Water conservancy disaster prevention and control method and system considering generated power and meteorological characteristics

Abstract

The invention relates to a water conservancy disaster prevention and control method and system considering generation power and meteorological characteristics. The method comprises the following steps: collecting meteorological data of an area and hydropower station operation data; constructing a meteorological prediction model, and inputting the meteorological data of the region into the meteorological prediction model to obtain a meteorological prediction result of the region; constructing a comprehensive water conservancy disaster risk assessment model based on the meteorological prediction result of the region and the hydropower station operation data, and assessing the water conservancy disaster risk of the region through the comprehensive water conservancy disaster risk assessment model to obtain a water conservancy disaster risk score of the region; a plurality of water conservancy disaster risk levels are set, each water conservancy disaster risk level corresponds to one water conservancy disaster risk scoring interval, the water conservancy disaster risk level of the current area is judged according to the water conservancy disaster risk scores, and corresponding protection measures are executed.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to a method and system for preventing and controlling water disasters taking into account power generation and meteorological characteristics, and belongs to the technical field of water disaster management. Background Art

[0002] Existing water disaster prevention and power generation dispatching technologies mainly rely on hydrological forecasts and traditional reservoir dispatching rules, and formulate flood defense and power production plans by predicting rainfall, inflow flow and reservoir capacity changes; at the same time, unit combination optimization often uses linear programming, heuristic algorithms, etc., combined with minimum output, start-stop times and ramp rate limits, in an effort to improve power generation efficiency while meeting safety requirements. However, existing technologies still have shortcomings in dealing with extreme meteorological events and coupling multiple meteorological elements with power generation needs:

[0003] First, the interaction between meteorological factors and power generation scheduling is not deep enough. Most scheduling models simplify meteorological data into input rainfall or temperature, and do not pay enough attention to the impact of wind speed, ice, extreme cold and other factors on reservoir operation and unit efficiency, making it difficult to respond to the risks brought by special weather in a timely manner. Secondly, risk assessment indicators tend to be biased towards flood safety or power revenue. There is a lack of a comprehensive risk function that can reflect the uncertainty of incoming water and quantify the impact of extreme weather on unit operation, making it difficult to take into account the needs of multiple parties. Third, in actual scheduling, unit start-up and shutdown and output adjustment often only consider traditional reservoir scheduling curves and load requirements. There is a lack of flexible mechanisms for drainage, deicing, pre-discharge and other needs caused by sudden extreme cold or heavy rain, and it is difficult to achieve a high degree of coupling with real-time weather forecasts. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to solve the above problems existing in the prior art, the present invention proposes a method and system for preventing and controlling water disasters taking into account power generation and meteorological characteristics.

[0005] The technical solution of the present invention is as follows:

[0006] On the one hand, the present invention provides a method for preventing and controlling water disasters taking into account power generation and meteorological characteristics, comprising the following steps:

[0007] Collect regional meteorological data and hydropower station operation data;

[0008] Construct a meteorological prediction model, input the regional meteorological data into the meteorological prediction model to obtain the meteorological prediction results for the region;

[0009] A comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model is constructed based on the regional meteorological forecast results and hydropower station operation data. The water disaster risk in the region is assessed through the comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model to obtain the water disaster risk score of the region.

[0010] Set multiple water disaster risk levels, each water disaster risk level corresponds to a water disaster risk score range, and judge the water disaster risk level of the current area according to the water disaster risk score and implement corresponding protection measures.

[0011] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the weather forecast model is constructed based on a long short-term memory network.

[0012] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model is specifically shown in the following formula:

[0013]

[0014] Where: Λ(t) represents the water disaster risk score of the region at time t; M r (t) represents the meteorological disaster coefficient of the region at time t; R p (t) represents the weather forecast result of the region at time t; L res (t) represents the proportion of the reservoir water level of the hydropower station to the full storage capacity at time t; P gen (t) represents the power generation of the hydropower station at time t; P max represents the maximum power generation capacity of the hydropower station; α1 and α2 represent weight coefficients.

[0015] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the calculation formula of the power generation of the hydropower station is:

[0016]

[0017] Where: Q in (t) represents the inflow of the hydropower station reservoir at time t; ΔH(t) represents the effective water head of the hydropower station at time t; W speed (t) represents the wind speed in the area at time t; T air (t) represents the temperature of the region at time t; Ω(t) represents the special meteorological correction coefficient; β represents the adjustment coefficient.

[0018] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a water disaster prevention and control system taking into account power generation and meteorological characteristics, including a data acquisition module, a meteorological forecast module, a water disaster risk assessment module, and a water disaster grade classification module;

[0019] The data acquisition module is used to collect regional meteorological data and hydropower station operation data;

[0020] The meteorological forecast module is used to construct a meteorological forecast model, and input the meteorological data of the region into the meteorological forecast model to obtain the meteorological forecast result of the region;

[0021] The water disaster risk assessment module is used to construct a comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model based on the regional meteorological forecast results and the hydropower station operation data, and to assess the water disaster risk in the region through the comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model to obtain the water disaster risk score of the region;

[0022] The water disaster level classification module is used to set multiple water disaster risk levels, each water disaster risk level corresponds to a water disaster risk score interval, and the water disaster risk level of the current area is determined according to the water disaster risk score and corresponding protective measures are implemented.

[0023] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the weather forecast model is constructed based on a long short-term memory network.

[0024] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model is specifically shown in the following formula:

[0025]

[0026] Where: Λ(t) represents the water disaster risk score of the region at time t; M r (t) represents the meteorological disaster coefficient of the region at time t; R p (t) represents the weather forecast result of the region at time t; L res (t) represents the proportion of the reservoir water level of the hydropower station to the full storage capacity at time t; P gen (t) represents the power generation of the hydropower station at time t; P max represents the maximum power generation capacity of the hydropower station; α1 and α2 represent weight coefficients.

[0027] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the calculation formula of the power generation of the hydropower station is:

[0028]

[0029] Where: Q in (t) represents the inflow of the hydropower station reservoir at time t; ΔH(t) represents the effective water head of the hydropower station at time t; W speed (t) represents the wind speed in the area at time t; T air (t) represents the temperature of the region at time t; Ω(t) represents the special meteorological correction coefficient; β represents the adjustment coefficient.

[0030] On the other hand, the present invention further provides an electronic device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the method described in any embodiment of the present invention when executing the program.

[0031] In yet another aspect, the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the method described in any embodiment of the present invention.

[0032] The present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0033] 1. The present invention adopts a comprehensive risk index to unify water level, rainfall intensity, power generation uncertainty and special event factors into the same framework to help identify water conservancy risks. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0034] Figure 1 The figure is a flow chart of the method of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0035] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0036] It should be understood that the step numbers used in this document are only for convenience of description and are not intended to limit the order in which the steps are executed.

[0037] It should be understood that the terms used in the present specification are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the present invention. As used in the present specification and the appended claims, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, the singular forms "a", "an" and "the" are intended to include plural forms.

[0038] The terms “include” and “comprising” indicate the presence of described features, integers, steps, operations, elements and / or components, but do not exclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components and / or combinations thereof.

[0039] The term "and / or" means and includes any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.

[0040] Embodiment 1:

[0041] See also Figure 1 , a method for preventing and controlling water disasters taking into account power generation and meteorological characteristics, comprising the following steps:

[0042] Collect regional meteorological data and hydropower station operation data;

[0043] Construct a meteorological prediction model, input the regional meteorological data into the meteorological prediction model to obtain the meteorological prediction results for the region;

[0044] A comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model is constructed based on the regional meteorological forecast results and hydropower station operation data. The water disaster risk in the region is assessed through the comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model to obtain the water disaster risk score of the region.

[0045] Set multiple water disaster risk levels, each water disaster risk level corresponds to a water disaster risk score range, and judge the water disaster risk level of the current area according to the water disaster risk score and implement corresponding protection measures.

[0046] As a preferred implementation of this embodiment, the weather forecast model is constructed based on a long short-term memory network, and the weather forecast results include temperature, rainfall, wind speed, air pressure, etc.

[0047] As a preferred implementation of this embodiment, the comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model is specifically shown in the following formula:

[0048]

[0049] Where: Λ(t) represents the water disaster risk score of the region at time t; M r (t) represents the meteorological disaster coefficient of the region at time t; R p (t) represents the weather forecast result of the region at time t; L res (t) represents the proportion of the reservoir water level of the hydropower station to the full storage capacity at time t; P gen (t) represents the power generation of the hydropower station at time t; P max represents the maximum power generation of the hydropower station; α1 and α2 represent weight coefficients;

[0050] As a preferred implementation of this embodiment, the calculation formula of the meteorological disaster coefficient is:

[0051]

[0052] Among them: θ1, θ2 represent weight coefficients; τ p (t) represents the precipitation type at time t (such as rain, snow, hail, etc.), which can be assigned by segmentation or table; δ represents the precipitation correction factor; P atm (t) represents the air pressure at time t; P atm,0 It represents the reference air pressure value (such as standard atmospheric pressure 1013hPa). It is generally believed that low pressure systems are more likely to be accompanied by heavy rainfall and storms.

[0053] As a preferred implementation of this embodiment, the calculation formula for the power generation of the hydropower station is:

[0054]

[0055] Where: Q in (t) represents the inflow of the hydropower station reservoir at time t; ΔH(t) represents the effective water head of the hydropower station at time t; W speed (t) represents the wind speed in the area at time t; T air (t) represents the temperature of the region at time t; Ω(t) represents the special meteorological correction coefficient; β represents the adjustment coefficient;

[0056] In this embodiment, the calculation formula of the special weather correction coefficient is specifically:

[0057]

[0058] Where: Θ cold (t) represents the extreme cold correction function; Θ heat (t) represents the extreme heat correction function; Θ ice (t) represents the ice correction function; Θ k (t) represents the correction function of other special climates (such as sandstorms, extreme droughts, fog and freezing, thunderstorms, etc.); K represents the number of other special climates; δ cold , δ heat , δ ice , δ k Respectively represent the corresponding weight functions;

[0059] The extreme cold correction function is specifically shown in the following formula:

[0060]

[0061] in: Indicates the extreme cold threshold, such as 0℃, -5℃, etc., which can be set according to the local extreme temperature; β dur (t) represents the correction factor of the duration of extreme cold. For example, the longer the low temperature lasts, the greater the damage. σ1 and σ2 represent the adjustment coefficients.

[0062] The extreme heat correction function is specifically shown in the following formula:

[0063]

[0064] in: Indicates extreme heat threshold, such as 35℃, 40℃, etc.; H rel (t) is the relative humidity coefficient, which is used to indicate the degree of humidity and heat; σ3 and σ4 are humidity adjustment coefficients;

[0065] The ice correction function is specifically shown in the following formula:

[0066]

[0067] in: Indicates an indicator function. This item will be triggered only when the temperature is below freezing (such as 0℃ or -1℃); R r (t) represents precipitation; Q flow (t) represents the reservoir flow rate; ψ flow It represents the water flow rate correction function, which can mean "the faster the water flows, the easier it is to form ice jams or ice dams or the more serious they are".

[0068] Embodiment 2:

[0069] A water disaster prevention and control system taking into account power generation and meteorological characteristics, comprising a data acquisition module, a meteorological forecast module, a water disaster risk assessment module and a water disaster grade classification module;

[0070] The data acquisition module is used to collect regional meteorological data and hydropower station operation data;

[0071] The meteorological forecast module is used to construct a meteorological forecast model, and input the meteorological data of the region into the meteorological forecast model to obtain the meteorological forecast result of the region;

[0072] The water disaster risk assessment module is used to construct a comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model based on the regional meteorological forecast results and the hydropower station operation data, and to assess the water disaster risk in the region through the comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model to obtain the water disaster risk score of the region;

[0073] The water disaster level classification module is used to set multiple water disaster risk levels, each water disaster risk level corresponds to a water disaster risk score interval, and the water disaster risk level of the current area is determined according to the water disaster risk score and corresponding protective measures are implemented.

[0074] As a preferred implementation of this embodiment, the weather forecast model is constructed based on a long short-term memory network.

[0075] As a preferred implementation of this embodiment, the comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model is specifically shown in the following formula:

[0076]

[0077] Where: Λ(t) represents the water disaster risk score of the region at time t; M r (t) represents the meteorological disaster coefficient of the region at time t; R p (t) represents the weather forecast result of the region at time t; L res (t) represents the proportion of the reservoir water level of the hydropower station to the full storage capacity at time t; P gen(t) represents the power generation of the hydropower station at time t; P max represents the maximum power generation capacity of the hydropower station; α1 and α2 represent weight coefficients.

[0078] As a preferred implementation of this embodiment, the calculation formula for the power generation of the hydropower station is:

[0079]

[0080] Where: Q in (t) represents the inflow of the hydropower station reservoir at time t; ΔH(t) represents the effective water head of the hydropower station at time t; W speed (t) represents the wind speed in the area at time t; T air (t) represents the temperature of the region at time t; Ω(t) represents the special meteorological correction coefficient; β represents the adjustment coefficient.

[0081] The system is used to implement the method in Example 1, which will not be described in detail here.

[0082] Embodiment three:

[0083] This embodiment provides an electronic device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the method described in any embodiment of the present invention when executing the program.

[0084] Embodiment 4:

[0085] This embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium on which a computer program is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, the method described in any embodiment of the present invention is implemented.

[0086] In the embodiments of the present application, "at least one" refers to one or more, and "more than one" refers to two or more. "And / or" describes the association relationship of associated objects, indicating that three relationships may exist. For example, A and / or B can represent the existence of A alone, the existence of A and B at the same time, and the existence of B alone. Among them, A and B can be singular or plural. The character " / " generally indicates that the previous and next associated objects are in an "or" relationship. "At least one of the following" and similar expressions refer to any combination of these items, including any combination of single or plural items. For example, at least one of a, b and c can be represented by: a, b, c, a and b, a and c, b and c, or a and b and c, where a, b, c can be single or multiple.

[0087] Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the various units and algorithm steps described in the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented in a combination of electronic hardware, computer software, and electronic hardware. Whether these functions are performed in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Professional and technical personnel can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered to be beyond the scope of this application.

[0088] Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that, for the convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the systems, devices and units described above can refer to the corresponding processes in the aforementioned method embodiments and will not be repeated here.

[0089] In several embodiments provided in the present application, if any function is implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as an independent product, it can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present application, or the part that contributes to the prior art or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present application. The aforementioned storage medium includes: U disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (Read-Only Memory; hereinafter referred to as: ROM), random access memory (Random Access Memory; hereinafter referred to as: RAM), disk or optical disk, and other media that can store program codes.

[0090] The above descriptions are merely embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the patent scope of the present invention. Any equivalent structure or equivalent process transformation made using the contents of the present invention specification and drawings, or directly or indirectly applied in other related technical fields, are also included in the patent protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for preventing and controlling water disasters taking into account power generation and meteorological characteristics, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Collect regional meteorological data and hydropower station operation data; Construct a meteorological prediction model, input the regional meteorological data into the meteorological prediction model to obtain the meteorological prediction results for the region; A comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model is constructed based on the regional meteorological forecast results and hydropower station operation data. The water disaster risk in the region is assessed through the comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model to obtain the water disaster risk score of the region. Set multiple water disaster risk levels, each water disaster risk level corresponds to a water disaster risk score range, and judge the water disaster risk level of the current area according to the water disaster risk score and implement corresponding protection measures.

2. A method for preventing and controlling water disasters taking into account power generation and meteorological characteristics according to claim 1, characterized in that: The weather forecast model is constructed based on a long short-term memory network.

3. A method for preventing and controlling water disasters taking into account power generation and meteorological characteristics according to claim 1, characterized in that: The comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model is specifically shown in the following formula: Where: Λ(t) represents the water disaster risk score of the region at time t; M r (t) represents the meteorological disaster coefficient of the region at time t; R p (t) represents the weather forecast result of the region at time t; L res (t) represents the proportion of the reservoir water level of the hydropower station to the full storage capacity at time t; P gen (t) represents the power generation of the hydropower station at time t; P max represents the maximum power generation capacity of the hydropower station; α1 and α2 represent weight coefficients.

4. A method for preventing and controlling water disasters taking into account power generation and meteorological characteristics according to claim 3, characterized in that: The calculation formula for the power generation of a hydropower station is: Where: Q in (t) represents the inflow of the hydropower station reservoir at time t; ΔH(t) represents the effective water head of the hydropower station at time t; W speed (t) represents the wind speed in the area at time t; T air (t) represents the temperature of the region at time t; Ω(t) represents the special meteorological correction coefficient; β represents the adjustment coefficient.

5. A water disaster prevention and control system taking into account power generation and meteorological characteristics, characterized in that: It includes data collection module, weather forecast module, water disaster risk assessment module and water disaster grade classification module; The data acquisition module is used to collect regional meteorological data and hydropower station operation data; The meteorological forecast module is used to construct a meteorological forecast model, and input the meteorological data of the region into the meteorological forecast model to obtain the meteorological forecast result of the region; The water disaster risk assessment module is used to construct a comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model based on the regional meteorological forecast results and the hydropower station operation data, and to assess the water disaster risk in the region through the comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model to obtain the water disaster risk score of the region; The water disaster level classification module is used to set multiple water disaster risk levels, each water disaster risk level corresponds to a water disaster risk score interval, and the water disaster risk level of the current area is determined according to the water disaster risk score and corresponding protective measures are implemented.

6. A water disaster prevention and control system considering power generation and meteorological characteristics according to claim 5, characterized in that: The weather forecast model is constructed based on a long short-term memory network.

7. A water disaster prevention and control system considering power generation and meteorological characteristics according to claim 5, characterized in that: The comprehensive water disaster risk assessment model is specifically shown in the following formula: Where: Λ(t) represents the water disaster risk score of the region at time t; M r (t) represents the meteorological disaster coefficient of the region at time t; R p (t) represents the weather forecast result of the region at time t; L res (t) represents the proportion of the reservoir water level of the hydropower station to the full storage capacity at time t; P gen (t) represents the power generation of the hydropower station at time t; P max represents the maximum power generation capacity of the hydropower station; α1 and α2 represent weight coefficients.

8. A water disaster prevention and control system considering power generation and meteorological characteristics according to claim 7, characterized in that: The calculation formula for the power generation of a hydropower station is: Where: Q in (t) represents the inflow of the hydropower station reservoir at time t; ΔH(t) represents the effective water head of the hydropower station at time t; W speed (t) represents the wind speed in the area at time t; T air (t) represents the temperature of the region at time t; Ω(t) represents the special meteorological correction coefficient; β represents the adjustment coefficient.

9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that: When the processor executes the program, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the program is executed by a processor, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

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