Railway system reliability analysis method and device based on fault tree

Abstract

The invention provides a railway system reliability analysis method and device based on a fault tree, and relates to the technical field of railway traffic, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining historical fault data corresponding to a plurality of railway subsystems in a railway system; for each railway subsystem, constructing a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, and determining a subsystem fault rate corresponding to the railway subsystem based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model; and determining a train final arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on the fault rates of all the subsystems, and determining the fault rates of all the subsystems and the train final arrival punctuality rate as a reliability analysis result corresponding to the railway system. According to the technical scheme, the adopted fault tree model is simpler in structure, and a more accurate reliability analysis result can be obtained. In addition, fault rate analysis is carried out on all railway subsystems instead of parts, and comprehensiveness of reliability analysis results is ensured.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of railway transportation technology, and in particular to a railway system reliability analysis method and device based on a fault tree. Background Art

[0002] The reliability of a railway system refers to the ability of a railway system to complete specified tasks within specified time and conditions. In order to ensure that all components of the railway system can operate normally and reliably and to minimize the impact of failures on the railway system, it is very important to analyze and evaluate the reliability of the railway system.

[0003] The existing technology evaluates reliability by constructing a reliability evaluation model. However, due to the complex structure and large scale of the railway system, as well as the complex coupling relationship between the subsystems, the integrity of the constructed reliability evaluation model is poor, resulting in low accuracy of the reliability analysis results. In addition, the existing technology uses a fixed failure rate to analyze a single component in the railway system, which does not take into account the actual operation of the railway system, and its analysis results are relatively one-sided. Summary of the invention

[0004] The present invention provides a method and device for analyzing the reliability of a railway system based on a fault tree, which is used to solve the defects of low accuracy and one-sidedness of the reliability analysis results in the prior art. The fault tree model adopted in the technical solution of the present invention not only has a simpler structure, but also can obtain accurate and highly timely subsystem failure rates, thereby obtaining more accurate reliability analysis results. In addition, the failure rate analysis of all railway subsystems rather than components also ensures the comprehensiveness of the reliability analysis results.

[0005] The present invention provides a railway system reliability analysis method based on a fault tree, comprising the following steps.

[0006] Obtain historical fault data corresponding to multiple railway subsystems in the railway system; For each of the railway subsystems, a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is constructed based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, and a subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model; The train punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on the failure rates of all the subsystems, and the failure rates of all the subsystems and the train punctuality rate are determined as the reliability analysis results corresponding to the railway system.

[0007] According to a railway system reliability analysis method based on a fault tree provided by the present invention, the fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is constructed based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, including: Determine the fault event corresponding to the railway subsystem as the top-level fault event; Determine a plurality of intermediate fault events corresponding to the top-level fault event, and a plurality of bottom-level fault events corresponding to each of the intermediate fault events; A fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on the top-level fault event, all the intermediate fault events and all the bottom-level fault events.

[0008] According to a railway system reliability analysis method based on a fault tree provided by the present invention, the fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on the top-level fault event, all the intermediate fault events and all the bottom-level fault events, including: determining an intermediate logic gate relationship between the top-level fault event and all the intermediate fault events; For each of the intermediate fault events, determining a bottom-level logic gate relationship between the intermediate fault event and a corresponding bottom-level fault event; The top-level fault event, the intermediate logic gate relationship, all the intermediate fault events, the bottom-level logic gate relationship corresponding to each intermediate fault event, and all the bottom-level fault events are determined as a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem.

[0009] According to a railway system reliability analysis method based on a fault tree provided by the present invention, the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and a fault tree model, including: Determining the underlying occurrence probability of each of all the underlying fault events based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem; For each of the intermediate fault events, determining an intermediate occurrence probability of the intermediate fault event based on the underlying occurrence probability of the underlying fault event corresponding to the intermediate fault event; The top-level occurrence probability of the top-level fault event is determined based on the intermediate occurrence probabilities of all the intermediate fault events, and the top-level occurrence probability is determined as the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem.

[0010] According to a railway system reliability analysis method based on a fault tree provided by the present invention, the method of determining the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on the failure rates of all the subsystems includes: For each of the railway subsystems, determining the inverse of the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem as the failure impact time corresponding to the railway subsystem; Based on the failure rates of all the subsystems and the impact times of all the failures, a train operation simulation is performed using a Monte Carlo method to obtain a plurality of simulation operation samples; The train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on all the simulation operation samples.

[0011] According to a fault tree-based railway system reliability analysis method provided by the present invention, the method of determining the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on all the simulation operation samples includes: Determine the faulty samples among all the simulation running samples, and for each of the faulty samples, determine the on-time arrival rate of the sample trains corresponding to the faulty samples; Determine the average of the final arrival punctuality rates of all the sample trains as the average final arrival punctuality rate of trains; The train punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on the number of the faulty samples, the number of the non-faulty samples, and the average train punctuality rate.

[0012] According to a railway system reliability analysis method based on a fault tree provided by the present invention, the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on the number of fault samples, the number of non-fault samples, and the average train arrival punctuality rate, including: in, represents the train arrival punctuality rate, represents the number of fault samples, represents the number of non-faulty samples, It represents the average train arrival punctuality rate.

[0013] The present invention also provides a railway system reliability analysis device based on a fault tree, comprising the following modules: An acquisition module, used to acquire historical fault data corresponding to each of multiple railway subsystems in the railway system; a determination module, configured to construct, for each of the railway subsystems, a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, and to determine, for each of the railway subsystems, a subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model; The analysis module is used to determine the train punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on the failure rates of all the subsystems, and determine the failure rates of all the subsystems and the train punctuality rate as the reliability analysis results corresponding to the railway system.

[0014] The present invention also provides an electronic device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, the method for analyzing the reliability of a railway system based on a fault tree as described above is implemented.

[0015] The present invention also provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for analyzing the reliability of a railway system based on a fault tree as described above is implemented.

[0016] The present invention also provides a computer program product, comprising a computer program, wherein when the computer program is executed by a processor, the computer program implements any of the above-mentioned methods for analyzing the reliability of a railway system based on a fault tree.

[0017] The method and device for analyzing the reliability of a railway system based on a fault tree provided by the present invention obtain the historical fault data corresponding to each of the multiple railway subsystems in the railway system; for each railway subsystem, a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is constructed based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, and the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model; the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on the failure rates of all subsystems, and the failure rates of all subsystems and the train arrival punctuality rate are determined as the reliability analysis results corresponding to the railway system. The technical solution of the present invention determines the subsystem failure rate of each railway subsystem according to the fault tree model corresponding to each railway subsystem in the railway system, and then determines the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on the failure rates of all subsystems, and further determines the failure rates of all subsystems and the train arrival punctuality rate as the reliability analysis results. Compared with the traditional reliability analysis model, the fault tree model adopted by the present invention is not only simpler in structure, but also can obtain accurate and highly timely subsystem failure rates and train arrival punctuality rates, so as to obtain more accurate reliability analysis results. In addition, the failure rate analysis of all railway subsystems rather than components also ensures the comprehensiveness of the reliability analysis results. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0018] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the present invention or the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0019] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the railway system reliability analysis method based on fault tree provided by the present invention.

[0020] Figure 2 It is a structural schematic diagram of the railway system provided by the present invention.

[0021] Figure 3 It is one of the schematic diagrams of the fault tree model provided by the present invention.

[0022] Figure 4 This is the second schematic diagram of the fault tree model provided by the present invention.

[0023] Figure 5 It is a structural schematic diagram of a railway system reliability analysis device based on a fault tree provided by the present invention.

[0024] Figure 6 It is a structural schematic diagram of the electronic device provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0025] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solution of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0026] In view of the above problems in the prior art, the present invention provides a railway system reliability analysis method based on a fault tree. Figure 1 FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for analyzing the reliability of a railway system based on a fault tree provided by the present invention. Figure 1 As shown, the method includes the following steps 110, 120 and 130.

[0027] Step 110: Acquire historical fault data corresponding to each of the plurality of railway subsystems in the railway system.

[0028] Specifically, the railway system includes a plurality of railway subsystems, and the railway subsystem includes a plurality of components. Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the structure of the railway system provided by the present invention, such as Figure 2 As shown, the railway system may include four railway subsystems: mobile equipment, engineering, communication signal, and traction power supply. It should be noted that the railway system is usually divided into the above four railway subsystems based on the correlation and independence between the various parts of the railway system, but other numbers of railway subsystems may also be determined by different division methods, and the embodiments of the present invention do not make specific limitations here. Figure 2 As shown, mobile equipment may include components such as car bodies, bogies and traction transmission, civil engineering may include components such as tracks, tunnels and bridges, communication signals may include components such as onboard train control, ground train control and trackside equipment, and traction power supply may include components such as overhead lines, electric power supply and traction power supply and transformation. Furthermore, the target historical fault data corresponding to the railway system may be obtained, and then the target historical fault data may be classified to determine the historical fault data corresponding to each of the multiple railway subsystems.

[0029] Step 120: For each of the railway subsystems, a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is constructed based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, and a subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model.

[0030] Specifically, a fault tree is an inverted tree-like logical cause-and-effect relationship diagram. For each railway subsystem, a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem can be constructed based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem. It is easy to understand that the fault tree models corresponding to different railway subsystems are not the same. The fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is used to determine the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem.

[0031] In one embodiment, constructing a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem based on historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem includes: Determine the fault event corresponding to the railway subsystem as the top-level fault event; Determine a plurality of intermediate fault events corresponding to the top-level fault event, and a plurality of bottom-level fault events corresponding to each of the intermediate fault events; A fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on the top-level fault event, all the intermediate fault events and all the bottom-level fault events.

[0032] Specifically, for each railway subsystem, the fault event corresponding to the railway subsystem can be determined as the top-level fault event corresponding to the railway subsystem. For example, the mobile equipment fault event corresponding to the mobile equipment can be determined as the top-level fault event corresponding to the mobile equipment. Further, multiple intermediate fault events corresponding to the top-level fault event and multiple bottom-level fault events corresponding to each intermediate fault event can be determined. Figure 3 It is one of the schematic diagrams of the fault tree model provided by the present invention, such as Figure 3 As shown in the figure, the top-level fault event corresponding to the traction power supply railway subsystem is the traction power supply fault, and the multiple intermediate fault events corresponding to the top-level fault event are the traction power supply and transformation fault, the overhead line fault and the power sub-fault. The bottom-level fault events corresponding to the traction power supply and transformation fault include power cable fault, transformer fault and switch fault; the bottom-level fault events corresponding to the overhead line fault include overhead line suspension fault, support device fault, expenditure and foundation failure and positioning device failure; the bottom-level fault events corresponding to the electronic sub-fault include power distribution station fault and full-line cable fault. Figure 4 This is the second schematic diagram of the fault tree model provided by the present invention, such as Figure 4As shown in the figure, the top-level fault event corresponding to the railway subsystem of the engineering project is the engineering project fault, and the multiple intermediate fault events corresponding to the top-level fault event are station fault, track fault, bridge fault, roadbed fault and tunnel fault. The bottom-level fault events corresponding to the station fault include abnormal driving subsystem, abnormal shunting subsystem, abnormal passenger transport subsystem and abnormal construction and maintenance subsystem; the bottom-level fault events corresponding to the track fault include rail fault, no indication of turnout, roadbed fault and connection parts fault; the bottom-level fault events corresponding to the bridge fault include pier fault, abutment fault, pile foundation fault, bearing fault and bridge span structure damage; the bottom-level fault events corresponding to the roadbed fault include mud bubbling, sinking, extrusion deformation, caving, landslide, slope collapse, slope scour, flooded roadbed, frost damage, rockfall, mudslide and poor drainage; the bottom-level fault events corresponding to the tunnel fault include water leakage or frost damage, lining structure damage, ancillary facilities damage and cave entrance back slope rockfall. It is easy to understand that the mobile equipment railway subsystem and the communication signal railway subsystem also correspond to one top-level fault event, multiple intermediate fault events and multiple bottom-level fault events respectively, which are not listed one by one in the embodiment of the present invention.

[0033] Furthermore, a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem may be determined based on the top-level fault event, all intermediate fault events and all bottom-level fault events corresponding to the railway subsystem.

[0034] Optionally, in the process of constructing a fault tree model corresponding to a railway subsystem based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, the bottom-level fault events and the top-level fault events are bound to exist, but the intermediate fault events may not exist, that is, the top-level fault event may directly correspond to multiple bottom-level fault events. Intermediate fault events may also have multiple layers, for example, the top-level fault event corresponds to multiple first-level intermediate fault events, and for each first-level intermediate fault event, the first-level intermediate fault event corresponds to multiple second-level intermediate fault events; for each second-level intermediate fault event, the second-level intermediate fault event corresponds to multiple bottom-level fault events. The present invention can set intermediate fault events as needed to construct a more reasonable fault tree model.

[0035] In the above embodiment, the fault event corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined as the top-level fault event, multiple intermediate fault events corresponding to the top-level fault event, and multiple bottom-level fault events corresponding to each intermediate fault event are determined, and a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is constructed, which lays a foundation for the subsequent determination of the subsystem failure rate of each railway subsystem.

[0036] In one embodiment, determining the fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem based on the top-level fault event, all the intermediate fault events and all the bottom-level fault events includes: determining an intermediate logic gate relationship between the top-level fault event and all the intermediate fault events; For each of the intermediate fault events, determining a bottom-level logic gate relationship between the intermediate fault event and a corresponding bottom-level fault event; The top-level fault event, the intermediate logic gate relationship, all the intermediate fault events, the bottom-level logic gate relationship corresponding to each intermediate fault event, and all the bottom-level fault events are determined as a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem.

[0037] Specifically, the intermediate logic gate relationship between the top-level fault event and all intermediate fault events can be determined. When any intermediate fault event occurs, the top-level fault event occurs, and the intermediate logic gate relationship between the top-level fault event and all intermediate fault events is determined to be an OR gate relationship. When all intermediate fault events occur, and the top-level fault event occurs, the intermediate logic gate relationship between the top-level fault event and all intermediate fault events is determined to be an AND gate relationship. Figure 3 As shown, the intermediate logic gate relationship between the top-level fault event and all intermediate fault events is an OR gate relationship. Further, for each intermediate fault event, the underlying logic gate relationship between the intermediate fault event and the corresponding bottom-level fault event can be determined. When any bottom-level fault event occurs, then when the intermediate fault event occurs, the underlying logic gate relationship between the intermediate fault event and all the corresponding bottom-level fault events is determined to be an OR gate relationship. When all bottom-level fault events occur and the intermediate fault event occurs, the underlying logic gate relationship between the intermediate fault event and all the corresponding bottom-level fault events is determined to be an AND gate relationship. For example, Figure 3 As shown, the underlying logic gate relationship between the station fault (intermediate fault event) and all its corresponding underlying fault events is an OR gate relationship.

[0038] Furthermore, the top-level fault events corresponding to the railway subsystem, the intermediate logic gate relationships, all intermediate fault events, the bottom-level logic gate relationships corresponding to each intermediate fault event, and all bottom-level fault events can be determined as the fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem.

[0039] In the above embodiment, the logical relationship between each fault event corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined, and all fault events and the logical relationships therein are determined as a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem, which facilitates the analysis of the railway subsystem fault and makes the analysis of the railway subsystem more objective and reliable.

[0040] In one embodiment, determining the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model includes: Determining the underlying occurrence probability of each of all the underlying fault events based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem; For each of the intermediate fault events, determining an intermediate occurrence probability of the intermediate fault event based on the underlying occurrence probability of the underlying fault event corresponding to the intermediate fault event; The top-level occurrence probability of the top-level fault event is determined based on the intermediate occurrence probabilities of all the intermediate fault events, and the top-level occurrence probability is determined as the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem.

[0041] Specifically, the underlying probability of occurrence of all underlying fault events can be determined based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem. It is easy to understand that the underlying probability of occurrence of underlying fault events can be simply calculated from the historical fault data. For example, if the historical fault data records that the switch fault occurred 100 times during the 10,000 times of use of the switch, then the underlying probability of occurrence corresponding to the switch fault is 1%.

[0042] Furthermore, for each intermediate fault event, the intermediate occurrence probability of the intermediate fault event can be determined based on the underlying occurrence probability of the underlying fault event corresponding to the intermediate fault event. In the case where the underlying logic gate relationship between the intermediate fault event and its corresponding underlying fault event is an AND gate relationship, the process can be represented by the following formula: in, Indicates an intermediate fault event The intermediate probability of occurrence is Indicates the underlying fault event The underlying probability of occurrence is Indicates an intermediate fault event The number of corresponding underlying fault events.

[0043] When the underlying logic gate relationship between the intermediate fault event and its corresponding underlying fault event is an OR gate relationship, the process can be expressed by the following formula: Furthermore, the top-level occurrence probability of the top-level fault event can be determined based on the intermediate occurrence probability of all intermediate fault events, and the top-level occurrence probability can be determined as the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem. In the case where the intermediate logic gate relationship between the top-level fault event and all intermediate fault events is an AND gate relationship, the top-level occurrence probability of the top-level fault event is It can be determined by the following formula: in, Indicates the number of all intermediate fault events corresponding to the top-level fault event.

[0044] When the intermediate logic gate relationship between the top-level fault event and all intermediate fault events is an OR gate relationship, the top-level occurrence probability of the top-level fault event is It can be determined by the following formula: In the above embodiment, the bottom-level occurrence probability of the bottom-level fault event is determined based on the historical fault data, and then the intermediate occurrence probability of the intermediate fault event is determined based on the bottom-level occurrence probability of the bottom-level fault event, and the top-level occurrence probability of the top-level fault event is further determined based on the intermediate occurrence probability of the intermediate fault event, and the third fault probability is determined as the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem, and the failure rate of the railway subsystem is accurately and quantitatively calculated, and the subsystem failure rate objectively reflects the reliability of the railway subsystem.

[0045] Step 130: Determine the train punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on the failure rates of all the subsystems, and determine the failure rates of all the subsystems and the train punctuality rate as the reliability analysis result corresponding to the railway system.

[0046] Specifically, the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system can be determined based on the failure rate of all subsystems, and then the failure rate of all subsystems and the train arrival punctuality rate can be determined as the reliability analysis result corresponding to the railway system. The subsystem failure rate can represent the number of failures of the railway subsystem within a preset time, and the subsystem failure rate reflects the reliability of the components of the railway system. The train arrival punctuality rate can represent the proportion of trains that arrive at the destination within the specified time among all trains, and the train arrival punctuality rate reflects the operational reliability of the railway system.

[0047] In the above step 130, all subsystem failure rates and train punctuality rates are determined as the reliability analysis results corresponding to the railway system, which takes into account both the inherent characteristics of the railway system and the actual operation of the railway system. The two data, subsystem failure rate and train punctuality rate, comprehensively reflect the reliability of the railway system. Through the combination of static and dynamic analysis methods, the reliability analysis results are very comprehensive.

[0048] In one embodiment, determining the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on the failure rates of all the subsystems includes: For each of the railway subsystems, determining the inverse of the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem as the failure impact time corresponding to the railway subsystem; Based on the failure rates of all the subsystems and the impact times of all the failures, a train operation simulation is performed using a Monte Carlo method to obtain a plurality of simulation operation samples; The train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on all the simulation operation samples.

[0049] Specifically, for each railway subsystem, the inverse of the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem may be determined as the failure impact time corresponding to the railway subsystem.

[0050] Furthermore, based on the failure rates of all subsystems and the impact time of all failures, the Monte Carlo method can be used to simulate train operation and obtain multiple simulation operation samples. The simulation operation samples can characterize whether there is a train failure, and in the case of a train failure, the cause and duration of the failure. Then, the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system can be determined based on all simulation operation samples.

[0051] In the above embodiment, based on the failure rates of all subsystems and the impact time of all failures, the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the train operation and obtain multiple simulation operation samples, so that the reliability analysis result is more in line with the actual situation.

[0052] In one embodiment, determining the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on all the simulation operation samples includes: Determine the faulty samples among all the simulation running samples, and for each of the faulty samples, determine the on-time arrival rate of the sample trains corresponding to the faulty samples; Determine the average of the final arrival punctuality rates of all the sample trains as the average final arrival punctuality rate of trains; The train punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on the number of the faulty samples, the number of the non-faulty samples, and the average train punctuality rate.

[0053] Specifically, the faulty samples in all simulation operation samples can be determined, and then for each faulty sample, the sample train punctuality rate corresponding to the faulty sample can be determined, that is, for the faulty sample, the proportion of all trains that arrive at the destination within the specified time is determined as the sample train punctuality rate corresponding to the faulty sample. Further, the average of the sample train punctuality rates corresponding to all faulty samples can be calculated, and the average is determined as the average train punctuality rate. Finally, the train punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system can be determined based on the number of faulty samples, the number of non-faulty samples, and the average train punctuality rate.

[0054] For example, taking the virtual line section from station U to station Z as an example, station U is the departure station, station Z is the terminal station, station U, station V, station W all include 1 main line and 2 arrival and departure lines, station X, station Y and station Z have 2 main lines and 1 arrival and departure line, wherein the main line represents the line on which the train actually runs, and the arrival and departure line represents the line on which the train enters when passengers get on and off the train. The statistics of the punctuality corresponding to a certain simulation operation sample obtained by the invention method are shown in Table 1 below: Table 1 Example of punctuality statistics

[0055] Among them, the punctuality rate of the terminal station Z is taken as the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system, that is, the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is 95.725%.

[0056] In the above embodiment, faulty samples are determined among all simulation operation samples, and for each faulty sample, the on-time arrival rate of the sample train corresponding to the faulty sample is determined, and then the average of the on-time arrival rates of all sample trains is determined as the average on-time arrival rate of the train. The average on-time arrival rate of the train can reflect the reliability of the train operation in the event of a fault, and further based on the number of faulty samples, the number of non-faulty samples, and the average on-time arrival rate of the train, the on-time arrival rate of the train corresponding to the railway system can be accurately determined.

[0057] In one embodiment, determining the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on the number of the fault samples, the number of the non-fault samples, and the average train arrival punctuality rate includes: in, represents the train arrival punctuality rate, represents the number of fault samples, represents the number of non-faulty samples, It represents the average train arrival punctuality rate.

[0058] Specifically, the simulation running samples other than the faulty samples in all the simulation running samples can be determined as non-faulty samples, and then the number of faulty samples and the number of non-faulty samples can be obtained. After determining the average train arrival punctuality rate, the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system can be further determined by the following formula: in, represents the number of trains in the simulation run sample, It can be preset as needed, and the embodiment of the present invention does not make any specific limitation here.

[0059] In the above embodiment, the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on the number of faulty samples, the number of non-faulty samples, and the average train arrival punctuality rate. The train arrival punctuality rate can dynamically reflect the reliability performance of the railway system when performing tasks, and make the reliability analysis results more in line with actual operating conditions.

[0060] The railway system reliability analysis method based on fault tree provided by the present invention obtains historical fault data corresponding to each of multiple railway subsystems in the railway system; for each railway subsystem, a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is constructed based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, and the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model; the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on the failure rate of all subsystems, and the failure rate of all subsystems and the train arrival punctuality rate are determined as the reliability analysis result corresponding to the railway system. The technical solution of the present invention determines the subsystem failure rate of each railway subsystem according to the fault tree model corresponding to each railway subsystem in the railway system, and then determines the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on the failure rate of all subsystems, and further determines the failure rate of all subsystems and the train arrival punctuality rate as the reliability analysis result. Compared with the traditional reliability analysis model, the fault tree model adopted by the present invention is not only simpler in structure, but also can obtain accurate and highly timely subsystem failure rate and train arrival punctuality rate, so as to obtain more accurate reliability analysis results. In addition, the failure rate analysis of all railway subsystems rather than components also ensures the comprehensiveness of the reliability analysis results.

[0061] The following is a description of the railway system reliability analysis device based on a fault tree provided by the present invention. The railway system reliability analysis device based on a fault tree described below and the railway system reliability analysis method based on a fault tree described above can be referred to each other.

[0062] Figure 5 FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a railway system reliability analysis device based on a fault tree provided by the present invention. Figure 5 As shown, the railway system reliability analysis device 500 based on the fault tree includes the following modules: An acquisition module 510 is used to acquire historical fault data corresponding to each of a plurality of railway subsystems in the railway system; A determination module 520 is used to construct a fault tree model corresponding to each railway subsystem based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, and to determine a subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model for each railway subsystem; The analysis module 530 is used to determine the train punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on the failure rates of all the subsystems, and determine the failure rates of all the subsystems and the train punctuality rate as the reliability analysis results corresponding to the railway system.

[0063] In one embodiment, the determination module 520 is specifically configured to: Determine the fault event corresponding to the railway subsystem as the top-level fault event; Determine a plurality of intermediate fault events corresponding to the top-level fault event, and a plurality of bottom-level fault events corresponding to each of the intermediate fault events; A fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on the top-level fault event, all the intermediate fault events and all the bottom-level fault events.

[0064] In one embodiment, the determination module 520 is further configured to: determining an intermediate logic gate relationship between the top-level fault event and all the intermediate fault events; For each of the intermediate fault events, determining a bottom-level logic gate relationship between the intermediate fault event and a corresponding bottom-level fault event; The top-level fault event, the intermediate logic gate relationship, all the intermediate fault events, the bottom-level logic gate relationship corresponding to each intermediate fault event, and all the bottom-level fault events are determined as a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem.

[0065] In one embodiment, the determination module 520 is further configured to: Determining the underlying occurrence probability of each of all the underlying fault events based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem; For each of the intermediate fault events, determining an intermediate occurrence probability of the intermediate fault event based on the underlying occurrence probability of the underlying fault event corresponding to the intermediate fault event; The top-level occurrence probability of the top-level fault event is determined based on the intermediate occurrence probabilities of all the intermediate fault events, and the top-level occurrence probability is determined as the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem.

[0066] In one embodiment, the analysis module 530 is further configured to: For each of the railway subsystems, determining the inverse of the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem as the failure impact time corresponding to the railway subsystem; Based on the failure rates of all the subsystems and the impact times of all the failures, a train operation simulation is performed using a Monte Carlo method to obtain a plurality of simulation operation samples; The train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on all the simulation operation samples.

[0067] In one embodiment, the analysis module 530 is further configured to: Determine the faulty samples among all the simulation running samples, and for each of the faulty samples, determine the on-time arrival rate of the sample trains corresponding to the faulty samples; Determine the average of the final arrival punctuality rates of all the sample trains as the average final arrival punctuality rate of trains; The train punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on the number of the faulty samples, the number of the non-faulty samples, and the average train punctuality rate.

[0068] In one embodiment, the analysis module 530 is further configured to: in, represents the train arrival punctuality rate, represents the number of fault samples, represents the number of non-faulty samples, It represents the average train arrival punctuality rate.

[0069] The railway system reliability analysis device based on the fault tree provided by the present invention obtains the historical fault data corresponding to each of the multiple railway subsystems in the railway system; for each railway subsystem, a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is constructed based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, and the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model; the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on the failure rates of all subsystems, and the failure rates of all subsystems and the train arrival punctuality rate are determined as the reliability analysis results corresponding to the railway system. The technical solution of the present invention determines the subsystem failure rate of each railway subsystem according to the fault tree model corresponding to each railway subsystem in the railway system, and then determines the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on the failure rates of all subsystems, and further determines the failure rates of all subsystems and the train arrival punctuality rate as the reliability analysis results. Compared with the traditional reliability analysis model, the fault tree model adopted by the present invention is not only simpler in structure, but also can obtain accurate and highly timely subsystem failure rates and train arrival punctuality rates, so as to obtain more accurate reliability analysis results. In addition, the failure rate analysis of all railway subsystems rather than components also ensures the comprehensiveness of the reliability analysis results.

[0070] Figure 6 An example of a physical structure diagram of an electronic device is shown in FIG. Figure 6As shown, the electronic device may include: a processor 610, a communications interface 620, a memory 630 and a communication bus 640, wherein the processor 610, the communications interface 620 and the memory 630 communicate with each other through the communication bus 640. The processor 610 may call the logic instructions in the memory 630 to execute the railway system reliability analysis method based on the fault tree, and the method includes: Obtain historical fault data corresponding to multiple railway subsystems in the railway system; For each of the railway subsystems, a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is constructed based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, and a subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model; The train punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on the failure rates of all the subsystems, and the failure rates of all the subsystems and the train punctuality rate are determined as the reliability analysis results corresponding to the railway system.

[0071] In addition, the logic instructions in the above-mentioned memory 630 can be implemented in the form of a software functional unit and can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium when it is sold or used as an independent product. Based on such an understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product is stored in a storage medium, including a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: U disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), disk or optical disk, etc. Various media that can store program codes.

[0072] On the other hand, the present invention further provides a computer program product, the computer program product comprising a computer program, the computer program can be stored in a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, when the computer program is executed by a processor, the computer can execute the railway system reliability analysis method based on the fault tree provided by the above methods, the method comprising: Obtain historical fault data corresponding to multiple railway subsystems in the railway system; For each of the railway subsystems, a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is constructed based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, and a subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model; The train punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on the failure rates of all the subsystems, and the failure rates of all the subsystems and the train punctuality rate are determined as the reliability analysis results corresponding to the railway system.

[0073] In another aspect, the present invention further provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for analyzing the reliability of a railway system based on a fault tree provided by the above methods is implemented, and the method comprises: Obtain historical fault data corresponding to multiple railway subsystems in the railway system; For each of the railway subsystems, a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is constructed based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, and a subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model; The train punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on the failure rates of all the subsystems, and the failure rates of all the subsystems and the train punctuality rate are determined as the reliability analysis results corresponding to the railway system.

[0074] The device embodiments described above are merely illustrative, wherein the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components displayed as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the scheme of this embodiment. Ordinary technicians in this field can understand and implement it without paying creative labor.

[0075] Through the description of the above implementation methods, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that each implementation method can be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform, and of course, can also be implemented by hardware. Based on this understanding, the above technical solution is essentially or the part that contributes to the prior art can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as ROM / RAM, a disk, an optical disk, etc., including a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute the methods described in each embodiment or some parts of the embodiments.

[0076] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A railway system reliability analysis method based on a fault tree, characterized in that: include: Obtain historical fault data corresponding to multiple railway subsystems in the railway system; For each of the railway subsystems, a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is constructed based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, and a subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model; The train punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on the failure rates of all the subsystems, and the failure rates of all the subsystems and the train punctuality rate are determined as the reliability analysis results corresponding to the railway system.

2. The railway system reliability analysis method based on fault tree according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The constructing a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem includes: Determine the fault event corresponding to the railway subsystem as the top-level fault event; Determine a plurality of intermediate fault events corresponding to the top-level fault event, and a plurality of bottom-level fault events corresponding to each of the intermediate fault events; A fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem is determined based on the top-level fault event, all the intermediate fault events and all the bottom-level fault events.

3. The railway system reliability analysis method based on fault tree according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The determining of the fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem based on the top-level fault event, all the intermediate fault events and all the bottom-level fault events includes: determining an intermediate logic gate relationship between the top-level fault event and all the intermediate fault events; For each of the intermediate fault events, determining a bottom-level logic gate relationship between the intermediate fault event and a corresponding bottom-level fault event; The top-level fault event, the intermediate logic gate relationship, all the intermediate fault events, the bottom-level logic gate relationship corresponding to each intermediate fault event, and all the bottom-level fault events are determined as a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem.

4. The railway system reliability analysis method based on fault tree according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The determining the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model includes: Determining the underlying occurrence probability of each of all the underlying fault events based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem; For each of the intermediate fault events, determining an intermediate occurrence probability of the intermediate fault event based on the underlying occurrence probability of the underlying fault event corresponding to the intermediate fault event; The top-level occurrence probability of the top-level fault event is determined based on the intermediate occurrence probabilities of all the intermediate fault events, and the top-level occurrence probability is determined as the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem.

5. The railway system reliability analysis method based on fault tree according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that: Determining the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on the failure rates of all the subsystems includes: For each of the railway subsystems, determining the inverse of the subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem as the failure impact time corresponding to the railway subsystem; Based on the failure rates of all the subsystems and the impact times of all the failures, a train operation simulation is performed using a Monte Carlo method to obtain a plurality of simulation operation samples; The train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on all the simulation operation samples.

6. The method for analyzing railway system reliability based on fault tree according to claim 5, characterized in that: The determining the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on all the simulation operation samples includes: Determine the faulty samples among all the simulation running samples, and for each of the faulty samples, determine the on-time arrival rate of the sample trains corresponding to the faulty samples; Determine the average of the final arrival punctuality rates of all the sample trains as the average final arrival punctuality rate of trains; The train punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system is determined based on the number of the faulty samples, the number of the non-faulty samples, and the average train punctuality rate.

7. The method for analyzing railway system reliability based on fault tree according to claim 6, characterized in that: The determining the train arrival punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on the number of the fault samples, the number of the non-fault samples, and the average train arrival punctuality rate includes: in, represents the train arrival punctuality rate, represents the number of fault samples, represents the number of non-faulty samples, It represents the average train arrival punctuality rate.

8. A railway system reliability analysis device based on a fault tree, characterized in that: include: An acquisition module, used to acquire historical fault data corresponding to each of multiple railway subsystems in the railway system; A determination module, configured to construct, for each of the railway subsystems, a fault tree model corresponding to the railway subsystem based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem, and determine a subsystem failure rate corresponding to the railway subsystem based on the historical fault data corresponding to the railway subsystem and the fault tree model; The analysis module is used to determine the train punctuality rate corresponding to the railway system based on the failure rates of all the subsystems, and determine the failure rates of all the subsystems and the train punctuality rate as the reliability analysis results corresponding to the railway system.

9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein: When the processor executes the computer program, the railway system reliability analysis method based on the fault tree as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

10. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the railway system reliability analysis method based on a fault tree as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

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