Short-term wind power prediction method for dynamic time sequence fusion of multi-source heterogeneous data

Abstract

The invention provides a short-term wind power prediction method for dynamic time sequence fusion of multi-source heterogeneous data, which comprises the following steps: reading and preprocessing multi-source data, and extracting time sequence characteristics; constructing a uniform feature representation space by applying an adversarial hash generator, and performing disturbance immune training and projection diversity regularization processing; the physical law and data distribution characteristics of the wind power system are integrated into the enhanced Hash code set, constraint projection and distribution calibration are carried out, a heterogeneous relation graph is constructed based on the processed Hash codes, and correction is carried out by using historical similar condition data; and performing short-term wind power prediction on the dynamic fusion relation graph by applying GCN. According to the method, the prediction precision and robustness are remarkably improved, and particularly, the prediction error is reduced by about 50% under the extreme meteorological condition.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to wind power prediction, and in particular to a short-term wind power prediction method based on dynamic time series fusion of multi-source heterogeneous data. Background Art

[0002] As energy transformation accelerates, wind power, as a key clean energy, plays an increasingly important role in the global power system. However, the intermittent, random and volatile nature of wind power poses a huge challenge to the safe and stable operation of the power grid. Accurate and reliable short-term wind power forecasting has become a key technical support for high-proportion access and consumption of wind power. High-precision wind power forecasting can significantly improve the operating efficiency of wind farms, reduce the wind abandonment rate, reduce the backup capacity of conventional power sources, optimize the power grid dispatching plan, and provide a solid foundation for the large-scale application of renewable energy.

[0003] At present, the research on wind power prediction is mainly divided into three categories: physical model method, statistical learning method and hybrid model method. The physical model method is based on the principles of fluid mechanics and thermodynamics, and calculates the power output through numerical weather forecast and wind turbine characteristic curve. It is suitable for long-term prediction but is not good at describing local micro-meteorological characteristics. The statistical learning method relies on historical data and uses traditional machine learning methods such as support vector machines and random forests or deep learning models such as long short-term memory networks and recursive neural networks to mine the inherent laws of data, but it is highly dependent on data quality. The hybrid model method combines the advantages of the first two methods, and integrates multiple prediction results through combined prediction or cascade structure, such as wavelet decomposition combined with artificial neural networks, Gaussian processes combined with deep learning, etc., which shows good adaptability under different time scales and meteorological conditions.

[0004] However, existing prediction methods face several key technical challenges: First, in heterogeneous data fusion, the distribution of wind turbine operation data, meteorological data and power grid load data is significantly different. Existing methods cannot effectively eliminate the characteristic deviation of data types, resulting in difficulty in unified feature space representation, thus affecting the subsequent fusion prediction effect. Second, existing prediction methods ignore the constraint integration between the physical laws of wind power systems and data-driven models, lack an effective mechanism to actively guide physical laws, and often cause subtle but critical prediction errors in model output that violate wind farm operation specifications. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of the invention is to provide a short-term wind power prediction method based on dynamic time series fusion of multi-source heterogeneous data, in order to solve at least one technical problem existing in the prior art.

[0006] The technical solution provides a short-term wind power forecasting method based on dynamic time series fusion of multi-source heterogeneous data, including: Read and preprocess multi-source data, extract time series features from them, and generate a time series feature vector set; Based on the time series feature vector set and preset environmental conditions, an adversarial hash generator is used to construct a unified feature representation space, and projection diversity regularization and perturbation immunity training are performed to generate an enhanced hash code set. The physical laws and data distribution characteristics of the wind power system are integrated into the enhanced hash code, and constraint projection and distribution calibration are performed. A heterogeneous relationship graph is constructed based on the processed hash code, and historical similar condition data is used for correction to generate a dynamic fusion relationship graph. GCN is applied on the dynamic fusion relationship graph to perform short-term wind power forecasting and obtain the wind power forecast value.

[0007] Preferably, the step of generating an enhanced hash code set comprises: Input the temporal feature vector set and environmental conditions into the adversarial hash generator, and generate a type-neutral hash code through the type recognition discriminator and adversarial training; The covariance matrix of the type-neutral hash code is calculated, and projection diversity regularization is applied to make the hash code distribution uniform and generate diversity-enhanced hash codes; Perturbation immune training is applied to the diversity enhanced hash codes, and the difference between the hash codes before and after perturbation is minimized to generate an enhanced hash code set.

[0008] Preferably, the step of generating a type-neutral hash code comprises: Applying a feature extraction function to the time series feature vector set to generate a feature extraction result; Applying an environmental condition encoding function to the environmental condition to generate an environmental condition encoding result; The feature extraction results and the environmental condition encoding results are fused to generate feature fusion results and pass through the hash mapping layer to generate the original hash code; Based on the original hash code, the hash representations of different data types are distinguished through the type recognition discriminator, the discriminator output is generated and the discriminator accuracy is minimized, so that the hash generator is prompted to produce a type-independent unified representation and generate a type-neutral hash code.

[0009] Preferably, the step of generating a diversity-enhanced hash code comprises: Perform distribution statistics analysis on the type-neutral hash code set, calculate the hash code mean vector, and generate hash distribution statistics; Based on the hash distribution statistics, the covariance matrix of the hash code set is calculated to generate a hash covariance matrix; Calculate the eigenvalues ​​of the hash covariance matrix, design the diversity loss function based on it, and calculate the diversity loss value; The diversity loss value is back-propagated to the hash generator network, the gradient is calculated and the network parameters are updated to generate diversity-enhanced hash codes.

[0010] Preferably, the step of generating an enhanced hash code set comprises: Analyze the time series feature vector set corresponding to the diversity enhanced hash code, calculate the sensitivity index of each dimensional feature, and generate a feature sensitivity matrix; based on this, adopt an adaptive perturbation generation strategy to generate perturbations for high and low sensitivity dimensions respectively, and obtain an adaptive perturbation vector and an environmental condition perturbation vector; Add the adaptive perturbation vector to the time series feature vector set, add the environmental condition perturbation vector to the environmental condition, generate the perturbation feature vector set and the perturbation environmental condition respectively, and generate the perturbation hash code accordingly, and calculate the perturbation distance between the perturbation code and the original hash code; Through the robustness loss function, the difference between the hash codes before and after the perturbation is minimized to generate an enhanced hash code set.

[0011] Preferably, the step of generating a dynamic fusion relationship graph includes: Apply physical constraint gradient projection to the enhanced hash code set, adjust the hash code to meet the physical constraint, generate the physical constraint hash code and analyze its distribution characteristics under the current environmental conditions, perform distribution calibration, and obtain the calibrated hash code and the initial relationship diagram; Retrieve the historical conditions most similar to the current environmental conditions and their corresponding hash representations from the historical database, perform historical information correction on the calibration hash code, and generate a historical correction hash code; The node representation and edge weights of the relationship graph are updated based on the historical revised hash code to generate a dynamic fusion relationship graph.

[0012] Preferably, the step of generating a physical constraint hash code comprises: Based on the physical constraint rule library, a comprehensive physical constraint function is constructed, including the wind speed-power curve constraint function, the cut-in and cut-out wind speed constraint function, and the power change rate constraint function. The weights of each constraint are dynamically adjusted to generate a comprehensive physical violation degree. Calculate the gradient of the comprehensive physical violation degree with respect to the hash code to generate a physical violation gradient; Design an adaptive step-size control strategy based on the physical violation degree to generate an adaptive projection step-size; The gradient projection formula is applied and combined with the projection step size to adjust the hash code in the direction that satisfies the physical constraints and generate a physical constraint hash code.

[0013] Preferably, using historical similar condition data for correction includes: According to the environmental conditions, the environmental condition feature vector is constructed, including time factors, meteorological factors and system status; Based on the weighted environmental condition distance measurement function and the historical condition index structure, multiple historical conditions that are most similar to the current environmental condition are queried to obtain a set of similar historical conditions; Calculate the similarity between each condition in the similar historical condition set and the current condition, and normalize them to obtain a similarity weight vector; Retrieve the historical hash code corresponding to the similar historical condition set, and calculate the weighted historical hash code according to the similarity weight vector; The weighted historical hash code is adjusted toward the historical experience by applying the historical matching correction formula, and the node representation and edge weight of the updated relationship graph based on the historical corrected hash code are obtained to generate a dynamic fusion relationship graph.

[0014] Preferably, the distribution calibration comprises: Analyze the distribution characteristics of the physical constraint hash code under the current environmental conditions, calculate the mean vector and standard deviation vector of the hash code under the current conditions, and obtain the hash distribution statistics; Applying a distribution calibration formula to adjust the hash distribution to a predefined target distribution; A relationship graph is constructed based on the cosine similarity between the calibrated hash codes. Each data point is used as a node in the graph and the similarity is used as the edge weight to form an initial relationship graph that represents the internal relationship of multi-source data.

[0015] Preferably, applying a graph convolutional neural network on a dynamic fusion relationship graph to perform short-term wind power forecasting includes: Apply multi-layer graph convolution operations on the dynamic fusion relationship graph, combine the attention mechanism to fuse node features and graph structure information, and generate graph convolution features; A time series prediction layer is constructed based on graph convolution features, and the original power prediction value is output for the prediction time domain; Combined with the wind farm power curve model and current operating status, physical constraint correction is performed on the original power forecast value, and the corrected power forecast value is output; The confidence interval estimation method is applied to calculate the prediction uncertainty of the corrected power prediction value, and the wind power prediction result including the prediction value and confidence interval is output.

[0016] Preferably, generating a comprehensive physical violation degree includes: Construct a wind speed-power curve constraint function, calculate the deviation between the predicted power corresponding to the hash code and the allowable power range under a given wind speed, and generate the power curve violation degree; Constructing a cut-in and cut-out wind speed constraint function, calculating the power output violation degree under the conditions of being lower than the cut-in wind speed or higher than the cut-out wind speed, and generating the cut-in and cut-out violation degree; Design a power change rate constraint function, calculate the degree to which the power change at adjacent moments exceeds the maximum allowable change rate, and generate the change rate violation degree; Integrate the above constraint functions, construct a comprehensive physical violation function, dynamically adjust the weights of each constraint, and generate a comprehensive physical violation.

[0017] Beneficial effect: This method significantly improves the prediction accuracy and robustness, especially in extreme meteorological conditions, the prediction error is reduced by about 50%. The relevant technical effects will be described in detail in conjunction with specific embodiments. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0018] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the present invention.

[0019] Figure 2 It is an overall flow chart of generating an enhanced hash code set according to the present invention.

[0020] Figure 3 It is a flow chart of generating type-neutral hash codes according to the present invention.

[0021] Figure 4 It is a flow chart of generating diversity enhanced hash code of the present invention.

[0022] Figure 5 The present invention applies perturbation immunity training to diversity enhanced hash codes to generate a flow chart of an enhanced hash code set.

[0023] Figure 6 It is a flow chart of the present invention for generating a dynamic fusion relationship graph. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0024] like Figures 1 to 6 As shown in the figure, the short-term wind power forecasting method based on dynamic time series fusion of multi-source heterogeneous data includes: S1. Obtain meteorological data, wind turbine operation data, power grid load data and historical power data, perform data cleaning, interpolation and standardization, and apply multi-scale time series decomposition and feature extraction methods to generate a time series feature vector set.

[0025] S11. Collect wind turbine operation data, including monitoring data such as wind turbine speed, yaw angle, pitch angle, generator torque, etc., and standardize them using the minimum-maximum normalization method to obtain standardized wind turbine operation data.

[0026] S12. Obtain meteorological data, including wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity, air pressure and other data, use an anomaly detection algorithm based on physical relationships to identify and correct abnormal meteorological data points, and obtain cleaned meteorological data.

[0027] S13. Integrate the standardized wind turbine operation data with the cleaned meteorological data to construct a time-aligned multi-source fusion data set to ensure that data from different sources accurately match in the time dimension.

[0028] S14. Adaptive multi-scale spectral analysis is applied to the multi-source fusion data set to decompose the time series data into different frequency components, capturing the long-term trend, periodic pattern and short-term fluctuation respectively, and obtaining the frequency domain decomposition data.

[0029] S15. Combine the frequency domain decomposition data and the original multi-source fusion data set to extract comprehensive features including time domain statistical features, frequency domain energy distribution and phase relationship to generate the final time series feature vector set.

[0030] S2. Based on the time series feature vector set and environmental conditions, an adversarial hash generator is applied to construct a unified feature representation space, and the robustness and discriminability of the representation are improved through perturbation immune training and projection diversity regularization to generate an enhanced hash code set.

[0031] S21. Design an adversarial hash generator structure that receives a set of temporal feature vectors and environmental conditions as input, maps them to the hash space through a multi-layer neural network, and preliminarily generates the original hash code.

[0032] S22. Introduce a type recognition discriminator to try to distinguish the hash representations of different data types (wind speed, temperature, etc.). Minimize the discriminator accuracy through adversarial training, and encourage the hash generator to produce a type-independent unified representation to obtain a type-neutral hash code.

[0033] S23. Calculate the covariance matrix for type-neutral hash codes and design the projection diversity regularization term L diversity =-log(det(Cov({h i}))), the regularization term is incorporated into the optimization objective of the hash generator to ensure that the generated hash codes have good distribution diversity and output diversity-enhanced hash codes.

[0034] S24. Apply the perturbation immune training mechanism for diversity enhanced hash codes, add controlled perturbations to the input features and environmental conditions, calculate the difference between the hash codes before and after the perturbation, minimize the difference loss L_robust = ||h' - h||^2, improve the robustness of the hash representation to input changes, and generate the final enhanced hash code set.

[0035] S3. Integrate the physical laws and data distribution characteristics of the wind power system into the enhanced hash code set, perform constraint projection and distribution calibration, and build a heterogeneous relationship graph based on the processed hash code. Use historical similar condition data for correction to generate a dynamic fusion relationship graph.

[0036] S31. Construct a physical constraint model for the wind power system, including wind speed-power curve constraints, cut-in and cut-out wind speed constraints, power change rate constraints, and wind direction impact constraints, which are integrated into a comprehensive physical violation function V(h) to evaluate the physical rationality of the hash representation.

[0037] S32. Calculate the physical violation degree V(h) for each hash code h in the enhanced hash code set and apply the gradient projection method h constrained = h - η·▽ hV(h) adjusts the hash code in the direction of satisfying the physical constraints to obtain the physical constraint hash code.

[0038] S33. Analyze the distribution characteristics of the physical constraint hash code under the current environmental conditions and calculate the mean μ h (c) and standard deviation σ h (c), through the distribution calibration formula h calibrated = (h - μ h (c)) / σ h (c) * σ t arget + μ t arget adjusts the hash distribution to the target distribution and outputs a calibrated hash code.

[0039] S34. Constructing the initial relationship graph G based on the cosine similarity between the calibrated hash codes i nit, takes each data point as a node in the graph and the similarity as the edge weight to form an initial relationship graph that represents the internal relationship of multi-source data.

[0040] S35. Design a historical matching correction mechanism to retrieve the k historical conditions most similar to the current environmental conditions from the historical database {c sim} and its corresponding hash representation {h history}, calculate the conditional similarity weight β = exp(-d(c,c sim ) / τ) / (exp(-d(c,c sim ) / τ) + α), where d is the conditional distance metric, and τ and α are control parameters.

[0041] S36. Apply the historical correction formula h corrected = h calibrated + β·(h history -h calibrated ) adjusts the calibration hash code, updates the edge weights of the relationship graph according to the corrected hash code, and generates the final dynamic fusion relationship graph.

[0042] S4. Apply graph convolutional neural network on the dynamic fusion relationship graph to perform short-term wind power forecasting, and combine it with the physical model for post-processing to output the final wind power forecast value.

[0043] S41. Apply graph convolutional neural network on the dynamic fusion relationship graph to fuse node features with graph structure information, extract high-order relationship features through multi-layer graph convolution operations, and generate graph convolution features.

[0044] S42. Construct a time series prediction layer based on graph convolution features and output preliminary raw power prediction values ​​for the prediction time domain (such as the next 24 hours).

[0045] S43. Combine the wind farm power curve model and the current operating status, perform physical constraint correction on the original power prediction value, ensure that the prediction result conforms to the physical characteristics of the wind turbine and the grid operation specifications, and output the corrected power prediction value.

[0046] S44. Apply the confidence interval estimation method to calculate the prediction uncertainty of the corrected power prediction value, provide a reliable confidence interval for wind power prediction, and finally output the wind power prediction result including the prediction value and the confidence interval.

[0047] According to one aspect of the present application, S23, projection diversity regularization refinement, is specifically: S231. Get type-neutral hash code set H = {h 1 , h 2 , ..., h_n}, where h i ∈ R^d represents a d-dimensional hash vector, n is the number of samples, and the distribution characteristics of the hash set are statistically analyzed to obtain the hash distribution statistics.

[0048] S232. Based on the hash distribution statistics, calculate the covariance matrix of the hash code set Σ = 1 / n·∑(h i -μ)(h i - μ)^T, where μ = 1 / n·∑h i is the hash code mean vector, and the hash covariance matrix Σ is obtained.

[0049] S233. Calculate the eigenvalues ​​of the hash covariance matrix Σλ = {λ 1 , λ 2 , ..., λ_d}, use the power method to iteratively solve the main eigenvalues, detect whether there are eigenvalues ​​that are approximately zero, and generate an eigenvalue analysis report.

[0050] S234. Design diversity loss function L based on eigenvalue analysis report diversity = -log(det(Σ) + ε)= -∑log(λ i + ε), where ε is a small constant to prevent numerical instability, and the diversity loss value is obtained.

[0051] S235. Back-propagate the diversity loss value to the hash generator network and calculate the gradient ▽_θL diversity , where θ is the network parameter, and the network parameter θ_new = θ - α·▽_θL is updated by the gradient descent method diversity , α is the learning rate, generating new diversity enhanced hash codes.

[0052] S236. Construct a hash distribution visualization map, project the diversity-enhanced hash code onto a two-dimensional plane through t-SNE dimensionality reduction, analyze the uniformity and coverage of the hash distribution, and generate a hash distribution evaluation report.

[0053] S237. Dynamically adjust the diversity regularization strength λ based on the hash distribution evaluation report diversity , forming an adaptive regularization strategy λ_new = f(λ, hash distribution evaluation index), and outputting the final adaptive diversity enhanced hash code.

[0054] According to one aspect of the present application, S24, perturbation immunity training is refined, specifically: S241. Receive the diversity enhanced hash code and the corresponding time series feature vector set and environmental conditions as input, and construct a disturbance generator for generating controlled disturbances.

[0055] S242. Analyze the characteristics of the time series feature vector set and calculate the sensitivity index S of each dimension feature i = dh / dx i , which is the partial derivative of the hash code with respect to the input feature, and the feature sensitivity matrix is ​​obtained. d is the symbol of the partial derivative.

[0056] S243. Based on the feature sensitivity matrix, an adaptive perturbation generation strategy is designed to generate smaller perturbations for highly sensitive dimensions and larger perturbations for less sensitive dimensions, generating an adaptive perturbation vector δ, where δ i ∝ 1 / S i ·r, r is a random factor.

[0057] S244. Apply a similar method to analyze the sensitivity of environmental conditions and generate an environmental condition disturbance vector ε, while ensuring that the environmental conditions after the disturbance are still within a reasonable range, and obtain the environmental condition disturbance vector.

[0058] S245. Add the adaptive disturbance vector δ to the time series feature vector set, add the environmental condition disturbance vector ε to the environmental condition, and generate a disturbance feature vector set and a disturbance environmental condition after the disturbance.

[0059] S246. Use the original input and the perturbed input to pass through the hash generator respectively to obtain the original hash code h and the perturbed hash code h', and calculate the Euclidean distance d(h, h') = ||h - h'|| between the hash codes before and after the perturbation 2 , and get the hash perturbation distance.

[0060] S247. Design disturbance robustness loss function L_robust = 1 / n·∑d(h i , h' i )^2, where n is the number of samples, and the robustness loss value is calculated.

[0061] S248. Design an adversarial perturbation training algorithm to iteratively find the perturbation vector that maximizes the hash perturbation distance to form the most challenging adversarial sample and obtain the adversarial perturbation vector set.

[0062] S249. Combined with the adversarial samples generated by the adversarial perturbation vector set, immune training is performed, and the robustness loss value is back-propagated to update the hash generator parameters, so that the model is immune to perturbations and the final enhanced hash code set is output while ensuring that the diversity characteristics are not destroyed.

[0063] According to one aspect of the present application, S32, physical constraint gradient projection refinement, is specifically: S321. Obtain an enhanced hash code set, analyze the physical laws of the wind power system, including the relationship between wind speed and power, power curve characteristics, cut-in and cut-out wind speed constraints, power change rate limits, etc., and establish a physical constraint rule base.

[0064] S322. Based on the physical constraint rule base, construct the wind speed-power curve constraint function V_power(h) = ∑max(0, P(h) - P max (WS(h)) 2 + ∑max(0, P min (WS(h)) - P(h)) 2 , where P(h) is the predicted power corresponding to the hash code, WS(h) is the wind speed information contained in the hash code, and P max and P min are the maximum and minimum possible powers at a given wind speed, respectively, and the power curve violation is obtained.

[0065] S323. Constructing the cut-in and cut-out wind speed constraint function V c utoff(h) = max(0, P(h)) 2 ·I(WS(h) <WS cut-in ) + max(0, P(h)) 2 ·I(WS(h)>WS cut-out ), where I() is the indicative function, WS cut-in and WS cut-out are the cut-in and cut-out wind speeds respectively, and the cut-in and cut-out violation degrees are obtained.

[0066] S324. Design power change rate constraint function V ramp (h, h prev ) = max(0, |P(h) - P(h prev )| / Δt - R max ) 2 , where hprev is the hash code of the previous moment, Δt is the time interval, R max is the maximum allowable power change rate, and the change rate violation degree is obtained.

[0067] S325. Integrate various constraint functions and construct a comprehensive physical violation function V(h) = w 1 ·V power (h) + w 2 ·V cutoff (h) + w 3 ·V ramp (h, h prev ), where w 1 、w 2 、w 3 is a weight parameter, which is dynamically adjusted according to the importance of the constraint to obtain the comprehensive physical violation degree.

[0068] S326. Calculate the comprehensive physical violation degree V(h) and its gradient with respect to h for each enhanced hash code h h V(h), the gradient is efficiently calculated using automatic differentiation techniques to obtain the physically violated gradient.

[0069] S327. Design an adaptive step-size control strategy to dynamically adjust the projection step size η = η according to the degree of physical violation 0 min(1, V(h) / V threshold ), where η 0 is the basic step length, V threshold is the threshold parameter, and the adaptive projection step size is obtained.

[0070] S328. Apply the gradient projection formula h constrained = h - η·▽ h V(h), adjusts the hash code in the direction of satisfying the physical constraints, ensures that the projected hash code retains the original information and satisfies the physical constraints, and outputs the physical constraint hash code.

[0071] According to one aspect of the present application, S36, historical matching correction and refinement, specifically: S361. Obtain the current environmental condition c and the calibration hash code, construct an environmental condition feature vector, including time factors (hour, date, season), meteorological factors (wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, humidity, etc.) and system status (grid-connected capacity, scheduling strategy, etc.), and obtain the environmental condition feature vector.

[0072] S362. Establishing the environmental condition distance measurement function d(c 1 , c 2 ) = ∑w i ·|c 1 i-c 2 i | / σ i , where w i is the weight of the i-th conditional feature, σ i is the standard deviation of the feature, and the weight w is automatically learned by minimizing the prediction error under historical similar conditions i , and obtain the conditional distance function.

[0073] S363. Construct a historical condition index structure (such as a KD tree or a ball tree), spatially partition the historical environmental condition database, support efficient nearest neighbor queries, and generate a historical condition index.

[0074] S364. Based on the conditional distance function and the historical condition index, query the k historical conditions {c sim1 , c sim2 , ..., c simk}, and obtain a similar historical condition set.

[0075] S365. For each condition c in the similar historical condition set simi , calculate its similarity s with the current condition c i =exp(-d(c, c simi ) / τ), where τ is the temperature parameter, which controls the smoothness of the similarity distribution and obtains the conditional similarity vector.

[0076] S366. Normalize the conditional similarity vector and calculate the similarity weight β i = s i / (s i + α), where α is a balance parameter that controls the trade-off between historical information and current information. A larger α value reduces the impact of historical information, and a similarity weight vector is obtained.

[0077] S367. Retrieve the historical hash code corresponding to the similar historical condition set {h history1 , h history2 , ...,h historyk}, and calculate the weighted average historical hash code h according to the similarity weight vector history-avg = ∑β i ·h historyi / ∑β i , get the weighted historical hash code.

[0078] S368. Apply the historical matching correction formula h corrected = (1-γ)·h calibrated + γ·β·h history-avg, where γ is the global mixing coefficient and β is the overall historical information weight. γ and β are dynamically adjusted to balance current information and historical experience, and the historical correction hash code is output.

[0079] S369. Based on the historically corrected hash code, the node representation and edge weights of the relationship graph are updated, the similarities between nodes are recalculated and the adjacency matrix is ​​updated to generate the final dynamic fusion relationship graph.

[0080] According to one aspect of the present application, S41, graph convolution feature extraction refinement, specifically: S411. Receive a dynamic fusion relationship graph G = (V, E, A), where V is a node set, E is an edge set, A is an adjacency matrix, and a node feature matrix X, where each row represents a feature vector of a node, constructed based on a historically corrected hash code, to obtain graph input data.

[0081] S412. Design a multi-head graph attention layer and calculate the attention coefficient α ij = softmax(LeakyReLU(a T [Wh i ||Wh j ])), where W is the weight matrix, a is the attention vector, and h i and h j is the node feature, and the attention weight matrix is ​​obtained.

[0082] S413. Construct graph convolution operation and aggregate neighbor information h' according to the attention weight matrix i = σ(∑α ij ·Wh j ), where σ is the activation function, which realizes feature propagation and conversion and obtains the first-order graph convolution feature.

[0083] S414. Design a residual connection mechanism to combine the original node features with the graph convolution features h res = h + h', reducing the gradient vanishing problem and retaining the original information to obtain the residual graph convolution feature.

[0084] S415. Construct a multi-layer graph convolution structure and stack L layers of graph convolution operations to capture high-order relationship features within L-hop neighborhoods. Apply batch normalization and ReLU activation function after each layer to obtain multi-layer graph convolution features.

[0085] S416. Design a temporal attention mechanism to perform weighted aggregation on graph convolution features of different time windows and calculate the temporal attention weight β t = softmax(v T tanh(W t ·h t )), where v and Wt is a learnable parameter, h t is the feature at time t, and the time-weighted feature is obtained.

[0086] S417. Fusion of spatial and temporal feature representations. Multi-layer graph convolutional features are concatenated with temporal weighted features and mapped through fully connected layers to obtain spatiotemporal fusion features.

[0087] S418. Design the output prediction layer to map the spatiotemporal fusion features to the prediction target space, adapt to the needs of different prediction time domains, and generate the final graph convolution features for subsequent power prediction.

[0088] In this embodiment, unified representation learning of heterogeneous data is realized, so that different physical quantities such as wind speed, temperature, and load maintain information equivalence in the same hash space, thereby eliminating type bias in data fusion. Structural-level self-adaptation is achieved through cosine similarity calculation and historical matching correction based on calibrated hash codes. When wind conditions change drastically, the historical matching mechanism can extract experience from similar historical conditions, so that the hash representation is adjusted in the direction of historical reliable samples, thereby dynamically updating the graph structure. Dynamic adaptability enables the model to automatically adjust the association weights and topological structures between data according to the specific environmental conditions at each prediction moment, effectively handle non-stationary scenarios such as sudden changes in power grid load and changes in weather systems, and provide a stable and reliable structural foundation for wind power prediction, avoiding the problem of prediction collapse of traditional fixed graph structures under complex meteorological conditions. Perturbation immune training automatically identifies key features and enhances their robustness in a targeted manner by calculating the feature sensitivity matrix, making the model insensitive to small perturbations of non-critical features. The adaptive regularization strength is dynamically adjusted according to the hash distribution evaluation report, realizing an automatic optimization process from λ=0.1 to λ=0.21. The physical laws of wind power systems (such as wind speed-power curve constraints, cut-in and cut-out wind speed constraints, and power change rate constraints) are directly integrated into the hash representation learning process. The adaptive projection step size strategy enables samples with higher violation degrees to obtain greater correction strength. The ablation experiment shows that removing the physical constraint gradient projection will increase the MAPE by 2.3 percentage points, which is the largest impact among all components. This physical perception capability is particularly reflected in extreme conditions, such as high wind speed (>20m / s). The MAPE of this scheme is 5.7%, while the pure data-driven method is as high as 17.8%. The deep integration of physical perception ensures that the prediction results strictly comply with the wind turbine characteristic curve and grid operation specifications, avoiding the common non-physical prediction problems of traditional models (such as high power at low wind speed, positive power at cut-out wind speed, etc.), providing more reliable prediction support for the safe operation of wind farms, and significantly reducing wind abandonment events and unit losses caused by prediction errors.

[0089] Example 1: Demonstration using actual data from a wind farm, including meteorological data, wind turbine operation data, grid load data, and historical power data. For example: wind turbine operation data includes parameters such as the speed, yaw angle, pitch angle, generator torque, etc. of 5 wind turbines, with a sampling frequency of 10 minutes / time, for a total of 720 time points (5 days of data). Meteorological data include wind speed (0-25m / s), wind direction (0-359°), temperature (-10℃-40℃), humidity (0-100%), and air pressure (990-1030hPa), with a sampling frequency of 10 minutes / time. Historical power data includes the actual power output in the corresponding time period, in MW. The grid load data includes the total load demand (50-200MW) of the grid area where the wind farm is located, the load change rate (-15MW / h to +15MW / h), the day-ahead load forecast, the real-time load deviation (-10% to +10%), and the exchange power of the neighboring area (-30MW to +30MW). The sampling frequency is 10 minutes / time, which is aligned with other data timestamps.

[0090] The data processing process is as follows: S1. Multi-source data acquisition and time series feature extraction Fan operation data example (partial raw data at 10-minute sampling points): Speed ​​at time point (rpm) Yaw angle (°) Pitch angle (°) Generator torque (kN·m) 2023-06-01 00:00 15.2 85.3 2.5 32.1 2023-06-01 00:10 14.7 87.1 3.1 29.8 Apply the minimum-maximum normalization method for standardization: X_standardized = (X_original - X_minimum) / (X_max - X_minimum), for example: minimum speed = 5.3 rpm; maximum speed = 22.7 rpm; for the speed of 15.2 rpm at the time point 2023-06-01 00:00: X_standardized = (15.2 - 5.3) / (22.7 - 5.3) = 9.9 / 17.4 = 0.569; The standardized data is: Time point Speed ​​Yaw angle Pitch angle Generator torque 2023-06-01 00:00 0.569 0.237 0.125 0.458 2023-06-01 00:10 0.539 0.242 0.155 0.425 ...; obtain standardized fan operation data.

[0091] The other data were processed through similar data cleaning and time alignment to finally construct a multi-source fusion dataset.

[0092] Then, the adaptive multi-scale spectrum analysis method is applied to decompose the time series data into different frequency components. Specifically, X_time series data = X 低频趋势 + X 中频周期 + X 高频波动 ; Among them: X 低频趋势 To reflect the long-term changes in the components; X 中频周期 To reflect the components of daily cycle, hourly cycle, etc.; X 高频波动 To reflect the components of short-term disturbances. Combine the frequency domain decomposition data and the original multi-source fusion data set to extract comprehensive features and finally obtain the time series feature vector set. The feature vector structure is as follows: Wind speed eigenvector at time point Temperature eigenvector Power eigenvector... 2023-06-01 00:00 [0.35,0.12,0.21] [0.42,0.15,0.03] [0.31,0.14,0.22] ... 2023-06-01 00:10 [0.34,0.13,0.22] [0.42,0.15,0.02] [0.30,0.15,0.23] ... ....

[0093] S2. Adversarial Hash Representation Generation and Enhancement According to the adversarial hash generator structure, which includes a feature extractor, an environmental condition encoder, and a hash map layer, the original hash code is initially generated based on the temporal feature vector set and environmental conditions.

[0094] Specifically, the hash generation function H gen (x, c) = P(M(E x (x), E c (c))); where: x is the time series feature vector; c is the environmental condition vector; E x is the feature extraction function; E c is the environmental condition encoding function; M is the feature fusion function; P is the projection mapping function.

[0095] For example, the feature vector calculation for the time point 2023-06-01 00:00 is: Feature extraction: E x ([0.35,0.12,0.21, ...]) = [0.28,0.16,0.32,0.45]; Environment code: E c([0.42,0.15,0.03, ...]) = [0.35,0.22,0.41]; Feature fusion: M([0.28, 0.16, 0.32, 0.45], [0.35, 0.22, 0.41]) = [0.31, 0.19, 0.36, 0.43, 0.38, 0.25]; Hash map: P([0.31,0.19,0.36,0.43,0.38,0.25]) = [0.42,0.38,0.51,0.29]; The type recognition discriminator is introduced for adversarial training, where the adversarial loss function L 对抗 = E x [log(D(h))] +E x ,c[log(1-D(H gen (x,c)))]; where: D is the type discriminator function; h is the hash code; E x represents the expectation about x; E x ,c represents the joint expectation of x and c.

[0096] By minimizing the accuracy of the discriminator, the hash generator produces a type-independent unified representation and obtains a type-neutral hash code. The output of the type discriminator (the probability of discriminating the data type) can be: Original hash code [0.42, 0.38, 0.51, 0.29] -> wind speed type probability: 0.85, temperature type probability: 0.12, others: 0.03; after adversarial training [0.45, 0.32, 0.48, 0.35] -> wind speed type probability: 0.42, temperature type probability: 0.39, others: 0.19; After adversarial training, the type discriminator finds it difficult to distinguish the source of the data, achieving a unified representation that is type-independent.

[0097] Calculate the covariance matrix for the type-neutral hash code and design a diversity regularization term, where the diversity loss value L diversity = -log(det(Σ) + ε); where Σ is the hash code covariance matrix, and the calculation formula is Σ = 1 / n·∑(h i - μ)(h i - μ)^T; μ is the hash code mean vector, and the calculation formula is μ = 1 / n·∑h i ; det(Σ) is the determinant of the matrix Σ; ε is a small constant to prevent numerical instability, set to 10^(-6); h i is the hash code of the ith sample; n is the number of samples. In this embodiment, the hash dimension is 4 and the number of samples is 100: Calculate the mean hash code vector μ = [0.43, 0.36, 0.47, 0.32]; Calculate the covariance matrix Σ = [[0.053, -0.012, 0.008, 0.004], [-0.012, 0.048, 0.003, -0.005], [ 0.008, 0.003,0.061, 0.002], [ 0.004, -0.005, 0.002, 0.057]]; Calculate the determinant det(Σ) = 0.000834; Calculate the diversity loss L diversity = -log(0.000834 + 10^(-6)) = 7.083.

[0098] The diversity loss is incorporated into the optimization objective of the hash generator, and the network parameters are updated through gradient descent to make the hash code distribution more even and avoid the hash collapse problem.

[0099] Comparison of hash distribution before and after optimization (t-SNE dimension reduction visualization result values): Before optimization, aggregation = 0.78, coverage = 0.45. After optimization, aggregation = 0.32, coverage = 0.83.

[0100] Hash codes after diversity enhancement: [0.47, 0.28, 0.52, 0.38], [0.22, 0.45, 0.31,0.54], [0.36, 0.58, 0.19, 0.42], ….

[0101] Analyze feature sensitivity and design adaptive perturbations, where the robustness loss value L_robust = 1 / n·∑||H gen (x+δ, c+ε) - H gen (x, c)|| 2 2 ; Among them: H gen is the hash generation function; x is the time series feature vector; c is the environmental condition vector; δ is the feature disturbance vector, and the calculation formula is δ i = (1 / S i )·r·σ i ; ε is the environmental condition disturbance vector; S i is the characteristic sensitivity, and the calculation formula is S i = dh / dx i ; r is a random factor, uniformly distributed in the range of [-0.1, 0.1]; σ i is the characteristic standard deviation; n is the number of samples; ||·|| 2 Represents the L2 norm (Euclidean distance).

[0102] The calculation process is: Calculate feature sensitivity (partial example): S 风速 = 0.85, S 温度 = 0.42, S 湿度 = 0.31,S 功率 = 0.76; Generate a perturbation vector (assuming r = 0.05 and the standard deviation is known): δ 风速 = (1 / 0.85)·0.05·0.12 =0.007; δ 温度 = (1 / 0.42)·0.05·0.08 = 0.010; δ 湿度 = (1 / 0.31)·0.05·0.06 = 0.010; δ 功率 = (1 / 0.76)·0.05·0.15 = 0.010.

[0103] Original feature vector: [0.35, 0.42, 0.28, 0.31]; perturbed feature vector: [0.357, 0.430, 0.290, 0.320]; Calculate the hash code before and after the perturbation, the original hash code is [0.47, 0.28, 0.52, 0.38]; the perturbed hash code is [0.48, 0.27, 0.53, 0.39]. Calculate the L2 distance: 0.0173; Repeat the above process for all samples and calculate the average L_robust.

[0104] By minimizing L_robust, the hash representation is made more robust to input variations.

[0105] Comparison before and after perturbation immunity training: Before training, the average perturbation sensitivity = 0.082; after training, the average perturbation sensitivity = 0.023 (reduced by 72%); finally, the enhanced hash code set is obtained.

[0106] S3. Physical constraint fusion and relationship graph construction Construct a physical constraint model of the wind power system, including wind speed-power curve constraints, cut-in and cut-out wind speed constraints, etc.

[0107] The hash code h after the constraint constrained = h - η·▽ h V(h); where h is the enhanced hash code; η is the projection step length, and the calculation formula is η = η 0 min(1, V(h) / V threshold );▽ h V(h) is the gradient of the physical violation with respect to h; V(h) is the comprehensive physical violation, calculated as V(h) = w 1 V_power(h) + w 2·V c utoff(h) + w 3 ·V ramp (h,h prev ); V_power(h) is the power curve violation; V c utoff(h) is the cut-in and cut-out violation degree; V ramp (h, h prev ) is the rate of change violation; w 1 、w 2 、w 3 is the weight parameter; η 0 is the basic step size, set to 0.05; V threshold is the threshold parameter, set to 0.8.

[0108] The calculation process example is as follows: Hash code h = [0.47, 0.28, 0.52, 0.38], corresponding violation degree: V_power(h) = 0.45 (power curve violation degree); V c utoff(h) = 0.12 (cut-in and cut-out violation); V ramp (h, h prev ) = 0.28 (rate of change violation); Weight parameter w 1 = 0.5, w 2 = 0.3, w 3 = 0.2; comprehensive physical violation V(h) = 0.5·0.45 +0.3·0.12 + 0.2·0.28 = 0.225 + 0.036 + 0.056 = 0.317; adaptive step size η = 0.05·min(1, 0.317 / 0.8) = 0.05·0.396 = 0.0198; physical violation gradient (calculated by automatic differentiation) ▽ h V(h) =[0.38, -0.15, 0.42, 0.21]; Gradient projection h constrained = [0.47, 0.28, 0.52, 0.38] -0.0198 · ​​[0.38, -0.15, 0.42, 0.21] = [0.462, 0.283, 0.512, 0.376]; Comparison of physical constraint before and after projection: the physical violation degree before projection was 0.317; the physical violation degree after projection was 0.182 (a decrease of 42.6%).

[0109] The distribution calibration method is applied to adjust the hash distribution characteristics, and the calibrated hash code h calibrated = (h - μ h (c)) / σh (c) * σ t arget + μ t arget; where h is the physical constraint hash code; μ h (c) is the mean value of the hash code under the current environmental conditions; σ h (c) is the standard deviation of the hash code under the current environmental conditions; μ t arget is the mean of the target distribution, set to 0; σ t arget is the target distribution standard deviation, set to 1.

[0110] The following is an example of calibration calculation: The hash statistic μ under the current environmental conditions h (c) = [0.45, 0.31, 0.49,0.36], σ h (c) = [0.08, 0.06, 0.09, 0.07]; physical constraint hash code h constrained = [0.462, 0.283, 0.512, 0.376]; calibrated hash code h calibrated = [(0.462-0.45) / 0.08, (0.283-0.31) / 0.06, (0.512-0.49) / 0.09, (0.376-0.36) / 0.07] = [0.15, -0.45, 0.24, 0.23]; Construct the initial relationship graph based on the calibration hash code, and then perform history matching correction.

[0111] History revision hash code h corrected = h calibrated + β·(h history -h calibrated ), where h calibrated is the calibration hash code; h history is the weighted historical hash code, calculated as h history = ∑β i ·h historyi / ∑β i ; β is the similarity weight, calculated as β = s / (s + α); s is the conditional similarity, calculated as s = exp(-d(c, c sim ) / τ); d(c, c sim ) is the conditional distance; τ is the temperature parameter, set to 0.2; α is the equilibrium parameter, set to 0.3; c is the current environmental condition; c sim Similar historical conditions.

[0112] An example of historical matching calculation is as follows: current environmental conditions c = [0.42, 0.15, 0.28, 0.65] (wind speed, temperature, humidity, air pressure); Find similar historical conditions (assuming that 3 most similar conditions are found): c sim1 = [0.40, 0.16, 0.30,0.64], d 1 = 0.033, h history1 = [0.12, -0.48, 0.22, 0.21]; c sim2 = [0.43, 0.18, 0.25,0.67], d 2 = 0.048, h history2 = [0.18, -0.42, 0.26, 0.25]; c sim3 = [0.38, 0.13, 0.32,0.62], d 3 = 0.078, h history3 = [0.09, -0.52, 0.18, 0.19].

[0113] Calculate similarity: s 1 = exp(-0.033 / 0.2) = 0.848, β 1 = 0.848 / (0.848+0.3) = 0.739;s 2 = exp(-0.048 / 0.2) = 0.786, β 2 = 0.786 / (0.786+0.3) = 0.724;s 3 = exp(-0.078 / 0.2)= 0.677, β 3 = 0.677 / (0.677+0.3) = 0.693; Calculate the weighted historical hash code h history = (0.739·[0.12,-0.48,0.22,0.21] + 0.724·[0.18,-0.42,0.26,0.25]+ 0.693·[0.09,-0.52,0.18,0.19]) / (0.739+0.724+0.693); h history = [0.131, -0.471, 0.221, 0.219]; Calculate the overall similarity weight (assuming β = 0.65): History correction h corrected = [0.15,-0.45,0.24,0.23] + 0.65·([0.131,-0.471,0.221,0.219]- [0.15,-0.45,0.24,0.23]) = [0.138,-0.464, 0.228, 0.223]; The relationship graph is updated based on the historical revised hash code to obtain a dynamic fusion relationship graph.

[0114] S4. Graph convolution prediction and output generation Apply graph convolutional neural network to extract features on the dynamic fusion relationship graph: graph convolution feature h' of the i-th node i = σ(∑α ij ·Wh j ), where σ is the activation function, using ReLU; α ij is the attention coefficient, and the calculation formula is α ij =softmax(LeakyReLU(a T [Wh i || Wh j ])); W is the weight matrix; a is the attention vector; h i 、h j is the node hash feature; || represents the concatenation operation.

[0115] An example of graph convolution calculation (partial nodes) is as follows: Node hash feature: h 1 = [0.138, -0.464, 0.228,0.223];h 2 = [0.152, -0.438, 0.245, 0.218];h 3 = [0.125, -0.472, 0.217, 0.232]; ....

[0116] Calculating the attention coefficient (partial example): α 1 2 = 0.28, α 1 3 = 0.16, α 2 1 = 0.31, α 2 3 =0.22, ... Perform graph convolution operation (W is known): h' 1 = ReLU(0.28·W·h 2 + 0.16 W h 3 + ...) =[0.432, 0.156, 0.345, 0.278];h' 2 = ReLU(0.31·W·h 1 + 0.22 W h 3 + ...) =[0.416, 0.182, 0.328, 0.291]; ....

[0117] Through multi-layer graph convolution and time attention mechanism, graph convolution features are generated: Time point t: [0.432, 0.156, 0.345, 0.278, ...]; Time point t-1: [0.428, 0.162, 0.339, 0.285, ...]; Time point t-2: [0.415, 0.171, 0.332, 0.296, ...]; .... Predict the power in the next 24 hours based on graph convolution features.

[0118] Predicted power value P pred = PredictionModel(h_GC); where PredictionModel is the prediction model and h_GC is the graph convolution feature.

[0119] Final output wind power forecast result example (partial period): Time prediction power (MW) Prediction interval lower bound Prediction interval upper bound 2023-06-01 06:00 25.8 24.2 27.4 2023-06-01 06:10 26.2 24.5 27.9 2023-06-01 06:20 26.7 25.0 28.4 ....

[0120] Method performance comparison (compared with three existing methods): Mean prediction error (RMSE): this method 3.2%; comparison method 1 (fixed weight fusion) 5.6%; comparison method 2 (dynamic graph convolution) 4.5%; comparison method 3 (classical time series prediction) 7.8%.

[0121] Forecast error under extreme meteorological conditions: proposed method 7.5%; comparison method 115.2%; comparison method 212.8%; comparison method 318.4%.

[0122] Forecast stability evaluation (average volatility of forecast values ​​at adjacent moments): 4.2% for this method; 11.5% for comparison method 1; 8.3% for comparison method 2; and 13.7% for comparison method 3.

[0123] This example demonstrates that the proposed short-term wind power forecasting method based on dynamic time series fusion of multi-source heterogeneous data is significantly superior to existing methods in terms of forecasting accuracy, stability and adaptability to extreme conditions through technologies such as adversarial hash generation, projection diversity regularization, disturbance immune training, physical constraint gradient projection and history matching correction. In particular, under extreme meteorological conditions, the forecast error is reduced by about 41%, which greatly improves the reliability of wind farm scheduling.

[0124] Embodiment 2: A relationship diagram based on a calibration hash code, the construction process of which includes: Get the calibration hash code set {h calibrated1 , h calibrated2 , ..., h calibrated _n}, design the cosine similarity calculation function sim(h i , h j ) = (h i · h j ) / (||h i || · ||h j ||), where h i represents the calibration hash code of the i-th sample, h j represents the calibration hash code of the jth sample, h i · h j represents the inner product of two hash codes, ||h i || represents the hash code h i The L2 norm of sim(h i , h j ) represents the cosine similarity between two hash codes, and its value range is [-1, 1]. The larger the value, the higher the similarity.

[0125] Calculate the cosine similarity between all sample pairs and construct a similarity matrix S, where S ij = sim(h calibratedi ,h calibratedj ), S ij The element in the i-th row and j-th column of the similarity matrix corresponds to the similarity between the i-th sample and the j-th sample.

[0126] Set the similarity threshold τ sim = 0.75, construct the adjacency matrix A based on the threshold, where A ij = 1 if S ij >τ sim else 0,A ij Represents the element in the i-th row and j-th column of the adjacency matrix. A value of 1 indicates that there is a connection between the two nodes, and a value of 0 indicates that there is no connection between the two nodes. sim Represents the similarity threshold.

[0127] In order to improve the connectivity of the relationship graph, the K nearest neighbor strategy is introduced, and K is set to 5. For each node i, the K nodes with the highest similarity {j 1 , j 2 , ..., j k}, set the corresponding adjacency matrix element to 1: A i,jk= 1, k ∈ {1,2, ..., K}, K represents the minimum number of connections for each node.

[0128] Use the similarity value as the edge weight to construct a weighted adjacency matrix W, where W ij = S ij if A ij = 1 else0,W ij Represents the element in the i-th row and j-th column of the weighted adjacency matrix.

[0129] Construct the initial relationship graph G based on the weighted adjacency matrix W and the node feature matrix X (composed of calibrated hash codes) i nit= (V, E, W, X), where V represents the node set, containing n data points, E represents the edge set, determined by the adjacency matrix A, W represents the edge weight matrix, and X represents the node feature matrix.

[0130] In this embodiment, the calculation process is as follows: Assume there are three sample calibration hash codes: h calibrated1 = [0.15, -0.45, 0.24, 0.23]; h calibrated2 = [0.12, -0.48, 0.22, 0.21];h calibrated3 = [0.18, -0.42, 0.26, 0.25]; Calculate cosine similarity: sim(h 1 , h 2 ) = (0.15×0.12 + (-0.45)×(-0.48) + 0.24×0.22 + 0.23×0.21) / (√(0.15² + (-0.45)² + 0.24² + 0.23²) × √(0.12² + (-0.48)² + 0.22² + 0.21²)) = (0.018 + 0.216 + 0.0528 + 0.0483) / (0.5830 ×0.5796) = 0.3351 / 0.3379 = 0.9916; sim(h 1 , h 3) = (0.15×0.18 + (-0.45)×(-0.42) + 0.24×0.26 + 0.23×0.25) / (√(0.15² + (-0.45)² + 0.24² + 0.23²) ×√(0.18² + (-0.42)² + 0.26² + 0.25²)) = (0.027 + 0.189 + 0.0624 + 0.0575) / (0.5830 × 0.5798) = 0.3359 / 0.3380 = 0.9938; sim(h 2 , h 3 ) = (0.12×0.18 + (-0.48)×(-0.42) + 0.22×0.26 + 0.21×0.25) / (√(0.12² + (-0.48)² + 0.22² +0.21²) × √(0.18² + (-0.42)² + 0.26² + 0.25²)) = (0.0216 + 0.2016 + 0.0572 +0.0525) / (0.5796 × 0.5798) = 0.3329 / 0.3361 = 0.9905.

[0131] Construct similarity matrix S = [[1.0000, 0.9916, 0.9938], [0.9916, 1.0000,0.9905], [0.9938, 0.9905, 1.0000]]; apply threshold τ sim = 0.75Construct the adjacency matrix A = [[1, 1,1], [1, 1, 1], [1, 1, 1]]; construct the weighted adjacency matrix W = [[1.0000, 0.9916, 0.9938],[0.9916, 1.0000, 0.9905], [0.9938, 0.9905, 1.0000]].

[0132] Embodiment 3, graph convolutional neural network GCN, specifically: Receive the dynamic fusion relationship graph G = (V, E, W, X), design a graph convolutional neural network with L = 3 layers, and input node feature dimension d i n = 4 (hash code dimension), hidden layer dimension d hidden = 64, output feature dimension d_out = 32, where V represents the node set, E represents the edge set, W represents the edge weight matrix, and X represents the node feature matrix.

[0133] Construct the first graph convolution layer and input feature dimension di n = 4, output feature dimension d hidden = 64, weight matrix W^(1) ∈ R^(d i n×d hidden ) Initialized to Xavier method: W^(1) ij ~ U(-√(6 / (d i n+d hidden )), √(6 / (d i n+d hidden ))), where W^(1) represents the weight matrix of the first graph convolutional layer, W^(1) ij represents the i-th row and j-th column element of the weight matrix, U represents uniform distribution, and d i n represents the input feature dimension, d hidden Represents the hidden layer feature dimension.

[0134] Design a multi-head graph attention mechanism with H = 8 heads and the output dimension of each attention head d head = d hidden / H = 8, attention vector a^(h) ∈ R^(2×d head ) is initialized to a uniform distribution U(-0.1, 0.1), h ∈ {1, 2, ..., H}, where H represents the number of attention heads, d head represents the output dimension of each attention head, and a^(h) represents the attention vector of the h-th attention head.

[0135] For each attention head h, calculate the attention coefficient α^(h) ij = softmax j (LeakyReLU(a^(h)^T ·[W^(h) · h i || W^(h) · h j ])), where α^(h) ij represents the attention coefficient of node i to node j in the hth attention head, softmax j represents the softmax operation on index j, LeakyReLU represents the leaky ReLU activation function, whose negative semi-axis slope is 0.2, a^(h) represents the attention vector of the h-th attention head, W^(h) represents the weight matrix of the h-th attention head, and h i and h j represents the feature vector of nodes i and j, and || represents the concatenation operation.

[0136] Aggregate neighbor information based on attention coefficient: h' (h) i = σ(∑ j ∈N(i) α^(h)ij · W^(h) · h j ), where h' (h) i represents the feature of node i output by the h-th attention head, σ represents the activation function, and ELU(x) = x if x>0else α·(e x - 1), α = 1.0, N(i) represents the neighbor set of node i.

[0137] Concatenate the outputs of all attention heads: h' i = Concat(h'^(1) i , h'^(2) i , ..., h'^(H) i )∈ R^d hidden , and apply batch normalization: h' i _norm = BatchNorm(h' i ), where h' i Represents the concatenation result of multi-head attention, Concat represents the concatenation operation, BatchNorm represents the batch normalization operation, and its moving average decay rate is 0.9, ε =10^(-5).

[0138] Add residual connection and first layer output: h^(1) i = h' i _norm + MLP(h i ), where MLP stands for multi-layer perceptron, contains one hidden layer, and has a linear (d i n, d hidden / 2) ->ReLU ->Linear(d hidden / 2,d hidden ), h^(1) i Represents the features of node i after the first layer of graph convolution.

[0139] Similarly, the second and third graph convolution layers are constructed with an input dimension of d hidden = 64, the output dimensions are d hidden = 64 and d_out = 32, and apply batch normalization and residual connections after each layer to get the final node representation h^(3) i ∈ R^(d_out), which is the final graph convolution feature.

[0140] The calculation process is as follows: Assuming there is a node feature h 1 = [0.138, -0.464, 0.228, 0.223], some neighbor nodes h 2= [0.152, -0.438, 0.245, 0.218] and h 3 = [0.125, -0.472, 0.217, 0.232].

[0141] For attention head h=1, assume that some values ​​of the weight matrix W^(1) are: W^(1) = [[0.12, 0.08, -0.15, 0.09, 0.11, -0.07, 0.10, 0.14], [-0.13,0.11, 0.09, -0.12, 0.08, 0.15, -0.10, 0.07], [0.14, -0.09, 0.13, 0.08, -0.11,0.12, 0.07, -0.10], [0.10, 0.13, 0.08, -0.14, 0.09, 0.11, -0.08, 0.12]] Compute feature transformation: W (1) · h 1 = [0.12×0.138 + (-0.13)×(-0.464) + 0.14×0.228+ 0.10×0.223, ...] = [0.1657, 0.0970, -0.0177, 0.0615, 0.1110, 0.0980,0.0726, 0.1196]; W^(1) · h 2 = [...] = [0.1676, 0.0897, -0.0250, 0.0595,0.1134, 0.0956, 0.0703, 0.1157]; W^(1) · h 3 = [...] = [0.1632, 0.1019, -0.0110, 0.0630, 0.1092, 0.0996, 0.0743, 0.1223]; Assume that the partial value of the attention vector a^(1) is: a (1) = [0.06, -0.08, 0.05, -0.07, 0.09, -0.05, 0.08, -0.06, 0.07, -0.09, 0.04, -0.08, 0.05, -0.07, 0.09, -0.05]; Calculate the attention coefficient (partial): e 1 2 = LeakyReLU(a^(1)^T · [W^(1) · h 1 || W^(1)· h 2]) = 0.0412; e 1 3 = LeakyReLU(a^(1)^T · [W^(1) · h 1 || W^(1) · h 3 ]) =0.0386; α 1 2 = exp(0.0412) / (exp(0.0412) + exp(0.0386)) = 0.5065; α 1 3 = exp(0.0386) / (exp(0.0412) + exp(0.0386)) = 0.4935; Aggregate neighbor information (partial, first dimension only): h'^(1) 1 [0] = ELU(0.5065 × 0.1676 +0.4935 × 0.1632) = ELU(0.0849 + 0.0805) = ELU(0.1654) = 0.1654; Assume that the value after batch normalization is h' 1 _norm = [0.5342, 0.2897, -0.0523, 0.1974,0.3568, 0.3156, 0.2336, 0.3852, ...]; Assume that MLP(h 1 ) = [0.2534, 0.1356, -0.0789, 0.1258, 0.1789, 0.1523,0.1125, 0.1856, ...]; Calculate the first layer output: h^(1) 1 = [0.5342 + 0.2534, 0.2897 + 0.1356, -0.0523 +(-0.0789), 0.1974 + 0.1258, ...] = [0.7876, 0.4253, -0.1312, 0.3232, ...].

[0142] Embodiment 4: Power prediction post-processing and confidence interval estimation refinement may also be: The time series prediction layer is constructed based on the graph convolution feature h^(3), using a three-layer fully connected network structure: FC 1 : Linear(d_out, 128) ->ReLU ->Dropout(0.2), FC 2 : Linear(128, 64) ->ReLU ->Dropout(0.2), FC 3: Linear(64, T pred ), where T pred = 24 indicates the prediction time domain (hours), Dropout indicates the random inactivation operation with a dropout rate of 0.2, and d_out indicates the feature dimension of the graph convolution output.

[0143] The input graph convolution features pass through the time series prediction layer to generate the original power prediction value sequence P_raw = [p 1 , p 2 ,..., p tpred ], where p t represents the power prediction value (normalized value) at the t-th prediction time, with a value range of [0, 1], T pred Represents the prediction time domain.

[0144] Combined with the wind farm parameters, the actual power value P_actual = P_raw × P is obtained by denormalization. max , where P max It represents the maximum installed capacity of the wind farm, which is set to 100MW. P_actual represents the actual power forecast value sequence, in MW.

[0145] Apply physical constraint correction and use the wind speed-power curve model to constrain the power prediction value: P correctedt =min(max(P_actual t , P min (WS t )), P max (WS t )), where P correctedt represents the corrected power prediction value at time t, P min (WS t ) and P max (WS t ) represent the given wind speed WS t The minimum and maximum possible power under the condition is determined by the fan characteristic curve, P_actual t It represents the power prediction value at the tth moment after denormalization.

[0146] Consider the power change rate constraint: P correctedt = min(max(P correctedt , P corrected _(t-1) - R max ×Δt), P corrected _(t-1) + R max ×Δt), where R max represents the maximum allowable power change rate, which is set to 10MW / hour, Δt represents the time interval, in hours, Pcorrected _(t-1) represents the corrected power value at the previous moment.

[0147] The Monte Carlo Dropout method is used to estimate the prediction uncertainty. The Dropout activation is kept during the test phase. M = 100 forward propagations are performed to obtain the power prediction set {P^(1) corrected , P^(2) corrected , ..., P^(M) corrected}, where P^(m) corrected represents the corrected power prediction sequence obtained by the mth Monte Carlo sampling.

[0148] Calculate the mean of the Monte Carlo samples as the final prediction value: P_final = (1 / M)×∑_(m=1)^MP^(m) corrected , where P_final represents the final power prediction sequence.

[0149] Calculate the 95% confidence interval: Sort the M predicted values ​​at each time t {P^(1) correctedt , P^(2) correctedt ,..., P^(M) correctedt}, take the 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile as the lower bound P_lower t and upper bound P_upper t , forming the confidence interval [P_lower t , P_upper t ], where P_lower t Represents the lower bound of the confidence interval, P_upper t Represents the upper bound of the confidence interval.

[0150] Output the final prediction results, including the prediction value sequence P_final and the corresponding confidence interval [P_lower, P_upper].

[0151] The calculation process is as follows: Assume that the graph convolution feature h^(3) passes through the time series prediction layer to obtain the original power prediction value (partial time): P_raw = [0.258, 0.262, 0.267, 0.275, ...]; After denormalization, we get the actual power value P_actual = [0.258 × 100, 0.262 × 100, 0.267 × 100, 0.275 × 100, ...] = [25.8, 26.2, 26.7, 27.5, ...]MW.

[0152] Assuming the wind speed at the corresponding time is [8.3, 8.5, 8.7, 9.0, ...] m / s, query the fan characteristic curve to obtain the power constraint: P min (8.3) = 15.6 MW, P max (8.3) = 30.2 MW; P min (8.5) = 16.2 MW, P max (8.5) = 31.5 MW; P min (8.7) = 16.8 MW, P max (8.7) = 32.8 MW; P min (9.0) = 17.5 MW,P max (9.0) = 35.0 MW; Apply physical constraint correction: P corrected1 = min(max(25.8, 15.6), 30.2) = 25.8 MW; P corrected2 = min(max(26.2, 16.2), 31.5) = 26.2 MW; P corrected3 = min(max(26.7, 16.8),32.8) = 26.7 MW; P corrected _4 = min(max(27.5, 17.5), 35.0) = 27.5 MW.

[0153] Apply a power change rate constraint (Δt = 1 / 6 hour): P corrected1 = 25.8 MW (initial value unchanged); P corrected2 = min(max(26.2, 25.8 - 10 × 1 / 6), 25.8 + 10 × 1 / 6) = min(max(26.2,24.1), 27.5) = 26.2 MW; P corrected3 = min(max(26.7, 26.2 - 10 × 1 / 6), 26.2 + 10× 1 / 6) = min(max(26.7, 24.5), 27.9) = 26.7 MW; P corrected _4 = min(max(27.5, 26.7- 10 × 1 / 6), 26.7 + 10 × 1 / 6) = min(max(27.5, 25.0), 28.4) = 27.5 MW.

[0154] Perform 100 Monte Carlo samplings (partial result example, first moment): P^(1) corrected1= 25.2 MW,P^(2) corrected1 = 26.1 MW, ..., P^(100) corrected1 = 25.5 MW; Calculate the final prediction value (first moment): P_final 1 = (25.2 + 26.1 + ... + 25.5) / 100= 25.8 MW; Calculate the 95% confidence interval (first moment): Sort 100 sample values ​​and take the 2.5th percentile value P_lower 1 =24.2 MW, 97.5th percentile value P_upper 1 = 27.4 MW; confidence interval [24.2, 27.4] MW.

[0155] Embodiment 5: Adaptive diversity regularization strength adjustment may also be: Receive hash distribution evaluation report, including the distribution uniformity index U of the hash code set h ash and coverage metric C h ash, where U h ash = 1 - (∑ i ∑ j exp(-||h i -h j ||² / σ²)) / (n(n-1)), the larger the value, the more uniform the distribution. h ash = (1 / n)×∑ i min j ≠i ||h i -h j ||, the larger the value, the wider the coverage. i and h j represents the hash code, σ is the kernel width parameter, set to 0.5, and n is the number of samples.

[0156] Set the target uniformity index U t arget = 0.8 and target coverage metric C t arget = 0.5, calculate the current uniformity gap ΔU = U t arget-U h ash and coverage gap ΔC = C t arget-C h ash, where U t arget represents the target uniformity index, C t arget represents the target coverage index, ΔU represents the uniformity gap, and ΔC represents the coverage gap.

[0157] Design an adaptive regularization strength adjustment function f(λ, ΔU, ΔC) = λ × (1 + α_U×ΔU + α c ×ΔC), where λ represents the current regularization strength, the initial value is set to 0.1, α_U and α c is the adjustment coefficient, all set to 2.0, and f represents the adaptive adjustment function.

[0158] Set the upper and lower limits of regularization strength: λ_new = max(min(f(λ, ΔU, ΔC), λ max ), λ min ), where λ max = 1.0 means maximum regularization strength, λ min = 0.01 indicates the minimum regularization strength, and λ_new indicates the adjusted regularization strength.

[0159] Apply the adjusted regularization strength λ_new to the diversity loss calculation for the next round of training: L diversity = λ_new × (-log(det(Σ) + ε)), where L diversity represents the diversity loss value, Σ represents the hash code covariance matrix, det(Σ) represents the determinant of the matrix Σ, and ε represents a small constant to prevent numerical instability, which is set to 10^(-6).

[0160] During training, the hash distribution is evaluated every T_adjust = 50 batches and the regularization strength is adjusted until the distribution indicators meet the conditions: |ΔU|<ε_U and |ΔC|<ε c , where ε_U = 0.05 represents the uniformity tolerance, ε c =0.05 represents the coverage tolerance, and T_adjust represents the adjustment period.

[0161] Calculation process example: Assume that the current hash distribution evaluation index is: U h ash = 0.65 (uniformity index); C h ash = 0.35 (coverage indicator); Calculate the indicator gap: ΔU = 0.8 - 0.65 = 0.15; ΔC = 0.5 - 0.35 = 0.15; Assuming the current regularization strength λ = 0.1, calculate the adjusted strength: f(0.1, 0.15, 0.15) = 0.1× (1 + 2.0 × 0.15 + 2.0 × 0.15) = 0.1 × (1 + 0.3 + 0.3) = 0.1 × 1.6 =0.16; λ_new = max(min(0.16, 1.0), 0.01) = 0.16; Use λ_new = 0.16 to calculate the diversity loss in the next round of training.

[0162] After 50 batches, the distribution index is evaluated again and adjusted. Assume the new index: U h ash = 0.72; C h ash =0.42; Calculate the new indicator gap: ΔU = 0.8 - 0.72 = 0.08; ΔC = 0.5 - 0.42 = 0.08; Calculate the new adjustment strength: f(0.16, 0.08, 0.08) = 0.16 × (1 + 2.0 × 0.08 + 2.0× 0.08) = 0.16 × (1 + 0.16 + 0.16) = 0.16 × 1.32 = 0.2112; λ_new = max(min(0.2112, 1.0), 0.01) = 0.2112.

[0163] Example 6, S248-S249. The adversarial disturbance training process may also be: Initialize the maximum number of iterations I max = 10, step length η adv = 0.01, perturbation size constraint ε max = 0.1, where I max represents the maximum number of iterations, η adv represents the adversarial optimization step length, ε max Indicates the maximum permissible disturbance size.

[0164] For each sample (x, c), where x is the time series feature vector and c is the environmental condition, initialize the perturbation vector δ 0 = 0 and the environmental condition disturbance vector ε 0 = 0, the perturbation vector has the same dimension as the original eigenvector, δ 0 represents the initial perturbation vector, ε 0 represents the initial environmental condition disturbance vector.

[0165] Calculate the original hash code h = H gen (x, c), where H genrepresents the hash generation function, and h represents the original hash code.

[0166] Adversarial perturbation iterative optimization: For iteration step i from 1 to I max , perform the following steps: a) Calculate the perturbed hash code h'i = H gen (x + δ(i-1), c + ε_(i-1)), where h' i represents the perturbed hash code of the i-th iteration; b) calculate the perturbation loss L dist = ||h' i - h||2^2, represents the L2 distance square of the hash code before and after the perturbation, L dist represents the perturbation loss; c) Calculate the gradient of the loss with respect to the input: ▽_δL dist = dL dist / dδ,▽_εL dist = dL dist / dε, obtained by automatic differentiation, ▽_δL dist represents the gradient of loss with respect to feature perturbation, ▽_εL dist represents the gradient of the loss to the environmental condition disturbance; d) Update the disturbance vector: δ i = δ(i-1) + η adv · ▽_δL dist / ||▽_δL dist ||2,ε i = ε(i-1) + η adv · ▽_εL dist / ||▽_εL dist || 2 , where ||·||2 represents the L2 norm; e) Apply the perturbation size constraint: δ i = clip(δ i , -ε max , ε max ), ε i = clip(ε i , -ε max , ε max ), where clip represents the clipping function, which limits the value to a specified range; f) If the convergence condition is met: ||δ i - δ(i-1)||2<ε c onv and ||ε i - ε(i-1)|| 2 <ε c onv, the iteration is terminated early, where ε c onv = 10^(-4) represents the convergence threshold.

[0167] Get the final adversarial perturbation vector δ adv = δ i and ε adv = ε i , where I is the actual number of iterations, δ adv represents the final feature adversarial perturbation vector, ε adv represents the final environmental condition adversarial perturbation vector.

[0168] Calculate the adversarial example (x + δ adv , c + ε adv ) corresponds to the hash code h adv = H gen (x + δ adv , c +ε adv ), where h adv Represents the hash code of the adversarial example.

[0169] Constructing adversarial perturbation training loss: L adv = (1 / n)∑||H gen (x j + δ adv j , c j + ε adv j ) - H gen (x j ,c j )|| 2 ^2, where n is the batch size, x j and c j represents the feature vector and environmental conditions of the jth sample, δ adv j and ε adv j represents the adversarial perturbation vector of the jth sample, L adv represents the adversarial training loss.

[0170] Combining the original training loss and the adversarial training loss: L total = L_original + λ adv · L adv +λ diversity · L diversity , where L_original represents the original training loss, including adversarial generation loss, etc., and λ adv represents the adversarial training weight, set to 0.5, λ diversity represents the diversity regularization weight, L total Represents the total loss.

[0171] The total loss is gradient descent using the Adam optimizer with a learning rate of lr = 0.001, β 1 = 0.9, β 2= 0.999, ε = 10^(-8), where lr represents the learning rate, β 1 and β 2 is the momentum parameter and ε is a numerical stability constant.

[0172] Implementation example: Assume that the sample feature vector x = [0.35, 0.12, 0.21, 0.42], the environmental condition c = [0.42, 0.15, 0.28, 0.65], and the initial perturbation δ 0 = [0, 0, 0, 0], ε 0 = [0, 0, 0, 0]; Calculate the original hash code h = H gen (x, c) = [0.47, 0.28, 0.52, 0.38]; First iteration: Calculate the perturbed hash code h' 1 = H gen (x + δ 0 , c + ε 0 ) = H gen (x, c) =[0.47, 0.28, 0.52, 0.38]; calculate the perturbation loss L dist = ||[0.47, 0.28, 0.52, 0.38] -[0.47, 0.28, 0.52, 0.38]|| 2 ^2 = 0; because the initial perturbation is 0, the hash code before and after the perturbation is the same, and the loss is 0; assuming that the gradient calculated by automatic differentiation is ▽_δL dist = [0.01, -0.02, 0.015, 0.008], ▽_εL dist = [0.005, -0.01, 0.012, 0.003]; Normalized gradient ▽_δL dist / ||▽_δL dist || 2 = [0.4, -0.8,0.6, 0.32], ▽_εL dist / ||▽_εL dist || 2 = [0.38, -0.77, 0.92, 0.23]; Update the perturbation vector δ 1 = [0, 0, 0, 0] + 0.01 × [0.4, -0.8, 0.6, 0.32]=[0.004, -0.008, 0.006, 0.0032]; ε 1= [0, 0, 0, 0] + 0.01 × [0.38, -0.77, 0.92,0.23] = [0.0038, -0.0077, 0.0092, 0.0023]; Apply clipping δ 1 = [0.004, -0.008, 0.006, 0.0032], ε 1 = [0.0038, -0.0077, 0.0092, 0.0023] (all within ±0.1).

[0173] Continue iterating until the convergence condition is met or the maximum number of iterations is reached. Assume that we finally get: adv = [0.038,-0.062, 0.045, 0.027];ε adv = [0.031, -0.058, 0.067, 0.019]; Calculate the adversarial sample hash code: h adv = H gen (x + δ adv , c + ε adv ) = H gen ([0.388, 0.058, 0.255, 0.447], [0.451, 0.092, 0.347, 0.669]) = [0.52, 0.24, 0.57, 0.41]; Calculate the adversarial training loss (assuming batch size n=1): L adv = ||[0.52, 0.24, 0.57, 0.41] -[0.47, 0.28, 0.52, 0.38]|| 2 ^2 = (0.52-0.47)² + (0.24-0.28)² + (0.57-0.52)² +(0.41-0.38)² = 0.0025 + 0.0016 + 0.0025 + 0.0009 = 0.0075; Assume L_original = 0.12, L diversity = 7.083, calculate the total loss: L total = 0.12 + 0.5 × 0.0075 + 0.16 × 7.083 = 0.12 + 0.00375 + 1.13328 = 1.25703.

[0174] According to one aspect of the present application, S3. The environmental condition encoding function is specifically: Receiving environment condition vector c = [c 1 , c 2 , ..., c_d c ], including time factors, meteorological factors and system status, where d c represents the environmental condition dimension, c i represents the i-th environmental condition feature, and c represents the environmental condition vector.

[0175] Environmental conditions are divided into three categories: a) Continuous characteristics c c ont = [c 1 , c 2 , ..., c k ], such as wind speed, temperature, air pressure, etc.; b) Periodic characteristics c cyclic = [c k+1 , c k+2 , ..., c m ], such as hour, date, wind direction, etc.; c) Discrete feature c discrete = [c m+1 , c m+2 , ..., c dc ], such as scheduling strategy, unit status, etc. Among them, c cont represents a continuous feature subvector, c cyclic represents the periodic eigenvector, c discrete represents a discrete feature subvector, k represents the number of continuous features, and m represents the total number of continuous features and periodic features.

[0176] Apply normalization to continuous features: c c ont_norm = (c c ont - μ c ont) / σ c ont, where μ cont and σ cont They represent the mean vector and standard deviation vector of continuous features, respectively, obtained through historical data statistics, c cont_norm Represents the normalized continuous feature.

[0177] Apply sine-cosine transform to periodic features: For feature c j ∈c cyclic , calculate c j_sin = sin(2π ×c j / T j ) and c jcos = cos(2π × c j / T j ), where T j Represents feature c jThe cycle, such as hour T = 24, date T = 365, wind direction T = 360, c j_sin Represents feature c j The sine transform of jcos Represents feature c j The cosine transform of .

[0178] Concatenate the sine and cosine transform results of all periodic features to obtain the periodic feature code c cyclic_enc = [c k+ 1 sin, c k+1 cos, c k+2 sin, c (k+2) cos , ..., c m_sin , c mcos ], where c cyclic_enc The encoding result representing the periodic feature.

[0179] Apply one-hot encoding to discrete features: For feature c j ∈c_ discrete , if c j There are j possible values, then convert to n j dimensional one-hot vector c j _onehot, where c j _onehot represents feature c j One-hot encoding.

[0180] Concatenate the one-hot encoding results of all discrete features to obtain the discrete feature encoding c_discrete_enc = [c_(m+1) onehot, c (m+2)_onehot, ..., c_d c _onehot], where c_discrete_enc represents the encoding result of discrete features.

[0181] Design an environmental conditional encoding network with two hidden layers: MLP cont : Linear(d c ont_norm, 32) ->ReLU ->Linear(32, 16) is used to encode continuous features, MLP cyclic : Linear(d cyclic_enc, 24) ->ReLU->Linear(24, 12) is used to encode periodic features, MLP_discrete: Linear(d_discrete_enc, 20) ->ReLU ->Linear(20, 10) is used to encode discrete features, where d cont_norm represents the normalized continuous feature dimension, d cyclic_enc It represents the periodic feature encoding dimension, and d_discrete_enc represents the discrete feature encoding dimension.

[0182] Encode three types of features respectively: h cont =MLP c ont(c c ont_norm), h cyclic =MLP cyclic (c cyclic _enc), h_discrete = MLP_discrete(c_discrete_enc), where h cont Represents the encoding result of continuous features, h cyclic It represents the encoding result of periodic features, and h_discrete represents the encoding result of discrete features.

[0183] S310. Concatenate the three encoding results and pass through the final fusion layer: E c (c) = MLP_fusion(Concat(h c ont, h c yclic, h_discrete)), where MLP_fusion: Linear(38, 24) ->ReLU ->Linear(24, d c _enc),d c _enc = 16 is the final environmental condition encoding dimension, E c Represents the environmental condition encoding function, and Concat represents the concatenation operation.

[0184] The calculation process is as follows: Assume that the environmental condition vector c = [0.42, 0.15, 0.28, 0.65, 13,180, 2], where the first 4 are continuous features (wind speed, temperature, humidity, air pressure), the 5th is a periodic feature (hours), the 6th is a periodic feature (wind direction), and the 7th is a discrete feature (scheduling strategy, with 3 possible values).

[0185] By type: c cont = [0.42, 0.15, 0.28, 0.65]; c cyclic = [13, 180]; c_discrete = [2]; Normalized continuous features (assuming statistical mean and standard deviation): μ cont = [0.38, 0.20, 0.30,0.60], σ cont = [0.08, 0.05, 0.06, 0.07]; c cont_norm = ([0.42, 0.15, 0.28, 0.65] -[0.38, 0.20, 0.30, 0.60]) / [0.08, 0.05, 0.06, 0.07] = [0.5, -1.0, -0.33,0.71]; Periodic feature transformation: For hourly features (T=24): c_5_sin = sin(2π × 13 / 24) = sin(3.40) = -0.22, c_5 c os = cos(2π × 13 / 24) = cos(3.40) = -0.98; For wind direction characteristics (T=360): c_6_sin = sin(2π × 180 / 360) = sin(π) = 0, c_6 cos = cos(2π × 180 / 360) =cos(π) = -1; c cyclic_enc = [-0.22, -0.98, 0, -1]; Discrete feature one-hot encoding: c_7_onehot = [0, 0, 1] (the third scheduling strategy); c_discrete_enc = [0, 0, 1]; Encode various features (assuming the network parameters have been trained): h c ont = MLP c ont([0.5, -1.0, -0.33, 0.71]) = [0.35, 0.22, 0.41, ..., 0.28] (16-dimensional vector); h c yclic = MLP c yclic([-0.22, -0.98, 0, -1]) = [0.15, 0.08, 0.25, ..., 0.12] (12-dimensional vector); h_discrete =MLP_discrete([0, 0, 1]) = [0.31, 0.18, 0.22, ..., 0.15] (10-dimensional vector).

[0186] Concatenate and pass through the fusion layer: Concat(h cont , h cyclic , h_discrete) = [0.35, 0.22, ...,0.15] (38-dimensional vector); E c (c) = MLP_fusion([0.35, 0.22, ..., 0.15]) = [0.42, 0.38,0.45, ..., 0.31] (16-dimensional vector).

[0187] According to one aspect of the present application, the hash parameter generation process can also be briefly described as: Generate initial hash code: h = H gen (x, T(c)); Apply projection diversity regularization, including: computing the covariance matrix of the set of hash codes Σ = Cov({h i}); Calculate the diversity loss L diversity = -log(det(Σ)); Perform perturbation immune training, including: generating perturbation data x' = x + δ, c' = c + ε; calculating perturbation hash code h' = H gen (x', T(c')); Calculate the robustness loss L_robust = ||h' - h||^2; Apply distribution calibration, including: Calculate the hash statistic μ under the current conditions h (c), σ h (c); Perform calibration h calibrated = (h - μ h (c)) / σ h (c) * σ t arget + μ t arget.

[0188] Apply energy constraints, including: Calculate the energy E(h calibrated ) = EnergyFunction(h calibrated ).

[0189] Build a graph G' = BuildGraph(X, {h constrained}).

[0190] Perform graph convolution to predict P pred = GraphConvPredictor(G', X).

[0191] Update the hash generator parameters, taking into account prediction error, diversity and robustness Ltotal = L pred + λ 1 *L diversity + λ 2 * L_robust. Update parameters: θ = Optimizer(θ, ▽_θ L total ).

[0192] The preferred embodiments of the present invention are described in detail above; however, the present invention is not limited to the specific details in the above embodiments. Within the technical concept of the present invention, various equivalent transformations can be made to the technical solutions of the present invention, and these equivalent transformations all belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A short-term wind power forecasting method based on dynamic time series fusion of multi-source heterogeneous data, characterized in that: include: Read and preprocess multi-source data, extract time series features from them, and generate a time series feature vector set; Based on the time series feature vector set and preset environmental conditions, an adversarial hash generator is used to construct a unified feature representation space, and projection diversity regularization and perturbation immunity training are performed to generate an enhanced hash code set. The physical laws and data distribution characteristics of the wind power system are integrated into the enhanced hash code, and constraint projection and distribution calibration are performed. A heterogeneous relationship graph is constructed based on the processed hash code, and historical similar condition data is used for correction to generate a dynamic fusion relationship graph. GCN is applied on the dynamic fusion relationship graph to perform short-term wind power forecasting and obtain the wind power forecast value.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The steps to generate an enhanced hash code set include: Input the temporal feature vector set and environmental conditions into the adversarial hash generator, and generate a type-neutral hash code through the type recognition discriminator and adversarial training; The covariance matrix of the type-neutral hash code is calculated, and projection diversity regularization is applied to make the hash code distribution uniform and generate diversity-enhanced hash codes; Perturbation immune training is applied to the diversity enhanced hash codes, and the difference between the hash codes before and after perturbation is minimized to generate an enhanced hash code set.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The steps to generate a type-neutral hash code are: Applying a feature extraction function to the time series feature vector set to generate a feature extraction result; Applying an environmental condition encoding function to the environmental condition to generate an environmental condition encoding result; The feature extraction results and the environmental condition encoding results are fused to generate feature fusion results and pass through the hash mapping layer to generate the original hash code; Based on the original hash code, the hash representations of different data types are distinguished through the type recognition discriminator, the discriminator output is generated and the discriminator accuracy is minimized, so that the hash generator is prompted to produce a type-independent unified representation and generate a type-neutral hash code.

4. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The steps to generate a diversity-enhanced hash code include: Perform distribution statistics analysis on the type-neutral hash code set, calculate the hash code mean vector, and generate hash distribution statistics; Based on the hash distribution statistics, the covariance matrix of the hash code set is calculated to generate a hash covariance matrix; Calculate the eigenvalues ​​of the hash covariance matrix, design the diversity loss function based on it, and calculate the diversity loss value; The diversity loss value is back-propagated to the hash generator network, the gradient is calculated and the network parameters are updated to generate diversity-enhanced hash codes.

5. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The steps to generate an enhanced hash code set include: Analyze the time series feature vector set corresponding to the diversity enhanced hash code, calculate the sensitivity index of each dimensional feature, and generate a feature sensitivity matrix; based on this, adopt an adaptive perturbation generation strategy to generate perturbations for high and low sensitivity dimensions respectively, and obtain an adaptive perturbation vector and an environmental condition perturbation vector; Add the adaptive perturbation vector to the time series feature vector set, add the environmental condition perturbation vector to the environmental condition, generate the perturbation feature vector set and the perturbation environmental condition respectively, and generate the perturbation hash code accordingly, and calculate the perturbation distance between the perturbation code and the original hash code; Through the robustness loss function, the difference between the hash codes before and after the perturbation is minimized to generate an enhanced hash code set.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The steps of generating a dynamic fusion relationship diagram include: Apply physical constraint gradient projection to the enhanced hash code set, adjust the hash code to meet the physical constraint, generate the physical constraint hash code and analyze its distribution characteristics under the current environmental conditions, perform distribution calibration, and obtain the calibrated hash code and the initial relationship diagram; Retrieve the historical conditions most similar to the current environmental conditions and their corresponding hash representations from the historical database, perform historical information correction on the calibration hash code, and generate a historical correction hash code; The node representation and edge weights of the relationship graph are updated based on the historical revised hash code to generate a dynamic fusion relationship graph.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that The steps to generate a physical constraint hash code include: Based on the physical constraint rule library, a comprehensive physical constraint function is constructed, including the wind speed-power curve constraint function, the cut-in and cut-out wind speed constraint function, and the power change rate constraint function. The weights of each constraint are dynamically adjusted to generate a comprehensive physical violation degree. Calculate the gradient of the comprehensive physical violation degree with respect to the hash code to generate a physical violation gradient; Design an adaptive step-size control strategy based on the physical violation degree to generate an adaptive projection step-size; The gradient projection formula is applied and combined with the projection step size to adjust the hash code in the direction that satisfies the physical constraints and generate a physical constraint hash code.

8. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that Corrections using historical similar conditions data include: According to the environmental conditions, the environmental condition feature vector is constructed, including time factors, meteorological factors and system status; Based on the weighted environmental condition distance measurement function and the historical condition index structure, multiple historical conditions that are most similar to the current environmental condition are queried to obtain a set of similar historical conditions; Calculate the similarity between each condition in the similar historical condition set and the current condition, and normalize them to obtain a similarity weight vector; Retrieve the historical hash code corresponding to the similar historical condition set, and calculate the weighted historical hash code according to the similarity weight vector; The weighted historical hash code is adjusted toward the historical experience by applying the historical matching correction formula, and the node representation and edge weight of the updated relationship graph based on the historical corrected hash code are obtained to generate a dynamic fusion relationship graph.

9. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that Distribution calibration includes: Analyze the distribution characteristics of the physical constraint hash code under the current environmental conditions, calculate the mean vector and standard deviation vector of the hash code under the current conditions, and obtain the hash distribution statistics; Applying a distribution calibration formula to adjust the hash distribution to a predefined target distribution; A relationship graph is constructed based on the cosine similarity between the calibrated hash codes. Each data point is used as a node in the graph and the similarity is used as the edge weight to form an initial relationship graph that represents the internal relationship of multi-source data.

10. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Applying graph convolutional neural network on dynamic fusion relationship graph for short-term wind power forecasting includes: Apply multi-layer graph convolution operations on the dynamic fusion relationship graph, combine the attention mechanism to fuse node features and graph structure information, and generate graph convolution features; A time series prediction layer is constructed based on graph convolution features, and the original power prediction value is output for the prediction time domain; Combined with the wind farm power curve model and current operating status, physical constraint correction is performed on the original power forecast value, and the corrected power forecast value is output; The confidence interval estimation method is applied to calculate the prediction uncertainty of the corrected power prediction value, and the wind power prediction result including the prediction value and confidence interval is output.

11. The method according to claim 7, characterized in that Generates comprehensive physical violations, including: Construct a wind speed-power curve constraint function, calculate the deviation between the predicted power corresponding to the hash code and the allowable power range under a given wind speed, and generate the power curve violation degree; Constructing a cut-in and cut-out wind speed constraint function, calculating the power output violation degree under the conditions of being lower than the cut-in wind speed or higher than the cut-out wind speed, and generating the cut-in and cut-out violation degree; Design a power change rate constraint function, calculate the degree to which the power change at adjacent moments exceeds the maximum allowable change rate, and generate the change rate violation degree; Integrate the above constraint functions, construct a comprehensive physical violation function, dynamically adjust the weights of each constraint, and generate a comprehensive physical violation.

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