Method and system for quantifying investment cost recovery vacancy of reliable power supply matched with new energy unit

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a system for quantifying investment cost recovery vacancy of a reliable power supply matched with a new energy unit. The method comprises the following steps: according to a time sequence production simulation model operation scheduling result, determining an electric power gap generated under the condition of insufficient new energy power generation capacity, and calculating a reliable power supply capacity needing to be matched with each new energy unit based on the electric power gap; and quantifying the investment cost recovery vacancy of the new energy matched reliable power supply based on the recoverable benefit of the reliable power supply capacity and the investment cost of the reliable power supply. According to the scheme, reasonable quantification of the new energy matched reliable power supply cost is realized.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of electric power market, and in particular relates to a quantification method and system for recovering the shortfall of investment cost of reliable power supply supporting new energy units. Background Art

[0002] The installed capacity of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics is growing rapidly, gradually replacing traditional fossil energy. In the process of energy transformation, the power system is undergoing profound changes. With the rapid growth of new energy, the access of these unstable and highly random and volatile new energy sources to the power grid has become an important task for the development of new power systems. The power generation capacity of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics is affected by factors such as weather conditions and day and night changes, and there are significant random fluctuations and intermittent. In order to ensure the stability and reliability of power supply, reliable power sources must be matched to balance this fluctuation, which corresponds to the investment cost of expanding the capacity of reliable power sources. Due to its environmental protection and renewable characteristics, new energy sources usually enjoy a higher priority in power generation, while the priority of supporting reliable power sources is relatively low. In the power system, it mainly plays a supplementary and regulatory role to ensure that the power system can still operate stably when the power generation of new energy sources is insufficient or fluctuating. Therefore, the power generation of supporting reliable power sources is relatively small, which makes it difficult for them to fully recover their investment and operating costs in the market, resulting in a shortage of investment cost recovery for supporting reliable power sources.

[0003] In the power system with a high proportion of new energy access, different countries and regions have adopted different solutions to the problem of investment cost recovery of supporting reliable power sources. In the existing technology, a scarce electricity price mechanism is introduced to help recover the fixed costs of marginal units by setting peak electricity prices when the power supply is short; a capacity compensation mechanism is implemented to subsidize the power generation capacity to a certain extent through the approved price to support the economic return of supporting reliable power sources; and a capacity market is introduced as a long-term mechanism to ensure the investment recovery and economic benefits of traditional units. However, the above existing technologies mainly focus on supplementing the investment cost of reliable power sources through market mechanism design, and have not yet considered the diversion of investment costs to new energy units. The power market of the existing technology mainly allocates costs among reliability resources, new energy and users according to the power generation / consumption ratio. It is impossible to achieve that the shortfall in the recovery of the investment cost of supporting reliable power sources is borne by new energy. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to solve the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a method and system for quantifying the investment cost recovery shortfall of supporting reliable power supply for new energy units, so as to solve the technical problem of quantifying the cost recovery shortfall of supporting reliable power supply caused by new energy and provide support for the design of power market mechanism involving new energy.

[0005] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions.

[0006] The present invention first discloses a method for quantifying the shortfall in investment cost recovery of a reliable power supply supporting a new energy unit, the method comprising the following steps:

[0007] According to the operation and dispatching results of the time-series production simulation model, the power gap caused by insufficient renewable energy power generation capacity is determined, and the reliable power supply capacity required for each renewable energy unit is calculated based on the power gap; the time-series production simulation model makes dispatching decisions on the power system under the condition of considering the load demand and the changes in the renewable energy time-series output, thereby simulating the daily and time-period power balance process of the power system, and obtaining the operation status of each power generation resource and the system operation cost under different unit access scenarios;

[0008] Based on the recoverable benefits of the reliability power capacity and the investment cost of the reliability power, the shortfall in the investment cost recovery of the new energy supporting reliability power is quantified;

[0009] The sequential production simulation model adopts the following objective function:

[0010]

[0011] Where T is the set of scheduling periods; t is the number of the scheduling period; I g ,I h ,I r are the collection of thermal power units, hydropower units, and new energy units; i g 、i h 、i r They represent the numbers of thermal power units, hydropower units, and new energy units respectively; D is the set of loads; d represents the number of the loads; b coal The cost of electricity generation for thermal power units; are the up / down standby costs of thermal power units, respectively; and is the start-up and shutdown cost of thermal power units; b hy For hydropower operating costs; are the upper / lower standby costs of the hydropower units; b cur b is the cost of curtailing wind and solar power; loss is the load shedding penalty cost; P ig,t Output for thermal power units; P ih,t Provide power for hydroelectric units; Upper reserve capacity reserved for thermal power and hydropower units respectively; are the reserve capacities for thermal power and hydropower units respectively; P cur,ir,t P is the amount of wind and solar power abandoned by new energy; loss,d,t The load shedding amount.

[0012] The present invention further includes the following preferred embodiments:

[0013] The calculation of the reliable power supply capacity required for each new energy unit further includes:

[0014] The simulated scheduling results of the system within one year are obtained through the time-series production simulation model, and the reliable power supply capacity required for each new energy unit is determined based on the new energy output and system load shedding conditions in each time period.

[0015] The calculation of the reliable power supply capacity required for each new energy unit further includes:

[0016] When load shedding occurs, if each renewable energy unit can meet the load demand when outputting at the same ratio k, the maximum value of the difference between the actual output of a single renewable energy unit and the output at that ratio is the required reliable power supply capacity for the unit.

[0017] The quantification of the shortfall in the cost recovery of the new energy supporting reliable power source investment further includes:

[0018] Obtain the power gap P at time t caused by random fluctuations of new energy x,t The capacity of each new energy unit is

[0019] The actual output at time t is If each unit outputs power at a ratio k according to its own capacity to meet the power gap, k is expressed as follows:

[0020]

[0021] New energy uniti rx The actual output at time t is Calculate the number of thermal power units in the new energy unit i rx The output at time t when the random fluctuation leads to insufficient output:

[0022]

[0023] Calculate the thermal power capacity required for each new energy unit

[0024]

[0025] Calculate the shortfall in investment costs for supporting reliable power sources that new energy sources need to bear:

[0026]

[0027] Where T represents the set of scheduling periods; Represents new energy unit i r The shortfall in investment costs for supporting reliable power supply that needs to be borne, Represents new energy unit i r The unit investment cost of supporting thermal power generation includes construction cost and operation cost. Represents new energy unit i r The profit that the supporting thermal power plant can obtain from generating unit electricity in the electricity market.

[0028] The sequential production simulation model satisfies the load balancing constraints:

[0029]

[0030] Where P d,t is the load demand at time t; is the new energy unit i at time t r of power generation.

[0031] 6. The quantification method for recovering the investment cost shortfall of the reliable power supply supporting new energy units according to claim 5 is characterized in that the time-series production simulation model satisfies the load shedding constraint:

[0032]

[0033] Among them, P d,t,p To predict load demand, P d,t,r To meet the actual load demand.

[0034] The sequential production simulation model meets the unit ramp-up related constraints:

[0035]

[0036] in, and The up / down climbing ability of the thermal power unit; and The up / down climbing ability of the hydropower unit; It is a 0-1 variable, indicating the start and stop status of the thermal power unit.

[0037] The present invention also discloses a system for quantifying the shortfall in the investment cost recovery of a reliable power source supporting a new energy unit, using the aforementioned method for quantifying the shortfall in the investment cost recovery of a reliable power source supporting a new energy unit, comprising:

[0038] The reliability power supply capacity determination module is used to determine the power gap caused by insufficient renewable energy power generation capacity according to the scheduling results of the sequential production simulation model, and calculate the reliability power supply capacity required for each renewable energy unit based on the power gap; the sequential production simulation model makes scheduling decisions on the power system under the condition of considering the load demand and the changes in the sequential output of renewable energy, so as to simulate the daily and time-period power balance process of the power system, and obtain the operation status of each power generation resource and the system operation cost under different unit access scenarios;

[0039] An investment cost recovery shortfall quantification module is used to quantify the investment cost recovery shortfall of the new energy supporting reliable power source based on the recoverable benefits of the reliable power source capacity and the investment cost of the reliable power source;

[0040] The sequential production simulation model adopts the following objective function:

[0041]

[0042] Where T is the set of scheduling periods; t is the number of the scheduling period; I g ,I h ,I r are the collection of thermal power units, hydropower units, and new energy units; i g 、i h 、i r They represent the numbers of thermal power units, hydropower units, and new energy units respectively; D is the set of loads; d represents the number of the loads; b coal The cost of electricity generation for thermal power units; are the up / down standby costs of thermal power units, respectively; and is the start-up and shutdown cost of thermal power units; b hy For hydropower operating costs; are the upper / lower standby costs of the hydropower units; b cur b is the cost of curtailing wind and solar power; loss Penalty costs for load shedding; Provide power for thermal power units; Provide power for hydroelectric units; Upper reserve capacity reserved for thermal power and hydropower units respectively; The lower reserve capacity is reserved for thermal power and hydropower units respectively; P is the amount of wind and solar power abandoned by new energy; loss,d,t The load shedding amount.

[0043] Accordingly, the present application also discloses a terminal, including a processor and a storage medium;

[0044] The storage medium is used to store instructions;

[0045] The processor is used to operate according to the instructions to execute the steps of the quantification method for recovering the shortfall of the investment cost of the reliable power supply supporting the new energy unit mentioned above.

[0046] Correspondingly, the present application also discloses a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of a method for quantifying the shortfall in the investment cost of the reliability power supply supporting the aforementioned new energy unit.

[0047] The beneficial effect of the present invention is that, compared with the prior art, the present invention provides a method and system for quantifying the shortfall in the investment cost recovery of the supporting reliable power supply of new energy units, and combines the simulation of power system operation scenarios to achieve reasonable quantification of the cost of supporting reliable power supply of new energy. The scheme of the present invention can be widely used in the market cost quantification mechanism, and provide a theoretical basis for designing a market mechanism with a high proportion of new energy participation. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0048] Figure 1 It is a diagram of a quantitative mechanism for recovering the shortfall of investment cost of a reliable power source supporting a single new energy unit in the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0049] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention more clear, the technical solution of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention.

[0050] The embodiments described in this application are only some embodiments of the present invention, not all embodiments. Based on the spirit of the present invention, other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are all within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0051] In view of the shortcomings of the prior art, the present invention proposes a method and system for quantifying the shortfall in investment cost recovery of reliable power supplies supporting new energy units. By calculating the capacity of reliable power supplies required for supporting construction of a single new energy unit and calculating the recoverable cost of the reliable power supplies for supporting construction, the shortfall in investment cost recovery of reliable power supplies supporting construction of a single new energy unit can be quantified.

[0052] Taking wind turbines as an example, we first construct a scenario in which a high proportion of new energy is connected but there is not enough reliable power supply. Secondly, we use the time-series production simulation model to calculate the power gap caused by insufficient power generation capacity due to random fluctuations of new energy in this scenario; then we calculate the capacity of the reliable power supply units that should be constructed in conjunction with each new energy unit and the power generation that should be generated by the reliable power supply; finally, we calculate the recoverable benefits and construction investment costs of the supporting reliable power supply in the energy market, and analyze the cost recovery shortfall of the supporting reliable power supply that the new energy needs to bear.

[0053] Renewable energy generation has random volatility. When the power supply capacity is insufficient, the system needs to build a reliable power source. Building a reliable power source will incur additional construction costs. Assuming that this part of the reliable power source only supplements power generation to make up for the power gap when the new energy generation capacity is insufficient, it can recover a certain amount of income in the energy market. Therefore, the investment cost shortfall of the supporting reliable power source that the new energy needs to bear is the difference between the investment cost of the supporting reliable power source and the recoverable cost in the electric energy market.

[0054] The method for quantifying the shortfall in the investment cost recovery of the reliable power supply supporting the new energy unit disclosed in the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0055] Step 1: According to the scheduling results of the time-series production simulation model, determine the power gap caused by insufficient renewable energy power generation capacity, and calculate the reliability power supply capacity required for each renewable energy unit based on the power gap.

[0056] Specifically, based on historical data, multiple typical annual power generation curves of new energy sources are selected for operation and scheduling simulation.

[0057] Through time-series production, the simulated dispatch results of the system within one year are obtained, and the reliable power supply capacity required for each renewable energy unit is determined based on the renewable energy output and system load shedding conditions in each period.

[0058] Preferably, the principle for determining the supporting reliability power supply capacity of each new energy unit is: when load shedding occurs, if each new energy unit can meet the load demand when outputting at the same ratio k, then the maximum value of the difference between the actual output of a single new energy unit and the output at that ratio is the required supporting reliability power supply capacity of the unit.

[0059] The time-series production simulation model can make long-term and fine-scale dispatching decisions on the power system under the condition of considering the changes in load demand and the time-series output of new energy, thereby simulating the daily and time-period power balance process of the power system, and obtaining the operating conditions and system operating costs of each power generation resource under different unit access scenarios, laying the foundation for quantifying the cost of reliable power supply for new energy supporting facilities.

[0060] Step 2: Based on the recoverable benefits of the reliability power capacity and the investment cost of the reliability power, quantify the shortfall in investment cost recovery of the new energy supporting reliability power.

[0061] In the dispatch model, the supporting thermal power will only generate power when the load demand cannot be met due to the lack of new energy, and benefit from the energy market. The difference between the benefits that can be recovered from the thermal power of the supporting reliable power capacity and the construction investment cost (when the construction cost is higher) is calculated. This value is the shortfall in the cost recovery of the supporting reliable power that the new energy needs to bear.

[0062] like Figure 1 As shown in Figure 2, the power gap at time t caused by random fluctuations in renewable energy is P x,t The capacity of each new energy unit is The actual output at time t is Assuming that each unit can just meet the power gap when it outputs at a ratio k according to its own capacity, k is expressed as follows:

[0063]

[0064] New energy uniti rx The actual output at time t is The thermal power units that need to be built in conjunction with the new energy units i rx When the output is insufficient due to random fluctuations, the output at time t is expressed as follows:

[0065]

[0066] The thermal power capacity required for each new energy unit is It is expressed as:

[0067]

[0068] The method for calculating the shortfall in investment costs of supporting reliable power sources that new energy sources need to bear is as follows:

[0069]

[0070] Where T represents the set of scheduling periods; Represents new energy unit i r The shortfall in investment costs for supporting reliable power supply that needs to be borne, Represents new energy unit i r The unit investment cost of supporting thermal power generation includes construction cost and operation cost. Represents new energy unit i r The profit that the supporting thermal power plant can obtain from generating unit electricity in the electricity market.

[0071] The daily scheduling decision model adopted by the present invention in the time-series production simulation model is as follows (the scheduling granularity is 1h):

[0072] The objective function is defined as:

[0073]

[0074] Where T is the set of scheduling periods (i.e. 24 hours); t is the number of the scheduling period; I g ,I h ,I r are the collection of thermal power units, hydropower units, and new energy units; ig 、i h 、i r They represent the numbers of thermal power units, hydropower units, and new energy units respectively; D is the set of loads; d represents the number of the loads; b coal The cost of electricity generation for thermal power units; are the up / down standby costs of thermal power units, respectively; and is the start-up and shutdown cost of thermal power units; b hy For hydropower operating costs; are the upper / lower standby costs of the hydropower units; b cur b is the cost of curtailing wind and solar power; loss Penalty costs for load shedding; Provide power for thermal power units; Provide power for hydroelectric units; Upper reserve capacity reserved for thermal power and hydropower units respectively; The lower reserve capacity is reserved for thermal power and hydropower units respectively; P is the amount of wind and solar power abandoned by new energy; loss,d,t The load shedding amount.

[0075] Define operating constraints, including load balance constraints, load shedding constraints, system reserve constraints, unit ramp-up related constraints, new energy output constraints, and new energy wind and solar power abandonment constraints.

[0076] Load balancing constraints:

[0077]

[0078] Where P d,t is the load demand at time t; is the new energy unit i at time t r of power generation.

[0079] Load shedding constraints:

[0080]

[0081] Among them, P d,t,p To predict load demand, P d,t,r To meet the actual load demand.

[0082] System backup constraints:

[0083]

[0084] in, They are the upper / lower standby requirements of the system; are the upper / lower reserve demand coefficients caused by unit load demand, respectively; R are the upper / lower reserve demand coefficients caused by unit renewable energy output. up ig , R up ih Represent the upper reserve provided by thermal power and hydropower, R down ig , R down ih Respectively represent the reserve capacity provided by thermal power and hydropower. The size of can characterize the strength of random fluctuations in new energy, and further analyze the impact of random fluctuations in new energy on system operating costs, so as to decouple and quantify the environmental value generated by clean power generation from new energy and the environmental value lost due to random fluctuations.

[0085] Unit climbing related constraints:

[0086]

[0087] in, and The up / down climbing ability of the thermal power unit; and The up / down climbing ability of the hydropower unit; It is a 0-1 variable, indicating the start and stop status of the thermal power unit.

[0088] New energy output constraints:

[0089]

[0090] in, For new energy units r The predicted output at time period t.

[0091] Constraints on abandonment of new energy wind and solar power:

[0092]

[0093] P ir，t，cur Calculate the abandoned wind and solar power of the new energy unit ir at time t;

[0094] In addition to the above constraints, the scheduling decision model must also meet the following common operating constraints, which are not repeated here: the system must meet the line flow constraints; thermal power units must meet the upper and lower limits of output constraints and start and stop constraints; hydropower units must meet the upper and lower limits of output constraints, reservoir capacity and flow constraints, hydropower conversion constraints, etc.; daily scheduling must meet the connection constraints of adjacent scheduling periods across days (for example, the initial start and stop status of the thermal power unit on the day should be the start and stop status of the last scheduling period of the thermal power unit on the previous day).

[0095] The method of the present invention is further described below in conjunction with specific implementation schemes.

[0096] (1) Data Acquisition

[0097] The present invention adopts a modified typical system to carry out case analysis. The system includes 6 thermal power units, 1 hydropower unit, and 3 wind turbines. The load is obtained by scaling the actual load data of a provincial power grid in my country, with a maximum load of 270MW and a minimum load of 60MW. The operating parameters of thermal power, hydropower and wind turbines are shown in Table 1, where G represents thermal power units; H represents hydropower units; and W represents wind turbines.

[0098] Table 1 Parameters of each energy unit

[0099]

[0100] W1~W3 are the predicted power generation curves for one year, which are collected from three actual wind turbines and have different random fluctuations.

[0101] (2) Simulation Scheduling

[0102] With one year as the total dispatch cycle and one hour as the dispatch interval, a time-series production simulation model is carried out to obtain the dispatch results for 8760 hours throughout the year. Through the time-series production simulation model, the load shedding situation at each moment and the output of each wind turbine can be obtained. According to the quantitative method for recovering the investment cost of new energy supporting reliable power sources proposed in the present invention, the power shortage of each wind turbine during load shedding is calculated, and then the maximum power shortage and total power shortage of each wind turbine in the whole year are obtained.

[0103] In the simulation operation and dispatching results, the maximum power shortage and total power shortage of each wind turbine are shown in the following table:

[0104] Table 2 Maximum power shortage and total power shortage of each wind turbine

[0105] unit Maximum power shortage (MW) Total power generation deficit (MWh) W1 5.93 119.04 W2 13.28 405.50 W3 20.23 523.35

[0106] (3) Cost Quantification Analysis

[0107] Assuming that each new energy unit is equipped with a thermal power unit with a capacity equal to the maximum power shortage of each unit to fill the power generation that cannot be met by new energy. Based on the average annual investment of 100,000 yuan / MW for thermal power units and the profit of 150 yuan / MWh that thermal power units can obtain in the electric energy market, the shortfall in the cost recovery of supporting reliable power supply that each wind turbine unit should bear can be obtained as shown in Table 3:

[0108] Table 3 Calculation of supporting reliability power supply cost that each wind turbine should bear

[0109]

[0110] The simulation results show that the reliability power supply costs that the three units need to bear are quite different due to their different power generation capacities; since the matching reliability power supply can obtain limited benefits in the electric energy market, the key to the reliability power supply cost that wind turbines need to bear lies in the reliability power supply capacity that needs to be equipped due to the maximum power shortage.

[0111] The beneficial effect of the present invention is that, compared with the prior art, the present invention provides a method and system for quantifying the shortfall in the investment cost recovery of the supporting reliable power supply of new energy units, and combines the simulation of power system operation scenarios to achieve reasonable quantification of the cost of supporting reliable power supply of new energy. The scheme of the present invention can be widely used in the market cost quantification mechanism, and provide a theoretical basis for designing a market mechanism with a high proportion of new energy participation.

[0112] The present invention may be a system, method and / or computer program product. The present invention also discloses a system for quantifying the shortfall of investment cost recovery of reliable power supply supporting new energy units based on the aforementioned method for quantifying the shortfall of investment cost recovery of reliable power supply supporting new energy units, comprising:

[0113] The reliability power supply capacity determination module is used to determine the power gap caused by insufficient renewable energy power generation capacity according to the scheduling results of the sequential production simulation model, and calculate the reliability power supply capacity required for each renewable energy unit based on the power gap; the sequential production simulation model makes scheduling decisions on the power system under the condition of considering the load demand and the changes in the sequential output of renewable energy, so as to simulate the daily and time-period power balance process of the power system, and obtain the operation status of each power generation resource and the system operation cost under different unit access scenarios;

[0114] An investment cost recovery shortfall quantification module is used to quantify the investment cost recovery shortfall of the new energy supporting reliable power source based on the recoverable benefits of the reliable power source capacity and the investment cost of the reliable power source;

[0115] The sequential production simulation model adopts the following objective function:

[0116]

[0117] Where T is the set of scheduling periods; t is the number of the scheduling period; I g ,I h ,I r are the collection of thermal power units, hydropower units, and new energy units; i g 、i h 、i r They represent the numbers of thermal power units, hydropower units, and new energy units respectively; D is the set of loads; d represents the number of the loads; b coal The cost of electricity generation for thermal power units; are the up / down standby costs of thermal power units, respectively; and is the start-up and shutdown cost of thermal power units; b hy For hydropower operating costs; are the upper / lower standby costs of the hydropower units; b cur b is the cost of curtailing wind and solar power; loss Penalty costs for load shedding; Provide power for thermal power units; Provide power for hydroelectric units; Upper reserve capacity reserved for thermal power and hydropower units respectively; The lower reserve capacity is reserved for thermal power and hydropower units respectively; P is the amount of wind and solar power abandoned by new energy; loss,d,t The load shedding amount.

[0118] Based on the spirit of the present invention, those skilled in the art can easily think of a computer program product based on the aforementioned method for quantifying the cost recovery shortfall of the reliable power supply investment for supporting new energy units. The computer program product may include a computer-readable storage medium, which carries computer-readable program instructions for enabling a processor to implement various aspects of the present disclosure. That is, the present application also includes a terminal, including a processor and a storage medium; the storage medium is used to store instructions; the processor is used to operate according to the instructions to execute the steps of the aforementioned method for quantifying the cost recovery shortfall of the reliable power supply investment for supporting new energy units.

[0119] Computer readable storage medium can be a tangible device that can keep and store the instructions used by the instruction execution device. Computer readable storage medium can be, for example, - but not limited to - electrical storage device, magnetic storage device, optical storage device, electromagnetic storage device, semiconductor storage device or any suitable combination of the above. More specific examples (non-exhaustive list) of computer readable storage medium include: portable computer disk, hard disk, random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), static random access memory (SRAM), portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), digital versatile disk (DVD), memory stick, floppy disk, mechanical encoding device, for example, punch card or groove protrusion structure with instructions stored thereon and any suitable combination of the above. Computer readable storage medium used here is not interpreted as instantaneous signal itself, such as radio wave or other free propagating electromagnetic wave, electromagnetic wave propagated by waveguide or other transmission medium (for example, light pulse by optical fiber cable) or electrical signal transmitted by wire.

[0120] The computer-readable program instructions described herein can be downloaded from a computer-readable storage medium to each computing / processing device, or downloaded to an external computer or external storage device via a network, such as the Internet, a local area network, a wide area network, and / or a wireless network. The network can include copper transmission cables, optical fiber transmissions, wireless transmissions, routers, firewalls, switches, gateway computers, and / or edge servers. The network adapter card or network interface in each computing / processing device receives the computer-readable program instructions from the network and forwards the computer-readable program instructions for storage in the computer-readable storage medium in each computing / processing device.

[0121] The computer program instructions for performing the operation of the present disclosure may be assembly instructions, instruction set architecture (ISA) instructions, machine instructions, machine-related instructions, microcode, firmware instructions, state setting data, or source code or object code written in any combination of one or more programming languages, including object-oriented programming languages-such as Smalltalk, C++, etc., and conventional procedural programming languages-such as "C" language or similar programming languages. Computer-readable program instructions may be executed completely on a user's computer, partially on a user's computer, as an independent software package, partially on a user's computer, partially on a remote computer, or completely on a remote computer or server. In the case of a remote computer, the remote computer may be connected to the user's computer via any type of network-including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN), or may be connected to an external computer (e.g., using an Internet service provider to connect via the Internet). In some embodiments, an electronic circuit, such as a programmable logic circuit, a field programmable gate array (FPGA), or a programmable logic array (PLA) may be personalized by utilizing the state information of a computer-readable program instruction, and the electronic circuit may execute a computer-readable program instruction, thereby realizing various aspects of the present disclosure.

[0122] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the relevant field should understand that the specific implementation methods of the present invention can still be modified or replaced by equivalents, and any modifications or equivalent replacements that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A quantitative method for recovering the shortfall of investment cost of reliable power supply supporting new energy units, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: According to the operation and dispatching results of the time-series production simulation model, the power gap caused by insufficient renewable energy power generation capacity is determined, and the reliable power supply capacity required for each renewable energy unit is calculated based on the power gap; the time-series production simulation model makes dispatching decisions on the power system under the condition of considering the load demand and the changes in the renewable energy time-series output, thereby simulating the daily and time-period power balance process of the power system, and obtaining the operation status of each power generation resource and the system operation cost under different unit access scenarios; Based on the recoverable benefits of the reliability power capacity and the investment cost of the reliability power, the shortfall in the investment cost recovery of the new energy supporting reliability power is quantified; The sequential production simulation model adopts the following objective function: Where T is the set of scheduling periods; t is the number of the scheduling period; I g ,I h ,I r are the collection of thermal power units, hydropower units, and new energy units; i g 、i h 、i r They represent the numbers of thermal power units, hydropower units, and new energy units respectively; D is the set of loads; d represents the number of the loads; b coal The cost of electricity generation for thermal power units; are the up / down standby costs of thermal power units, respectively; and is the start-up and shutdown cost of thermal power units; b hy For hydropower operating costs; are the upper / lower standby costs of the hydropower units; b cur b is the cost of curtailing wind and solar power; loss Penalty costs for load shedding; Provide power for thermal power units; Provide power for hydroelectric units; Upper reserve capacity reserved for thermal power and hydropower units respectively; The lower reserve capacity is reserved for thermal power and hydropower units respectively; P is the amount of wind and solar power abandoned by new energy; loss,d,t The load shedding amount.

2. The quantification method for recovering the shortfall of investment cost of reliable power supply supporting new energy units according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The calculation of the reliable power supply capacity required for each new energy unit further includes: The simulated scheduling results of the system within one year are obtained through the time-series production simulation model, and the reliable power supply capacity required for each new energy unit is determined based on the new energy output and system load shedding conditions in each period.

3. The quantification method for recovering the shortfall of investment cost of supporting reliable power supply of new energy units according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The calculation of the reliable power supply capacity required for each new energy unit further includes: When load shedding occurs, if each renewable energy unit can meet the load demand when outputting at the same ratio k, the maximum value of the difference between the actual output of a single renewable energy unit and the output at that ratio is the required reliable power supply capacity for the unit.

4. The quantification method for recovering the shortfall of investment cost of supporting reliable power supply of new energy units according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The quantification of the shortfall in the cost recovery of the new energy supporting reliable power source investment further includes: Obtain the power gap P at time t caused by random fluctuations of new energy x,t The capacity of each new energy unit is The actual output at time t is If each unit outputs power at a ratio k according to its own capacity to meet the power gap, k is expressed as follows: New energy uniti rx The actual output at time t is Calculate the number of thermal power units in the new energy unit i rx The output at time t when the random fluctuation leads to insufficient output: Calculate the thermal power capacity required for each new energy unit Calculate the shortfall in investment costs for supporting reliable power sources that new energy sources need to bear: Where T represents the set of scheduling periods; Represents new energy unit i r The shortfall in investment costs for supporting reliable power supply that needs to be borne, Represents new energy unit i r The unit investment cost of supporting thermal power generation includes construction cost and operation cost. Represents new energy unit i r The profit that the supporting thermal power plant can obtain from generating unit electricity in the electricity market.

5. The quantification method for recovering the shortfall of investment cost of reliable power supply supporting new energy units according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The sequential production simulation model satisfies the load balancing constraints: Where P d,t is the load demand at time t; is the new energy unit i at time t r of power generation.

6. The quantification method for recovering the shortfall of investment cost of reliable power supply supporting new energy units according to claim 5 is characterized in that: The sequential production simulation model satisfies the load shedding constraint: Among them, P d,t,p To predict load demand, P d,t,r To meet the actual load demand.

7. The quantification method for recovering the shortfall of investment cost of reliable power supply supporting new energy units according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The time-series production simulation model meets the unit ramp-up related constraints: in, and The up / down climbing ability of the thermal power unit; and The up / down climbing ability of the hydropower unit; It is a 0-1 variable, indicating the start and stop status of the thermal power unit.

8. A quantitative system for recovering the shortfall of investment cost of reliable power supply supporting new energy units, characterized in that: include: The reliability power supply capacity determination module is used to determine the power gap caused by insufficient renewable energy power generation capacity according to the scheduling results of the sequential production simulation model, and calculate the reliability power supply capacity required for each renewable energy unit based on the power gap; the sequential production simulation model makes scheduling decisions on the power system under the condition of considering the load demand and the changes in the sequential output of renewable energy, so as to simulate the daily and time-period power balance process of the power system, and obtain the operation status of each power generation resource and the system operation cost under different unit access scenarios; An investment cost recovery shortfall quantification module is used to quantify the investment cost recovery shortfall of the new energy supporting reliable power source based on the recoverable benefits of the reliable power source capacity and the investment cost of the reliable power source; The sequential production simulation model adopts the following objective function: Where T is the set of scheduling periods; t is the number of the scheduling period; I g ,I h ,I r are the collection of thermal power units, hydropower units, and new energy units; i g 、i h 、i r They represent the numbers of thermal power units, hydropower units, and new energy units respectively; D is the set of loads; d represents the number of the loads; b coal The cost of electricity generation for thermal power units; are the up / down standby costs of thermal power units, respectively; and is the start-up and shutdown cost of thermal power units; b hy For hydropower operating costs; are the upper / lower standby costs of the hydropower units; b cur b is the cost of curtailing wind and solar power; loss Penalty costs for load shedding; Provide power for thermal power units; Provide power for hydroelectric units; Upper reserve capacity reserved for thermal power and hydropower units respectively; The lower reserve capacity is reserved for thermal power and hydropower units respectively; P is the amount of wind and solar power abandoned by new energy; loss,d,t The load shedding amount.

9. A terminal comprising a processor and a storage medium; characterized in that: The storage medium is used to store instructions; The processor is used to operate according to the instructions to execute the steps of the method for quantifying the shortfall in investment cost recovery of reliable power supply supporting new energy units according to any one of claims 1-7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for quantifying the shortfall in investment cost recovery of reliable power supply supporting new energy units as described in any one of claims 1-7 are implemented.

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