Distribution line fault assessment method, system and equipment in typhoon disaster and medium

Abstract

The invention provides a distribution line fault assessment method, system, equipment and medium in typhoon disasters, and the method comprises the steps: dividing a target typhoon into a plurality of typhoon wind fields, and obtaining a wind disaster influence coefficient and a wind speed influence coefficient of the target typhoon to the typhoon wind fields; after the maximum wind speed radius and the maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field area are obtained by combining a preset maximum wind speed radius model and a preset maximum average wind speed model, the wind speed value of each area point position of each typhoon wind field area is obtained through analysis according to the maximum wind speed radius and the maximum average wind speed; gridding each distribution line in the target typhoon influence area to obtain a plurality of distribution line grid elements, and obtaining the fault probability of each grid element according to the wind speed value of the area point position and the maximum defensive wind speed of the element design; and performing series analysis on the fault probabilities of all the grid elements in each distribution line to obtain the fault probability of the distribution line in the wind field area. According to the invention, based on difference analysis of different typhoon areas, the fineness and comprehensiveness of fault assessment analysis are effectively improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of power systems and automation technologies, and in particular to a method, system, computer equipment and storage medium for evaluating distribution line faults in typhoon disasters. Background Art

[0002] Typhoon is a severe natural disaster that can cause large-scale power outages due to failures in distribution lines and equipment. Affected by factors such as global climate change, the frequency of extreme typhoon disasters has increased year by year, seriously affecting the safe operation of the power grid. Therefore, it is urgent to study the evaluation and analysis methods of the impact of typhoon disasters on distribution lines, so as to provide theoretical guidance for ensuring the dispatching and operation of power systems, and provide necessary technical support for the safe and stable operation of power systems.

[0003] At present, the research on the impact assessment of typhoon disasters on distribution lines mainly includes: simulating the probability of damage of power components under typhoon disasters through the Monte Carlo method; establishing a probability model of power grid disconnection and tower collapse based on the disaster resistance strength of the tower based on the wind field model or establishing a fault model of the transmission system based on the component vulnerability curve; using a combination of model-driven and data-driven methods to predict the probability of tower collapse and disconnection of transmission and distribution lines under typhoon disasters; using a rainstorm pressure model to study the dynamic impact of rainstorms on transmission towers, calculating the critical tower collapse displacement of the tower top under different wind speeds through simulation, and fitting the tower vulnerability curve using data, etc. Although the existing research can meet the assessment needs of the impact of typhoon disasters on distribution lines under certain scenarios, none of them considers the differences in the maximum wind speed, maximum wind speed radius and distribution line component failure rate in different typhoon areas, resulting in the analysis of the impact of distribution line failures not being detailed and comprehensive enough, and the evaluation results of the impact of typhoons on distribution line failures obtained are deviated from the actual typhoon scenario, which in turn affects its application value. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for evaluating distribution line faults in typhoon disasters. The method divides a target typhoon into a plurality of typhoon wind field areas including a typhoon eye area, a cloud wall area and a spiral rain belt area, and performs corresponding distribution line fault probability analysis based on the differences in wind speed, wind speed radius and line component failure rate in different typhoon wind field areas. The method solves the problem that the existing typhoon disaster impact assessment on distribution lines does not take into account the differences in different typhoon wind field areas, resulting in the distribution line fault impact analysis not being detailed and comprehensive enough, and the assessment results not being consistent with the actual typhoon scene. The method can effectively improve the precision and comprehensiveness of the distribution line fault assessment analysis in typhoon disasters, make the analysis and research closer to the typhoon disaster scene, and thus improve the accuracy and practicality of the distribution line fault probability assessment in typhoon disasters.

[0005] In order to achieve the above objectives, it is necessary to provide a method, system, computer equipment and storage medium for evaluating distribution line faults in typhoon disasters in response to the above technical problems.

[0006] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for evaluating distribution line faults in a typhoon disaster, the method comprising the following steps:

[0007] Divide the target typhoon into wind field areas to obtain a plurality of corresponding typhoon wind field areas; the typhoon wind field areas include a typhoon eye area, a cloud wall area and a spiral rain belt area;

[0008] Obtaining a wind disaster impact coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind farm area, and obtaining a maximum wind speed radius corresponding to each typhoon wind farm area according to the wind disaster impact coefficient and a preset maximum wind speed radius model;

[0009] Obtaining a wind speed influence coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind farm area, and obtaining a maximum average wind speed corresponding to each typhoon wind farm area according to the wind speed influence coefficient and a preset maximum average wind speed model;

[0010] According to the maximum wind speed radius and maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field area, the corresponding wind speed value of the area point is obtained;

[0011] Gridding each distribution line in the target typhoon-affected area to obtain a plurality of distribution line grid elements, and obtaining the failure probability of each grid element according to the wind speed value at the area point and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the element;

[0012] The failure probabilities of all grid elements in each distribution line are analyzed in series to obtain the corresponding failure probability of the wind farm area distribution line.

[0013] Furthermore, the preset maximum wind speed radius model includes a maximum wind speed radius model for the eye area, a maximum wind speed radius model for the cloud wall area, and a maximum wind speed radius model for the rain band area;

[0014] The maximum wind speed radius corresponding to each typhoon wind field area is obtained according to the wind disaster impact coefficient and the preset maximum wind speed radius model, including:

[0015] According to the wind disaster impact coefficient, the maximum wind speed radius model of the eye area and the preset reference maximum wind speed radius, the corresponding maximum wind speed radius of the eye area is obtained; the maximum wind speed radius of the eye area is expressed as:

[0016]

[0017] in, Indicates the maximum wind speed radius of the eye area; R w,max Indicates the preset reference maximum wind speed radius; K Rrepresents the wind disaster impact coefficient;

[0018] According to the wind disaster impact coefficient, the cloud wall area maximum wind speed radius model and the preset reference maximum wind speed radius, the corresponding cloud wall area maximum wind speed radius is obtained; the cloud wall area maximum wind speed radius is expressed as:

[0019]

[0020] in, Indicates the maximum wind speed radius of the cloud wall area;

[0021] According to the wind disaster impact coefficient, the maximum wind speed radius model of the rain belt area and the preset reference maximum wind speed radius, the corresponding maximum wind speed radius of the rain belt area is obtained; the maximum wind speed radius of the rain belt area is expressed as:

[0022]

[0023] in, Indicates the maximum wind speed radius of the rain belt area.

[0024] Furthermore, the preset maximum average wind speed model includes a maximum average wind speed model in the eye area, a maximum average wind speed model in the cloud wall area, and a maximum average wind speed model in the rain band area;

[0025] The maximum average wind speed corresponding to each typhoon wind field area is obtained according to the wind speed influence coefficient and the preset maximum average wind speed model, including:

[0026] According to the wind speed influence coefficient, the maximum average wind speed model of the eye area and the preset reference maximum average wind speed, the corresponding maximum average wind speed of the eye area is obtained; the maximum average wind speed of the eye area is expressed as:

[0027]

[0028] in, Indicates the maximum average wind speed in the eye area; V w,max Indicates the preset reference maximum average wind speed; K V represents the wind speed influence coefficient;

[0029] According to the wind speed influence coefficient, the maximum average wind speed model of the cloud wall area and the preset reference maximum average wind speed, the corresponding maximum average wind speed of the cloud wall area is obtained; the maximum average wind speed of the cloud wall area is expressed as:

[0030]

[0031] in, Indicates the maximum average wind speed in the cloud wall area;

[0032] According to the wind speed influence coefficient, the maximum average wind speed model of the rain band area and the preset reference maximum average wind speed, the corresponding maximum average wind speed of the rain band area is obtained; the maximum average wind speed of the rain band area is expressed as:

[0033]

[0034] in, Indicates the maximum average wind speed in the rain belt area.

[0035] Furthermore, the step of obtaining the corresponding wind speed value at the zone point according to the maximum wind speed radius and the maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field zone includes:

[0036] Obtaining the wind field distribution parameters of the target typhoon and the distance between the zone point and the typhoon center;

[0037] The corresponding wind speed value of the zone point is obtained according to the wind field distribution parameters, the distance between the zone point and the typhoon center, the preset zone point location wind speed model, and the maximum wind speed radius and maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field area.

[0038] Furthermore, the wind speed model at the preset zone point position is expressed as:

[0039]

[0040] Among them, d i,j represents the distance from the jth point in the i-th typhoon wind field to the typhoon center, and i=a,b,c, a,b and c represent the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area and spiral rain belt area respectively, j=1,2,…,J, J represents the total number of points in the typhoon wind field; represents the maximum wind speed radius of the i-th typhoon wind field; represents the maximum average wind speed in the i-th typhoon wind field; X1 and X2 represent wind field distribution parameters; It represents the wind speed at the jth point in the i-th typhoon wind field.

[0041] Furthermore, the step of obtaining the failure probability of each grid element according to the wind speed value at the zone point and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the element includes:

[0042] The wind speed value at each zone point and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the component are input into the preset grid component failure probability model to obtain the failure probability of each grid component; the grid component failure probability is expressed as:

[0043]

[0044] in, represents the grid element failure probability of the kth grid unit of the mth distribution line at time t in the i-th typhoon wind field area, and i = a, b, c, a, b and c represent the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area and spiral rain belt area respectively; and V represents the set of zone point locations corresponding to the kth grid unit in the i-th typhoon wind field area; re Indicates the maximum wind speed that the component is designed to withstand; represents the wind speed at the jth zone point corresponding to the kth grid cell in the i-th typhoon wind field; It represents the probability correlation coefficient of failure of the kth grid unit of the mth distribution line at time t in the i-th typhoon wind farm area; K9 represents the empirical coefficient.

[0045] Furthermore, the failure probability of the power distribution line in the wind farm area is expressed as:

[0046]

[0047] in, represents the grid element failure probability of the kth grid unit of the mth distribution line at time t in the i-th typhoon wind field area, and i = a, b, c, a, b and c represent the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area and spiral rain belt area respectively; Represents the set of grid cells of the mth distribution line in the i-th typhoon wind area.

[0048] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a system for evaluating distribution line faults in typhoon disasters, the system comprising:

[0049] A wind field area division module is used to divide the wind field area of ​​the target typhoon to obtain a corresponding plurality of typhoon wind fields; the typhoon wind field area includes a typhoon eye area, a cloud wall area and a spiral rain belt area;

[0050] A wind speed radius acquisition module is used to obtain the wind disaster impact coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind farm area, and obtain the maximum wind speed radius corresponding to each typhoon wind farm area according to the wind disaster impact coefficient and a preset maximum wind speed radius model;

[0051] An average wind speed acquisition module is used to obtain the wind speed influence coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind field, and obtain the maximum average wind speed corresponding to each typhoon wind field according to the wind speed influence coefficient and a preset maximum average wind speed model;

[0052] The point wind speed acquisition module is used to obtain the corresponding wind speed value of the point location according to the maximum wind speed radius and the maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field area;

[0053] The component failure assessment module is used to grid each distribution line in the target typhoon impact area to obtain multiple distribution line grid elements, and obtain the failure probability of each grid element according to the wind speed value at the area point and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the element;

[0054] The area line fault assessment module is used to analyze the failure probability of all grid elements in each distribution line in series to obtain the corresponding wind farm area distribution line failure probability.

[0055] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the steps of the above method when executing the computer program.

[0056] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, wherein the computer program implements the steps of the above method when executed by a processor.

[0057] The above-mentioned application provides a method, system, computer equipment and storage medium for evaluating distribution line faults in typhoon disasters. The method is used to divide the wind field area of ​​the target typhoon, obtain the corresponding multiple typhoon wind field areas including the typhoon eye area, the cloud wall area and the spiral rain belt area, and then obtain the wind disaster impact coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind field area. According to the wind disaster impact coefficient and the preset maximum wind speed radius model, the maximum wind speed radius corresponding to each typhoon wind field area is obtained, and the wind speed impact coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind field area is obtained. According to the wind speed impact coefficient and the preset maximum average wind speed model, the maximum average wind speed corresponding to each typhoon wind field area is obtained. Then, according to the maximum wind speed radius and the maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field area, the corresponding wind speed value at the zone point position is obtained, and each distribution line in the target typhoon impact area is gridded to obtain multiple distribution line grid elements, and the failure probability of each grid element is obtained according to the zone point position wind speed value and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the element, and the failure probability of all grid elements in each distribution line is analyzed in series to obtain the corresponding wind field area distribution line failure probability. Technical solution. Compared with the existing technology, the distribution line fault assessment method in typhoon disasters is based on the differentiated analysis of wind speed, wind speed radius and line component failure rate in different typhoon wind field areas. It can not only improve the precision and comprehensiveness of the distribution line fault assessment analysis in typhoon disasters, making the analysis and research closer to typhoon disaster scenarios, but also improve the accuracy and practicality of distribution line fault probability assessment in typhoon disasters, provide theoretical guidance for ensuring the dispatching and operation of the power system, and provide necessary technical support for the safe and stable operation of the power system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0058] Figure 1is a flow chart of a method for evaluating a power distribution line fault in a typhoon disaster according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a distribution line fault assessment system in a typhoon disaster according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0060] Figure 3 It is a diagram of the internal structure of a computer device in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0061] In order to make the purpose, technical scheme and beneficial effects of the present application clearer, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. Obviously, the embodiments described below are part of the embodiments of the present invention and are only used to illustrate the present invention, but are not used to limit the scope of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0062] The method for evaluating the failure of distribution lines in typhoon disasters provided by the present invention can be understood as the current situation that the evaluation of the impact of typhoon disasters on distribution lines does not take into account the differences in different typhoon wind field areas, resulting in the analysis of the impact of distribution line failures not being detailed and comprehensive enough, and the evaluation results are inconsistent with the actual typhoon scene. The proposed method for evaluating the probability of distribution line failures in typhoon disasters is divided into multiple typhoon wind field areas including the typhoon eye area, the cloud wall area and the spiral rain belt area, and the corresponding distribution line failure probability analysis is performed based on the differences in wind speed, wind speed radius and line element failure rate in different typhoon wind field areas. The method can be applied to a terminal or a server, which can not only improve the precision and comprehensiveness of the evaluation and analysis of distribution line failures in typhoon disasters, making the analysis and research closer to the typhoon disaster scene, but also improve the accuracy and practicality of the evaluation of the probability of distribution line failures in typhoon disasters. Among them, the terminal can be, but is not limited to, various personal computers, laptops, smart phones, tablet computers and portable wearable devices, and the server can be implemented with an independent server or a server cluster composed of multiple servers. The server can use the distribution line fault assessment method during typhoon disasters provided by the present invention to perform efficient and accurate distribution line fault probability assessment according to actual application requirements, and use the corresponding distribution line fault probability assessment results for subsequent server research, or transmit them to the terminal for terminal users to view and analyze; the following embodiments will explain the distribution line fault assessment method during typhoon disasters of the present invention in detail.

[0063] In one embodiment, Figure 1 As shown, a method for evaluating distribution line faults in typhoon disasters is provided, comprising the following steps:

[0064] S11. Divide the target typhoon into wind field areas to obtain a plurality of corresponding typhoon wind field areas; wherein the typhoon wind field area can be understood as a refined research area divided based on the difference in wind strength at different wind field areas within the typhoon impact area. This embodiment preferably divides the typhoon wind field area into a typhoon eye area, a cloud wall area and a spiral rain belt area based on meteorological research and the analysis of the typhoon's horizontal structure, wherein the typhoon eye area has the mildest wind, while the cloud wall area is the location with the strongest wind.

[0065] S12. Obtain the wind disaster impact coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind farm area, and obtain the maximum wind speed radius corresponding to each typhoon wind farm area according to the wind disaster impact coefficient and the preset maximum wind speed radius model; wherein, the wind disaster impact coefficient can be understood as the influence coefficient of the degree of wind disaster that the typhoon can cause in the eye area, cloud wall area and spiral rain belt area; correspondingly, the preset maximum wind speed radius model can be understood as a mathematical model established to evaluate the maximum wind speed radius of each typhoon wind farm area. In order to perform a refined analysis of the maximum wind speed radius of different typhoon wind farm areas, this embodiment preferably establishes corresponding maximum wind speed radius models for the eye area, the maximum wind speed radius model for the cloud wall area and the maximum wind speed radius model for the rain belt area based on the difference analysis of the maximum wind speed radius of different typhoon wind farm areas.

[0066] Specifically, the maximum wind speed radius corresponding to each typhoon wind field area is obtained according to the wind disaster impact coefficient and the preset maximum wind speed radius model, including:

[0067] According to the wind disaster impact coefficient, the maximum wind speed radius model of the eye area and the preset reference maximum wind speed radius, the corresponding maximum wind speed radius of the eye area is obtained; wherein the preset reference maximum wind speed radius can be understood as a reference value used as a basis for calculating the maximum wind speed radius of each typhoon wind field area, which can be calculated based on the actual central pressure difference after the typhoon lands, and is expressed as:

[0068]

[0069] In the formula,

[0070] ΔF(t)=ΔF0-K4[1+sin(γ-θ)]t

[0071] Among them, K1, K2, K3 and K4 are empirical coefficients, which are obtained through experiments; ΔF(t) is the actual central pressure difference at time t after the typhoon landed; ΔF0 is the central pressure difference before the typhoon landed; θ is the moving direction of the typhoon; γ is the angle between the typhoon and the moving direction of the typhoon when the typhoon landed on the coastline; t is the time after the typhoon landed; R w,max Indicates the preset reference maximum wind speed radius.

[0072] In this embodiment, the maximum wind speed radius model of the eye area is preferably constructed based on the wind characteristics of the eye area of ​​the typhoon, and the maximum wind speed radius of the eye area is expressed as:

[0073]

[0074] in, Indicates the maximum wind speed radius of the eye area; R w,max Indicates the preset reference maximum wind speed radius; K R Represents the wind disaster impact coefficient.

[0075] According to the wind disaster impact coefficient, the cloud wall area maximum wind speed radius model and the preset reference maximum wind speed radius, the corresponding cloud wall area maximum wind speed radius is obtained; wherein, the preset reference maximum wind speed radius is the same as the relevant content in the calculation of the maximum wind speed radius of the eye area, which will not be repeated here; this embodiment preferably constructs a cloud wall area maximum wind speed radius model based on the research situation of the maximum wind speed radius of the cloud wall area, and the maximum wind speed radius of the cloud wall area is expressed as follows:

[0076]

[0077] in, Indicates the maximum wind speed radius of the cloud wall area.

[0078] According to the wind disaster impact coefficient, the maximum wind speed radius model of the rain belt area and the preset reference maximum wind speed radius, the corresponding maximum wind speed radius of the rain belt area is obtained; wherein, the preset reference maximum wind speed radius is the same as the relevant content in the calculation of the maximum wind speed radius of the eye area, and will not be repeated here; this embodiment preferably constructs a maximum wind speed radius model of the rain belt area based on the research situation of the maximum wind speed radius of the rain belt area, and the maximum wind speed radius of the rain belt area is expressed as follows:

[0079]

[0080] in, Indicates the maximum wind speed radius of the rain belt area.

[0081] This embodiment establishes a corresponding maximum wind speed radius calculation model based on the characteristics of the maximum wind speed radius of different typhoon wind farms, realizes the refined analysis and quantification of the maximum wind speed radius of different typhoon wind farms, and can effectively improve the accuracy and reliability of the calculation of the maximum wind speed radius of typhoon wind farms.

[0082] S13. Obtain the wind speed influence coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind area, and obtain the maximum average wind speed corresponding to each typhoon wind area according to the wind speed influence coefficient and the preset maximum average wind speed model; wherein, the wind speed influence coefficient can be understood as the coefficient value of the typhoon's influence on the wind speed in the eye area, cloud wall area and spiral rain belt area; correspondingly, the preset maximum average wind speed model can be understood as a mathematical model established to evaluate the maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind area; considering that the maximum average wind speed generally occurs at the maximum wind speed radius, in order to perform a refined analysis of the maximum average wind speeds of different typhoon wind areas, this embodiment preferably establishes corresponding maximum average wind speed models for the eye area, cloud wall area and rain belt area based on the difference analysis of the maximum average wind speeds of different typhoon wind areas.

[0083] Specifically, obtaining the maximum average wind speed corresponding to each typhoon wind field area according to the wind speed influence coefficient and the preset maximum average wind speed model includes:

[0084] According to the wind speed influence coefficient, the maximum average wind speed model of the eye area and the preset reference maximum average wind speed, the corresponding maximum average wind speed of the eye area is obtained; wherein the preset reference maximum average wind speed can be understood as a reference value used as a basis for calculating the maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field area, which can be calculated based on the maximum wind speed gradient of the typhoon and the overall moving speed of the typhoon, and is expressed as:

[0085] V w,max =K5V gd +K6V ms

[0086] In the formula,

[0087]

[0088] Among them, K5, K6, K7 and K8 are empirical coefficients, and their values ​​are obtained through experiments; V gd V is the maximum gradient wind speed of the typhoon at time t; ms is the overall moving speed of the typhoon, which can be obtained from the typhoon forecast information released by the meteorological department; ζ is the geostrophic parameter; V w,max It is the preset reference maximum average wind speed.

[0089] In this embodiment, the maximum average wind speed model of the eye area is preferably constructed based on the wind characteristics of the eye area of ​​the typhoon, and the maximum average wind speed of the eye area is expressed as:

[0090]

[0091] in, Indicates the maximum average wind speed in the eye area; V w,maxIndicates the preset reference maximum average wind speed; K V Represents the wind speed influence coefficient.

[0092] According to the wind speed influence coefficient, the maximum average wind speed model of the cloud wall area and the preset reference maximum average wind speed, the corresponding maximum average wind speed of the cloud wall area is obtained; wherein, the preset reference maximum average wind speed is the same as the relevant content in the calculation of the maximum average wind speed of the eye area, which will not be repeated here; this embodiment preferably constructs a maximum average wind speed model of the cloud wall area based on the research on the maximum average wind speed of the cloud wall area, and the maximum average wind speed of the cloud wall area is expressed as follows:

[0093]

[0094] in, Indicates the maximum average wind speed in the cloud wall area.

[0095] According to the wind speed influence coefficient, the maximum average wind speed model of the rain band area and the preset reference maximum average wind speed, the corresponding maximum average wind speed of the rain band area is obtained; wherein, the preset reference maximum average wind speed is the same as the relevant content in the calculation of the maximum wind speed radius of the eye area, and will not be repeated here; this embodiment preferably constructs a maximum average wind speed model of the rain band area based on the research on the maximum average wind speed of the rain band area, and the maximum average wind speed of the rain band area is expressed as follows:

[0096]

[0097] in, Indicates the maximum average wind speed in the rain belt area.

[0098] This embodiment establishes a corresponding maximum average wind speed calculation model based on the maximum average wind speed radius characteristics of different typhoon wind farms, realizes the refined analysis and quantification of the maximum average wind speeds in different typhoon wind farms, and can effectively improve the accuracy and reliability of the maximum average wind speed calculation in typhoon wind farms.

[0099] S14. According to the maximum wind speed radius and the maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field area, the corresponding zone point location wind speed value is obtained; wherein, the zone point location wind speed can be understood as the wind speed value corresponding to each wind field location point in each typhoon wind field area; taking into account the different characteristics of the point location wind speeds inside and outside the maximum wind speed radius of each typhoon wind field area, in order to ensure the accuracy of the calculation of the wind speed value of each zone point location, this embodiment preferably constructs a corresponding preset zone point location wind speed model based on whether the distance of the zone point location from the typhoon center exceeds the maximum wind speed radius of the corresponding typhoon wind field area, and obtains the corresponding zone point location wind speed value accordingly.

[0100] Specifically, the step of obtaining the corresponding wind speed value at the zone point according to the maximum wind speed radius and the maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field zone includes:

[0101] Obtain the wind field distribution parameters of the target typhoon and the distance between the zone point and the typhoon center; wherein the wind field distribution parameters can be obtained through existing experimental methods, which will not be described in detail here; the distance between the zone point and the typhoon center can be understood as the distance between a point in a typhoon wind field area where wind speed calculation is required and the target typhoon center, which can be a straight-line distance.

[0102] According to the wind field distribution parameters, the distance between the zone point and the typhoon center, the preset zone point location wind speed model, and the maximum wind speed radius and the maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field area, the corresponding zone point location wind speed value is obtained; in this embodiment, preferably, the preset zone point location wind speed model is expressed as:

[0103]

[0104] Among them, d i,j represents the distance from the jth point in the i-th typhoon wind field to the typhoon center, and i=a,b,c, a,b and c represent the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area and spiral rain belt area respectively, j=1,2,…,J, J represents the total number of points in the typhoon wind field; represents the maximum wind speed radius of the i-th typhoon wind field; represents the maximum average wind speed in the i-th typhoon wind field; X1 and X2 represent wind field distribution parameters; It represents the wind speed at the jth point in the i-th typhoon wind field.

[0105] In practical applications, the wind speed values ​​at various points in the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area, and spiral rain belt area are and They are determined by the following formulas:

[0106]

[0107]

[0108] Where, d a,j d b,j and d c,j Respectively represent the distance between the jth point in the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area, and spiral rain belt area and the typhoon center;

[0109] Based on the characteristics that the wind speed at the point locations of different typhoon wind farms is related to the maximum wind speed radius and the maximum average wind speed, and the wind speeds at the points inside and outside the maximum wind speed radius are different, this embodiment constructs a wind speed model for the point locations of different typhoon wind farms to evaluate the wind speeds of points at different wind farm locations. This can ensure the efficiency and scientific rationality of the wind speed evaluation at the point locations of each typhoon wind farm, as well as the accuracy and reliability of the wind speed evaluation at the point locations of each typhoon wind farm.

[0110] S15. Gridding each distribution line in the target typhoon-affected area to obtain a plurality of distribution line grid elements, and obtaining the failure probability of each grid element according to the wind speed value at the zone point location and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the element; wherein, the distribution line grid element can be understood as a line grid unit obtained by dividing each distribution line in the target typhoon-affected area in longitude and latitude according to the average span length; since the grid area is small enough relative to the typhoon, it can be assumed that the geographical location of each grid unit is consistent with the intensity of the typhoon disaster.

[0111] Considering that the failure probability of the line grid unit is related to the wind speed at the grid unit line position and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the component, in this embodiment, preferably, a vulnerability curve is used to express the failure probability of the grid element as a function of the wind speed at the grid unit line position and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the component; specifically, the step of obtaining the failure probability of each grid element according to the wind speed value at the zone point position and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the component includes:

[0112] The wind speed value at each zone point and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the component are input into the preset grid component failure probability model to obtain the failure probability of each grid component; the grid component failure probability is expressed as:

[0113]

[0114] in, represents the grid element failure probability of the kth grid unit of the mth distribution line at time t in the i-th typhoon wind field area, and i = a, b, c, a, b and c represent the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area and spiral rain belt area respectively; and V represents the set of zone point locations corresponding to the kth grid unit in the i-th typhoon wind field area; re Indicates the maximum wind speed that the component is designed to withstand; represents the wind speed at the jth zone point corresponding to the kth grid cell in the i-th typhoon wind field; It represents the probability correlation coefficient of failure of the kth grid unit of the mth distribution line at time t in the i-th typhoon wind farm area; K9 represents the empirical coefficient.

[0115] In practical applications, the probability of failure of the kth grid element of the mth distribution line in the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area, and spiral rain belt area at time t is and Respectively expressed as:

[0116]

[0117]

[0118] in, and are the wind speed at the jth zone point corresponding to the kth grid cell in the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area and spiral rain belt area; and are the probability correlation coefficients with the failure of the kth grid element of the mth distribution line at time t in the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area, and spiral rain belt area, respectively; is the coefficient related to the influence of wind speed, n=1,2,…,9.

[0119] This embodiment grids the distribution lines in different typhoon wind farms, and uses a vulnerability curve to express the failure probability of grid elements as a function of the wind speed at the grid unit line location and the maximum wind speed that the element is designed to withstand, thereby achieving a more refined analysis of distribution line failures at a finer granularity, thereby providing reliable data support for the failure probability assessment of distribution lines in typhoon wind farms.

[0120] S16. Conduct a series analysis on the failure probabilities of all grid elements in each distribution line to obtain the corresponding wind farm area distribution line failure probability; wherein, the wind farm area distribution line failure probability can be understood as being based on the characteristics that each grid element in the distribution network constitutes a distribution line in series, and when any element of any distribution line fails, the entire distribution line will be shut down (i.e., a distribution line failure occurs), and the series system reliability evaluation of each distribution line in each typhoon wind farm area is performed to obtain the line failure probability value in the wind farm area; specifically, the wind farm area distribution line failure probability is expressed as:

[0121]

[0122] in, represents the grid element failure probability of the kth grid unit of the mth distribution line at time t in the i-th typhoon wind field area, and i = a, b, c, a, b and c represent the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area and spiral rain belt area respectively; Represents the set of grid cells of the mth distribution line in the i-th typhoon wind area.

[0123] In practical applications, the probability of failure of the mth distribution line at time t in the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area, and spiral rain belt area is and Respectively expressed as:

[0124]

[0125] in, are the grid unit sets of the mth distribution line in the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area, and spiral rain belt area respectively.

[0126] The embodiment of the present application divides the target typhoon into wind field areas to obtain a plurality of corresponding typhoon wind fields including a typhoon eye area, a cloud wall area and a spiral rain belt area, and then obtains the wind disaster impact coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind field area, and obtains the maximum wind speed radius corresponding to each typhoon wind field area according to the wind disaster impact coefficient and a preset maximum wind speed radius model, and obtains the wind speed impact coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind field area, and obtains the maximum average wind speed corresponding to each typhoon wind field area according to the wind speed impact coefficient and a preset maximum average wind speed model, and then obtains the corresponding wind speed value of the zone point position according to the maximum wind speed radius and the maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field area, and grids each distribution line in the target typhoon-affected area to obtain a plurality of distribution line grid elements, and obtains each grid element according to the zone point position wind speed value and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the element The fault probability, as well as the scheme of analyzing the failure probability of all grid elements in each distribution line in series to obtain the corresponding wind farm area distribution line failure probability, effectively solves the application defects that the existing typhoon disaster impact assessment on the distribution line does not take into account the differences in different typhoon wind farm areas, resulting in the analysis of the impact of distribution line failures not being detailed and comprehensive enough, and the assessment results are inconsistent with the actual typhoon scene. Based on the differentiated analysis of wind speed, wind speed radius and line element failure rate in different typhoon wind farm areas, it can not only improve the precision and comprehensiveness of the distribution line fault assessment analysis in typhoon disasters, making the analysis and research closer to typhoon disaster scenes, but also improve the accuracy and practicality of the distribution line failure probability assessment under typhoon disasters, provide theoretical guidance for ensuring the dispatching and operation of the power system, and provide necessary technical support for the safe and stable operation of the power system.

[0127] It should be noted that although the steps in the above flowchart are shown in sequence according to the arrows, these steps are not necessarily executed in the order indicated by the arrows. Unless otherwise specified in this document, there is no strict order restriction for the execution of these steps, and these steps can be executed in other orders.

[0128] In one embodiment, Figure 2 As shown, a distribution line fault assessment system in a typhoon disaster is provided, the system comprising:

[0129] The wind field area division module 1 is used to divide the wind field area of ​​the target typhoon to obtain a plurality of corresponding typhoon wind fields; the typhoon wind field area includes a typhoon eye area, a cloud wall area and a spiral rain belt area;

[0130] A wind speed radius acquisition module 2 is used to obtain the wind disaster impact coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind farm area, and obtain the maximum wind speed radius corresponding to each typhoon wind farm area according to the wind disaster impact coefficient and a preset maximum wind speed radius model;

[0131] The average wind speed acquisition module 3 is used to obtain the wind speed influence coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind field area, and obtain the maximum average wind speed corresponding to each typhoon wind field area according to the wind speed influence coefficient and a preset maximum average wind speed model;

[0132] Point wind speed acquisition module 4, used to obtain the corresponding wind speed value of the point location according to the maximum wind speed radius and the maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field area;

[0133] The component failure assessment module 5 is used to grid each distribution line in the target typhoon impact area to obtain a plurality of distribution line grid elements, and obtain the failure probability of each grid element according to the wind speed value at the area point and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the element;

[0134] The area line fault assessment module 6 is used to analyze the failure probability of all grid elements in each distribution line in series to obtain the corresponding wind farm area distribution line failure probability.

[0135] For the specific limitations of the distribution line fault assessment system during typhoon disasters, please refer to the limitations of the distribution line fault assessment method during typhoon disasters above, and the corresponding technical effects can also be equivalently obtained, which will not be repeated here. Each module in the above-mentioned distribution line fault assessment system during typhoon disasters can be implemented in whole or in part through software, hardware and a combination thereof. The above-mentioned modules can be embedded in or independent of the processor in the computer device in the form of hardware, or can be stored in the memory of the computer device in the form of software, so that the processor can call and execute the operations corresponding to the above modules.

[0136] Figure 3 FIG. 1 shows an internal structure diagram of a computer device in an embodiment, and the computer device may specifically be a terminal or a server. Figure 3As shown, the computer device includes a processor, a memory, a network interface, a display, a camera and an input device connected through a system bus. Among them, the processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The network interface of the computer device is used to communicate with an external terminal through a network connection. When the computer program is executed by the processor, a method for evaluating the fault of a distribution line in a typhoon disaster is implemented. The display screen of the computer device can be a liquid crystal display screen or an electronic ink display screen, and the input device of the computer device can be a touch layer covered on the display screen, or a key, trackball or touchpad set on the computer device housing, or an external keyboard, touchpad or mouse, etc.

[0137] It can be understood by those skilled in the art that Figure 3 The structure shown in the figure is only a block diagram of a part of the structure related to the present application scheme, and does not constitute a limitation on the computer device to which the present application scheme is applied. The specific computing device may include more or fewer components than shown in the figure, or combine certain components, or have the same component arrangement.

[0138] In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the steps of the above method are implemented when the processor executes the computer program.

[0139] In one embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the above method are implemented.

[0140] In summary, the embodiments of the present invention provide a method, system, computer device and storage medium for evaluating power distribution line faults in typhoon disasters. The method for evaluating power distribution line faults in typhoon disasters realizes the division of the wind field area of ​​the target typhoon, obtains the corresponding multiple typhoon wind fields including the typhoon eye area, the cloud wall area and the spiral rain belt area, and then obtains the wind disaster impact coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind field area, obtains the maximum wind speed radius corresponding to each typhoon wind field area according to the wind disaster impact coefficient and the preset maximum wind speed radius model, and obtains the wind speed impact coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind field area, and obtains the maximum average wind speed corresponding to each typhoon wind field area according to the wind speed impact coefficient and the preset maximum average wind speed model, then obtains the corresponding wind speed value at the zone point according to the maximum wind speed radius and the maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field area, and A technical solution is proposed in which each distribution line in the target typhoon-affected area is gridded to obtain multiple distribution line grid elements, the failure probability of each grid element is obtained according to the wind speed value at the area point and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the element, and the failure probability of all grid elements in each distribution line is analyzed in series to obtain the corresponding distribution line failure probability in the wind farm area. This method is based on the differentiated analysis of wind speed, wind speed radius and line element failure rate in different typhoon wind farm areas. It can not only improve the precision and comprehensiveness of distribution line fault assessment and analysis in typhoon disasters, making the analysis and research closer to typhoon disaster scenarios, but also improve the accuracy and practicality of distribution line failure probability assessment in typhoon disasters, providing theoretical guidance for ensuring the dispatching and operation of the power system, and providing necessary technical support for the safe and stable operation of the power system.

[0141] Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, and the same or similar parts of each embodiment can be directly referred to each other, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. In particular, for the system embodiment, since it is basically similar to the method embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can be referred to the partial description of the method embodiment. It should be noted that the technical features of the above-mentioned embodiments can be combined arbitrarily. In order to make the description concise, all possible combinations of the technical features in the above-mentioned embodiments are not described. However, as long as there is no contradiction in the combination of these technical features, they should be considered to be within the scope of this specification.

[0142] The above-mentioned embodiments only express several preferred implementation modes of the present application, and the descriptions thereof are relatively specific and detailed, but they cannot be understood as limiting the scope of the invention patent. It should be pointed out that, for ordinary technicians in the technical field, several improvements and substitutions can be made without departing from the technical principles of the present invention, and these improvements and substitutions should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the patent of the present application shall be based on the protection scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating distribution line faults in typhoon disasters, characterized in that: The method comprises the following steps: Divide the target typhoon into wind field areas to obtain a plurality of corresponding typhoon wind field areas; the typhoon wind field areas include a typhoon eye area, a cloud wall area and a spiral rain belt area; Obtaining a wind disaster impact coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind farm area, and obtaining a maximum wind speed radius corresponding to each typhoon wind farm area according to the wind disaster impact coefficient and a preset maximum wind speed radius model; Obtaining a wind speed influence coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind farm area, and obtaining a maximum average wind speed corresponding to each typhoon wind farm area according to the wind speed influence coefficient and a preset maximum average wind speed model; According to the maximum wind speed radius and maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field area, the corresponding wind speed value of the area point is obtained; Gridding each distribution line in the target typhoon-affected area to obtain a plurality of distribution line grid elements, and obtaining the failure probability of each grid element according to the wind speed value at the area point and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the element; The failure probabilities of all grid elements in each distribution line are analyzed in series to obtain the corresponding wind farm area distribution line failure probability.

2. The method for evaluating power distribution line faults in typhoon disasters according to claim 1, characterized in that: The preset maximum wind speed radius model includes a maximum wind speed radius model in the eye area, a maximum wind speed radius model in the cloud wall area, and a maximum wind speed radius model in the rain band area; The maximum wind speed radius corresponding to each typhoon wind field area is obtained according to the wind disaster impact coefficient and the preset maximum wind speed radius model, including: According to the wind disaster impact coefficient, the maximum wind speed radius model of the eye area and the preset reference maximum wind speed radius, the corresponding maximum wind speed radius of the eye area is obtained; the maximum wind speed radius of the eye area is expressed as: in, Indicates the maximum wind speed radius of the eye area; R w,max Indicates the preset reference maximum wind speed radius; K R represents the wind disaster impact coefficient; According to the wind disaster impact coefficient, the cloud wall area maximum wind speed radius model and the preset reference maximum wind speed radius, the corresponding cloud wall area maximum wind speed radius is obtained; the cloud wall area maximum wind speed radius is expressed as: in, Indicates the maximum wind speed radius of the cloud wall area; According to the wind disaster impact coefficient, the maximum wind speed radius model of the rain belt area and the preset reference maximum wind speed radius, the corresponding maximum wind speed radius of the rain belt area is obtained; the maximum wind speed radius of the rain belt area is expressed as: in, Indicates the maximum wind speed radius of the rain belt area.

3. The method for evaluating power distribution line faults in typhoon disasters according to claim 1, characterized in that: The preset maximum average wind speed model includes the maximum average wind speed model of the eye area, the maximum average wind speed model of the cloud wall area and the maximum average wind speed model of the rain band area; The maximum average wind speed corresponding to each typhoon wind field area is obtained according to the wind speed influence coefficient and the preset maximum average wind speed model, including: According to the wind speed influence coefficient, the maximum average wind speed model of the eye area and the preset reference maximum average wind speed, the corresponding maximum average wind speed of the eye area is obtained; the maximum average wind speed of the eye area is expressed as: in, Indicates the maximum average wind speed in the eye area; V w,max Indicates the preset reference maximum average wind speed; K V represents the wind speed influence coefficient; According to the wind speed influence coefficient, the maximum average wind speed model of the cloud wall area and the preset reference maximum average wind speed, the corresponding maximum average wind speed of the cloud wall area is obtained; the maximum average wind speed of the cloud wall area is expressed as: in, Indicates the maximum average wind speed in the cloud wall area; According to the wind speed influence coefficient, the maximum average wind speed model of the rain band area and the preset reference maximum average wind speed, the corresponding maximum average wind speed of the rain band area is obtained; the maximum average wind speed of the rain band area is expressed as: in, Indicates the maximum average wind speed in the rain belt area.

4. The method for evaluating power distribution line faults in typhoon disasters according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the corresponding wind speed value at the zone point according to the maximum wind speed radius and the maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field zone comprises: Obtaining the wind field distribution parameters of the target typhoon and the distance between the zone point and the typhoon center; The corresponding wind speed value of the zone point is obtained according to the wind field distribution parameters, the distance between the zone point and the typhoon center, the preset zone point location wind speed model, and the maximum wind speed radius and maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field area.

5. The method for evaluating power distribution line faults in typhoon disasters according to claim 4, characterized in that: The wind speed model at the preset zone point is expressed as: Among them, d i,j represents the distance from the jth point in the i-th typhoon wind field to the typhoon center, and i=a,b,c, a,b and c represent the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area and spiral rain belt area respectively, j=1,2,…,J, J represents the total number of points in the typhoon wind field; represents the maximum wind speed radius of the i-th typhoon wind field; represents the maximum average wind speed in the i-th typhoon wind field; X1 and X2 represent wind field distribution parameters; It represents the wind speed at the jth point in the i-th typhoon wind field.

6. The method for evaluating power distribution line faults in typhoon disasters according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the failure probability of each grid element according to the wind speed value at the zone point and the maximum wind speed that the element is designed to withstand includes: The wind speed value at each zone point and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the component are input into the preset grid component failure probability model to obtain the failure probability of each grid component; the grid component failure probability is expressed as: in, represents the grid element failure probability of the kth grid unit of the mth distribution line at time t in the i-th typhoon wind field area, and i = a, b, c, a, b and c represent the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area and spiral rain belt area respectively; and V represents the set of zone point locations corresponding to the kth grid unit in the i-th typhoon wind field area; re Indicates the maximum wind speed that the component is designed to withstand; represents the wind speed at the jth zone point corresponding to the kth grid cell in the i-th typhoon wind field; It represents the probability correlation coefficient of failure of the kth grid unit of the mth distribution line at time t in the i-th typhoon wind farm area; K9 represents the empirical coefficient.

7. The method for evaluating power distribution line faults in typhoon disasters according to claim 1, characterized in that: The failure probability of the power distribution line in the wind farm area is expressed as: in, represents the grid element failure probability of the kth grid unit of the mth distribution line at time t in the i-th typhoon wind field area, and i = a, b, c, a, b and c represent the typhoon eye area, cloud wall area and spiral rain belt area respectively; Represents the set of grid cells of the mth distribution line in the i-th typhoon wind area.

8. A distribution line fault assessment system in a typhoon disaster, characterized in that: The system comprises: A wind field area division module is used to divide the wind field area of ​​the target typhoon to obtain a corresponding plurality of typhoon wind fields; the typhoon wind field area includes a typhoon eye area, a cloud wall area and a spiral rain belt area; A wind speed radius acquisition module is used to obtain the wind disaster impact coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind farm area, and obtain the maximum wind speed radius corresponding to each typhoon wind farm area according to the wind disaster impact coefficient and a preset maximum wind speed radius model; An average wind speed acquisition module is used to obtain the wind speed influence coefficient of the target typhoon on the typhoon wind field, and obtain the maximum average wind speed corresponding to each typhoon wind field according to the wind speed influence coefficient and a preset maximum average wind speed model; The point wind speed acquisition module is used to obtain the corresponding wind speed value of the point location according to the maximum wind speed radius and the maximum average wind speed of each typhoon wind field area; The component failure assessment module is used to grid each distribution line in the target typhoon impact area to obtain multiple distribution line grid elements, and obtain the failure probability of each grid element according to the wind speed value at the area point and the maximum wind speed designed to withstand the element; The area line fault assessment module is used to analyze the failure probability of all grid elements in each distribution line in series to obtain the corresponding wind farm area distribution line failure probability.

9. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that: When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

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