Reservoir temporary submerged area risk assessment method based on scheduling simulation

Abstract

The invention discloses a reservoir temporary inundation area risk assessment method based on scheduling simulation, and relates to the technical field of hydraulic engineering assessment, and the method comprises the following steps: 1, data collection and environment modeling; step 2, calculating the hydrological dynamics and risk assessment of the reservoir; step 3, loss calculation; and step 4, risk assessment of the temporary submerged area. According to the reservoir temporary inundation area risk assessment method based on scheduling simulation, through supportability and scientificity, safety management of the inundation area is optimized through risk grading and control measures, and the emergency capacity of a reservoir under high-water-level scheduling is enhanced.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of water conservancy project assessment, and in particular to a method for assessing the risk of temporary flooding areas of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation. Background Art

[0002] The temporary flooding area of ​​a reservoir plays an important buffering role during high water level operation and flood discharge. However, under extreme climatic conditions (such as continuous heavy rain or floods), the inflow of the reservoir may exceed the design standard, and the safety of the temporary flooding area, flood discharge capacity and potential impact on the surrounding environment require scientific risk assessment.

[0003] The existing reservoir management technologies have the following defects:

[0004] Single technical means and low level of informatization: Many reservoir management still relies on traditional means and lacks the support of modern information technology, resulting in low management efficiency and difficulty in timely acquisition and processing of reservoir operation data. There is a lack of dynamic and quantitative analysis methods for flooded areas under high water level scheduling.

[0005] Aging monitoring equipment and incomplete data: The monitoring equipment of some reservoirs has aged, resulting in inaccurate or lost data, which cannot fully reflect the real-time situation of the reservoir, such as water level, flow, dam structure, etc. This makes it difficult for management departments to make scientific decisions.

[0006] Insufficient emergency response capabilities: Many reservoirs lack scientific and complete emergency response plans. In emergencies (such as floods, earthquakes, etc.), response measures are not timely and effective, which can easily cause greater losses.

[0007] Imperfect management system: There are imperfections in the management mechanism, such as unclear responsibilities and lack of effective coordination mechanism, which makes it difficult for various departments to cooperate closely in reservoir management and leads to low efficiency.

[0008] Weak data analysis and forecasting capabilities: Due to the lack of sufficient historical data and modern data analysis tools, reservoir management has difficulty making accurate forecasts when conducting water scheduling and safety assessments, and is unable to effectively respond to future changes.

[0009] Insufficient environmental and ecological protection: Traditional reservoir management focuses more on water scheduling and safety, but does not adequately consider the impact on the surrounding environment and ecosystem, which can easily lead to problems such as ecological imbalance and water quality deterioration.

[0010] The present invention provides a risk assessment method based on high water level scheduling simulation, combined with accurate loss estimation of personnel, cultivated land and facilities and equipment, to provide support for safety management and emergency decision-making in flooded areas. Summary of the invention

[0011] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention is implemented through the following technical solutions: A method for risk assessment of temporary flooding areas of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation, comprising the following steps:

[0012] Step 1: Data collection and environment modeling;

[0013] Step 2: Calculate reservoir hydrological dynamics and risk assessment;

[0014] Step 3: Loss calculation;

[0015] Step 4: Risk assessment of temporary flooded areas.

[0016] Preferably, the data collection and environmental modeling specifically include basic data collection, establishing terrain and reservoir models, and risk source identification;

[0017] The basic data collection specifically includes collecting meteorological data, hydrological data and geological data of the basin where the reservoir is located, as well as historical flood records;

[0018] The terrain and reservoir model specifically constructs a three-dimensional terrain model of the flooded area through a digital elevation model, wherein parameters include terrain elevation and surface roughness, forming a simulation scene for subsequent flood simulation and regional risk analysis;

[0019] The risk source identification specifically involves using a geographic information system to analyze key risk sources within the flooded area, including population distribution, infrastructure, and farmland, to provide support for subsequent analysis.

[0020] Preferably, the reservoir hydrological dynamics and risk assessment specifically consists of reservoir water balance calculation and flood diffusion simulation;

[0021] The specific calculation equation for the reservoir water balance calculation is:

[0022]

[0023] Among them, Q in (t) is the inflow flow, which indicates the time variation of the inflow flow; Q out (t) Specifically, the outflow flow is controlled by the reservoir dispatching plan;

[0024] The specific calculation equation for flood diffusion simulation is:

[0025]

[0026] Among them, h is the water depth, u and v represent the velocity components of the water flow in the x and y directions, Indicates changes in water depth;

[0027] The momentum equation in the x direction is specifically:

[0028]

[0029] The momentum equation in the y direction is specifically:

[0030]

[0031] Among them, hu and hv represent the momentum density along the y and y directions respectively, g represents the gravitational acceleration, H represents the water surface height, τ represents the shear stress, and ρ represents the fluid density.

[0032] Preferably, the loss calculation is specifically the potential comprehensive loss L 总 , the specific calculation equation of the potential comprehensive loss is:

[0033] L 总 =w p ·L p +w c ·L c +w f ·L f ;

[0034] Among them, w p 、w c 、w f are the weights of the loss of personnel, cultivated land and facilities and equipment respectively; L p , L c , L f They are loss of personnel, loss of cultivated land and loss of facilities and equipment;

[0035] The specific calculation equation for the personnel loss is:

[0036]

[0037] Among them, D i A represents the population density in base station coverage area i after deduplication. i,flooded represents the flooded area within the coverage of base station i after deduplication;

[0038] The specific calculation equation for the cultivated land loss is:

[0039]

[0040] Among them, A j is the flooded area of ​​the jth crop, Y j is the yield per unit area of ​​the jth crop, P j is the market price of the jth crop, D(d j ,t j ) is the combined water depth d j and flooding time t j The calculated loss rate;

[0041] The specific calculation equation for the facility and equipment loss is:

[0042]

[0043] Among them, N k is the number of facilities of type k, V k is the unit value of the kth type of facility, D k is the loss rate of the kth type of facility.

[0044] Preferably, the population density in the base station coverage area i is specifically estimated by using the adjusted device density D in the overlapping area, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0045]

[0046] Where N represents the total number of device connections, n represents the number of base stations, and p is the probability of repeated connections;

[0047] According to the water depth data d and submergence time t in the remote sensing image, the loss function D(d,t) is defined, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0048]

[0049] Among them, α and β are weight parameters, which are set according to crop type and growth period, d crit and t crit The water depth and time thresholds for complete failure of the crop.

[0050] Preferably, the temporary flooding area risk assessment is specifically to determine the risk level of each area through a comprehensive analysis of the water depth, flow velocity and potential losses of the flooding area, so as to provide a decision-making basis for scientific scheduling and emergency management;

[0051] The comprehensive formula for risk assessment considers the multi-dimensional weighted impact of water depth, flow velocity and potential losses, and quantifies the risk of each sub-area into a comprehensive risk value R based on fuzzy mathematics and nonlinear optimization models. 综合 ;

[0052] Among them, the risk levels are specifically divided into high-risk areas, medium-risk areas and low-risk areas;

[0053] The specific calculation requirements for the high-risk areas are:

[0054]

[0055] Among them, μ H Indicates the critical value of high risk level; β H a threshold indicating a high risk rate of change;

[0056] The specific calculation requirements for the medium-risk area are:

[0057] μ M <R 综合 <μ H ;

[0058] Among them, μ M Indicates the critical value of medium risk level;

[0059] The specific calculation requirements for the low-risk area are:

[0060] R 综合 <μ M .

[0061] The risk level is not only divided according to the comprehensive risk value, but also takes into account the risk change rate to ensure risk sensitivity in a highly dynamic environment.

[0062] Preferably, the comprehensive risk calculation formula is specifically:

[0063]

[0064] Among them, f(R h ,R v ,R L ) is a nonlinear function that reflects the cumulative effect of risk; λ is a dynamic adjustment coefficient that is adjusted based on real-time monitoring data and historical trends; w h , w v , w L The weights of depth, velocity and potential loss, respectively, satisfy w h +w v +w L =1; R h ,R v ,R L They are normalized risk indicators expressed as water depth, flow velocity, and potential loss, respectively.

[0065] Preferably, the water depth risk index R h The specific calculation method is:

[0066]

[0067] Where h represents the water depth distribution function in the region; A represents the flooded area; T h represents the critical threshold of water depth;

[0068] The flow rate risk index R v The specific calculation method is:

[0069]

[0070] Where u and v represent the components of the flow velocity in the x and y directions respectively, Th represents the critical threshold of flow rate;

[0071] The potential loss risk index R L The specific calculation method is:

[0072]

[0073] Among them, L 区域 =w p ·L p +w c ·L c +w f ·L f , L p Indicates loss of personnel, L c Indicates the loss of cultivated land; L f Indicates the loss of facilities and equipment, L 最大 Indicates the maximum loss value of all regions.

[0074] Preferably, the dynamic adjustment coefficient λ takes into account the time-varying characteristics of water depth and flow velocity, and is specifically calculated as follows:

[0075]

[0076] Among them, α represents the dynamic weight coefficient, which is used to amplify the impact of risk change trends; are the time rates of change of water depth, flow velocity and potential loss respectively.

[0077] The present invention provides a method for risk assessment of temporary flooding areas of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation. It has the following beneficial effects:

[0078] 1. This reservoir temporary inundation area risk assessment method based on scheduling simulation can provide a more comprehensive, dynamic and scientific risk assessment through high water level scheduling and flood discharge scenario simulation, combined with accurate loss estimation methods for personnel, cultivated land and facilities and equipment.

[0079] 2. The risk assessment method for temporary flooding areas of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation is comprehensive and accurate: it uses improved models of loss of personnel, cultivated land and facilities and equipment to accurately analyze the potential losses in reservoir flooding areas.

[0080] 3. The risk assessment method for temporary flooding areas of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation achieves dynamic monitoring and real-time updating: combining real-time hydrological data and Skynet monitoring to improve the timeliness of assessment.

[0081] 4. The risk assessment method for temporary flooding areas of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation achieves security and scientificity: through risk classification and control measures, it optimizes the safety management of flooded areas and enhances the emergency response capacity under high water level scheduling of reservoirs. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0082] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with specific embodiments. The embodiments of the present invention are provided for the purpose of illustration and description, and are not intended to be exhaustive or to limit the present invention to the disclosed forms. Many modifications and variations will be apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art. The embodiments are selected and described to better illustrate the principles and practical applications of the present invention, and to enable those of ordinary skill in the art to understand the present invention and thereby design various embodiments with various modifications suitable for specific uses.

[0083] In the first embodiment, the present invention provides a technical solution: a method for risk assessment of temporary flooding areas of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation, comprising the following steps:

[0084] Step 1: Data collection and environment modeling;

[0085] Data collection and environmental modeling specifically include basic data collection, building terrain and reservoir models, and identifying risk sources;

[0086] The basic data collection specifically includes collecting meteorological data, hydrological data and geological data of the basin where the reservoir is located, as well as historical flood records;

[0087] The terrain and reservoir model specifically constructs a three-dimensional terrain model of the flooded area through a digital elevation model, wherein parameters include terrain elevation and surface roughness, forming a simulation scene for subsequent flood simulation and regional risk analysis;

[0088] The risk source identification is specifically to use geographic information system to analyze key risk sources in the flooded area, including population distribution, infrastructure, and farmland, to provide support for subsequent analysis;

[0089] Step 2: Calculate reservoir hydrological dynamics and risk assessment;

[0090] Reservoir hydrological dynamics and risk assessment specifically consists of reservoir water balance calculation and flood spread simulation;

[0091] The specific calculation equation for the reservoir water balance calculation is:

[0092]

[0093] Among them, Q in (t) is the inflow flow, which indicates the time variation of the inflow flow; Q out (t) Specifically, the outflow flow is controlled by the reservoir dispatching plan;

[0094] The specific calculation equation for flood diffusion simulation is:

[0095]

[0096] Among them, h is the water depth, u and v represent the velocity components of the water flow in the x and y directions, Indicates changes in water depth;

[0097] The momentum equation in the x direction is specifically:

[0098]

[0099] The momentum equation in the y direction is specifically:

[0100]

[0101] Among them, hu and hv represent the momentum density along the and y directions respectively, g represents the gravitational acceleration, H represents the water surface height, τ represents the shear stress, and ρ represents the fluid density;

[0102] Step 3: Loss calculation;

[0103] Step 4: Risk assessment of temporary flooded areas.

[0104] The second embodiment is based on the first embodiment.

[0105] The loss calculation is specifically the potential comprehensive loss L 总 , the specific calculation equation of the potential comprehensive loss is:

[0106] L 总 =w p ·L p +w c ·L c +w f ·L f ;

[0107] Among them, w p 、w c 、w f are the weights of the loss of personnel, cultivated land and facilities and equipment respectively; L p , L c , L f They are loss of personnel, loss of cultivated land and loss of facilities and equipment;

[0108] The specific calculation equation for the personnel loss is:

[0109]

[0110] Among them, D i A represents the population density in base station coverage area i after deduplication. i,flooded represents the flooded area within the coverage of base station i after deduplication;

[0111] The specific calculation equation for the cultivated land loss is:

[0112]

[0113] Among them, A j is the flooded area of ​​the jth crop, Y j is the yield per unit area of ​​the jth crop, P j is the market price of the jth crop, D(d j ,t j ) is the combined water depth d j and flooding time t j The calculated loss rate;

[0114] The specific calculation equation for the facility and equipment loss is:

[0115]

[0116] Among them, N k is the number of facilities of type k, V k is the unit value of the kth type of facility, D k is the loss rate of the kth type of facility.

[0117] The population density in the base station coverage area i is specifically estimated by using the adjusted device density D in the overlapping area, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0118]

[0119] Where N represents the total number of device connections, n represents the number of base stations, and p is the probability of repeated connections;

[0120] According to the water depth data d and submergence time t in the remote sensing image, the loss function D(d,t) is defined, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0121]

[0122] Among them, α and β are weight parameters, which are set according to crop type and growth period, d crit and t crit The water depth and time thresholds for complete failure of the crop.

[0123] The third embodiment is based on the first and second embodiments.

[0124] The risk assessment of temporary flooded areas is to determine the risk level of each area through a comprehensive analysis of the water depth, flow velocity and potential losses in the flooded areas, so as to provide a decision-making basis for scientific scheduling and emergency management;

[0125] The comprehensive formula for risk assessment considers the multi-dimensional weighted impact of water depth, flow velocity and potential losses, and quantifies the risk of each sub-area into a comprehensive risk value R based on fuzzy mathematics and nonlinear optimization models. 综合 ;

[0126] Among them, the risk levels are specifically divided into high-risk areas, medium-risk areas and low-risk areas;

[0127] The specific calculation requirements for the high-risk areas are:

[0128] R 综合 >μ H ,and

[0129] Among them, μ H Indicates the critical value of high risk level; β H a threshold indicating a high risk rate of change;

[0130] The specific calculation requirements for the medium-risk area are:

[0131] μ M <R 综合 <μ H ;

[0132] Among them, μ M Indicates the critical value of medium risk level;

[0133] The specific calculation requirements for the low-risk area are:

[0134] R 综合 <μ M .

[0135] The risk level is not only divided according to the comprehensive risk value, but also takes into account the risk change rate to ensure risk sensitivity in a highly dynamic environment.

[0136] The comprehensive risk calculation formula is specifically:

[0137]

[0138] Among them, f(R h ,R v ,R L ) is a nonlinear function that reflects the cumulative effect of risk; λ is a dynamic adjustment coefficient that is adjusted based on real-time monitoring data and historical trends; w h , w v , w L The weights of depth, velocity and potential loss, respectively, satisfy w h +w v +w L =1; R h ,R v ,R LThey are normalized risk indicators expressed as water depth, flow velocity, and potential loss, respectively.

[0139] The water depth risk index R h The specific calculation method is:

[0140]

[0141] Where h represents the water depth distribution function in the region; A represents the flooded area; T h represents the critical threshold of water depth;

[0142] The flow rate risk index R v The specific calculation method is:

[0143]

[0144] Where u and v represent the components of the flow velocity in the x and y directions respectively, T h represents the critical threshold of flow rate;

[0145] The potential loss risk index R L The specific calculation method is:

[0146]

[0147] Among them, L 区域 =w p ·L p +w c ·L c +w f ·L f , L p Indicates loss of personnel, L c Indicates the loss of cultivated land; L f Indicates the loss of facilities and equipment, L 最大 Indicates the maximum loss value of all regions.

[0148] The dynamic adjustment coefficient λ takes into account the time-varying characteristics of water depth and flow velocity, and is specifically calculated as follows:

[0149]

[0150] Among them, α represents the dynamic weight coefficient, which is used to amplify the impact of risk change trends; are the time rates of change of water depth, flow velocity and potential loss respectively.

[0151] Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field and related fields without creative work should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention. The structures, devices and operating methods not specifically described and explained in the present invention are implemented according to the conventional means in the field unless otherwise specified and limited.

Claims

1. A reservoir temporary flooding area risk assessment method based on scheduling simulation, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: Data collection and environment modeling; Step 2: Calculate reservoir hydrological dynamics and risk assessment; Step 3: Loss calculation; Step 4: Risk assessment of temporary flooded areas.

2. The method for risk assessment of temporary flooding areas of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation according to claim 1 is characterized by: The data collection and environmental modeling specifically include basic data collection, establishing terrain and reservoir models, and identifying risk sources; The basic data collection specifically includes collecting meteorological data, hydrological data and geological data of the basin where the reservoir is located, as well as historical flood records; The terrain and reservoir model specifically constructs a three-dimensional terrain model of the flooded area through a digital elevation model, wherein parameters include terrain elevation and surface roughness; The risk source identification specifically involves using a geographic information system to analyze key risk sources within the flooded area, including population distribution, infrastructure, and farmland.

3. A reservoir temporary flooding area risk assessment method based on scheduling simulation according to claim 2, characterized in that: The reservoir hydrological dynamics and risk assessment specifically consists of reservoir water balance calculation and flood diffusion simulation; The specific calculation equation for the reservoir water balance calculation is: Among them, Q in (t) is the inflow flow, which indicates the time variation of the inflow flow; Q out (t) Specifically, the outflow flow is controlled by the reservoir dispatching plan; The specific calculation equation for flood diffusion simulation is: Among them, h is the water depth, u and v represent the velocity components of the water flow in the x and y directions, Indicates changes in water depth; The momentum equation in the x direction is specifically: The momentum equation in the y direction is specifically: Among them, hu and hv represent the momentum density along the y and y directions respectively, g represents the gravitational acceleration, H represents the water surface height, τ represents the shear stress, and ρ represents the fluid density.

4. A reservoir temporary flooding area risk assessment method based on scheduling simulation according to claim 3, characterized in that: The loss calculation is specifically the potential comprehensive loss L 总 , the specific calculation equation of the potential comprehensive loss is: L 总 =w p ·L p +w c ·L c +w f ·L f ; Among them, w p 、w c 、w f are the weights of the loss of personnel, cultivated land and facilities and equipment respectively; L p , L c , L f They are loss of personnel, loss of cultivated land and loss of facilities and equipment; The specific calculation equation for the personnel loss is: Among them, D i A represents the population density in base station coverage area i after deduplication. i,flooded represents the flooded area within the coverage of base station i after deduplication; The specific calculation equation for the cultivated land loss is: Among them, A j is the flooded area of ​​the jth crop, Y j is the yield per unit area of ​​the jth crop, P j is the market price of the jth crop, D(d j ,t j ) is the combined water depth d j and flooding time t j The calculated loss rate; The specific calculation equation for the facility and equipment loss is: Among them, N k is the number of facilities of type k, V k is the unit value of the kth type of facility, D k is the loss rate of the kth type of facility.

5. The method for risk assessment of temporary flooding area of ​​a reservoir based on scheduling simulation according to claim 4 is characterized by: The population density in the base station coverage area i is specifically estimated by using the adjusted device density D in the overlapping area, and the calculation formula is as follows: Where N represents the total number of device connections, n represents the number of base stations, and p is the probability of repeated connections; According to the water depth data d and submergence time t in the remote sensing image, the loss function D(d,t) is defined, and the calculation formula is as follows: Among them, α and β are weight parameters, which are set according to crop type and growth period, d crit and t crit The water depth and time thresholds for complete failure of the crop.

6. A reservoir temporary flooding area risk assessment method based on scheduling simulation according to claim 5, characterized in that: The temporary flooding area risk assessment is specifically to determine the risk level of each area through a comprehensive analysis of the water depth, flow rate and potential losses in the flooding area, so as to provide a decision-making basis for scientific scheduling and emergency management; Among them, the risk levels are specifically divided into high-risk areas, medium-risk areas and low-risk areas; The specific calculation requirements for the high-risk areas are: R 综合 >μ H ,and Among them, μ H Indicates the critical value of high risk level; β H a threshold indicating a high risk rate of change; The specific calculation requirements for the medium-risk area are: m M <R 综合 <m H ; Among them, μ M The threshold value indicates the medium risk level; The specific calculation requirements for the low-risk area are: R 综合 <μ M 。 7. A reservoir temporary flooding area risk assessment method based on scheduling simulation according to claim 6, characterized in that: The comprehensive risk calculation formula is specifically: Among them, f(R h ,R v ,R L ) is a nonlinear function, λ is a dynamic adjustment coefficient, w h , w v , w L The weights of depth, velocity and potential loss, respectively, satisfy w h +w v +w L =1; R h ,R v ,R L They are normalized risk indicators expressed as water depth, flow velocity, and potential loss, respectively.

8. The method for risk assessment of temporary flooding area of ​​a reservoir based on scheduling simulation according to claim 7 is characterized by: The water depth risk index R h The specific calculation method is: Where h represents the water depth distribution function in the region; A represents the flooded area; T h represents the critical threshold of water depth; The flow rate risk index R v The specific calculation method is: Where u and v represent the components of the flow velocity in the x and y directions respectively, T h represents the critical threshold of flow rate; The potential loss risk index R L The specific calculation method is: Among them, L 区域 =w p ·L p +w c ·L c +w f ·L f , L p Indicates loss of personnel, L c Indicates the loss of cultivated land; L f Indicates the loss of facilities and equipment, L 最大 Indicates the maximum loss value of all regions.

9. The method for risk assessment of temporary flooding area of ​​a reservoir based on scheduling simulation according to claim 1 is characterized by: The dynamic adjustment coefficient λ is specifically calculated as follows: Among them, α represents the dynamic weight coefficient, are the time rates of change of water depth, flow velocity and potential loss respectively.

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