Airport scene operation risk comprehensive evaluation method based on probability measurement

Abstract

The invention discloses an airport scene operation risk comprehensive evaluation method based on probability measurement, and relates to the technical field of airport scene operation risk evaluation. According to the airport scene operation risk comprehensive evaluation method based on probability measurement, air traffic monitoring data are analyzed through a Markov model, flight risk factors influencing air traffic safety are identified, the occurrence probability of the flight risk factors is quantified through probability measurement, and an air traffic risk index is evaluated; the method comprises the following steps: analyzing ground traffic data through probability measurement, evaluating a ground traffic risk index, evaluating an airport safety equipment fault risk through fault tree analysis, obtaining a safety equipment fault risk index, carrying out weighted synthesis on each risk index by using an analytic hierarchy process, and obtaining an airport scene operation comprehensive risk index. According to the method, the airport operation safety risk can be scientifically and systematically evaluated, and data support is provided for airport safety management and emergency decision.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of airport surface operation risk assessment, and in particular to an airport surface operation risk comprehensive assessment method based on probability measurement. Background Art

[0002] With the continuous development of the global aviation industry, air transport volume has increased year by year, and the operational pressure and safety management difficulty of airports have also increased accordingly. Airport surface operations, especially at busy international airports, involve multiple complex links, including flight scheduling, ground transportation, airspace management, etc. Negligence or mistakes in any link may lead to safety accidents, which in turn affect flight punctuality, passenger safety and the overall operational efficiency of the airport. In order to ensure the safety, smoothness and efficiency of airport surface operations, it is particularly important to implement comprehensive and scientific risk management and assessment. The risk assessment method based on probability measurement can provide airport managers with real-time and accurate risk analysis, help predict potential risks and dangers, and then take targeted prevention and control measures to reduce the probability of accidents and improve the safety management level of the airport.

[0003] At present, the risk assessment methods for airport surface operations mostly rely on traditional empirical judgment or qualitative analysis, lacking systematic and quantitative risk assessment methods. For example, some methods classify risk levels through risk matrices based on expert evaluation and historical data. Although this method can provide certain guidance, it is often difficult to fully consider the complex relationship between multiple risk factors and their mutual influence, resulting in inaccurate or overly simplified assessment results. In addition, existing assessment models often ignore the effective use of probability measurement and statistical analysis, and are unable to quantify the probability of risk occurrence and the possible losses it may bring, making it difficult to provide airport managers with more predictive and decision-making support information. Due to the limitations of these methods, airport risk management often seems powerless when dealing with complex operating scenes, and it is difficult to achieve efficient safety assurance. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention provides a comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risks based on probability measurement, which solves the problems of the above-mentioned background technology.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention is implemented through the following technical solutions: a comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risks based on probability measurement, comprising the following steps: S1. Acquire air traffic monitoring data, construct an air traffic risk assessment model through a Markov model, identify flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety, quantitatively analyze the probability of occurrence of flight risk factors through probability measurement, and evaluate the comprehensive air traffic risk index; S2. Acquire airport ground traffic data, quantitatively analyze the risk factors in ground traffic operation through probability measurement, and evaluate the comprehensive ground traffic risk index; S3. Acquire airport safety equipment data, construct a safety equipment failure risk assessment model through fault tree analysis, analyze the degree of influence of airport safety equipment failure on airport surface operation through probability measurement, and evaluate the safety equipment failure risk index; S4. Analyze the comprehensive air traffic data through hierarchical analysis The comprehensive risk index of air traffic, the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and the risk index of safety equipment failure are comprehensively evaluated to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation, and the risk of airport surface operation is comprehensively evaluated based on the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation; the comprehensive risk index of air traffic is used to measure the safety risks in air traffic operation, and evaluate the collision risks between aircraft, airspace congestion and flight scheduling safety; the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic is used to measure the safety risks of airport ground traffic, and evaluate the risks of ground traffic flow, vehicle scheduling, runway use and ground collision; the safety equipment failure risk index is used to measure the risk of airport safety equipment failure, and evaluate the impact of failure on the safety of airport surface operation; the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation is used to measure the safety risks of the overall operation of the airport, and comprehensively evaluate the risks of air traffic, ground traffic and equipment failure.

[0006] Furthermore, the specific process of obtaining air traffic monitoring data and constructing an air traffic risk assessment model through Markov is as follows: the air traffic monitoring data includes aircraft position, speed, altitude, heading, flight status, airspace information, and meteorological conditions; defining the flight status and constructing a state transfer matrix; calculating the state transition probability through air traffic monitoring historical data, constructing a Markov chain model, and identifying flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety.

[0007] Furthermore, the probability of occurrence of flight risk factors is quantitatively analyzed through probability measurement. The specific process of evaluating the comprehensive risk index of air traffic is as follows: according to the state transition probability of the Markov chain model, the probability of occurrence under each flight state is calculated; the flight risk factors for air traffic safety are determined, including the minimum safe distance between aircraft, the speed difference between aircraft and the degree of airspace congestion; the probability of occurrence of each risk factor is statistically analyzed, and the risk level of each risk factor is quantified through probability measurement; according to the probability of each risk factor and its impact on air traffic safety, the comprehensive risk index of air traffic is comprehensively evaluated.

[0008] Furthermore, the specific process of obtaining airport ground traffic data and conducting quantitative analysis on risk factors in ground traffic operation through probability measurement is as follows: the airport ground traffic data includes ground traffic flow data and runway and taxiway occupancy data; determining risk factors in ground traffic operation, including ground traffic flow density and runway and taxiway occupancy conflicts; conducting probability measurement analysis on each risk factor to quantify the probability of occurrence.

[0009] Furthermore, the specific process of evaluating the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation is as follows: quantify the risk factors of ground transportation and determine the weight of each risk factor; comprehensively evaluate the risk level of ground transportation based on the weight and probability, and evaluate the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation.

[0010] Furthermore, the specific process of obtaining airport safety equipment data and constructing a safety equipment failure risk assessment model through fault tree analysis is as follows: the airport safety equipment data includes runway lighting system safety data, navigation facility safety data, and radar equipment safety data; determining the failure mode of each device, constructing a hierarchical structure of equipment failures through a fault tree analysis method, performing a probability assessment on each basic event in the fault tree, and calculating the probability of occurrence of events at each level; combining the equipment failure mode and occurrence probability, and comprehensively assessing the impact of equipment failures on airport surface operations through a fault tree analysis method.

[0011] Furthermore, the impact of airport safety equipment failure on airport surface operations is analyzed through probability measurement. The specific process of evaluating the safety equipment failure risk index is as follows: based on the fault tree analysis model, the probability of occurrence of each safety equipment failure mode is calculated; the influencing factors of equipment failure on surface operations are defined, the risk level of each failure mode is quantified, and the equipment failure risk index is calculated by combining the probability of occurrence and the influencing factors of each failure; the safety equipment failure risk index is obtained by combining the failure risk index of each equipment.

[0012] Furthermore, the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and the risk index of safety equipment failure are comprehensively evaluated through hierarchical analysis. The specific process of obtaining the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation is as follows: according to the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and the risk index of safety equipment failure, a hierarchical analysis structure model is constructed; the weights of each risk index are assigned using the hierarchical analysis method, and the weighted summation of each risk index is performed according to the assigned weights to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation.

[0013] Furthermore, the specific process of conducting a comprehensive assessment of airport surface operation risks based on the airport surface operation comprehensive risk index is as follows: based on the threshold of the airport surface operation comprehensive risk index, the risk level is defined; based on the airport surface operation comprehensive risk index, the risk level is compared with the preset risk level to determine the overall safety risk level of the airport surface operation.

[0014] The present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0015] (1) This comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement can identify and quantify the flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety by acquiring air traffic monitoring data and combining it with the Markov model to construct an air traffic risk assessment model. It can also accurately analyze the probability of occurrence of risk factors through probability measurement and finally evaluate the comprehensive air traffic risk index. In addition, the method also evaluates the comprehensive ground traffic risk index by acquiring ground traffic data and conducting quantitative analysis of risk factors, effectively improving the all-round risk assessment capabilities of air-ground traffic.

[0016] (2) This comprehensive evaluation method of airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement uses the fault tree analysis method to construct a safety equipment failure risk assessment model, analyzes the impact of safety equipment failure on airport surface operation through probability measurement, and further evaluates the safety equipment failure risk index. Finally, the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and the risk index of safety equipment failure are comprehensively evaluated through the hierarchical analysis method to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation, and the airport surface operation risk is globally evaluated based on the comprehensive risk index to provide scientific decision support and ensure the safety and efficiency of airport operations.

[0017] Of course, any product implementing the present invention does not necessarily need to achieve all of the advantages described above at the same time. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0018] Figure 1 The present invention is a flow chart of the comprehensive evaluation method of airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0019] The embodiment of the present application solves the problem that traditional risk assessment methods cannot comprehensively and accurately identify and quantify multi-dimensional risk factors through a comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risks based on probability measurement. By combining Markov chain, fault tree analysis and hierarchical analysis method, the risks of air traffic, ground traffic and safety equipment failures are comprehensively evaluated, and the probability of occurrence of various risks can be scientifically quantified, and risk management decisions can be optimized to improve the safety of airport surface operations and ensure the stability and reliability of airport operations.

[0020] The overall idea of ​​the solution in the embodiments of this application is as follows:

[0021] Acquire air traffic monitoring data, build an air traffic risk assessment model through the Markov model, identify flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety, quantify the probability of occurrence of flight risk factors through probability measurement, and evaluate the comprehensive air traffic risk index.

[0022] Acquire airport ground transportation data, conduct quantitative analysis on risk factors in ground transportation operations through probability measurement, and evaluate the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation.

[0023] By acquiring airport safety equipment data and building a safety equipment failure risk assessment model through fault tree analysis, the impact of airport safety equipment failure on airport surface operations is analyzed through probability measurement, and the safety equipment failure risk index is evaluated.

[0024] Through hierarchical analysis, a comprehensive evaluation is conducted on the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and risk index of safety equipment failure to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations. Based on the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations, a comprehensive assessment is conducted on the risk of airport surface operations.

[0025] See also Figure 1The embodiment of the present invention provides a technical solution: a comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement, comprising the following steps: S1. Acquire air traffic monitoring data, construct an air traffic risk assessment model through a Markov model, identify flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety, quantify the probability of occurrence of flight risk factors through probability measurement, and evaluate the comprehensive air traffic risk index; S2. Acquire airport ground traffic data, quantify the risk factors in ground traffic operation through probability measurement, and evaluate the comprehensive ground traffic risk index; S3. Acquire airport safety equipment data, construct a safety equipment failure risk assessment model through fault tree analysis, analyze the impact of airport safety equipment failure on airport surface operation through probability measurement, and evaluate the safety equipment failure risk index; S4. Analyze the air traffic through hierarchical analysis The comprehensive risk index, the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and the risk index of safety equipment failure are comprehensively evaluated to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations, and the risks of airport surface operations are comprehensively evaluated based on the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations; the comprehensive risk index of air traffic is used to measure the safety risks in air traffic operations, and to evaluate the risks of collision between aircraft, airspace congestion and flight scheduling safety; the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic is used to measure the safety risks of airport ground traffic, and to evaluate the risks of ground traffic flow, vehicle scheduling, runway use and ground collision; the safety equipment failure risk index is used to measure the risk of airport safety equipment failure, and to evaluate the impact of failure on the safety of airport surface operations; the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations is used to measure the safety risks of the overall operation of the airport, and to comprehensively evaluate the risks of air traffic, ground traffic and equipment failure.

[0026] In this implementation scheme, S1. Obtain air traffic monitoring data: obtain data such as aircraft position, speed, altitude, heading, as well as airspace information and meteorological conditions from the air traffic monitoring system. These data will provide a basis for building a risk assessment model. Construct a model: Use the Markov model to establish a model by defining different flight states and state transition probabilities. The Markov model can capture the transitions between different states in air traffic and their probability of occurrence, and identify key flight risk factors (such as distance between aircraft, speed difference, etc.). Quantitative analysis: Based on probability measurement, the probability of occurrence of each flight risk factor (such as collision risk, airspace congestion, etc.) is quantitatively analyzed, and finally an air traffic comprehensive risk index is obtained, which is used to measure the safety risks in air traffic operations. S2. Obtain ground traffic data: Collect airport ground traffic data, including the operating status of ground vehicles, runway usage, traffic flow, etc. Quantitative analysis: Through probability measurement, possible risk factors in ground traffic (such as ground collision risk, vehicle scheduling, etc.) are quantitatively evaluated, and a ground traffic comprehensive risk index is calculated, which is used to measure the safety risks of ground traffic. S3. Obtain safety equipment data: Obtain data on airport safety equipment, such as the operating status and historical fault records of runway lighting systems, navigation facilities, radar equipment, etc. Fault tree analysis: Use the fault tree analysis (FTA) method to identify equipment failure modes and analyze the root causes of equipment failures. Evaluate the probability of occurrence of each equipment failure mode through probability measurement, and then calculate the safety equipment failure risk index. Impact analysis: Analyze the potential impact of equipment failure on airport operations based on the probability of failure, and obtain the risk impact of equipment failure on airport surface operations. S4. Construct a hierarchical analysis structure model: Construct a hierarchical analysis (AHP) structure model based on the risk index of air traffic, ground traffic and safety equipment failure. Each risk index corresponds to a level and is assigned a weight according to its importance. Weighted summation: Calculate the weight of each risk index through the hierarchical analysis method, and perform weighted summation to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations, which comprehensively reflects the overall risk of air traffic, ground traffic and safety equipment failures. Comprehensive assessment: Evaluate the overall operational risk of the airport through the comprehensive risk index, so as to provide scientific decision support for airport managers. Markov model: used to analyze and predict the transition of a system between different states and the probability of its occurrence. It is particularly suitable for risk assessment of dynamic systems such as air traffic. By constructing a transition matrix based on historical data and current state, the risk of flight status can be quantified. Probability measurement: a method in statistical analysis used to quantify the probability of occurrence of uncertain events. Through probability measurement, the probability of occurrence of risk factors can be clearly measured and their impact on the system can be comprehensively evaluated.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA): A systematic analysis method used to identify the root causes of equipment failures. By constructing a fault tree model, the cause-effect relationship of equipment failures is hierarchical, thereby evaluating the probability of each event and ultimately calculating the risk of equipment failure. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): A multi-criteria decision analysis method that constructs a hierarchical structure, compares the importance of each risk factor and assigns weights, and finally obtains a comprehensive evaluation index (risk index) through weighted average.

[0027] Specifically, the specific process of obtaining air traffic monitoring data and constructing an air traffic risk assessment model through Markov is as follows: air traffic monitoring data includes aircraft position, speed, altitude, heading, flight status, airspace information, and meteorological conditions; define the flight status and construct a state transfer matrix; calculate the state transition probability through air traffic monitoring historical data, construct a Markov chain model, and identify flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety.

[0028] In this implementation plan, air traffic monitoring data is obtained: including aircraft position, speed, altitude, heading, flight status, airspace information, meteorological conditions, etc., to evaluate the operating status of air traffic. Define flight status and construct a state transfer matrix: define different flight states including take-off, cruising, and landing, and construct a state transfer matrix to describe the probability of transitioning from one state to another. Calculate state transition probabilities through historical air traffic monitoring data: analyze historical data, calculate the probability of aircraft transitioning between different states, and establish a statistical model for state transitions. Construct a Markov chain model: use the Markov chain model to represent the transition process between aircraft states, predict possible future flight states, and evaluate corresponding safety risks. Identify flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety: based on the Markov model, identify and quantify risk factors in the flight process, such as the minimum distance between aircraft, speed differences, airspace congestion, and meteorological conditions, which affect the safety of air traffic.

[0029] Specifically, the probability of occurrence of flight risk factors is quantitatively analyzed through probability measurement, and the specific process of evaluating the comprehensive air traffic risk index is as follows: according to the state transition probability of the Markov chain model, the occurrence probability under each flight state is calculated; the flight risk factors for air traffic safety are determined, including the minimum safe distance between aircraft, the speed difference between aircraft and the degree of airspace congestion; the probability of occurrence of each risk factor is statistically analyzed, and the risk level of each risk factor is quantified through probability measurement; according to the probability of each risk factor and its impact on air traffic safety, the comprehensive air traffic risk index is comprehensively evaluated.

[0030] In this implementation, the probability of occurrence of each flight state is calculated based on the Markov chain model. In the Markov model, the flight state transition process is represented by the state transition matrix. The probability of occurrence of each state is calculated through historical data, denoted as p i , that is, the probability that the aircraft is in state i. Formula: p i = p i : The probability of flight state i occurring, indicating the frequency of the aircraft being in state i within the time range T. t represents the time point, t∈{1,2,…,T}. T: The number of data points of historical data. 1 {Xt -i}: indicator function, if at time point t, the flight state X t If it is equal to state i, the value is 1; otherwise, it is 0. t : The state of the aircraft at time point t, X t ∈{1,2,…,N}, where N is the total number of flight states. In this scheme, the flight risk factor of air traffic safety mainly includes the minimum safe distance between aircraft: it is usually required that aircraft maintain a certain safe distance to prevent collision. Assume that the minimum safe distance is d min . Speed ​​difference between aircraft: Aircraft with large speed difference may cause flight path conflicts. Let the speed difference be Δv. Airspace congestion degree: Airspace congestion may cause flight delays or conflicts. The airspace congestion degree is represented by C airspace The value range is [0,1], where 0 means no congestion and 1 means maximum congestion. The probability of each flight risk factor is estimated through historical data or real-time monitoring data. j (j∈{1,2,3}, corresponding to the minimum safe distance, speed difference, and airspace congestion, respectively), we can use the probability density function f j (x) Model it and get the probability of occurrence of risk factors. Formula: p j : The probability of the occurrence of risk factor j (minimum safe distance, speed difference or airspace congestion). It means that the risk factor j is greater than or equal to a certain threshold a j j: represents the number of the risk factor. j = 1 represents the minimum safe distance, j = 2 represents the speed difference, and j = 3 represents airspace congestion. j (x): The probability density function of risk factor j, which represents the probability density a at a certain value x. j : The threshold of risk factor j, indicating that when the factor exceeds this value, it is considered a risk event. For example, for the minimum safety distance, a 1 It may be a minimum aircraft spacing requirement; for airspace congestion, a 3 It may be the maximum airspace load x: the continuous value of the risk factor. By calculating the probability of occurrence p of each risk factorj By conducting quantitative analysis, we can get the contribution of each factor to air traffic safety. We can measure the risk of each factor as the product of its probability and the corresponding risk weight. The risk measurement formula of risk factor is: R j =w j ·p j ; R j : Risk factor j is the risk measure for air traffic safety. It represents the contribution of factor j to the overall risk. j : The weight of risk factor j, indicating the relative importance of the risk factor to air traffic safety. The weight value is usually set based on historical data to ensure that important risk factors are given higher weights. j : The probability of occurrence of risk factor j, such as the probability calculated above. The air traffic comprehensive risk index is obtained by weighted comprehensive calculation based on the probability and risk measurement of each flight risk factor. The calculation formula is: R total : Comprehensive air traffic risk index, which indicates the safety risk of the entire air traffic system. It is obtained by weighted summation of the risk measures of each risk factor. j: Risk factor number. j = 1 corresponds to the minimum safe distance, j = 2 corresponds to the speed difference, and j = 3 corresponds to airspace congestion. w j : The weight of risk factor j. p j : The probability of occurrence of risk factor j; It represents the weighted sum of all three risk factors, which comprehensively calculates the overall safety risk of air traffic.

[0031] Specifically, the specific process of obtaining airport ground traffic data and conducting quantitative analysis of risk factors in ground traffic operations through probability measurement is as follows: Airport ground traffic data includes ground traffic flow data and runway and taxiway occupancy data; Determine the risk factors in ground traffic operations, including ground traffic flow density and runway and taxiway occupancy conflicts; Conduct probability measurement analysis on each risk factor to quantify the probability of occurrence.

[0032] In this implementation, the step of obtaining airport ground traffic data includes collecting the following two types of data:

[0033] Ground traffic flow data: including traffic density and vehicle flow data on the airport ground. These data can be obtained through sensors, surveillance cameras or other real-time data collection equipment to reflect the overall situation of ground traffic. Runway and taxiway occupancy data: This data mainly includes the real-time occupancy status of runways and taxiways, such as which flights are taxiing and which flights have occupied the runway. This information can be obtained through the monitoring system or the ground command and dispatch system. In the ground transportation system, there are several key risk factors that may affect safe operation, mainly including: Ground traffic flow density: This risk factor reflects the busyness of the airport ground traffic. When the flow density is too high, it may cause traffic jams, mutual interference between vehicles, and even increase the risk of collision. Runway and taxiway occupancy conflict: refers to the situation in which the occupancy of the runway and the taxiway may conflict in some cases. For example, some flights on the taxiway may conflict with the runway in use, and such a conflict may cause flight delays or other safety risks. These two risk factors are the most critical factors in ground transportation, and they directly affect the smoothness and safety of ground transportation. The purpose of probability measurement analysis is to quantify the probability of occurrence of each risk factor, so as to evaluate their impact on ground traffic safety. The specific steps include: Risk assessment of ground traffic flow density: Based on actual traffic flow data, evaluate the safety risks under different flow densities. For example, certain periods of high flow density may cause traffic jams or close operations between vehicles, and the risk of flow density is high at this time. Risk assessment of runway and taxiway occupancy conflicts: Analyze the occupancy of runways and taxiways to identify at which times or under which circumstances occupancy conflicts may occur. By analyzing historical data, the probability of occurrence of each situation can be evaluated and the risk of conflict can be further quantified. These two steps can quantify the probability of occurrence of risk factors in the ground transportation system by using probability measurement methods (statistical analysis, probability distribution function), thereby providing the necessary basis for ground transportation risk assessment. In the quantification process, the probability of occurrence of each risk factor is evaluated by analyzing the collected data, and the results are expressed as a certain value. For example, the probability of occurrence of ground traffic flow density or occupancy conflicts can be obtained through historical data statistics and probability distribution models. These probabilities can help further understand the frequency of occurrence of potential risks and provide support for risk assessment and decision-making.

[0034] Specifically, the specific process of evaluating the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation is as follows: quantify the risk factors of ground transportation and determine the weight of each risk factor; based on the weight and probability, comprehensively evaluate the risk level of ground transportation and evaluate the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation.

[0035] In this implementation plan, it is necessary to quantify each key risk factor in the ground transportation system. These factors may include ground traffic flow density: reflecting the busyness of ground traffic. Quantitative analysis can be performed by the number of vehicles and flow density. Runway and taxiway occupancy conflict: evaluate the probability of runway and taxiway occupancy conflict under different circumstances, such as whether there are multiple flights occupying the same runway or taxiway at the same time. For each risk factor, first calculate the probability of occurrence of the risk factor by collecting historical data or real-time monitoring data, and quantify it using the probability measurement method. After quantifying the risk factors, it is necessary to assign weights to each factor to determine their relative importance in the overall risk assessment. This can be determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Weight of ground traffic flow density: This factor directly affects the probability of traffic accidents, so it is given a higher weight. Weight of runway and taxiway occupancy conflict: This factor involves safety and may have a great impact on the risk assessment of ground transportation, so its weight is also higher. The weight of each risk factor is determined by a certain method as w 1 ,w 2 ,...,w m , where m is the number of risk factors, and each weight value satisfies: w 1 +w 2 +…+w m =1; according to the probability of occurrence of each risk factor P 1 ,P 2 ,...,P m and its corresponding weight w 1 ,w 2 ,...,w m , calculate the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation. Comprehensive risk index R gt It is the result of weighted sum of all risk factors. The calculation formula is as follows: gt =w 1 ·P 1 +w 2 ·P 2 +…+w m ·P m ; Among them: R gt is the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation; w m is the weight of the mth risk factor, P m is the probability of the nth risk factor occurring.

[0036] Specifically, the specific process of obtaining airport safety equipment data and constructing a safety equipment failure risk assessment model through fault tree analysis is as follows: Airport safety equipment data includes runway lighting system safety data, navigation facility safety data, and radar equipment safety data; Determine the failure mode of each device, and construct a hierarchical structure of equipment failures through the fault tree analysis method, conduct probability assessment on each basic event in the fault tree, and calculate the probability of occurrence of events at each level; Combine equipment failure modes and occurrence probabilities, and use the fault tree analysis method to comprehensively assess the impact of equipment failures on airport surface operations.

[0037] In this implementation scheme, the data of airport safety equipment is obtained, including the safety data of the runway lighting system: including the working status, fault history, and maintenance records of the runway lights. The safety data of navigation facilities: including the status, fault records, and maintenance status of airport navigation facilities (radio navigation, automated ground system). The safety data of radar equipment: including the operating status, fault history, and performance indicators of radar equipment. These data provide basic information for subsequent analysis and are used to evaluate the working status and failure risk of the equipment. By analyzing the design, usage, and historical failure data of the equipment, the possible failure modes of each device are determined. Each device may have multiple failure modes, for example: the failure mode of the runway lighting system: such as burnout of bulbs, power problems, control system failure, etc. The failure mode of navigation facilities: such as signal interference, equipment failure, frequency scheduling errors, etc. The failure mode of radar equipment: such as radar signal loss, signal processing errors, hardware failures, etc. The failure mode of each device can be defined in detail according to the type of equipment, usage environment, and historical failure data to form various scenarios of equipment failure. The hierarchical structure of equipment failures is constructed by the fault tree analysis method. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a commonly used systematic failure analysis method for identifying and analyzing possible failures of equipment or systems. Through FTA, a hierarchical structure of equipment failure is constructed. The specific steps are as follows: Top Event: First, determine the top event of the fault tree, that is, the final result of the system failure. For example, the failure of the runway lighting system may lead to the top event of "runway lighting system failure". Intermediate Event: Various intermediate events that may occur under the top event. For example, the possible causes of runway lighting failure may include "power disconnection" and "bulb damage". Basic Event: Each intermediate event is further decomposed into basic events, which are the simplest atomic events in the system. For example, "power disconnection" may be caused by "circuit board damage" or "power switch failure". Through this hierarchical structure, various possible causes of equipment failure can be comprehensively and systematically identified, and their impact can be analyzed layer by layer. Under each basic event of the fault tree, a probability assessment is required. The probability of occurrence is assigned to each basic event through statistical data, historical fault records, expert estimates, etc. For example: The probability of a bulb damage: an estimated probability may be obtained by statistically analyzing past equipment failure records. The probability of power disconnection: the probability of occurrence may be assessed through data such as the equipment's operating years and maintenance frequency. These probability assessments provide a quantitative basis for subsequent risk analysis, so that the system's failure risk can be calculated through mathematical models. According to the probability of events at each level in the fault tree and their basic events, the probability of occurrence of events at each level is calculated through appropriate calculation methods (such as "AND gate" and "OR gate" rules). For example: "AND gate" calculation: If an intermediate event is caused by multiple basic events, and all basic events need to occur at the same time to cause the intermediate event, the "AND gate" rule is used for calculation. Its probability is the product of the probabilities of each basic event."OR gate" calculation: If an intermediate event is caused by multiple basic events, and the occurrence of only one basic event can cause the intermediate event to occur, the "OR gate" rule is used for calculation. Its probability is the union of the probability of occurrence of each basic event. Through these calculations, the probability of occurrence of each level of events can be obtained, and deduced upward step by step, and finally the probability of occurrence of the top event can be obtained.

[0038] Specifically, the impact of airport safety equipment failure on airport surface operations is analyzed through probability measurement. The specific process of evaluating the safety equipment failure risk index is as follows: based on the fault tree analysis model, the probability of occurrence of each safety equipment failure mode is calculated; the influencing factors of equipment failure on surface operations are defined, the risk level of each failure mode is quantified, and the equipment failure risk index is calculated by combining the probability of occurrence and the influencing factors of each failure; the safety equipment failure risk index is obtained by combining the failure risk index of each equipment.

[0039] In this implementation plan, the process calculates the probability of occurrence of failure modes of each safety equipment in the airport through the fault tree analysis model, and evaluates the failure risk index of each equipment in combination with the impact factors of equipment failure on airport surface operation. Finally, the failure risk index of each equipment is combined to obtain the safety equipment failure risk index of the entire airport. Formula description: is the failure risk index of the ath device, and the formula is as follows: in: is the failure risk index of the ath device; P ba is the probability of occurrence of the bth failure mode of the ath device; I ba is the impact factor of the bth failure mode of the ath equipment on the airport surface operation; n a is the total number of failure modes of the ath device. By comprehensively calculating the probability of occurrence and influencing factors of each device failure mode, the failure risk index of each device can be obtained. Calculation of comprehensive equipment failure risk index: Further, in order to obtain the safety equipment failure risk index of the entire airport, the failure risk index of all devices can be weighted and summed. The safety equipment failure risk index formula is, Where: R q : Safety equipment failure risk index, w a The weight of the ath device reflects the relative importance of the device to airport safety; is the failure risk index of the ath device; C is the total number of devices.

[0040] Specifically, the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and the risk index of safety equipment failure are comprehensively evaluated through hierarchical analysis. The specific process of obtaining the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation is as follows: according to the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and the risk index of safety equipment failure, a hierarchical analysis structural model is constructed; the weights of each risk index are assigned using the hierarchical analysis method, and the weighted summation of each risk index is performed according to the assigned weights to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation.

[0041] In this implementation plan, the process uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to comprehensively evaluate the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic, and the risk index of safety equipment failure, and finally calculates the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations. First, a hierarchical analysis model is constructed to determine the weights of each risk index; then, the weighted sum of each risk index is performed according to these weights to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations. Formula expression: R DF is the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations, and the formula is as follows: Where: R DF is the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations; R k is the kth risk index, including the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and the risk index of safety equipment failure; w k is the weight of the kth risk index, indicating the relative importance of the risk index to the comprehensive risk of airport surface operations. The values ​​of k are 1 (air traffic), 2 (ground traffic), and 3 (safety equipment failure). k : represents the kth individual risk index (air traffic risk index, ground traffic risk index or safety equipment failure risk index). Each R k is calculated separately, and the calculation method has been introduced above. k : The weight of each risk index reflects the importance of the risk in airport surface operations. It is usually determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), based on expert judgment and data analysis. Weighted sum: According to the weight of each risk index w k ,Each risk index is weighted to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations.

[0042] Specifically, the specific process of comprehensive assessment of airport surface operation risks based on the airport surface operation comprehensive risk index is as follows: based on the threshold of the airport surface operation comprehensive risk index, the risk level is defined; based on the airport surface operation comprehensive risk index, the risk level is compared with the preset risk level to determine the overall safety risk level of the airport surface operation.

[0043] In this implementation plan, the risk level threshold is determined: according to the comprehensive risk index of the airport surface operation, a series of thresholds are set to divide it into different risk levels. Low risk, medium risk and high risk levels are set, and each level corresponds to a different risk index range. The calculated comprehensive risk index of the airport surface operation is compared with the preset risk level. The overall safety risk level of the airport surface operation is determined. Risk level division: The risk level division is set based on actual operating data and historical safety incidents. By comparing historical cases and expert experience, specific thresholds of the risk index are set. These thresholds intuitively evaluate the safety status of the airport. The current safety risk level of the airport surface can be quickly judged. This evaluation method enables airport managers to clearly understand the size of the safety risk and take corresponding safety measures.

[0044] In summary, this application has at least the following effects:

[0045] The comprehensive evaluation method of airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement, combined with the comprehensive evaluation of air traffic, ground traffic and safety equipment failure, can comprehensively and accurately evaluate the potential risks in airport surface operation, timely discover safety hazards, and thus effectively improve the safety of airport operation. By performing probability measurement and hierarchical analysis on various risk factors, the probability of occurrence of various risks and their impact can be quantified, providing scientific and objective decision-making support for airport management, which helps to optimize risk management strategies and reduce the probability of accidents. According to the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation, the risk level can be divided, the evaluation criteria can be adjusted dynamically and the changes in the operating environment can be reflected in real time, so that the airport can respond quickly to various emergencies and ensure the continuity and safety of operations. It is applicable to a variety of airport environments and can be adjusted and optimized according to the specific conditions of different airports to meet the risk assessment needs of airport surface operations of various sizes and types.

[0046] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention may take the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware. Moreover, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0047] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of systems, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0048] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0049] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0050] Although the preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described, those skilled in the art may make other changes and modifications to these embodiments once they have learned the basic creative concept. Therefore, the appended claims are intended to be interpreted as including the preferred embodiments and all changes and modifications that fall within the scope of the present invention.

[0051] Obviously, those skilled in the art can make various changes and modifications to the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Thus, if these modifications and variations of the present invention fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention and their equivalents, the present invention is also intended to include these modifications and variations.

Claims

1. A comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement is characterized by: The following steps are involved: S1. Obtain air traffic monitoring data, build an air traffic risk assessment model through the Markov model, identify flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety, quantify the probability of occurrence of flight risk factors through probability measurement, and evaluate the comprehensive air traffic risk index; S2. Obtain airport ground transportation data, conduct quantitative analysis of risk factors in ground transportation operations through probability measurement, and evaluate the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation; S3. Obtain airport safety equipment data, construct a safety equipment failure risk assessment model through fault tree analysis, analyze the impact of airport safety equipment failure on airport surface operations through probability measurement, and evaluate the safety equipment failure risk index; S4. Comprehensively evaluate the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and risk index of safety equipment failure through hierarchical analysis to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation, and conduct a comprehensive assessment of the risk of airport surface operation based on the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation; The air traffic comprehensive risk index is used to measure the safety risks in air traffic operations and assess the collision risks between aircraft, airspace congestion and flight scheduling safety; The ground transportation comprehensive risk index is used to measure the safety risk of airport ground transportation and evaluate ground transportation flow, vehicle scheduling, runway use and ground collision risk; The safety equipment failure risk index is used to measure the risk of airport safety equipment failure and assess the impact of failure on airport surface operation safety. The airport surface operation comprehensive risk index is used to measure the safety risk of the overall airport operation and comprehensively evaluate the risks of air traffic, ground traffic and equipment failure.

2. The comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement according to claim 1 is characterized by: The specific process of obtaining air traffic monitoring data and constructing an air traffic risk assessment model through Markov is as follows: The air traffic monitoring data includes aircraft position, speed, altitude, heading, flight status, airspace information, and weather conditions; Define flight states and construct state transfer matrix; The state transition probability is calculated through historical air traffic monitoring data, and a Markov chain model is constructed to identify flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety.

3. The comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement according to claim 2 is characterized by: The specific process of quantitatively analyzing the probability of occurrence of flight risk factors through probability measurement and evaluating the comprehensive risk index of air traffic is as follows: According to the state transition probability of the Markov chain model, the occurrence probability of each flight state is calculated; Determine flight risk factors for air traffic safety, including minimum safe distances between aircraft, speed differences between aircraft, and airspace congestion levels; Conduct statistical analysis on the probability of occurrence of each risk factor and quantify the risk level of each risk factor through probability measurement; Based on the probability of each risk factor and its impact on air traffic safety, a comprehensive assessment of the air traffic comprehensive risk index is conducted.

4. The comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement according to claim 3 is characterized by: The specific process of obtaining airport ground traffic data and conducting quantitative analysis of risk factors in ground traffic operations through probability measurement is as follows: The airport ground traffic data includes ground traffic flow data, runway and taxiway occupancy data; Identify risk factors in ground traffic operations, including ground traffic density, runway and taxiway occupancy conflicts; Conduct probability measurement analysis on each risk factor to quantify the probability of occurrence.

5. The comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement according to claim 4 is characterized by: The specific process of evaluating the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation is as follows: Quantify ground transportation risk factors and determine the weight of each risk factor; Based on the weights and probabilities, the risk level of ground transportation is comprehensively assessed, and the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation is evaluated.

6. The comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement according to claim 5 is characterized by: The specific process of obtaining airport safety equipment data and building a safety equipment failure risk assessment model through fault tree analysis is as follows: The airport safety equipment data includes runway lighting system safety data, navigation facility safety data, and radar equipment safety data; Determine the failure mode of each device, construct a hierarchical structure of equipment failures through the fault tree analysis method, conduct probability assessment on each basic event in the fault tree, and calculate the probability of occurrence of each level of event; Combined with the equipment failure modes and occurrence probabilities, the impact of equipment failures on airport surface operations is comprehensively evaluated through the fault tree analysis method.

7. The comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement according to claim 6 is characterized by: The specific process of analyzing the impact of airport safety equipment failure on airport surface operations through probability measurement and evaluating the safety equipment failure risk index is as follows: Based on the fault tree analysis model, calculate the probability of occurrence of each safety device failure mode; Define the impact factors of equipment failure on field operation, quantify the risk level of each failure mode, and calculate the equipment failure risk index by combining the probability of occurrence and impact factors of each failure; The safety equipment failure risk index is derived by combining the failure risk index of each device.

8. The comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement according to claim 7 is characterized by: The specific process of comprehensively evaluating the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, ground traffic and safety equipment failure through hierarchical analysis to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation is as follows: According to the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and risk index of safety equipment failure, a hierarchical analysis structure model is constructed; The analytic hierarchy process is used to assign weights to each risk index, and the weighted sum of each risk index is taken according to the assigned weights to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations.

9. The comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement according to claim 8 is characterized by: The specific process of comprehensive assessment of airport surface operation risk based on the airport surface operation comprehensive risk index is as follows: Determine the risk level based on the threshold of the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations; The comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations is compared with the preset risk level to determine the overall safety risk level of airport surface operations.

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