Method and device for evaluating influence of trade uncertainty on economy, equipment and medium

Abstract

The invention provides a method and device for evaluating the influence of trade uncertainty on economy, equipment and a medium. The method comprises the following steps: obtaining an import amount, an export amount, a trade uncertainty index and control variable information of a target department in a target object in a preset time period, and determining an import trade uncertainty influence coefficient; obtaining a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix according to the input-output information of the target object in a preset time period; according to the import trade uncertainty influence coefficient, the direct consumption coefficient matrix and the inverse matrix, determining an influence coefficient, an inductivity coefficient and global influence information; determining GDP influence information according to the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient and the global influence information; and according to the GDP information and the GDP influence information of the target object, obtaining an evaluation result of the influence of the trade uncertainty of the target object on the economy. According to the method provided by the invention, the evaluation effect of the trade uncertainty on the economic influence is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of trade data analysis and processing, and in particular to a method, device, equipment and medium for evaluating the economic impact of trade uncertainty. Background Art

[0002] Trade policy uncertainty has become an important topic in scientific research and real development. The world is full of uncertainty under great changes. How to understand and grasp the uncertainty in trade policy is of great significance to cope with the complex and changing international environment, strengthen the two international and domestic cycles, utilize international resources, and actively promote a new development pattern.

[0003] Currently, the impact of trade uncertainty on the economy is generally simulated by building macroeconomic models. Macroeconomic models are usually built based on a series of assumptions and require statistics and analysis of a large amount of data.

[0004] However, the existing methods for assessing the economic impact of trade uncertainty have the problem of poor assessment results. Summary of the invention

[0005] The embodiments of the present application provide a method, device, equipment and medium for evaluating the economic impact of trade uncertainty, so as to solve the problem that the existing methods for evaluating the economic impact of trade uncertainty are not effective in evaluation.

[0006] In a first aspect, the present application provides a method for evaluating the impact of trade uncertainty on the economy, comprising:

[0007] Obtain the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target sector in the target object within a preset time period;

[0008] According to the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index and control variable information of the target sector in the target object within a preset time period, determine the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient representing the quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export amount;

[0009] According to the input-output information of the target object in the preset time period, a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are obtained, wherein the row elements and column elements of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are determined according to the department information in the target object, and the elements in the direct consumption coefficient matrix are determined according to the relationship between the direct consumption and output between the two departments in the input-output information;

[0010] According to the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient, the direct consumption coefficient matrix, and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix, determine the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the target sector on the direct consumption of other sectors;

[0011] Determine GDP impact information based on the influence coefficient, sensitivity coefficient, and global impact information of the target sector’s direct consumption on other sectors;

[0012] According to the GDP information and GDP impact information of the target object within the preset time period, the economic impact assessment result of the trade uncertainty of the target object is obtained.

[0013] In the embodiment of the present application, according to the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target department in the target object within a preset time period, the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient representing the quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export amount is determined, including:

[0014] The export amount of the target sector in the target object within the preset time period is used as the dependent variable, the import amount, the trade uncertainty index, and the control variable information are used as independent variables, and input into the preset multiple linear regression model to obtain the independent variable coefficient set;

[0015] According to the set of independent variable coefficients, the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient is obtained, which represents the quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export volume.

[0016] In the embodiment of the present application, according to the input-output information of the target object within the preset time period, a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are obtained, including:

[0017] According to the input-output information of the target object within the preset time period, the target department's direct consumption information on other departments and the output information of the target department are obtained;

[0018] Divide the target department's direct consumption information on other departments and the target department's output information to obtain the direct consumption coefficient;

[0019] According to the department information and direct consumption coefficients in the target object, a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are obtained.

[0020] In the embodiment of the present application, according to the department information and the direct consumption coefficient in the target object, a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are obtained, including:

[0021] According to the department information and direct consumption coefficients in the target object, the direct consumption coefficient matrix is ​​obtained;

[0022] The direct consumption coefficient is processed by inverse Leontief coefficient to obtain the complete demand consumption coefficient;

[0023] According to the department information and complete demand consumption coefficient in the target object, the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix is ​​obtained.

[0024] In the embodiment of the present application, the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the target department's direct consumption on other departments are determined according to the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient, the direct consumption coefficient matrix, and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix, including:

[0025] According to the inverse matrix and the target division, the target row element information of the inverse matrix and the target column element information of the inverse matrix are obtained;

[0026] The inverse matrix target row element information and the inverse matrix target column element information are summed up respectively to obtain the inverse matrix target row element summation information and the inverse matrix target column element summation information;

[0027] The complete demand consumption coefficients are summed to obtain the inverse matrix coefficient sum information;

[0028] Divide the sum of the inverse matrix coefficients and the number of elements in the inverse matrix to obtain average consumption information;

[0029] According to the summation information of the inverse matrix target row elements, the summation information of the inverse matrix target column elements and the average consumption information, the influence coefficient and the sensitivity coefficient are obtained;

[0030] According to the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient and direct consumption coefficient matrix, the global impact information of the target sector on the direct consumption of other sectors is obtained.

[0031] In the embodiment of the present application, the global impact information of the target sector on the direct consumption of other sectors is obtained based on the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient and the direct consumption coefficient matrix, including:

[0032] According to the direct consumption coefficient matrix and the target department, the target row element information is obtained;

[0033] Performing sum processing on the target row element information to obtain the target row element sum information;

[0034] The import trade uncertainty impact coefficient and the target row element summation information are multiplied to obtain the global impact information of the target sector on the direct consumption of other sectors.

[0035] In the embodiment of the present application, the GDP impact information is determined based on the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the target department's direct consumption on other departments, including:

[0036] The influence coefficient and the sensitivity coefficient are multiplied to obtain the comprehensive influence induction coefficient;

[0037] The comprehensive impact induction coefficient and the global impact information of the target sector's direct consumption on other sectors are multiplied to obtain GDP impact information.

[0038] In a second aspect, the present application provides a device for evaluating the impact of trade uncertainty on the economy, comprising:

[0039] An acquisition module is used to acquire the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target sector in the target object within a preset time period;

[0040] A first determination module is used to determine an import trade uncertainty impact coefficient representing a quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export amount according to the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target sector in the target object within a preset time period;

[0041] The first obtaining module is used to obtain a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix according to the input-output information of the target object within a preset time period, wherein the row elements and column elements of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are determined according to the department information in the target object, and the elements in the direct consumption coefficient matrix are determined according to the relationship between direct consumption and output between two departments in the input-output information;

[0042] The second determination module is used to determine the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the target sector's direct consumption on other sectors based on the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient, the direct consumption coefficient matrix, and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix;

[0043] The third determination module is used to determine the GDP impact information based on the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the target sector's direct consumption on other sectors;

[0044] The second obtaining module is used to obtain the evaluation result of the economic impact of trade uncertainty on the target object according to the GDP information and GDP impact information of the target object in a preset time period. In a third aspect, the present application provides a device, including: a processor, and a memory connected to the processor in communication;

[0045] Memory stores computer-executable instructions;

[0046] The processor executes the computer-executable instructions stored in the memory to implement the method for evaluating the economic impact of trade uncertainty in the embodiment of the present application.

[0047] In a fourth aspect, a computer-readable storage medium stores computer execution instructions, which, when executed by a processor, are used to implement the method for evaluating the economic impact of trade uncertainty in an embodiment of the present application.

[0048] In a fifth aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a computer program product, including a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the above first aspect and / or various possible implementation manners of the first aspect.

[0049] The method, device, equipment and medium for evaluating the impact of trade uncertainty provided by the present application measure the impact of the change in the export volume of a certain sector on the output consumption of other sectors through the trade uncertainty impact coefficient and input-output information, and further deduce the impact on GDP. According to the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient and input-output information, the global impact information of the change in the export volume of the target sector on the direct consumption of other sectors is obtained, and then the sensitivity coefficient and influence coefficient are obtained according to the input-output information. The global impact information is processed by comprehensively considering the sensitivity coefficient and influence coefficient to obtain the impact of the change in the export volume of the target sector on GDP and the ratio of the impact on GDP to the total GDP, so as to achieve the effect of evaluating the impact of trade uncertainty on the economy. Brief Description of the Drawings

[0050] The drawings here are incorporated into the specification and form a part of the specification, showing embodiments consistent with the present application, and are used together with the specification to explain the principles of the present application.

[0051] Figure 1 It is a schematic flowchart of the method for evaluating the impact of trade uncertainty provided by an embodiment of the present application;

[0052] Figure 2 It is a schematic flowchart of another method for evaluating the impact of trade uncertainty provided by an embodiment of the present application;

[0053] Figure 3 It is a schematic structural diagram of the device for evaluating the impact of trade uncertainty provided by an embodiment of the present application;

[0054] Figure 4 It is a schematic structural diagram of the equipment provided by an embodiment of the present application.

[0055] Through the above drawings, the clear embodiments of the present application have been shown, and there will be more detailed descriptions hereinafter. These drawings and text descriptions are not intended to limit the scope of the concept of the present application in any way, but to illustrate the concept of the present application to those skilled in the art by referring to specific embodiments. Detailed Embodiments

[0056] Exemplary embodiments will be described in detail herein, examples of which are shown in the accompanying drawings. When the following description refers to the drawings, the same numbers in different drawings represent the same or similar elements unless otherwise indicated. The implementations described in the following exemplary embodiments do not represent all implementations consistent with the present application. Instead, they are merely examples of devices and methods consistent with some aspects of the present application as detailed in the appended claims.

[0057] First, the terms involved in this application are explained:

[0058] Trade uncertainty: refers to various uncertain factors that affect international trade activities. These factors may originate from multiple levels such as policies, economy, politics, and market, and may have a profound impact on import and export companies, multinational corporations, and even the entire economic system;

[0059] GDP (Gross Domestic Product) refers to the final result of the production activities of all permanent units in a country (or region) over a certain period of time. GDP is the core indicator of national economic accounting and an important indicator for measuring the economic conditions and development level of a country or region.

[0060] The specific application scenario of this application may be a server. Among them, the server may be a computer, a mobile phone, a tablet and other devices. This application does not impose any special restrictions on the implementation method of the execution subject.

[0061] In the existing technology, the method of simulating the impact of trade uncertainty on the economy by building a macroeconomic model has technical problems such as too many assumptions, a large amount of data, and weak targeting of a certain sector.

[0062] The method for evaluating the economic impact of trade uncertainty provided in this application measures the impact of changes in the export volume of a certain sector on the output and consumption of other sectors through the trade uncertainty impact coefficient and input-output information, and further deduces the impact on GDP through technical means, solving the technical problem of insufficient targeting of a certain sector due to the overly broad model.

[0063] The technical solution of the present application and how the technical solution of the present application solves the above-mentioned technical problems are described in detail below with specific embodiments. The following specific embodiments can be combined with each other, and the same or similar concepts or processes may not be repeated in some embodiments. The embodiments of the present application will be described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0064] Figure 1 The flowchart of the method for evaluating the economic impact of trade uncertainty provided in the embodiment of the present application is shown in FIG. The execution subject of the method can be a server or other servers, and this embodiment is not particularly limited here. Figure 1 As shown, the method may include:

[0065] S101. Obtain the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target department in the target object within a preset time period.

[0066] Among them, the preset time period may refer to a time period divided into months, quarters, years, etc. In an embodiment of the present application, the preset time period may be a calculation period of GDP, for example, from 2023 to 2024.

[0067] The target object may refer to the country or region on which the economic impact assessment is required, such as China, Hebei Province, Beijing, etc.

[0068] The target sector can refer to the categories or fields of various economic activities divided among the target objects, for example, the agricultural product sector, the forest product sector, the catering sector, etc.

[0069] Import volume refers to the total amount of goods and services purchased by a country or region from other countries or regions. These goods and services can be raw materials, intermediate products, final consumer goods, technology, services, etc.

[0070] Export volume can refer to the total amount of goods and services sold by a country or region to other countries or regions. These goods and services can also be raw materials, intermediate products, final consumer goods, technology, services, etc.

[0071] The trade uncertainty index can refer to a quantitative indicator for measuring trade policy uncertainty. It is mainly constructed based on multiple information sources such as news reports, policy documents, tariff changes, etc. related to trade policies. It is used to reflect the instability and unpredictability of the global or specific country / region trade policy environment. The methods for obtaining the trade uncertainty index may include tariff measurement method, stochastic volatility method, uncertainty index method, etc.

[0072] Control variable information may refer to other variable information introduced to improve the accuracy and reliability of the model and eliminate the potential impact of other factors on the dependent variable. In the embodiment of the present application, the control variable information may include intercept, residual term, net outward investment, net inflow of foreign direct investment, commodity exports, commodity imports, the percentage of commodity trade in GDP, population growth, per capita carbon dioxide emissions, total kilometers of railways, air transport freight volume and container terminal throughput, etc.

[0073] S102. Determine an import trade uncertainty impact coefficient representing a quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export amount based on the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target department in the target object within a preset time period.

[0074] Among them, the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient can refer to the corresponding change in export volume when the trade uncertainty index changes by one unit. When the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient is positive, it means that the increase in trade uncertainty will promote the export of the target sector. When the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient is negative, it means that the increase in trade uncertainty will inhibit the export of the target sector.

[0075] The method for determining the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient may include constructing a linear regression model, a nonlinear regression model, a panel data model, etc., inputting the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target department in the target object within a preset time period into the model to obtain the output coefficient.

[0076] Among them, in the embodiment of the present application, according to the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target department in the target object within a preset time period, the method for determining the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient representing the quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export amount may include:

[0077] The export amount of the target sector in the target object within the preset time period is used as the dependent variable, the import amount, the trade uncertainty index, and the control variable information are used as independent variables, and input into the preset multiple linear regression model to obtain the independent variable coefficient set;

[0078] According to the set of independent variable coefficients, the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient is obtained, which represents the quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export volume.

[0079] Among them, the method of obtaining the set of independent variable coefficients may include constructing a multiple linear regression model:

[0080]

[0081] In the embodiment of the present application, it is a known export amount; In the embodiment of the present application, it is a known trade uncertainty index; In the embodiment of the present application, it is control variable information; represents the intercept; Represents the residual term.

[0082] After inputting the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information into the multiple linear regression model, we can get and The value of , that is, the set of independent variable coefficients, where It represents the quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export volume, and is the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient.

[0083] S103. According to the input-output information of the target object within a preset time period, a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are obtained, wherein the row elements and column elements of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are determined according to the department information in the target object, and the elements in the direct consumption coefficient matrix are determined according to the relationship between direct consumption and output between two departments in the input-output information.

[0084] Among them, input-output information can refer to the information obtained from the input-output table. The input-output table can refer to a chessboard-style balance sheet that describes the sources and usage destinations of various products in the national economy. It is a two-dimensional table of product departments and product departments. The rows represent the output of the product and its usage destination, and the columns represent the input structure in the production process.

[0085] The direct consumption coefficient matrix can refer to a matrix that represents the quantitative dependence of the direct links between various industries in the national economy. For example, the matrix shown in Table 1 can represent that for every unit of product produced by the agricultural sector, 0.2 units of manufacturing sector products and 0.1 units of service sector products need to be directly consumed; for every unit of product produced by the manufacturing sector, 0.1 units of agricultural sector products and 0.3 units of service sector products need to be directly consumed; for every unit of product produced by the service sector, 0.05 units of agricultural sector products and 0.05 units of manufacturing sector products need to be directly consumed.

[0086]

[0087] Table 1 Direct consumption coefficient matrix

[0088] The inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix can refer to the matrix that reflects the direct and indirect impact on other sectors when the final use of a certain sector increases by one unit. It is obtained by inverse coefficient processing of the direct consumption coefficient matrix. For example, the matrix shown in Table 2 can represent that when the final use of the agricultural sector increases by one unit, the output of the agricultural sector itself will increase by 1.2 units (including direct and indirect effects), while the output of the manufacturing sector will increase by 0.3 units and the output of the service sector will increase by 0.2 units. When the final use of the manufacturing sector increases by one unit, the output of the agricultural sector, the manufacturing sector and the service sector will increase by 0.4, 1.5 and 0.6 units respectively. When the final use of the service sector increases by one unit, the output of the agricultural sector, the manufacturing sector and the service sector will increase by 0.1, 0.2 and 1.1 units respectively.

[0089]

[0090] Table 2 Inverse matrix of direct consumption coefficient matrix

[0091] Among them, in the embodiments of the present application, the method for obtaining the direct consumption coefficient matrix and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix according to the input-output information of the target object within a preset time period may include:

[0092] According to the input-output information of the target object within a preset time period, obtain the direct consumption information of the target department for other departments and the output information of the target department;

[0093] Perform a division process on the direct consumption information of the target department for other departments and the output information of the target department to obtain the direct consumption coefficient;

[0094] According to the department information in the target object and the direct consumption coefficient, obtain the direct consumption coefficient matrix and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix.

[0095] Among them, the direct consumption information of the target department for other departments may refer to the element information located in the row where the target department is located and the column where other departments are located in the input-output information of the input-output table, which characterizes the direct consumption of other departments in the production of the target department.

[0096] The output information of the target department may refer to the information of the sum of the elements located in the column where the target department is located in the input-output information of the input-output table, which characterizes the total output of the target department.

[0097] The direct consumption coefficient may refer to the quantity of products or services of each department directly consumed per unit of total output in the production and operation process of a certain department.

[0098] Among them, in the embodiments of the present application, the method for obtaining the direct consumption coefficient matrix and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix according to the department information in the target object and the direct consumption coefficient may include:

[0099] According to the department information in the target object and the direct consumption coefficient, obtain the direct consumption coefficient matrix;

[0100] Perform Leontief inverse coefficient processing on the direct consumption coefficient to obtain the complete demand consumption coefficient;

[0101] According to the department information in the target object and the complete demand consumption coefficient, obtain the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix.

[0102] Among them, the complete demand consumption coefficient is the quantity of products or services of each department directly and indirectly consumed when a certain department provides one unit of final product, which not only includes direct consumption but also covers all levels of indirect consumption, thus comprehensively reflecting the direct and indirect connections between departments.

[0103] When the direct consumption coefficient matrix is A, the expression of the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix is as follows:

[0104]

[0105] Where I is the identity matrix.

[0106] S104. Determine the influence coefficient, sensitivity coefficient, and global impact information of the target sector's direct consumption on other sectors based on the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient, the direct consumption coefficient matrix, and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix.

[0107] Among them, the influence coefficient can refer to the degree of impact on the production demand of various sectors of the national economy when a certain sector of the national economy increases one unit of final use, which measures the size of the pulling effect of one sector on other sectors.

[0108] The sensitivity coefficient refers to the degree of demand sensitivity of a certain department when each unit of final use is increased in various sectors of the national economy, that is, the output that the department needs to provide for the production of other sectors, reflecting the degree of demand sensitivity of a certain department to economic development.

[0109] Global impact information can refer to the information that when trade uncertainty changes by one unit, the change in the export volume of the target sector leads to changes in the value of direct consumption in other sectors.

[0110] Among them, in the embodiment of the present application, according to the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient, the direct consumption coefficient matrix, and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix, the method for determining the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the target department's direct consumption on other departments may include:

[0111] According to the inverse matrix and the target division, the target row element information of the inverse matrix and the target column element information of the inverse matrix are obtained;

[0112] The inverse matrix target row element information and the inverse matrix target column element information are summed up respectively to obtain the inverse matrix target row element summation information and the inverse matrix target column element summation information;

[0113] The complete demand consumption coefficients are summed to obtain the inverse matrix coefficient sum information;

[0114] Divide the sum of the inverse matrix coefficients and the number of elements in the inverse matrix to obtain average consumption information;

[0115] According to the summation information of the inverse matrix target row elements, the summation information of the inverse matrix target column elements and the average consumption information, the influence coefficient and the sensitivity coefficient are obtained;

[0116] According to the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient and direct consumption coefficient matrix, the global impact information of the target sector on the direct consumption of other sectors is obtained.

[0117] Among them, when the inverse matrix is ​​as follows:

[0118]

[0119] ..., , ..., represents the production supply of departments 1, ..., department i, ..., department n driven by the final product demand of target department j, is the target row element information of the inverse matrix, and their sum is , that is, the sum of the target row elements of the inverse matrix; ..., , ..., represents the demand induction degree of the target department j when each additional unit of final use of department 1, ..., department i, ..., department n is obtained, which is the element information of the target column of the inverse matrix. Their sum is , that is, the sum information of the target column elements of the inverse matrix.

[0120] Average consumption information can refer to the average value of the total impact of all departments, expressed as , where n is the number of elements in the inverse matrix, Sum information for the inverse matrix coefficients.

[0121] The expression of the influence coefficient is:

[0122]

[0123] The expression of sensitivity coefficient is:

[0124]

[0125] Among them, in the embodiment of the present application, according to the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient and the direct consumption coefficient matrix, the method for obtaining the global impact information of the target department on the direct consumption of other departments may include:

[0126] According to the direct consumption coefficient matrix and the target department, the target row element information is obtained;

[0127] Performing sum processing on the target row element information to obtain the target row element sum information;

[0128] The import trade uncertainty impact coefficient and the target row element summation information are multiplied to obtain the global impact information of the target sector on the direct consumption of other sectors.

[0129] The target row element information may refer to information of all elements in the row where the target department is located in the direct consumption coefficient matrix.

[0130] The expression of global impact information is:

[0131]

[0132] in, is the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient, Sum information for target row elements.

[0133] S105. Determine GDP impact information based on the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the target department's direct consumption on other departments.

[0134] Among them, GDP impact information may refer to information on the impact of changes in the trade uncertainty index on the GDP of the target object within a preset time period.

[0135] In the embodiment of the present application, according to the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the target department's direct consumption on other departments, the method for determining the GDP impact information may include:

[0136] The influence coefficient and the sensitivity coefficient are multiplied to obtain the comprehensive influence induction coefficient;

[0137] The GDP impact information is obtained by multiplying the comprehensive impact induction coefficient and the global impact information of the target sector's direct consumption on other sectors.

[0138] Among them, the comprehensive impact induction coefficient can characterize the comprehensive influence of the target sector in the national economy.

[0139] The expression of GDP impact information is:

[0140]

[0141] S106. Obtain an evaluation result of the economic impact of trade uncertainty on the target object based on the GDP information and GDP impact information of the target object within a preset time period.

[0142] Among them, the assessment result of the impact of trade uncertainty on the economy can refer to the proportion of the GDP impact information of the target object in the total GDP information of the target object when the trade uncertainty index changes. The higher the proportion, the greater the impact of the trade uncertainty of the target object on the economy, and the assessment result is a large impact. The lower the proportion, the smaller the impact of the trade uncertainty of the target object on the economy, and the assessment result is a small impact.

[0143] The method for evaluating the economic impact of trade uncertainty provided in the embodiment of the present application can measure the impact of changes in the export volume of a certain department on the output and consumption of other departments through the trade uncertainty impact coefficient and input-output information, and further deduce the means of impact on GDP. According to the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient and input-output information, the global impact information of the direct consumption of other departments after the change of the export volume of the target department is obtained, and then the sensitivity coefficient and the influence coefficient are obtained according to the input-output information. The global impact information is processed by comprehensively using the sensitivity coefficient and the influence coefficient to obtain the impact of the change of the export volume of the target department on GDP, as well as the ratio of the impact of GDP to total GDP, so as to achieve the effect of evaluating the economic impact of trade uncertainty.

[0144] Figure 2 A flow chart of another method for evaluating the economic impact of trade uncertainty provided in an embodiment of the present application is shown in FIG. Figure 2 As shown, the method includes:

[0145] S201. Obtain the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the steel sector of country A within a preset time period, wherein the control variable information includes net outward investment information, net foreign direct investment inflow information, commodity export information, commodity import information, commodity trade as a percentage of GDP information, population growth information, per capita carbon dioxide emissions information, total railway kilometers information, air transport freight volume information, ore and metal export information, and container terminal throughput information.

[0146] Among them, the preset time period may refer to a time period divided into months, quarters, years, etc. In an embodiment of the present application, the preset time period may be a calculation period of GDP, for example, from 2023 to 2024.

[0147] S202. Input the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the steel sector of country A within a preset time period into a preset multivariate linear regression model to determine the steel import trade uncertainty impact coefficient that represents the quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export amount.

[0148] Among them, the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient can refer to the corresponding change in export volume when the trade uncertainty index changes by one unit. When the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient is positive, it means that the increase in trade uncertainty will promote the export of the target sector. When the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient is negative, it means that the increase in trade uncertainty will inhibit the export of the target sector.

[0149] S203. According to the input-output information of each department of country A within a preset time period, a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are obtained.

[0150] Among them, the direct consumption coefficient matrix can refer to the matrix that represents the quantitative dependence of the direct links between various industries in the national economy, and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix can refer to the matrix that reflects the direct and indirect impact on other departments when the input of a certain department increases by one unit of final use.

[0151] S204. Determine the influence coefficient, sensitivity coefficient, and global impact information of the steel sector's direct consumption on other sectors based on the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient, the direct consumption coefficient matrix, and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix.

[0152] Among them, the global impact information can refer to the information that when trade uncertainty changes by one unit, the change in the export volume of the steel sector drives the change in the value of direct consumption in other sectors and

[0153] S205. Determine the impact information of steel on GDP based on the influence coefficient, sensitivity coefficient, and global impact information of the steel sector's direct consumption on other target sectors.

[0154] Among them, the information on the impact of steel on GDP can refer to the information on the impact of the steel sector on the GDP of country A within a preset time period when the trade uncertainty index changes.

[0155] S206. Based on the GDP information of country A and the information on the impact of steel on GDP within a preset time period, an evaluation result of the economic impact of trade uncertainty on country A is obtained.

[0156] Among them, the assessment result of the economic impact of trade uncertainty in country A can refer to the proportion of the impact of the steel sector on the GDP of country A in the total GDP information of country A within a preset time period when the trade uncertainty index changes.

[0157] Another method for evaluating the economic impact of trade uncertainty provided in an embodiment of the present application can measure the impact of changes in the export volume of the steel sector in country A on the output and consumption of other sectors through the trade uncertainty impact coefficient and input-output information, and further deduce the impact on GDP to obtain the ratio of the GDP impact to total GDP, thereby achieving the effect of evaluating the economic impact of trade uncertainty on the steel sector.

[0158] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of the device for evaluating the economic impact of trade uncertainty provided in an embodiment of the present application. Figure 3 As shown, the device 30 for evaluating the impact of trade uncertainty on the economy includes: an acquisition module 301, a first determination module 302, a first obtaining module 303, a second determination module 304, a third determination module 305, and a second obtaining module 306. Among them:

[0159] An acquisition module 301, configured to acquire the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of a target department in a target object within a preset time period;

[0160] A first determination module 302, configured to determine an import trade uncertainty impact coefficient characterizing the quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export amount according to the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of a target department in a target object within a preset time period;

[0161] A first obtaining module 303, configured to obtain a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix according to the input-output information of a target object within a preset time period, where the row elements and column elements of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are determined according to the department information in the target object, and the elements in the direct consumption coefficient matrix are determined according to the relationship between direct consumption and output between two departments in the input-output information;

[0162] A second determination module 304, configured to determine an influence coefficient, a sensitivity coefficient, and global influence information on the direct consumption of a target department by other departments according to the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient, the direct consumption coefficient matrix, and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix;

[0163] A third determination module 305, configured to determine GDP influence information according to the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global influence information on the direct consumption of a target department by other departments;

[0164] A second obtaining module 306, configured to obtain an evaluation result of the impact of trade uncertainty on the economy of a target object according to the GDP information and the GDP influence information of the target object within a preset time period.

[0165] In an embodiment of the present application, the first determination module 302 may further be configured to:

[0166] Take the export amount of a target department in a target object within a preset time period as a dependent variable, and the import amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information as independent variables, and input them into a preset multiple linear regression model to obtain a set of independent variable coefficients;

[0167] According to the set of independent variable coefficients, obtain an import trade uncertainty impact coefficient characterizing the quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export amount.

[0168] In an embodiment of the present application, the first obtaining module 303 may further be configured to:

[0169] According to the input-output information of a target object within a preset time period, obtain the direct consumption information of a target department by other departments and the output information of the target department;

[0170] Divide the target department's direct consumption information on other departments and the target department's output information to obtain the direct consumption coefficient;

[0171] According to the department information and direct consumption coefficients in the target object, a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are obtained.

[0172] In the embodiment of the present application, the first obtaining module 303 may also be used for:

[0173] According to the department information and direct consumption coefficients in the target object, the direct consumption coefficient matrix is ​​obtained;

[0174] The direct consumption coefficient is processed by Leontief inverse coefficient to obtain the complete demand consumption coefficient;

[0175] According to the department information and complete demand consumption coefficient in the target object, the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix is ​​obtained.

[0176] In the embodiment of the present application, the second determining module 304 may also be used to:

[0177] According to the inverse matrix and the target division, the target row element information of the inverse matrix and the target column element information of the inverse matrix are obtained;

[0178] The inverse matrix target row element information and the inverse matrix target column element information are summed up respectively to obtain the inverse matrix target row element summation information and the inverse matrix target column element summation information;

[0179] The complete demand consumption coefficients are summed to obtain the inverse matrix coefficient sum information;

[0180] Divide the sum of the inverse matrix coefficients and the number of elements in the inverse matrix to obtain average consumption information;

[0181] According to the summation information of the inverse matrix target row elements, the summation information of the inverse matrix target column elements and the average consumption information, the influence coefficient and the sensitivity coefficient are obtained;

[0182] According to the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient and direct consumption coefficient matrix, the global impact information of the target sector on the direct consumption of other sectors is obtained.

[0183] In the embodiment of the present application, the second determining module 304 may also be used to:

[0184] According to the direct consumption coefficient matrix and the target department, the target row element information is obtained;

[0185] Performing sum processing on the target row element information to obtain the target row element sum information;

[0186] The import trade uncertainty impact coefficient and the target row element summation information are multiplied to obtain the global impact information of the target sector on the direct consumption of other sectors.

[0187] In the embodiment of the present application, the third determination module 305 may also be used to:

[0188] The influence coefficient and the sensitivity coefficient are multiplied to obtain the comprehensive influence induction coefficient;

[0189] The GDP impact information is obtained by multiplying the comprehensive impact induction coefficient and the global impact information of the target sector's direct consumption on other sectors.

[0190] As can be seen from the above, the evaluation device for the impact of trade uncertainty on the economy in the embodiment of the present application comprises an acquisition module 301, which is used to obtain the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target department in the target object within a preset time period; a first determination module 302, which is used to determine the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient that characterizes the quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export amount based on the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target department in the target object within the preset time period; a first acquisition module 303, which is used to obtain a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix based on the input-output information of the target object within the preset time period, wherein the row elements and column elements of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are based on the target object The elements in the direct consumption coefficient matrix are determined according to the relationship between direct consumption and output between the two departments in the input-output information; the second determination module 304 is used to determine the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the direct consumption of the target department on other departments according to the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient, the direct consumption coefficient matrix, and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix; the third determination module 305 is used to determine the GDP impact information according to the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the direct consumption of the target department on other departments; the second obtaining module 306 is used to obtain the economic impact assessment result of the trade uncertainty of the target object according to the GDP information and GDP impact information of the target object in a preset time period. Therefore, the embodiment of the present application can measure the impact of changes in the export volume of a certain department on the output and consumption of other departments through the trade uncertainty impact coefficient and input-output information, and further deduce the means of impact on GDP. According to the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient and input-output information, the global impact information of the direct consumption of other departments after the change of the export volume of the target department is obtained, and then the sensitivity coefficient and the influence coefficient are obtained according to the input-output information. The global impact information is processed by comprehensively using the sensitivity coefficient and the influence coefficient to obtain the impact of the change of the export volume of the target department on GDP, as well as the ratio of the impact of GDP to total GDP, so as to achieve the effect of evaluating the impact of trade uncertainty on the economy.

[0191] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of the device provided in this application. Figure 4 As shown, the device 40 provided in this embodiment includes: at least one processor 401 and a memory 402. Optionally, the device 40 also includes a communication component 403. The processor 401, the memory 402 and the communication component 403 are connected via a bus 404.

[0192] In a specific implementation process, at least one processor 401 executes the computer-executable instructions stored in the memory 402, so that at least one processor 401 executes the above method.

[0193] For the specific implementation process of the processor 401, reference may be made to the above method embodiments, and their implementation principles and technical effects are similar, so they will not be elaborated here in this embodiment.

[0194] In the above embodiments, it should be understood that the processor may be a central processing unit (Central Processing Unit, CPU for short), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (Digital Signal Processor, DSP for short), application specific integrated circuits (Application Specific Integrated Circuit, ASIC for short), etc. The general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or any conventional processor, etc. The steps of the method disclosed in combination with the invention can be directly implemented by a hardware processor, or implemented by a combination of hardware and software modules in the processor.

[0195] The memory may include a high-speed memory (Random Access Memory, RAM), and may also include a non-volatile memory (Non-volatile Memory, NVM), such as at least one disk memory.

[0196] The bus may be an Industry Standard Architecture (ISA) bus, a Peripheral Component Interconnect (PCI) bus, an Extended Industry Standard Architecture (EISA) bus, etc. The bus can be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, etc. For the convenience of representation, the bus in the drawings of this application is not limited to only one bus or one type of bus.

[0197] This application also provides a computer program product, including a computer program, which implements the above method when executed by a processor.

[0198] This application also provides a computer-readable storage medium, in which computer-executable instructions are stored, and when the processor executes the computer-executable instructions, the above method is implemented.

[0199] The above-mentioned readable storage medium can be implemented by any type of volatile or non-volatile storage device or a combination thereof, such as static random access memory (SRAM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM), programmable read-only memory (PROM), read-only memory (ROM), magnetic memory, flash memory, magnetic disk or optical disk. The readable storage medium can be any available medium that can be accessed by a general or special-purpose computer.

[0200] An exemplary readable storage medium is coupled to a processor so that the processor can read information from the readable storage medium and write information to the readable storage medium. Of course, the readable storage medium can also be a component of the processor. The processor and the readable storage medium can be located in an application specific integrated circuit (Application Specific Integrated Circuits, referred to as: ASIC). Of course, the processor and the readable storage medium can also exist in the device as discrete components.

[0201] The division of units is only a logical function division, and there may be other divisions in actual implementation, such as multiple units or components can be combined or integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored or not executed. Another point is that the mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed can be an indirect coupling or communication connection through some interface, device or unit, which can be electrical, mechanical or other forms.

[0202] The units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components shown as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place or distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the units may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.

[0203] In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present invention may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may exist physically separately, or two or more units may be integrated into one unit.

[0204] If the function is implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as an independent product, it can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, or the part that contributes to the prior art, or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. The computer software product is stored in a storage medium, including several instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the methods of each embodiment of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: U disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), disk or optical disk, etc. Various media that can store program codes.

[0205] Those skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the steps of implementing the above-mentioned method embodiments can be completed by hardware related to program instructions. The aforementioned program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. When the program is executed, the steps of the above-mentioned method embodiments are executed; and the aforementioned storage medium includes: ROM, RAM, disk or optical disk and other media that can store program codes.

[0206] Finally, it should be noted that those skilled in the art will readily conceive of other embodiments of the present invention after considering the specification and practicing the invention disclosed herein. The present invention is intended to cover any variations, uses or adaptations of the present invention, which follow the general principles of the present invention and include common knowledge or customary technical means in the art not disclosed by the present invention, are not limited to the precise structure described above and shown in the drawings, and may be modified and changed in various ways without departing from the scope thereof. The scope of the present invention is limited only by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the economic impact of trade uncertainty, characterized in that: include: Obtain the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target sector in the target object within a preset time period; Determine an import trade uncertainty impact coefficient representing a quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export amount according to the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target sector in the target object within the preset time period; According to the input-output information of the target object within a preset time period, a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are obtained, wherein the row elements and column elements of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are determined according to the department information in the target object, and the elements in the direct consumption coefficient matrix are determined according to the relationship between direct consumption and output between two departments in the input-output information; Determine the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the target sector's direct consumption on other sectors based on the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient, the direct consumption coefficient matrix, and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix; Determine GDP impact information according to the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the target sector on the direct consumption of the other sectors; According to the GDP information and the GDP impact information of the target object within a preset time period, an evaluation result of the economic impact of trade uncertainty on the target object is obtained.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Determining the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient representing the quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export amount according to the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target department in the target object within the preset time period includes: The export amount of the target sector in the target object within the preset time period is used as the dependent variable, the import amount, the trade uncertainty index, and the control variable information are used as independent variables, and input into a preset multivariate linear regression model to obtain a set of independent variable coefficients; According to the set of independent variable coefficients, the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient that characterizes the quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export amount is obtained.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The step of obtaining a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix according to the input-output information of the target object within a preset time period includes: According to the input-output information of the target object within a preset time period, the direct consumption information of the target department on the other departments and the output information of the target department are obtained; Dividing the target department's direct consumption information on other departments and the target department's output information to obtain a direct consumption coefficient; According to the department information in the target object and the direct consumption coefficient, a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are obtained.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The step of obtaining a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix according to the department information in the target object and the direct consumption coefficient comprises: Obtaining a direct consumption coefficient matrix according to the department information in the target object and the direct consumption coefficient; Performing Leontief inverse coefficient processing on the direct consumption coefficient to obtain a complete demand consumption coefficient; According to the department information in the target object and the complete demand consumption coefficient, the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix is ​​obtained.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Determining the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the target sector's direct consumption on other sectors based on the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient, the direct consumption coefficient matrix, and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix includes: According to the inverse matrix and the target department, obtaining the inverse matrix target row element information and the inverse matrix target column element information; Respectively summing the inverse matrix target row element information and the inverse matrix target column element information to obtain inverse matrix target row element summation information and inverse matrix target column element summation information; The complete demand consumption coefficients are summed to obtain the inverse matrix coefficient sum information; Dividing the sum of the inverse matrix coefficients and the number of elements in the inverse matrix to obtain average consumption information; Obtaining the influence coefficient and the sensitivity coefficient according to the inverse matrix target row element summation information, the inverse matrix target column element summation information and the average consumption information; According to the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient and the direct consumption coefficient matrix, the global impact information of the target sector on the direct consumption of other sectors is obtained.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The obtaining of the global impact information of the target sector on the direct consumption of the other sectors according to the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient and the direct consumption coefficient matrix includes: Obtaining target row element information according to the direct consumption coefficient matrix and the target department; Performing a summation process on the target row element information to obtain target row element summation information; The import trade uncertainty impact coefficient and the target row element summation information are multiplied to obtain the global impact information of the target department on the direct consumption of other departments.

7. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The determining of GDP impact information according to the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the target sector on the direct consumption of the other sectors includes: Performing a product processing on the influence coefficient and the sensitivity coefficient to obtain a comprehensive influence induction coefficient; The GDP impact information is obtained by performing a product processing on the comprehensive impact induction coefficient and the global impact information of the target department on the direct consumption of other departments.

8. A device for evaluating the impact of trade uncertainty on the economy, characterized in that: include: An acquisition module is used to acquire the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target sector in the target object within a preset time period; A first determination module is used to determine an import trade uncertainty impact coefficient representing a quantitative relationship between the trade uncertainty index and the export amount according to the import amount, export amount, trade uncertainty index, and control variable information of the target department in the target object within the preset time period; A first obtaining module is used to obtain a direct consumption coefficient matrix and an inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix according to the input-output information of the target object within a preset time period, wherein the row elements and column elements of the direct consumption coefficient matrix are determined according to the department information in the target object, and the elements in the direct consumption coefficient matrix are determined according to the relationship between direct consumption and output between two departments in the input-output information; A second determination module is used to determine the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the target department's direct consumption on other departments based on the import trade uncertainty impact coefficient, the direct consumption coefficient matrix, and the inverse matrix of the direct consumption coefficient matrix; A third determination module is used to determine GDP impact information according to the influence coefficient, the sensitivity coefficient, and the global impact information of the target department's direct consumption on the other departments; The second obtaining module is used to obtain the evaluation result of the economic impact of trade uncertainty on the target object according to the GDP information and the GDP impact information of the target object within a preset time period.

9. A device, characterized in that: include: A processor, and a memory communicatively connected to the processor; The memory stores computer-executable instructions; The processor executes the computer-executable instructions stored in the memory to implement the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores computer-executable instructions, which, when executed by a processor, are used to implement the method for evaluating the economic impact of trade uncertainty as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

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