Full-life-cycle net emission path optimization method based on natural carbon cycle

Abstract

The invention discloses a natural carbon cycle-based full-life-cycle net emission path optimization method. The method comprises the following steps of providing a new S-type Logistic curve research hypothesis for carbon emission accumulation; constructing theoretical models of carbon emission, emission peak values and neutralization; the interaction of economic development and carbon emission coupling effect is realized; and establishing a carbon emission path optimization strategy. According to the method, a more accurate and efficient carbon emission monitoring and metering technology is developed, meanwhile, a highly scientific and systematic path planning and optimization strategy is provided, remarkable waste of resources is avoided, the implementation efficiency of emission reduction work is improved, and accurate regulation and control of carbon emission and efficient configuration of resource utilization are achieved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of economic planning, and particularly to a method for optimizing the net emission path of the whole life cycle based on the natural carbon cycle. Background Art

[0002] Current research mainly focuses on exploring the mutual relationship between economic development and carbon emissions, the theoretical logic of the peak of carbon emissions and its implementation path. These studies provide an important basis for understanding the driving factors of carbon emissions and formulating emission reduction policies. Regarding the deep laws between economic development and cumulative carbon emissions.

[0003] In the technical dimension, the current technical architecture has significant limitations in dealing with carbon emission management problems. Specifically, although the current carbon emission monitoring and measurement technologies can provide a certain degree of carbon emission data support, there are obvious defects in the accuracy, timeliness and coverage of the data, making it difficult to accurately depict the intricate dynamic relationship between economic development and carbon emissions. On the other hand, due to the lack of efficient and systematic path planning and optimization strategies, the implementation of actual emission reduction work is often accompanied by significant waste of resources and low efficiency. Therefore, there is an urgent need to propose a method for optimizing the net emission path of the whole life cycle based on the natural carbon cycle. Summary of the Invention

[0004] Object of the Invention: The object of the present invention is to provide a method for optimizing the net emission path of the whole life cycle based on the natural carbon cycle.

[0005] Technical Solution: The present invention includes the following steps:

[0006] S1: Propose a new S-shaped Logistic curve research hypothesis for cumulative carbon emissions;

[0007] S2: Construct a theoretical model of carbon emissions, emission peak and neutralization;

[0008] S3: Interaction of the coupling effect between economic development and carbon emissions;

[0009] S4: Establish an optimization strategy for the carbon emission path.

[0010] Further, the step S1 includes assuming that the cumulative net carbon emissions show an S-shaped characteristic during the entire stage of economic development, similar to the Logistic curve law of biological growth.

[0011] Further, the step S2 includes the following steps:

[0012] S21: Abstract the ideality of net carbon emissions into a continuously differentiable function;

[0013] S22: Calculate the condition for satisfying the maximum value when the carbon emissions reach the peak;

[0014] S23: Calculate the peak value of net carbon emissions;

[0015] S24: Calculate the cumulative carbon emissions;

[0016] S25: Calculate CO 2 Net zero emissions;

[0017] S26: Calculate the cumulative net carbon emissions when carbon emissions reach neutralization.

[0018] Furthermore, the continuously differentiable function in step S21 is expressed as:

[0019] NCE = f(e) = p(e) + h(e)

[0020] where NCE is the net carbon emissions, f(e) is the expression of net carbon emissions, p(e) is the expression of carbon emissions, h(e) is the expression of carbon sinks, and e is the level of economic development, represented by the gross domestic product GDP.

[0021] Furthermore, the condition for the peak value of carbon emissions in step S22 to satisfy the maximum value is:

[0022] e = e d Then there is

[0023] The peak value of carbon emissions M P is expressed as: M p = p(e d )

[0024] where e d represents the level of carbon economic development when carbon emissions reach the peak value.

[0025] Furthermore, the peak value of net carbon emissions in step S23 is expressed as:

[0026] M f = f(e d )

[0027] Set the carbon sink h(e) to the ideal constant A, then it satisfies:

[0028]

[0029] That is, at the moment when carbon emissions reach the peak value, the net carbon emissions can also be ideally considered to have a maximum value, and the peak value of net carbon emissions is M f .

[0030] Furthermore, the cumulative carbon emissions function in step S24 is expressed as:

[0031]

[0032] CNCE = g(e) = ∫f(e)de

[0033] Among them, CNCE is the cumulative net carbon emissions, and the growth rate of the cumulative net carbon emissions is the first derivative of this function, measured by the net carbon emissions level.

[0034] Furthermore, in step S25, CO 2 The net zero emissions are expressed as:

[0035]

[0036] Simultaneously satisfying: Among them, e 2 represents the economic development level when carbon emissions reach neutralization.

[0037] Furthermore, in step S3, the carbon emission coupling effect includes the interaction and continuous upgrading and driving of five effects: natural effect, scale effect, structural effect, neutralization effect, and technological effect.

[0038] Beneficial effects: The present invention has developed a more accurate and efficient carbon emission monitoring and measurement technology, and at the same time proposed a path planning and optimization strategy with high scientificity and systematicness, avoiding significant waste of resources, improving the implementation efficiency of emission reduction work, and achieving precise control of carbon emissions and efficient allocation of resource utilization. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0039] Figure 1 is the logical framework diagram of the present invention

[0040] Figure 2 is the schematic diagram of the influence mechanism diagram of economic development and carbon emissions. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0041] The technical solutions of the present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0042] As Figure 1 shown, the method for optimizing the net emission path of the whole life cycle based on the natural carbon cycle according to the present invention includes the following steps:

[0043] Step 1: Propose a new S-shaped (Logistic) curve research hypothesis for economic development and cumulative carbon emissions;

[0044] Step 1.1: Analyzing and judging from the long history of the world, during the economic development stage from the start of industrialization to the achievement of carbon neutrality, the net carbon emissions are positive and the cumulative net carbon emissions are continuously increasing. Since the peak of carbon emissions is the inflection point where the net carbon emissions change from increasing to decreasing, the cumulative net carbon emissions increase rapidly. After the peak of carbon emissions, the cumulative net carbon emissions increase at a decreasing rate. Therefore, it is assumed that the cumulative net carbon emissions show an S-shaped characteristic throughout this economic development stage, which is very similar to the Logistic curve law of biological growth.

[0045] Step 2: Construct a theoretical model of economic development, the peak of carbon emissions, and the achievement of carbon neutrality;

[0046] As Figure 2 shown, in order to comprehensively and clearly define the key nodes of economic development, the peak of carbon emissions, and carbon neutrality. The theoretical model constructed by the present invention includes four basic elements: net carbon emissions (NCE), cumulative net carbon emissions (CNCE), the upper limit of cumulative net carbon emissions (K), and the economic development stage (E). The cumulative net carbon emissions are the integral of the net carbon emissions, thus integrating the inverted U-shaped relationship between economic development and carbon emissions and the S-shaped curve characteristic of economic development and cumulative net carbon emissions.

[0047] Step 2.1: Idealize the net carbon emissions as a continuously differentiable function of the economic development level, then there is:

[0048] NCE = f(e) = p(e) + h(e)

[0049] where NCE is the net carbon emissions; f(e) is the expression of the net carbon emissions; p(e) is the expression of carbon emissions; h(e) is the expression of carbon sinks (expressed as negative); e is the economic development level (which can be represented by the regional gross domestic product GDP); under ideal conditions (① the independent variable of the function, the economic development level, continuously increases over time. ② The greater the cumulative net carbon emissions, the more severe the climate environment. ③ At the beginning of industrial development, assume the economic development level is e 0 , e < e 0 when, f(e) = 0).

[0050] Step 2.2: The net carbon emissions have a maximum value at the vertex of the inverted U-shaped curve. Considering that the change in carbon sinks is not significant compared to the change in carbon emissions before and after the peak of carbon emissions, and the change in net carbon emissions is mainly determined by the change in carbon emissions, the moment of the maximum net carbon emissions is approximately the moment of the peak of carbon emissions. When the peak of carbon emissions is reached, the carbon emissions reach the peak, and the core is that the growth rate of carbon emissions continues to decrease, reaching zero and then negative growth. If the volatility of the increase and decrease of carbon emissions in the actual situation is ignored, the carbon emission function is idealized as an increasing function before the peak and a decreasing function after the peak, then the economic development level e d at the moment of the peak of carbon emissions satisfies the maximum value condition, that is:

[0051] e = e d , then there is

[0052] Carbon emission peak M P :

[0053] M p = p(e d )

[0054] After reaching the carbon peak, carbon emissions achieve negative growth.

[0055] It can be deduced that

[0056] Step 2.3: The carbon peak has milestone significance. It not only represents the historical turning point of the change from increasing to decreasing carbon emissions, but also marks the decoupling of economic development from carbon emissions, and the fundamental conflict between economic development and climate governance gradually turns to coordination. Before and after reaching the carbon peak, the change of carbon emissions relative to carbon sinks is significant, and the change of net carbon emissions is dominated by the change of carbon emissions. At this stage, the carbon sink h(e) can be idealized as a constant A. That is:

[0057]

[0058] That is, at the moment of reaching the carbon peak, the net carbon emissions can also be idealized as having a maximum value (the following analysis is also based on this assumption condition). Net carbon emission peak:

[0059] M f = f(e d )

[0060] Step 2.4: The cumulative net carbon emissions are the sum of the net carbon emissions within a given time. The cumulative net carbon emissions are the integral of the net carbon emissions. The cumulative carbon emission function can be expressed as:

[0061] CNCE = g(e) = ∫f(e)de

[0062] In the formula: CNCE is the cumulative net carbon emissions; the growth rate of the cumulative net carbon emissions is the first derivative of this function, which can be measured by the level of net carbon emissions:

[0063]

[0064] Step 2.5: When the net carbon emissions reach the maximum value at the carbon peak, the growth rate of the cumulative net carbon emissions is the largest at this time, the greenhouse gases increase sharply, and the climate environment deteriorates rapidly. As long as the net carbon emissions are positive, the cumulative net carbon emissions will increase: Therefore, to completely control the climate problem and reverse the trend of climate deterioration, carbon neutrality needs to be achieved. At carbon neutrality, CO 2 "Net zero emissions", assuming that the economic development level at this time is e 2 . That is

[0065]

[0066] At the same time, it satisfies:

[0067]

[0068] Step 2.6: If carbon neutrality is maintained after neutralization or the negative carbon emission stage is entered, at the moment of achieving neutrality, the cumulative net carbon emission reaches the historical maximum value M g

[0069]

[0070] The achievement of carbon neutrality means that the cumulative net carbon emission achieves zero growth, reversing the continuous deterioration trend of the climate environment and avoiding the continuous rise of the global temperature. That is, the original intention of the carbon neutrality goal: to stop the growth before the cumulative net carbon emission increases to the atmospheric greenhouse gas accommodation threshold K, that is, the maximum value of the cumulative net carbon emission Mg < K, so as to achieve the global warming control goal of 1.5°C or 2.0°C, thus avoiding climate change.

[0071] Step 3: The coupling effect of the dual-carbon strategy implementation on economic development and carbon emission

[0072] The mechanism of action and the essential motivation for the S-shaped curve of economic development and carbon emission to tend to be flat and show the characteristics of slowing down and shortening are mainly driven by the interactive coupling and continuous upgrading of five effects: natural effect, scale effect, structural effect, neutralization effect, and technological effect.

[0073] Step 3.1: The natural effect refers to the changes in carbon emissions affected by the natural carbon cycle. In the pre-industrial stage, the level of human economy was extremely low, the carbon cycle was hardly intervened by humans, the total amount of cumulative net carbon emissions in the atmosphere was low and the changes were tiny, being in a state of "natural carbon neutrality".

[0074] Step 3.2: The scale effect refers to the growth of carbon emissions brought about by the growth of the economic scale. In the case where resource-intensive and labor-intensive industries dominate and the resource and environmental load is small, the development model characterized by driving economic scale growth by expanding fossil energy consumption makes the economic scale and the total carbon emission show a growth connection state. The scale effect dominates in the middle and early stages of industrialization. After a certain stage, the development method of promoting economic scale growth at the expense of the quality of the ecological environment becomes unsustainable, forcing the scale effect to decrease, which is an important way for economic development and carbon emission decoupling.

[0075] Step 3.3: Structural effect. This effect generally appears in the transitional stage from the mid-late industrialization period to the post-industrialization period and coexists with the scale effect. Due to the resource and environmental constraints forcing the transformation of economic growth, it drives the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure and energy structure. Knowledge and technology replace traditional labor and resources as the elements of industrial upgrading, and the energy structure becomes cleaner and lower-carbon, resulting in a rapid decline in carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Before and after reaching the peak carbon emissions, the structural effect will gradually replace the scale effect and dominate, thus rapidly reducing carbon emissions per unit of energy consumption. It is an absolute force for achieving deep decarbonization in a socio-economic pattern with high fossil energy consumption and an important step from peak carbon emissions to carbon neutrality.

[0076] Step 3.4: Neutralization effect, also known as carbon sink effect, refers to the role of artificial carbon sinks represented by CCUS technology and natural carbon sinks represented by afforestation along with social progress. Even if a green, low-carbon, circular economic system and a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system are fully established, there will inevitably be industries that cannot be decarbonized. At this stage, using negative carbon emission technologies to enhance artificial carbon sinks and vigorously developing natural carbon sinks are the dominant forces for deep carbon reduction and even achieving negative carbon emissions, and their role in substituting carbon emission factors is irreplaceable.

[0077] Step 3.5: Technical effect. The technical effect runs through the entire life cycle of economic development and plays an important role especially in the stages of structural effect and neutralization effect, that is, by reducing the input of factors per unit of output, reducing carbon emissions per unit of output, reducing carbon emissions per unit of energy consumption, and developing end-treatment technologies, etc., to reduce net carbon emissions.

[0078] Step 4: Establish an optimized carbon emission path strategy. Based on the above steps, construct an optimized carbon emission path strategy.

[0079] Example:

[0080] For a wind power project in the energy industry, there are certain carbon emissions throughout the entire production cycle from the production, transportation, installation, operation to the final demolition and recycling of wind turbines. However, its zero-emission characteristics during the operation stage make the carbon emissions throughout the life cycle much lower than those of traditional fossil fuel power generation.

[0081] For sustainable agricultural practices in the agricultural industry, the carbon emissions of farmland adopting sustainable agricultural practices (precision fertilization, straw returning to the field, organic agriculture, etc.) during the planting, harvesting, processing and other stages are significantly lower than those of farmland with traditional agricultural practices, and it is beneficial to improve the soil carbon sink capacity.

Claims

1. A method for optimizing the net emission path of the entire life cycle based on the natural carbon cycle, characterized in that: The steps include: S1: Propose a new S-shaped logistic curve research hypothesis for cumulative carbon emissions; S2: Construct theoretical models of carbon emissions, emission peaks and neutralization; S3: Interaction between economic development and carbon emission coupling effects; S4: Establish a carbon emission path optimization strategy.

2. The method for optimizing the net emission path of the entire life cycle based on the natural carbon cycle according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The step S1 includes assuming that the cumulative net carbon emissions show an S-shaped characteristic throughout the entire stage of economic development, which is similar to the logistic curve law of biological growth.

3. The method for optimizing the net emission path of the entire life cycle based on the natural carbon cycle according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The step S2 comprises the following steps: S21: Abstract the ideality of net carbon emissions into a continuous differentiable function; S22: Calculate the carbon emissions to meet the maximum value condition when reaching the peak value; S23: Calculate the peak value of net carbon emissions; S24: Calculate cumulative carbon emissions; S25: Calculate net zero CO2 emissions; S26: Calculate the cumulative net carbon emissions when carbon emissions reach neutrality.

4. The method for optimizing the net emission path of the entire life cycle based on the natural carbon cycle according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The continuous differentiable function of step S21 is expressed as: NCE=f(e)=p(e)+h(e) Among them, NCE is net carbon emissions, f(e) is the expression of net carbon emissions, p(e) is the expression of carbon emissions, h(e) is the expression of carbon sinks, and e is the level of economic development, expressed in terms of regional gross domestic product (GDP).

5. The method for optimizing the net emission path of the entire life cycle based on the natural carbon cycle according to claim 3 is characterized in that: When the carbon emissions in step S22 reach a peak value, the maximum value condition is satisfied as follows: e=e d , then Carbon emission peak M P Expressed as: M p = p(e d ) Among them, e d Indicates the level of carbon economic development when carbon emissions reach their peak.

6. The method for optimizing the net emission path of the entire life cycle based on the natural carbon cycle according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The peak value of the net carbon emission in step S23 is expressed as: M f =f(e d ) If the carbon sink h(e) is set to be an ideal constant A, then: That is, when carbon emissions reach their peak, net carbon emissions can also ideally have a maximum value, and the net carbon emission peak is M f .

7. The method for optimizing the net emission path of the entire life cycle based on the natural carbon cycle according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The cumulative carbon emission function in step S24 is expressed as: CNCE=g(e)=∫f(e)de Among them, CNCE is the cumulative net carbon emissions, and the cumulative net carbon emissions growth rate is the first-order derivative of the function, which is measured by the net carbon emissions level.

8. The method for optimizing the net emission path of the entire life cycle based on the natural carbon cycle according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The net zero CO2 emission in step S25 is expressed as: At the same time: Among them, e2 represents the level of economic development when carbon emissions reach neutrality.

9. The method for optimizing the net emission path of the entire life cycle based on the natural carbon cycle according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The carbon emission coupling effect in step S3 includes the interactive coupling and continuous upgrading drive of five effects: natural effect, scale effect, structural effect, neutralization effect and technical effect.

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