Calculation method and system for predicting power failure probability in advance, terminal and medium

Abstract

The invention discloses a calculation method for predicting a power failure probability in advance, and discloses a system with the calculation method for predicting the power failure probability in advance, a terminal and a storage medium. Through extraction of a fault set and network power flow analysis in a single fault state, the power supply condition in the system is judged, a load shedding measure for maintaining the static stability of the system is obtained, the power failure probability of the system is calculated, management and control work is performed in the event occurrence process, and the system reliability is improved. And active response and emergency control strategies are adopted to reduce the influence of events on the system, and meanwhile, sufficient preparation is made for post-event rapid recovery.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of power system reliability assessment, and in particular to a calculation method, system, terminal and medium for predicting power outage probability in advance. Background Art

[0002] Power system reliability management refers to activities carried out to ensure the adequacy and safety of the power system, including pre-event prediction and warning of power system risks, in-event process control, post-event summary and evaluation, and preventive measures. Before a risk event occurs, it is necessary to do a good job of prediction and warning, sort out the biggest risks and weak links faced by each link of the power system, and identify the key equipment, networks, and systems that maintain the basic functions of the power system; do a good job of control during the event, take active response and emergency control strategies to reduce the impact of the event on the system, and make full preparations for rapid recovery afterwards; after the event occurs, it is necessary to coordinate and cooperate through the power generation, transmission, distribution, and power consumption systems, adopt appropriate recovery strategies, and take corresponding preventive measures for the next possible risk.

[0003] In order to speed up the assessment of power outage risks and reduce the losses caused by natural disasters and other accidents to the power grid system and users, it is necessary to predict the power outage risks of the power grid. At present, there is a lack of power outage probability prediction indicators in the planning of advance prediction and early warning of power grid reliability assessment. The power outage probability indicates the average probability of power outage in the entire power grid each year and is an important indicator in reliability assessment. Summary of the invention

[0004] The present invention aims to solve at least one of the technical problems existing in the prior art. To this end, the present invention proposes a method for calculating the probability of power outage in advance prediction, which can solve the problem of lack of power outage probability index in the current planned power grid reliability assessment advance prediction, and judge the power supply situation in the system by extracting the fault set and analyzing the network flow under a single fault state, and obtain the load shedding measures to maintain the static stability of the system, and then calculate the power outage probability of the system. .

[0005] The present invention also provides a system, a terminal and a storage medium having the above-mentioned calculation method for predicting the probability of power outage in advance.

[0006] The method for calculating the probability of power outage predicted in advance according to the first aspect of the present invention is characterized by comprising the following steps:

[0007] Step 1: Obtain power system network topology and operation mode data;

[0008] Step 2: From the fault set S of the system fault state that causes the system to lose load LC Select a system fault state X i , perform power system flow calculation and analysis, and obtain the flow calculation results;

[0009] Step 3: If the power flow calculation result shows convergence or non-convergence, the system is not decoupled after the fault. If the power flow converges, jump to step 5 to perform line overload and voltage over-limit detection; if the power flow calculation result shows non-convergence, jump to step 4; if the power flow result shows an error of missing balancing nodes, the system is decoupled, jump to step 4, and add balancing nodes in each decoupled system;

[0010] Step 4: Adjust the generator output and load shedding size through sensitivity analysis method, reduce the power of disconnected lines to 0, and perform power flow calculation until the power flow converges;

[0011] Step 5: Determine whether the power supply of each system is sufficient. If the power supply is insufficient, cut the load;

[0012] Step 6: After the load is cut off, the power flow calculation and analysis of the fault state is performed again to check whether the voltage, line and transformer capacity exceed the limit. If so, the load cutting measures are continued through sensitivity analysis;

[0013] Step 7: Calculate the power flow of each system in the fault state after load shedding to determine whether the bus voltage and branch power exceed the limit. If so, continue to shear the load through sensitivity analysis and repeat the operation of step 6. If not, proceed to the next step.

[0014] Step 8: Calculate the power outage probability based on the system component reliability statistical indicators;

[0015] Step 9: From the fault set S of the system fault state causing the system load loss LC Select a system fault state X i+1 Repeat steps 2 to 8 above until the power outage probability is calculated for all fault states.

[0016] The method for calculating the probability of power outages in advance according to an embodiment of the present invention has at least the following beneficial effects: the method for calculating the probability of power outages in advance provided by the present application is based on the failure rate, repair rate, and repair time parameters of several components in the system, and obtains the system load loss situation under different fault states through the power flow calculation method, and then calculates the power outage probability of the system, which can improve the accuracy of reliability assessment and reduce the losses caused to the power grid system and users by natural disasters and other accidents.

[0017] According to some embodiments of the present invention, the operation mode data includes generator active power and reactive power, load active power and reactive power, transformer and line impedance parameters.

[0018] According to some embodiments of the present invention, in the step of calculating the power outage probability based on the system component reliability statistical index, the power outage probability P SLOLP The calculation formula is:

[0019]

[0020] Among them, P(X i ) is the probability of system failure state, S LC is the system load failure set; X i The system is in fault state.

[0021] According to some embodiments of the present invention, the P(X i ) calculation process includes:

[0022] Select any component k in the power system and assume that its unavailability probability is p k , X k is its operating state, then P(X k ) is:

[0023]

[0024] in: λ k is the failure rate (times / year), μ k is the repair rate (times / year).

[0025] r is the repair time.

[0026] According to some embodiments of the present invention, the power system has M elements; then X i =(X i1 ,X i2 ,...,X ik ,...,X iM ) can be expressed as an operating state of the power system in the state space, and the joint probability distribution function P(X i ) can be expressed as:

[0027]

[0028] The calculation system for predicting power outage probability in advance according to the second aspect of the present invention is characterized by comprising:

[0029] Data collection module, used to obtain power system network topology and operation mode data;

[0030] The power flow analysis module is used to analyze the fault set S of the system fault state that causes system load loss. LC Select a system fault state X i , perform power system flow calculation and analysis, and obtain the flow calculation results;

[0031] The decoupling judgment module is used to determine whether the system is not decoupling after the fault if the power flow calculation result shows convergence or non-convergence. If the power flow converges, the line overload and voltage over-limit detection is performed based on the load shedding module; if the power flow calculation result shows non-convergence, the power flow control module is entered; if the power flow result shows an error of lack of balancing nodes, the system is decoupling, the power flow control module is entered, and the balancing nodes are supplemented in the decoupling systems;

[0032] The power flow control module is used to adjust the generator output and load shedding size through sensitivity analysis method, reduce the power of disconnected lines to 0, and perform power flow calculation until the power flow converges;

[0033] The load shedding module is used to determine whether the power supply of each system is sufficient. If the power supply is insufficient, the load is shelved;

[0034] The first over-limit judgment module is used to perform power flow calculation and analysis of the fault state again after load shedding to check whether the voltage, line and transformer capacity exceed the limit. If so, load shedding measures are continued through sensitivity analysis;

[0035] The second over-limit judgment module is used to calculate the power flow of each system in the fault state after load shedding, and judge whether the bus voltage and branch power are over-limit. If so, the load is shelved through sensitivity analysis and the operation of the load shedding module is continued. If not, the next step is entered;

[0036] A power outage probability calculation module, used to calculate the power outage probability based on the reliability statistical indicators of system components;

[0037] The state traversal module is used to obtain the fault set S of the system fault state that causes the system to lose load. LC Select a system fault state X i+1 Repeat steps 2 to 8 above until all fault conditions are calculated to obtain the power outage probability.

[0038] According to some embodiments of the present invention, the operation mode data includes generator active power and reactive power, load active power and reactive power, transformer and line impedance parameters.

[0039] According to some embodiments of the present invention, the power outage probability calculation module, the power outage probability P SLOLP The calculation formula is:

[0040]

[0041] Among them, P(X i ) is the probability of system failure state, S LC is the system load failure set; X i The system is in fault state.

[0042] According to some embodiments of the present invention, the P(X i ) calculation process includes:

[0043] Select any component k in the power system and assume that its unavailability probability is p k , X k is its operating state, then P(X k ) is:

[0044]

[0045] in: λk is the failure rate (times / year), μ k is the repair rate (times / year).

[0046] r is the repair time.

[0047] According to some embodiments of the present invention, the power system has M elements; then X i =(X i1 ,X i2 ,...,X ik ,...,X iM ) can be expressed as an operating state of the power system in the state space, and the joint probability distribution function P(X i ) can be expressed as:

[0048]

[0049] An embodiment of the third aspect of the present invention provides a terminal, which includes: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, and when the processor executes the computer program, the above-mentioned method for calculating the probability of power outage predicted in advance is implemented.

[0050] An embodiment of the fourth aspect of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores computer-executable instructions for executing the above-mentioned method for calculating the probability of power outage predicted in advance.

[0051] Additional aspects and advantages of the present invention will be given in part in the following description and in part will be obvious from the following description, or will be learned through practice of the present invention. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0052] The above and / or additional aspects and advantages of the present invention will become apparent and easily understood from the description of the embodiments in conjunction with the following drawings, in which:

[0053] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of the steps of a method for calculating the probability of power outage in advance according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0054] Figure 2 The present invention is a block diagram of a system for calculating the probability of power outages in advance according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0055] Embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below, examples of which are shown in the accompanying drawings, wherein the same or similar reference numerals throughout represent the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar functions. The embodiments described below with reference to the accompanying drawings are exemplary and are only used to explain the present invention, and cannot be understood as limiting the present invention.

[0056] In the description of the present invention, it should be understood that descriptions involving orientations, such as up, down, front, back, left, right, etc., and orientations or positional relationships indicated are based on the orientations or positional relationships shown in the accompanying drawings, and are only for the convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the device or element referred to must have a specific orientation, be constructed and operated in a specific orientation, and therefore should not be understood as a limitation on the present invention.

[0057] In the description of the present invention, "several" means one or more, "more" means more than two, "greater than", "less than", "exceed" etc. are understood as not including the number itself, and "above", "below", "within" etc. are understood as including the number itself. If there is a description of "first" or "second", it is only used for the purpose of distinguishing the technical features, and cannot be understood as indicating or implying the relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of the indicated technical features or implicitly indicating the order of the indicated technical features.

[0058] In the description of the present invention, unless otherwise clearly defined, terms such as setting, installing, connecting, etc. should be understood in a broad sense, and technicians in the relevant technical field can reasonably determine the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention based on the specific content of the technical solution.

[0059] In order to solve the problem of lack of power outage probability index in the prior art, the present application proposes a method for calculating the power outage probability in advance, which method at least includes the following steps: Figure 1 shown.

[0060] Step 1: Obtain power system network topology and operation mode data;

[0061] Step 2: From the fault set S of the system fault state that causes the system to lose load LC Select a system fault state X i , perform power system flow calculation and analysis, and obtain the flow calculation results;

[0062] Step 3: If the power flow calculation result shows convergence or non-convergence, the system is not decoupled after the fault. If the power flow converges, jump to step 5 to perform line overload and voltage over-limit detection; if the power flow calculation result shows non-convergence, jump to step 4; if the power flow result shows an error of missing balancing nodes, the system is decoupled, jump to step 4, and add balancing nodes in each decoupled system;

[0063] Step 4: Adjust the generator output and load shedding size through sensitivity analysis method, reduce the power of disconnected lines to 0, and perform power flow calculation until the power flow converges;

[0064] Step 5: Determine whether the power supply of each system is sufficient. If the power supply is insufficient, cut the load;

[0065] Step 6: After the load is cut off, the power flow calculation and analysis of the fault state is performed again to check whether the voltage, line and transformer capacity exceed the limit. If so, the load cutting measures are continued through sensitivity analysis;

[0066] Step 7: Calculate the power flow of each system in the fault state after load shedding to determine whether the bus voltage and branch power exceed the limit. If so, continue to shear the load through sensitivity analysis and repeat the operation of step 6. If not, proceed to the next step.

[0067] Step 8: Calculate the power outage probability based on the statistical indicators of system component reliability; the calculation formula is:

[0068]

[0069] Where: S LC is the system load failure set; X i The system is in fault state.

[0070] P(X i ) is the probability of system failure state. The calculation method of each system state probability is as follows: select any component k in the power system and assume that its unavailability probability is p k , X k is its operating state, then P(X k ) is:

[0071]

[0072] in: λk is the failure rate (times / year), μ k is the repair rate (times / year). r is the repair time.

[0073] For a system consisting of M components, X i =(X i1 ,Xi2 ,...,X ik ,...,X iM ) is a system operating state in the state space. The joint probability distribution function P(X) of the system state can be determined based on the unavailability probability and mutual relationship of each component. i ). For example, when the failures of each component are independent of each other, the system state X i The probability is:

[0074]

[0075] Step 9: From the fault set S of the system fault state causing the system load loss LC Select a system fault state X i+1 Repeat steps 2 to 8 above until the power outage probability is calculated for all fault states.

[0076] Another embodiment of the present application provides a calculation system for predicting the probability of power outage in advance, such as Figure 2 As shown, the system 20 includes:

[0077] The data collection module 201 is used to obtain the power system network topology and operation mode data;

[0078] The power flow analysis module 202 is used to analyze the fault set S of the system fault state causing the system to lose load. LC Select a system fault state X i , perform power system flow calculation and analysis, and obtain the flow calculation results;

[0079] The decoupling judgment module 203 is used to determine if the power flow calculation result shows convergence or non-convergence, then the system is not decoupling after the fault; if the power flow converges, then the line overload and voltage over-limit detection is performed based on the load shedding module; if the power flow calculation result shows non-convergence, then the power flow control module is entered; if the power flow result shows an error of lack of balancing nodes, then the system is decoupling, and the power flow control module is entered, and the balancing nodes are supplemented in the decoupling systems;

[0080] The power flow control module 204 is used to adjust the generator output and load shedding size through a sensitivity analysis method, reduce the power of the disconnected line to 0, and perform power flow calculation until the power flow converges;

[0081] The load shedding module 205 is used to determine whether the power supply of each system is sufficient, and if the power supply is insufficient, the load is shelved;

[0082] The first over-limit judgment module 206 is used to perform power flow calculation and analysis of the fault state again after load shedding to check whether the voltage and line and transformer capacity are over-limited. If so, load shedding measures are continued through sensitivity analysis;

[0083] The second over-limit judgment module 207 is used to calculate the power flow of each system in the fault state after load shedding, and judge whether the bus voltage and branch power are over-limit. If so, continue to shear the load through sensitivity analysis and the operation of the load shedding module. If not, proceed to the next step;

[0084] A power outage probability calculation module 208, used to calculate the power outage probability based on the system component reliability statistical indicators;

[0085] The state traversal module 209 is used to select the fault set S of the system fault state causing the system load loss. LC Select a system fault state X i+1 Repeat steps 2 to 8 above until the power outage probability is calculated for all fault states.

[0086] Furthermore, the operation mode data includes generator active power and reactive power, load active power and reactive power, transformer and line impedance parameters.

[0087] Furthermore, in the power outage probability calculation module 208, the power outage probability PSLOLP is calculated using the following formula:

[0088]

[0089] Among them, P(X i ) is the probability of system failure state, S LC is the system load failure set; X i The system is in fault state.

[0090] Furthermore, P(X i ) calculation process includes:

[0091] Select any component k in the power system and assume that its unavailability probability is p k , X k is its operating state, then P(X k ) is:

[0092]

[0093] in: λ k is the failure rate (times / year), μ k is the repair rate (times / year).

[0094] r is the repair time.

[0095] Furthermore, the power system has M components; then X i =(X i1 ,X i2 ,...,Xik ,...,X iM ) can be expressed as an operating state of the power system in the state space, and the joint probability distribution function P(X i ) can be expressed as:

[0096]

[0097] Another embodiment of the present application provides a terminal, including: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement the above-mentioned method for calculating the probability of power outage predicted in advance.

[0098] Specifically, the processor may be a CPU, a general-purpose processor, a DSP, an ASIC, an FPGA or other programmable logic device, a transistor logic device, a hardware component or any combination thereof. It may implement or execute various exemplary logic blocks, modules and circuits described in conjunction with the disclosure of this application. The processor may also be a combination that implements computing functions, such as a combination of one or more microprocessors, a combination of a DSP and a microprocessor, etc.

[0099] Specifically, the processor is connected to the memory via a bus, and the bus may include a path for transmitting information. The bus may be a PCI bus or an EISA bus, etc. The bus may be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, etc.

[0100] The memory can be a ROM or other type of static storage device that can store static information and instructions, a RAM or other type of dynamic storage device that can store information and instructions, or an EEPROM, CD-ROM or other optical disk storage, optical disk storage (including compressed optical disk, laser disk, optical disk, digital versatile disk, Blu-ray disk, etc.), magnetic disk storage medium or other magnetic storage device, or any other medium that can be used to carry or store the desired program code in the form of instructions or data structures and can be accessed by a computer, but is not limited to this.

[0101] Optionally, the memory is used to store the code of the computer program for executing the solution of the present application, and the execution is controlled by the processor. The processor is used to execute the application program code stored in the memory to implement Figure 2 The illustrated embodiment provides the function of a calculation system for predicting the probability of power outage in advance.

[0102] Another aspect of the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium storing computer-executable instructions for executing the above-mentioned Figure 1 The calculation method of the ex ante predicted power outage probability is shown.

[0103] The device embodiments described above are only illustrative, and the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.

[0104] It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that all or some of the steps and systems in the disclosed method above may be implemented as software, firmware, hardware and appropriate combinations thereof. Some physical components or all physical components may be implemented as software executed by a processor, such as a central processing unit, a digital signal processor or a microprocessor, or may be implemented as hardware, or may be implemented as an integrated circuit, such as an application specific integrated circuit. Such software may be distributed on a computer-readable medium, which may include a computer storage medium (or a non-transitory medium) and a communication medium (or a temporary medium). As known to those skilled in the art, the term computer storage medium includes volatile and non-volatile, removable and non-removable media implemented in any method or technology for storing information (such as computer-readable instructions, data structures, program modules or other data). Computer storage media include, but are not limited to, RAM, ROM, EEPROM, flash memory or other memory technologies, CD-ROM, digital versatile disks (DVD) or other optical disk storage, magnetic cassettes, magnetic tapes, disk storage or other magnetic storage devices, or any other medium that may be used to store desired information and may be accessed by a computer. Furthermore, it is well known to those skilled in the art that communication media typically embodies computer readable instructions, data structures, program modules, or other data in a modulated data signal such as a carrier wave or other transport mechanism, and may include any information delivery media.

[0105] The above is a specific description of the preferred implementation of the present application, but the present application is not limited to the above-mentioned implementation mode. Technical personnel familiar with the field can also make various equivalent deformations or substitutions without violating the spirit of the present application. These equivalent deformations or substitutions are all included in the scope defined by the claims of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for calculating the probability of power outage in advance, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: Obtain power system network topology and operation mode data; Step 2: From the fault set S of the system fault state that causes the system to lose load LC Select a system fault state X i , perform power system flow calculation and analysis, and obtain the flow calculation results; Step 3: If the power flow calculation result shows convergence or non-convergence, the system is not decoupled after the fault. If the power flow converges, jump to step 5 to perform line overload and voltage over-limit detection; if the power flow calculation result shows non-convergence, jump to step 4; If the power flow results show an error of missing balance nodes, the system is decoupled and the process goes to step 4. At the same time, balance nodes are added to the decoupled systems. Step 4: Adjust the generator output and load shedding size through sensitivity analysis method, reduce the power of disconnected lines to 0, and perform power flow calculation until the power flow converges; Step 5: Determine whether the power supply of each system is sufficient. If the power supply is insufficient, cut the load; Step 6: After the load is cut off, the power flow calculation and analysis of the fault state is performed again to check whether the voltage, line and transformer capacity exceed the limit. If so, the load cutting measures are continued through sensitivity analysis; Step 7: Calculate the power flow of each system in the fault state after load shedding to determine whether the bus voltage and branch power exceed the limit. If so, continue to shear the load through sensitivity analysis and repeat the operation of step 6. If not, proceed to the next step. Step 8: Calculate the power outage probability based on the system component reliability statistical indicators; Step 9: From the fault set S of the system fault state causing the system load loss LC Select a system fault state X i+1 Repeat steps 2 to 8 above until the power outage probability is calculated for all fault states.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The operation mode data include generator active power and reactive power, load active power and reactive power, transformer and line impedance parameters.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that In the step of calculating the power outage probability based on the system component reliability statistical index, the power outage probability P SLOLP The calculation formula is: Among them, P(X i ) is the probability of system failure state, S LC is the system load failure fault set; X i The system is in fault state.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The P(X i ) calculation process includes: Select any component k in the power system and assume that its unavailability probability is p k , X k is its operating state, then P(X k ) is: in: λk is the failure rate (times / year), μ k is the repair rate (times / year). r is the repair time.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that The power system has M components; then X i =(X i1 ,X i2 ,...,X ik ,...,X iM ) can be expressed as an operating state of the power system in the state space, and the joint probability distribution function P(X i ) can be expressed as:

6. A calculation system for predicting the probability of power outage in advance, characterized in that: include: Data collection module, used to obtain power system network topology and operation mode data; The power flow analysis module is used to analyze the fault set S of the system fault state that causes system load loss. LC Select a system fault state X i , perform power system flow calculation and analysis, and obtain the flow calculation results; The decoupling judgment module is used to determine whether the system is not decoupling after the fault if the power flow calculation result shows convergence or non-convergence. If the power flow converges, the line overload and voltage over-limit detection is performed based on the load shedding module; if the power flow calculation result shows non-convergence, the power flow control module is entered; if the power flow result shows an error of lack of balancing nodes, the system is decoupling, the power flow control module is entered, and the balancing nodes are supplemented in the decoupling systems; The power flow control module is used to adjust the generator output and load shedding size through sensitivity analysis method, reduce the power of disconnected lines to 0, and perform power flow calculation until the power flow converges; The load shedding module is used to determine whether the power supply of each system is sufficient. If the power supply is insufficient, the load is shelved; The first over-limit judgment module is used to perform power flow calculation and analysis of the fault state again after load shedding to check whether the voltage, line and transformer capacity exceed the limit. If so, load shedding measures are continued through sensitivity analysis; The second over-limit judgment module is used to calculate the power flow of each system in the fault state after load shedding, and judge whether the bus voltage and branch power are over-limit. If so, the load is shelved through sensitivity analysis and the operation of the load shedding module is continued. If not, the next step is entered; A power outage probability calculation module, used to calculate the power outage probability based on the reliability statistical indicators of system components; The state traversal module is used to obtain the fault set S of the system fault state that causes the system to lose load. LC Select a system fault state X i+1 Repeat steps 2 to 8 above until the power outage probability is calculated for all fault states.

7. The system according to claim 6, characterized in that The operation mode data include generator active power and reactive power, load active power and reactive power, transformer and line impedance parameters.

8. The system according to claim 6, characterized in that The power outage probability calculation module, the power outage probability P SLOLP The calculation formula is: Among them, P(X i ) is the probability of system failure state, S LC is the system load failure fault set; X i The system is in fault state.

9. The method according to claim 8, characterized in that The P(X i ) calculation process includes: Select any component k in the power system and assume that its unavailability probability is p k , X k is its operating state, then P(X k ) is: in: λk is the failure rate (times / year), μ k is the repair rate (times / year). r is the repair time.

10. The method according to claim 9, characterized in that The power system has M components; then X i =(X i1 ,X i2 ,...,X ik ,...,X iM ) can be expressed as an operating state of the power system in the state space, and the joint probability distribution function P(X i ) can be expressed as:

11. A terminal, comprising: A memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement the method according to any one of claims 1 to 5. 12 . A computer-readable storage medium storing computer-executable instructions, wherein the computer-executable instructions are used to execute the method according to claim 1 .

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