Pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergistic effect analysis and evaluation method for energy utilization right transaction system

Abstract

The invention relates to a pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergistic effect analysis and evaluation method for an energy utilization right transaction system. The method comprises the following steps: step 1, constructing a measurement model: firstly, performing parallel trend hypothesis testing on pollution reduction and carbon reduction level changes before and after an energy utilization right transaction trial point by using an event research method; 2, establishing a double difference model; 3, constructing a model to check the influence of energy right transaction on mechanism variables; 4, carrying out expansibility analysis; step 5, parallel trend inspection; step 6, reference regression; step 7, carrying out robustness test; 8, analyzing an influence mechanism; step 9, application effect; the method has the advantages that a metering model is constructed, a double difference model is adopted, and evaluation is carried out from the perspective of collaboration.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of energy rights trading, and specifically relates to a method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in an energy rights trading system. Background Art

[0002] In order to promote the development of energy consumption and achieve the goals of "dual carbon" and coordinated governance, my country has adopted a series of policy measures, among which the energy consumption rights trading system (ECPTS) has attracted much attention; the energy consumption rights trading system grants enterprises certain energy use rights and allows these rights to be traded in the market, thereby encouraging enterprises to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption and pollutant emissions; theoretically, energy consumption rights trading is conducive to stimulating the vitality of market entities, promoting the effective allocation of energy resources, and supporting and promoting the completion of the "dual control" goals of energy consumption, but in practice there is still great uncertainty about its specific synergistic effects; existing research mainly analyzes the design, implementation and energy-saving potential of energy consumption rights trading, however, there is currently a lack of in-depth research on the pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergistic effects of energy consumption rights trading; therefore, its synergistic effects and specific action mechanisms in practical applications need further research and verification; therefore, it is very necessary to provide a method for analyzing and evaluating the pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergistic effects of an energy consumption rights trading system by constructing a measurement model, using a double difference model, and evaluating from a synergistic perspective. Summary of the invention

[0003] 1. Technical issues

[0004] In view of the above-mentioned existing technical status, this application mainly addresses the following technical problems:

[0005] 1. There is still great uncertainty about the specific synergy effects of energy rights trading in practice;

[0006] 2. Existing research lacks in-depth research on the synergistic effect of energy rights trading on pollution reduction and carbon reduction;

[0007] 3. The synergistic effects and specific mechanisms of energy rights trading in practical applications need further research and verification.

[0008] (II) Technical solution

[0009] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the shortcomings of the prior art and to provide a method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon reduction of an energy rights trading system by constructing a measurement model, adopting a double difference model, and evaluating from a synergistic perspective.

[0010] The object of the present invention is achieved by: a method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in an energy rights trading system, the method comprising the following steps:

[0011] Step 1: Construct econometric model: First, use the event study method to conduct a parallel trend hypothesis test on the changes in pollution reduction and carbon reduction levels before and after the energy rights trading pilot;

[0012] Step 2: Establish a double difference model;

[0013] Step 3: Construct a model to test the impact of energy rights trading on mechanism variables;

[0014] Step 4: Extensibility analysis;

[0015] Step 5: Parallel trend test;

[0016] Step 6: Benchmark regression;

[0017] Step 7: Robustness test;

[0018] Step 8: Impact mechanism analysis;

[0019] Step 9: Apply the results.

[0020] Furthermore, the construction of the measurement model in step 1 is specifically as follows: the measurement model is constructed as follows: In the formula, the explained variable Y i,t is the pollution reduction and carbon reduction level of province i in year t; D is a series of dummy variables; i is a dummy variable, indicating whether the sample is in the treatment group or the control group; α, β, θ are regression coefficients; Z i,t is the control variable; i is the province fixed effect; γ t is the time fixed effect; ε i,t is the disturbance term.

[0021] Furthermore, the establishment of the double difference model in step 2 is specifically as follows: in order to test whether the energy rights trading can effectively produce the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, the energy rights trading is used as a quasi-natural experiment, and the double difference model is used for policy analysis. The specific model is as follows:

[0022] Y i,t =α+βECPTS i,t +θZ i,t +λ i +γ t +ε i,t , where ECPTS is the energy rights trading, and its coefficient β reflects the policy effect of the energy rights trading pilot.

[0023] Furthermore, the model constructed in step 3 tests the impact of energy rights trading on mechanism variables, specifically: construct the following model to test the impact of energy rights trading on mechanism variables: Mechanism i,t =α+βECPTSi,t +θZ i,t +λ i +γ t +ε i,t , where Mechanism i,t is the mechanism variable.

[0024] Furthermore, the extended analysis in step 4 is specifically: the regulatory effect of environmental goals and economic goals on the pollution reduction and carbon reduction effect of energy rights trading. The specific model is as follows: i,t =α+β1ent i,t ×ECPTS i,t +β2ECPTS i,t +β3ent i,t +θZ i,t +γ t +λ i +ε i,t , Y i,t =α+β1ect i,t ×ECPTS i,t +β2ECPTS i,t +β3ect i,t +θZ i,t +γ t +λ i +ε i,t , where ent is the environmental goal and ect is the economic goal.

[0025] Furthermore, the robustness test in step 7 includes replacing indicators, excluding the impact of other policies, eliminating outliers, expected effects and placebo tests.

[0026] Furthermore, the replacement indicators are specifically as follows: recalculating the logarithm of CO2 emissions, lnCO2, using the logarithm of SO2 emissions, lnSO2, as a proxy for the atmospheric pollution index, and using the pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergy index coe as a proxy for the pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergy index.

[0027] Furthermore, the pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergy index coe in the replacement indicator is measured by the entropy weight method, and the secondary indicators include wastewater discharge, SO2 emissions, general industrial solid waste generation, PM2.5 concentration and CO2 emissions.

[0028] Furthermore, the analysis of the impact mechanism in step 8 includes the examination of the energy efficiency mechanism, whether the energy rights trading can play a synergistic governance effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction through technological innovation, and the examination of the industrial structure mechanism.

[0029] (III) Beneficial effects

[0030] 1. This paper takes the pilot project of energy rights trading as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the double difference model to evaluate the synergistic effect of energy rights trading in my country on pollution reduction and carbon reduction from a synergistic perspective;

[0031] 2. This invention deeply analyzes the mechanism of action of this system in promoting the synergistic efficiency of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and provides a reference for promoting collaborative governance. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0032] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0033] The present invention is further described below in conjunction with embodiments and / or drawings.

[0034] Example 1

[0035] like Figure 1 As shown, a method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in an energy rights trading system comprises the following steps:

[0036] Step 1: Construct econometric model: First, use the event study method to conduct a parallel trend hypothesis test on the changes in pollution reduction and carbon reduction levels before and after the energy rights trading pilot;

[0037] In the present invention, specifically: firstly, the event study method is used to test the parallel trend hypothesis of the changes in pollution reduction and carbon reduction levels before and after the energy rights trading pilot. Similar to the double difference estimator, when used for causal reasoning, the identification assumption of the event study method is that the change trend of the results of the control group and the treatment group is the same. The rationality of this common trend assumption can be evaluated by observing whether there are parallel pre-treatment trends in the two groups of samples; the advantage of the event study method is that it allows the dynamic changes of the estimated impact, and the econometric model is constructed as follows: In the formula, the explained variable Y i,t is the pollution reduction and carbon reduction level of province i in year t. The representation of multiple years is t=1,2,...,T0,...,T, and the start time of the pilot is T 0+1 ; D is a series of dummy variables. When t = τ, D = 1, otherwise D = 0. Therefore, except for the base year (e.g., 2015), β can be estimated separately for each year. τ ;Treat i is a dummy variable, indicating whether the sample is in the treatment group or the control group; α, β, θ are regression coefficients; Z i,t is the control variable; i is the province fixed effect; γ t is the time fixed effect; ε i,t is the disturbance term.

[0038] Step 2: Establish a double difference model;

[0039] In the present invention, in order to test whether energy rights trading can effectively produce the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, energy rights trading is used as a quasi-natural experiment, and a double difference model is used for policy analysis. The specific model is as follows: Y i,t =α+βECPTS i,t +θZ i,t +λ i +γ t +ε i,t , where ECPTS is the energy rights trading, and its coefficient β reflects the policy effect of the energy rights trading pilot.

[0040] Step 3: Construct a model to test the impact of energy rights trading on mechanism variables;

[0041] In the present invention, the following model is constructed to test the impact of energy rights trading on mechanism variables: i,t =α+βECPTS i,t +θZ i,t +λ i +γ t +ε i,t , where Mechanism i,t is the mechanism variable.

[0042] Step 4: Extensibility analysis;

[0043] In the present invention, specifically, the regulatory effect of environmental goals and economic goals on the pollution reduction and carbon reduction effect of energy rights trading, the specific model is as follows: Y i,t =α+β1ent i,t ×ECPTS i,t +β2ECPTS i,t +β3ent i,t +θZ i,t +γ t +λ i +ε i,t , Y i,t =α+β1ect i,t ×ECPTS i,t +β2ECPTS i,t +β3ect i,t +θZ i,t +γ t +λ i +ε i,t, where ent is the environmental target; ent is assigned a value based on whether the target values ​​of energy consumption and pollution emissions are clearly mentioned in the government work report. If so, ent = 1; otherwise ent = 0; ect is the economic target; ect is assigned a value based on whether the economic growth target value is clearly mentioned in the government work report. If so, ect = 1; otherwise ect = 0; the sign direction and significance of β1 are the focus of attention.

[0044] Step 5: Parallel trend test;

[0045] Step 6: Benchmark regression;

[0046] Step 7: Robustness test;

[0047] Step 8: Impact mechanism analysis;

[0048] Step 9: Apply the results.

[0049] The present invention is a method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon reduction of an energy rights trading system. In use, the present invention takes the energy rights trading pilot as a quasi-natural experiment, and uses a double difference model to evaluate the synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon reduction of my country's energy rights trading from a synergistic perspective; and the present invention deeply analyzes the mechanism of action of the system in promoting the synergistic enhancement of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and provides a reference for promoting collaborative governance; the present invention has the advantages of constructing a measurement model, adopting a double difference model, and evaluating from a synergistic perspective.

[0050] Example 2

[0051] like Figure 1 As shown, a method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in an energy rights trading system comprises the following steps:

[0052] Step 1: Construct econometric model: First, use the event study method to conduct a parallel trend hypothesis test on the changes in pollution reduction and carbon reduction levels before and after the energy rights trading pilot;

[0053] Step 2: Establish a double difference model;

[0054] Step 3: Construct a model to test the impact of energy rights trading on mechanism variables;

[0055] Step 4: Extensibility analysis;

[0056] Step 5: Parallel trend test;

[0057] In the present invention, the parallel trend test is an important step in the double difference method (DID), which is used to ensure that the change trends of the experimental group (energy rights trading pilot area) and the control group (non-pilot area) before the implementation of the policy are the same, that is, the "parallel trend" assumption is met; this is to separate the policy effect from the time trend and accurately evaluate the impact of the policy on the target variable; by comparing the change trends of per capita carbon dioxide emissions (CDE) and carbon dioxide emission intensity (CDI) of the experimental group and the control group before the implementation of the policy, it is confirmed whether the two have similar change trends before the implementation of the policy.

[0058] Step 6: Benchmark regression;

[0059] In the present invention, the present invention uses a benchmark regression process to analyze the impact of energy rights trading on CO2 and environmental pollutant emissions, and explores the role of control variables; verifies whether energy rights trading is effective in reducing emissions, and explores the impact of other factors on pollution reduction and carbon reduction.

[0060] Step 7: Robustness test;

[0061] In the present invention, in order to ensure the validity of the estimation results of the double difference model and ensure the reliability of the results, robustness tests are carried out from the aspects of replacing indicators, excluding the influence of other policies, eliminating outliers, expected effects and placebo tests.

[0062] Among them, ① replacement indicators: the logarithm of CO2 emissions, lnCO2, is recalculated using the method recommended by the IPCC, the logarithm of SO2 emissions, lnSO2, is used as a proxy for the atmospheric pollution index, and the pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergy index coe is used as a proxy for the pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergy index; the pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergy index coe is measured using the entropy weight method, and the secondary indicators include wastewater discharge, SO2 emissions, general industrial solid waste generation, PM2.5 concentration and CO2 emissions; the entropy value method can comprehensively consider the relationship between various indicators, which not only reflects the absolute contribution of the indicators, but also considers the relative contribution, and therefore can effectively evaluate the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction.

[0063] ② Excluding the impact of other policies: In order to avoid the interference of carbon trading policy pilots on the benchmark regression results, the samples of pilot carbon trading policies were excluded.

[0064] ③ Expectation effect: In order to avoid the influence of expectation effect, a placebo test was constructed, using the dummy variable of the year before the energy rights trading pilot as the hypothetical policy shock event and adding it into the regression.

[0065] ④ Perform shrinking processing on outliers (eliminating outliers): In order to avoid the influence of outliers on the bias of double difference estimation, the explained variable is used as the exclusion condition, and the samples with data distribution below the 1st percentile and above the 99th percentile are shrinking processed.

[0066] ⑤ Placebo test: Use random sampling to mix the treatment group and the control group to obtain two false groups of samples for placebo test; repeat the benchmark regression 500 times to obtain the pseudo-estimated coefficient distribution.

[0067] Step 8: Impact mechanism analysis;

[0068] In this invention, the impact mechanism of the synergistic effect of energy rights trading is tested from three aspects, including the test of energy efficiency mechanism, and whether energy rights trading can play a synergistic governance effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction through technological innovation. There is also a test of industrial structure mechanism.

[0069] Step 9: Apply the results.

[0070] In the present invention, energy rights trading significantly promoted the synergistic increase in pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the pilot areas. At the same time, the action mechanism analysis shows that the impact of energy rights trading on the synergistic increase in pollution reduction and carbon reduction is mainly achieved by promoting energy efficiency improvement. It also shows that environmental protection goals play a positive reinforcing role in the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction of energy rights trading.

[0071] The present invention is a method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon reduction of an energy rights trading system. In use, the present invention takes the energy rights trading pilot as a quasi-natural experiment, and uses a double difference model to evaluate the synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon reduction of my country's energy rights trading from a synergistic perspective; and the present invention deeply analyzes the mechanism of action of the system in promoting the synergistic enhancement of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and provides a reference for promoting collaborative governance; the present invention has the advantages of constructing a measurement model, adopting a double difference model, and evaluating from a synergistic perspective.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in an energy rights trading system, characterized by: The method comprises the following steps: Step 1: Construct econometric model: First, use the event study method to conduct a parallel trend hypothesis test on the changes in pollution reduction and carbon reduction levels before and after the energy rights trading pilot; Step 2: Establish a double difference model; Step 3: Construct a model to test the impact of energy rights trading on mechanism variables; Step 4: Extensibility analysis; Step 5: Parallel trend test; Step 6: Benchmark regression; Step 7: Robustness test; Step 8: Impact mechanism analysis; Step 9: Apply the results.

2. The method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the energy rights trading system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The construction of the measurement model in step 1 is specifically as follows: the measurement model is constructed as follows: In the formula, the explained variable Y i,t is the pollution reduction and carbon reduction level of province i in year t; D is a series of dummy variables; i is a dummy variable, indicating whether the sample is in the treatment group or the control group; α, β, θ are regression coefficients; Z i,t is the control variable; i is the province fixed effect; γ t is the time fixed effect; ε i,t is the disturbance term.

3. The method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the energy rights trading system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The establishment of the double difference model in step 2 is specifically as follows: In order to test whether the energy rights trading can effectively produce the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, the energy rights trading is used as a quasi-natural experiment, and the double difference model is used for policy analysis. The specific model is as follows: i,t =α+βECPTS i,t +θZ i,t +λ i +γ t +ε i,t , where ECPTS is the energy rights trading, and its coefficient β reflects the policy effect of the energy rights trading pilot.

4. The method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the energy rights trading system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The model constructed in step 3 tests the impact of energy rights trading on mechanism variables, specifically: construct the following model to test the impact of energy rights trading on mechanism variables: Mechanism i,t =α+βECPTS i,t +θZ i,t +λ i +γ t +ε i,t , where Mechanism i,t is the mechanism variable.

5. The method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the energy rights trading system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The extended analysis in step 4 is specifically: the regulatory effect of environmental goals and economic goals on the pollution reduction and carbon reduction effect of energy rights trading. The specific model is as follows: i,t =α+β1ent i,t ×ECPTS i,t +β2ECPTS i,t +β3ent i,t +θZ i,t +γ t +λ i +ε i,t , Y i,t =α+β1ect i,t ×ECPTS i,t +β2ECPTS i,t +β3ect i,t +θZ i,t +γ t +λ i +ε i,t , where ent is the environmental goal and ect is the economic goal.

6. The method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the energy rights trading system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The robustness tests in step 7 include replacement indicators, exclusion of the impact of other policies, removal of outliers, expected effects and placebo tests.

7. The method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the energy rights trading system according to claim 6, characterized in that: The replacement indicators are specifically: recalculating the logarithm of CO2 emissions, lnCO2, using the method recommended by IPCC, using the logarithm of SO2 emissions, lnSO2, as a proxy for the atmospheric pollution index, and using the pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergy index coe as a proxy for the pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergy index.

8. The method for analyzing and evaluating the pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergistic effect of the energy rights trading system according to claim 7, characterized in that: The pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergy index coe in the replacement indicator is measured by the entropy weight method. The secondary indicators include wastewater discharge, SO2 emissions, general industrial solid waste generation, PM2.5 concentration and CO2 emissions.

9. The method for analyzing and evaluating the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the energy rights trading system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The analysis of the impact mechanism in step 8 includes the examination of the energy efficiency mechanism, whether energy rights trading can play a synergistic governance effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction through technological innovation, and the examination of the industrial structure mechanism.

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