Method and device for determining regional photovoltaic power generation major weather process and medium

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and device for determining a regional photovoltaic power generation major weather process and a medium. The method comprises the following steps: collecting historical solar irradiance data and installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station in a to-be-detected area; according to the historical solar irradiance data and the installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station, determining the area equivalent irradiance of the to-be-measured area; according to the area equivalent irradiance of the to-be-measured area at each moment in the preset historical time period, standard equivalent irradiance of the to-be-measured area at each moment is calculated; judging whether a forecast area equivalent irradiance sequence of the to-be-measured area at each moment is lower than a standard equivalent irradiance of a first preset percentage at the moment or higher than a standard equivalent irradiance of a second preset percentage at the moment in each time period of the forecast time; and according to the judgment result of each time period in the forecast time, determining the early warning time period of the to-be-measured area in the major weather process in the forecast time.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation, and more specifically, to a method, device and medium for determining a significant weather process for regional photovoltaic power generation. Background Art

[0002] With the rapid growth of global demand for green energy, photovoltaic power generation, as an important renewable energy technology, has been widely used. Photovoltaic power generation uses solar energy to convert into electrical energy. Its advantages are clean, pollution-free, abundant resources and sustainable. However, the output power of photovoltaic power generation is affected by meteorological factors such as solar radiation intensity, cloud cover, temperature, wind speed, etc., and is highly random and volatile. This volatility poses a huge challenge to the stable operation of the power system, especially when weather conditions change drastically, the output power of photovoltaic power generation may fluctuate significantly in a short period of time.

[0003] In actual applications, photovoltaic power stations and distributed photovoltaic systems are widely distributed in various places, and photovoltaic systems in different regions are affected differently by weather systems. For example, during major weather events such as storms, sandstorms, extreme high temperatures or cold waves, the output power of photovoltaic systems may drop sharply, or even stop production for a short period of time in extreme cases. These situations may cause imbalances in the supply and demand of the power grid, increasing the difficulty and risk of power dispatching. In addition, rapid weather changes may also trigger frequent start-stop dispatching, increasing equipment wear and maintenance costs.

[0004] At present, power dispatching agencies usually rely on weather forecasts and historical data to predict the output power of photovoltaic power generation, but due to the nonlinearity and uncertainty of photovoltaic power generation, traditional prediction methods have limited effect in dealing with major weather processes. Dispatching agencies find it difficult to accurately determine the start and end time of these weather processes, and are unable to issue early warnings and take effective measures, resulting in fluctuations in photovoltaic power generation posing a threat to the stability of the power grid.

[0005] Therefore, in order to meet the response and scheduling needs of photovoltaic power generation systems when facing major weather processes, there is an urgent need for a technical means that can accurately determine the start and end time of these weather processes and provide effective early warning. Summary of the invention

[0006] In view of the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a method, device and medium for determining a significant weather process for regional photovoltaic power generation.

[0007] According to one aspect of the present invention, a method for determining a significant weather process for regional photovoltaic power generation is provided, comprising:

[0008] Collect historical solar irradiance data and installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station in the area to be tested;

[0009] Determine the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be tested based on the historical solar irradiance data and installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station;

[0010] Calculate the standard equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured at each moment according to the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured at each moment within a preset historical time period;

[0011] Determine whether the equivalent irradiance sequence of the forecast area at each moment in each time period within the forecast time is lower than the first preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment or higher than the second preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment; and determine the warning time period for major weather processes in the forecast time in the area to be tested according to the judgment results of each time period within the forecast time.

[0012] Optionally, before determining the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured based on the historical solar irradiance data and installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station, the method further includes:

[0013] The historical solar irradiance data are preprocessed to remove outliers and fill in missing data to obtain valid historical solar irradiance data.

[0014] Optionally, the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured is determined based on the historical solar irradiance data and installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station, including:

[0015] According to the installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station, the normalized weight of each photovoltaic power station is calculated;

[0016] According to the normalized weight of each photovoltaic power station and the historical solar irradiance data, the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured is calculated.

[0017] Optionally, the calculation formula for the normalized weight of each photovoltaic power station is:

[0018]

[0019] Among them, P i is the installed capacity of the i-th photovoltaic power station, is the total installed capacity of all PV power stations in the region, and n is the number of PV power stations.

[0020] Optionally, the calculation formula for regional equivalent irradiance is:

[0021]

[0022] Among them, w i is the normalized weight of the i-th PV plant, I i (t) is the irradiance of the ith PV plant at time t, I eq(t) is the regional equivalent irradiance at that time point.

[0023] Optionally, the calculation formula of the standard equivalent irradiance is:

[0024]

[0025] Among them, I eq,k (t) represents the regional equivalent irradiance at time t in year k, I std (t) represents the standard equivalent irradiance at time point t, and M is the number of years in the preset historical time period.

[0026] Optionally, analyzing whether there is a time period in the forecast area within the forecast time when the equivalent irradiance sequence of the forecast area at each moment is lower than the first predetermined percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment or higher than the second predetermined percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment, and using these time periods as the warning time periods for major weather processes in the forecast area within the forecast time, including:

[0027] If there is a time period in the forecast area equivalent irradiance sequence when the forecast area equivalent irradiance is less than the standard equivalent irradiance of the first preset percentage at that moment, the time period corresponding to that moment is determined as the low output warning time period;

[0028] If there is a time period in the forecast area equivalent irradiance sequence when the forecast area equivalent irradiance is higher than the standard equivalent irradiance of the second preset percentage, the time period corresponding to the moment is determined as a high output warning time period;

[0029] If there is a time period in the forecast area equivalent irradiance sequence in which the forecast area equivalent irradiance is not lower than the first preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment and is higher than the second preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance, then the time period is determined as the standard output warning time period;

[0030] According to the low-output warning time period, high-output warning time period and standard-output warning time period corresponding to the forecast wind speed data sequence within the forecast time, the warning time period for major weather processes in the tested area within the forecast time is determined.

[0031] According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a device for determining a significant weather process for regional photovoltaic power generation, comprising:

[0032] A collection module is used to collect historical solar irradiance data and installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station in the area to be tested;

[0033] A determination module is used to determine the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured based on the historical solar irradiance data and installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station;

[0034] A calculation module, used to calculate the standard equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured at each moment according to the regional equivalent irradiance at each moment in a preset historical time period of the area to be measured;

[0035] The analysis module is used to determine whether the equivalent irradiance sequence of the forecast area at each moment in each time period within the forecast time is lower than the first preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment or higher than the second preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment, and determine the warning time period for major weather processes in the forecast time in the forecast area according to the judgment results of each time period within the forecast time.

[0036] According to another aspect of the present invention, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, wherein the storage medium stores a computer program, and the computer program is used to execute the method described in any one of the above aspects of the present invention.

[0037] According to another aspect of the present invention, an electronic device is provided, comprising: a processor; a memory for storing instructions executable by the processor; the processor is configured to read the executable instructions from the memory and execute the instructions to implement the method described in any one of the above aspects of the present invention.

[0038] Therefore, the present invention accurately identifies the start and end time of major weather processes for photovoltaic power generation by weighted averaging and historical statistical analysis of irradiance data of multiple photovoltaic power stations in the region, combined with standard equivalent irradiance comparison. Through this innovative method, power dispatching agencies can warn of possible photovoltaic fluctuations such as high output and low output in advance, thereby making more accurate and timely dispatching decisions. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0039] A more complete understanding of exemplary embodiments of the present invention may be obtained by referring to the following drawings:

[0040] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for determining a significant weather process for regional photovoltaic power generation provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention;

[0041] Figure 2 It is another flow chart of a method for determining a significant weather process for regional photovoltaic power generation provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention;

[0042] Figure 3 It is a schematic structural diagram of a device for determining a significant weather process for regional photovoltaic power generation provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention;

[0043] Figure 4 This is a structure of an electronic device provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0044] Below, the exemplary embodiments according to the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments of the present invention, and it should be understood that the present invention is not limited to the exemplary embodiments described here.

[0045] It should be noted that the relative arrangement of components and steps, the numerical expressions and numerical values ​​set forth in these embodiments do not limit the scope of the present invention unless specifically stated otherwise.

[0046] Those skilled in the art can understand that the terms "first" and "second" in the embodiments of the present invention are only used to distinguish different steps, devices or modules, etc., and neither represent any specific technical meaning nor indicate the necessary logical order between them.

[0047] It should also be understood that, in the embodiments of the present invention, “plurality” may refer to two or more than two, and “at least one” may refer to one, two or more than two.

[0048] It should also be understood that any component, data or structure mentioned in the embodiments of the present invention can generally be understood as one or more, unless explicitly limited or otherwise indicated in the context.

[0049] In addition, the term "and / or" in the present invention is only a description of the association relationship of the associated objects, indicating that there can be three relationships. For example, A and / or B can represent: A exists alone, A and B exist at the same time, and B exists alone. In addition, the character " / " in the present invention generally indicates that the associated objects before and after are in an "or" relationship.

[0050] It should also be understood that the description of the various embodiments of the present invention focuses on the differences between the various embodiments, and the same or similar aspects thereof can be referenced to each other, and for the sake of brevity, they will not be described one by one.

[0051] At the same time, it should be understood that for the convenience of description, the sizes of the various parts shown in the drawings are not drawn according to the actual proportional relationship.

[0052] The following description of at least one exemplary embodiment is merely illustrative in nature and is in no way intended to limit the invention, its application, or uses.

[0053] Technologies, methods, and equipment known to ordinary technicians in the relevant art may not be discussed in detail, but where appropriate, the technologies, methods, and equipment should be considered part of the specification.

[0054] It should be noted that like reference numerals and letters refer to similar items in the following figures, and therefore, once an item is defined in one figure, it need not be further discussed in subsequent figures.

[0055] Embodiments of the present invention can be applied to electronic devices such as terminal devices, computer systems, servers, etc., which can operate with many other general or special computing system environments or configurations. Examples of well-known terminal devices, computing systems, environments and / or configurations suitable for use with electronic devices such as terminal devices, computer systems, servers, etc. include, but are not limited to: personal computer systems, server computer systems, thin clients, thick clients, handheld or laptop devices, microprocessor-based systems, set-top boxes, programmable consumer electronics, network personal computers, small computer systems, large computer systems, and distributed cloud computing technology environments including any of the above systems, etc.

[0056] Electronic devices such as terminal devices, computer systems, servers, etc. can be described in the general context of computer system executable instructions (such as program modules) executed by computer systems. Generally, program modules can include routines, programs, object programs, components, logic, data structures, etc., which perform specific tasks or implement specific abstract data types. Computer systems / servers can be implemented in a distributed cloud computing environment, where tasks are performed by remote processing devices linked through a communication network. In a distributed cloud computing environment, program modules can be located on local or remote computing system storage media including storage devices.

[0057] Exemplary Methods

[0058] Figure 1 FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for determining a significant weather process for regional photovoltaic power generation provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention. This embodiment can be applied to electronic devices, such as Figure 1 As shown, the method 100 for determining a significant weather process for regional photovoltaic power generation includes the following steps:

[0059] Step 101, collecting historical solar irradiance data and installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station in the area to be tested;

[0060] Step 102, determining the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured based on the historical solar irradiance data and installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station;

[0061] Step 103, calculating the standard equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured at each moment according to the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured at each moment within a preset historical time period;

[0062] Step 104, determine whether the equivalent irradiance sequence of the forecast area at each moment in each time period within the forecast time is lower than the first preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment or higher than the second preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment, and determine the warning time period for major weather processes in the forecast time in the forecast area according to the judgment results of each time period within the forecast time.

[0063] Specifically, in response to the current problems of lack of indicators to characterize power generation fluctuations of multiple photovoltaic power stations in a large region and unclear classification of major weather processes, the present invention proposes a process determination method and early warning system based on the weighted average of solar irradiance and theoretical irradiance deviation of all photovoltaic power stations in the region. Through historical statistical analysis of regional equivalent irradiance, combined with numerical weather forecast data, the start and end times of major weather processes for photovoltaic power generation can be accurately divided and identified. This method can provide more accurate early warning information for power dispatching agencies, help improve the dispatching efficiency of the power grid and the economic benefits of photovoltaic power stations, and reduce the risk of system imbalance and power shortage caused by fluctuations in meteorological conditions. Reference Figure 2 As shown, the specific implementation process of the method proposed in the present invention is as follows:

[0064] (1) Data collection and preprocessing

[0065] 1) Data Collection

[0066] Collect historical solar irradiance data of multiple photovoltaic power stations in the region i (t) and installed capacity data P i , where t represents time, I i (t) represents the irradiance of the ith PV power station at time t, P i is the installed capacity of the i-th PV power station.

[0067] 2) Data preprocessing

[0068] The collected solar irradiance data is preprocessed to remove outliers and fill in missing data to ensure data accuracy and consistency.

[0069] (2) Calculation of regional equivalent irradiance

[0070] 1) Normalized weight calculation

[0071] Calculate the normalized weight w of each PV plant i , the weight formula is as follows:

[0072]

[0073] Among them, P i is the installed capacity of the i-th photovoltaic power station, is the total installed capacity of all PV power stations in the region, and n is the number of PV power stations.

[0074] 2) Calculation of regional equivalent irradiance

[0075] According to the normalized weight, calculate the regional equivalent irradiance I eq (t), the formula is:

[0076]

[0077] Among them, I i (t) is the irradiance of the ith photovoltaic power station at time t, I eq (t) is the regional equivalent irradiance at time point t.

[0078] 3) Calculation of standard equivalent irradiance

[0079] The regional equivalent irradiance I at each moment for a history of at least ten years eq (t) Statistical analysis is performed to calculate the average regional equivalent irradiance at each time of each day of the year 365 days through the regional equivalent irradiance at the corresponding time, which is called the standard equivalent irradiance I std (t).

[0080]

[0081] Among them, I eq,k (t) represents the regional equivalent irradiance at time t in year k, I std (t) represents the standard equivalent irradiance at time point t, M is the number of years, and M is greater than or equal to 10.

[0082] (3) Warning of major weather events

[0083] 1) Prediction of regional equivalent illumination

[0084] Based on the data of numerical weather forecast, the regional equivalent irradiance I in the future time period is predicted forecast (t).

[0085] 2) Identification of major weather processes

[0086] By comparing the predicted regional equivalent irradiance I forecast (t) and the standard equivalent irradiance I at the corresponding time std (t), identify major weather processes. Specific warning conditions are as follows:

[0087] Low output process: When the predicted regional equivalent irradiance I forecast (t) is lower than the standard equivalent irradiance I at that time std A percentage of (t), for example 30%:

[0088] I forecast (t) std (t)×(1-0.3)

[0089] High output process: When the predicted area equivalent illumination I forecast (t) is higher than the standard equivalent illumination I at that moment std A percentage of (t), for example 10%:

[0090] I forecast (t)>I std (t)×(1+0.1)

[0091] 3) Determination of the warning time period

[0092] Based on the identification results of low-output and high-output processes, the start and end times of major weather processes for photovoltaic power generation are determined, and early warning signals are sent to power dispatching agencies.

[0093] The present invention uses weighted average and historical statistical analysis of the irradiance data of multiple photovoltaic power stations in the region, combined with standard equivalent irradiance comparison, to accurately identify the start and end time of major photovoltaic power generation weather processes. Through this innovative method, power dispatching agencies can warn of possible photovoltaic fluctuations such as high output and low output in advance, thereby making more accurate and timely dispatching decisions.

[0094] This early warning mechanism fills the gap in the current field, that is, the lack of identification and early warning indicators for typical processes of multiple photovoltaic power stations in large areas. It can assist power dispatching agencies to reduce the negative impact on the power grid caused by severe fluctuations in wind speed and ensure the continuous and reliable operation of the power system. At the same time, the early warning system can optimize the utilization of photovoltaic resources, improve the economic benefits of photovoltaic power stations, and avoid power generation losses caused by power fluctuations. In short, while enhancing the safe operation of photovoltaic power stations, the present invention effectively improves the dispatching efficiency and economic benefits of the power system, and provides important technical support for the large-scale grid connection of renewable energy.

[0095] Exemplary Devices

[0096] Figure 3 FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a device for determining a significant weather process for regional photovoltaic power generation provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention. Figure 3 As shown, the device 300 includes:

[0097] The collection module 310 is used to collect historical solar irradiance data and installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station in the test area;

[0098] ​A determination module 320 is used to determine the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured based on the historical solar irradiance data and installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station;

[0099] A calculation module 330, for calculating the standard equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured at each moment according to the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured at each moment within a preset historical time period;

[0100] The analysis module 340 is used to determine whether the equivalent irradiance sequence of the forecast area at each moment in each time period within the forecast time is lower than the first preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment or higher than the second preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment, and determine the warning time period for major weather processes in the forecast time in the forecast area according to the judgment results of each time period within the forecast time.

[0101] Optionally, before determining module 320, the apparatus 300 further includes:

[0102] The preprocessing module is used to preprocess the historical solar irradiance data, remove the abnormal values ​​in the historical solar irradiance data and fill the missing data to obtain the valid historical solar irradiance data.

[0103] Optionally, the determination module 320 includes:

[0104] A first calculation submodule, used to calculate the normalized weight of each photovoltaic power station according to the installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station;

[0105] The second calculation submodule is used to calculate the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured according to the normalized weights of each photovoltaic power station and the historical solar irradiance data.

[0106] Optionally, the calculation formula for the normalized weight of each photovoltaic power station is:

[0107]

[0108] Among them, P i is the installed capacity of the i-th photovoltaic power station, is the total installed capacity of all PV power stations in the region, and n is the number of PV power stations.

[0109] Optionally, the calculation formula for regional equivalent irradiance is:

[0110]

[0111] Among them, w i is the normalized weight of the i-th PV plant, I i (t) is the irradiance of the ith PV plant at time t, I eq (t) is the regional equivalent irradiance at that time point.

[0112] Optionally, the calculation formula of the standard equivalent irradiance is:

[0113]

[0114] Among them, I eq,k (t) represents the regional equivalent irradiance at time t in year k, I std (t) represents the standard equivalent irradiance at time point t, and M is the number of years in the preset historical time period.

[0115] Optionally, the analysis module 340 includes:

[0116] A first determination submodule is used to determine that the time period corresponding to the moment is a low output warning time period if there is a time period in the forecast area equivalent irradiance sequence when the forecast area equivalent irradiance is less than the standard equivalent irradiance of the first preset percentage at the moment;

[0117] A second determination submodule is used to determine that the time period corresponding to the moment is a high output warning time period if there is a time period in the forecast area equivalent irradiance sequence when the forecast area equivalent irradiance is higher than the standard equivalent irradiance of a second preset percentage;

[0118] A third determination submodule is used to determine that if there is a time period in the forecast area equivalent irradiance sequence in which the forecast area equivalent irradiance is not lower than the first preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment and is higher than the second preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance, then the time period is determined as the standard output warning time period;

[0119] The fourth determination submodule is used to determine the warning time period for major weather processes in the test area within the forecast time according to the low output warning time period, high output warning time period and standard output warning time period corresponding to the forecast wind speed data sequence within the forecast time.

[0120] Exemplary Electronic Devices

[0121] Figure 4 This is a structure of an electronic device provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention. Figure 4 As shown, the electronic device 40 includes one or more processors 41 and a memory 42 .

[0122] The processor 41 may be a central processing unit (CPU) or other forms of processing units having data processing capabilities and / or instruction execution capabilities, and may control other components in the electronic device to perform desired functions.

[0123] The memory 42 may include one or more computer program products, which may include various forms of computer-readable storage media, such as volatile memory and / or non-volatile memory. The volatile memory may include, for example, random access memory (RAM) and / or cache memory (cache), etc. The non-volatile memory may include, for example, read-only memory (ROM), hard disk, flash memory, etc. One or more computer program instructions may be stored on the computer-readable storage medium, and the processor 41 may run the program instructions to implement the methods of the software programs of the various embodiments of the present invention described above and / or other desired functions. In one example, the electronic device may also include: an input device 43 and an output device 44, which are interconnected via a bus system and / or other forms of connection mechanisms (not shown).

[0124] In addition, the input device 43 may also include, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, etc.

[0125] The output device 44 can output various information to the outside, and can include, for example, a display, a speaker, a printer, a communication network and a remote output device connected thereto.

[0126] Of course, to simplify, Figure 4 Only some of the components related to the present invention in the electronic device are shown, and components such as a bus, an input / output interface, etc. are omitted. In addition, the electronic device may further include any other appropriate components according to specific application conditions.

[0127] Exemplary computer program products and computer-readable storage media

[0128] In addition to the above-mentioned methods and devices, an embodiment of the present invention may also be a computer program product, which includes computer program instructions, which, when executed by a processor, enable the processor to execute the steps of the method according to various embodiments of the present invention described in the above-mentioned "Exemplary Method" section of this specification.

[0129] The computer program product may be written in any combination of one or more programming languages ​​to write program code for performing the operations of the embodiments of the present invention, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Java, C++, etc., and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as "C" or similar programming languages. The program code may be executed entirely on the user computing device, partially on the user device, as a separate software package, partially on the user computing device and partially on a remote computing device, or entirely on a remote computing device or server.

[0130] In addition, an embodiment of the present invention may also be a computer-readable storage medium having computer program instructions stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, enable the processor to execute the steps of the method according to various embodiments of the present invention described in the above “Exemplary Method” section of this specification.

[0131] The computer readable storage medium can adopt any combination of one or more readable media. The readable medium can be a readable signal medium or a readable storage medium. The readable storage medium can include, for example, but is not limited to, a system, system or device of electricity, magnetism, light, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor, or any combination of the above. More specific examples (non-exhaustive list) of readable storage media include: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the above.

[0132] The basic principle of the present invention is described above in conjunction with specific embodiments. However, it should be pointed out that the advantages, strengths, effects, etc. mentioned in the present invention are only examples and not limitations, and it cannot be considered that these advantages, strengths, effects, etc. must be possessed by each embodiment of the present invention. In addition, the specific details disclosed above are only for the purpose of illustration and facilitation of understanding, rather than limitation, and the above details do not limit the present invention to being implemented by adopting the above specific details.

[0133] Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. The same or similar parts between the embodiments can be referred to each other. For the system embodiment, since it basically corresponds to the method embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can be referred to the partial description of the method embodiment.

[0134] The block diagrams of the devices, systems, equipment, and systems involved in the present invention are only illustrative examples and are not intended to require or imply that they must be connected, arranged, and configured in the manner shown in the block diagram. As will be appreciated by those skilled in the art, these devices, systems, equipment, and systems can be connected, arranged, and configured in any manner. Words such as "including", "comprising", "having", etc. are open words, referring to "including but not limited to", and can be used interchangeably with them. The words "or" and "and" used here refer to the words "and / or" and can be used interchangeably with them, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. The word "such as" used here refers to the phrase "such as but not limited to", and can be used interchangeably with it.

[0135] The method and system of the present invention may be implemented in many ways. For example, the method and system of the present invention may be implemented by software, hardware, firmware or any combination of software, hardware, firmware. The above order of steps for the method is only for illustration, and the steps of the method of the present invention are not limited to the order specifically described above, unless otherwise specifically stated. In addition, in some embodiments, the present invention may also be implemented as a program recorded in a recording medium, which includes machine-readable instructions for implementing the method according to the present invention. Thus, the present invention also covers a recording medium storing a program for executing the method according to the present invention.

[0136] It should also be noted that in the system, device and method of the present invention, each component or each step can be decomposed and / or recombined. These decompositions and / or recombinations should be regarded as equivalent schemes of the present invention. The above description of the disclosed aspects is provided to enable any technician in the field to make or use the present invention. Various modifications to these aspects are very obvious to those skilled in the art, and the general principles defined here can be applied to other aspects without departing from the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the aspects shown here, but in accordance with the widest range consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed here.

[0137] The above description has been given for the purpose of illustration and description. In addition, this description is not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention to the forms disclosed herein. Although a number of example aspects and embodiments have been discussed above, those skilled in the art will recognize certain variations, modifications, changes, additions and sub-combinations thereof.

Claims

1. A method for determining a significant weather process for regional photovoltaic power generation, characterized in that: include: Collect historical solar irradiance data and installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station in the area to be tested; Determining the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured according to the historical solar irradiance data and the installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station; Calculate the standard equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured at each moment according to the equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured at each moment within a preset historical time period; Determine whether the equivalent irradiance sequence of the forecast area at each moment in each time period within the forecast time is lower than the first preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment or higher than the second preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment, and determine the major weather process warning time period of the forecast area within the forecast time according to the judgment results of each time period within the forecast time.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Before determining the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured according to the historical solar irradiance data and the installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station, the method further includes: The historical solar irradiance data is preprocessed to remove abnormal values ​​in the historical solar irradiance data and fill in missing data to obtain valid historical solar irradiance data.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Determining the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured according to the historical solar irradiance data and the installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station includes: Calculating the normalized weight of each photovoltaic power station according to the installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station; The regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured is calculated according to the normalized weight of each photovoltaic power station and the historical solar irradiance data.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The calculation formula of the normalized weight of each photovoltaic power station is: Among them, P i is the installed capacity of the i-th photovoltaic power station, is the total installed capacity of all PV power stations in the region, and n is the number of PV power stations.

5. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The calculation formula of the equivalent irradiance of the area is: Among them, w i is the normalized weight of the i-th PV plant, I i (t) is the irradiance of the ith PV plant at time t, I eq (t) is the regional equivalent irradiance at that time point.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The calculation formula of the standard equivalent irradiance is: Among them, I eq,k (t) represents the regional equivalent irradiance at time t in year k, I std (t) represents the standard equivalent irradiance at time point t, and M is the number of years in the preset historical time period.

7. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Determine whether the equivalent irradiance sequence of the forecast area at each moment in each time period within the forecast time is lower than the first predetermined percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment or higher than the second predetermined percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment, and determine the major weather process warning time period of the forecast area within the forecast time according to the judgment results of each time period within the forecast time, including: If there is a time period in the forecast area equivalent irradiance sequence when the forecast area equivalent irradiance is less than the first preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment, then determining the time period corresponding to that moment as a low output warning time period; If there is a time period in the forecast area equivalent irradiance sequence when the forecast area equivalent irradiance is higher than the standard equivalent irradiance of the second preset percentage, determining the time period corresponding to the moment as a high output warning time period; If there is a time period in the forecast area equivalent irradiance sequence in which the forecast area equivalent irradiance is not lower than the first preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment and is higher than the second preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance, then the time period is determined to be the standard output warning time period; The major weather process warning time period of the test area within the forecast time is determined according to the low output warning time period, the high output warning time period and the standard output warning time period corresponding to the forecast wind speed data sequence within the forecast time.

8. A device for determining a significant weather process for regional photovoltaic power generation, characterized in that: include: A collection module is used to collect historical solar irradiance data and installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station in the area to be tested; A determination module, used to determine the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured according to the historical solar irradiance data and the installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station; A calculation module, used to calculate the standard equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured at each moment according to the equivalent irradiance of the area at each moment within a preset historical time period of the area to be measured; The analysis module is used to determine whether the equivalent irradiance sequence of the forecast area at each moment in each time period within the forecast time is lower than the first preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment or higher than the second preset percentage of the standard equivalent irradiance at that moment, and determine the warning time period of major weather processes in the forecast time for the area to be tested within the forecast time according to the judgment results of each time period within the forecast time.

9. The device according to claim 8, characterized in that Before determining the module, also include: The preprocessing module is used to preprocess the historical solar irradiance data, remove abnormal values ​​in the historical solar irradiance data and fill in missing data to obtain valid historical solar irradiance data.

10. The device according to claim 8, characterized in that Identify modules, including: A first calculation submodule, configured to calculate a normalized weight of each photovoltaic power station according to the installed capacity data of each photovoltaic power station; The second calculation submodule is used to calculate the regional equivalent irradiance of the area to be measured according to the normalized weight of each photovoltaic power station and the historical solar irradiance data.

11. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The storage medium stores a computer program, and the computer program is used to execute the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

12. An electronic device, characterized in that: The electronic device comprises: processor; a memory for storing instructions executable by the processor; The processor is used to read the executable instructions from the memory and execute the instructions to implement the method described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

Images