Water conservancy project operation trend prediction method and system for hydroelectric power generation

Abstract

The invention discloses a hydraulic engineering operation trend prediction method and system for hydroelectric power generation, and relates to the technical field of hydroelectric power generation prediction. Performing classification processing according to the hydraulic engineering historical data to obtain hydraulic engineering operation data of different years; and performing analysis processing according to the hydraulic engineering operation data in different years. According to the method, historical data of hydroelectric power generation are analyzed to determine power generation data of each year, a group of reference data is set, the historical data of hydroelectric power generation of each year is retrieved according to the reference data to obtain corresponding power generation data, the abrasion loss of the hydraulic engineering of each year is determined according to the power generation data, and finally, the abrasion loss of the hydraulic engineering of each year is determined. The real-time related data of the hydraulic engineering and the abrasion loss of the hydraulic engineering are comprehensively analyzed and predicted, predicted power generation data are determined, energy regulation and control are carried out according to the predicted power generation data, the situation of insufficient energy or excessive energy is avoided, and orderliness of energy regulation and control is achieved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of water conservancy and power generation prediction, and in particular to a method and system for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project used for water conservancy and power generation. Background Art

[0002] Hydraulic engineering is a general term for various engineering projects built to control, utilize and protect surface and underground water resources and the environment. Water conservancy projects are an engineering field that involves the development, management and utilization of water resources, aiming to solve problems such as water supply, flood control, irrigation, and hydropower energy.

[0003] Existing water conservancy projects for hydropower generation do not predict the energy generated by hydropower generation, and are unable to regulate the energy generated by power generation in real time, resulting in excess or insufficient energy for hydropower generation when energy is urgently needed. When energy is in excess, energy waste may occur, and when energy is too insufficient, equipment damage may occur. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to solve the above technical problems, a method and system for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation is provided. The technical solution solves the problem that the existing water conservancy projects for hydropower generation proposed in the above background technology do not predict the energy generated by hydropower generation and cannot regulate the energy generated by power generation in real time, resulting in excess or insufficient energy for hydropower generation when energy is urgently needed. When energy is in excess, energy waste may occur, and when energy is too insufficient, equipment damage may occur.

[0005] In order to achieve the above purpose, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is: A method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation, comprising: Based on the database system, obtain historical data of water conservancy projects; Classify and process the historical data of water conservancy projects to obtain the operation data of water conservancy projects in different years; the operation data of water conservancy projects in different years include historical rainfall, historical water level data, historical water flow velocity and historical power generation data; Analyze and process the operation data of water conservancy projects in different years to obtain the wear and tear of water conservancy projects; Acquire real-time relevant data of water conservancy projects, including real-time rainfall, real-time water level data, and real-time water conservancy flow rate; Based on the real-time relevant data of the water conservancy project, the operation data of the water conservancy project in different years and the wear and tear of the water conservancy project, predictive analysis is carried out to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project.

[0006] Preferably, the classification processing according to the historical data of water conservancy projects to obtain the operation data of water conservancy projects in different years specifically includes the following steps: Performing data preprocessing based on historical data of water conservancy projects to obtain normal historical data of water conservancy projects, wherein the data preprocessing includes removing abnormal values ​​and filling missing values; Traverse the historical data of normal water conservancy projects based on the year to determine the earliest year information; Perform judgment processing based on the earliest year information and setting a first threshold; If the earliest year information is equal to the set first threshold, retain the historical data of the water conservancy project corresponding to the earliest year information, and set the earliest year information as the data starting point; If the earliest year information is less than the set first threshold, the historical data of the water conservancy project corresponding to the earliest year information is discarded, and the year after the earliest year information is set as the data starting point; Based on the data starting point and year, the historical data of normal water conservancy projects are classified to obtain the water conservancy project operation data in different years.

[0007] Preferably, the analyzing and processing of the water conservancy project operation data in different years to obtain the wear amount of the water conservancy project specifically includes the following steps: A rectangular coordinate system is established according to the year, historical rainfall, historical water level data, historical water flow velocity and historical power generation data, with the year being set as a parameter on the X-axis, and the historical rainfall, historical water level data, historical water flow velocity and historical power generation data being set as parameters on the Y-axis; According to the year and historical rainfall, the year and historical water level data, the year and historical water flow velocity, the year and historical power generation data, the historical rainfall curve, the historical water level curve, the historical water flow velocity curve and the historical power generation data curve are drawn respectively; The amount of wear and tear on the water conservancy project is determined by analyzing the historical rainfall curve, historical water level curve, historical water flow velocity curve and historical power generation data curve.

[0008] Preferably, the analysis based on the historical rainfall curve, the historical water level curve, the historical water flow velocity curve and the historical power generation data curve to determine the wear amount of the water conservancy project specifically includes the following steps: Set a set of reference data, and retrieve and process the historical rainfall curves, historical water level curves, and historical water flow velocity curves of different years based on the reference data to determine the time points corresponding to the reference data in different years, wherein the specific expression form of the reference data is (historical rainfall, historical water level, historical water flow velocity); Positioning the historical power generation data curve based on the time points corresponding to the reference data in different years, and determining multiple sets of historical power generation information sets, wherein the specific form of the historical power generation information sets is (year, time point, historical power generation data); Taking adjacent years as calculation references, multiple sets of historical power generation information are calculated and processed to obtain power generation offsets in different years; The amount of wear and tear on the water conservancy project is determined by calculation based on the power generation offset in different years.

[0009] Preferably, the calculation and processing based on the power generation offset in different years to determine the wear amount of the water conservancy project specifically includes the following steps: A rectangular coordinate system is established with the year and the power generation offset, the year is set as a parameter on the X axis, and the power generation offset is set as a parameter on the Y axis; Draw a power generation offset curve in a rectangular coordinate system according to the year and the power generation offset in different years; The wear amount of the water conservancy project is obtained by analyzing and calculating according to the power generation offset curve.

[0010] Preferably, the specific calculation formula for obtaining the wear amount of the water conservancy project is:

[0011] In the formula, The wear and tear of water conservancy projects; is the power generation offset; n is the number corresponding to the power generation offset; It is the compensation parameter of wear in water conservancy projects.

[0012] Preferably, the predictive analysis based on the real-time relevant data of the water conservancy project, the operation data of the water conservancy project in different years and the wear amount of the water conservancy project to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project specifically includes the following steps: Get the number of days the water conservancy project has been in operation this year; The wear and tear of the water conservancy project is corrected and calculated according to the number of days the water conservancy project has been in operation this year to obtain the corrected wear and tear of the water conservancy project; Based on the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project and the real-time relevant data of the water conservancy project, predictive analysis is performed to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project.

[0013] Preferably, the specific calculation formula for obtaining the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project is:

[0014] In the formula, Corrected wear for water conservancy projects; The compensation parameter for the wear and tear of the water conservancy project in this year; It is the number of days the water conservancy project has been in operation this year.

[0015] Preferably, the predictive analysis based on the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project and the real-time related data of the water conservancy project to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project specifically includes the following steps: Based on the real-time rainfall, real-time water level data, and real-time water conservancy flow rate, a search and matching process is performed in the water conservancy project operation data of the previous year to obtain the time point of the previous year; Retrieving the historical power generation data of the previous year based on the time point of the previous year to obtain the power generation data corresponding to the time point of the previous year; Calculate and process the power generation data corresponding to the time point of the previous year and the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project; Among them, the specific calculation model for obtaining the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project is:

[0016] In the formula, Forecast power generation data for water conservancy projects; The power generation data corresponding to the time point of the previous year; Corrected wear amount for water conservancy projects.

[0017] Furthermore, a water conservancy project operation trend prediction system for hydropower generation is proposed, which is used to implement the water conservancy project operation trend prediction method for hydropower generation as described above, including: A database system, wherein the database system is used to store historical data of water conservancy projects; A coordinate system construction module, wherein the coordinate system construction module is used to construct a rectangular coordinate system, draw a historical rainfall curve, a historical water level curve, a historical water flow velocity curve, a historical power generation data curve and a power generation offset curve; A data preprocessing module, which is used to preprocess the historical data of water conservancy projects to obtain normal historical data of water conservancy projects; A data analysis module, which is used to analyze historical data of normal water conservancy projects to determine the data starting point, and is used to analyze historical rainfall curves, historical water level curves, historical water flow velocity curves and historical power generation data curves to determine the amount of wear of the water conservancy project; A data calculation module, the data calculation module is used to calculate and process multiple sets of historical power generation information sets to obtain power generation offsets in different years, the data calculation module corrects and calculates the wear amount of the water conservancy project according to the number of days the water conservancy project has been in operation in the current year to obtain the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project, and the data calculation module calculates and processes the power generation data corresponding to the time point of the previous year and the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project; A control module is used to control data transmission and information interaction between various modules.

[0018] Compared with the prior art, the present invention provides a method and system for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation, which has the following beneficial effects: The present invention determines the power generation data of each year by analyzing the historical data of hydropower generation, sets a group of reference data, retrieves the historical data of hydropower generation of each year according to the reference data to obtain the corresponding power generation data, determines the amount of wear of the water conservancy project each year according to the power generation data, and finally, comprehensively analyzes and predicts the real-time relevant data of the water conservancy project and the amount of wear of the water conservancy project to determine the predicted power generation data, and regulates energy according to the predicted power generation data to avoid energy shortage or energy surplus and realize the orderliness of energy regulation. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0019] Figure 1 A schematic flow chart of steps S100-S500 in a method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation proposed by the present invention; Figure 2 A schematic flow chart of steps S201-S206 in a method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation proposed by the present invention; Figure 3 A schematic flow chart of steps S301-S303 in a method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation proposed by the present invention; Figure 4 A schematic flow chart of steps S3031-S3034 in a method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation proposed by the present invention; Figure 5 A schematic flow chart of steps S30341-S30343 in a method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation proposed by the present invention; Figure 6 A schematic flow chart of steps S501-S503 in a method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation proposed by the present invention; Figure 7A schematic flow chart of steps S5031-S5033 in a method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation proposed by the present invention; Figure 8 This is a structural block diagram of a water conservancy project operation trend prediction system for hydropower generation proposed by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0020] The following description is used to disclose the present invention so that those skilled in the art can implement the present invention. The preferred embodiments described below are only examples, and those skilled in the art may think of other obvious variations.

[0021] Reference Figure 1 As shown, a method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation includes: S100, based on the database system, obtain historical data of water conservancy projects; S200, performing classification processing on the historical data of water conservancy projects to obtain water conservancy project operation data of different years; the water conservancy project operation data of different years includes historical rainfall, historical water level data, historical water flow velocity and historical power generation data; S300, analyzing and processing the water conservancy project operation data in different years to obtain the wear amount of the water conservancy project; S400, obtaining real-time relevant data of a water conservancy project, wherein the real-time relevant data includes real-time rainfall, real-time water level data, and real-time water conservancy flow rate; S500, performing prediction analysis based on real-time relevant data of the water conservancy project, operation data of the water conservancy project in different years and wear of the water conservancy project, and obtaining predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project; It can be understood by those skilled in the art that when a water conservancy project generates electricity, it is related to rainfall, water level data and water flow velocity. When the rainfall is large, the water level will rise. In order to protect the dam body, the drain holes will be opened, so the water flow velocity will increase. When the water flow velocity increases, the energy for power generation of the water conservancy project will increase. Therefore, by analyzing and predicting the historical data of the water conservancy project, the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project can be obtained, and energy regulation can be carried out according to the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project to avoid energy shortages or energy surpluses, thereby achieving orderliness in water conservancy power generation regulation. It is worth noting that with the development of time and the erosion of water flow, the water conservancy project will wear to a certain extent, resulting in less power generation energy. Therefore, the wear amount of the water conservancy project is introduced as an auxiliary reference for the prediction of the power generation data, so that the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project is more accurate, and at the same time, the subsequent energy regulation is more accurate and orderly.

[0022] Reference Figure 2As shown in FIG. 1 , the classification processing is performed based on the historical data of water conservancy projects to obtain the operation data of water conservancy projects in different years, which specifically includes the following steps: S201, performing data preprocessing based on historical data of water conservancy projects to obtain normal historical data of water conservancy projects, wherein the data preprocessing includes removing abnormal values ​​and filling missing values; S202, traversing historical data of normal water conservancy projects based on years to determine the earliest year information; S203, performing judgment processing based on the earliest year information and setting a first threshold; S204, if the earliest year information is equal to the set first threshold, retain the historical data of the water conservancy project corresponding to the earliest year information, and set the earliest year information as the data starting point; S205: If the earliest year information is less than the set first threshold, discard the historical data of the water conservancy project corresponding to the earliest year information, and set the year after the earliest year information as the data starting point; S206, classifying the historical data of normal water conservancy projects based on the data starting point and year, and obtaining the water conservancy project operation data of different years; In this embodiment, when the water conservancy project is completed and put into use, it may be at the beginning of the year, in the middle of the year, or at the end of the year. When it appears at the end of the year, the historical data of the water conservancy project corresponding to the earliest year information may be relatively small and have little reference significance. Therefore, by judging the earliest year information, it is determined whether to discard the corresponding historical data of the water conservancy project.

[0023] Reference Figure 3 As shown, the analysis and processing of the water conservancy project operation data in different years to obtain the wear amount of the water conservancy project specifically includes the following steps: S301, establishing a rectangular coordinate system according to the year, historical rainfall, historical water level data, historical water flow velocity and historical power generation data, setting the year as a parameter to the X-axis, and setting the historical rainfall, historical water level data, historical water flow velocity and historical power generation data as parameters to the Y-axis respectively; S302, drawing a historical rainfall curve, a historical water level curve, a historical water flow velocity curve, and a historical power generation data curve respectively according to the year and historical rainfall, the year and historical water level data, the year and historical water flow velocity, and the year and historical power generation data; S303, analyzing the historical rainfall curve, the historical water level curve, the historical water flow velocity curve and the historical power generation data curve to determine the amount of wear and tear of the water conservancy project.

[0024] Reference Figure 4 As shown, according to the historical rainfall curve, historical water level curve, historical water flow velocity curve and historical power generation data curve, the wear amount of the water conservancy project is determined by analyzing the following steps: S3031. Set a set of reference data, and perform retrieval processing on historical rainfall curves, historical water level curves, and historical water flow velocity curves of different years based on the reference data to determine the time points corresponding to the reference data in different years, wherein the specific expression form of the reference data is (historical rainfall, historical water level, historical water flow velocity); S3032, positioning the historical power generation data curve based on the time points corresponding to the reference data in different years, and determining multiple sets of historical power generation information sets, wherein the specific form of the historical power generation information sets is (year, time point, historical power generation data); S3033, using adjacent years as calculation references, calculating and processing multiple sets of historical power generation information sets to obtain power generation offsets in different years; S3034, performing calculations based on the power generation offsets in different years to determine the wear amount of the water conservancy project; Data personnel in this field can understand that when it is necessary to determine the wear of a water conservancy project, it is necessary to control variables. Therefore, a set of parameter data is selected, and the historical data of the water conservancy project for each year is retrieved through the reference data to determine the historical rainfall, historical water level, and historical water flow rate that are the same as the reference data, and the corresponding time points are recorded. The power generation data is determined according to the time points, and the power generation data of adjacent years are used for calculation to determine the power generation offset. The power generation offset of adjacent years is calculated to preliminarily determine the wear of the water conservancy project.

[0025] Reference Figure 5 As shown, the calculation and processing based on the power generation offset in different years to determine the wear amount of the water conservancy project specifically includes the following steps: S30341. Establish a rectangular coordinate system based on the year and the power generation offset, set the year as a parameter to the X axis, and set the power generation offset as a parameter to the Y axis; S30342. Draw a power generation offset curve in a rectangular coordinate system according to the year and the power generation offsets of different years; S30343. Analyze and calculate according to the power generation offset curve to obtain the wear amount of the water conservancy project; Among them, the specific calculation formula for obtaining the wear amount of water conservancy projects is:

[0026] In the formula, The wear and tear of water conservancy projects; is the power generation offset; n is the number corresponding to the power generation offset; It is the compensation parameter of the wear of water conservancy project; In this embodiment, the wear of the hydraulic project may be caused by artificial damage in addition to water erosion and time erosion. Therefore, the compensation parameter is introduced here. , to compensate for the wear of water conservancy projects. Since water conservancy projects are subject to water erosion and time erosion every year, the material, thickness, etc. may change when they are worn out. Therefore, the compensation parameters for artificial damage will also be different.

[0027] Reference Figure 6 As shown, based on the real-time relevant data of the water conservancy project, the operation data of the water conservancy project in different years and the wear amount of the water conservancy project, the prediction analysis is carried out to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project, which specifically includes the following steps: S501. Obtain the number of days that the water conservancy project has been in operation this year; S502, performing correction calculation on the wear amount of the water conservancy project according to the number of days the water conservancy project has been in operation in this year, and obtaining the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project; S503, performing prediction analysis based on the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project and the real-time related data of the water conservancy project to obtain predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project; Among them, the specific calculation formula for obtaining the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project is:

[0028] In the formula, Corrected wear for water conservancy projects; The compensation parameter for the wear and tear of the water conservancy project in this year; The number of days the water conservancy project has been in operation this year; It is understood by those skilled in the art that when July comes, the power generation data for July needs to be predicted. In order to make the predicted power generation data more accurate, the wear amount is corrected by the proportion of the number of days that have been in operation to the total number of days in a year, and the compensation parameter of the wear amount of the water conservancy project in this year is introduced again. Compensation can be made to make the wear and tear of water conservancy projects more accurate and the predicted power generation data more accurate.

[0029] Reference Figure 7 As shown, based on the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project and the real-time related data of the water conservancy project, the prediction analysis is performed to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project, which specifically includes the following steps: S5031, based on the real-time rainfall, real-time water level data, and real-time water conservancy flow rate, search and match the water conservancy project operation data of the previous year in this year to obtain the time point of the previous year; S5032, searching the historical power generation data of the previous year based on the time point of the previous year to obtain the power generation data corresponding to the time point of the previous year; S5033, performing calculations based on the power generation data corresponding to the time point of the previous year and the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project to obtain predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project; Among them, the specific calculation model for obtaining the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project is:

[0030] In the formula, Forecast power generation data for water conservancy projects; The power generation data corresponding to the time point of the previous year; Corrected wear for water conservancy projects; Those skilled in the art will understand that when it is necessary to predict power generation for a water conservancy project with a certain water level, a certain rainfall and a certain flow rate, it is necessary to search the above data in the previous year to find the same water level data, rainfall data and water flow rate data, and then use the power generation data corresponding to the data and the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project to calculate and predict, so as to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project.

[0031] Reference Figure 8 As shown, a water conservancy project operation trend prediction system for hydropower generation is used to implement the water conservancy project operation trend prediction method for hydropower generation as described above, comprising: A database system, wherein the database system is used to store historical data of water conservancy projects; A coordinate system construction module, wherein the coordinate system construction module is used to construct a rectangular coordinate system, draw a historical rainfall curve, a historical water level curve, a historical water flow velocity curve, a historical power generation data curve and a power generation offset curve; A data preprocessing module, which is used to preprocess the historical data of water conservancy projects to obtain normal historical data of water conservancy projects; A data analysis module, which is used to analyze historical data of normal water conservancy projects to determine the data starting point, and is used to analyze historical rainfall curves, historical water level curves, historical water flow velocity curves and historical power generation data curves to determine the amount of wear of the water conservancy project; A data calculation module, the data calculation module is used to calculate and process multiple sets of historical power generation information sets to obtain power generation offsets in different years, the data calculation module corrects and calculates the wear amount of the water conservancy project according to the number of days the water conservancy project has been in operation in the current year to obtain the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project, and the data calculation module calculates and processes the power generation data corresponding to the time point of the previous year and the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project; A control module is used to control data transmission and information interaction between various modules.

[0032] The above shows and describes the basic principles, main features and advantages of the present invention. Those skilled in the art should understand that the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments. The above embodiments and descriptions only describe the principles of the present invention. The present invention may be subject to various changes and improvements without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. These changes and improvements fall within the scope of the present invention. The scope of protection claimed by the present invention is defined by the attached claims and their equivalents.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation, characterized in that: include: Based on the database system, obtain historical data of water conservancy projects; Classify and process the historical data of water conservancy projects to obtain the operation data of water conservancy projects in different years; the operation data of water conservancy projects in different years include historical rainfall, historical water level data, historical water flow velocity and historical power generation data; Analyze and process the operation data of water conservancy projects in different years to obtain the wear and tear of water conservancy projects; Acquire real-time relevant data of water conservancy projects, including real-time rainfall, real-time water level data, and real-time water conservancy flow rate; Based on the real-time relevant data of the water conservancy project, the operation data of the water conservancy project in different years and the wear and tear of the water conservancy project, predictive analysis is carried out to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project.

2. A method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation according to claim 1, characterized in that: The classification processing according to the historical data of water conservancy projects to obtain the operation data of water conservancy projects in different years specifically includes the following steps: Performing data preprocessing based on historical data of water conservancy projects to obtain normal historical data of water conservancy projects, wherein the data preprocessing includes removing abnormal values ​​and filling missing values; Traverse the historical data of normal water conservancy projects based on the year to determine the earliest year information; Perform judgment processing based on the earliest year information and setting a first threshold; If the earliest year information is equal to the set first threshold, retain the historical data of the water conservancy project corresponding to the earliest year information, and set the earliest year information as the data starting point; If the earliest year information is less than the set first threshold, the historical data of the water conservancy project corresponding to the earliest year information is discarded, and the year after the earliest year information is set as the data starting point; Based on the data starting point and year, the historical data of normal water conservancy projects are classified to obtain the water conservancy project operation data in different years.

3. A method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation according to claim 1, characterized in that: The analysis and processing of the water conservancy project operation data in different years to obtain the wear amount of the water conservancy project specifically includes the following steps: A rectangular coordinate system is established according to the year, historical rainfall, historical water level data, historical water flow velocity and historical power generation data, with the year being set as a parameter on the X-axis, and the historical rainfall, historical water level data, historical water flow velocity and historical power generation data being set as parameters on the Y-axis; According to the year and historical rainfall, the year and historical water level data, the year and historical water flow velocity, the year and historical power generation data, the historical rainfall curve, the historical water level curve, the historical water flow velocity curve and the historical power generation data curve are drawn respectively; The amount of wear and tear on the water conservancy project is determined by analyzing the historical rainfall curve, historical water level curve, historical water flow velocity curve and historical power generation data curve.

4. A method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation according to claim 3, characterized in that: The analysis based on the historical rainfall curve, the historical water level curve, the historical water flow velocity curve and the historical power generation data curve to determine the wear amount of the water conservancy project specifically includes the following steps: Set a set of reference data, and retrieve and process the historical rainfall curves, historical water level curves, and historical water flow velocity curves of different years based on the reference data to determine the time points corresponding to the reference data in different years, wherein the specific expression form of the reference data is (historical rainfall, historical water level, historical water flow velocity); Positioning the historical power generation data curve based on the time points corresponding to the reference data in different years, and determining multiple sets of historical power generation information sets, wherein the specific form of the historical power generation information sets is (year, time point, historical power generation data); Taking adjacent years as calculation references, multiple sets of historical power generation information are calculated and processed to obtain power generation offsets in different years; The amount of wear and tear on the water conservancy project is determined by calculation based on the power generation offset in different years.

5. A method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation according to claim 4, characterized in that: The calculation and processing based on the power generation offset in different years to determine the wear amount of the water conservancy project specifically includes the following steps: A rectangular coordinate system is established with the year and the power generation offset, the year is set as a parameter on the X axis, and the power generation offset is set as a parameter on the Y axis; Draw a power generation offset curve in a rectangular coordinate system according to the year and the power generation offset in different years; The wear amount of the water conservancy project is obtained by analyzing and calculating according to the power generation offset curve.

6. A method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation according to claim 1, characterized in that: The specific calculation formula for obtaining the wear amount of the water conservancy project is: In the formula, The wear and tear of water conservancy projects; is the power generation offset; n is the number corresponding to the power generation offset; It is the compensation parameter for the wear of water conservancy projects.

7. A method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method of performing prediction analysis based on the real-time relevant data of the water conservancy project, the operation data of the water conservancy project in different years and the wear amount of the water conservancy project to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project specifically includes the following steps: Get the number of days the water conservancy project has been in operation this year; The wear and tear of the water conservancy project is corrected and calculated according to the number of days the water conservancy project has been in operation this year to obtain the corrected wear and tear of the water conservancy project; Based on the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project and the real-time relevant data of the water conservancy project, predictive analysis is performed to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project.

8. A method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation according to claim 7, characterized in that: The specific calculation formula for obtaining the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project is: In the formula, Corrected wear for water conservancy projects; The compensation parameter for the wear and tear of the water conservancy project in this year; It is the number of days the water conservancy project has been in operation this year.

9. A method for predicting the operation trend of a water conservancy project for hydropower generation according to claim 7, characterized in that: The method of performing prediction analysis based on the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project and the real-time related data of the water conservancy project to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project specifically includes the following steps: Based on the real-time rainfall, real-time water level data, and real-time water conservancy flow rate, a search and matching process is performed in the water conservancy project operation data of the previous year to obtain the time point of the previous year; Retrieving the historical power generation data of the previous year based on the time point of the previous year to obtain the power generation data corresponding to the time point of the previous year; Calculate and process the power generation data corresponding to the time point of the previous year and the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project; Among them, the specific calculation model for obtaining the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project is: In the formula, Forecast power generation data for water conservancy projects; The power generation data corresponding to the time point of the previous year; Corrected wear amount for water conservancy projects.

10. A water conservancy project operation trend prediction system for hydropower generation, used to implement a water conservancy project operation trend prediction method for hydropower generation as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 9, characterized in that: include: A database system, wherein the database system is used to store historical data of water conservancy projects; A coordinate system construction module, wherein the coordinate system construction module is used to construct a rectangular coordinate system, draw a historical rainfall curve, a historical water level curve, a historical water flow velocity curve, a historical power generation data curve and a power generation offset curve; A data preprocessing module, which is used to preprocess the historical data of water conservancy projects to obtain normal historical data of water conservancy projects; A data analysis module, which is used to analyze historical data of normal water conservancy projects to determine the data starting point, and is used to analyze historical rainfall curves, historical water level curves, historical water flow velocity curves and historical power generation data curves to determine the amount of wear of the water conservancy project; A data calculation module, the data calculation module is used to calculate and process multiple sets of historical power generation information sets to obtain power generation offsets in different years, the data calculation module corrects and calculates the wear amount of the water conservancy project according to the number of days the water conservancy project has been in operation in the current year to obtain the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project, and the data calculation module calculates and processes the power generation data corresponding to the time point of the previous year and the corrected wear amount of the water conservancy project to obtain the predicted power generation data of the water conservancy project; A control module is used to control data transmission and information interaction between various modules.

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