Method for evaluating influence of construction project on hydrological station based on multilevel grey entropy weight method

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of risk evaluation and management, in particular to a method for evaluating the influence of a construction project on a hydrological station based on a multilevel grey entropy weight method. Establishing an index evaluation system of the influence of the construction project on the hydrological station; the index evaluation system comprises a plurality of evaluation indexes; grading the action degree of each evaluation index in the index evaluation system to obtain an action degree value of each evaluation index; calculating the weight of each evaluation index according to each evaluation index value and the corresponding action degree value; establishing a gray evaluation model according to each evaluation index value and the corresponding weight; and obtaining an influence degree value of the construction project on the hydrological station according to the gray evaluation model, and obtaining an influence level of the construction project on the hydrological station by using the influence degree value. A set of complete evaluation index system is provided for the influence degree of the construction project on the hydrological station, the calculation mode is simple, and the risk level of the construction project on the operation of the hydrological station can be rapidly evaluated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of risk assessment and management, and particularly to an evaluation method for the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations based on the multi-level grey entropy weight method. Background Art

[0002] Hydrological work is an important basic work that provides a scientific basis for national economic construction, flood control and drought relief, water resource development and utilization, and water environment protection. It is also a traditional professional work. With the emergence of new technologies and the invention of new processes, construction projects have made great progress in recent years, received more and more attention, and continuously broken through limits in the development process, achieving proud results.

[0003] At the same time, construction projects have had a certain impact on hydrological monitoring, mainly on the hydrological characteristics of hydrological stations. To better promote the development of both, it is necessary to clarify the relationship between the two, and take timely measures to analyze and solve the problems that occur in the development process, and promote the rational utilization of water resources as much as possible.

[0004] At present, the research on hydrological stations has become a hot topic for experts in this field. However, the research on the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations is still in its initial stage. No suitable impact evaluation method has been established, and a systematic risk evaluation system for the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations cannot be constructed. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a risk system method that can comprehensively evaluate the impact degree of construction projects on hydrological stations. Summary of the Invention

[0005] To solve the problems existing in the prior art, the present invention provides an evaluation method for the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations based on the multi-level grey entropy weight method. The solution includes: establishing an index evaluation system for the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations; the index evaluation system includes multiple evaluation indicators; grading the role degree of each evaluation indicator in the index evaluation system to obtain the role degree value of each evaluation indicator; calculating the weight of each evaluation indicator according to each evaluation indicator value and its corresponding role degree value; establishing a grey evaluation model according to each evaluation indicator value and its corresponding weight; obtaining the impact degree value of the construction project on the hydrological station according to the grey evaluation model, and obtaining the impact level of the construction project on the hydrological station by using the impact degree value. The present invention proposes a complete set of evaluation index systems for the impact degree of construction projects on hydrological stations, with a simple calculation method, and can quickly evaluate the risk level of the operation of construction projects on hydrological stations.

[0006] The present invention adopts the following technical solution, an evaluation method for the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations based on the multi-level grey entropy weight method, including:

[0007] Establish an index evaluation system for the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations; the index evaluation system includes multiple evaluation indicators;

[0008] Classify the degree of influence of each evaluation indicator in the index evaluation system into levels to obtain the degree of influence values of each evaluation indicator;

[0009] Calculate the weights of each evaluation indicator according to each evaluation indicator value and its corresponding degree of influence value;

[0010] Establish a grey evaluation model according to each evaluation indicator value and its corresponding weight;

[0011] Obtain the impact degree value of the construction project on the hydrological station according to the grey evaluation model, and use this impact degree value to obtain the impact level of the construction project on the hydrological station.

[0012] Furthermore, establish an index evaluation system for the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations, including:

[0013] The evaluation indicators in the evaluation system include:

[0014] Test environment, test facilities and equipment, hydrological information forecasting, hydrological data, and test plans;

[0015] The test environment includes: river channel control and cross-section control;

[0016] The test facilities and equipment include: safety, range, and accuracy;

[0017] The hydrological information forecasting includes: hydrological forecasting and hydrological information;

[0018] The hydrological data includes: hydrological characteristics, hydrological correlation, and data compilation;

[0019] The test plan includes: test plan and test method;

[0020] Furthermore, classify the degree of influence of each evaluation indicator in the index evaluation system, including:

[0021] Based on the test method guidelines of the hydrological station affected by the project, establish a classification table to classify the degree of influence of the evaluation indicators into three levels;

[0022] Through the expert judgment method, conduct level judgment on each evaluation indicator in the index evaluation system to obtain the degree of influence values corresponding to each evaluation indicator.

[0023] Furthermore, according to each evaluation indicator value and its corresponding degree of influence value, calculate the weights of each evaluation indicator, including:

[0024] Use the range method to preprocess each evaluation indicator value;

[0025] For each preprocessed evaluation index value combined with its degree of influence value, the entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight of each evaluation index value.

[0026] Furthermore, a grey evaluation model is established according to each evaluation index value and its corresponding weight, including:

[0027] Establish a membership degree matrix according to each evaluation index value, and obtain the grey correlation coefficients of pairwise evaluation indexes;

[0028] Establish a weight distribution matrix according to the weights corresponding to each evaluation index;

[0029] Establish a grey evaluation model according to the grey correlation coefficients of the pairwise evaluation indexes and the weight distribution matrix.

[0030] Furthermore, according to the grey evaluation model, obtain the influence degree value of the construction project on the hydrological station, and the expression is:

[0031]

[0032] Among them, S i represents the influence degree value of the construction project on the i-th hydrological station, W j represents the weight distribution matrix of the j-th evaluation index, and U ij represents the grey correlation coefficient matrix corresponding to the j-th evaluation index.

[0033] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: The present invention proposes a complete evaluation index system for analyzing the influence degree of a construction project on a hydrological station. In the calculation process, the entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight, avoiding the influence of subjective factors, making the calculation result of the weight more objective and credible. At the same time, the degree of influence value is introduced as a comprehensive reference factor for weight calculation, making the evaluation result more accurate, and the calculation method is simple and convenient, capable of quickly evaluating the risk level of the construction project on the operation of the hydrological station, so as to make a judgment. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0034] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the following will briefly introduce the drawings required for the description of the embodiments or the prior art. Obviously, the following drawings are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those of ordinary skill in the art, without creative efforts, other drawings can also be obtained based on these drawings.

[0035] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of the method for evaluating the influence of a construction project on a hydrological station based on the multi-level grey entropy weight method in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0036] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of an evaluation system of a method for evaluating the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations based on a multi-level grey entropy weight method according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0037] Figure 3 Schematic diagram of the positional relationship between a construction project and a hydrological station according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0038] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0039] The schematic diagram of the flow chart of the method for evaluating the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations based on the multi-level grey entropy weight method according to the embodiment of the present invention is as follows: Figure 1 As shown, including:

[0040] Establishing an index evaluation system for the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations; the index evaluation system includes multiple evaluation indicators;

[0041] The evaluation indicators in the evaluation system include: test environment, test facilities and equipment, hydrological information forecast, hydrological data and test plan; among them, the test environment includes: river channel control and section control; the test facilities and equipment include: safety, range and accuracy; the hydrological information forecast includes: hydrological forecast and hydrological information; the hydrological data include: hydrological characteristics, hydrological correlation and data compilation; the test plan includes: test plan and test method.

[0042] Classifying the degree of effect of each evaluation indicator in the indicator evaluation system to obtain the degree of effect value of each evaluation indicator;

[0043] Based on the test method guidelines for hydrological stations affected by the project, a grading table is established to divide the degree of effect of the evaluation indicators into three levels; the level of each evaluation indicator in the indicator evaluation system is determined by the expert judgment method to obtain the corresponding degree of effect value of each evaluation indicator.

[0044] Calculate the weight of each evaluation index according to the value of each evaluation index and its corresponding degree of effect;

[0045] In the embodiment of the present invention, the range method is used to pre-process the various evaluation index values; the entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight of each evaluation index value in combination with its degree of effect value after the pre-processing.

[0046] Establish a grey evaluation model based on the values ​​of each evaluation index and its corresponding weight;

[0047] Establish a membership degree matrix based on the values of each evaluation index, and obtain the grey correlation coefficients of pairwise evaluation indices; establish a weight distribution matrix according to the weights corresponding to each evaluation index; establish a grey evaluation model based on the grey correlation coefficients of pairwise evaluation indices and the weight distribution matrix.

[0048] Obtain the influence degree value of the construction project on the hydrological station according to the grey evaluation model, and use this influence degree value to obtain the influence level of the construction project on the hydrological station.

[0049] Obtain the influence degree value of the construction project on the hydrological station according to the grey evaluation model, and the expression is:

[0050]

[0051] where S i represents the influence degree value of the construction project on the i-th hydrological station, W j represents the weight distribution matrix of the j-th evaluation index, and U ij represents the grey correlation coefficient matrix corresponding to the j-th evaluation index.

[0052] In another specific embodiment of the present invention:

[0053] Specifically, constructing an evaluation system for the influence of a construction project on a hydrological station is as follows:

[0054] ① Test environment (A 1 ): River channel control (A 11 ): The influence of the construction project on the river regime stability of the test reach of the hydrological station; Section control (A 12 ): The influence of the construction project on the test section of the hydrological station.

[0055] ② Test facilities and equipment (B 1 ): Safety (B 11 ): The degree of damage to the structural safety of the facilities and equipment of the hydrological station; Measuring range (B 12 ): The degree of damage to the measuring range of the facilities and equipment of the hydrological station; Precision (B 13 ): The degree of damage to the precision of the facilities and equipment of the hydrological station.

[0056] ③ Hydrological information forecasting (C 1 ): Hydrological forecasting (C 11 ): The degree of change in the methods and parameters of hydrological forecasting at the hydrological station due to project construction; and the influence on flood, ice flood, storm surge, water pollution emergency and other forecasting and early warning; Hydrological information (C 12 ): The influence on the collection, scope, quantity of hydrological information, and the timeliness and transmission quality of transmission.

[0057] ④ Hydrological data (D1 ):Hydrological characteristic value (D 11 ):Whether the characteristic values of water level, flow, water quality, and sediment in the hydrological station change due to the engineering construction; Hydrological correlation (D 12 ):The degree of change in the water level-flow curve, representative velocity relationship, and single-section sediment curve of the hydrological station due to the engineering construction; Data compilation method (D 13 ):The influence degree of the data compilation method and frequency of the hydrological station due to the engineering construction.

[0058] ⑤ Test plan (E 1 ):Test method, plan (E 11 ):Mainly includes the influence degree of hydrological elements such as water level, flow, evaporation, sediment, water quality, and ice condition in the hydrological station due to the engineering construction; Test mode (E 12 ):Mainly aims at the impact evaluation of the station modes such as resident measurement, patrol measurement, and intermittent measurement of the hydrological station affected by the engineering construction.

[0059] The degree of influence of each evaluation index in the index evaluation system is divided into grades. In the embodiment of the present invention, referring to the "Guidelines for Test Methods of Hydrological Stations Affected by Projects", the degree of influence of each index in the index evaluation system of the hydrological station affected by the engineering construction is divided into three grades: slight (1-3 points), medium (4-7 points), and severe (8-10 points), as shown in Table 1:

[0060] Table 1 Schematic diagram of the grade division of the influence degree of construction projects on the evaluation indexes of hydrological stations

[0061]

[0062]

[0063] In the embodiment of the present invention, to determine the weights of the evaluation indexes in the evaluation system of the influence of the construction project on the hydrological station, the steps are as follows:

[0064] First, the extreme difference method is used to preprocess the evaluation index data to obtain the standardized evaluation index, and the expression is:

[0065]

[0066] In the formula: Y ij is the evaluation index value after the standardization process; X ij is the influence degree value of the jth evaluation index of the construction project on the ith hydrological station; X min , X max are respectively the minimum and maximum values of the influence degree of the construction project on the jth evaluation index of the hydrological station.

[0067] Calculate the proportion P ij of the value of the jth evaluation index of the ith hydrological station:

[0068]

[0069] Calculate the entropy value E of the j-th index ij :

[0070]

[0071] Wherein: is a proportionality coefficient; m is the number of samples.

[0072] Calculate the information entropy redundancy g of the i-th index ij :

[0073] g ij = 1 - E ij

[0074] Thus, calculate the weight W of the j-th index ij Expressed as:

[0075]

[0076] The method for constructing the grey evaluation model in the embodiment of the present invention is specifically as follows:

[0077] First, establish a relative membership matrix based on the standardized data:

[0078]

[0079] After normalizing according to the above rules, set the optimal index set as a one-dimensional unit vector Y 0 =(1, 1,..., 1) T , and the number m is determined by the number of indexes.

[0080] Take the optimal index set Y 0 =(y 10 , y 20 ,..., y n0 ) T , as the reference data series, and the evaluation index set Y 0 =(y 1j , y 2j ,..., y nj ) T (j = 1,..., m) as the data series to be compared, then the correlation coefficient μ between the i-th index and the j-th optimal index can be obtained by the following formula ij :

[0081] Denote According to the determined relative membership matrix and the optimal index set, it is known that m = 0, then:

[0082]

[0083] In the formula: the discrimination coefficient ξ ∈ [0, 1], generally ξ = 0.5.

[0084] The established grey evaluation model is as follows:

[0085] R = W × U, where R = (r 1 , r 2 , …, r n ) is the comprehensive evaluation result matrix of n schemes, where: represents the evaluation result of the j-th scheme; W = {w 1 , w 2 … w n} is the weight distribution matrix of m evaluation indexes; U = {(u ij ) m×n} is the correlation coefficient matrix of each index.

[0086] Finally, determine the influence degree value S i of the construction project on the operation of the i-th hydrological station, and the expression is:

[0087]

[0088] Among them, S i represents the influence degree value of the construction project on the i-th hydrological station, W j represents the weight distribution matrix of the j-th evaluation index, and U ij represents the grey correlation coefficient matrix corresponding to the j-th evaluation index.

[0089] In the embodiment of the present invention, referring to the "Hydrological Measurement Handbook", the influence degree of the hydrological station affected by the project construction is divided into 3 levels, and the detailed level division is shown in Table 2:

[0090] Table 2 Schematic table of the influence level division of the construction project on the hydrological station

[0091]

[0092] Find the influence degree value of the construction project on the operation of the hydrological station obtained by calculation in Table 2, so as to obtain the influence level of the current hydrological station. For example, S 1 = 0.47. According to Table 2, the influence degree of the construction project on the first hydrological station is level II medium, and corresponding measures are taken.

[0093] In another specific embodiment of the present invention:

[0094] Taking the newly built Wanshui River Extra-large Bridge as an example in the embodiment of the present invention, the newly built Wanshui River Extra-large Bridge is in the mountainous area. The construction project involves three hydrological stations within 20 kilometers upstream and downstream, namely: Yujing Hydrological Station, Shipai Hydrological Station, and Yanglianwei Hydrological Station. The positional relationship is shown as Figure 2As shown in the figure, the evaluation indicators are obtained according to the index system proposed by the present invention. Further, a questionnaire survey is conducted on 30 experts. According to the experts' experience, knowledge reserve, and personal values, and combined with the characteristics of the hydrological station itself, the safety level of each indicator is evaluated, forming an index evaluation matrix for the impact system of the construction project on the hydrological station. See Table 3 for details:

[0095] Table 3 Schematic Table of Index Evaluation Matrix for the Impact System of Construction Project on Hydrological Station

[0096]

[0097]

[0098] Furthermore, in the embodiment of the present invention, the entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight results of each evaluation indicator, as shown in Table 4:

[0099] Table 4 Influence Weight Table of the Special Bridge over the Wanshui River on the Hydrological Station

[0100]

[0101] It can be seen from Table 4 Influence Weight Table of the Special Bridge over the Wanshui River on the Hydrological Station that among the criterion layers, the proposed special bridge over the Wanshui River has the greatest impact on the hydrological data in the first-level evaluation indicators and the least impact on the hydrological information forecast; among the index layers, the proposed special bridge over the Wanshui River has the greatest impact on the test method scheme in the second-level evaluation indicators and the least impact on the safety of facilities and equipment. The reason for the least impact on the safety of facilities and equipment in the second-level indicators is that the proposed project is far from the hydrological station and there is no direct physical damage.

[0102] Furthermore, in the embodiment of the present invention, the grey correlation coefficients of the evaluation indicators are determined, as shown in Table 5:

[0103] Table 5 Table of Grey Correlation Coefficients of Indicators

[0104]

[0105]

[0106] A grey evaluation model is established, as shown in Table 6:

[0107] Table 6 Multilevel Grey Evaluation Model Table

[0108]

[0109]

[0110] From Table 6, it is obtained that for Yujing Hydrological Station, S1 = 0.41; for Shipai Hydrological Station, S2 = 0.72; and for Yanglianwei Water Level Station, S3 = 0.51. According to Table 2 in S2, it can be seen that the maximum impact of the proposed Wanshui Special Bridge on Shipai Hydrological Station is severe, the impact on Yujing Hydrological Station is medium, and the impact on Yanglianwei Water Level Station is medium.

[0111] The above are only the preferred embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent replacements, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention shall be included within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. The construction project impact assessment method on the hydrological station based on the multi-level grey entropy weight method is characterized by: include: Establish an indicator evaluation system for the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations; The indicator evaluation system includes multiple evaluation indicators; Classifying the degree of effect of each evaluation indicator in the indicator evaluation system to obtain the degree of effect value of each evaluation indicator; Calculate the weight of each evaluation index according to the value of each evaluation index and its corresponding degree of effect; Establish a grey evaluation model based on the values ​​of each evaluation index and its corresponding weight; The impact degree value of the construction project on the hydrological station is obtained according to the grey evaluation model, and the impact level of the construction project on the hydrological station is obtained using the impact degree value.

2. The method for evaluating the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations based on the multi-level grey entropy weight method according to claim 1 is characterized by: Establish an indicator evaluation system for the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations, including: The evaluation indicators in the evaluation system include: Test environment, test facilities and equipment, hydrological information forecast, hydrological data and test plan; The test environment includes: river channel control and section control; The test facilities and equipment include: safety, range and accuracy; The hydrological information forecast includes: hydrological forecast and hydrological information; The hydrological data include: hydrological characteristics, hydrological correlations and data compilation; The test plan includes: a test plan and a test method.

3. The method for evaluating the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations based on the multi-level grey entropy weight method according to claim 1 is characterized by: The degree of effect of each evaluation indicator in the indicator evaluation system is graded, including: A grading table is established based on the test method guidelines for hydrological stations affected by the project, and the degree of effect of the evaluation indicators is divided into three levels; Each evaluation index in the index evaluation system is judged by an expert judgment method to obtain the effect degree value corresponding to each evaluation index.

4. The method for evaluating the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations based on the multi-level grey entropy weight method according to claim 1 is characterized by: According to the values ​​of each evaluation index and its degree of effect, the weight of each evaluation index is calculated, including: Preprocessing each evaluation index value by using the range method; The entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight of each evaluation index value after preprocessing and its effect degree value.

5. The method for evaluating the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations based on the multi-level grey entropy weight method according to claim 1 is characterized by: A grey evaluation model is established based on the values ​​of various evaluation indicators and their corresponding weights, including: Establish a membership matrix according to the values ​​of each evaluation index and obtain the grey correlation coefficients of the two evaluation indexes; Establish a weight allocation matrix according to the weights corresponding to each evaluation indicator; A grey evaluation model is established according to the grey correlation coefficients of the pairwise evaluation indicators and the weight distribution matrix.

6. The method for evaluating the impact of construction projects on hydrological stations based on the multi-level grey entropy weight method according to claim 1 is characterized by: According to the grey evaluation model, the impact degree of the construction project on the hydrological station is obtained, and the expression is: Among them, S i represents the impact of the construction project on the i-th hydrological station, W j represents the weight distribution matrix of the jth evaluation index, U ij Represents the grey correlation coefficient matrix corresponding to the j-th evaluation index.

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