Purchase project monitoring and control method considering multiple time scales

Abstract

The invention provides a purchase project monitoring and control method considering multiple time scales, and belongs to the technical field of material purchase planning, and the method comprises the following steps: setting a long-time purchase plan according to an electric power project; selecting a purchasing object and setting a corresponding limiting condition to construct a corresponding short-time purchasing plan based on the purchasing content of the short-time purchasing plan in the corresponding centralized purchasing cycle in combination with corresponding market fluctuation information and demand change information; in the execution process, the purchase content of the next centralized purchase cycle long-time purchase plan is adjusted according to the actual execution condition, and a short-time purchase plan is made; and on the basis, long-time purchase plan updating and short-time purchase plan making are circularly executed according to a centralized purchase period until all materials are purchased. According to the invention, the long-time purchase plan is taken as the making basis of the short-time purchase plan, the material purchase content conflict is avoided, the execution condition is adapted only by adjusting the long-time purchase plan, the adjustment frequency is reduced, and the accuracy and stability of material purchase are improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of material procurement planning, and in particular to a procurement project monitoring and control method considering multiple time scales. Background Art

[0002] In the implementation of power engineering projects, the procurement link is the key link between design and construction, and its importance is self-evident. Reasonable planning of procurement projects for power projects has become a key factor in ensuring project success and improving overall benefits. In order to cope with the complex procurement needs of large-scale and complex power projects, modern power project management has begun to pay attention to the reasonable planning of procurement projects, and further formulate detailed procurement plans, clarify procurement needs, time nodes and budget control to ensure that the required equipment, materials and technical services are in place on time, according to quality and quantity.

[0003] However, most of the existing procurement plans are formulated on a long time scale such as years, which often involve demand forecasting and resource allocation for a longer time range, with less room for adjustment and relatively stable. They can establish stable relationships with suppliers through long-term cooperation to ensure the continuity and stability of supply. However, the long-term procurement plan has low flexibility during execution and cannot quickly adapt to changes in the market environment. In the face of market fluctuations or demand changes, it cannot be adjusted in time, the accuracy is not high, and it is easy to cause cost increases. The procurement plan based on short time scales such as days, weeks, and months can flexibly adapt to market fluctuations and demand changes, and because of its short forecast cycle, the forecast accuracy of material demand is high, which can ensure the accuracy of the procurement plan. However, in the implementation process, it faces the problem of frequent replacement of procurement plans, the instability of the supply chain increases, and important materials are prone to be missing, which affects the progress of the project. It can be seen that the procurement plan formulated on a single time scale cannot take into account the accuracy and stability of material procurement.

[0004] In the related art, attempts are made to overcome the above problems by establishing procurement plans of long time scale and short time scale respectively, combining the procurement plans of the two time scales, and jointly conducting material procurement, so as to take into account the accuracy and stability of material procurement of power engineering projects. However, although the procurement plans of different time scales have different focuses and different formulation bases, since they are facing the material procurement needs of the same power project, there are inevitable conflicts in the content of the formulated procurement plans in terms of procurement type and quantity, which are prone to budget overruns, material supply chain breaks or inventory accumulation, which will aggravate the problem of accuracy of material procurement. In addition, during the execution of procurement plans of different time scales, it is necessary to regularly adjust the content of subsequent procurement plans according to the actual material procurement situation, and promptly deal with abnormal material procurement situations. Since the material procurement time nodes set by procurement plans of different time scales are not the same, there is also a time gap in the adjustment operation of the two procurement plans, which can easily lead to a decrease in the stability of material procurement due to too frequent plan adjustments. Even if the procurement plans of long time scale and short time scale are combined, the lack of accuracy and stability of material procurement will still be caused by the conflict of procurement content and the frequency of plan adjustments. It can be seen from this that although the method of procuring materials by combining procurement plans with different time scales can take into account both the accuracy and stability of material procurement, in the actual implementation process, it is easy to have conflicts in procurement content between procurement plans and excessive frequency of plan adjustments, and the accuracy and stability of material procurement are low. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the problems of conflicts in procurement content and too frequent plan adjustments that are prone to occur when procuring materials in the prior art to take into account the accuracy and stability of material procurement by combining procurement plans of different time scales, and the shortcomings of low accuracy and stability of material procurement. A procurement project monitoring and control method considering multiple time scales is provided, which can set a long-term procurement plan of a long time scale, and at the same time, according to the current market fluctuation information and demand change information, set the procurement objects and constraints of a short-term procurement plan of a short time scale based on the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan, avoid material procurement conflicts and the like, improve the accuracy of material procurement, and in the process of material procurement according to procurement plans of two time scales, only adjust the long-term procurement plan according to the actual execution situation, and then formulate subsequent short-term procurement plans according to the adjusted long-term procurement plan, thereby reducing the adjustment frequency of the procurement plan and improving the stability of material procurement.

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions: Consider the procurement project monitoring and control methods at multiple time scales, including: According to the corresponding power projects, set up long-term procurement plans with a long time scale for procurement projects; Based on the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan in the first centralized procurement cycle, combined with the current market fluctuation information and demand change information, select procurement objects and set corresponding restrictions to build the corresponding short-term procurement plan with a short time scale; Implement long-term and short-term procurement plans; Obtain the actual implementation status of the long-term and short-term procurement plans in the current centralized procurement cycle, adjust the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle according to the actual implementation status, and formulate the short-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle accordingly; According to the centralized procurement cycle, long-term procurement plan updates and short-term procurement plan formulation are cyclically executed until the procurement of materials for all centralized procurement cycles is completed according to the corresponding long-term procurement plans and short-term procurement plans.

[0007] When setting a long-term procurement plan with a long time scale, a corresponding short-term procurement plan with a short time scale is simultaneously formulated in response to the current market fluctuation information and demand change information, so as to achieve the purpose of taking into account the accuracy and stability of material procurement. And for the formulated short-term procurement plan with a short time scale, the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan with a long time scale is used as the basis for its formulation, and the corresponding procurement objects and restrictions are set to ensure that there will be no conflicts in procurement content between the formulated long-term procurement plan and the short-term procurement plan, thereby improving the accuracy of material procurement. At the same time, for the adjustment of the procurement plan during the execution process, only the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan is adjusted, and the procurement content formulation of the subsequent short-term procurement plan can also adapt to the adjustment of the long-term procurement plan and make corresponding adjustments, which can also achieve the purpose of handling abnormal material procurement situations, and also reduce the adjustment frequency of the procurement plan and improve the stability of material procurement.

[0008] Furthermore, the procurement content in the first centralized procurement cycle based on the long-term procurement plan is combined with the current market fluctuation information and demand change information to select procurement objects and set corresponding constraints to construct a corresponding short-term procurement plan with a short time scale, including: Combined with the corresponding power projects, determine the adjustable materials and their purchase volume fluctuation range according to the procurement content of the first centralized procurement cycle; Select purchase targets based on adjustable materials, market fluctuation information, and demand change information; Procurement restrictions are set based on the fluctuation range of material procurement volume and demand change information corresponding to the procurement object. Combined with the market fluctuation information corresponding to the procurement object, all short-term procurement plans within the corresponding time period of the first centralized procurement cycle are constructed on a short time scale.

[0009] Before formulating a short-term procurement plan, the materials that can be adjusted in the long-term procurement plan are screened to avoid conflicts in procurement content between the long-term procurement plan and the short-term procurement plan, and to avoid subsequent impacts on the use of purchased materials in the power project. In order to ensure the efficiency and accuracy of the formulation of the short-term procurement plan, the procurement objects participating in the short-term procurement plan are further selected from the screened materials based on market fluctuation information.

[0010] Furthermore, the adjustable materials and their purchase volume fluctuation ranges are determined in combination with the corresponding power project according to the purchase content of the first centralized purchase cycle, including: Based on the procurement content of the first centralized procurement cycle, retrieve the multi-dimensional data of each procurement material, calculate the adjustable capacity of each procurement material, and divide the procurement materials into fixed materials and adjustable materials based on the corresponding adjustable capacity and importance in the power project; Get the current inventory quantity of adjustable materials, and calculate the purchase quantity upper limit of adjustable materials based on the current inventory quantity of adjustable materials and the corresponding maximum inventory quantity; Determine the end time of the first centralized procurement cycle, and predict the minimum inventory of adjustable materials in the first centralized procurement cycle in combination with the corresponding power project. Calculate the lower limit of the purchase volume of adjustable materials based on the predicted result of the minimum inventory and the current inventory of adjustable materials. Set the purchase volume fluctuation range of adjustable materials based on the purchase volume upper limit and purchase volume lower limit.

[0011] Identify the procurement objects that can participate in the formulation of short-term procurement plans in the long-term procurement plan, and adjust the procurement methods only for the procurement materials that can be adjusted, so as to improve the efficiency of short-term procurement objects and reduce the impact on the execution of long-term procurement plans. In addition, considering the limitations of material storage and available budget, further limit the corresponding procurement volume fluctuation range, plan the corresponding procurement plan within the corresponding fluctuation range, and ensure the accuracy of the formulation of subsequent short-term procurement plans.

[0012] Furthermore, the selecting of procurement objects according to adjustable materials, market fluctuation information and demand change information includes: Predict the price change curve of each adjustable material in the first centralized procurement cycle based on market fluctuation information, determine the price fluctuation curve of each adjustable material in combination with the purchase price of each adjustable material in the long-term procurement plan, and calculate the average fluctuating price of each adjustable material; Calculate the adjustment cost of each adjustable material purchase method and compare the adjustment cost with the corresponding average fluctuating price; Determine the new materials for the procurement project based on the demand change information, and purchase the new materials and the adjustable materials whose adjustment costs are lower than the average fluctuating price.

[0013] In order to improve the accuracy of material procurement and reduce procurement costs, determine the price fluctuations of each adjustable material to select materials that can reduce costs by adjusting procurement methods. And select adjustable materials with adjustment costs lower than the average fluctuating price as one of the procurement objects of the short-term procurement plan to ensure the material procurement efficiency of the short-term procurement plan.

[0014] Furthermore, the procurement restriction conditions are set based on the corresponding material procurement volume fluctuation range and demand change information, and combined with the corresponding market fluctuation information, all short-term procurement plans within the corresponding time period of the first centralized procurement cycle are constructed on a short-term scale, including: Determine the reduced materials according to the demand change information, determine the planned purchase quantity of the reduced materials and the adjustable materials in the purchase objects in the first centralized purchase cycle of the long-term purchase plan, and calculate the first budget data in combination with the corresponding predetermined prices; Determine the newly added materials and their planned purchase quantities based on the demand change information, and set purchase restriction conditions based on the planned purchase quantities of the newly added materials, the fluctuation range of the purchase quantities of the adjustable materials in the purchase objects, and the first budget data; The price and supply information of the procurement objects in the first centralized procurement cycle are predicted based on the corresponding market fluctuation information. Combined with the procurement constraints, all short-term procurement plans in the corresponding time period of the first centralized procurement cycle are formulated through a random dynamic programming algorithm.

[0015] In order to ensure the reliability and accuracy of the short-term procurement plan, when constructing the short-term procurement plan, the corresponding procurement restrictions are set based on the available budget conditions and material procurement quantity restrictions. Then, combined with the specific prices and supply quantities, the short-term procurement plan is further formulated using the random dynamic programming algorithm to adapt to the market situation of constantly fluctuating prices and supply quantities while meeting the material needs of the power project.

[0016] Furthermore, the price information and supply quantity information of the procurement objects in the first centralized procurement cycle are predicted based on the corresponding market fluctuation information, and all short-term procurement plans in the corresponding time period of the first centralized procurement cycle are formulated through a random dynamic programming algorithm in combination with procurement restrictions, including: Based on the time scale of short-term procurement plan formulation, the state variables, decision variables, state transition equations and random parameters of the stochastic dynamic programming algorithm are set; Taking the lowest total procurement cost of all short-term procurement plans in the first centralized procurement cycle as the objective function and procurement restrictions as constraints, a stochastic dynamic programming model is constructed. The random dynamic programming model is solved by the strategy iteration method to obtain all short-term procurement plans within the corresponding time period of the first centralized procurement cycle.

[0017] Furthermore, it also includes: Determine the reduction of materials based on demand change information, match the reduced materials with the long-term procurement plan, and adjust the corresponding procurement content of the long-term procurement plan.

[0018] When there is a reduction in materials, if the previous long-term procurement plan is still maintained to carry out the corresponding material procurement, it will cause a waste of budget and excess storage of materials. Considering that the budget for the reduced materials can be absorbed by the short-term procurement plan, when the reduction in materials occurs, the procurement content of the corresponding part in the long-term procurement plan should be adjusted to ensure the efficiency of material procurement.

[0019] Furthermore, the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle is adjusted according to the actual implementation situation, and a short-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle is formulated accordingly, including: Determine the deviation information of purchased materials based on the actual implementation situation, and match the deviation information with the purchase content of the long-term purchase plan of the next centralized purchase cycle; Based on the matching results, adjust the planned purchase quantity of each purchase material in the long-term purchase plan of the next centralized purchase cycle; Based on the procurement content of the adjusted long-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle, combined with the current market fluctuation information and demand change information, the short-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle will be re-formulated.

[0020] Considering that both procurement plans may have execution deviations during the execution process, the short-term procurement plan is formulated based on the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan, and can be adaptively adjusted according to the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan. Therefore, when adjusting the procurement plan, the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan is adjusted, and then the subsequent short-term procurement plan is formulated, which can make up for abnormal situations such as execution deviations in the execution process, and can also reduce the adjustment frequency of the procurement plan to ensure the stability of material procurement.

[0021] Furthermore, the cyclic execution of long-term procurement plan updating and short-term procurement plan formulation according to the centralized procurement cycle also includes: Continuously record the change information of purchase price and purchase quantity of each purchase object in the completed short-term purchase plan; The adjustable capacity of the corresponding procurement objects is updated based on the procurement price change information and procurement volume information. When the long-term procurement plan is updated and the corresponding short-term procurement plan is formulated, the procurement objects of the short-term procurement plan are reselected based on the updated adjustable capacity.

[0022] The adjustable capacity of procurement objects is updated in real time to further improve the efficiency and accuracy of subsequent short-term procurement plans.

[0023] Furthermore, it also includes: Obtain the total procurement content of all short-term procurement plans within the corresponding centralized procurement cycle, and adjust the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan in the corresponding centralized procurement cycle based on the total procurement content.

[0024] Since most of the purchase objects of the short-term procurement plan are the materials purchased in the long-term procurement plan, for the materials purchased using the short-term procurement plan, the procurement content in the long-term procurement plan needs to be adjusted accordingly to avoid problems such as duplicate procurement, so as to ensure the accuracy of material procurement.

[0025] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: (1) When setting a long-term procurement plan with a long time scale, a corresponding short-term procurement plan with a short time scale is simultaneously formulated in response to the current market fluctuation information and demand change information, so as to achieve the purpose of taking into account both the accuracy and stability of material procurement. Moreover, for the formulated short-term procurement plan with a short time scale, the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan with a long time scale is used as the basis for its formulation, and the corresponding procurement objects and restrictions are set to ensure that there will be no conflict in procurement content between the formulated long-term procurement plan and the short-term procurement plan, thereby improving the accuracy of material procurement. At the same time, for the adjustment of the procurement plan during the execution process, only the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan is adjusted, and the procurement content formulation of the subsequent short-term procurement plan can also adapt to the adjustment of the long-term procurement plan and make corresponding adjustments, which can also achieve the purpose of handling abnormal material procurement situations, and also reduce the adjustment frequency of the procurement plan and improve the stability of material procurement.

[0026] (2) Before formulating a short-term procurement plan, first screen the materials that can be adjusted in the long-term procurement plan to avoid conflicts in procurement content between the long-term procurement plan and the short-term procurement plan, and avoid subsequent impacts on the use of purchased materials in the power project. And further, based on market fluctuation information, select the materials with adjustable capacity from the screened materials to participate in the short-term procurement plan to ensure the efficiency and accuracy of the formulation of the short-term procurement plan. And set corresponding procurement restrictions based on the available budget conditions and material procurement quantity restrictions, and then combine the specific prices and supply quantities to further use the random dynamic programming algorithm to formulate a short-term procurement plan, so as to meet the material needs of the power project and adapt to the market situation of fluctuating prices and supply quantities.

[0027] (3) Considering that both procurement plans may have execution deviations during the execution process, the short-term procurement plan is formulated based on the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan and can be adaptively adjusted according to the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan. Therefore, when adjusting the procurement plan, the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan is adjusted, and then the subsequent short-term procurement plan is formulated, which can make up for abnormal situations such as execution deviations in the execution process, and can also reduce the adjustment frequency of the procurement plan and ensure the stability of material procurement. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0028] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of a process of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0029] The present invention is further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0030] Example: A procurement project monitoring and control method considering multiple time scales, such as Figure 1 As shown, including: According to the corresponding power projects, set up long-term procurement plans with a long time scale for procurement projects; Based on the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan in the first centralized procurement cycle, combined with the current market fluctuation information and demand change information, select procurement objects and set corresponding restrictions to build the corresponding short-term procurement plan with a short time scale; Implement long-term and short-term procurement plans; Obtain the actual implementation status of the long-term and short-term procurement plans in the current centralized procurement cycle, adjust the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle according to the actual implementation status, and formulate the short-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle accordingly; According to the centralized procurement cycle, long-term procurement plan updates and short-term procurement plan formulation are cyclically executed until the procurement of materials for all centralized procurement cycles is completed according to the corresponding long-term procurement plans and short-term procurement plans.

[0031] In power project management, procurement plan is one of the key links to ensure the smooth progress of the project. The content of procurement plan usually includes key elements such as scope, time, quantity, quality, etc. of the procurement project, which can play a guiding and restraining role in the implementation of the procurement project.

[0032] For large and complex power projects, long-term procurement plans over a long period of time can not only ensure a stable supply of materials and services required for the project, but also effectively control costs, improve the overall benefits of the project, and effectively guarantee the execution benefits of subsequent procurement projects.

[0033] The first task of long-term procurement planning is to conduct demand forecasting and analysis, which is not only related to the accurate acquisition of materials and services required for the project, but also directly affects the cost, progress and quality of the project.

[0034] Considering that different types of power projects use different types of materials and services during their construction, when building a long-term procurement plan, we first need to have a comprehensive understanding of the type, scale, geographical location, technical requirements, and construction period of the power project. The power projects described in this embodiment include power generation projects, power transmission and distribution projects, or power grid transformation projects.

[0035] After determining the specific project information of the power project, the types of materials and services required for the power project can be clarified, such as power generation equipment, power transmission and distribution equipment, building materials, operation and maintenance services, etc., and then the quantity and specific specifications of the materials and services required for the project can be predicted in combination with the construction goals of the power project. Then, based on the project's construction schedule, the delivery time of each material and service can be further predicted.

[0036] Among them, forecasts on the quantity, specific specifications, and delivery time of materials and services can be carried out through statistical analysis, trend forecasting, and other methods.

[0037] After clarifying the needs, potential suppliers need to be evaluated and selected, including examinations of the supplier's qualifications, production capacity, product quality, price, delivery capability, after-sales service, etc. Finally, based on demand forecasts and supplier evaluation results, corresponding procurement strategies are formulated to build a complete long-term procurement plan over a long period of time.

[0038] The above-mentioned procurement strategies include the selection of procurement methods, the signing of procurement contracts, price negotiation and determination, and the arrangement of delivery dates, etc. Among them, considering that the construction of power projects is progressive, there are multiple construction cycles, and the construction focus and types of materials used in each construction cycle are also different, this feature will also be taken into account when setting the procurement method of the long-term procurement plan, and the corresponding material procurement will be carried out in a periodic centralized procurement manner, and the procurement content in each centralized procurement cycle will also be different according to the needs of the power project.

[0039] Considering the impact of market fluctuations and demand changes on material procurement, while setting up a long-term procurement plan, based on the current market fluctuation information and demand change information, the procurement objects are selected and corresponding restrictions are set based on the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan to build a corresponding short-term procurement plan. This can not only achieve the purpose of taking into account the accuracy and stability of material procurement, but also avoid conflicts in procurement content between different procurement plans, thereby improving the accuracy of material procurement.

[0040] The current long-term procurement plan's procurement content can directly reflect the current material needs of the power project. Although the short-term procurement plan is formulated to adapt to market fluctuations and demand changes, its ultimate goal is to meet the current material needs of the power project together with the long-term procurement plan. Therefore, for the short-term procurement plan of the short time scale, it is necessary to start from the current procurement content of the long-term procurement plan and formulate it, so as to avoid conflicts in procurement content while meeting the material needs of the power project.

[0041] And considering that the formulation cycle of short-term procurement plans is relatively short, if all short-term procurement plans are formulated in advance, the current actual situation still cannot be taken into account. Combined with the fact that the procurement content of long-term procurement plans may be different in different centralized procurement cycles, this embodiment uses the centralized procurement cycle of the long-term procurement plan as the planning target period of the short-term procurement plan to ensure the reliability of the short-term procurement plan.

[0042] Moreover, during the actual implementation of the procurement plan, market fluctuations and demand changes fluctuate in real time, and the actual implementation may deviate from expectations. Therefore, after completing the material procurement task of a centralized procurement cycle, the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle is adjusted based on the actual implementation situation, and then the short-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle is formulated in combination with the market fluctuation information and demand changes at the corresponding time, so as to further ensure the accuracy of the short-term procurement plan. Moreover, this method of only adjusting the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan can also reduce the frequency of adjustment of the procurement plan and improve the stability of material procurement.

[0043] The short-term procurement plan formulated in the first centralized procurement cycle serves as the basis for updating the remaining long-term procurement plans and formulating short-term procurement plans. Its accuracy is directly related to the adjustment of subsequent long-term procurement plans and the formulation of short-term procurement plans.

[0044] Specifically, the procurement content of the first centralized procurement cycle based on the long-term procurement plan described in this embodiment is combined with the current market fluctuation information and demand change information to select procurement objects and set corresponding restriction conditions to construct a corresponding short-term procurement plan with a short time scale, including: Combined with the corresponding power projects, determine the adjustable materials and their purchase volume fluctuation range according to the procurement content of the first centralized procurement cycle; Select purchase targets based on adjustable materials, market fluctuation information, and demand change information; Procurement restrictions are set based on the fluctuation range of material procurement volume and demand change information corresponding to the procurement object. Combined with the market fluctuation information corresponding to the procurement object, all short-term procurement plans within the corresponding time period of the first centralized procurement cycle are constructed on a short time scale.

[0045] Considering the complexity of the types of materials in power projects, not all materials have the ability to adapt to procurement adjustment operations. Some materials in power projects have characteristics such as high importance, customized requirements, market supply restrictions and contract constraints, such as generators, transformers and circuit breakers that play an important role in power projects, specific insulating materials, conductive materials and other irreplaceable customized materials. When purchasing such materials, strict review is often required to ensure that they meet project requirements, and the procurement method cannot be adjusted at will. For such materials, they cannot be separated from the long-term procurement plan as the procurement object of the short-term procurement plan.

[0046] Therefore, before formulating a short-term procurement plan, first screen the materials that can be adjusted in the long-term procurement plan to avoid subsequent impacts on the implementation of the power project.

[0047] Moreover, for materials that can be adjusted, that is, materials with adjustable capacity, they will not necessarily be affected by current market fluctuation information or demand changes during the current centralized procurement cycle. In order to ensure the efficiency and accuracy of short-term procurement plans, procurement objects participating in short-term procurement plans are further selected from the screened materials based on market fluctuation information.

[0048] Specifically, the adjustable materials and their purchase volume fluctuation ranges are determined in combination with the corresponding power projects according to the purchase contents of the first centralized purchase cycle, including: Based on the procurement content of the first centralized procurement cycle, retrieve the multi-dimensional data of each procurement material, calculate the adjustable capacity of each procurement material, and divide the procurement materials into fixed materials and adjustable materials based on the corresponding adjustable capacity and importance in the power project; Get the current inventory quantity of adjustable materials, and calculate the purchase quantity upper limit of adjustable materials based on the current inventory quantity of adjustable materials and the corresponding maximum inventory quantity; Determine the end time of the first centralized procurement cycle, and predict the minimum inventory of adjustable materials in the first centralized procurement cycle in combination with the corresponding power project. Calculate the lower limit of the purchase volume of adjustable materials based on the predicted result of the minimum inventory and the current inventory of adjustable materials. Set the purchase volume fluctuation range of adjustable materials based on the purchase volume upper limit and purchase volume lower limit.

[0049] For the procurement contents in the long-term procurement plan, its adjustable capacity is evaluated from multiple dimensions. Then, combined with the importance of each procurement material in the power project, the adjustable materials that can be separated from the long-term procurement plan and used as the procurement objects of the short-term procurement plan are screened out.

[0050] When quantitatively evaluating the adjustable capacity of each purchased material, we first retrieve the corresponding data and select the corresponding evaluation indicators from dimensions such as the stability of material supply, the availability of substitutes, and the flexibility of inventory management.

[0051] Specifically, in order to quantify the adjustable capacity of purchased materials, relevant data such as material supply history data, market competition status data, substitute data and inventory management data corresponding to each purchased material are collected. Among them, material supply history data includes data such as historical purchase volume of materials, number of suppliers, number of supply interruptions, etc., market competition status data includes data such as supplier's market share, price competition degree, threat of new entrants, etc., substitute data includes data such as type, performance, price, supply stability, etc. of substitutes, and inventory management data includes inventory level, inventory turnover rate, inventory cost, etc.

[0052] Supply stability index, market competition index, substitute availability index and inventory management flexibility index are set as evaluation indicators of adjustable capacity. Then, through weighted scoring, multivariate regression, neural network and other methods, the corresponding evaluation model is constructed, and the various types of collected data are input into the evaluation model to output the evaluation results of the adjustable capacity of each purchased material.

[0053] However, among the types of materials with high adjustable capacity, there may also be materials that are relatively important and whose procurement methods cannot be changed at will. Therefore, after obtaining the adjustable capacity, the purchased materials are further divided into fixed materials and adjustable materials according to their importance in the power project. Fixed materials are materials that must be procured according to the long-term procurement plan, while adjustable materials are materials that can be changed to short-term procurement plans for procurement.

[0054] In addition, considering that the execution cycle of power projects is long, the number of materials used is large, and the storage space for materials is generally limited, in order to adapt to such situations, most materials are replenished in stages. When planning procurement projects, the specific space for material storage will be taken into consideration, and the maximum inventory that can be stored for each purchased material will be set accordingly to avoid wasting storage space. When formulating short-term procurement plans in the future, the storage capacity of materials must also be considered to avoid the problem of over-purchase and inability to store.

[0055] During the implementation of the power project, in order to ensure the normal operation of the power project, it is necessary to ensure that each purchased material has a certain reserve. Therefore, the use of each material by the power project can be predicted through a long-term procurement plan, and then combined with the current inventory situation, the minimum purchase quantity of each adjustable material that needs to be purchased can be determined to ensure that the long-term procurement plan and the short-term procurement plan are coordinated to meet the normal operation of the power project.

[0056] The purpose of formulating a short-term procurement plan is to adapt to market fluctuations and demand changes. Therefore, short-term procurement plans are only formulated for materials that are affected by market fluctuations and demand changes. Based on this, from the selected adjustable materials, the procurement objects are further selected in combination with the market fluctuation information and demand change information. Specifically, the procurement objects are selected based on the adjustable materials, market fluctuation information and demand change information, including: Predict the price change curve of each adjustable material in the first centralized procurement cycle based on market fluctuation information, determine the price fluctuation curve of each adjustable material in combination with the purchase price of each adjustable material in the long-term procurement plan, and calculate the average fluctuating price of each adjustable material; Calculate the adjustment cost of each adjustable material purchase method and compare the adjustment cost with the corresponding average fluctuating price; Determine the new materials for the procurement project based on the demand change information, and purchase the new materials and the adjustable materials whose adjustment costs are lower than the average fluctuating price.

[0057] Market fluctuations are mostly reflected in fluctuations in supply and prices, and there is a corresponding relationship between prices and supply. When the supply is low, prices will increase accordingly, and when the supply is sufficient, prices will also decrease accordingly. Therefore, in this embodiment, prices are used as the evaluation dimension, and the price change curve of each adjustable material in the first centralized procurement cycle is accurately predicted based on market fluctuation information, and compared with the purchase price in the long-term procurement plan. When the market price is lower than the purchase price, by adjusting the purchase time and purchase quantity, it is highly likely that the purpose of reducing costs and improving procurement efficiency can be achieved. Therefore, this embodiment specifically uses the price fluctuations between the purchase price and the market price to reflect whether each adjustable material has the potential to reduce procurement costs and improve procurement efficiency by adjusting procurement behavior in the current cycle, and provides data support for the selection of subsequent procurement objects.

[0058] Considering that procurement adjustments such as reselecting suppliers, adjusting delivery dates, and adjusting procurement quantities will also generate corresponding adjustment costs, if the adjustment costs are higher than the costs saved by modifying the procurement method, it will affect the efficiency of material procurement. Therefore, only adjustable materials with adjustment costs lower than the average fluctuating price are selected as procurement objects.

[0059] However, if the market prices are all higher than the purchase price, then it is obviously not suitable as a purchase object for a short-term purchase plan. Therefore, in this embodiment, the average fluctuating price is calculated to compare with the adjustment cost. When selecting the purchase object, only the adjustable materials whose market prices are lower than the purchase price are selected.

[0060] In addition to adapting to market fluctuations, short-term procurement plans also need to consider changes in materials caused by changes in project requirements. With the development of power projects, there may be unplanned material needs. For these new materials, since they are not known in advance, there is no corresponding procurement content in the long-term procurement plan, and they can only be purchased through short-term procurement plans. Therefore, the new materials can be directly used as the procurement objects of the short-term procurement plan.

[0061] After determining the procurement object, you can formulate the corresponding short-term procurement plan based on the current procurement conditions. Specifically, set procurement restrictions based on the corresponding material procurement volume fluctuation range and demand change information, and combine the corresponding market fluctuation information to build all short-term procurement plans within the corresponding time period of the first centralized procurement cycle in a short time scale, including: Determine the reduced materials according to the demand change information, determine the planned purchase quantity of the reduced materials and the adjustable materials in the purchase objects in the first centralized purchase cycle of the long-term purchase plan, and calculate the first budget data in combination with the corresponding predetermined prices; Determine the newly added materials and their planned purchase quantities based on the demand change information, and set purchase restriction conditions based on the planned purchase quantities of the newly added materials, the fluctuation range of the purchase quantities of the adjustable materials in the purchase objects, and the first budget data; The price and supply information of the procurement objects in the first centralized procurement cycle are predicted based on the corresponding market fluctuation information. Combined with the procurement constraints, all short-term procurement plans in the corresponding time period of the first centralized procurement cycle are formulated through a random dynamic programming algorithm.

[0062] Since the short-term procurement plan is formulated on the basis of the long-term procurement plan, and the predetermined conditions such as the budget and inventory of the procurement project are fixed, the total budget and total inventory of the long-term procurement plan and the short-term procurement plan must meet the restrictions of the procurement project. Therefore, in order to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the short-term procurement plan, after selecting the adjustable materials, obtain the corresponding budget data for the adjustable materials in the long-term procurement plan. At the same time, considering that the demand changes of the power project may also include the removal of some unnecessary materials due to the optimization of the construction process, the budget of this part of the reduced materials can also be used as the budget data of the short-term procurement plan. Combined with the budget data corresponding to the adjustable data, the overall budget for formulating the short-term procurement plan can be known.

[0063] Combined with the relevant purchase quantity restrictions of the purchased objects, the budget and purchase quantity restrictions for formulating short-term purchase plans can be determined. Then, based on the corresponding market fluctuation information, the price information and supply quantity information of the purchased objects in the first centralized purchase cycle are predicted to determine the market environment faced by formulating short-term purchase plans in the first centralized purchase cycle.

[0064] Specifically, the price changes and supply changes of the procurement objects in the past period of time are determined through market fluctuation information, and the relevant characteristic data of prices and supply quantities are selected from them. Then, through time series analysis, machine learning and other methods, the prices and supply quantities in the first centralized procurement cycle are predicted based on the selected characteristic data.

[0065] And considering that material prices may change dynamically, this embodiment specifically uses a random dynamic programming algorithm to formulate a short-term procurement plan. The random dynamic programming algorithm can handle procurement problems with time series characteristics and can determine the optimal procurement plan under different price fluctuations.

[0066] The method of predicting the price information and supply quantity information of the procurement objects in the first centralized procurement cycle based on the corresponding market fluctuation information, and formulating all short-term procurement plans in the corresponding time period of the first centralized procurement cycle through a random dynamic programming algorithm in combination with procurement restrictions, includes: Based on the time scale of short-term procurement plan formulation, the state variables, decision variables, state transition equations and random parameters of the stochastic dynamic programming algorithm are set; Taking the lowest total procurement cost of all short-term procurement plans in the first centralized procurement cycle as the objective function and procurement restrictions as constraints, a stochastic dynamic programming model is constructed. The random dynamic programming model is solved by the strategy iteration method to obtain all short-term procurement plans within the corresponding time period of the first centralized procurement cycle.

[0067] Among them, the state variables of the randomized dynamic programming algorithm are used to describe the state of the system at a certain stage, including the procurement execution time point, current inventory and budget funds of each short-term procurement plan in the current centralized procurement cycle.

[0068] Decision variables are variables that need to be determined at each stage, which determine how the system moves from the current state to the next state, including the number of procurement objects at each procurement execution time point.

[0069] The state transfer equation is mainly used to describe the process of system state transferring from one stage to the next stage, and can be set according to specific inventory levels, budget conditions and procurement volumes.

[0070] Random parameters are used to reflect fluctuations in prices and supply quantities, and can be set specifically by the mean and variance of the predicted price and supply quantity information.

[0071] After completing the parameter setting of the random dynamic programming algorithm, the minimum total procurement cost of all short-term procurement plans in the first centralized procurement cycle is taken as the objective function and the procurement restrictions are taken as constraints. A random dynamic programming model is constructed and further solved through the strategy iteration method to obtain the optimal short-term procurement plan allocation.

[0072] Among them, the specific steps of strategy iteration to solve the stochastic dynamic programming model include: Initialize a strategy, that is, each procurement execution time point corresponds to the short-term procurement plan procurement object and its procurement quantity.

[0073] Then, for each procurement execution time point and each possible combination of inventory and budget balance, calculate the expected cost under this strategy.

[0074] According to the expected cost update strategy, the optimal purchase quantity is selected at each purchase execution time point and for each possible combination of inventory quantity and budget balance.

[0075] Repeat the above steps until the strategy no longer changes or the predetermined number of iterations is reached.

[0076] After determining to reduce materials based on demand change information, if the reduced materials continue to be purchased according to the procurement content corresponding to the original long-term procurement plan, it will inevitably cause waste of resources. Therefore, after identifying the reduced materials, the reduced materials will be matched with the long-term procurement plan, and the corresponding procurement content of the long-term procurement plan will be adjusted.

[0077] Considering that both procurement plans may have execution deviations during the implementation process, the two procurement plans are adjusted in accordance with the actual implementation situation. Specifically, the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle is adjusted according to the actual implementation situation, and a short-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle is formulated accordingly, including: Determine the deviation information of purchased materials based on the actual implementation situation, and match the deviation information with the purchase content of the long-term purchase plan of the next centralized purchase cycle; Based on the matching results, adjust the planned purchase quantity of each purchase material in the long-term purchase plan of the next centralized purchase cycle; Based on the procurement content of the adjusted long-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle, combined with the current market fluctuation information and demand change information, the short-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle will be re-formulated.

[0078] First, according to the actual implementation situation, the missing or excess purchase quantities in the long-term and short-term procurement plans are respectively increased or decreased based on the corresponding procurement materials. The missing or excessive replenishment of materials in the actual implementation of the short-term procurement plan can also be compensated by adjusting the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan.

[0079] For purchased materials whose purchase volume in the current cycle is less than the predetermined plan, the planned purchase volume of the corresponding purchased materials in the long-term purchase plan of the next centralized procurement cycle will be increased to avoid insufficient supply of materials.

[0080] For purchased materials whose purchase volume exceeds the predetermined plan in the current cycle, the planned purchase volume of the corresponding purchased materials in the long-term purchase plan of the next centralized procurement cycle will be reduced to avoid exceeding the inventory limit of material storage and causing waste of resources.

[0081] Based on the updated long-term procurement plan and combined with the current market fluctuation information and demand change information, the short-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle will be re-formulated to ensure that the material needs of the power project can be met and the efficiency of material procurement can be improved.

[0082] The cyclical execution of long-term procurement plan updates and short-term procurement plan formulation according to the centralized procurement cycle also includes: Continuously record the change information of purchase price and purchase quantity of each purchase object in the completed short-term purchase plan; The adjustable capacity of the corresponding procurement objects is updated based on the procurement price change information and procurement volume information. When the long-term procurement plan is updated and the corresponding short-term procurement plan is formulated, the procurement objects of the short-term procurement plan are reselected based on the updated adjustable capacity.

[0083] Taking into account the fact that the prices and supply volumes of some materials fluctuate greatly when they are first launched on the market and then tend to stabilize, it is necessary to continuously record the purchase price change information and purchase volume change information of each purchase object in the completed short-term procurement plan. If the purchase price and purchase volume tend to be stable, the degree to which they are affected by market fluctuations becomes lower, and the adjustable capacity also decreases accordingly. For stable purchase prices and purchase volumes, corresponding procurement operations can be executed according to the long-term procurement plan to optimize procurement efficiency.

[0084] By updating the adjustable capabilities, it is also possible to more accurately select the procurement objects of the short-term procurement plan, thereby improving the efficiency and accuracy of the formulation of the short-term procurement plan.

[0085] After completing the formulation of a short-term procurement plan in a centralized procurement cycle, since the procurement objects of the short-term procurement plan are basically the procurement materials in the long-term procurement plan, after formulating other procurement methods, the original procurement content in the long-term procurement plan needs to be adjusted to avoid duplicate procurement.

[0086] Specifically, the total procurement content of all short-term procurement plans within the corresponding centralized procurement cycle is obtained, and the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan in the corresponding centralized procurement cycle is adjusted based on the total procurement content.

[0087] When the long-term procurement plan is updated cyclically according to the centralized procurement cycle, and the corresponding short-term procurement plan is formulated to execute material procurement, each time the execution of the long-term procurement plan and the short-term procurement plan is completed, it is determined whether the current is the last centralized procurement cycle. If it is not the last centralized procurement cycle, the cycle continues to update the long-term procurement plan and formulate the corresponding short-term procurement plan. If it is the last centralized procurement cycle, the updating of the long-term procurement plan and the formulation of the short-term procurement plan will be stopped after the material procurement is completed.

[0088] Deviations in the execution of the long-term and short-term procurement plans of the last centralized procurement cycle can be made up by purchasing from the remaining budget within the predetermined time period before the power project carries out material mobilization, or by means of material mobilization, material replacement, etc., to avoid affecting the normal implementation of the power project.

[0089] The above-described embodiment is only a preferred solution of the present invention and does not limit the present invention in any form. There are other variations and modifications without exceeding the technical solution described in the claims.

Claims

1. A procurement project monitoring and control method considering multiple time scales, characterized in that: include: According to the corresponding power projects, set up long-term procurement plans with a long time scale for procurement projects; Based on the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan in the first centralized procurement cycle, combined with the current market fluctuation information and demand change information, select procurement objects and set corresponding restrictions to build the corresponding short-term procurement plan with a short time scale; Implement long-term and short-term procurement plans; Obtain the actual implementation status of the long-term and short-term procurement plans in the current centralized procurement cycle, adjust the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle according to the actual implementation status, and formulate the short-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle accordingly; According to the centralized procurement cycle, long-term procurement plan updates and short-term procurement plan formulation are cyclically executed until the procurement of materials for all centralized procurement cycles is completed according to the corresponding long-term procurement plans and short-term procurement plans.

2. The method for monitoring and controlling procurement projects considering multiple time scales according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The procurement content in the first centralized procurement cycle based on the long-term procurement plan is combined with the current market fluctuation information and demand change information to select procurement objects and set corresponding restrictions to build a corresponding short-term procurement plan with a short time scale, including: Combined with the corresponding power projects, determine the adjustable materials and their purchase volume fluctuation range according to the procurement content of the first centralized procurement cycle; Select purchase targets based on adjustable materials, market fluctuation information, and demand change information; Procurement restrictions are set based on the fluctuation range of material procurement volume and demand change information corresponding to the procurement object. Combined with the market fluctuation information corresponding to the procurement object, all short-term procurement plans within the corresponding time period of the first centralized procurement cycle are constructed on a short time scale.

3. The method for monitoring and controlling procurement projects considering multiple time scales according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The above-mentioned combination of corresponding power projects and the determination of the adjustable materials and their purchase volume fluctuation range according to the purchase content of the first centralized procurement cycle include: Based on the procurement content of the first centralized procurement cycle, retrieve the multi-dimensional data of each procurement material, calculate the adjustable capacity of each procurement material, and divide the procurement materials into fixed materials and adjustable materials based on the corresponding adjustable capacity and importance in the power project; Get the current inventory quantity of adjustable materials, and calculate the purchase quantity upper limit of adjustable materials based on the current inventory quantity of adjustable materials and the corresponding maximum inventory quantity; Determine the end time of the first centralized procurement cycle, and predict the minimum inventory of adjustable materials in the first centralized procurement cycle in combination with the corresponding power project. Calculate the lower limit of the purchase volume of adjustable materials based on the predicted result of the minimum inventory and the current inventory of adjustable materials. Set the purchase volume fluctuation range of adjustable materials based on the purchase volume upper limit and purchase volume lower limit.

4. The method for monitoring and controlling procurement projects considering multiple time scales according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The selection of procurement objects according to adjustable materials, market fluctuation information and demand change information includes: Predict the price change curve of each adjustable material in the first centralized procurement cycle based on market fluctuation information, determine the price fluctuation curve of each adjustable material in combination with the purchase price of each adjustable material in the long-term procurement plan, and calculate the average fluctuating price of each adjustable material; Calculate the adjustment cost of each adjustable material purchase method and compare the adjustment cost with the corresponding average fluctuating price; Determine the new materials for the procurement project based on the demand change information, and purchase the new materials and the adjustable materials whose adjustment costs are lower than the average fluctuating price.

5. The method for monitoring and controlling procurement projects considering multiple time scales according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The procurement restriction conditions are set based on the fluctuation range of the material procurement volume and the demand change information corresponding to the procurement object, and combined with the market fluctuation information corresponding to the procurement object, all short-term procurement plans within the time period corresponding to the first centralized procurement cycle are constructed on a short-term scale, including: Determine the reduced materials according to the demand change information, determine the planned purchase quantity of the reduced materials and the adjustable materials in the purchase objects in the first centralized purchase cycle of the long-term purchase plan, and calculate the first budget data in combination with the corresponding predetermined prices; Determine the newly added materials and their planned purchase quantities based on the demand change information, and set purchase restriction conditions based on the planned purchase quantities of the newly added materials, the fluctuation range of the purchase quantities of the adjustable materials in the purchase objects, and the first budget data; The price and supply information of the procurement objects in the first centralized procurement cycle are predicted based on the corresponding market fluctuation information. Combined with the procurement constraints, all short-term procurement plans in the corresponding time period of the first centralized procurement cycle are formulated through a random dynamic programming algorithm.

6. The method for monitoring and controlling procurement projects considering multiple time scales according to claim 5 is characterized in that: The method of predicting the price information and supply quantity information of the procurement objects in the first centralized procurement cycle based on the corresponding market fluctuation information, and formulating all short-term procurement plans in the corresponding time period of the first centralized procurement cycle through a random dynamic programming algorithm in combination with procurement restrictions, includes: Based on the time scale of short-term procurement plan formulation, the state variables, decision variables, state transition equations and random parameters of the stochastic dynamic programming algorithm are set; Taking the lowest total procurement cost of all short-term procurement plans in the first centralized procurement cycle as the objective function and procurement restrictions as constraints, a stochastic dynamic programming model is constructed. The random dynamic programming model is solved by the strategy iteration method to obtain all short-term procurement plans within the corresponding time period of the first centralized procurement cycle.

7. The method for monitoring and controlling procurement projects considering multiple time scales according to claim 5 is characterized in that: Also includes: Determine the reduction of materials based on demand change information, match the reduced materials with the long-term procurement plan, and adjust the corresponding procurement content of the long-term procurement plan.

8. The method for monitoring and controlling procurement projects considering multiple time scales according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The procurement content of the long-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle shall be adjusted according to the actual implementation situation, and a short-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle shall be formulated accordingly, including: Determine the deviation information of purchased materials based on the actual implementation situation, and match the deviation information with the purchase content of the long-term purchase plan of the next centralized purchase cycle; Based on the matching results, adjust the planned purchase quantity of each purchase material in the long-term purchase plan of the next centralized purchase cycle; Based on the procurement content of the adjusted long-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle, combined with the current market fluctuation information and demand change information, the short-term procurement plan for the next centralized procurement cycle will be re-formulated.

9. The method for monitoring and controlling procurement projects considering multiple time scales according to claim 8 is characterized in that: The cyclical updating of the long-term procurement plan and the short-term procurement plan according to the centralized procurement cycle also includes: Continuously record the change information of purchase price and purchase quantity of each purchase object in the completed short-term purchase plan; The adjustable capacity of the corresponding procurement objects is updated based on the procurement price change information and procurement volume information. When the long-term procurement plan is updated and the corresponding short-term procurement plan is formulated, the procurement objects of the short-term procurement plan are reselected based on the updated adjustable capacity.

10. The method for monitoring and controlling procurement projects considering multiple time scales according to claim 1 or 8, characterized in that: Also includes: Obtain the total procurement content of all short-term procurement plans within the corresponding centralized procurement cycle, and adjust the procurement content of the long-term procurement plan in the corresponding centralized procurement cycle based on the total procurement content.

Images