A public space emergency evacuation prediction method and system based on traffic entropy

Abstract

The present invention discloses a public space emergency evacuation prediction method and system based on traffic entropy, which relates to the technical field of public space emergency evacuation management, and includes the steps of: obtaining a local evacuation test area; obtaining the current total number of pedestrians and the current pedestrian type composition of the current evacuation crowd; determining the current evacuation pedestrian density, the current evacuation traffic entropy, and the current evacuation differential type heterogeneity coefficient; obtaining the crowd evacuation mixed speed according to the current evacuation pedestrian density, the current evacuation traffic entropy, and the current evacuation differential type heterogeneity coefficient; obtaining the crowd evacuation movement duration according to the evacuation walking path and the walking speed of each current segment. The method of the present invention fully considers the influencing factors such as the current evacuation pedestrian density, the current evacuation traffic entropy, and the current evacuation differential type heterogeneity coefficient in the mixed traffic flow to calculate the crowd evacuation movement duration, which solves the existing technical problem that the simple use of pedestrian density prediction cannot accurately describe the evacuation traffic state, resulting in difficulty in accurately calculating the evacuation movement duration.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of public space emergency evacuation management, and in particular to a public space emergency evacuation prediction method and system based on traffic entropy. Background Art

[0002] Safe evacuation of public spaces refers to the process of evacuating indoor personnel to indoor safe areas or outdoor safe areas. The duration of emergency evacuation will be fully considered when designing the traffic structure.

[0003] Usually, the evacuation safety of public spaces is evaluated by the evacuation movement time of indoor personnel evacuating to a safe area. At present, the calculation of evacuation movement time in public spaces is based on pedestrian density. However, in the evacuation of public spaces, people of different ages and genders constitute mixed traffic flows. The more complex the composition of the crowd, the greater the mutual interference, the more chaotic the pedestrian state, and the more significant the impact on the average mixed speed. Therefore, there is internal energy loss in the mixed traffic flow, which has the characteristics of entropy. Simply using pedestrian density prediction cannot accurately describe the evacuation traffic state, making it difficult to accurately calculate the evacuation movement time. In view of this, it is necessary to propose a public space emergency evacuation prediction method based on traffic entropy to solve or at least alleviate some of the above defects. Summary of the invention

[0004] The main purpose of the present invention is to provide a public space emergency evacuation prediction method based on traffic entropy, aiming to solve the technical problem that the emergency evacuation prediction in the prior art only relies on pedestrian density and it is difficult to accurately predict the emergency evacuation duration.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a public space emergency evacuation prediction method based on traffic entropy, comprising the steps of:

[0006] S10, obtaining a local evacuation test area of ​​a target public space;

[0007] S20, obtaining the total number of pedestrians and the current type of pedestrians in the current evacuation crowd in the local evacuation test area;

[0008] S30, determining the current evacuation pedestrian density according to the distribution of the current total number of pedestrians in the local evacuation test area;

[0009] S40, determining the current evacuation traffic entropy according to the number of crowd categories composed of the current pedestrian types;

[0010] S50, determining a current evacuation difference type difference coefficient according to the crowd category difference characteristics of the current pedestrian type, where the current evacuation difference type difference coefficient is a correlation coefficient between a current evacuation speed of the current evacuation crowd and an evacuation speed of the target group when walking on the target walking path;

[0011] S60, calculating and obtaining the mixed evacuation speed of the crowd when the current evacuation crowd is walking on the target walking path according to the current evacuation pedestrian density, the current evacuation traffic entropy and the current evacuation difference coefficient ;

[0012] S70, obtaining an evacuation walking path from a local evacuation test area to a target exit according to a traffic structure design of a target public space;

[0013] S80, obtaining each path walking segment of the evacuation walking path, obtaining the current segment walking speed on each path walking segment and the crowd evacuation mixed walking speed when walking on the target walking path The speed correlation relationship is based on the mixed speed of crowd evacuation The current segment walking speed of each path walking segment is determined by the speed association relationship;

[0014] S90: Obtain crowd evacuation movement duration according to the evacuation walking path and the walking speed of each current segment.

[0015] Furthermore, an expert database or clustering algorithm is used to determine the current pedestrian type composition of the current evacuation crowd, wherein the current pedestrian type composition includes at least two of the following groups: children and adolescents, teenage males, teenage females, young males, young females, middle-aged males, middle-aged females, middle-aged and elderly males, middle-aged and elderly females, elderly males and elderly females.

[0016] Furthermore, in step S30, the current evacuation pedestrian density is determined based on the ratio of the floor area corresponding to the local evacuation test area to the current total number of pedestrians.

[0017] Further, in step S40, the formula Calculate and obtain the current evacuation traffic entropy when walking on the target walking path, where: The number of crowd categories corresponding to the current pedestrian type, ≥2, For pedestrian type The ratio of the corresponding number of pedestrians of a single type to the total number of pedestrians at present.

[0018] Further, in step S50, the formula Calculate and obtain the current evacuation difference coefficient, where: , For pedestrian type The corresponding individual speed, is the individual speed of the individuals corresponding to the target group, For pedestrian type The individual difference coefficient between the corresponding individual and the target group, For pedestrian type The ratio of the corresponding number of pedestrians of a single type to the total number of pedestrians at present.

[0019] Furthermore, the Kan model is adopted, with the current evacuation pedestrian density, current evacuation traffic entropy and current evacuation difference coefficient in the model training data as input parameters, and the crowd evacuation mixed speed in the model training data as output parameters, to obtain the speed crowd fitting model through approximate fitting.

[0020] ,in represents the predicted evacuation speed of the current evacuation crowd on the target walking path in the model training data, where K is the model coefficient, G is the normal parameter, , as well as They are respectively the first sub-item parameter, the second sub-item parameter and the third sub-item parameter associated with the current evacuation pedestrian density, the training current evacuation traffic entropy and the training current evacuation difference coefficient in the model training data.

[0021] Furthermore, if the current pedestrian type consists of a single age or a single gender ,otherwise ; ,

[0022] Using formula

[0023]

[0024] Calculate and determine the first sub-item parameters , Second sub-item parameters And the third sub-parameter , where M represents the current evacuation pedestrian density, H represents the current evacuation traffic entropy, and R represents the current evacuation difference coefficient.

[0025] Further, each path walking segment of the evacuation walking path is obtained, and the path walking segment is a straight path segment, a corner path segment, an upward path segment, a downward path segment or an intersecting path segment, and it is determined that the target walking path is a straight path segment,

[0026] Get the crowd evacuation turning mixed speed and crowd evacuation mixed speed on the corner path segment The correlation relationship between the crowd evacuation uplink mixed speed and the crowd evacuation mixed speed of the uplink path segment is obtained. The correlation relationship between the crowd evacuation downlink mixed speed and the crowd evacuation mixed speed of the downlink path segment is obtained. The correlation relationship between the crowd evacuation and merging mixed speed and the crowd evacuation mixed speed of the intersection and merging path segment is obtained. The relationship between

[0027] Using formula Calculate the duration of crowd evacuation, where: For path segment The length of travel, For path segment The speed of travel, Mixed speed with crowd evacuation Has a linear correlation.

[0028] Furthermore, the intersection and converging path segment is an intersection and exit path segment of two pedestrian flows in an L-shaped space, an intersection and exit path segment of two pedestrian flows in a T-shaped space, or an intersection and exit path segment of three pedestrian flows in a T-shaped space.

[0029] Furthermore, the current pedestrian type composition is determined based on the attributes of the target public space.

[0030] If the current evacuation pedestrian density is between 0.303 people / ㎡ and 4.000 people / ㎡ and the crowd evacuation movement duration is greater than the evacuation movement duration threshold, it is determined that the traffic structure design of the target public space needs to be modified.

[0031] The present invention also provides a public space emergency evacuation prediction system based on traffic entropy, including a processing device, and the processing device is used to implement the steps of the above-mentioned public space emergency evacuation prediction method based on traffic entropy.

[0032] Compared with the prior art, the public space emergency evacuation prediction method based on traffic entropy provided by the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0033] The present invention provides a public space emergency evacuation prediction method based on traffic entropy. First, a local evacuation test area of ​​the target public space is obtained; then, based on the current total number of pedestrians and the current pedestrian type composition of the current evacuation crowd in the local evacuation test area, the current evacuation pedestrian density, the current evacuation traffic entropy and the current evacuation difference type heterogeneity coefficient are determined; then, according to the current evacuation pedestrian density, the current evacuation traffic entropy and the current evacuation difference type heterogeneity coefficient, the crowd evacuation mixed speed when the current evacuation crowd is walking on the target walking path is calculated. After determining the evacuation walking path of the crowd moving from the local evacuation test area to the target exit based on a target exit of the target public space, determine the walking segments of each component path of the evacuation walking path and the current segment walking speed on each path walking segment and the mixed walking speed of the crowd evacuation when walking on the target walking path speed correlation; finally, the evacuation movement duration of the crowd is obtained according to the evacuation walking path and the walking speed of each current segment; finally, the evacuation movement duration of the crowd is obtained according to the evacuation walking path and the walking speed of each current segment; in the scheme of the present invention, various influencing factors in the mixed traffic flow are fully considered to calculate the evacuation movement duration of the crowd, which solves the technical problem that the existing simple use of pedestrian density prediction cannot accurately describe the evacuation traffic state, resulting in difficulty in accurately calculating the evacuation movement duration. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0034] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on the structures shown in these drawings without paying creative work.

[0035] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for predicting emergency evacuation of public space based on traffic entropy in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0036] Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the current state of pedestrian evacuation density in the solution of the present invention, wherein a is a schematic diagram of a state with a relatively small density, b is a schematic diagram of a state with a moderate density, and c is a schematic diagram of a state with a relatively large density;

[0037] Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of the path composition of an evacuation walking path in a specific embodiment of the present invention, wherein a is a schematic diagram of a straight path segment, b is a schematic diagram of a corner path segment, c is a schematic diagram of an upward path segment, d is a schematic diagram of a downward path segment, and e is a schematic diagram of a cross-joining path segment;

[0038] Figure 4 yes Figure 3 The schematic diagram of the structure of the intersection and confluence path segment in the figure, where a is a schematic diagram of the structure of the intersection and exit path segment of two streams of people in the L-shaped space, b is a schematic diagram of the structure of the intersection and exit path segment of two streams of people in the T-shaped space, and c is a schematic diagram of the structure of the intersection and exit path segment of three streams of people in the T-shaped space;

[0039] Figure 5 It is a schematic diagram of an evacuation scenario of a public space in a specific embodiment of the present invention.

[0040] The purpose, features and advantages of the present invention will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings in conjunction with the embodiments. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0041] It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention, and are not used to limit the present invention.

[0042] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0043] It should be noted that all directional indications (such as up, down, left, right, front, back, etc.) in the embodiments of the present invention are only used to explain the relative position relationship, movement status, etc. between the components under a certain specific posture (as shown in the accompanying drawings). If the specific posture changes, the directional indication will also change accordingly.

[0044] In addition, the descriptions of "first", "second", etc. in the present invention are only used for descriptive purposes and cannot be understood as indicating or implying their relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of the indicated technical features. Therefore, the features defined as "first" and "second" may explicitly or implicitly include at least one of the features. In addition, the technical solutions between the various embodiments can be combined with each other, but they must be based on the ability of ordinary technicians in the field to implement them. When the combination of technical solutions is contradictory or cannot be implemented, it should be deemed that such a combination of technical solutions does not exist and is not within the scope of protection required by the present invention.

[0045] Please refer to the attached Figure 1 , Figure 2 , Figure 3 , Figure 4 as well as Figure 5 The present invention provides a public space emergency evacuation prediction method based on traffic entropy, comprising the following steps: S10, obtaining a local evacuation test area of ​​a target public space; S20, obtaining the current total number of pedestrians and the current pedestrian type composition of the current evacuation crowd in the local evacuation test area; S30, determining the current evacuation pedestrian density (the degree of crowdedness of evacuation pedestrians) according to the distribution of the current total number of pedestrians in the local evacuation test area; S40, determining the current evacuation traffic entropy according to the number of crowd categories composed of the current pedestrian types; S50, determining the current evacuation difference type heterogeneity coefficient according to the difference characteristics of the crowd categories composed of the current pedestrian types, and the current evacuation difference type heterogeneity coefficient is the correlation coefficient between the current evacuation speed of the current evacuation crowd and the evacuation speed of the target group; S60, calculating and obtaining the crowd evacuation mixed speed of the current evacuation crowd when walking on the target walking path according to the current evacuation pedestrian density, the current evacuation traffic entropy and the current evacuation difference type heterogeneity coefficient. ; S70, obtain the evacuation walking path from the local evacuation test area to the target exit according to the traffic structure design of the target public space; S80, obtain each path walking segment of the evacuation walking path, obtain the current segment walking speed on each path walking segment and the crowd evacuation mixed speed when walking on the target walking path The speed correlation relationship is based on the mixed speed of crowd evacuation The current segment walking speed of each path walking segment is determined based on the speed association relationship; S90, the crowd evacuation movement duration is obtained according to the evacuation walking path and each current segment walking speed.

[0046] The public space emergency evacuation prediction method based on traffic entropy provided by the present invention first obtains a local evacuation test area of ​​the target public space; then determines the current evacuation pedestrian density, the current evacuation traffic entropy and the current evacuation difference type heterogeneity coefficient based on the current total number of pedestrians and the current pedestrian type composition of the current evacuation crowd in the local evacuation test area; then calculates and obtains the crowd evacuation mixed speed when the current evacuation crowd walks on the target walking path according to the current evacuation pedestrian density, the current evacuation traffic entropy and the current evacuation difference type heterogeneity coefficient. After determining the evacuation walking path of the crowd moving from the local evacuation test area to the target exit based on a target exit of the target public space, determine the walking segments of each component path of the evacuation walking path and the current segment walking speed on each path walking segment and the mixed walking speed of the crowd evacuation when walking on the target walking path speed correlation; finally, the evacuation movement duration of the crowd is obtained according to the evacuation walking path and the walking speed of each current segment; finally, the evacuation movement duration of the crowd is obtained according to the evacuation walking path and the walking speed of each current segment; in the scheme of the present invention, various influencing factors in the mixed traffic flow are fully considered to calculate the evacuation movement duration of the crowd, which solves the technical problem that the existing simple use of pedestrian density prediction cannot accurately describe the evacuation traffic state, resulting in difficulty in accurately calculating the evacuation movement duration.

[0047] It can be understood that the target public space can be public transportation spaces such as station spaces, subway station spaces, airport terminal spaces, or public places with emergency and risk avoidance properties such as school spaces and shopping mall spaces.

[0048] It can be understood that in the present invention, the target public space can be divided into multiple local evacuation test areas, each of which has a corresponding current evacuation population. In a preferred embodiment, the local evacuation test area is an area of ​​a certain area in the public space that is farthest from the target exit or has the longest travel time.

[0049] It can be understood that the evacuation walking path can be a single path walking segment, or it can be formed by a combination of multiple path walking segments; in the present invention, the current segment walking speed on each path walking segment and the crowd evacuation mixed walking speed when walking on the target walking path can be obtained by processing historical data. The speed correlation relationship can also be obtained through model analysis, experimental analysis or expert database to obtain the current segment walking speed on each path walking segment and the crowd evacuation mixed speed when walking on the target walking path. speed correlation.

[0050] Furthermore, an expert database or clustering algorithm is used to determine the current pedestrian type composition of the current evacuation crowd, wherein the current pedestrian type composition includes at least two of the following groups: children and adolescents, teenage males, teenage females, young males, young females, middle-aged males, middle-aged females, middle-aged and elderly males, middle-aged and elderly females, elderly males and elderly females.

[0051] Optionally, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, with reference to the age classification in the relevant guidelines of the World Health Organization and the National Physical Fitness Monitoring Bulletin issued by the National Physical Fitness Monitoring Center, pedestrians are divided into eleven categories according to their physiological age and gender, among which teenagers have a small difference in speed between genders and are classified into one category; data analysis is performed to obtain pedestrian classification and related walking parameter statistics to obtain Table 1:

[0052]

[0053] Furthermore, in step S30, the current evacuation pedestrian density is determined based on the ratio of the floor area corresponding to the local evacuation test area to the current total number of pedestrians.

[0054] Please refer to Figure 2 The inverse of the per capita area occupied by pedestrians in a public space is the pedestrian density. According to historical scene data analysis or experimental data analysis, if the current evacuation pedestrian density is less than 0.303 people / ㎡, traffic is not affected and people can walk quickly without interference; if the current evacuation pedestrian density is around 0.455 people / ㎡, people can evacuate at their individual normal speed without being affected; if the current evacuation pedestrian density is greater than 4.000 people / ㎡, pedestrians are in a congested state and evacuation and movement are difficult. The method of the present invention is suitable for spatial evacuation prediction when the current evacuation pedestrian density is between 0.303 people / ㎡ and 4.000 people / ㎡.

[0055] Further, in step S40, the formula Calculate and obtain the current evacuation traffic entropy when walking on the target walking path, where: The number of crowd categories corresponding to the current pedestrian type, ≥2, For pedestrian type The ratio of the corresponding number of pedestrians of a single type to the total number of pedestrians at present.

[0056] Understandably, in the pedestrian evacuation of public spaces, people of different ages and genders form mixed traffic flows. The more complex the composition of the crowd, the greater the mutual interference, the more chaotic the pedestrian state, and the more significant the impact on the average mixed speed. Therefore, there is internal energy loss in the mixed traffic flow, which has the characteristics of entropy. For traffic flow, the current evacuation crowd is classified into In this case, the speed of the same type of people is considered to be the same, and the mixed traffic volume is calculated using the formula Determine, among which Represents the total number of pedestrians at present, Represented as pedestrian type The equivalent value obtained by converting the number of single-type pedestrians is The number of people Q is randomly arranged in the local evacuation test area, and may be arranged as There are many ways, but the speed of the same group of people is the same, and the arrangement of the same group of people is not considered. The number of arrangement methods predicted by multiple combinations is: , is the number of permutations and combinations, and after calculation we can get ,like , that is, the proportion of the number of pedestrians of a certain type of people in the mixed traffic volume. At this time,

[0057] , ,so,

[0058] , get is the entropy of the random event of probability distribution, that is, the current evacuation traffic entropy of mixed traffic. Therefore, the formula is adopted Calculate and obtain the current evacuation traffic entropy, where: The number of pedestrian types corresponding to the current pedestrian type, For group type The ratio of the corresponding number of pedestrians of a single type to the total number of pedestrians at present.

[0059] Further, in step S50, the formula Calculate and obtain the current evacuation difference coefficient, where: , For pedestrian type The corresponding individual speed, is the individual speed of the individuals corresponding to the target group, For pedestrian type The individual difference coefficient between the corresponding individual and the target group, For pedestrian type The ratio of the number of corresponding single-type pedestrians to the total number of pedestrians at present. In order to facilitate comparison in the present invention, the target group adopts the young male group, and the target walking path is a straight path segment. The current evacuation traffic entropy and the current evacuation difference type heterogeneity coefficient in the scheme of the present invention are both obtained based on the target group walking on the target walking path.

[0060] It can be understood that the more complex the composition of the crowd is, the greater the mutual interference is, the more chaotic the pedestrian state is, and the greater the current evacuation traffic entropy is; if in the first case the current evacuation crowd is composed of young male groups and young female groups, if in the second case the current evacuation crowd is composed of elderly male groups and elderly female groups, then the traffic entropy between the first and second cases is slightly different. At this time, due to the difference in speed between the crowd categories, further distinction is made through the current evacuation difference coefficient.

[0061] Understandably, when there is only a single type of crowd in the local evacuation test area, the current evacuation traffic entropy tends to zero. Under the same pedestrian density (current evacuation pedestrian density), the speeds of different types of crowds are different. Therefore, the difference coefficient of different types of crowds is introduced, and the ratio of fast speeds without interference of individual behavior is used as the individual difference coefficient. , where the population type difference coefficient The coefficient of variation among individuals The sum of the proportions of .

[0062] Furthermore, based on data analysis, simulation analysis or Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theory, a Kan model is used to analyze and obtain the predicted evacuation speed of the current evacuated crowd on the target walking path.

[0063] Specifically, based on the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theory, the Kan model is used to transform the input parameters (current evacuation pedestrian density M, The mathematical expression is obtained by approximating the relationship between the previous evacuation traffic entropy H and the current evacuation difference coefficient R) and the output parameter (crowd evacuation mixed speed).

[0064] Preferably, the Kan model is adopted, with the current evacuation pedestrian density, the current evacuation traffic entropy and the current evacuation difference coefficient in the model training data as input parameters, and the crowd evacuation mixed speed in the model training data as output parameters, and approximate fitting is performed to obtain the speed crowd fitting model.

[0065] ,in represents the predicted evacuation speed of the current evacuation crowd on the target walking path in the model training data, where K is the model coefficient, G is the normal parameter, , as well as They are respectively the first sub-item parameter, the second sub-item parameter and the third sub-item parameter associated with the current evacuation pedestrian density, the training current evacuation traffic entropy and the training current evacuation difference coefficient in the model training data.

[0066] Furthermore, if the current pedestrian type consists of a single age or a single gender ,otherwise ; ,

[0067] Using formula

[0068]

[0069] The first sub-item parameter, the second sub-item parameter and the third sub-item parameter are calculated and determined.

[0070] Further, each path walking segment of the evacuation walking path is obtained, the path walking segment is a straight path segment, a corner path segment, an upward path segment, a downward path segment or an intersection and confluence path segment, the target walking path is a straight path segment, the correlation between the crowd evacuation turning mixed speed and the crowd evacuation mixed speed on the corner path segment is obtained, the correlation between the crowd evacuation upward mixed speed and the crowd evacuation mixed speed on the upward path segment is obtained, the correlation between the crowd evacuation downward mixed speed and the crowd evacuation mixed speed on the downward path segment is obtained, the correlation between the crowd evacuation confluence mixed speed and the crowd evacuation mixed speed on the intersection and confluence path segment is obtained, and the formula is used. Calculate the duration of crowd evacuation, where: For path segment The length of travel, For path segment The speed of travel, Mixed speed with crowd evacuation Has a linear correlation.

[0071] Furthermore, the intersection and merging path section (straight pedestrian flow merging intersection exit) is an L-shaped space intersection exit of two pedestrian flows, a T-shaped space intersection exit of two pedestrian flows, or a T-shaped space intersection exit of three pedestrian flows.

[0072] Optionally, the ascending path segment may be an ascending stair path segment or an ascending ramp path segment; the descending path segment may be a descending stair path segment or a descending ramp path segment; the corner path segment may be a right-angle corner path segment or an oblique corner path segment.

[0073] It can be understood that in the present invention, the target walking path is a straight walking path, and the corner path segment is composed of an upstream path segment of a first preset length and a downstream path segment of a second preset length; the intersection exit of two streams of people in an L-shaped space is composed of an upstream path segment of a third preset length, an upstream path segment of a fourth preset length, and a downstream path segment of a fifth preset length; the intersection exit of two streams of people in a T-shaped space is composed of an upstream path segment of a sixth preset length, an upstream path segment of a seventh preset length, and a downstream path segment of an eighth preset length; the intersection exit of three streams of people in a T-shaped space is composed of an upstream path segment of a ninth preset length, an upstream path segment of a tenth preset length, an upstream path segment of an eleventh preset length, and a downstream path segment of a second preset length. The crowd evacuation mixed speed on the straight walking path is obtained by an expert database evaluation method, a historical data analysis method, or a normalization processing method. Mixed speed of the crowd evacuation stairs in the ascending staircase path section The linear relationship ; The mixed speed of crowd evacuation on a straight walking path is obtained by expert database evaluation method, historical data analysis method or normalization processing method Mixed speed of people evacuating stairs down the path section of the descending stairs The linear relationship ; The mixed speed of crowd evacuation on a straight walking path is obtained by expert database evaluation method, historical data analysis method or normalization processing method Crowd evacuation upward mixed speed on the upward ramp path section The linear relationship ; The mixed speed of crowd evacuation on a straight walking path is obtained by expert database evaluation method, historical data analysis method or normalization processing method Mixed speed of crowd evacuation ramp downhill on the downhill slope path section The linear relationship ; The mixed speed of crowd evacuation on a straight walking path is obtained by expert database evaluation method, historical data analysis method or normalization processing method Corner speed for a 150 degree turn The linear relationship ; The mixed speed of crowd evacuation on a straight walking path is obtained by expert database evaluation method, historical data analysis method or normalization processing method Corner speed for a 120 degree turn The linear relationship ; The mixed speed of crowd evacuation on a straight walking path is obtained by expert database evaluation method, historical data analysis method or normalization processing method Corner speed for a 90 degree turn The linear relationship ; The mixed speed of crowd evacuation on a straight walking path is obtained by expert database evaluation method, historical data analysis method or normalization processing method The mixed speed of crowd evacuation at the exit path section where two streams of people intersect in the L-shaped space The linear relationship ; The mixed speed of crowd evacuation on a straight walking path is obtained by expert database evaluation method, historical data analysis method or normalization processing method Crowd evacuation mixed speed at the exit path section where two streams of people intersect in the T-shaped space The linear relationship ; The mixed speed of crowd evacuation on a straight walking path is obtained by expert database evaluation method, historical data analysis method or normalization processing method Crowd evacuation mixed speed at the exit path section where two streams of people intersect in the T-shaped space The linear relationship .

[0074] In a specific embodiment of the present invention, a path structure of an evacuation walking path is obtained, and the evacuation walking path includes at least one of a straight path segment, a corner path segment, an upward path segment, a downward path segment, and an intersecting and merging path segment.

[0075] It can be understood that the target group in the present invention is the middle-aged male group; the present invention can also obtain the current evacuation traffic entropy and the current evacuation difference coefficient of the evacuation speed of the middle-aged male group in the straight walking path and the current evacuation speed of the current evacuation crowd by normalization and comparison. In the present invention, the evacuation speed of the middle-aged male group in the straight walking path can be determined by Table 1, and the evacuation speed of the middle-aged male group in the straight walking path can also be determined by experimental methods, expert database evaluation methods or historical data analysis methods.

[0076] It can be understood that in a specific embodiment of the present invention, an evacuation walking path from a local evacuation test area to a target exit is obtained according to the traffic structure design of a target public space, and the evacuation walking path includes a straight path segment L1, a corner path segment L2, a straight path segment L3, an up ramp path segment L4, a down ramp path segment L6, a straight path segment L5 between the up ramp path segment L4 and the down ramp path segment L6, an up stair path segment L7, a down stair path segment L9, a straight path segment L8 between the up stair path segment L7 and the down stair path segment L9, a straight path segment L10, and an intersecting merging section L11, wherein L1, L2, and L3 are connected in series; the collaborative section composed of L4, L5, and L6 is connected in parallel with the collaborative section composed of L7, L8, and L9; and L10 and L11 are connected in series.

[0077] Different path places in a target public space are combined in series and in parallel. For example, straight passages and stairs are generally in series, and stairs and ramps can be in parallel. When different paths are in parallel, they are limited by the people in the paths in front of them. During the evacuation process, people in different paths will tend to move forward at the same time when they reach the end of their respective paths. Therefore, the average speed of the parallel section is used to predict the mixed speed of this path place. In the scheme of the present invention, the sum of the evacuation speed of the collaborative section composed of L7, L8 and L9 and the collaborative section composed of L4, L5 and L6 divided by 2 is used as the mixed speed.

[0078] Furthermore, the current pedestrian type composition is determined based on the attributes of the target public space. If the crowd evacuation movement duration is greater than the evacuation movement duration threshold when the current evacuation pedestrian density is between 0.303 people / ㎡ and 4.000 people / ㎡, it is determined that the traffic structure design of the target public space needs to be modified. It can be understood that if the target public space is a school, when designing the traffic structure of the target public space, the current pedestrian type composition can be artificially set to be a group of adolescent males, a group of adolescent females, a group of young males, a group of young females, a group of middle-aged males, and a group of middle-aged females. If the target public space is a railway station, the current pedestrian type composition can be artificially set to be a group of children and adolescents, a group of adolescent males, a group of adolescent females, a group of young males, a group of young females, a group of middle-aged males, a group of middle-aged females, a group of middle-aged males, and a group of elderly females.

[0079] The present invention also provides a public space emergency evacuation prediction system based on traffic entropy, including a processing device, and the processing device is used to implement the steps of the above-mentioned public space emergency evacuation prediction method based on traffic entropy.

[0080] The above embodiments only express several implementation methods of the present application, and the descriptions thereof are relatively specific and detailed, but they cannot be understood as limiting the scope of the present application. It should be pointed out that, for a person of ordinary skill in the art, several variations and improvements can be made without departing from the concept of the present application, and these all belong to the protection scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application shall be subject to the attached claims.

Claims

1. A public space emergency evacuation prediction method based on traffic entropy, characterized in that: The steps include: S10, obtaining a local evacuation test area of ​​a target public space; S20, obtaining the total number of pedestrians and the current type of pedestrians in the current evacuation crowd in the local evacuation test area; S30, determining a current evacuation pedestrian density according to the distribution of the current total number of pedestrians in the local evacuation test area; S40, determining the current evacuation traffic entropy according to the number of crowd categories constituted by the current pedestrian type; S50, determining a current evacuation difference type difference coefficient according to the crowd category difference characteristics of the current pedestrian type, wherein the current evacuation difference type difference coefficient is a correlation coefficient between a current evacuation speed of the current evacuation crowd and an evacuation speed of the target group when walking on the target walking path; S60, calculating and obtaining the mixed evacuation speed of the crowd when the current evacuation crowd is walking on the target walking path according to the current evacuation pedestrian density, the current evacuation traffic entropy and the current evacuation difference coefficient. ; S70, obtaining an evacuation walking path from the local evacuation test area to the target exit according to the traffic structure design of the target public space; S80, obtaining each path walking segment of the evacuation walking path, obtaining the current segment walking speed on each path walking segment and the crowd evacuation mixed walking speed when walking on the target walking path The speed correlation relationship is based on the mixed speed of crowd evacuation Determine the current segment walking speed of each of the path walking segments according to the speed association relationship; S90, obtaining a crowd evacuation movement duration according to the evacuation walking path and the walking speed of each current segment.

2. The method for predicting emergency evacuation in public space based on traffic entropy according to claim 1 is characterized in that: An expert database or a clustering algorithm is used to determine the current pedestrian type composition of the current evacuation crowd. Among them, the current pedestrian type composition includes at least two of the following groups: children and teenagers, teenage male groups, teenage female groups, young male groups, young female groups, middle-aged male groups, middle-aged female groups, middle-aged and elderly male groups, middle-aged and elderly female groups, elderly male groups and elderly female groups.

3. The method for predicting emergency evacuation in public space based on traffic entropy according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S30, the current evacuation pedestrian density is determined based on the ratio of the floor area corresponding to the local evacuation test area to the current total number of pedestrians.

4. The method for predicting emergency evacuation of public space based on traffic entropy according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S40, the formula The current evacuation traffic entropy when walking on the target walking path is calculated and obtained, wherein, The number of crowd categories corresponding to the current pedestrian type, ≥2, For pedestrian type The ratio of the corresponding number of pedestrians of a single type to the total number of pedestrians currently.

5. The method for predicting emergency evacuation in public space based on traffic entropy according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S50, the formula Calculate and obtain the current evacuation difference coefficient, where: , For pedestrian type The corresponding individual speed, is the individual speed of the individuals corresponding to the target group, For pedestrian type The individual difference coefficient between the corresponding individual and the target group, For pedestrian type The ratio of the corresponding number of pedestrians of a single type to the total number of pedestrians at present.

6. The method for predicting emergency evacuation in public space based on traffic entropy according to claim 1, characterized in that: The Kan model is used to obtain the speed crowd fitting model by taking the current evacuation pedestrian density, current evacuation traffic entropy and current evacuation difference coefficient in the model training data as input parameters and the crowd evacuation mixed speed in the model training data as output parameters. ,in represents the mixed evacuation speed of the current evacuated crowd on the target walking path in the model training data, where K is the model coefficient, G is the normal parameter, , as well as They are respectively the first sub-item parameter, the second sub-item parameter and the third sub-item parameter associated with the current evacuation pedestrian density, the current evacuation traffic entropy and the current evacuation difference heterogeneity coefficient in the model training data.

7. The method for predicting emergency evacuation in public space based on traffic entropy according to claim 6, characterized in that: If the current pedestrian type consists of a single age or single gender ,otherwise ; , Using formula Calculate and determine the first sub-item parameters , Second sub-item parameters And the third sub-parameter , where M represents the current evacuation pedestrian density, H represents the current evacuation traffic entropy, and R represents the current evacuation difference coefficient.

8. The method for predicting emergency evacuation in public space based on traffic entropy according to claim 1, characterized in that: Acquire each path walking segment of the evacuation walking path, wherein the path walking segment is a straight path segment, a corner path segment, an upward path segment, a downward path segment or an intersecting path segment, and determine that the target walking path is the straight path segment. Obtain the crowd evacuation turning mixed speed and the crowd evacuation mixed speed on the corner path segment , obtaining the crowd evacuation up mixed speed of the up path segment and the crowd evacuation mixed speed , obtaining the crowd evacuation downlink mixed speed of the downlink path segment and the crowd evacuation mixed speed , obtaining the crowd evacuation merging mixed speed of the intersection and merging path segment and the crowd evacuation mixed speed The relationship between Using formula Calculate the duration of crowd evacuation, where: For path segment The length of travel, For path segment The speed of travel, Mixed speed with crowd evacuation Has a linear correlation.

9. The method for predicting emergency evacuation of public space based on traffic entropy according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that: Determine the current pedestrian type composition based on the attributes of the target public space, If the current evacuation pedestrian density is between 0.303 people / ㎡ and 4.000 people / ㎡ and the crowd evacuation movement duration is greater than the evacuation movement duration threshold, it is determined that the traffic structure design of the target public space needs to be modified.

10. A public space emergency evacuation prediction system based on traffic entropy, characterized in that: It comprises a processing device, which is used to implement the steps of the public space emergency evacuation prediction method based on traffic entropy as described in any one of claims 1 to 9.

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