Pumped storage installation and continuous full-running hour demand analysis method

Abstract

The invention provides a pumped storage installation and continuous full generation hour demand analysis method, which comprises the following steps: S1, under the condition of not considering a pumped storage power station, carrying out annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation to obtain an annual hour-by-hour power balance result; s2, counting the maximum power vacancy Pnmax and the maximum continuous power vacancy Enmax; s3, calculating the installed capacity Sn of the pumped storage power station and the continuous full power generation hours hn of the pumped storage power station; s4, Sn and hn are considered, annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation is carried out again, and whether power vacancy exists in a new annual hourly power balance result or not is judged; s5, if power shortage exists, the steps S2 to S4 are executed repeatedly; and if the power shortage does not exist, taking the last calculated installed capacity of the pumped storage power station and the continuous full generation hours of the pumped storage power station as the installed capacity and the continuous full generation hours of the pumped storage power station required by the system. The installed capacity benefit of the pumped storage power station is fully exerted, and coal power and other conventional power supplies are replaced for installation.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power system planning, and in particular to a method for analyzing demand for pumped storage installations and continuous full-generation hours. Background Art

[0002] Pumped-storage power stations can realize large-scale time transfer of electricity, store surplus electricity in local periods, and emit it during periods of insufficient electricity to meet load power supply needs, playing the role of peak shaving and valley filling, and improving the system's power supply capacity. At the same time, pumped-storage power stations also have multiple functions such as storing new energy abandoned electricity, frequency regulation, phase regulation, emergency backup and black start. They are an important support for the new power system and an important part of building a clean, low-carbon, safe, reliable, smart, flexible, economical and efficient new power system.

[0003] The current mainstream method for demonstrating the installed capacity scale of pumped storage power stations in the system uses a typical control method to balance the power supply to determine the power gap, considering that the gap is filled by coal-fired power, so as to determine the total installed capacity. Then, keeping the total installed capacity unchanged, the system power generation cost change is calculated by increasing the pumped storage capacity with equal capacity and reducing the coal-fired power installed capacity, and the power generation cost inflection point is obtained to obtain the pumped storage installed capacity. The method for determining the total installed capacity in this method uses a control method to balance, and the gap is filled by coal-fired power, which does not meet the actual needs of low-carbon development. At the same time, the full capacity of pumped storage to replace coal-fired power lacks time-series production simulation verification, which is inconsistent with the actual replacement rate, resulting in the calculated system power supply capacity not being consistent with the actual situation, and lacks the demonstration of the continuous full-generation hours demand of the system's overall pumped storage. Against the background of large-scale development of new energy, the demonstration method for the installed capacity scale demand of pumped storage power stations in the system has emerged with the goal of controlling the utilization rate of new energy, which does not take into account the demand for power supply, and also lacks the demonstration of the demand for continuous power generation hours. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for analyzing the demand for pumped-storage installed capacity and continuous full-fire hours in response to the defects of the prior art. The method uses production simulation to calculate the hourly electricity profit and loss results throughout the year, and statistics the maximum power shortage and the maximum continuous electricity shortage throughout the year, with the goal of meeting the hourly electricity supply throughout the year. The pumped-storage installed capacity and the continuous full-fire hours are iteratively optimized to obtain the installed capacity and continuous full-fire hours of the pumped-storage power station that meet the power supply guarantee, give full play to the installed capacity benefits of the pumped-storage power station, replace conventional power sources such as coal-fired power, and at the same time, in addition to meeting the power supply guarantee, it can also improve the system regulation capability, promote the consumption of new energy power, and improve the green and low-carbon development level of the regional power grid.

[0005] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides a method for analyzing the demand for pumped storage installed capacity and continuous full-power hours, comprising:

[0006] S1. Without considering the pumped storage power station, based on the planned horizontal annual load and other power supply schemes, the annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation is performed to obtain the annual hourly power balance results;

[0007] S2. Statistical analysis of the maximum power shortage P for 8760 hours throughout the year nmax and the maximum continuous power shortage E nmax ;

[0008] S3. Calculate the installed capacity of the pumped storage power station S n and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station n ;

[0009] S4. Consider the installed capacity of pumped storage power station S n and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station n , perform the annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation again, obtain a new annual hourly power balance result, and determine whether there is a power shortage in the new annual hourly power balance result;

[0010] S5. If there is a power shortage, repeat steps S2 to S4 based on the new hourly power balance result throughout the year; if there is no power shortage, use the last calculated installed capacity of the pumped-storage power station and the continuous full-power hours of the pumped-storage power station as the installed capacity and continuous full-power hours of the pumped-storage power station required by the system.

[0011] Furthermore, in step S1, the hourly power balance results for the whole year include a data set P of power profit and loss results for 8760 hours throughout the year. n , Where n is the number of times the annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation is performed. If ΔP i <0, it means that there is a power shortage in the i-th hour and the power shortage value is |ΔP i |, if ΔP i >0, it means that there is sufficient electricity in the i-th hour.

[0012] Further, step S2 includes: traversing the power profit and loss result data set P n , extract the power profit and loss result dataset P n The maximum power shortage value is taken as the maximum power shortage P nmax .

[0013] Furthermore, in step S2, the annual maximum continuous power shortage E nmax The calculation method is:

[0014] Traverse the power profit and loss result data set P n , determine the power shortage time periods T1, T2, ...T m, calculate the total power shortage value ΔE1, ΔE2, ..., ΔE in each power shortage period m , the annual maximum continuous power shortage E nmax =MAX[ΔE1:ΔE m ].

[0015] Furthermore, in step S3, the installed capacity of the pumped storage power station S n =P nmax .

[0016] Furthermore, in step S3, the number of consecutive full-power hours of the pumped storage power station is h n =E nmax / S n .

[0017] Further, step S4 includes: increasing the installed capacity of the pumped storage power station S n and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station n Substitute it into the annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation to obtain the power profit and loss result data set P for 8760 hours in the whole year n+1 , judge P n+1 Is there a power shortage?

[0018] Further, step S5 includes: if P n+1 If there is a power shortage in the system, the maximum power shortage P is calculated. n+1max and the maximum continuous power shortage E n+1max , and calculate the installed capacity S of the pumped storage power station n+1 and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station n+1 :

[0019] S n+1 =S n +P n+1max

[0020] h n+1 =(h n ×S n +E n+1max ) / S n+1

[0021] Considering the installed capacity S of the pumped storage power station n+1 and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station n+1 , and perform the annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation again until there is no power shortage in the power profit and loss result data set.

[0022] The beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0023] 1. The present invention adopts the whole-year production simulation to calculate the load supply guarantee needs, which can avoid the deviation of various power utilization rates based on experience in the traditional control method of power balance, and the calculation result is more accurate.

[0024] 2. The present invention aims to meet the hourly power balance throughout the year and adopts the production simulation method for multiple iterative calculations. This can avoid using the initial calculation result as the system demand scale, which may lead to power shortage problems caused by changes in the location of other power sources such as hydropower in the system after the pumped storage scale changes, thereby more reliably ensuring power supply.

[0025] 3. The present invention also proposes the requirements for the installed capacity and continuous full-power hours of the system's pumped-storage power station, which can better guide the planning and construction of the pumped-storage power station. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0026] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0027] In order to make the technical problems, technical solutions and beneficial effects to be solved by the present application more clearly understood, the present application is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present application and are not used to limit the present application.

[0028] like Figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a method for analyzing the demand for pumped storage installed capacity and continuous full-power hours, including:

[0029] S1. Without considering the pumped storage power station, based on the planned horizontal annual load and other power supply schemes (other power supply schemes refer to the clear power supply boundaries, including the existing and confirmed additional thermal power, hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic and other power installed capacity and power generation characteristics), the annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation is performed to obtain the annual hourly power balance results, which include the annual 8760-hour power profit and loss result data set P n , Where n = 1, which is the number of times the annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculations are performed. If ΔP i <0, it means that there is a power shortage in the i-th hour and the power shortage value is |ΔP i |, if ΔP i >0, it means that there is sufficient electricity in the i-th hour.

[0030] S2. Statistical analysis of the maximum power shortage P for 8760 hours throughout the year nmax (i.e. maximum power shortage power) and maximum continuous power shortage E nmax (i.e., maximum continuous power shortage);

[0031] Maximum power shortage P nmax The calculation method is:

[0032] Traverse the power profit and loss result data set P n , extract the power profit and loss result dataset P n The maximum power shortage value is taken as the maximum power shortage P nmax .

[0033] Maximum continuous power shortage throughout the year E nmax The calculation method is:

[0034] Traverse the power profit and loss result data set P n , determine the power shortage time periods T1, T2, ...T m , calculate the total power shortage value ΔE1, ΔE2, ..., ΔE in each power shortage period m , the annual maximum continuous power shortage E nmax =MAX[ΔE1:ΔE m ].

[0035] The power shortage period indicates that there is power shortage for k consecutive hours, k≥1h, and the total power shortage value in the power shortage period is equal to the sum of the power shortage values ​​for the k consecutive hours.

[0036] S3, according to the maximum power shortage P nmax and the maximum continuous power shortage E nmax , calculate the installed capacity S of the pumped storage power station n and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station n , installed capacity of pumped storage power station S n =P nmax , continuous full-power hours of pumped storage power station n =E nmax / S n .

[0037] S4. Increase the installed capacity of the pumped storage power station to S n and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station n Substitute it into the annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation to obtain the power profit and loss result data set P for 8760 hours in the whole year n+1 , judge P n+1 Is there a power shortage in the

[0038] S5, if P n+1 If there is a power shortage in the system, the maximum power shortage P is calculated. n+1max and the maximum continuous power shortage E n+1max , and calculate the installed capacity S of the pumped storage power station n+1 and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power stationn+1 :

[0039] S n+1 =S n +P n+1max

[0040] h n+1 =(h n ×S n +E n+1max ) / S n+1

[0041] Considering the installed capacity S of the pumped storage power station n+1 and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station n+1 , and perform the annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation again until there is no power shortage in the power profit and loss result data set.

[0042] If the installed capacity of the pumped storage power station is S n+1 and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station n+1 Substitute the 8760 power balance calculation for the annual production simulation to obtain the power profit and loss result data set P n+1 If there is no power shortage, then S n+1 and h n+1 The installed capacity of the pumped-storage power station and the number of continuous full-power hours can be used as system requirements, and the system demand analysis is completed at this point.

[0043] The embodiments described above are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, rather than to limit them. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, a person skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments may still be modified, or some of the technical features may be replaced by equivalents. Such modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, and should all be included in the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing the demand for pumped storage installed capacity and continuous full-power hours, characterized in that: include: S1. Without considering the pumped storage power station, based on the planned horizontal annual load and other power supply schemes, the annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation is performed to obtain the annual hourly power balance results; S2. Statistical analysis of the maximum power shortage P for 8760 hours throughout the year nmax and the maximum continuous power shortage E nmax ; S3. Calculate the installed capacity of the pumped storage power station S n and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station n ; S4. Consider the installed capacity of pumped storage power station S n and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station n , perform the annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation again, obtain a new annual hourly power balance result, and determine whether there is a power shortage in the new annual hourly power balance result; S5. If there is a power shortage, repeat steps S2 to S4 based on the new hourly power balance result throughout the year; if there is no power shortage, use the last calculated installed capacity of the pumped-storage power station and the continuous full-power hours of the pumped-storage power station as the installed capacity and continuous full-power hours of the pumped-storage power station required by the system.

2. The method for analyzing the demand for pumped storage installed capacity and continuous full-power hours according to claim 1 is characterized by: In step S1, the hourly power balance results for the whole year include the power profit and loss result data set P for 8760 hours throughout the year. n , Where n is the number of times the annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation is performed. If ΔP i <0, it means that there is a power shortage in the i-th hour and the power shortage value is |ΔP i |, if ΔP i >0, it means that there is sufficient electricity in the i-th hour.

3. The method for analyzing the demand for pumped storage installed capacity and continuous full-power hours according to claim 2 is characterized in that: Step S2 includes: traversing the power profit and loss result data set P n , extract the power profit and loss result dataset P n The maximum power shortage value is taken as the maximum power shortage P nmax .

4. The method for analyzing the demand for pumped storage installed capacity and continuous full-power hours according to claim 3 is characterized by: In step S2, the annual maximum continuous power shortage E nmax The calculation method is: Traverse the power profit and loss result data set P n , determine the power shortage time periods T1, T2, ...T m , calculate the total power shortage value ΔE1, ΔE2, ..., ΔE in each power shortage period m , the annual maximum continuous power shortage E nmax =MAX[ΔE1:ΔE m ].

5. The method for analyzing the demand for pumped storage installed capacity and continuous full-power hours according to claim 4 is characterized in that: In step S3, the installed capacity of the pumped storage power station is S n =P nmax .

6. The method for analyzing the demand for pumped storage installed capacity and continuous full-power hours according to claim 5 is characterized by: In step S3, the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station is h n =E nmax / S n .

7. The method for analyzing the demand for pumped storage installed capacity and continuous full-power hours according to any one of claims 1 to 6, characterized in that: Step S4 includes: setting the installed capacity of the pumped storage power station S n and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station n Substitute it into the annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation to obtain the power profit and loss result data set P for 8760 hours in the whole year n+1 , judge P n+1 Is there a power shortage? 8. The method for analyzing the demand for pumped storage installed capacity and continuous full-power hours according to claim 7 is characterized by: Step S5 includes: if P n+1 If there is a power shortage in the system, the maximum power shortage P is calculated. n+1max and the maximum continuous power shortage E n+1max , and calculate the installed capacity S of the pumped storage power station n+1 and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station n+1 : S n+1 =S n +P n+1max h n+1 =(h n ×S n +E n+1max ) / S n+1 Considering the installed capacity S of the pumped storage power station n+1 and the number of continuous full-power hours of the pumped storage power station n+1 , and perform the annual production simulation 8760 power balance calculation again until there is no power shortage in the power profit and loss result data set.

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