Method, device, equipment and medium for predicting and early warning influence of extreme weather on power system

Abstract

The invention provides a method, a device, equipment and a medium for predicting and early warning the influence of extreme weather on a power system, and relates to the technical field of power system maintenance, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining a geographically similar historical typhoon and a second trajectory parameter thereof according to a first trajectory parameter of a to-be-predicted typhoon and a trajectory parameter of the historical typhoon; according to the moving direction and moving speed similarity obtained through calculation of the first track parameter, the second track parameter and a preset track time period, target similar historical typhoons are screened, and the similarity weight of the target similar historical typhoons is calculated; according to the current movement parameter, the similarity weight and the third trajectory parameter, calculating a predicted movement direction movement speed and a predicted position of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; whether the typhoon to be predicted has risks to the power system or not is judged according to the predicted moving direction moving speed and the predicted position, if yes, early warning prompt information is sent, and the prediction efficiency and prediction accuracy of the typhoon trajectory and the influence degree of the typhoon trajectory on the power system elements are effectively improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of power system maintenance, and specifically to a method, device, equipment and medium for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on power systems. Background Art

[0002] In recent decades, with the destruction of the natural environment by humans and the cyclical changes in the global climate, all parts of the world are facing increasing risks of climate change, and the frequency of extreme weather is also increasing. All regions of the world have been affected to varying degrees. As one of the countries most seriously affected by tropical cyclone disasters in the world, an average of 7.2 typhoons land on the southeast coast every year, causing direct economic losses of about 0.4% of GDP. With the increase in extreme weather events, typhoons, as a more common extreme weather, cannot be ignored for the impact on the power system.

[0003] The typhoon's trajectory directly determines the basic components of the power system that may be affected, but the current methods always have errors in predicting the typhoon's trajectory. There are three main methods for predicting typhoon trajectories, namely, typhoon trajectory prediction based on dynamics, typhoon trajectory prediction based on statistics, and typhoon trajectory prediction based on semi-statistics and semi-dynamics. Typhoon trajectory prediction based on dynamics needs to consider the influencing factors of the typhoon and establish many numerical equations. These numerical equations are usually difficult to solve and are not suitable for typhoon predictions for pre-operation of power systems; typhoon trajectory prediction based on statistics requires a large amount of historical typhoon trajectory data. The prediction speed of this type of method is also much faster than that of typhoon trajectory prediction based on dynamics and semi-statistics and semi-dynamics. As long as the data is large enough and accurate enough, the prediction results can also be very accurate. This type of method can only be applied to typhoon predictions for pre-operation of power systems. The semi-statistics and semi-dynamics typhoon trajectory prediction must consider the influencing factors of the typhoon and have enough historical data of typhoon trajectories. The established numerical equations are also difficult to solve quickly.

[0004] In order to study the impact of typhoon weather on the power system, predict the areas that may be affected by the power system, and clarify the power system components that may be affected by the typhoon, it is necessary to propose a more accurate typhoon trajectory prediction method to predict the impact of the typhoon on the power system components. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of this application is to address the above problems and provide a method, device, equipment and medium for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on the power system, so as to improve the prediction efficiency and accuracy of typhoon tracks and the degree of impact on power system components.

[0006] In a first aspect, the present application provides a method for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on a power system, comprising:

[0007] Obtaining the first trajectory parameters and current movement parameters of the typhoon to be predicted;

[0008] According to the first trajectory parameter and the trajectory parameter of the historical typhoon, a historical typhoon that is geographically similar to the typhoon to be predicted is obtained as a geographically similar historical typhoon, and a second trajectory parameter of the geographically similar historical typhoon is obtained;

[0009] According to the first trajectory parameter, the second trajectory parameter and the preset trajectory time period, the similarity of the direction and speed between the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted is calculated, and according to the direction and speed similarity, a target similar historical typhoon and its corresponding third trajectory parameter are selected from the geographically similar historical typhoons, and a similarity weight of the target similar historical typhoon is calculated;

[0010] Calculating the predicted moving direction speed of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted according to the current moving parameter, the similarity weight, and the third track parameter, and calculating the predicted position of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted according to the first track parameter and the predicted moving direction speed;

[0011] It is determined whether the predicted typhoon poses a risk to the power system based on the predicted moving speed and the predicted position. If so, an early warning message is sent.

[0012] According to the technical solution provided by the present application, the first trajectory parameter includes the longitude and latitude of multiple trajectory points that the typhoon to be predicted has passed through, and the trajectory parameter of the historical typhoon includes the longitude and latitude of each trajectory point included in each historical typhoon; the acquiring, based on the first trajectory parameter and the trajectory parameter of the historical typhoon, a historical typhoon that is geographically similar to the typhoon to be predicted as a geographically similar historical typhoon includes:

[0013] According to the longitudes and latitudes of the multiple track points that the to-be-forecasted typhoon has passed through, and the longitudes and latitudes of the track points included in each historical typhoon, obtain the following:

[0014]

[0015] as the geographically similar historical typhoon; wherein, la(i,j) is the latitude of the jth trajectory point of the ith historical typhoon; lap(j) is the latitude of the jth trajectory point experienced by the typhoon to be predicted; lo(i,j) is the longitude of the jth trajectory point of the ith historical typhoon; lop(j) is the longitude of the jth trajectory point experienced by the typhoon to be predicted; maxdla and maxdlo are the edge latitude and edge longitude corresponding to the preset judgment area.

[0016] According to the technical solution provided by the present application, the similarity of the direction and speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted is calculated according to the first trajectory parameter, the second trajectory parameter and the preset trajectory time period, including:

[0017] Calculating a first moving speed and a second moving speed of the typhoon to be predicted according to the first trajectory parameter and the preset trajectory time period; the first moving speed is a speed of the typhoon to be predicted perpendicular to the latitude direction, and the second moving speed is a speed of the typhoon to be predicted perpendicular to the meridian direction;

[0018] According to the second trajectory parameter and the preset trajectory time period, a third moving speed and a fourth moving speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon are calculated; the third moving speed is the speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon perpendicular to the latitude direction, and the fourth moving speed is the speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon perpendicular to the meridian direction;

[0019] Calculate a first average speed difference between the to-be-forecasted typhoon and the geographically similar historical typhoon according to the first moving speed and the third moving speed; the first average speed difference is an average speed difference perpendicular to the latitude direction;

[0020] Calculate the second average speed difference between the to-be-forecasted typhoon and the geographically similar historical typhoon according to the second moving speed and the fourth moving speed; the second average speed difference is the average speed difference perpendicular to the meridian direction;

[0021] The first average speed difference and the second average speed difference are respectively normalized to obtain the first similarity and the second similarity between the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted.

[0022] According to the technical solution provided by the present application, based on the similarity of the moving direction and speed, the target similar historical typhoon and its corresponding third trajectory parameter are selected from the geographically similar historical typhoons, and the similarity weight of the target similar historical typhoon is calculated, including:

[0023] Selecting geographically similar historical typhoons whose first similarity and second similarity are both less than a first preset threshold as the target similar historical typhoons, and obtaining third trajectory parameters corresponding to the target similar historical typhoons;

[0024] According to the formula:

[0025]

[0026] Calculate the first similarity weight and second similarity weight of each target similar historical typhoon respectively; wherein, kva(i) is the first similarity weight of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; VASI(i) is the first similarity of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; length(VASI) is the number of first similarities corresponding to the target similar historical typhoons; kvo(i) is the second similarity weight of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; VOSI(i) is the second similarity of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; length(VOSI) is the number of second similarities corresponding to the target similar historical typhoons.

[0027] According to the technical solution provided by the present application, the current movement parameter includes the movement speed and the movement angle of the current trajectory point of the to-be-predicted typhoon; the third trajectory parameter includes the longitude and latitude of multiple trajectory points included in the target similar historical typhoon; the predicted movement speed includes a first movement prediction speed and a second movement prediction speed; the calculation of the predicted movement speed of the next trajectory point of the to-be-predicted typhoon according to the current movement parameter, the similarity weight, and the third trajectory parameter includes:

[0028] Calculate the first current speed and the second current speed of the typhoon in the direction to be predicted according to the moving speed and the moving angle of the current track point of the typhoon in the direction to be predicted;

[0029] Calculate the first moving direction average speed and the second moving direction average speed of each of the target similar historical typhoons according to the longitudes and latitudes of the multiple trajectory points included in the target similar historical typhoons and the preset trajectory time period;

[0030] According to the formula:

[0031]

[0032] Calculate the first moving direction predicted speed and the second moving direction predicted speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; wherein vap1 is the first moving direction predicted speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; kva(i) is the first similarity weight of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; va(i, length(lap)) is the first moving direction average speed of the i-th target similar historical typhoon, and λ is the weight factor; va0 is the current speed of the first moving direction of the typhoon to be predicted; vop1 is the second moving direction predicted speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; kvo(i) is the first similarity weight of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; vo(i, length(lap)) is the second moving direction average speed of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; vo0 is the current speed of the second moving direction of the typhoon to be predicted; the first moving direction predicted speed and the second moving direction predicted speed are the predicted speed perpendicular to the latitude direction and the predicted speed perpendicular to the longitude direction, respectively, and the first moving direction average speed and the second moving direction average speed are the average speed perpendicular to the latitude direction and the average speed perpendicular to the longitude direction, respectively.

[0033] According to the technical solution provided by the present application, the predicted position includes the predicted latitude and predicted longitude of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted; and according to the first track parameter and the predicted moving speed, calculating the predicted position of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted includes:

[0034] According to the formula:

[0035] lap1=lap0+vap1*dt

[0036] lop1=lop0+vop1*dt

[0037] Calculate the predicted latitude and predicted longitude of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted; wherein, lap1 is the predicted latitude of the typhoon to be predicted, lap0 is the latitude of the current track point of the typhoon to be predicted; vap1 is the first predicted speed of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted; dt is a preset track time period; lop1 is the predicted longitude of the typhoon to be predicted, lop0 is the longitude of the current track point of the typhoon to be predicted; vop1 is the second predicted speed of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted.

[0038] According to the technical solution provided by the present application, judging whether the typhoon to be predicted poses a risk to the power system according to the predicted moving speed and the predicted position includes:

[0039] Calculating the predicted moving speed of the next track point of the to-be-predicted typhoon according to the first moving direction predicted speed and the second moving direction predicted speed;

[0040] According to the longitude and latitude of the current track point of the typhoon to be predicted and the predicted latitude and longitude, if it is determined that there is an electric power element between the current track point of the typhoon to be predicted and the next track point, then according to the formula:

[0041]

[0042] Calculate the probability of failure of the power element; wherein p is the probability of failure of the power element, v is the predicted moving speed, v1 is the critical speed that the power element can withstand, and a is a preset parameter;

[0043] If the power element failure probability is greater than a second preset threshold, it is determined that the predicted typhoon poses a risk to the power system.

[0044] In a second aspect, the present application provides a device for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on a power system, comprising:

[0045] A first acquisition module, used to acquire first trajectory parameters and current movement parameters of the typhoon to be predicted;

[0046] A second acquisition module is used to acquire, according to the first trajectory parameter and the trajectory parameter of the historical typhoon, a historical typhoon that is geographically similar to the typhoon to be predicted as a geographically similar historical typhoon, and acquire a second trajectory parameter of the geographically similar historical typhoon;

[0047] a first calculation module, configured to calculate the similarity of the direction and speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted according to the first trajectory parameter, the second trajectory parameter, and a preset trajectory time period, and to select a target similar historical typhoon and its corresponding third trajectory parameter from the geographically similar historical typhoons according to the direction and speed similarity, and calculate a similarity weight of the target similar historical typhoon;

[0048] a second calculation module, configured to calculate a predicted moving direction speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted according to the current moving parameter, the similarity weight, and the third trajectory parameter, and to calculate a predicted position of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted according to the first trajectory parameter and the predicted moving direction speed;

[0049] The prediction and warning module is used to determine whether the predicted typhoon poses a risk to the power system based on the predicted moving speed and the predicted position, and if so, send a warning prompt message.

[0050] In a third aspect, the present application provides an electronic device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the method described above when executing the computer program.

[0051] In a fourth aspect, the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, and the computer program implements the method described above when executed by a processor.

[0052] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present application are as follows: the method, device, equipment and medium for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on the power system provided by the present application obtain geographically similar historical typhoons and their second trajectory parameters according to the first trajectory parameters of the typhoon to be predicted and the trajectory parameters of historical typhoons; based on the similarity of movement direction and speed calculated by the first trajectory parameters, the second trajectory parameters and the preset trajectory time period, the target similar historical typhoons are screened and their similarity weights are calculated; based on the current movement parameters, the similarity weights and the third trajectory parameters, the predicted movement direction, movement speed and predicted position of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted are calculated; and then, based on the predicted movement direction, movement speed and predicted position, it is determined whether the typhoon to be predicted poses a risk to the power system, and if so, a warning prompt message is sent. By flattening the sphere between two trajectory points, the typhoon trajectory is predicted, and then combined with the general vulnerability curve, risk warning of the power system is carried out, realizing the prediction of the impact of extreme weather on power system components. It not only does not need to consider too many typhoon influencing factors, but also does not need to establish many difficult-to-solve numerical equations. It is also more efficient than the typhoon trajectory prediction based on dynamics and the semi-statistical and semi-dynamic typhoon trajectory prediction, effectively improving the prediction efficiency and accuracy of typhoon trajectories and the degree of their impact on power system components. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0053] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solution in this embodiment, the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiment will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0054] Figure 1 A flowchart of a method for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on a power system provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0055] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of speed decomposition provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0056] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of a device for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on a power system provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0057] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of a computer system of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0058] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the technical solution of the present application, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The description in this section is only exemplary and explanatory and should not have any limiting effect on the protection scope of the present application. Specifically, the described embodiments are only embodiments of a part of the present application, not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in the field without making creative work should fall within the scope of protection of the present application.

[0059] It should be noted that similar reference numerals and letters represent similar items in the following figures, so once an item is defined in one figure, it does not need to be further defined and explained in subsequent figures. In addition, the terms "including" and "having" and any variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions, for example, a process, method, system, product or device that includes a series of steps or units is not necessarily limited to those steps or units clearly listed, but may include other steps or units that are not clearly listed or inherent to these processes, methods, products or devices.

[0060] In order to make the technical solution of the present application clearer and easier to understand, the method for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on the power system provided in the embodiment of the present application is introduced below.

[0061] like Figure 1 As shown in FIG. 1 , the figure is a flow chart of a method for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on a power system provided in this embodiment, the method comprising the following steps:

[0062] S101, obtaining first trajectory parameters and current movement parameters of the typhoon to be predicted;

[0063] Specifically, the typhoon to be predicted is any typhoon that is currently on track, and the first trajectory parameter includes the positions (longitude and latitude) of multiple trajectory points that the typhoon to be predicted has passed before the current trajectory point and the position (longitude and latitude) of the current trajectory point; the current moving parameter includes the moving speed and moving angle of the current trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted. It should be noted that the moving speed is the total speed of the typhoon to be predicted; of course, the first trajectory parameter and the current moving parameter may also include other parameters, which can be set and adjusted according to actual conditions, and are not specifically limited this time.

[0064] S102. According to the first trajectory parameter and the trajectory parameter of the historical typhoon, a historical typhoon that is geographically similar to the typhoon to be predicted is obtained as a geographically similar historical typhoon, and a second trajectory parameter of the geographically similar historical typhoon is obtained;

[0065] Specifically, there are three similarity standards proposed by the Central Meteorological Bureau of my country: time and season similarity, geographical similarity, and similarity in direction and speed. It is generally believed that historical typhoons that are within one month of the time of occurrence of the typhoon to be predicted meet the time and season similarity conditions. In order to allow more historical typhoons to participate in the prediction, this application no longer considers the time and season similarity conditions. The trajectory parameters of the historical typhoon include the longitude and latitude of each trajectory point included in each historical typhoon, which can be obtained from the best path data set (tcdata.typhoon.org.cn) of the China Meteorological Tropical Low Pressure Cyclone Data Center. A preset judgment area is defined with the current trajectory point position (longitude and latitude) of the typhoon to be predicted as the center. According to the longitude and latitude of each trajectory point included in each historical typhoon, it is judged that if all the trajectory points of the historical typhoon are within the preset judgment area, the historical typhoon meets the geographical similarity condition with the typhoon to be predicted, that is, the geographically similar historical typhoon corresponding to the typhoon to be predicted. The second trajectory parameter includes the position (longitude and latitude) of each trajectory point included in the geographically similar historical typhoon.

[0066] S103, calculating the similarity of the direction and speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted according to the first trajectory parameter, the second trajectory parameter and the preset trajectory time period, and selecting a target similar historical typhoon and its corresponding third trajectory parameter from the geographically similar historical typhoons according to the direction and speed similarity, and calculating the similarity weight of the target similar historical typhoon;

[0067] Specifically, firstly, according to the first trajectory parameter and the preset trajectory time period, the first moving speed and the second moving speed of the typhoon to be predicted are calculated; the first moving speed is the speed of the typhoon to be predicted perpendicular to the latitude direction, and the second moving speed is the speed of the typhoon to be predicted perpendicular to the meridian direction. Then, according to the second trajectory parameter and the preset trajectory time period, the third moving speed and the fourth moving speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon are calculated; the third moving speed is the speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon perpendicular to the latitude direction, and the fourth moving speed is the speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon perpendicular to the meridian direction. Further, according to the first moving speed and the third moving speed, the first average speed difference between the typhoon to be predicted and the geographically similar historical typhoon is calculated; the first average speed difference is the average speed difference perpendicular to the latitude direction; and according to the second moving speed and the fourth moving speed, the second average speed difference between the typhoon to be predicted and the geographically similar historical typhoon is calculated; the second average speed difference is the average speed difference perpendicular to the meridian direction. Then, the first average speed difference and the second average speed difference are respectively normalized to obtain the first similarity and the second similarity between the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted. A geographically similar historical typhoon whose first similarity and the second similarity are both less than a first preset threshold is selected from the geographically similar historical typhoons as the target similar historical typhoon, and its corresponding third trajectory parameter is obtained, and then the first similarity weight of the target similar historical typhoon is calculated according to the first similarity, and the second similarity weight of the target similar historical typhoon is calculated according to the second similarity, so as to obtain the similarity weight of the target similar historical typhoon.

[0068] S104, calculating the predicted moving direction speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted according to the current moving parameter, the similarity weight, and the third trajectory parameter, and calculating the predicted position of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted according to the first trajectory parameter and the predicted moving direction speed;

[0069] Specifically, the current movement parameter includes the moving speed and the moving angle of the current trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; the third trajectory parameter includes the longitude and latitude of multiple trajectory points included in the target similar historical typhoon; the predicted moving speed includes a first moving predicted speed and a second moving predicted speed. According to the moving speed and the moving angle of the current trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted, the first moving current speed and the second moving current speed of the typhoon to be predicted are calculated. Then, according to the longitude and latitude of multiple trajectory points included in the target similar historical typhoon and the preset trajectory time period, the first moving average speed and the second moving average speed of each target similar historical typhoon are calculated respectively. Finally, the first moving predicted speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted is calculated according to the first moving current speed, the first moving average speed and the first similarity, and the second moving predicted speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted is calculated according to the second moving current speed, the second moving average speed and the second similarity. Then, the predicted latitude of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted is calculated according to the latitude of the current trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted and the first predicted movement speed; and the predicted longitude of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted is calculated according to the longitude of the current trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted and the second predicted movement speed to obtain the predicted position of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted.

[0070] S105. If the probability of failure of the power element is greater than a second preset threshold value according to the predicted moving speed and the predicted position, a warning message is sent to indicate whether the predicted typhoon poses a risk to the power system. If so, a warning message is sent.

[0071] Specifically, the predicted moving speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted is calculated based on the first predicted moving speed and the second predicted moving speed, and based on the longitude and latitude of the current trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted and the predicted latitude and predicted longitude, it is determined whether there is an electric power element between the current trajectory point and the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; if so, the failure probability of the electric power element is calculated based on the predicted moving speed; if the failure probability of the electric power element is greater than a second preset threshold, it is determined that the typhoon to be predicted poses a risk to the power system, and an early warning prompt information is sent.

[0072] Further on the basis of the above embodiment, the first trajectory parameter includes the longitude and latitude of multiple trajectory points that the typhoon to be predicted has passed through, and the trajectory parameter of the historical typhoon includes the longitude and latitude of each trajectory point included in each historical typhoon; the acquiring, according to the first trajectory parameter and the trajectory parameter of the historical typhoon, a historical typhoon that is geographically similar to the typhoon to be predicted as a geographically similar historical typhoon includes:

[0073] According to the longitudes and latitudes of the multiple track points that the to-be-forecasted typhoon has passed through, and the longitudes and latitudes of the track points included in each historical typhoon, obtain the following:

[0074] as the geographically similar historical typhoon; wherein la(i, j) is the latitude of the jth trajectory point of the ith historical typhoon; lap(j) is the latitude of the jth trajectory point that the typhoon to be predicted has passed; lo(i, j) is the longitude of the jth trajectory point of the ith historical typhoon; lop(j) is the longitude of the jth trajectory point that the typhoon to be predicted has passed; maxdla and maxdlo are the edge latitude and edge longitude corresponding to the preset judgment area.

[0075] Specifically, maxdla and maxdlo are the edge latitude and edge longitude corresponding to the preset judgment area. The size setting of the edge latitude and edge longitude of the preset judgment area is very important. Although a small setting of the preset judgment area will increase the accuracy of the prediction, the prediction result may not be obtained. Setting the preset judgment area too large will reduce the accuracy of the prediction result.

[0076] On the basis of the above embodiment, further, according to the first trajectory parameter, the second trajectory parameter and the preset trajectory time period, calculating the similarity of the moving direction and speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted, including:

[0077] Calculating a first moving speed and a second moving speed of the typhoon to be predicted according to the first trajectory parameter and the preset trajectory time period; the first moving speed is a speed of the typhoon to be predicted perpendicular to the latitude direction, and the second moving speed is a speed of the typhoon to be predicted perpendicular to the meridian direction;

[0078] Specifically, the preset track time period is the time period that the typhoon experiences from one track point to the next adjacent track point, which is 6 hours. Therefore, Figure 2 As shown in the figure, the distance between two adjacent track points is very small relative to the earth, so the track can be flattened. At the same time, the moving speed of the typhoon to be predicted is vector-decomposed into two directions: perpendicular to the latitude and perpendicular to the longitude, namely the first moving speed and the second moving speed, namely:

[0079] According to the formula:

[0080]

[0081] Calculate the first moving speed of the typhoon to be predicted, where vap(j) is the first moving speed between the j-th trajectory point to the j+1-th trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; lap(j+1) is the latitude of the j+1-th trajectory point passed by the typhoon to be predicted; lap(j) is the latitude of the j-th trajectory point passed by the typhoon to be predicted; and dt is a preset trajectory time period.

[0082] According to the formula:

[0083]

[0084] Calculate the second moving speed of the typhoon to be predicted, where vop(j) is the second moving speed between the j-th trajectory point to the j+1-th trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; lap(j+1) is the longitude of the j+1-th trajectory point passed by the typhoon to be predicted; lap(j) is the longitude of the j-th trajectory point passed by the typhoon to be predicted; dt is a preset trajectory time period.

[0085] According to the second trajectory parameter and the preset trajectory time period, a third moving speed and a fourth moving speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon are calculated; the third moving speed is the speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon perpendicular to the latitude direction, and the fourth moving speed is the speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon perpendicular to the meridian direction;

[0086] Specifically, the moving speeds of two adjacent track points of geographically similar historical typhoons are also vector-decomposed into speeds perpendicular to the latitude and perpendicular to the longitude, namely the third moving speed and the fourth moving speed, that is:

[0087] According to the formula:

[0088]

[0089] Calculate the third moving speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon; wherein, va(i, j) is the third moving speed between the j-th trajectory point to the j+1-th trajectory point of the ith geographically similar historical typhoon; la(i, j+1) is the latitude of the j+1-th trajectory point of the ith geographically similar historical typhoon; la(i, j) is the latitude of the j-th trajectory point of the ith geographically similar historical typhoon; dt is the preset trajectory time period.

[0090] And, according to the formula:

[0091]

[0092] Calculate the fourth movement speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon; vo(i, j) is the fourth movement speed between the jth trajectory point to the j+1th trajectory point of the ith geographically similar historical typhoon; lo(i, j) is the longitude of the j+1th trajectory point of the ith geographically similar historical typhoon; lo(i, j) is the longitude of the j+1th trajectory point of the ith geographically similar historical typhoon; dt is the preset trajectory time period.

[0093] Calculate a first average speed difference between the to-be-forecasted typhoon and the geographically similar historical typhoon according to the first moving speed and the third moving speed; the first average speed difference is an average speed difference perpendicular to the latitude direction;

[0094] Specifically, according to the formula:

[0095] Δva(i,j)=|va(i,j)-vap(i,j)|

[0096] Calculate the speed difference between each geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted perpendicular to the latitude direction; wherein, Δva(i, j) is the speed difference between the jth track point of the ith geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted perpendicular to the latitude direction; va(i, j) is the third moving speed between the jth track point to the j+1th track point of the ith geographically similar historical typhoon; vap(i, j) is the first moving speed between the typhoon to be predicted and the j+1th track point corresponding to the ith geographically similar historical typhoon. Since the typhoon to be predicted usually has multiple track points, there are also multiple speed differences between each geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted perpendicular to the latitude direction. The average value is the first average speed difference between the typhoon to be predicted and the geographically similar historical typhoon, that is:

[0097] According to the formula:

[0098]

[0099] Calculate the first average speed difference; wherein, aΔva(i) is the average speed difference perpendicular to the latitude direction between the i-th geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted; Δva(i, j) is the speed difference perpendicular to the latitude direction between the j-th trajectory point of the i-th geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted; length(vap) is the number of trajectory segments corresponding to the typhoon to be predicted, which is the number of trajectory points it has passed through minus 1.

[0100] Calculate the second average speed difference between the to-be-forecasted typhoon and the geographically similar historical typhoon according to the second moving speed and the fourth moving speed; the second average speed difference is the average speed difference perpendicular to the meridian direction;

[0101] Specifically, according to the formula:

[0102] Δvo(i,j)=|vo(i,j)-vop(i,j)|

[0103] Calculate the speed difference perpendicular to the meridian direction between each geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted; wherein, Δvo(i, j) is the speed difference perpendicular to the meridian direction between the jth track point of the ith geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted; vo(i, j) is the fourth moving speed between the jth track point to the j+1th track point of the ith geographically similar historical typhoon; vop(i, j) is the second moving speed between the typhoon to be predicted and the typhoon to be predicted corresponding to the i-th geographically similar historical typhoon and the j+1th track point. Since the typhoon to be predicted usually has multiple track points, there are also multiple speed differences perpendicular to the meridian direction between each geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted. The average value is the second average speed difference between the typhoon to be predicted and the geographically similar historical typhoon, that is:

[0104] According to the formula:

[0105]

[0106] Calculate the second average speed difference; wherein, aΔvo(i) is the average speed difference perpendicular to the longitude direction between the i-th geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted; Δvo(i, j) is the speed difference perpendicular to the longitude direction between the j-th trajectory point of the i-th geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted; length(vop)=length(vap).

[0107] The first average speed difference and the second average speed difference are respectively normalized to obtain the first similarity and the second similarity between the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted.

[0108] Specifically, in order to obtain the similarity parameter, the first average speed difference and the second average speed difference are normalized, and finally the similarity of the direction and speed perpendicular to the latitude and perpendicular to the longitude is obtained, that is, the first similarity and the second similarity. Specifically, according to the formula:

[0109]

[0110]

[0111] The first similarity and the second similarity are calculated respectively; wherein VASI(i) is the first similarity between the i-th geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted, and its value ranges from 0 to 1; min(aΔva) is the minimum value of the first average speed difference between the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted; max(aΔva) is the maximum value of the first average speed difference between the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted; VOSI(i) is the second similarity between the i-th geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted, and its value ranges from 0 to 1; min(aΔvo) is the minimum value of the second average speed difference between the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted; max(aΔvo) is the maximum value of the second average speed difference between the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted.

[0112] On the basis of the above embodiment, according to the similarity of the moving direction and speed, the target similar historical typhoon and its corresponding third trajectory parameter are selected from the geographically similar historical typhoons, and the similarity weight of the target similar historical typhoon is calculated, including:

[0113] Selecting geographically similar historical typhoons whose first similarity and second similarity are both less than a first preset threshold as the target similar historical typhoons, and obtaining third trajectory parameters corresponding to the target similar historical typhoons;

[0114] Specifically, the first preset threshold value is 0.5; the third trajectory parameter includes the longitude and latitude of multiple trajectory points included in the target similar historical typhoon.

[0115] According to the formula:

[0116]

[0117]

[0118] Calculate the first similarity weight and second similarity weight of each target similar historical typhoon respectively; wherein, kva(i) is the first similarity weight of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; VASI(i) is the first similarity of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; length(VASI) is the number of first similarities corresponding to the target similar historical typhoons; kvo(i) is the second similarity weight of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; VOSI(i) is the second similarity of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; length(VOSI) is the number of second similarities corresponding to the target similar historical typhoons.

[0119] On the basis of the above embodiment, the current movement parameter includes the movement speed and the movement angle of the current trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; the third trajectory parameter includes the longitude and latitude of multiple trajectory points included in the target similar historical typhoon; the predicted movement speed includes a first movement prediction speed and a second movement prediction speed; the calculation of the predicted movement speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted based on the current movement parameter, the similarity weight, and the third trajectory parameter includes:

[0120] Calculate the first current speed and the second current speed of the typhoon in the direction to be predicted according to the moving speed and the moving angle of the current track point of the typhoon in the direction to be predicted;

[0121] Specifically, since the current moving speed of the typhoon to be predicted is not expressed in latitude and longitude, it must be converted first. Since the distance between two adjacent trajectory points is very small relative to the earth, the trajectory is flattened, so:

[0122] vsa0=vs0*sin(θ)

[0123] vso0=vs0*cos(θ)

[0124] Among them, vsa0 is the current speed of the first moving direction of the typhoon to be predicted; vso0 is the current speed of the second moving direction of the typhoon to be predicted; vs0 is the moving speed of the current trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; θ is the moving angle of the current trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted.

[0125] According to the spherical distance formula:

[0126] L=Rarccos[cos(la1)cos(la2)cos(lo1-lo2)+sin(la1)sin(la2)]

[0127] Among them, R is the radius of the earth, which is 6371.009 km here; la1 and la2 are the latitudes of two points on the sphere; lo1 and lo2 are the longitudes of two points on the sphere; and,

[0128]

[0129] Wherein, vap(j) is the first moving speed between the jth track point and the j+1th track point of the typhoon to be predicted; lap(j+1) is the latitude of the j+1th track point that the typhoon to be predicted has passed; lap(j) is the latitude of the jth track point that the typhoon to be predicted has passed; dt is the preset track time period;

[0130] as well as,

[0131]

[0132] Wherein, vop(j) is the second moving speed between the jth track point and the j+1th track point of the typhoon to be predicted; lap(j+1) is the longitude of the j+1th track point that the typhoon to be predicted has passed; lap(j) is the longitude of the jth track point that the typhoon to be predicted has passed; dt is the preset track time period;

[0133] The calculation formulas for the current speed in the first direction and the current speed in the second direction can be obtained by combining them together:

[0134]

[0135] vo0=va0*cot(θ)

[0136] Among them, va0 is the current speed of the first moving direction of the typhoon to be predicted; vs0 is the moving speed of the current trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; θ is the moving angle of the current trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; vo0 is the current speed of the second moving direction of the typhoon to be predicted.

[0137] Calculate the first moving direction average speed and the second moving direction average speed of each of the target similar historical typhoons according to the longitudes and latitudes of the multiple trajectory points included in the target similar historical typhoons and the preset trajectory time period;

[0138] Specifically, according to the longitudes and latitudes of the multiple trajectory points included in the target similar historical typhoon and the preset trajectory time period, the first moving speed and the second moving speed of each target similar historical typhoon are calculated respectively, and the specific calculation method is similar to the above embodiment and will not be repeated here. Then, the average values ​​are calculated respectively to obtain the first moving average speed and the second moving average speed of each target similar historical typhoon.

[0139] According to the formula:

[0140]

[0141] Calculate the first moving direction predicted speed and the second moving direction predicted speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; wherein vap1 is the first moving direction predicted speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; kva(i) is the first similarity weight of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; va(i,length(lap)) is the first moving direction average speed of the i-th target similar historical typhoon, and λ is the weight factor; va0 is the current speed of the first moving direction of the typhoon to be predicted; vop1 is the second moving direction predicted speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; kvo(i) is the first similarity weight of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; vo(i,length(lap)) is the second moving direction average speed of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; vo0 is the current speed of the first moving direction of the typhoon to be predicted; the first moving direction predicted speed and the second moving direction predicted speed are the predicted speed perpendicular to the latitude direction and the predicted speed perpendicular to the longitude direction, respectively, and the first moving direction average speed and the second moving direction average speed are the average speed perpendicular to the latitude direction and the average speed perpendicular to the longitude direction, respectively.

[0142] Further on the basis of the above embodiment, the predicted position includes the predicted latitude and predicted longitude of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted; and calculating the predicted position of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted according to the first track parameter and the predicted moving speed includes:

[0143] According to the formula:

[0144] lap1=lap0+vap1*dt

[0145] lop1=lop0+vop1*dt

[0146] Calculate the predicted latitude and predicted longitude of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted; wherein, lap1 is the predicted latitude of the typhoon to be predicted, lap0 is the latitude of the current track point of the typhoon to be predicted; vap1 is the first predicted speed of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted; dt is a preset track time period; lop1 is the predicted longitude of the typhoon to be predicted, lop0 is the longitude of the current track point of the typhoon to be predicted; vop1 is the second predicted speed of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted.

[0147] On the basis of the above embodiment, further judging whether the to-be-forecasted typhoon poses a risk to the power system according to the predicted moving speed and the predicted position includes:

[0148] Calculating the predicted moving speed of the next track point of the to-be-predicted typhoon according to the first moving direction predicted speed and the second moving direction predicted speed;

[0149] According to the longitude and latitude of the current track point of the typhoon to be predicted and the predicted latitude and longitude, if it is determined that there is an electric power element between the current track point of the typhoon to be predicted and the next track point, then according to the formula:

[0150]

[0151] Calculate the probability of failure of the power element; wherein p is the probability of failure of the power element, v is the predicted moving speed, v1 is the critical speed that the power element can withstand, and a is a preset parameter;

[0152] If the power element failure probability is greater than a second preset threshold, it is determined that the predicted typhoon poses a risk to the power system.

[0153] Specifically, the universal vulnerability curve applicable to basic power components of the power system shows that each basic power component of the power system has a critical tolerance when facing extreme natural disasters. When the danger caused by extreme natural disasters is greater than this critical tolerance, the failure probability of the power component is greatly increased, which can be expressed by the formula

[0154]

[0155] Indicates. Taking the impact of typhoon weather events on power system transmission lines as an example, the transmission lines are designed with a maximum allowable wind speed v1, that is, the critical speed that the power element can withstand; it is generally believed that when the typhoon wind speed is less than v1, the failure rate of the transmission line is 0, and when the typhoon wind speed is greater than twice the critical speed that the power element can withstand, the transmission line will definitely fail. The general parameter a=0.6931.

[0156] In addition, the historical typhoon trajectories can also be used to verify the effectiveness of the prediction and early warning method for the impact of extreme weather on the power system provided by this application. The verification is carried out under the condition of maxdla=maxdlo=3.5. The number of known trajectory points that the typhoon to be predicted has gone through is 7. Since the collected data does not contain the current direction and speed of the typhoon, the average speed of the previous trajectory is used instead of the current speed. The 15 historical typhoons selected are respectively used as typhoons to be predicted, and the actual longitude and latitude of the 8th trajectory point are shown in Table 1. The predicted positions of the 8th trajectory points corresponding to the 15 historical typhoons obtained according to the prediction and early warning method for the impact of extreme weather on the power system provided by this application are shown in the table. The prediction results of the 15 historical typhoons show that the prediction and early warning method for the impact of extreme weather on the power system provided by this application has a high accuracy. For most historical typhoons, the error distance of the results is within 30km. Only Typhoon "NICHOLE" has a certain error in the prediction result due to the small number of historical typhoons with similar geography.

[0157] Table 1 Historical typhoon data

[0158]

[0159]

[0160] Table 2 Prediction results

[0161]

[0162]

[0163] Combination of the above Figure 1 and Figure 2 The method for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on the power system provided in the embodiment of the present application is introduced in detail. The following will introduce the device for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on the power system, electronic device and computer-readable storage medium provided in the embodiment of the present application in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0164] like Figure 3 As shown in the figure, this figure is a schematic diagram of the prediction and early warning device for the impact of extreme weather on the power system provided by the present application, and the device includes:

[0165] The first acquisition module 201 is used to acquire the first trajectory parameter and current movement parameter of the typhoon to be predicted;

[0166] A second acquisition module 202 is used to acquire, according to the first trajectory parameter and the trajectory parameter of the historical typhoon, a historical typhoon that is geographically similar to the typhoon to be predicted as a geographically similar historical typhoon, and acquire a second trajectory parameter of the geographically similar historical typhoon;

[0167] The first calculation module 203 is used to calculate the similarity of the direction and speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted according to the first trajectory parameter, the second trajectory parameter and the preset trajectory time period, and select a target similar historical typhoon and its corresponding third trajectory parameter from the geographically similar historical typhoons according to the direction and speed similarity, and calculate the similarity weight of the target similar historical typhoon;

[0168] A second calculation module 204 is used to calculate the predicted moving direction speed of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted according to the current moving parameter, the similarity weight, and the third track parameter, and calculate the predicted position of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted according to the first track parameter and the predicted moving direction speed;

[0169] The prediction and warning module 205 is used to determine whether the predicted typhoon poses a risk to the power system based on the predicted moving speed and the predicted position, and if so, send a warning prompt message.

[0170] The extreme weather impact prediction and early warning device for the power system provided in the embodiment of the present application can correspond to the implementation of the extreme weather impact prediction and early warning method for the power system described in the embodiment of the present application, and the above functions of each module of the device correspond to the implementation of Figure 1 For the sake of brevity, the corresponding process of the method shown will not be repeated here.

[0171] An embodiment of the present application also provides an electronic device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, the method for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on the power system as described in the above embodiment is implemented.

[0172] like Figure 4 As shown, the computer system 300 of the electronic device includes a CPU 301, which can perform various appropriate actions and processes according to the program stored in the ROM 302 or the program loaded from the storage part 308 to the RAM 303. In the RAM 303, various programs and data required for system operation are also stored. The CPU 301, the ROM 302 and the RAM 303 are connected to each other through a bus 304. The I / O interface 305 is also connected to the bus 304. Among them, CPU 301 represents a central processing unit, ROM 302 represents a read-only memory, RAM 303 represents a random access memory, and I / O represents input / output.

[0173] The following components are connected to the I / O interface 305: an input section 306 including a keyboard, a mouse, etc.; an output section 307 including a cathode ray tube, a liquid crystal display, etc., and a speaker, etc.; a storage section 308 including a hard disk, etc.; and a communication section 309 including a network interface card such as a LAN card, a modem, etc. The communication section 309 performs communication processing via a network such as the Internet. A drive 310 is also connected to the I / O interface 305 as needed. A removable medium 311, such as a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a magneto-optical disk, a semiconductor memory, etc., is installed on the drive 310 as needed, so that a computer program read therefrom is installed into the storage section 308 as needed.

[0174] In particular, the process of the method for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on the power system described in the above embodiment can be implemented as a computer software program. For example, an embodiment of the present application includes a computer program product, which includes a computer program carried on a computer-readable storage medium, and the computer program contains program code for executing the method for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on the power system described in the above embodiment. In such an embodiment, the computer program can be downloaded and installed from the network through the communication part 309, and / or installed from the removable medium 311. When the computer program is executed by the CPU 301, the above functions defined in the computer system 300 are executed.

[0175] An embodiment of the present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on the power system as described in the above embodiment is implemented.

[0176] Specifically, the computer-readable storage medium may be included in the electronic device described in the above embodiment; or it may exist independently without being assembled into the electronic device. The above computer-readable storage medium carries one or more programs, and when the above one or more programs are executed by an electronic device, the electronic device implements the method for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on the power system as described in the above embodiment.

[0177] It should be noted that the computer-readable storage medium shown in the present application may be a computer-readable signal medium or a computer-readable storage medium or any combination of the above two. The computer-readable storage medium may be, for example, but not limited to, an electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, device or device, or any combination of the above. More specific examples of computer-readable storage media may include, but are not limited to: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory, a read-only memory, an erasable programmable read-only memory, an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory, an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the above. In the present application, a computer-readable storage medium may be any tangible medium containing or storing a program that can be used by or in combination with an instruction execution system, device or device. In the present application, a computer-readable signal medium may include a data signal propagated in a baseband or as part of a carrier wave, in which a computer-readable program code is carried. This propagated data signal may take a variety of forms, including but not limited to an electromagnetic signal, an optical signal, or any suitable combination of the above.

[0178] This article uses specific examples to illustrate the principles and implementation methods of this application. The description of the above embodiments is only used to help understand the method and its core ideas of this application. The above is only the preferred implementation method of this application. It should be pointed out that due to the limitations of textual expression and the objective existence of infinite specific structures, ordinary technicians in this technical field can make several improvements, modifications or changes without departing from the principles of the present invention, and can also combine the above technical features in an appropriate manner; these improvements, modifications, changes or combinations, or the direct application of the inventive concept and technical solution to other occasions without improvement, should be regarded as the scope of protection of this application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on power systems, characterized in that: include: Obtaining the first trajectory parameters and current movement parameters of the typhoon to be predicted; According to the first trajectory parameter and the trajectory parameter of the historical typhoon, a historical typhoon that is geographically similar to the typhoon to be predicted is obtained as a geographically similar historical typhoon, and a second trajectory parameter of the geographically similar historical typhoon is obtained; According to the first trajectory parameter, the second trajectory parameter and the preset trajectory time period, the similarity of the direction and speed between the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted is calculated, and according to the direction and speed similarity, a target similar historical typhoon and its corresponding third trajectory parameter are selected from the geographically similar historical typhoons, and a similarity weight of the target similar historical typhoon is calculated; Calculating the predicted moving direction speed of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted according to the current moving parameter, the similarity weight, and the third track parameter, and calculating the predicted position of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted according to the first track parameter and the predicted moving direction speed; It is determined whether the predicted typhoon poses a risk to the power system based on the predicted moving speed and the predicted position. If so, an early warning message is sent.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The first trajectory parameter includes the longitude and latitude of multiple trajectory points that the to-be-forecasted typhoon has passed through, and the trajectory parameter of the historical typhoon includes the longitude and latitude of each trajectory point included in each historical typhoon; The acquiring, according to the first trajectory parameter and the trajectory parameter of the historical typhoon, a historical typhoon geographically similar to the typhoon to be predicted as a geographically similar historical typhoon comprises: According to the longitudes and latitudes of the multiple track points that the to-be-forecasted typhoon has passed through, and the longitudes and latitudes of the track points included in each historical typhoon, obtain the following: as the geographically similar historical typhoon; wherein, la(i,j) is the latitude of the jth trajectory point of the ith historical typhoon; lap(j) is the latitude of the jth trajectory point passed by the typhoon to be predicted; lo(i,j) is the longitude of the jth trajectory point of the ith historical typhoon; lop(j) is the longitude of the jth trajectory point passed by the typhoon to be predicted; maxdla and maxdlo are the edge latitude and edge longitude corresponding to the preset judgment area.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that Calculating the similarity of the direction and speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon and the to-be-forecasted typhoon according to the first trajectory parameter, the second trajectory parameter, and a preset trajectory time period, including: Calculating a first moving speed and a second moving speed of the typhoon to be predicted according to the first trajectory parameter and the preset trajectory time period; the first moving speed is a speed of the typhoon to be predicted perpendicular to the latitude direction, and the second moving speed is a speed of the typhoon to be predicted perpendicular to the meridian direction; According to the second trajectory parameter and the preset trajectory time period, a third moving speed and a fourth moving speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon are calculated; the third moving speed is the speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon perpendicular to the latitude direction, and the fourth moving speed is the speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon perpendicular to the meridian direction; Calculate a first average speed difference between the to-be-forecasted typhoon and the geographically similar historical typhoon according to the first moving speed and the third moving speed; the first average speed difference is an average speed difference perpendicular to the latitude direction; Calculate the second average speed difference between the to-be-forecasted typhoon and the geographically similar historical typhoon according to the second moving speed and the fourth moving speed; the second average speed difference is the average speed difference perpendicular to the meridian direction; The first average speed difference and the second average speed difference are respectively normalized to obtain a first similarity and a second similarity between the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that According to the similarity of the moving direction and speed, a target similar historical typhoon and its corresponding third track parameter are selected from the geographically similar historical typhoons, and a similarity weight of the target similar historical typhoon is calculated, including: Selecting geographically similar historical typhoons whose first similarity and second similarity are both less than a first preset threshold as the target similar historical typhoons, and obtaining third trajectory parameters corresponding to the target similar historical typhoons; According to the formula: Calculate the first similarity weight and second similarity weight of each target similar historical typhoon respectively; wherein, kva(i) is the first similarity weight of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; VASI(i) is the first similarity of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; length(VASI) is the number of first similarities corresponding to the target similar historical typhoons; kvo(i) is the second similarity weight of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; VOSI(i) is the second similarity of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; length(VOSI) is the number of second similarities corresponding to the target similar historical typhoons.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that The current movement parameter includes the movement speed and the movement angle of the current trajectory point of the to-be-predicted typhoon; the third trajectory parameter includes the longitude and latitude of multiple trajectory points included in the target similar historical typhoon; the predicted movement speed includes a first movement prediction speed and a second movement prediction speed; the calculation of the predicted movement speed of the next trajectory point of the to-be-predicted typhoon according to the current movement parameter, the similarity weight, and the third trajectory parameter includes: Calculate the first current speed and the second current speed of the typhoon in the direction to be predicted according to the moving speed and the moving angle of the current track point of the typhoon in the direction to be predicted; Calculate the first moving direction average speed and the second moving direction average speed of each of the target similar historical typhoons according to the longitudes and latitudes of the multiple trajectory points included in the target similar historical typhoons and the preset trajectory time period; According to the formula: Calculate the first moving direction predicted speed and the second moving direction predicted speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; wherein vap1 is the first moving direction predicted speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; kva(i) is the first similarity weight of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; va(i,length(lap)) is the first moving direction average speed of the i-th target similar historical typhoon, and λ is the weight factor; va0 is the current speed of the first moving direction of the typhoon to be predicted; vop1 is the second moving direction predicted speed of the next trajectory point of the typhoon to be predicted; kvo(i) is the first similarity weight of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; vo(i,length(lap)) is the second moving direction average speed of the i-th target similar historical typhoon; vo0 is the current speed of the second moving direction of the typhoon to be predicted; the first moving direction predicted speed and the second moving direction predicted speed are the predicted speed perpendicular to the latitude direction and the predicted speed perpendicular to the longitude direction, respectively, and the first moving direction average speed and the second moving direction average speed are the average speed perpendicular to the latitude direction and the average speed perpendicular to the longitude direction, respectively.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The predicted position includes the predicted latitude and longitude of the next track point of the to-be-predicted typhoon; and calculating the predicted position of the next track point of the to-be-predicted typhoon according to the first track parameter and the predicted moving direction speed, including: According to the formula: lap1=lap0+vap1*dt lop1=lop0+vop1*dt Calculate the predicted latitude and predicted longitude of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted; wherein, lap1 is the predicted latitude of the typhoon to be predicted, lap0 is the latitude of the current track point of the typhoon to be predicted; vap1 is the first predicted speed of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted; dt is a preset track time period; lop1 is the predicted longitude of the typhoon to be predicted, lop0 is the longitude of the current track point of the typhoon to be predicted; vop1 is the second predicted speed of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that Judging whether the to-be-forecasted typhoon poses a risk to the power system according to the predicted moving direction speed and the predicted position includes: Calculating the predicted moving speed of the next track point of the to-be-predicted typhoon according to the first moving direction predicted speed and the second moving direction predicted speed; According to the longitude and latitude of the current track point of the typhoon to be predicted and the predicted latitude and longitude, if it is determined that there is an electric power element between the current track point of the typhoon to be predicted and the next track point, then according to the formula: Calculate the probability of failure of the power element; wherein p is the probability of failure of the power element, v is the predicted moving speed, v1 is the critical speed that the power element can withstand, and a is a preset parameter; If the power element failure probability is greater than a second preset threshold, it is determined that the predicted typhoon poses a risk to the power system.

8. A device for predicting and warning the impact of extreme weather on power systems, characterized in that: include: A first acquisition module, used to acquire first trajectory parameters and current movement parameters of the typhoon to be predicted; A second acquisition module is used to acquire, according to the first trajectory parameter and the trajectory parameter of the historical typhoon, a historical typhoon that is geographically similar to the typhoon to be predicted as a geographically similar historical typhoon, and acquire a second trajectory parameter of the geographically similar historical typhoon; a first calculation module, configured to calculate the similarity of the direction and speed of the geographically similar historical typhoon and the typhoon to be predicted according to the first trajectory parameter, the second trajectory parameter, and a preset trajectory time period, and to select a target similar historical typhoon and its corresponding third trajectory parameter from the geographically similar historical typhoons according to the direction and speed similarity, and calculate a similarity weight of the target similar historical typhoon; a second calculation module, configured to calculate a predicted moving direction speed of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted according to the current moving parameter, the similarity weight, and the third track parameter, and calculate a predicted position of the next track point of the typhoon to be predicted according to the first track parameter and the predicted moving direction speed; The prediction and warning module is used to determine whether the predicted typhoon poses a risk to the power system based on the predicted moving speed and the predicted position, and if so, send a warning prompt message.

9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that: When the processor executes the computer program, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

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