Water inrush and mud inrush dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active regulation and control method

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of tunnels and underground engineering, and discloses a water inrush and mud inrush dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active regulation and control method. The method comprises the following steps: determining a water inrush and mud inrush disaster type of each paragraph in a tunnel and a corresponding risk disaster-inducing factor; establishing a risk assessment index system of each water inrush and mud inrush disaster type; establishing a preliminary risk assessment model, a secondary risk assessment model and a dynamic risk assessment model according to the variable weight strategy and the constant weight vector in combination with the risk assessment index system; and sequentially evaluating the tunnel by using the preliminary risk evaluation model and the secondary risk evaluation model, taking active risk regulation measures, and dynamically evaluating each section after regulation by using a dynamic risk evaluation model to obtain a dynamic risk evaluation level. Through dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active regulation and control measures, the risk assessment accuracy and the risk regulation and control effectiveness of water inrush and mud inrush disasters in tunnel construction are improved, and a powerful guarantee is provided for safe and efficient construction of tunnel engineering.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of tunnel and underground engineering, and particularly to a dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control method for water and mud inrush. Background Art

[0002] The southwestern plateau region is one of the regions with the most intense crustal deformation and tectonic activities in the world. It has significant terrain undulations, active plate movements, and dense distribution of deep and large faults. In addition, mountain disasters occur frequently in this region, and the geological environment is extremely complex, posing severe challenges to engineering construction. During the construction process, high-energy environments such as high water pressure, high-temperature hot water, and high ground stress are often faced, and the risk of water and mud inrush disasters is extremely high, posing a major safety threat to tunnel excavation construction. These problems are not only rare in China but also difficult problems in the field of international engineering construction. High-temperature water inrush and mud inrush disasters have been encountered many times during the construction process, and have become the "bottleneck" problems in engineering construction.

[0003] The disaster-causing mechanism of water and mud inrush under high-energy environments is extremely complex. The selection of control countermeasures and construction decisions relying on experience guidance have uncertainties, and the disaster prevention and control will face more severe challenges. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control method for water and mud inrush. The method includes: Determine the types of water and mud inrush disasters in each section of the tunnel, identify the risk sources of each type of water and mud inrush disaster based on the Delphi method and the preliminary hazard analysis method, and determine the risk-causing factors of each type of water and mud inrush disaster; According to the risk-causing factors of each type of water and mud inrush disaster, establish a risk assessment index system for each type of water and mud inrush disaster; Design a variable weight strategy, obtain a constant weight vector, construct a state variable weight vector function according to the variable weight strategy and the constant weight vector, and establish a preliminary risk assessment model, a secondary risk assessment model, and a dynamic risk assessment model respectively according to the state variable weight vector function and in combination with the risk assessment index system; Use the preliminary risk assessment model to preliminarily assess the water and mud inrush risk of each section of the tunnel, obtain a preliminary risk assessment level. If the preliminary risk assessment level is higher than the first preset level, use the secondary risk assessment model to conduct a secondary assessment of the water and mud inrush risk of the corresponding section of the tunnel, and obtain a secondary risk assessment level; If the secondary risk assessment level is higher than the second preset level, take active risk control measures, and use the dynamic risk assessment model to dynamically assess the water and mud inrush risk of the corresponding section of the tunnel after regulation, and obtain a dynamic risk assessment level.

[0005] In an alternative embodiment, the water and mud inrush disaster types include at least one of fault structure composite type, joint fissure type, weathering and erosion type, and dissolution fissure type. The risk disaster-causing factors include at least one of disaster-forming environment, risk factors, and risk control and dynamic feedback information. The disaster-forming environment of the fault structure composite type includes at least one of fault width, fault property, formation lithology, groundwater, fault cementation degree, joint fissures, and topography. The disaster-forming environment of the joint fissure type includes at least one of unfavorable geological structures, groundwater, formation lithology, joint fissure development degree, topography, and predicted water inrush. The disaster-forming environment of the weathering and erosion type includes at least one of unfavorable geological structures, groundwater, weathering and erosion degree, joint fissures, topography, predicted water inrush, and surrounding rock grade. The disaster-forming environment of the dissolution fissure type includes at least one of fault disaster-causing degree, groundwater, rock occurrence, formation lithology, topography, contact zone between soluble rock and insoluble rock, bedding and interlayer fissures, and surrounding rock grade. The risk factors of the fault structure composite type, the joint fissure type, the weathering and erosion type, and the dissolution fissure type all include at least one of excavation method, drainage scheme, support scheme, advanced geological prediction, and monitoring and measurement. The risk control and dynamic feedback information of the fault structure composite type, the joint fissure type, the weathering and erosion type, and the dissolution fissure type all include at least one of macroscopic geological precursor information and microscopic monitoring and measurement precursor information.

[0006] In an alternative embodiment, constructing the state variable weight vector function according to the variable weight strategy and the constant weight vector includes: Dividing the variable interval into a weak penalty interval, a non-punishment and non-incentive interval, a weak incentive interval, and a strong incentive interval; Obtaining a first preset parameter and a second preset parameter, where the first preset parameter is the adjustment amplitude of the strong incentive relative to the weak incentive, and the second preset parameter is the adjustment amplitude of the weak incentive relative to the weak penalty; Calculating a weight adjustment parameter according to the first preset parameter and the second preset parameter, constructing a state variable weight vector according to the weight adjustment parameter, and constructing the state variable weight vector function according to the state variable weight vector and the constant weight vector.

[0007] In an alternative embodiment, establishing a preliminary risk assessment model according to the state variable weight vector function and in combination with the risk assessment index system includes: According to the risk assessment index system, determining the first risk disaster-causing factors corresponding to the water and mud inrush disaster types of each section in the tunnel and the corresponding quantitative scoring results, where the first risk disaster-causing factors include the disaster-forming environment; Obtain the first preset constant weight vector of the first risk disaster-causing factors corresponding to the water and mud inrush disaster types of each section in the tunnel, and determine the corresponding first preset state variable weight vector according to the quantitative scoring results of the first risk disaster-causing factors. Based on the first preset state variable weight vector and the first preset constant weight vector, construct the preliminary state variable weight vector function of the first risk disaster-causing factors of each section in the tunnel; Multiply the preliminary state variable weight vector function of the first risk disaster-causing factors of each section in the tunnel by the corresponding quantitative scoring results respectively and sum them up to obtain the preliminary risk assessment model.

[0008] In an alternative embodiment, establishing a secondary risk assessment model according to the state variable weight vector function and in combination with the risk assessment index system includes: According to the risk assessment index system, determine the second risk disaster-causing factors corresponding to the water and mud inrush disaster types of each section in the tunnel and the corresponding quantitative scoring results, where the second risk disaster-causing factors include the disaster-bearing environment and the risk-causing factors; Obtain the second preset constant weight vector of the second risk disaster-causing factors corresponding to the water and mud inrush disaster types of each section in the tunnel, and determine the corresponding second preset state variable weight vector according to the quantitative scoring results of the second risk disaster-causing factors. Based on the second preset state variable weight vector and the second preset constant weight vector, construct the secondary state variable weight vector function of the second risk disaster-causing factors of each section in the tunnel; Multiply the secondary state variable weight vector function of the second risk disaster-causing factors of each section in the tunnel by the corresponding quantitative scoring results respectively and sum them up to obtain the secondary risk assessment model.

[0009] In an alternative embodiment, establishing a dynamic risk assessment model according to the state variable weight vector function and in combination with the risk assessment index system includes: According to the risk assessment index system, determine the third risk disaster-causing factors corresponding to the water and mud inrush disaster types of each section in the tunnel and the corresponding quantitative scoring results, where the third risk disaster-causing factors include the disaster-bearing environment, the risk-causing factors, and the risk control and dynamic feedback information; Obtain the third preset constant weight vector of the third risk disaster-causing factors corresponding to the water and mud inrush disaster types of each section in the tunnel, and determine the corresponding third preset state variable weight vector according to the quantitative scoring results of the third risk disaster-causing factors. Based on the third preset state variable weight vector and the third preset constant weight vector, construct the dynamic state variable weight vector function of the third risk disaster-causing factors of each section in the tunnel; Multiply the dynamic state variable weight vector functions of the third risk disaster-causing factors of each section in the tunnel by the corresponding quantitative scoring results and sum them to obtain the dynamic risk assessment model.

[0010] In an alternative embodiment, the taking of active risk control measures includes: Obtain the advanced geological prediction, and the advanced geological prediction information includes at least one of the position, scale, material composition, water volume, and water pressure of each section in the tunnel where the water inrush and mud outburst disaster type exists; When the advanced geological prediction shows that there is an abnormal body behind the tunnel face, generate a first control notice and send the first control notice to relevant personnel. The first control notice includes the adoption of construction method adjustment, where the abnormal body includes at least one of high-altitude karst, water-rich fracture, granite alteration zone, and joint fissure intensive zone; When the advanced geological prediction shows that the water-rich volume of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is lower than the first preset water-rich volume threshold, generate a second control notice and send the second control notice to the relevant personnel. The second control notice includes the adoption of construction method adjustment and advanced long pipe shed pre-support method; When the advanced geological prediction shows that the water-rich volume of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is higher than the first preset water-rich volume threshold and lower than the second preset water-rich volume threshold, generate a third control notice and send the third control notice to the relevant personnel. The third control notice includes the adoption of construction method adjustment, advanced long pipe shed pre-support method, and groundwater energy release and pressure reduction method; When the advanced geological prediction shows that the water-rich volume of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is higher than the second preset water-rich volume threshold, generate a fourth control notice and send the fourth control notice to the relevant personnel. The fourth control notice includes the adoption of construction method adjustment, advanced long pipe shed pre-support method, groundwater energy release and pressure reduction method, and grouting reinforcement method.

[0011] In an alternative embodiment, after using the dynamic risk assessment model to dynamically assess the water inrush and mud outburst risk after regulation and obtaining the dynamic risk assessment level, it further includes: Judge whether the dynamic risk assessment level is higher than the third preset level; If the dynamic risk assessment level is higher than the third preset level, generate a regulation plan change notice, send the regulation plan change notice to the relevant personnel, and use the dynamic risk assessment model to dynamically assess the water inrush and mud outburst risk after re-regulation until the dynamic risk assessment is lower than or equal to the third preset level.

[0012] The embodiments of the present application have the following advantages: The dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control method provided by the embodiments of the present application significantly improves the accuracy of risk assessment and the effectiveness of risk control for water and mud inrush disasters during tunnel construction by introducing dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control methods, providing a strong guarantee for the safe and efficient construction of tunnel projects.

[0013] To make the above objects, features, and advantages of the present invention more obvious and understandable, the following specifically enumerates preferred embodiments and, in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, provides detailed descriptions as follows. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0014] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments. It should be understood that the following drawings only show some embodiments of the present invention and should not be regarded as limiting the scope. For those of ordinary skill in the art, without creative efforts, other related drawings can be obtained based on these drawings. In each drawing, similar components are numbered similarly.

[0015] Figure 1 Shows the flowchart of a dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control method for water and mud inrush provided by the embodiments of the present application; Figure 2 Shows the technical system flowchart of an active risk control measure provided by the embodiments of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0016] The following details the embodiments of the present invention. The examples of the embodiments are shown in the drawings, where the same or similar reference numerals represent the same or similar elements or elements with the same or similar functions throughout. The embodiments described below with reference to the drawings are exemplary and are only used to explain the present invention and should not be construed as limiting the present invention.

[0017] The terms "first" and "second" are only used for descriptive purposes and cannot be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly specifying the quantity of the indicated technical features. Thus, the features defined with "first" and "second" may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of such features. In the description of the present invention, "a plurality" means two or more unless otherwise specifically defined.

[0018] Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by those of ordinary skill in the art belonging to the technical field of the present application. The terms used in the description of the present invention herein are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the present invention. The term "and / or" used herein includes any and all combinations of one or more of the related listed items.

[0019] Embodiment 1 As Figure 1 shown, it is a flowchart of a dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control method for water and mud inrush in an embodiment of the present application. The dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control method for water and mud inrush provided by the embodiment of the present application includes the following steps: Step S110, determine the water and mud inrush disaster types of each section in the tunnel, identify the risk sources of each water and mud inrush disaster type based on the Delphi method and the preliminary hazard analysis method, and determine the risk disaster-causing factors of each water and mud inrush disaster type.

[0020] Understandably, the southwestern region is one of the regions with the most intense crustal deformation and tectonic activities in the world. The terrain has huge undulations, significant plate movements, dense distribution of deep and large faults, frequent mountain disasters, and extremely harsh geological environments. In this embodiment, for the high-temperature water inrush and mud inrush disasters that have occurred in the southwestern region, analyze their disaster characteristics: (1) In the areas with uneven crustal movements, multiple regional active fault zones have developed. These fault zones have complex tectonic evolutions and significant activities. Each regional fault zone consists of multiple small faults of different scales, and these active faults have different degrees of influence on the engineering safety in the southwestern region. In addition, fault activities may also trigger disasters such as water and mud inrush, thus seriously threatening construction safety and affecting the project progress; (2) The current excavation of tunnels under construction in the southwestern region reveals that some tunnels have high-temperature and high-pressure water, and it is extremely easy to encounter high-temperature and high-pressure water inrush and mud inrush disasters during construction; (3) The plateau karst environment traversed by the southwestern region is generally not conducive to karst development. The high-energy environment of plateau karst has no strong disaster-causing properties, and its development is generally medium or weakly developed. Because the plateau geological environment is intricate, the terrain and climate are changeable, the climate is dry and cold, which are not conducive to the formation of karst landforms. The low-temperature environment at high altitudes and the large temperature difference are also important reasons for the special development of plateau karst; (4) The highly undulating topography and extremely sensitive climate and weather in the southwestern region, with large terrain undulations and deep river cuts, have formed large, strongly developed soft altered zones, differential weathering zones, and densely developed joint fissure zones, as well as developed concealed joint dense zones, alternating altered zones, and weathering zones, resulting in large-scale mud and water inrush in the "collapse-induced water inrush" mode.

[0021] By carrying out the above-mentioned major disaster identification research on water and mud inrush, it is determined that deep and large faults, high-temperature and high-pressure water, plateau karst, joint fissure zones, and differential weathering and altered rock zones are the main high-energy environmental factors affecting the occurrence of water and mud inrush disasters. Therefore, four types of water and mud inrush disasters are summarized: fault structure composite type, joint fissure type, weathering and alteration type, and dissolution fissure type.

[0022] Furthermore, based on the Delphi method and the preliminary hazard analysis method, the risk-causing factors of four types of water and mud inrush disasters, namely fault structure composite type, joint fissure type, weathering and erosion type, and dissolution fissure type, are determined, mainly including: (1) Disaster-forming environment: The favorable conditions for the formation of water inrush disasters in terms of time and space, including the formation lithology conducive to the development of water bodies, and groundwater rich in easily erodible, soluble and mobile substances; 2) External interference factors: Construction, blasting, vibration or other human activities lead to the destruction of the original balance state. Such factors can be summarized into two aspects: risk-causing factors for disasters and risk control and dynamic feedback information.

[0023] Understandably, the disaster-forming environmental factors are the material basis and disaster-risk conditions for water and mud inrush disasters, and also the main controlling factors for water and mud inrush disasters. Construction technology factors are the inducing factors for risks. For advanced geological forecasting, monitoring and measurement, and excavation support, the reasonable organization of factors such as plans, personnel, equipment, and management will significantly reduce the risk level. At the same time, during the construction process, according to the tunnel excavation exposure, advanced geological forecasting situation, and dynamic feedback information of monitoring and measurement, the karst hydrogeological and engineering geological conditions are corrected to realize the dynamic assessment of the risk of water and mud inrush in the tunnel during the construction process. Therefore, the risk-causing factors for the above four types of water and mud inrush disasters are shown in Table 1.

[0024] Table 1 Risk-causing factors for different types of water and mud inrush disasters

[0025] It should be noted that the above-mentioned types of water and mud inrush disasters and their corresponding risk-causing factors can be flexibly adjusted according to specific situations and actual needs during the actual application process, including but not limited to appropriate increase, decrease or modification, and should not be limited to the scope of the several types of disasters and factors clearly mentioned in this embodiment. This embodiment does not make any limitations in this regard.

[0026] The above method uses the Delphi method and the preliminary hazard analysis method to systematically identify the types of water and mud inrush disasters in the complex geological environment of the southwestern region, classifies the risk factors into three stages: exploration, construction, and dynamic feedback, clarifies the evaluation key points at different stages, ensures the comprehensiveness of the coverage of risk factors, lays a foundation for the construction of a multi-stage dynamic evaluation model, and ensures that the design optimization before construction and the real-time regulation during construction are based on evidence.

[0027] Step S120, according to the risk-causing factors of each type of water and mud inrush disaster, establish a risk assessment index system for each type of water and mud inrush disaster.

[0028] In the multi-stage assessment of water and mud inrush risks, combined with the characteristics of water and mud inrush disasters during tunnel construction, the risk index system is divided into three categories: hydrogeological and engineering geological conditions, construction factors, and dynamic real-time feedback information. The risk assessment index system and the corresponding quantitative scoring assignments are shown in Tables 2, 3, and 4 below. Subsequently, based on this, multi-stage dynamic assessments can be carried out for the entire process of tunnel exploration, design, and construction.

[0029] Table 2 Risk Assessment Index System for Joint Fracture Type and Corrosion Fracture Type Tunnels

[0030] Table 3 Risk Assessment Index System for Weathering Erosion Type Tunnels

[0031] Table 4 Risk Assessment Index System for Fault Structure Composite Type Tunnels

[0032] The above method refines the risk-causing factors of each type of water and mud inrush disaster into quantifiable indicators and realizes standardized assignment through a multi-level scoring standard (0 - 1), solving the problem of ambiguity in traditional qualitative assessments, improving the comparability and operability of assessment results, and providing a scientific basis for subsequent risk assessments.

[0033] Step S130: Design a variable weight strategy, obtain a constant weight vector, construct a state variable weight vector function according to the variable weight strategy and the constant weight vector, and respectively establish a preliminary risk assessment model, a secondary risk assessment model, and a dynamic risk assessment model according to the state variable weight vector function and in combination with the risk assessment index system.

[0034] It should be noted that, due to the characteristics of variable weight theory and combined with the characteristics of water and mud inrush risk assessment, when the values of a few risk indicators are very large and their weights are very small, the calculated risk level often tends to be on the safe side. Therefore, in this embodiment, based on the variable weight idea of strong incentive and weak punishment, the variable weight strategy is designed as follows: (1) Strong incentive strategy: For indicators in a dangerous state (with a relatively large score value), incentive is carried out, the weight is increased, incentive-type variable weight is performed, the risk level is increased, and the degree of risk consequence level becomes more serious; (2) Weak punishment strategy: For indicators in a safe state (with a relatively small score value), weak punishment is carried out to reduce their weights and avoid the restriction and influence on the risk assessment consequence caused by the increase in weight; (3) Strategy of neither punishment nor incentive: For indicators in an intermediate state (with a score value at the average level), neither punishment nor incentive is carried out, and their influence on the risk level is neither increased nor decreased.

[0035] Specifically, first divide the variable interval of the state variable weight vector into a weak penalty interval, a non-punishment and non-incentive interval, a weak incentive interval, and a strong incentive interval, which respectively correspond to the division of four risk levels, namely: According to the strong penalty, weak penalty, non-punishment - non-incentive, strong incentive, and weak incentive methods of the penalty - incentive state, when constructing the state variable weight vector, establish a corresponding piecewise function according to the specific penalty - incentive state requirements. For the weak penalty - strong incentive variable weight selection in this embodiment, establish the following state variable weight vector: To determine the state variable weight vector as above For the specific parameter values of the function, first according to By default, when When, ; At the same time, If it is in the form of a piecewise local variable weight function, in actual application, it is often based on the degree of weight change, so a first preset parameter is proposed to represent the adjustment amplitude of the weak incentive relative to the strong incentive, and a second preset parameter representing the adjustment amplitude of the weak penalty relative to the weak incentive

[0036] Since the derivative of the state variable weight vector reflects the degree of weight change, the slope between the endpoints is used to simplify the determination of the first preset parameter and the second preset parameter , thus obtaining the following relationship: In the formula, , , , are weight adjustment parameters, represents the minimum value of the equilibrium function when there is no punishment and no incentive, , , are variable weight interval thresholds.

[0037] It should be noted that in actual application, the weight adjustment parameters , the first preset parameter , the second preset parameter , the variable weight interval thresholds , , can be set, and according to the above relationship, the weight adjustment parameters , , are determined, and then the specific state variable weight vector is determined. Exemplarily, the weight adjustment parameter takes 0.3, the first preset parameter Take 0.5, which represents that the weak incentive adjustment amplitude is 0.5 times that of the strong incentive adjustment amplitude, that is, the strong incentive adjustment amplitude is 2 times that of the weak incentive adjustment amplitude, the second preset parameter Take 0.667, which represents that the weak penalty amplitude is 0.667 times that of the weak incentive amplitude, that is, the weak incentive amplitude is 1.5 times that of the weak penalty amplitude, the variable weight interval threshold 、 、 Take 0.3, 0.5, and 0.8 respectively, and determine the weight adjustment parameters according to the above relational expressions 、 、 They are 2.22, 3.33, and 1.682 in sequence. Therefore, the state variable weight vector is as follows: In the water inrush and mud outburst risk assessment, different risk disaster-causing factors have different degrees of influence on the occurrence of disasters. In the design of the variable weight strategy in the above method, based on the variable weight idea of strong incentive and weak penalty, the weight is dynamically adjusted through a piecewise function. For example, for high-risk indicators, exponential strong incentives are adopted to significantly amplify their weights, avoiding misjudgment of low-weight and high-risk indicators. Differentiated weight adjustments are made for indicators in different dangerous states, which can more accurately reflect the actual influence degree of each risk indicator on the water inrush and mud outburst disasters, realize the fine classification of risks, and effectively avoid the risk misjudgment caused by the traditional fixed weight method.

[0038] Furthermore, for any constant weight vector , there is always a state variable weight vector function : According to the quantitative scoring results of each corresponding indicator, the multi-stage variable weight-index system method model is established as: First of all, through the detailed analysis of geological conditions, groundwater conditions and historical data, identify and evaluate potential water inrush and mud outburst risks. The preliminary risk assessment of water inrush and mud outburst only needs to consider the disaster-forming environment. Obtain the first preset constant weight vector of the first risk disaster-causing factor (i.e., the disaster-forming environment) corresponding to the water inrush and mud outburst disaster types in each section of the tunnel, and determine the corresponding variable interval according to the quantitative scoring results of each first risk disaster-causing factor, and then determine the corresponding first preset state variable weight vector. Substitute the first preset state variable weight vector and the first preset constant weight vector into the expression of the state variable weight vector function, so as to construct the preliminary state variable weight vector function of the first risk disaster-causing factor in each section of the tunnel. Then multiply the preliminary state variable weight vector functions of the first risk disaster-causing factors in each section of the tunnel by the corresponding quantitative scoring results and sum them to obtain the preliminary risk assessment model.

[0039] Exemplarily, if the water and mud inrush disaster type of a certain section is weathering and erosion type, the corresponding disaster-forming environments are: bad geological structure, groundwater, predicted water inflow, weathering and erosion degree, topography, joint fissures, and surrounding rock grade. The corresponding quantitative scoring results are [0.9, 0.75, 0.85, 0.75, 0.8, 0.75, 0.85], and the first preset constant weight vector is [0.3204, 0.1754, 0.1835, 0.1665, 0.0414, 0.0528, 0.0601]. Substitute the corresponding first preset state weight vector into the expression of the above state weight vector function to obtain the preliminary state weight vector function is [0.3904, 0.1380, 0.1963, 0.1310, 0.0385, 0.0415, 0.0643]. The preliminary risk assessment model for water and mud inrush in complex geological tunnels of the weathering and erosion type is simplified into the following formula because there are seven independent variables: In the formula, represents the quantitative scoring results corresponding to each first risk disaster-causing factor determined according to the risk assessment index system, and can be calculated according to specific values .

[0040] Secondly, the secondary assessment of water and mud inrush is carried out before construction, aiming to evaluate the rationality of the construction organization design. At this stage, in addition to considering the disaster-forming environments investigated in the early stage, the risk-causing factors of construction factors also need to be considered additionally to more accurately predict the potential risks that may occur during construction. Obtain the second preset constant weight vector of the second risk disaster-causing factors (i.e., disaster-forming environments and risk-causing factors) corresponding to the water and mud inrush disaster types of each section in the tunnel, determine the corresponding variable interval according to the quantitative scoring results of each second risk disaster-causing factor, and then determine the corresponding second preset state weight vector. Substitute the second preset state weight vector and the second preset constant weight vector into the expression of the state weight vector function to construct the secondary state weight vector function of the second risk disaster-causing factors of each section in the tunnel. Then multiply and sum the secondary state weight vector functions of the second risk disaster-causing factors of each section in the tunnel with the corresponding quantitative scoring results respectively to obtain the secondary risk assessment model.

[0041] Exemplarily, if the water and mud inrush disaster type of a certain section is weathering and erosion type, the corresponding disaster-forming environments and risk-causing factors are: bad geological structure, groundwater, predicted water inflow, weathering and erosion degree, topography, joint fissures, surrounding rock grade, excavation method, drainage scheme, support scheme, advanced geological prediction, and monitoring measurement. The corresponding quantitative scoring results are [0.9, 0.75, 0.85, 0.75, 0.8, 0.75, 0.85, 0.2, 0.4, 0.65, 0.4, 0.5] second preset constant weight vector is [0.2136, 0.1169, 0.1223, 0.1110, 0.0276, 0.0352, 0.0401, 0.1614, 0.0822, 0.0431, 0.0183, 0.0284], and substitute the corresponding second preset state variable weight vector into the expression of the above state variable weight vector function to obtain the quadratic state variable weight vector function is [0.3125, 0.1104, 0.1571, 0.1048, 0.0308, 0.0332, 0.0511, 0.0973, 0.0461, 0.0300, 0.0103, 0.0159]. The quadratic risk assessment model for water inrush and mud burst in complex geological tunnels of the weathering and erosion type is simplified into the following formula because there are twelve independent variables: In the formula, represents the quantitative scoring results corresponding to each second risk disaster-causing factor determined according to the risk assessment index system, which can be calculated according to specific values .

[0042] Finally, the dynamic risk assessment of water inrush and mud burst is based on the evaluation method of the quadratic risk assessment model, and adds the analysis of the importance of data characteristics in the water inrush and mud burst disaster case database. It is a comprehensive assessment considering the disaster-bearing environment, disaster-causing factors, and risk control and dynamic feedback information. Obtain the third preset constant weight vector of the third risk disaster-causing factor (i.e., the disaster-bearing environment, disaster-causing factors, and risk control and dynamic feedback information) corresponding to the water inrush and mud burst disaster types in each section of the tunnel, and determine the corresponding variable interval according to the quantitative scoring results of each third risk disaster-causing factor, and then determine the corresponding third preset state variable weight vector. Substitute the third preset state variable weight vector and the third preset constant weight vector into the expression of the state variable weight vector function to construct the dynamic state variable weight vector function of the third risk disaster-causing factor in each section of the tunnel. Then multiply the dynamic state variable weight vector function of the third risk disaster-causing factor in each section of the tunnel by the corresponding quantitative scoring results and sum them to obtain the dynamic risk assessment model.

[0043] Exemplarily, if the water inrush and mud burst disaster type in a certain section is of the weathering and erosion type, the corresponding disaster-bearing environment, disaster-causing factors, and risk control and dynamic feedback information are: poor geological structure, groundwater, predicted water inrush volume, weathering and erosion degree, topography and geomorphology, joints and fractures, surrounding rock grade, excavation method, drainage plan, support plan, advanced geological prediction, monitoring measurement, macroscopic geological precursor information, and microscopic monitoring measurement precursor information. The corresponding quantitative scoring results are [0.9, 0.75, 0.85, 0.75, 0.8, 0.75, 0.85, 0.2, 0.4, 0.65, 0.4, 0.5, 0.8, 0.6], and the third preset constant weight vector is [0.1865, 0.1021, 0.1068, 0.0969, 0.0241, 0.0307, 0.0350, 0.1496, 0.0762, 0.0400, 0.0263, 0.0170, 0.0730, 0.0365], and substitute the corresponding third preset state variable weight vector into the expression of the above state variable weight vector function to obtain the dynamic state variable weight vector function is [0.2762, 0.0976, 0.1389, 0.0926, 0.0272, 0.0294, 0.0455, 0.0913, 0.0432, 0.0282, 0.0149, 0.0096, 0.0824, 0.0228]. Since there are fourteen independent variables in the dynamic risk assessment model of water and mud inrush in complex geological tunnels of weathering and erosion type, it is simplified into the following formula: In the formula, represents the quantitative scoring results corresponding to each third risk disaster-causing factor determined according to the risk assessment index system, which can be calculated according to specific values .

[0044] In the construction of the state variable weight vector function in the above method, the quantitative scoring of the indicators is divided into different intervals, and each interval corresponds to a different variable weight strategy. This way of piecewise function makes the weight adjustment more flexible and can make different responses to different risk levels. By combining multi-stage evaluations (preliminary evaluation, secondary evaluation, and dynamic evaluation), and applying the state variable weight vector function at each stage to dynamically adjust the weight according to the actual state of the risk indicators to adapt to the changes in the risk situation, it avoids the evaluation deviation caused by the fixed weight and improves the reliability of the evaluation. The construction of the preliminary risk assessment model only considers the disaster-bearing environment and can quickly identify high-risk sections to provide pre-warning for construction planning; the construction of the secondary risk assessment model incorporates risk-causing factors in addition to the disaster-bearing environment and can effectively evaluate the rationality of the construction plan and optimize the support measures. The dynamic risk assessment model integrates risk control and dynamic feedback information in addition to the disaster-bearing environment and risk-causing factors, realizes the real-time correction of risks during construction, and ensures the accuracy of the control measures. By establishing three levels of risk assessment models, it is possible to accurately locate the water and mud inrush risks in each section of the tunnel, realizing a risk assessment process from preliminary to in-depth and from static to dynamic, and improving the comprehensiveness and accuracy of risk assessment.

[0045] Step S140, use the preliminary risk assessment model to conduct a preliminary assessment of the water and mud inrush risks in each section of the tunnel to obtain a preliminary risk assessment level. If the preliminary risk assessment level is higher than the first preset level, use the secondary risk assessment model to conduct a secondary assessment of the water and mud inrush risks in the corresponding section of the tunnel to obtain a secondary risk assessment level.

[0046] It should be noted that the dynamic variable weight risk assessment method for water and mud inrush of this application is a risk assessment method that combines multiple factors and adapts to dynamic environmental changes. Its core includes multi-stage assessment (preliminary assessment and secondary assessment before construction, and dynamic assessment during the construction stage). And the state variable weight vector function is applied in each stage to dynamically adjust the weight to adapt to the change of risk situation and improve the reliability of assessment.

[0047] Understandably, first, the preliminary risk assessment model is used to conduct a preliminary assessment of the water and mud inrush risk of each section in the tunnel, obtain the preliminary risk assessment score, and determine the preliminary risk assessment level according to the preset level division rules. Exemplarily, in this embodiment, the preset level division rules are shown in Table 5 below: Table 5 Preset Level Division Rules for Water and Mud Inrush

[0048] In the above table, the specific meanings represented by each level are shown in Table 6 below: Table 6 Meaning Table for Risk Level Division

[0049] Exemplarily, the preliminary risk assessment score calculated according to the preliminary risk assessment model in step S130 , according to the above Table 5 and Table 6, the preliminary risk assessment level belongs to level Ⅳ, and there is a probability of large-scale outburst / greater water and mud inrush disasters, the water inrush volume is approximately 1000m 3 / h~10000m 3 / h, the instantaneous water inrush volume is approximately 1~2.5m 3 / s, and the mud inrush volume ≥ 500m 3 .

[0050] In this stage, although the risk identification and assessment are mainly the preliminary assessment of the water and mud inrush risk, it has important guiding significance for the implementation and construction of the next project. If the preliminary risk assessment level is higher than the first preset level (such as level Ⅲ), then the secondary risk assessment model is further used to conduct a secondary assessment of the water and mud inrush risk of each section in the tunnel, and similarly, the secondary risk assessment score is obtained, and the secondary risk assessment level is determined according to the preset level division rules.

[0051] In the above method, the preliminary assessment quickly locates high-risk areas through disaster-bearing environment indicators, reduces the computational workload of the comprehensive assessment, and shortens the decision-making response time. Compared with the preliminary assessment, the secondary assessment is more comprehensive and in-depth. It combines construction factors to verify the design rationality and discovers potential risks. Through the secondary assessment, the support measures can be further refined and optimized, reducing the likelihood of water and mud inrush accidents. At the same time, the results of the secondary assessment also provide an important basis for subsequent dynamic assessments.

[0052] Step S150, if the secondary risk assessment level is higher than the second preset level, take active risk control measures, and use the dynamic risk assessment model to dynamically assess the water and mud inrush risk of the corresponding section in the tunnel after the control, to obtain the dynamic risk assessment level.

[0053] Furthermore, if the secondary risk assessment level is higher than the second preset level (such as level III), active risk control measures should be taken in a timely manner to reduce the risk, thereby reducing the difficulty of dealing with mud and water inrush disasters and reducing the construction cost.

[0054] It is understandable that first, the advanced geological prediction results need to be obtained. The advanced geological prediction results are used to analyze the harm degree of the water and mud inrush disaster in the tunnel, including information such as the location, scale, material composition, water volume, water pressure, etc. of each section with the water and mud inrush disaster type in the tunnel. The specific active risk control measures are as follows: (1) In the case of sudden mud and water inrush, the stability of the tunnel face is threatened. The larger the cross-section, the worse the stability. Therefore, it is necessary to convert the construction method according to the severity of the advanced geological prediction: adjust the full-face construction to the bench method to improve the stability of the tunnel face. As follows Figure 2 shown, when the advanced geological prediction shows that there is an abnormal body behind the tunnel face, to ensure stability and construction controllability, generate the first control notice and send the first control notice to relevant personnel. The first control notice includes taking construction method adjustment. Usually, the safety distance is set to 3 to 5 meters. The construction method adjustment must be completed in advance. Before draining water, pre-supporting and grouting, do not expose the bad geological body randomly. To ensure the normal operation of large machinery, the length of the upper bench should be set to 3 to 5 meters, the length of the middle bench is about 10 meters, the mechanical equipment should be placed on the middle bench, and a working room should be set at the position of the middle bench close to the upper bench. Therefore, when it is at least 14 meters away from the abnormal body, a working room must be reserved and the construction method should be converted. During the conversion process, safety monitoring is required to ensure the safety of personnel and equipment; (2) As Figure 2As shown in the figure, according to the analysis of the advanced geological prediction results, when the water-rich volume of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is lower than the first preset water-rich volume threshold, the energy contained in the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is low, the construction scale is small, and the prevention and control difficulty is relatively low. In this case, a second control notice should be generated and sent to relevant personnel. The second control notice includes adjusting the construction method and using the advanced long pipe-shed pre-support method; (3)As Figure 2 shown in the figure, according to the analysis of the advanced geological prediction results, when the water-rich volume of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is higher than the first preset water-rich volume threshold and lower than the second preset water-rich volume threshold, the energy contained in the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is high, the construction scale is large, and the prevention and control difficulty is relatively high. To effectively respond to this situation, a fifth control notice should be generated and sent to relevant personnel. The fifth control notice includes adjusting the construction method, using the advanced long pipe-shed pre-support method, and the groundwater energy release and pressure reduction method (such as setting drainage holes in advance in the area of the abnormal body in front of the tunnel face, or adding global water drainage measures behind the tunnel face and in the working chamber) to timely drain the groundwater of the abnormal body in front of the tunnel face. Through this comprehensive method, the water of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face can be drained in time, the energy conversion in the water-rich stratum can be reduced, thereby reducing the treatment difficulty, which is beneficial to ensuring the stability of the tunnel face during the tunnel excavation process and then guaranteeing the construction safety. Among them, the second preset water-rich volume threshold is greater than or equal to the first preset water-rich volume threshold; (4)As Figure 2 shown in the figure, according to the analysis of the advanced geological prediction results, when the water-rich volume of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is higher than the second preset water-rich volume threshold, the energy contained in the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is high, the construction scale is large, and the prevention and control difficulty is extremely high. If not properly handled, it is easy to cause complex problems such as debris flow and mud-rock flow. To effectively prevent and control mud and water inrush, a fourth control notice should be generated and sent to relevant personnel. The fourth control notice includes a four-in-one measure of adjusting the construction method, using the advanced long pipe-shed pre-support method, the groundwater energy release and pressure reduction method, and the grouting reinforcement method (such as repairing the mechanical properties of the surrounding rock through advanced high-pressure grouting). This method can not only effectively prevent and control the occurrence of mud and water inrush, but also play a significant role in the safety and stability of the tunnel.

[0055] After implementing the above dynamic control measures, a dynamic risk assessment model should be used for dynamic assessment to obtain the dynamic risk assessment level.

[0056] Through dynamic risk assessment and proactive risk control measures, the above method can timely identify and reduce the risks of water and mud inrush during tunnel construction, achieving hierarchical management and precise control of risks. Especially in areas with complex geological conditions and high risks, by taking preventive measures in advance, such as construction method conversion, advanced support, and groundwater treatment, the stability of the tunnel face can be significantly improved, the occurrence of disasters such as mud inrush and water gushing can be reduced, thereby ensuring the safety of construction personnel and the structural safety of the tunnel, reducing the overall construction cost, and improving construction efficiency.

[0057] In an optional implementation manner, after obtaining the dynamic risk assessment level, it is judged whether the result of the dynamic risk assessment is higher than the third preset level (for example, level II): (1) If the dynamic risk assessment level is higher than the third preset level, a notice of adjustment of the control plan is generated and sent to the relevant personnel, so that the relevant personnel immediately change the construction plan, re-adopt proactive control measures, and use the dynamic risk assessment model to dynamically assess the risks of water and mud inrush again after re-control until the dynamic risk assessment level is lower than or equal to the third preset level; (2) On the contrary, if it is evaluated that the dynamic risk assessment level is lower than or equal to the third preset level, there is no need to conduct a dynamic assessment again subsequently.

[0058] By judging whether the dynamic risk assessment level is lower than or equal to the third preset level (for example, level II), the above method can more scientifically guide the adjustment of the construction plan. When the dynamic risk assessment level does not meet the preset construction requirements, it can immediately notify the relevant personnel to change the construction plan. This flexible response mechanism helps to quickly respond to risk changes and ensure the smooth progress of the construction process. Through repeated dynamic assessment and adjustment of control measures, the optimal construction plan can be continuously approached, ensuring the stability of construction quality, which helps to improve the overall structural safety and service life of the tunnel.

[0059] The method for dynamic variable-weight risk assessment and proactive control of water and mud inrush provided by the embodiments of the present application significantly improves the accuracy of risk assessment and the effectiveness of risk control of water and mud inrush disasters during tunnel construction, providing a strong guarantee for the safe and efficient construction of tunnel projects.

[0060] In several embodiments provided in this application, it should be understood that the disclosed devices and methods can also be implemented in other ways. The device embodiments described above are merely illustrative. For example, the flowcharts and structure diagrams in the accompanying drawings show the possible architectures, functions, and operations of the devices, methods, and computer program products according to multiple embodiments of the present invention. In this regard, each block in the flowchart or block diagram can represent a module, a program segment, or a part of code, and the module, program segment, or part of code contains one or more executable instructions for implementing the specified logical function. It should also be noted that in an alternative implementation, the functions marked in the blocks can occur in a different order than that marked in the accompanying drawings. For example, two consecutive blocks can actually be executed substantially in parallel, and they can sometimes be executed in the reverse order, depending on the functions involved. It should also be noted that each block in the structure diagram and / or flowchart, as well as the combination of blocks in the structure diagram and / or flowchart, can be implemented by a dedicated hardware-based system that performs the specified functions or actions, or can be implemented by a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions.

[0061] In addition, each functional module or unit in various embodiments of the present invention can be integrated together to form an independent part, or each module can exist separately, or two or more modules can be integrated to form an independent part.

[0062] If the described functions are implemented in the form of software functional modules and sold or used as an independent product, they can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art, or a part of this technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. This computer software product is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions for causing a computer device (which can be a smart phone, a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the methods described in various embodiments of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: various media such as USB flash drives, mobile hard disks, read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), magnetic disks, or optical discs that can store program codes.

[0063] As described above, the above are only the specific implementation manners of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention can easily think of changes or substitutions, which should all be covered by the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control of water and mud inrush, characterized in that: The method comprises: Determine the type of water and mud inrush disaster in each section of the tunnel, identify the risk source of each type of water and mud inrush disaster based on the Delphi method and the pre-hazard analysis method, and determine the risk factor of each type of water and mud inrush disaster; According to the risk factors of each type of water and mud sudden disaster, a risk assessment index system for each type of water and mud sudden disaster is established; Design a variable weight strategy, obtain a constant weight vector, construct a state variable weight vector function according to the variable weight strategy and the constant weight vector, and establish a preliminary risk assessment model, a secondary risk assessment model and a dynamic risk assessment model according to the state variable weight vector function and in combination with the risk assessment indicator system; Using the preliminary risk assessment model to conduct a preliminary assessment of the water and mud inrush risk of each section in the tunnel to obtain a preliminary risk assessment level; if the preliminary risk assessment level is higher than the first preset level, using the secondary risk assessment model to conduct a secondary assessment of the water and mud inrush risk of the corresponding section in the tunnel to obtain a secondary risk assessment level; If the secondary risk assessment level is higher than the second preset level, active risk control measures are taken, and the dynamic risk assessment model is used to dynamically assess the risk of sudden water and mud inrush in the corresponding section of the tunnel after control to obtain a dynamic risk assessment level.

2. The method for dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control of water and mud inrush according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The types of water and mud sudden disasters include at least one of the fault structure complex type, joint and fissure type, weathering and alteration type and dissolution and fissure type. The risk disaster factors include at least one of the disaster-prone environment, risk factors and risk control and dynamic feedback information. The disaster-prone environment of the fault structure complex type includes at least one of the fault width, fault properties, stratum lithology, groundwater, fault cementation degree, joints and fissures and topography. The disaster-prone environment of the joint and fissure type includes at least one of the unfavorable geological structure, groundwater, stratum lithology, joint and fissure development degree, topography and geomorphology and predicted water inflow. The disaster-prone environment of the weathering and alteration type includes at least one of the unfavorable geological structure, groundwater, weathering and alteration degree, joints and fissures, topography and geomorphology. , predicted water inflow and at least one of the surrounding rock level; the disaster-prone environment of the dissolution fissure type includes at least one of the fault disaster degree, groundwater, rock formation dip, stratum lithology, topography, contact zone between soluble rock and non-soluble rock, layer and interlayer fissures and surrounding rock level; the risk factors of the fault structure complex type, the joint and fissure type, the weathering and alteration type and the dissolution fissure type all include at least one of the excavation method, drainage plan, support plan, advanced geological prediction and monitoring and measurement; the risk control and dynamic feedback information of the fault structure complex type, the joint and fissure type, the weathering and alteration type and the dissolution fissure type all include at least one of the macroscopic geological precursor information and the microscopic monitoring and measurement precursor information.

3. The method for dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control of water and mud inrush according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The step of constructing a state variable weight vector function according to the variable weight strategy and the constant weight vector includes: Divide the variable interval into a weak penalty interval, a no-punishment no-incentive interval, a weak incentive interval, and a strong incentive interval; Obtaining a first preset parameter and a second preset parameter, wherein the first preset parameter is an adjustment range of a strong incentive relative to a weak incentive, and the second preset parameter is an adjustment range of a weak incentive relative to a weak penalty; A weight adjustment parameter is calculated according to the first preset parameter and the second preset parameter, a state variable weight vector is constructed according to the weight adjustment parameter, and the state variable weight vector function is constructed according to the state variable weight vector and the constant weight vector.

4. The method for dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control of water and mud inrush according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The step of establishing a preliminary risk assessment model based on the state variable weight vector function and in combination with the risk assessment index system includes: According to the risk assessment index system, determining the first risk disaster factor and the corresponding quantitative scoring result corresponding to the water and mud inrush disaster type in each section of the tunnel, wherein the first risk disaster factor includes the disaster-prone environment; Obtaining a first preset constant weight vector of a first risk disaster factor corresponding to a water and mud inrush disaster type in each section of the tunnel, and determining a corresponding first preset state variable weight vector according to a quantitative scoring result of the first risk disaster factor, and constructing a preliminary state variable weight vector function of the first risk disaster factor in each section of the tunnel according to the first preset state variable weight vector and the first preset constant weight vector; The preliminary state variable weight vector function of the first risk hazard factor of each section in the tunnel is multiplied by the corresponding quantitative scoring result and then summed to obtain the preliminary risk assessment model.

5. The method for dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control of water and mud inrush according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The second risk assessment model is established based on the state variable weight vector function and in combination with the risk assessment index system, including: According to the risk assessment index system, determine the second risk disaster factor and the corresponding quantitative scoring result corresponding to the water and mud inrush disaster type in each section of the tunnel, wherein the second risk disaster factor includes the disaster-prone environment and the risk factor; Obtain a second preset constant weight vector of a second risk disaster factor corresponding to the water and mud inrush disaster type of each section in the tunnel, and determine a corresponding second preset state variable weight vector according to the quantitative scoring result of the second risk disaster factor, and construct a secondary state variable weight vector function of the second risk disaster factor of each section in the tunnel according to the second preset state variable weight vector and the second preset constant weight vector; The secondary state variable weight vector function of the second risk disaster factor of each section in the tunnel is multiplied by the corresponding quantitative scoring result and summed up to obtain the secondary risk assessment model.

6. The method for dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control of water and mud inrush according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The step of establishing a dynamic risk assessment model based on the state variable weight vector function and in combination with the risk assessment index system includes: According to the risk assessment index system, the third risk disaster factor and the corresponding quantitative scoring result corresponding to the water and mud sudden disaster type in each section of the tunnel are determined, wherein the third risk disaster factor includes the disaster-prone environment, the risk factor and the risk control and dynamic feedback information; Obtain the third preset constant weight vector of the third risk disaster factor corresponding to the water and mud inrush disaster type of each section in the tunnel, and determine the corresponding third preset state variable weight vector according to the quantitative scoring result of the third risk disaster factor, and construct the dynamic state variable weight vector function of the third risk disaster factor of each section in the tunnel according to the third preset state variable weight vector and the third preset constant weight vector; The dynamic state variable weight vector function of the third risk disaster factor of each section in the tunnel is multiplied by the corresponding quantitative scoring result and the sum is calculated to obtain the dynamic risk assessment model.

7. The method for dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control of water and mud inrush according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The proactive risk control measures include: Acquire the advanced geological prediction information, wherein the advanced geological prediction information includes at least one of the location, scale, material composition, water volume, and water pressure of each section in the tunnel where the water and mud inrush disaster type exists; When the advanced geological forecast shows that there is an abnormal body behind the tunnel face, a first control notice is generated and sent to relevant personnel, wherein the first control notice includes taking construction method adjustments, wherein the abnormal body includes at least one of plateau karst, water-rich faults, granite alteration zones, and joint and fissure intensive zones; When the advanced geological forecast shows that the water-rich volume of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is lower than the first preset water-rich volume threshold, a second control notification is generated and sent to the relevant personnel, wherein the second control notification includes taking construction method adjustment and advanced long pipe shed pre-support method; When the advanced geological forecast shows that the water-rich amount of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is higher than the first preset water-rich amount threshold and lower than the second preset water-rich amount threshold, a third control notice is generated and sent to the relevant personnel, wherein the third control notice includes taking construction method adjustment, advanced long pipe shed pre-support method and groundwater energy release and pressure reduction method; When the advanced geological forecast shows that the water richness of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is higher than the second preset water richness threshold, a fourth control notice is generated and sent to the relevant personnel. The fourth control notice includes taking construction method adjustment, advanced long pipe shed pre-support method, groundwater energy release and pressure reduction method and grouting reinforcement method.

8. The method for dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control of water and mud inrush according to claim 7 is characterized in that: After dynamically evaluating the risk of water and mud inrush after regulation by using the dynamic risk assessment model to obtain the dynamic risk assessment level, the method further includes: Determining whether the dynamic risk assessment level is higher than a third preset level; If the dynamic risk assessment level is higher than the third preset level, a control scheme change notification is generated and sent to the relevant personnel, and the dynamic risk assessment model is used to dynamically assess the risk of sudden water and mud after re-adjustment until the dynamic risk assessment is lower than or equal to the third preset level.

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