Method for measuring and calculating investment capacity of power grid enterprise
By constructing its own funds and external funds calculation models, power grid companies can accurately calculate investment capabilities and optimize the investment structure, solve the challenge of investment decisions after transmission and distribution prices, and achieve sustainable development of power grid companies.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202411931248.X
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2024-12-26
- Publication Date
- 2025-01-28
- Estimated Expiration
- Not applicable · inactive patent
Smart Images
Figure CN119379337A_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of electric power market, and in particular to a method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise. Background Art
[0002] The reform of transmission and distribution prices has profoundly changed the profit model of power grid enterprises, from the traditional purchase and sale price difference model to a model based on allowable costs and reasonable returns. Power grid enterprises must have higher accuracy and foresight when making investment decisions to ensure that each investment can get the due return under the new pricing mechanism. In order to achieve this goal, power grid enterprises need to make more accurate calculations of their investment capabilities, which is not only the basis for the stable operation of enterprises, but also the key to their sustainable development. At the same time, it is particularly important to optimize the investment structure. Power grid enterprises must carefully analyze the risks and benefits of various investments and reasonably allocate resources to further ensure or strive for more favorable transmission and distribution price levels. Under the new profit model, power grid enterprises face both challenges and opportunities. Only those enterprises that can quickly adapt to reforms, accurately calculate investment capabilities and optimize investment structures can stand out in the fierce market competition and achieve sustainable development.
[0003] Therefore, how to provide a method that can adapt to reform, accurately measure investment capacity and optimize investment structure is a technical problem that needs to be urgently solved by technical personnel in this field. Summary of the invention
[0004] To achieve the purpose of the present invention, the present application provides a method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise, comprising: Step S1: constructing a power grid enterprise investment capacity estimation model based on the investment capacity components of the power grid enterprise; The investment capacity calculation model of the power grid enterprise includes: a self-owned funds calculation model and an external funds calculation model; Step S2: determining the constraint conditions of the own funds calculation model according to the additional investment restrictions, growth requirements and balance account profit and loss of the power grid enterprise, so as to calculate the internal investment capacity of the power grid enterprise; Step S3: Determine the constraint conditions of the external capital calculation model according to the debt situation of the power grid enterprise and the profit situation in the previous year, and calculate the external investment capacity of the power grid enterprise every year through iteration year by year; Step S4: Determine model parameters according to the actual situation of the measurement target, and bring the model parameters into the power grid enterprise investment capacity measurement model to determine the maximum investment capacity of the power grid enterprise in each year.
[0005] In some specific embodiments, in step S1, the investment capacity components of the power grid enterprise include: retained earnings, depreciation, new loans and new current assets.
[0006] In some specific embodiments, the calculation model of the own funds is determined according to the following formula: ; In the formula, K t represents the own funds in year t; L t represents the retained earnings in year t; Z t represents the depreciation in year t; J t represents the retained current assets in year t.
[0007] In some specific embodiments, the retained earnings, depreciation and retained current assets are respectively: ; ; ; ; Where: L t represents the retained earnings in year t; represents the permitted return in year t; represents the total effective assets in year t; represents the weighted average return on capital in year t; Z t represents the depreciation in year t; It represents the net value of fixed assets of category p formed before January 1, 2015; represents the median depreciation period of the p-th type of fixed assets; It represents the original value of fixed assets of category p formed in 2016 and later; represents the depreciation period of the p-th type of fixed assets; J t represents the retained current assets in year t; C t represents the total operating cost in year t; C t-1 represents the total operating cost in year t-1; It indicates the proportion of provision for retained current assets.
[0008] In some specific embodiments, the constraint function of the additional investment restriction of the power grid enterprise is determined according to the following formula: ; In the formula, I t represents the additional investment amount in year t; K t represents the investment capacity at the beginning of year t.
[0009] In some specific embodiments, the constraint function of the growth demand of the power grid enterprise is determined according to the following formula: ; ; ; In the formula, represents the investment demand for power grid infrastructure in year t; A represents other investment needs other than power grid infrastructure in year t; t-1 represents the total fixed assets in year t-1; P t represents the maximum power load in year t; P t-1 represents the maximum electricity load in year t-1; Indicates the fixed assets conversion rate.
[0010] In some specific embodiments, the constraint function of the profit and loss of the balancing account of the power grid enterprise is determined according to the following formula: ; ; In the formula, represents the actual income in year t; H t represents the permitted income in year t; represents the permitted return in year t; It represents the actual value of power transmission and distribution at voltage level k in year t; It represents the approved value of transmission and distribution price for voltage level k in year t.
[0011] In some specific embodiments, in step S3, the external funds calculation model is determined according to the following formula: ; ; ; In the formula, R t represents the additional external funds in year t; It represents the size of external funds brought by the assets and liabilities in year t; represents the scale of external funds brought by profits in year t; Indicates the upper limit of debt-to-asset ratio; Q t-1 represents the total assets in year t-1; D t-1 represents the new liabilities in year t-1; G t-1 represents the newly added equity capital in year t-1; S t-1 represents the total liabilities in year t-1; n represents the accounting period, which is generally three years; L t represents the retained earnings in year t.
[0012] In some specific embodiments, step S4 further includes: Step S41: Calculate the maximum value of internal funds of the own funds calculation model according to the model parameters; Step S42: determining the maximum value of external funds of the external funds calculation model according to the calculation result of the own funds calculation model; Step S43: Add the maximum internal funds and the maximum external funds by year to obtain the maximum investment capacity of the power grid company in each year.
[0013] In some specific embodiments, the model parameters include: depreciation period, residual value rate, base period and base period related values.
[0014] Beneficial effects of the above technical solution: The method for calculating the investment capacity of power grid enterprises provided in this application can quickly adapt to the current changes in transmission and distribution prices, accurately calculate the investment capacity of power grid enterprises and optimize the investment structure of power grid enterprises based on the calculation results, thereby achieving sustainable development of power grid enterprises. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0015] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application, the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.
[0016] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise under a change in transmission and distribution prices provided by an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 2 A schematic diagram of a method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise under a change in transmission and distribution prices is provided for an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0017] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described clearly and completely below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments.
[0018] Examples of the embodiments are shown in the accompanying drawings, wherein the same or similar symbols throughout represent the same or similar elements or elements with the same or similar functions. The embodiments described below with reference to the accompanying drawings are exemplary and are intended to be used to explain the present invention, and should not be construed as limiting the present invention.
[0019] Embodiment 1 An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise under the change of transmission and distribution prices, referring to Figure 1 , Figure 2 As shown, including: Step S1: constructing a power grid enterprise investment capacity estimation model based on the investment capacity components of the power grid enterprise; The power grid enterprise investment capacity calculation model includes: a self-owned funds calculation model and an external funds calculation model.
[0020] In a specific embodiment of the present invention, in step S1, the investment capacity components of the power grid enterprise include: retained earnings, depreciation, new loans and new current assets.
[0021] Specifically, under the power transmission and distribution price reform environment, the power grid's revenue source has changed to collecting network fees, rather than earning price differences. At the same time, the power transmission and distribution price reform plan has made clear provisions for the depreciation of power grid fixed assets, which is significantly different from the previous fixed asset depreciation provision. In order to distinguish it from the investment capacity calculation formula of power grid enterprises before the power transmission and distribution price reform, the investment capacity calculation formula after the power transmission and distribution price reform is expressed as follows: ; Where: represents the investment capacity in year t under the transmission and distribution price reform; represents the retained profit in the tth year under the transmission and distribution price reform (net profit minus the profit surrendered); represents the depreciation in the tth year under the transmission and distribution price reform; represents the additional borrowing in year t under the transmission and distribution price reform; Represents the additional current assets in year t under the transmission and distribution price reform.
[0022] (1) Retained earnings Under the conditions of transmission and distribution price determination, power grid enterprises determine transmission and distribution prices by voltage level and user according to the transmission and distribution price determination regulations. Here, only the situation of different voltage levels is considered. The income of power grid enterprises is the sum of the product of the sales volume of each voltage level and the corresponding transmission and distribution price. At this time, the retained profit of power grid enterprises can be expressed as: ; In the formula, represents the retained profit in the tth year under the transmission and distribution price reform; represents the electricity sales of voltage level k in year t; represents the transmission and distribution price of voltage level k in year t; represents the non-operating income in year t; represents the non-operating costs in year t; Represents the profit surrendered in year t.
[0023] Under the current transmission and distribution price accounting method, the permitted income is calculated based on the total effective assets of the power grid enterprise through the permitted rate of return. Under ideal conditions, the annual income of the power grid enterprise is the permitted income. At this time, the investment amount, operation and maintenance fees, and electricity sales of the power grid in that year are all predicted values. Obviously, the probability of the ideal situation is small. Therefore, considering the possible difference between the permitted income and the permitted income, the balancing account mechanism is introduced. In the relevant regulations, during the supervision period of the power grid enterprise, the difference between the actual income of transmission and distribution and the permitted income is adjusted by setting up a balancing account. The excess part enters the balancing account, and the shortfall is made up by the balancing account. Among them, the balancing account is set up in the power grid enterprise. Therefore, it can be considered that the total annual profit of the power grid enterprise is the permitted income.
[0024] The allowable income is equal to the effective assets for which income can be accrued multiplied by the weighted average rate of return on capital. Effective assets for which income can be accrued refer to effective assets formed by the investment of power grid enterprises and which can obtain investment income. Assets formed by non-power grid enterprise investment such as free transfer by users or local departments, and assets of non-transmission and distribution business separated from power grid business are not subject to investment income. Effective assets include fixed assets, current assets, intangible assets, projects under construction, etc.
[0025] 1) Fixed assets, investments in land, buildings, plants and equipment directly or indirectly related to the transmission, distribution and energy conservation of electricity, as well as renovation and improvement projects converted into assets.
[0026] 2) Current assets: reasonable inventory of raw materials, supplies, fuel, etc. to ensure the effective operation of the power company; reasonable advance payments for operations; reasonable monetary funds, etc.
[0027] 3) Intangible assets, including start-up costs, franchise rights and other valuable patent licenses, priority rights and other intangible assets that are essential to the operation of the power company.
[0028] 4) Construction in progress: construction projects that are effectively and prudently planned and managed and are reasonable from a financial accounting perspective.
[0029] 5) Special investment refers to research and resource development that is conducive to ensuring stable power supply, which is necessary for the healthy operation of power companies and cannot be paid back for a considerable period of time.
[0030] From an investment perspective, the total effective assets of power grid enterprises are the sum of existing effective assets and newly added effective assets. Among them, the existing effective assets are the total effective assets in the base year or the previous year, which can be obtained by summing up the historical data. Newly added effective assets are the increase in effective assets generated by the annual new investment. When calculating the newly added effective assets, the increase in each part of the effective assets can be calculated separately and then summed up. Therefore, the total effective assets of the power grid can be expressed as: ; ; In the formula, represents the total effective assets in year t; represents the total effective assets in year t-1; represents the effective asset increment caused by the new investment in year t-1; represents the increment of fixed assets caused by the new investment in year t-1; represents the increase in current assets caused by the new investment in year t-1; represents the increase in intangible assets caused by the new investment in year t-1; represents the increment of projects under construction caused by the new investment in year t-1; It represents the increment of special investment caused by the new investment in year t-1; the permitted rate of return is obtained by calculating the weighted capital return rate.
[0031] ; In the formula, represents the weighted average return on capital in year t; represents the equity capital gain in the first year; represents the debt-to-asset ratio in year t; It represents the debt capital return rate (or debt capital cost rate) in the tth year.
[0032] Among them, the return on equity capital is determined by the 10-year treasury bond yield announced by the Ministry of Finance one year before the beginning of the regulatory cycle plus 1-3 percentage points of investment opportunity loss, and the investment opportunity loss is determined with reference to the actual operation of power grid enterprises and local power industry; the return on debt capital is determined with reference to the benchmark interest rate of RMB 5-year and above loans in the same period and the actual financing structure and borrowing interest rate of power grid enterprises; the debt-to-asset ratio is determined with reference to the average of the debt-to-asset ratio of power grid enterprises in the three years before the beginning of the regulatory cycle. The return on equity capital and the return on debt capital are 4.73% (long-term treasury bond interest rate is one percentage point higher) and 4.75% (long-term loan interest rate) respectively. Debt capital is also calculated for non-interest-bearing liabilities. Non-interest-bearing liabilities refer to liabilities that do not require interest payments since the formation of liabilities. Mainly including accounts payable, accrued expenses, etc.
[0033] The permitted revenue of the power grid company can be expressed as: ; In the formula, represents the permitted return in year t; represents the total effective assets in year t; represents the weighted average return on capital in year t.
[0034] Since corporate income tax has been calculated in the tax during the calculation of transmission and distribution prices, the permitted income can be used as the net profit of the power grid enterprise for the year. From the financial statements, the annual net profit of each provincial power grid enterprise belongs to the power grid enterprise. However, in essence, it is difficult to predict the net profit of the power grid enterprise, and the relevant information is not public. Therefore, in this project research, the part after deducting 10% of the statutory surplus reserve from the permitted income is assumed to be the retained profit of the power grid enterprise.
[0035] ; In the formula, represents the retained profit in the tth year under the transmission and distribution price reform; represents the allowed return in year t.
[0036] (2) Depreciation In the reform of transmission and distribution prices, depreciation refers to the expenses that power grid enterprises accrue based on the original value of transmission and distribution fixed assets and the pricing depreciation rate approved by the price regulatory authorities. The calculation method is as follows: 1) Original value of fixed assets Transmission and distribution fixed assets refer to assets including lines, substation equipment and other assets related to transmission and distribution business that are recognized by the power industry management department as being in compliance with the plan. The following fixed assets are not included in the scope of permitted cost verification for transmission and distribution: transmission and distribution assets that have not been approved by the investment management department or the state-owned assets management department; auxiliary businesses separated from power grid enterprises, multi-business and tertiary industry assets. If the original value of transmission and distribution fixed assets has been cleared and verified in accordance with regulations, it shall be confirmed according to the value of various types of fixed assets recognized by the finance or state-owned assets department.
[0037] 2) Depreciation rate The depreciation rate of fixed assets for power transmission and distribution is calculated using the straight-line method. For existing fixed assets for power transmission and distribution formed before January 1, 2015, the depreciation rate is calculated based on the median of the depreciation period specified by the power grid enterprises. For incremental assets formed on or after January 1, 2015, the approved classification depreciation rate and depreciation period are used for calculation. The residual value rate of fixed assets is generally determined at 5%. Fixed assets that have been fully depreciated but are still in use will no longer be depreciated.
[0038] Under the reform of transmission and distribution prices, the fixed assets of power grid enterprises are divided into two parts with January 1, 2015 as the boundary. The fixed assets formed before and after this time point use different depreciation periods. Therefore, the depreciation of fixed assets of power grid enterprises can be expressed as: ; In the formula, represents the depreciation in the tth year under the transmission and distribution price reform; It represents the net value of fixed assets of category p formed before January 1, 2015; represents the median depreciation period of the p-th type of fixed assets; It represents the original value of fixed assets of category p formed in 2016 and later; It represents the depreciation period of the p-th type of fixed assets; It indicates the proportion of provision for retained current assets.
[0039] (3) New financing Under the condition of meeting reasonable financial risks, power grid enterprises can make full use of financing means to increase the investment capacity of power grid enterprises. Here, the financial risk of power grid enterprises is mainly measured by the asset-liability ratio. In the process of calculating the investment capacity of power grid enterprises, the difference between the annual financing amount and the repayment amount of that year is the new financing, or the new borrowing. That is, there is such an assumption that the total financing amount of this year is first used to repay and make up the total liabilities of the previous year, and the increase in the total liabilities of this year compared with the liabilities of the previous year is the part that the power grid enterprise can use for investment. The new financing is the actual increase in liabilities of the power grid, and it is also the actual increase in investment capacity.
[0040] ; In the formula, represents the new financing in year t; represents the total assets in year t-1; represents the total profit in year t; represents the total liabilities in year t-1; represents the debt-to-asset ratio in year t.
[0041] (4) New current assets The newly added current assets are mainly used to pay the period expenses generated in daily operating activities, and also include the payment of short-term liabilities such as short-term loans, long-term loan interest, employee salaries payable, and notes payable. By analyzing the historical data of the power grid, there is also a correlation between the two. Therefore, the retained current assets of each year can be calculated according to the annual total operating cost of the power grid enterprise at a fixed ratio: ; In the formula, represents the new current assets in year t; represents the total operating cost in year t; represents the total operating cost in year t-1; It indicates the proportion of provision for retained current assets.
[0042] Step S2: Determine the constraint conditions of the own funds calculation model according to the grid enterprise's new investment restrictions, growth requirements and balance account profit and loss to calculate the grid enterprise's internal investment capacity.
[0043] Specifically, to construct a self-owned funds calculation model, we must first determine the upper limit of the annual investment capacity of power grid companies: ; Where Y t represents the investment capacity in year t; K t represents the own funds in year t; R t represents the additional external funds in year t.
[0044] The investment capacity of power grid enterprises is the upper limit of the investment amount. Specific analysis shows that the investment capacity of power grid enterprises is composed of retained earnings, depreciation, financing amount and retained current assets. Under the conditions of power transmission and distribution price changes, retained earnings can be calculated from permitted earnings. From the calculation relationship, it can be seen that depreciation and permitted earnings can be represented by new investment, financing amount can be represented by permitted earnings, and retained current assets can be obtained by prediction. Therefore, setting the annual new investment as a variable is convenient for constructing a calculation model to obtain the investment capacity of power grid enterprises.
[0045] The calculation model of own funds is determined according to the following formula: ; In the formula, K t represents the own funds in year t; L t represents the retained profit in year t (net profit minus profit surrendered); Z t represents the depreciation in year t; J t represents the retained current assets in year t.
[0046] Among them, retained earnings, depreciation and retained current assets are: ; ; ; ; Where: L t represents the retained earnings in year t; represents the permitted return in year t; represents the total effective assets in year t; represents the weighted average return on capital in year t; Z t represents the depreciation in year t; It represents the net value of fixed assets of category p formed before January 1, 2015; represents the median depreciation period of the p-th type of fixed assets; It represents the original value of fixed assets of category p formed in 2016 and later; represents the depreciation period of the p-th type of fixed assets; J t represents the retained current assets in year t; C trepresents the total operating cost in year t; C t-1 represents the total operating cost in year t-1; It indicates the proportion of provision for retained current assets.
[0047] Since the current transmission and distribution price regulation cycle is 3 years, considering that the formation of investment capacity and its impact are both time-lagged, that is, the investment capacity of this year is limited by the new investment of the previous year, and the investment capacity of this year will limit the investment of this year, and the mutual influence of the two will continue. Therefore, when constructing a multi-year self-owned funds calculation model, in order to make the investment capacity of each year additive, it is necessary to consider the time value of funds.
[0048] Specifically, the power grid company's own funds will be subject to various constraints such as new investment restrictions, demand growth, and balance account profit and loss. When constructing the investment direction portfolio optimization model of the power grid company, these constraints need to be taken into account.
[0049] (1) New investment restrictions During the investment process, the power grid company's current investment capacity is determined by measuring the total amount of assets available for investment activities held by the power grid company at the time of making the investment decision, and its financing capacity under the combined influence of the existing total assets and the financial status of the assets.
[0050] The investment capacity calculated by the above method is equivalent to the value at the beginning of the year. At this time, the key variable affecting the investment capacity is the new investment in the previous year. Since fewer forecast values are used, the risk faced is relatively small. Therefore, the investment capacity of power grid enterprises is calculated, that is, the investment capacity is the value at the beginning of the year. The new investment this year cannot exceed the value at the beginning of the year for investment capacity, expressed as: ; In the formula, I t represents the additional investment amount in year t; K t represents the investment capacity at the beginning of year t.
[0051] (2) Demand growth constraints The reasons for the investment demand of power grid enterprises include the reliability of existing power grid equipment not meeting the requirements, the renewal of old equipment, and the access of new users. In investment decisions, power grid enterprises must first ensure that the investment caused by demand is met, which is the lower limit of the annual new investment. The maximum load growth of the power grid is used to represent the degree of demand growth, where the maximum load growth can be obtained through load forecasting, and thus the investment demand for power grid infrastructure is obtained. Other investment demands besides power grid infrastructure can be obtained by using the moving average forecast of historical data: ; ; ; In the formula, represents the investment demand for power grid infrastructure in year t; A represents other investment needs other than power grid infrastructure in year t; t-1 represents the total fixed assets in year t-1; P t represents the maximum power load in year t; P t-1 represents the maximum electricity load in year t-1; Indicates the fixed assets conversion rate.
[0052] (3) Balance Account Profit and Loss Constraints According to the provisions of the method for determining the transmission and distribution price, the transmission and distribution price is equal to the ratio of the permitted income to the amount of transmission and distribution. In the process of calculating the permitted income, a large number of forecast values are used. In the actual operation process, there is inevitably an error between the actual income obtained by calculating the actual expenditure and the permitted income. Therefore, in order to adjust the error, a balancing account adjustment is specially established. During the supervision period of the power grid enterprise, the difference between the actual income and the permitted income of power transmission and distribution is adjusted by setting up a balancing account. The excess amount is entered into the balancing account, and the shortfall is made up by the balancing account. In order to ensure that the profit of the power grid is positive, the loss of the balancing account cannot exceed the permitted income, as follows: ; ; In the formula, represents the actual income in year t; H t represents the permitted income in year t; represents the permitted return in year t; It represents the actual value of power transmission and distribution at voltage level k in year t; It represents the approved value of transmission and distribution price for voltage level k in year t.
[0053] According to the transmission and distribution price calculation process, the transmission and distribution price calculated on a periodic basis is actually the weighted average of the transmission and distribution prices of each year. Within a regulatory cycle, the various measured quantities may differ. In order to ensure reasonable returns in the next cycle, power grid companies may increase investment in the last year of the regulatory cycle to increase permitted income for the next cycle. Therefore, the balance account situation may differ within the same regulatory cycle. From the perspective of the overall transmission and distribution price regulatory cycle, within the three-year accounting cycle, the sum of the three-year balance account should be greater than or equal to zero: ; In the formula, represents the actual income in year t; H t represents the allowed income in year t.
[0054] Step S3: Determine the constraints of the external capital calculation model according to the debt situation of the power grid enterprise and the profit situation in the previous year, and calculate the external investment capacity of the power grid enterprise every year through iteration year by year.
[0055] In a specific embodiment of the present invention, if the debt-to-asset ratio is less than the upper limit, in order to meet investment needs, the power grid can obtain funds by appropriately increasing liabilities, but the final debt-to-asset ratio cannot exceed the prescribed upper limit. Therefore, the additional financing capacity reflected by the gap between the actual debt-to-asset ratio and the expected debt-to-asset ratio is an important part of the power grid's investment capacity. Similarly, when solving for the maximum investment capacity, the expected debt-to-asset ratio is also the maximum value. At the same time, the scale of new external funds for the power grid comes from two aspects: the financing limit brought by the financial situation itself and the financing scale generated by the annual profit of the enterprise. The external funds calculation model is determined according to the following formula: ; ; ; In the formula, R t represents the additional external funds in year t; It represents the size of external funds brought by the assets and liabilities in year t; represents the scale of external funds brought by profits in year t; Indicates the upper limit of debt-to-asset ratio; Q t-1 represents the total assets in year t-1; D t-1 represents the new liabilities in year t-1; G t-1 represents the newly added equity capital in year t-1; S t-1 represents the total liabilities in year t-1; n represents the accounting period, which is generally three years; L t represents the retained earnings in year t.
[0056] The scale of external funds in the investment capacity of power grid enterprises is limited by the current status of power grid financial assets and liabilities on the one hand, and by the profit situation in the previous year on the other hand. Among them, the scale of external funds brought by the assets and liabilities situation refers to the difference between the current assets and liabilities of power grid enterprises and the maximum assets and liabilities situation; the scale of external funds brought by profits refers to the maximum amount of liabilities that can be brought by the retained profits of power grid enterprises. In the actual calculation process, it is necessary to iterate year by year to calculate the investment capacity of each year within the calculation cycle.
[0057] Step S4: Determine model parameters according to the actual situation of the measurement target, and bring the model parameters into the power grid enterprise investment capacity measurement model to determine the maximum investment capacity of the power grid enterprise in each year.
[0058] In a specific embodiment of the present invention, step S4 further includes: Step S41: Calculate the maximum value of internal funds of the own funds calculation model according to the model parameters; Step S42: determining the maximum value of external funds of the external funds calculation model according to the calculation result of the own funds calculation model; Step S43: Add the maximum internal funds and the maximum external funds by year to obtain the maximum investment capacity of the power grid company in each year.
[0059] In a specific embodiment of the present invention, the model parameters include: depreciation period, residual value rate, base period and base period related values.
[0060] The method for calculating the investment capacity of power grid enterprises under the changes in transmission and distribution prices provided in this application can quickly adapt to the current changes in transmission and distribution prices, accurately calculate the investment capacity of power grid enterprises and optimize the investment structure of power grid enterprises based on the calculation results, thereby achieving sustainable development of power grid enterprises.
[0061] The above is only a specific embodiment of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art can easily think of changes or substitutions within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, which should be included in the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention should be based on the protection scope of the claims.
[0062] Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. The same or similar parts between the embodiments can be referenced to each other. The embodiments of the present invention are described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, terminal devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing terminal device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing terminal device generate instructions for implementing the functions in the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 These computer program instructions can also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can guide a computer or other programmable data processing terminal device to work in a specific way, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce a product including an instruction device, which implements the functions specified in the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing terminal device, so that a series of operation steps are executed on the computer or other programmable terminal device to produce a computer-implemented process, so that the instructions executed on the computer or other programmable terminal device provide for implementing the process in the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the functions specified in one or more boxes. Although the preferred embodiments of the embodiments of the present invention have been described, those skilled in the art may make additional changes and modifications to these embodiments once they know the basic creative concept. Therefore, the attached claims are intended to be interpreted as including the preferred embodiments and all changes and modifications that fall within the scope of the embodiments of the present invention. Finally, it should be noted that, in this article, relational terms such as first and second, etc. are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply that there is any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or any other variant thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that the process, method, article or terminal device including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements that are not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or terminal device. In the absence of more restrictions, the elements defined by the sentence "including one..." do not exclude the existence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or terminal device including the elements.
[0063] The method and device provided by the present invention are introduced in detail above. Specific examples are used in this article to illustrate the principle and implementation mode of the present invention. The description of the above embodiments is only used to help understand the method of the present invention and its core idea. At the same time, for those skilled in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, there will be changes in the specific implementation mode and application scope. In summary, the content of this specification should not be understood as limiting the present invention.
[0064] In the description of this specification, the description with reference to the terms "one embodiment", "some embodiments", "example", "specific example", "one specific embodiment" or "some examples" etc. means that the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described in conjunction with the embodiment or example are included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the schematic representation of terms does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Moreover, the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described may be combined in any one or more embodiments or examples in a suitable manner.
[0065] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, rather than to limit it. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application.
Claims
1. A method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise, characterized in that: include: Step S1: constructing a power grid enterprise investment capacity estimation model based on the investment capacity components of the power grid enterprise; The investment capacity calculation model of the power grid enterprise includes: a self-owned funds calculation model and an external funds calculation model; Step S2: determining the constraint conditions of the own funds calculation model according to the additional investment restrictions, growth requirements and balance account profit and loss of the power grid enterprise, so as to calculate the internal investment capacity of the power grid enterprise; Step S3: Determine the constraint conditions of the external capital calculation model according to the debt situation of the power grid enterprise and the profit situation in the previous year, and calculate the external investment capacity of the power grid enterprise every year through iteration year by year; Step S4: Determine model parameters according to the actual situation of the measurement target, and bring the model parameters into the power grid enterprise investment capacity measurement model to determine the maximum investment capacity of the power grid enterprise in each year.
2. The method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S1, the investment capacity components of the power grid enterprise include: retained earnings, depreciation, new loans and new current assets.
3. The method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation model of the own funds is determined according to the following formula: ； In the formula, K t represents the own funds in year t; L t represents the retained earnings in year t; Z t represents the depreciation in year t; J t represents the retained current assets in year t.
4. The method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise according to claim 3, characterized in that: The retained earnings, depreciation and retained current assets are: ； ； ； ； Where: L t represents the retained earnings in year t; represents the permitted return in year t; represents the total effective assets in year t; represents the weighted average return on capital in year t; Z t represents the depreciation in year t; It represents the net value of fixed assets of category p formed before January 1, 2015; represents the median depreciation period of the p-th type of fixed assets; It represents the original value of fixed assets of category p formed in 2016 and later; represents the depreciation period of the p-th type of fixed assets; J t represents the retained current assets in year t; C t represents the total operating cost in year t; C t-1 represents the total operating cost in year t-1; It indicates the proportion of provision for retained current assets.
5. The method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise according to claim 1, characterized in that: The constraint function for the new investment restrictions of power grid enterprises is determined according to the following formula: ； In the formula, I t represents the additional investment amount in year t; K t represents the investment capacity at the beginning of year t.
6. The method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise according to claim 1, characterized in that: The constraint function of the growth demand of power grid enterprises is determined according to the following formula: ； ； ； In the formula, represents the investment demand for power grid infrastructure in year t; A represents other investment needs other than power grid infrastructure in year t; t-1 represents the total fixed assets in year t-1; P t represents the maximum power load in year t; P t-1 represents the maximum electricity load in year t-1; Indicates the fixed assets conversion rate.
7. The method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise according to claim 1, characterized in that: The constraint function of the profit and loss of the balance account of the power grid enterprise is determined according to the following formula: ； ； In the formula, represents the actual income in year t; H t represents the permitted income in year t; represents the permitted return in year t; It represents the actual value of power transmission and distribution at voltage level k in year t; It represents the approved value of transmission and distribution price for voltage level k in year t.
8. The method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S3, the external funds calculation model is determined according to the following formula: ； ； ； In the formula, R t represents the additional external funds in year t; It represents the size of external funds brought by the assets and liabilities in year t; represents the scale of external funds brought by profits in year t; Indicates the upper limit of debt-to-asset ratio; Q t-1 represents the total assets in year t-1; D t-1 represents the new liabilities in year t-1; G t-1 represents the newly added equity capital in year t-1; S t-1 represents the total liabilities in year t-1; n represents the accounting period, which is generally three years; L t represents the retained earnings in year t.
9. The method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step S4 also includes: Step S41: Calculate the maximum value of internal funds of the own funds calculation model according to the model parameters; Step S42: determining the maximum value of external funds of the external funds calculation model according to the calculation result of the own funds calculation model; Step S43: Add the maximum internal funds and the maximum external funds by year to obtain the maximum investment capacity of the power grid company in each year.
10. The method for calculating the investment capacity of a power grid enterprise according to claim 9, characterized in that: The model parameters include: depreciation period, residual value rate, base period and base period related values.