Extreme disaster event emergency disposal decision-making method, system, equipment and medium

Abstract

The invention discloses an extreme disaster event emergency disposal decision-making method, system and device and a medium, and the method comprises the steps: determining the type, intensity and influence range of a main disaster, and constructing a risk region map according to the type, intensity and influence range of the main disaster; according to the risk area map and the type of the main disaster, determining a possible secondary derivative disaster event and an influence range thereof based on a random probability analysis method; according to the possible secondary derivative disaster events and the influence ranges thereof, determining possible extreme secondary derivative disaster events and the influence ranges thereof; emergency processing response is carried out according to the possible extreme secondary derivative disaster events and the influence range thereof. The method, the system, the equipment and the medium are good in emergency processing effect.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of disaster emergency technology and relates to an extreme disaster event emergency response decision-making method, system, equipment and medium. Background Art

[0002] Intelligent emergency decision-making support technology for disasters can effectively support disaster decision-making, reduce disaster losses, speed up power supply restoration, and support social operations. At present, emergency decision-making support mainly focuses on disaster loss prediction and emergency material dispatch. The core of all work is based on reasonable reasoning about the development of disasters and accurate prediction of disaster loss consequences. However, the current disaster reasoning and prediction methods cannot accurately predict the development of various aspects of disasters, resulting in a large discrepancy between disaster consequences and prediction results. The emergency decision-making support plan based on the analysis results cannot well improve the overall emergency response effect. Summary of the invention

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the shortcomings of the above-mentioned prior art and provide a method, system, equipment and medium for emergency response decision-making in extreme disaster events. The method, system, equipment and medium have good emergency response effects.

[0004] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme:

[0005] In one aspect of the present invention, the extreme disaster event emergency response decision-making method of the present invention comprises:

[0006] Determine the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster, and construct a risk area map based on the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster;

[0007] According to the risk area map and the type of the main disaster, based on the random probability analysis method, determine the possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range;

[0008] Determine possible extreme secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range based on the possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range;

[0009] Carry out emergency response based on the possible extreme secondary disaster events and their impact scope.

[0010] The extreme disaster emergency response decision-making method of the present invention is further improved in that:

[0011] Furthermore, the process of determining the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster and constructing the risk area map according to the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster is as follows:

[0012] Determine the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster, conduct a survey on the consequences of the main disaster losses based on the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster, obtain survey results, and construct a risk area map based on the survey results.

[0013] Furthermore, the process of determining the possible secondary derivative disaster events based on the risk area map and the type of the main disaster and the random probability analysis method is as follows:

[0014] According to the risk area map and the type of the main disaster, all secondary derivative disaster events are associated with the unconventional evolution path;

[0015] Determine the probability of all secondary disaster events through random probability analysis methods;

[0016] Remove the secondary derivative disaster events whose probability is less than the preset probability threshold and obtain the possible secondary derivative disaster events.

[0017] Furthermore, all the secondary disaster events include but are not limited to landslides, mud-rock flows, public health events and social security events.

[0018] Furthermore, the process of emergency response according to possible extreme secondary disaster events and their impact range is as follows:

[0019] According to the possible extreme secondary disaster events and their impact scope, determine the power equipment that may be damaged and the impact scope of the power equipment after being damaged;

[0020] Determine the power equipment that needs to be protected and their priority order of protection according to the power equipment that may be damaged and the impact range after the power equipment is damaged;

[0021] According to the priority protection order of each power device that needs protection, the emergency protection capability of each power device that needs protection is strengthened.

[0022] In a second aspect of the present invention, the extreme disaster event emergency response decision-making system of the present invention comprises:

[0023] A first determination module is used to determine the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster, and to construct a risk area map according to the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster;

[0024] The second determination module is used to determine possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range based on the risk area map and the type of the main disaster and based on a random probability analysis method;

[0025] A third determination module is used to determine possible extreme secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range according to the possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range;

[0026] The response module is used to carry out emergency response according to the possible extreme secondary disaster events and their impact range.

[0027] The extreme disaster emergency response decision-making system of the present invention is further improved in that:

[0028] Furthermore, the second determining module includes:

[0029] A correlation module, for correlating all secondary derivative disaster events with an unconventional evolution path according to the risk area map and the type of the main disaster;

[0030] The fourth determination module is used to determine the probability of all secondary derivative disaster events through a random probability analysis method;

[0031] The removal module is used to remove secondary derivative disaster events with a probability less than a preset probability threshold, and obtain possible secondary derivative disaster events.

[0032] Furthermore, the response module includes:

[0033] A fifth determination module is used to determine the power equipment that may be damaged and the impact range of the power equipment after being damaged according to the possible extreme secondary derivative disaster event and its impact range;

[0034] A sixth determination module, used to determine the power equipment that needs to be protected and the priority protection order thereof according to the power equipment that may be damaged and the impact range after the power equipment is damaged;

[0035] The strengthening module is used to strengthen the emergency protection capability of each power device that needs protection according to the priority protection order of each power device that needs protection.

[0036] In a third aspect of the present invention, the computer device described in the present invention includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, and the processor implements the steps of the extreme disaster event emergency response decision-making method when executing the computer program.

[0037] In a fourth aspect of the present invention, the computer-readable storage medium described in the present invention stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the extreme disaster event emergency response decision-making method are implemented.

[0038] The present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0039] The extreme disaster event emergency response decision-making method, system, equipment and medium described in the present invention, during specific operation, determine the possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range according to the risk area map and the type of the main disaster based on the random probability analysis method, so as to accurately and reasonably infer the development of the disaster situation, while improving the accuracy of the prediction of the consequences of disaster losses. Then, based on the possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range, the possible extreme secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range are determined, and emergency response is carried out based on this, so as to improve the effect of emergency response, and the practicability is extremely strong. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0040] The accompanying drawings constituting a part of the present invention are used to provide a further understanding of the present invention. The exemplary embodiments of the present invention and their descriptions are used to explain the present invention and do not constitute an improper limitation of the present invention. In the accompanying drawings:

[0041] Figure 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention;

[0042] Figure 2 It is the principle diagram of the present invention;

[0043] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the evolution of disasters;

[0044] Figure 4 It is a system structure diagram of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0045] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the scheme of the present invention, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiment of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiment is only an embodiment of a part of the present invention, not all embodiments, and is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. In addition, in the following description, the description of well-known structures and technologies is omitted to avoid unnecessary confusion of the concepts disclosed in the present invention. Based on the embodiments in the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative work should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0046] The accompanying drawings show schematic diagrams of structures according to embodiments disclosed in the present invention. These figures are not drawn to scale, and some details are magnified and some details may be omitted for the purpose of clear expression. The shapes of various regions and layers shown in the figures and the relative sizes and positional relationships therebetween are only exemplary, and may deviate in practice due to manufacturing tolerances or technical limitations, and those skilled in the art may additionally design regions / layers with different shapes, sizes, and relative positions according to actual needs.

[0047] Embodiment 1

[0048] refer to Figure 1 , Figure 2 and Figure 3 The extreme disaster event emergency response decision-making method of the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0049] 1) Determine the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster, conduct a survey of the main disaster loss consequences based on the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster, obtain the survey results, and construct a risk area map based on the survey results;

[0050] It should be noted that the types of disasters include typhoon disasters, rainfall disasters and earthquake disasters.

[0051] 2) Analyze the possible secondary disaster events based on the risk area map and the type of primary disaster;

[0052] It should be noted that the possible secondary derivative disasters include landslides, mud-rock flows, public health incidents and social security incidents. At the same time, it is necessary to exclude events with a zero probability of occurrence in order to obtain possible secondary derivative disaster events.

[0053] The specific process of step 2) is:

[0054] Based on the risk area map and the type of the main disaster, all secondary derivative emergencies are associated with the unconventional evolution path;

[0055] Determine the probability of all secondary derivative emergencies through random probability analysis methods;

[0056] The secondary derivative emergencies with probabilities less than a preset probability threshold are removed to obtain the possible secondary derivative emergencies.

[0057] Specifically, according to the disaster chain, the possibility of each type of disaster and its impact range are analyzed step by step. Specifically, for each type of event, the minimum probability of occurrence A is set, and random numbers are calculated between A and 1 to determine whether the event will occur. The probability A at this time should be much higher than the probability predicted by traditional methods. According to the deduction of the secondary derivative disaster chain, the probability of occurrence of each type of event is analyzed step by step, and the location, time and intensity of the secondary derivative disaster are determined according to the location and intensity of the main disaster.

[0058] In addition, this embodiment also includes: integrating all possible secondary derivative emergencies to form a final extreme disaster scenario; and establishing an event chain association diagram between possible secondary derivative disasters and primary disasters.

[0059] 3) Obtaining the survey results according to step 1), obtaining the corresponding emergency plan, and issuing the emergency plan;

[0060] 4) Based on the extreme analysis method, determine the possible extreme secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range from all possible secondary derivative disaster events;

[0061] 5) Based on the possible extreme secondary disaster events and their impact range determined in step 4), determine the power equipment that may be damaged and the impact range of the power equipment after being damaged;

[0062] 6) The power equipment that may be damaged and the impact range after the power equipment is damaged, determine the power equipment that needs to be protected and their priority protection order;

[0063] It should be noted that when determining the priority protection order of each power equipment, it is necessary to consider the area covered by the impact after the damage, the number of electricity users affected, the important users affected, and the major activities affected, so as to determine the priority protection order of each power equipment that needs protection.

[0064] According to the power equipment that needs to be protected and its priority protection order, the staff can deploy teams, vehicles and protective equipment, and strengthen the emergency protection capabilities of each power equipment in turn according to the priority protection order, so as to reduce the losses in the face of extreme events.

[0065] It should be noted that the present invention has the following characteristics:

[0066] In response to disaster emergency decision-making issues, the traditional approach is to analyze the consequences of disasters based on historical data through scenario simulation, neural networks, decision numbers and other methods. However, due to structural differences between different cities, development changes in the same city at different time points and other reasons, there is a large gap between historical disaster cases and the latest disaster situations, making it difficult to accurately predict disaster losses, and rarely actively further analyze multiple types of secondary derivative disasters, thereby failing to effectively improve emergency response efficiency. In this regard, the present invention can comprehensively examine the impact of disasters from multiple angles, determine the core targets that really need to be protected and repaired first in the scenario of the evolution of severe disasters, and improve disaster emergency response capabilities.

[0067] In addition, the present invention breaks through the limitations of traditional disaster prediction ideas and can consider the scenarios of extreme evolution of various disasters. It can play a particularly important role in emergency response to extreme disasters, analyze scenarios that are difficult to predict with traditional methods, and formulate corresponding response strategies.

[0068] Embodiment 2

[0069] refer to Figure 4 The extreme disaster emergency response decision-making system of the present invention comprises:

[0070] A first determination module is used to determine the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster, and to construct a risk area map according to the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster;

[0071] The second determination module is used to determine possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range based on the risk area map and the type of the main disaster and based on a random probability analysis method;

[0072] A third determination module is used to determine possible extreme secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range according to the possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range;

[0073] The response module is used to carry out emergency response according to possible extreme secondary disaster events and their impact range.

[0074] The extreme disaster emergency response decision-making system of the present invention is further improved in that:

[0075] Furthermore, the second determining module includes:

[0076] A correlation module, for correlating all secondary derivative disaster events with an unconventional evolution path according to the risk area map and the type of the main disaster;

[0077] The fourth determination module is used to determine the probability of all secondary derivative disaster events through a random probability analysis method;

[0078] The removal module is used to remove secondary derivative disaster events with a probability less than a preset probability threshold, and obtain possible secondary derivative disaster events.

[0079] Furthermore, the response module includes:

[0080] A fifth determination module is used to determine the power equipment that may be damaged and the impact range of the power equipment after being damaged according to the possible extreme secondary derivative disaster event and its impact range;

[0081] A sixth determination module, used to determine the power equipment that needs to be protected and the priority protection order thereof according to the power equipment that may be damaged and the impact range after the power equipment is damaged;

[0082] The strengthening module is used to strengthen the emergency protection capability of each power device that needs to be protected according to the priority protection order of each power device that needs to be protected.

[0083] The division of modules in the embodiments of the present invention is schematic and is only a logical function division. There may be other division methods in actual implementation. In addition, each functional module in each embodiment of the present invention may be integrated into one processor, or may exist physically separately, or two or more modules may be integrated into one module. The above-mentioned integrated modules may be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of software functional modules.

[0084] Embodiment 3

[0085] A computer device includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor. When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the emergency response decision method for extreme disaster events are implemented, for example, including: determining the type, intensity, and impact range of the main disaster, and constructing a risk area map according to the type, intensity, and impact range of the main disaster; determining possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range based on the risk area map and the type of the main disaster based on a random probability analysis method; determining possible extreme secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range based on the possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range; and performing emergency response according to possible extreme secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range. The memory may include a memory, such as a high-speed random access memory, and may also include a non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk memory, etc. The processor, the network interface, and the memory are interconnected through an internal bus, and the internal bus may be an industrial standard architecture bus, a peripheral component interconnection standard bus, an extended industrial standard architecture bus, etc. The bus may be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, etc. The memory is used to store programs. Specifically, the program may include program code, and the program code includes computer operation instructions. The memory may include memory and nonvolatile memory and provides instructions and data to the processor.

[0086] Embodiment 4

[0087] A computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the emergency response decision method for extreme disaster events are implemented, for example, including: determining the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster, and constructing a risk area map according to the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster; determining possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range based on the risk area map and the type of the main disaster based on a random probability analysis method; determining possible extreme secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range based on the possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range; and performing emergency response according to possible extreme secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range. Specifically, the computer-readable storage medium includes, but is not limited to, for example, volatile memory and / or non-volatile memory. The volatile memory may include random access memory (RAM) and / or cache memory (cache), etc. The non-volatile memory may include a read-only memory (ROM), a hard disk, a flash memory, an optical disk, a magnetic disk, etc.

[0088] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention may take the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware. Moreover, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0089] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0090] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0091] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A step that specifies a function in one or more boxes.

[0092] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the relevant field should understand that the specific implementation methods of the present invention can still be modified or replaced by equivalents. Any modification or equivalent replacement that does not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A decision-making method for emergency response to extreme disaster events, characterized in that: include: Determine the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster, and construct a risk area map based on the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster; According to the risk area map and the type of the main disaster, based on the random probability analysis method, determine the possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range; Determine possible extreme secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range based on the possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range; Carry out emergency response based on the possible extreme secondary disaster events and their impact scope.

2. The extreme disaster event emergency response decision-making method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The process of determining the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster and constructing a risk area map according to the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster is as follows: Determine the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster, conduct a survey on the consequences of the main disaster losses based on the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster, obtain survey results, and construct a risk area map based on the survey results.

3. The method for emergency response decision-making for extreme disaster events according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The process of determining possible secondary disaster events based on the risk area map and the type of the main disaster and the random probability analysis method is as follows: According to the risk area map and the type of the main disaster, all secondary derivative disaster events are associated with the unconventional evolution path; Determine the probability of all secondary disaster events through random probability analysis methods; Remove the secondary derivative disaster events whose probability is less than the preset probability threshold and obtain the possible secondary derivative disaster events.

4. The method for emergency response decision-making for extreme disaster events according to claim 3 is characterized in that: All secondary disaster events mentioned include but are not limited to: landslides, mudslides, public health incidents and social security incidents.

5. The method for emergency response decision-making for extreme disaster events according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The process of emergency response according to the possible extreme secondary disaster events and their impact range is as follows: According to the possible extreme secondary disaster events and their impact scope, determine the power equipment that may be damaged and the impact scope of the power equipment after being damaged; Determine the power equipment that needs to be protected and their priority order of protection according to the power equipment that may be damaged and the impact range after the power equipment is damaged; According to the priority protection order of each power device that needs protection, the emergency protection capability of each power device that needs protection is strengthened.

6. An extreme disaster emergency response decision-making system, characterized in that: include: A first determination module is used to determine the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster, and to construct a risk area map according to the type, intensity and impact range of the main disaster; The second determination module is used to determine possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range based on the risk area map and the type of the main disaster and based on a random probability analysis method; A third determination module is used to determine possible extreme secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range according to the possible secondary derivative disaster events and their impact range; The response module is used to carry out emergency response according to the possible extreme secondary disaster events and their impact range.

7. The extreme disaster event emergency response decision-making system according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The second determining module comprises: A correlation module, for correlating all secondary derivative disaster events with an unconventional evolution path according to the risk area map and the type of the main disaster; The fourth determination module is used to determine the probability of all secondary derivative disaster events through a random probability analysis method; The removal module is used to remove secondary derivative disaster events with a probability less than a preset probability threshold, and obtain possible secondary derivative disaster events.

8. The extreme disaster event emergency response decision-making system according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The response module comprises: A fifth determination module is used to determine the power equipment that may be damaged and the impact range of the power equipment after being damaged according to the possible extreme secondary derivative disaster event and its impact range; A sixth determination module, used to determine the power equipment that needs to be protected and the priority protection order thereof according to the power equipment that may be damaged and the impact range after the power equipment is damaged; The strengthening module is used to strengthen the emergency protection capability of each power device that needs protection according to the priority protection order of each power device that needs protection.

9. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that: When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the extreme disaster event emergency response decision-making method as described in any one of claims 1-4 are implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the extreme disaster event emergency response decision-making method as described in any one of claims 1 to 4 are implemented.

Images