical typhoon and rainstorm; Monitor typhoons throughout their life cycle, including their formation, movement, landfall, and extinction, based on real-time meteorological data and temporal and spatial evolution patterns; Analyze rainfall intensity and duration based on real-time meteorological data, and comprehensively analyze the danger level of rainstorm disasters based on the danger level of rainfall intensity and the danger level of rainfall duration; The probability of flood disasters is judged based on typhoon monitoring results and the degree of rainstorm danger. When typhoons and rainstorms cause floods, integrated air-space-ground emergency monitoring of typhoons, rainstorms and flood disasters throughout their life cycle is carried out.

[0027] In an embodiment provided in the present application, full life cycle emergency monitoring is performed, specifically including: Based on the temporal and spatial evolution of typhoons, rainfall data, temporal and spatial distribution of typhoon rainstorms and their impact range, the danger level of rainstorm disasters, and ground hydrological data, the ground monitoring trigger factors are obtained and monitoring areas are delineated within the target assessment area; Collect background data in the monitoring area and establish a background database for the monitoring area; Use real-time meteorological data to build a flood demonstration model to represent the inundation range of flood disasters; Based on the monitoring area background database, the flood demonstration model is used to carry out disaster monitoring and disaster assessment.

[0028] Specifically, real-time meteorological data refers to data used to reflect real-time changes in the weather, mainly typhoon-related data and rainstorm-related data; ground hydrological data include ground water conditions such as river runoff and lake water level; background data include cultivated land, residential land, population density, emergency routes, flood control projects, and flood risk maps; disaster monitoring includes: monitoring of disaster factors such as important flood control projects and road damage; disaster assessment includes: conducting disaster assessments on the affected population in flood-stricken areas, affected cultivated land, emergency routes, damage to flood control projects, and the risk of danger in key river sections.

[0029] In an embodiment provided in the present application, disaster risk assessment is performed, including: calculating the probability of landslide occurrence within the target assessment area and determining the landslide perimeter, specifically: Data mining was conducted on historical typhoon and rainstorm data and landslide disaster information to analyze the relationship between landslide occurrence and rainfall and calculate the rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence; Narrowing the area of ​​landslide identification by the rainfall threshold; Obtain real-time typhoon and rainstorm data and use it to conduct preliminary identification of landslides, and obtain the location, scale and occurrence time of preliminary identification of landslides; Calculating the probability of landslide occurrence based on real-time rainfall data and the rainfall threshold; Calculate the slope zoning of the target assessment area based on geographic information data to obtain the slope interval with the highest probability of landslide occurrence; The initially identified landslide range is corrected based on geographic information data and the temporal and spatial evolution of typical typhoon and rainstorm events to refine and determine the landslide boundary.

[0030] Specifically, this embodiment performs risk assessment by calculating the probability of landslide occurrence and the landslide perimeter in the target assessment area, and can reflect the risk in the current target assessment area through the landslide occurrence situation.

[0031] In an embodiment provided in the present application, performing disaster risk assessment further includes: calculating a soil erosion risk assessment value and a slope secondary disaster risk assessment value within a target assessment area, specifically: Divide the target assessment area into regions and slopes, and collect geographical environment data of each target sub-region and slope data of each slope; Establish a soil and water loss risk level database and a slope secondary disaster risk level database respectively; Based on the soil and water loss risk level database, the influencing factors of the geographical environment data in each target sub-area are obtained, and the soil and water loss risk assessment value of each target sub-area is calculated based on the influencing factors of the geographical environment data in each target sub-area; Based on the slope secondary disaster risk level database, the influencing factors of each slope data are obtained, and the slope secondary disaster risk assessment value of each target sub-area is calculated based on this.

[0032] Specifically, this embodiment also reflects the risks within the current target assessment area by calculating the soil and water loss risk assessment value and the slope secondary disaster risk assessment value within the target assessment area.

[0033] In an embodiment provided in the present application, a typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain is constructed and risk measurement is performed, including: Taking typhoon as the top layer of the disaster chain, the typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain is constructed; According to the typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain, the probability of disaster occurrence of each link in the disaster chain is calculated; Calculate the disaster loss of each link in the disaster chain according to the typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain; According to the typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain, the network vulnerability in the disaster chain is calculated; The risk value of each link in the disaster chain is calculated based on the probability of disaster occurrence, the amount of disaster loss, and network vulnerability.

[0034] In an embodiment provided in the present application, the risk value of each link in the disaster chain is expressed as: , (i,j=1,2,3,...,n); in, Represents the risk value of node i at time t; represents the probability that node j causes node i to occur; represents the disaster loss of node i at time t; represents the network vulnerability of edge j→i.

[0035] Specifically, this embodiment conducts targeted and specific analysis of the risks of various disasters by comprehensively considering the probability of disaster occurrence, network vulnerability and the amount of disaster losses, thereby reflecting the evolution trend of various disasters, providing data support for subsequent disaster prevention and intervention, and further ensuring the accuracy of secondary sudden environmental risk assessment.

[0036] In the above embodiments, the description of each embodiment has its own emphasis. For parts that are not described or recorded in detail in a certain embodiment, reference can be made to the relevant descriptions of other embodiments.

[0037] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and does not limit the present invention in any form. Although the present invention has been disclosed as a preferred embodiment as above, it is not used to limit the present invention. Any technical personnel in this field can make some changes or modify the technical contents disclosed above into equivalent embodiments without departing from the scope of the technical solution of the present invention. However, any simple modification, equivalent change and modification made to the above embodiments according to the technical essence of the present invention without departing from the content of the technical solution of the present invention still fall within the scope of the technical solution of the present invention.

Claims

1. A risk assessment method for secondary environmental emergencies, characterized in that: The steps include: Identify the area to be assessed and collect various data within the area to form multiple data sets; Dividing the area to be evaluated into grids to obtain a plurality of sub-areas to be evaluated; Calculate a comprehensive risk index in each sub-area to be assessed based on multiple data sets; selecting a target assessment area based on the comprehensive risk index; Conduct full life cycle monitoring and risk assessment of natural disasters within the target assessment area and output the first assessment results; Construct a typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain within the target assessment area and measure the risk based on the disaster chain to output the second assessment result; Combining the first evaluation result and the second evaluation result to output a comprehensive evaluation result; Based on the comprehensive assessment results, a risk assessment of secondary disasters caused by natural disasters is performed and a secondary disaster risk assessment result is output; Disaster prevention measures are arranged based on the secondary disaster risk assessment results.

2. The method for risk assessment of secondary environmental emergencies according to claim 1, characterized in that: A variety of data is collected across the region to form multiple datasets, including: Collect typhoon data, rainstorm data and flood data to form disaster datasets; Collect socio-economic data to form an economic and social dataset; Geographic information and environmental data are collected to form a geographic environmental dataset.

3. The method for risk assessment of secondary environmental emergencies according to claim 2, characterized in that: Calculate the comprehensive risk index for each sub-area to be assessed, including: Calculating a natural disaster risk index based on the disaster dataset; Calculating a disaster tolerance risk index based on the economic and social data set; Calculating an environmental disaster risk index based on the geographic environment data set; A comprehensive risk index is calculated based on the natural disaster risk index, the disaster bearing capacity risk index and the environmental disaster risk index.

4. The method for risk assessment of secondary environmental emergencies according to claim 3, characterized in that: Calculate the natural disaster risk index, including: Select a sub-area to be evaluated and calculate the coordinates of its center point; Based on the coordinates of each risk source and the center point of the sub-area to be assessed, determine the distance between the sub-area to be assessed and each risk source; Determine the risk intensity value of each risk source based on the distance, disaster coefficient and maximum impact range corresponding to each risk source; The maximum value of the risk intensity values ​​of all risk sources is determined as the natural disaster risk index of the sub-area to be assessed.

5. The method for risk assessment of secondary environmental emergencies according to claim 1, characterized in that: Conduct full life cycle monitoring of natural disasters, including: Based on historical typhoon and rainstorm data, analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of typhoon and rainstorm and form the temporal and spatial evolution law of typical typhoon and rainstorm; Monitor typhoons throughout their life cycle, including their formation, movement, landfall, and extinction, based on real-time meteorological data and temporal and spatial evolution patterns; Analyze rainfall intensity and duration based on real-time meteorological data, and comprehensively analyze the danger level of rainstorm disasters based on the danger level of rainfall intensity and the danger level of rainfall duration; The probability of flood disasters is judged based on typhoon monitoring results and the degree of rainstorm danger. When typhoons and rainstorms cause floods, integrated air-space-ground emergency monitoring of typhoons, rainstorms and flood disasters throughout their life cycle is carried out.

6. The method for risk assessment of secondary environmental emergencies according to claim 5, characterized in that: Conduct emergency monitoring throughout the life cycle, including: Based on the temporal and spatial evolution of typhoons, rainfall data, temporal and spatial distribution of typhoon rainstorms and their impact range, the danger level of rainstorm disasters, and ground hydrological data, the ground monitoring trigger factors are obtained and monitoring areas are delineated within the target assessment area; Collect background data in the monitoring area and establish a background database for the monitoring area; Use real-time meteorological data to build a flood demonstration model to represent the inundation range of flood disasters; Based on the monitoring area background database, the flood demonstration model is used to carry out disaster monitoring and disaster assessment.

7. The method for risk assessment of secondary environmental emergencies according to claim 1, characterized in that: Conduct disaster risk assessment, including: calculating the probability of landslides within the target assessment area and determining the landslide perimeter, specifically: Data mining was conducted on historical typhoon and rainstorm data and landslide disaster information to analyze the relationship between landslide occurrence and rainfall and calculate the rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence; Narrowing the area of ​​landslide identification by the rainfall threshold; Obtain real-time typhoon and rainstorm data and use it to conduct preliminary identification of landslides, and obtain the location, scale and occurrence time of preliminary identification of landslides; Calculating the probability of landslide occurrence based on real-time rainfall data and the rainfall threshold; Calculate the slope zoning of the target assessment area based on geographic information data to obtain the slope interval with the highest probability of landslide occurrence; The initially identified landslide range is corrected based on geographic information data and the temporal and spatial evolution of typical typhoon and rainstorm events to refine and determine the landslide boundary.

8. The method for risk assessment of secondary environmental emergencies according to claim 1, characterized in that: Conducting disaster risk assessment also includes: calculating the soil and water loss risk assessment value and the slope secondary disaster risk assessment value within the target assessment area, specifically: Divide the target assessment area into regions and slopes, and collect geographical environment data of each target sub-region and slope data of each slope; Establish a soil and water loss risk level database and a slope secondary disaster risk level database respectively; Based on the soil and water loss risk level database, the influencing factors of the geographical environment data in each target sub-area are obtained, and the soil and water loss risk assessment value of each target sub-area is calculated based on the influencing factors of the geographical environment data in each target sub-area; Based on the slope secondary disaster risk level database, the influencing factors of each slope data are obtained, and the slope secondary disaster risk assessment value of each target sub-area is calculated based on this.

9. The method for risk assessment of secondary environmental emergencies according to claim 1, characterized in that: Construct a typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain and measure the risk, including: Taking typhoon as the top layer of the disaster chain, the typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain is constructed; According to the typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain, the probability of disaster occurrence of each link in the disaster chain is calculated; Calculate the disaster loss of each link in the disaster chain according to the typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain; According to the typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain, the network vulnerability in the disaster chain is calculated; The risk value of each link in the disaster chain is calculated based on the probability of disaster occurrence, the amount of disaster loss, and network vulnerability.

10. The method for risk assessment of secondary environmental emergencies according to claim 9, characterized in that: The risk value of each link in the disaster chain is expressed as: ,(i,j=1,2,3,...,n); in, Represents the risk value of node i at time t; represents the probability that node j causes node i to occur; represents the disaster loss of node i at time t; represents the network vulnerability of edge j→i.

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