Two-dimensional drought disaster assessment method and system driven by hydrological cycle variation

Abstract

The invention provides a two-dimensional drought disaster assessment method and system driven by hydrological cycle variation, and belongs to the technical field of hydrological disaster assessment. The two-dimensional drought disaster assessment method driven by hydrological cycle variation comprises the following steps: acquiring historical evolution data of a specific region; analyzing climate influence data according to the historical climate data and the historical drought disaster occurrence data; determining human activity influence data according to the historical natural region area data, the historical human activity region area data and the historical drought disaster occurrence data; calculating drought disaster assessment data according to the climate influence data, the human activity influence data and preset initial assessment value data, and determining disaster prevention strategy suggestion data according to the drought disaster assessment data; by adopting the scheme, the drought disaster can be predicted, and the influence of the disaster is reduced.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the technical field of hydrological disaster assessment, and particularly relates to a two-dimensional drought disaster assessment method and system driven by hydrological cycle variation. Background Art

[0002] Drought disasters are relatively common natural disasters that can seriously affect food security, water resources, and ecological security. Generally speaking, the drought situation in a certain area is affected by human activities, such as over-exploitation of water resources or severe damage to forest vegetation, etc., which will all exacerbate the severity of drought disasters. At present, with the development and progress of society, people have realized the necessity of protecting nature. However, for some specific areas, there are natural areas and human activity areas. When necessary human activities occur, it is inevitable to affect the natural area, thus affecting the possibility of drought disasters. Therefore, it is very necessary to regularly conduct drought disaster assessments for such areas. Summary of the Invention

[0003] This application provides a two-dimensional drought disaster assessment method and system driven by hydrological cycle variation, which can realize the prediction of drought disasters and reduce the impact of drought disasters.

[0004] In the first aspect, this application provides a two-dimensional drought disaster assessment method driven by hydrological cycle variation. The method includes: Obtain historical evolution data of a specific area; the historical evolution data includes historical climate data, historical natural area data, historical human activity area data, and historical drought disaster occurrence data; the historical climate data includes historical rainfall data; the historical drought disaster occurrence data includes historical drought disaster frequency data; Analyze climate impact data based on the historical climate data and the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the climate impact data correlates the historical rainfall data and the historical drought disaster frequency data; Determine human activity impact data based on the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; the human activity impact data correlates the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; Calculate drought disaster assessment data based on the climate impact data, the human activity impact data, and preset initial assessment value data, and determine disaster prevention strategy recommendation data based on the drought disaster assessment data.

[0005] Further, the analyzing climate impact data based on the historical climate data and the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the climate impact data correlates the historical rainfall data and the historical drought disaster frequency data includes: Determine historical drought rainfall data based on the historical rainfall data; the historical drought rainfall data is the historical rainfall data corresponding to the occurrence of drought disasters during a preset historical time period; Obtain the rainfall data for the time period to be evaluated, and calculate rainfall difference data based on the rainfall data and the historical drought rainfall data; Determine rainfall impact probability data based on the rainfall difference data and a preset difference probability table; Determine historical frequency data based on the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the historical frequency data is the historical drought disaster frequency data corresponding to the preset historical time period; Analyze climate impact data based on the rainfall data, the rainfall impact data, and the historical frequency data.

[0006] Furthermore, the calculation method of the climate impact data includes: Suppose there are n historical time periods, then the rainfall impact probability data for the i-th historical time period is , and the historical frequency data corresponding to the i-th historical time period is ; the average frequency data determined based on the historical frequency data corresponding to n historical time periods is ; ; In the formula, is the climate impact data, is the rainfall data.

[0007] Furthermore, determine human activity impact data based on the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; the human activity impact data associated with the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data includes: Determine the historical natural area of the first preset historical time period and the historical natural area of the n-th preset historical time period among n preset historical time periods based on the historical natural area data; then the natural area change data ; where the n-th preset historical time period is the historical time period farthest from the current moment, and the first preset historical time period is the historical time period closest to the current moment; Determine the historical human activity area of the first preset historical time period and the historical human activity area of the n-th preset historical time period among n preset historical time periods based on the historical human activity area data; then the human activity area change data ; Then the human activity impact data is calculated as follows: .

[0008] Furthermore, the calculation method of the drought disaster assessment data is: ; In the formula, is the drought disaster assessment data, is the preset initial assessment value data, is the climate impact data, is the human activity impact data.

[0009] In a second aspect, the present application provides a two-dimensional drought disaster assessment system driven by hydrological cycle variation, and the system includes: An acquisition module, configured to acquire historical evolution data of a specific area; the historical evolution data includes historical climate data, historical natural area data, historical human activity area data, and historical drought disaster occurrence data; the historical climate data includes historical rainfall data; the historical drought disaster occurrence data includes historical drought disaster frequency data; An analysis module, configured to analyze climate impact data according to the historical climate data and the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the climate impact data is associated with the historical rainfall data and the historical drought disaster frequency data; A determination module, configured to determine human activity impact data according to the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; the human activity impact data is associated with the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; A calculation module, configured to calculate drought disaster assessment data according to the climate impact data, the human activity impact data, and the preset initial assessment value data, and determine disaster prevention strategy recommendation data according to the drought disaster assessment data.

[0010] Furthermore, the analysis module is further configured to analyze climate impact data according to the historical climate data and the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the climate impact data associated with the historical rainfall data and the historical drought disaster frequency data includes: Determine historical drought rainfall data according to the historical rainfall data; the historical drought rainfall data is the historical rainfall data corresponding to the occurrence of drought disasters within a preset historical time period; Obtain rainfall data of the time period to be evaluated, and calculate rainfall difference data according to the rainfall data and the historical drought rainfall data; Determine rainfall impact probability data according to the rainfall difference data and a preset difference probability table; Determine historical frequency data based on the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the historical frequency data is the historical drought disaster frequency data corresponding to the preset historical time period. Analyze climate impact data based on the rainfall data, the rainfall impact data, and the historical frequency data.

[0011] Further, the analysis module is further configured such that the calculation method of the climate impact data includes: If there are n historical time periods, then the rainfall impact probability data for the i-th historical time period is , and the historical frequency data corresponding to the i-th historical time period is ; the average frequency data determined based on the historical frequency data corresponding to n historical time periods is ; ; In the formula, is the climate impact data, is the rainfall data.

[0012] Further, the determination module is further configured to determine human activity impact data based on the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; the association of the human activity impact data with the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data includes: Determine the historical natural area of the first preset historical time period and the historical natural area of the n-th preset historical time period among n preset historical time periods according to the historical natural area data; then the natural area change data ; where the n-th preset historical time period is the historical time period farthest from the current moment, and the first preset historical time period is the historical time period closest to the current moment; Determine the historical human activity area of the first preset historical time period and the historical human activity area of the n-th preset historical time period among n preset historical time periods according to the historical human activity area data; then the human activity area change data ; Then the calculation method of the human activity impact data is .

[0013] Further, the calculation module is further configured such that the calculation method of the drought disaster assessment data is: ; In the formula, is drought disaster assessment data, is preset initial assessment value data, is climate impact data, is human activity impact data.

[0014] It should be understood that the content described in the invention content part is not intended to limit the key or important features of the embodiments of the present application, nor to limit the scope of the present application. Other features of the present application will become easily understood through the following description. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0015] In combination with the accompanying drawings and with reference to the following detailed description, the above and other features, advantages and aspects of the embodiments of the present application will become more obvious. In the drawings, the same or similar reference numerals represent the same or similar elements, where: Figure 1 shows a flowchart of a two-dimensional drought disaster assessment method driven by hydrological cycle variation in an embodiment of the present application; Figure 2 shows a block diagram of a two-dimensional drought disaster assessment system driven by hydrological cycle variation in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0016] To make the objectives, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are some, but not all, of the embodiments of the present application. All other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts based on the embodiments in the present application belong to the scope of protection of the present application.

[0017] In addition, the term "and / or" in this article is only a description of the association relationship of associated objects, indicating that there can be three relationships. For example, A and / or B can represent: A exists alone, A and B exist simultaneously, and B exists alone. In addition, the character " / " in this article generally represents an "or" relationship between the associated objects before and after.

[0018] The present application provides a two-dimensional drought disaster assessment method and system driven by hydrological cycle variation, which can reduce the impact of drought disasters.

[0019] In a first aspect, the present application provides a two-dimensional drought disaster assessment method driven by hydrological cycle variation. Referring to Figure 1 , the specific steps included in the method are as follows.

[0020] Step S110: Obtain historical evolution data of a specific area; the historical evolution data includes historical climate data, historical natural area data, historical human activity area data, and historical drought disaster occurrence data; the historical climate data includes historical rainfall data; the historical drought disaster occurrence data includes historical drought disaster frequency data.

[0021] In the embodiments of the present application, a specific area refers to an area that includes human activity areas and natural areas. Pure human activity areas, such as cities, or pure natural areas, such as deep mountains and old forests, are not within the scope of this solution; and in this solution, the specific area involves the situation where human activities encroach on natural areas over time and cause damage to vegetation, natural water resources, etc.

[0022] Step S120: Analyze climate impact data based on the historical climate data and the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the climate impact data correlates the historical rainfall data and the historical drought disaster frequency data.

[0023] In the embodiments of the present application, analyzing climate impact data based on the historical climate data and the historical drought disaster occurrence data specifically includes determining historical drought rainfall data according to the historical rainfall data; the historical drought rainfall data is the historical rainfall data corresponding to the occurrence of drought disasters within a preset historical time period; obtaining rainfall data for the to-be-evaluated time period, and calculating rainfall difference data based on the rainfall data and the historical drought rainfall data; determining rainfall impact probability data according to the rainfall difference data and a preset difference probability table; determining historical frequency data according to the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the historical frequency data is the historical drought disaster frequency data corresponding to the preset historical time period; analyzing climate impact data based on the rainfall data, the rainfall impact data, and the historical frequency data.

[0024] Specifically, the calculation method of climate impact data includes: Suppose there are n historical time periods, then the rainfall impact probability data for the i-th historical time period is , and the historical frequency data corresponding to the i-th historical time period is ; the average frequency data determined according to the historical frequency data corresponding to n historical time periods is ; ; In the formula, is the climate impact data, is the rainfall data.

[0025] It can be understood that when conducting a drought disaster assessment for a specific area, a certain time range is selected to evaluate the drought disaster situation in the specific area within this range, and then corresponding treatment measure suggestions are given.

[0026] Step S130: Determine human activity impact data based on the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; the human activity impact data is associated with the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data.

[0027] In the embodiment of the present application, determining the human activity impact data based on the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data specifically includes determining the historical natural area of the first preset historical time period among n preset historical time periods according to the historical natural area data and the historical natural area of the nth preset historical time period ; then the natural area change data ; where the nth preset historical time period is the historical time period farthest from the current moment, and the first preset historical time period is the historical time period closest to the current moment; determining the historical human activity area of the first preset historical time period among n preset historical time periods according to the historical human activity area data and the historical human activity area of the nth preset historical time period ; then the human activity area change data ; then the human activity impact data is calculated as .

[0028] Step S140: Calculate drought disaster assessment data based on the climate impact data, the human activity impact data, and the preset initial assessment value data, and determine disaster prevention strategy suggestion data according to the drought disaster assessment data.

[0029] In the embodiment of the present application, the calculation method of the drought disaster assessment data is: ; In the formula, is the drought disaster assessment data, is the preset initial assessment value data, is the climate impact data, is the human activity impact data.

[0030] It can be understood that after obtaining the drought disaster assessment data, the drought disaster level data is determined according to the drought disaster assessment data and the preset disaster level table, and the disaster prevention strategy suggestion data is determined based on the drought disaster level data.

[0031] It should be noted that for the foregoing method embodiments, for the sake of simple description, they are all expressed as a series of action combinations. However, those skilled in the art should know that this application is not limited by the described action sequence, because according to the embodiments of this application, certain steps can be performed in other sequences or simultaneously. Secondly, those skilled in the art should also know that the embodiments described in the specification are all optional embodiments, and the actions and modules involved are not necessarily essential to this application.

[0032] In a second aspect, this application provides a two-dimensional drought disaster assessment system driven by hydrological cycle variation. As Figure 2 shown, the system includes an acquisition module 210 for acquiring historical evolution data of a specific area; the historical evolution data includes historical climate data, historical natural area data, historical human activity area data, and historical drought disaster occurrence data; the historical climate data includes historical rainfall data; the historical drought disaster occurrence data includes historical drought disaster frequency data; an analysis module 220 for analyzing climate impact data according to the historical climate data and the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the climate impact data is associated with the historical rainfall data and the historical drought disaster frequency data; a determination module 230 for determining human activity impact data according to the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; the human activity impact data is associated with the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; a calculation module 240 for calculating drought disaster assessment data according to the climate impact data, the human activity impact data, and preset initial assessment value data, and determining disaster prevention strategy recommendation data according to the drought disaster assessment data.

[0033] Further, the analysis module 220 is further configured to analyze climate impact data according to the historical climate data and the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the climate impact data being associated with the historical rainfall data and the historical drought disaster frequency data includes: determining historical drought rainfall data according to the historical rainfall data; the historical drought rainfall data being the historical rainfall data corresponding to the occurrence of drought disasters within a preset historical time period; acquiring rainfall data for the period to be evaluated, and calculating rainfall difference data according to the rainfall data and the historical drought rainfall data; determining rainfall impact probability data according to the rainfall difference data and a preset difference probability table; determining historical frequency data according to the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the historical frequency data being the historical drought disaster frequency data corresponding to the preset historical time period; analyzing climate impact data according to the rainfall data, the rainfall impact data, and the historical frequency data.

[0034] Further, the calculation method of the climate impact data includes: Suppose there are n historical time periods, then the rainfall impact probability data of the i-th historical time period is , and the historical frequency data corresponding to the i-th historical time period is ; The average frequency data determined according to the historical frequency data corresponding to n historical time periods is ; ; In the formula, is the climate impact data, is the rainfall data.

[0035] Further, the determining module 230 is further configured to determine the human activity impact data according to the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; The association of the human activity impact data with the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data includes determining the historical natural area of the first preset historical time period and the historical natural area of the n-th preset historical time period among n preset historical time periods according to the historical natural area data; Then the natural area change data ; Among them, the n-th preset historical time period is the historical time period farthest from the current moment, and the first preset historical time period is the historical time period closest to the current moment; Determine the historical human activity area of the first preset historical time period and the historical human activity area of the n-th preset historical time period among n preset historical time periods according to the historical human activity area data; Then the human activity area change data ; Then the calculation method of the human activity impact data is .

[0036] Further, the calculation module 240 is further configured to calculate the drought disaster assessment data as follows: ; In the formula, is the drought disaster assessment data, is the preset initial assessment value data, is the climate impact data, is the human activity impact data.

[0037] Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that for the convenience and simplicity of description, the specific working process of the described device can refer to the corresponding process in the foregoing method embodiment, and will not be elaborated herein.

[0038] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present application and an explanation of the technical principles applied. Those skilled in the art should understand that the scope of disclosure involved in the present application is not limited to the technical solutions formed by the specific combination of the above technical features, but should also cover other technical solutions formed by any combination of the above technical features or their equivalent features without departing from the foregoing disclosure concept. For example, the technical solutions formed by mutually replacing the above features with the technical features (but not limited to) having similar functions disclosed in the present application.

Claims

1. A two-dimensional drought disaster assessment method driven by hydrological cycle variation, characterized in that, Including: Obtaining historical evolution data of a specific area; the historical evolution data includes historical climate data, historical natural area data, historical human activity area data, and historical drought disaster occurrence data; the historical climate data includes historical rainfall data; the historical drought disaster occurrence data includes historical drought disaster frequency data; Analyzing climate impact data according to the historical climate data and the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the climate impact data correlates the historical rainfall data and the historical drought disaster frequency data; Determining human activity impact data according to the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; the human activity impact data correlates the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; Calculating drought disaster assessment data according to the climate impact data, the human activity impact data, and preset initial assessment value data, and determining disaster prevention strategy recommendation data according to the drought disaster assessment data.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The analyzing climate impact data according to the historical climate data and the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the climate impact data correlates the historical rainfall data and the historical drought disaster frequency data includes: Determining historical drought rainfall data according to the historical rainfall data; the historical drought rainfall data is the historical rainfall data corresponding to the occurrence of drought disasters within a preset historical time period; Obtaining rainfall data of a time period to be evaluated, and calculating rainfall difference data according to the rainfall data and the historical drought rainfall data; Determining rainfall impact probability data according to the rainfall difference data and a preset difference probability table; Determining historical frequency data according to the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the historical frequency data is the historical drought disaster frequency data corresponding to the preset historical time period; Analyzing climate impact data according to the rainfall data, the rainfall impact data, and the historical frequency data.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that, The calculation method of the climate impact data includes: Assume there are n historical time periods, then the rainfall influence probability data for the i-th historical time period is , and the historical frequency data corresponding to the i-th historical time period is ; The average frequency data determined according to the historical frequency data corresponding to n historical time periods is ; ； In the formula, is climate impact data, is rainfall data.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The determining human activity impact data according to the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; the human activity impact data correlates the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data includes: Determine the historical natural area of the first preset historical time period among the n preset historical time periods according to the historical natural area data and the historical natural area of the nth preset historical time period ; then the natural area change data ; where the nth preset historical time period is the historical time period farthest from the current moment, and the first preset historical time period is the historical time period closest to the current moment; Determine the historical human activity area of the first preset historical time period among the n preset historical time periods according to the historical human activity area data and the historical human activity area of the nth preset historical time period ; then the human activity area change data ; Then the calculation method of the human activity impact data is as follows: .

5. The method according to claim 4, wherein The calculation method of the drought disaster assessment data is: ； In the formula, is the drought disaster assessment data, is the preset initial assessment value data, is the climate impact data, is the human activity impact data.

6. A two-dimensional drought disaster assessment system driven by hydrological cycle variation, characterized in that, Including: An obtaining module (210) for obtaining historical evolution data of a specific area; the historical evolution data includes historical climate data, historical natural area data, historical human activity area data, and historical drought disaster occurrence data; the historical climate data includes historical rainfall data; the historical drought disaster occurrence data includes historical drought disaster frequency data; An analyzing module (220) for analyzing climate impact data according to the historical climate data and the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the climate impact data correlates the historical rainfall data and the historical drought disaster frequency data; A determination module (230) for determining human activity impact data based on the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; the human activity impact data is associated with the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; A calculation module (240) for calculating drought disaster assessment data based on the climate impact data, the human activity impact data, and preset initial assessment value data, and determining disaster prevention strategy recommendation data based on the drought disaster assessment data.

7. The system according to claim 6, wherein The analysis module (220) is further configured to analyze climate impact data based on the historical climate data and the historical drought disaster occurrences; the climate impact data is associated with the historical rainfall data and the historical drought disaster frequency data, including: Determining historical drought rainfall data according to the historical rainfall data; the historical drought rainfall data is the historical rainfall data corresponding to the occurrence of drought disasters within a preset historical time period; Obtaining rainfall data for the period to be evaluated, and calculating rainfall difference data based on the rainfall data and the historical drought rainfall data; Determining rainfall impact probability data according to the rainfall difference data and a preset difference probability table; Determining historical frequency data according to the historical drought disaster occurrence data; the historical frequency data is the historical drought disaster frequency data corresponding to the preset historical time period; Analyzing climate impact data based on the rainfall data, the rainfall impact data, and the historical frequency data.

8. The system according to claim 7, wherein The analysis module (220) is further configured to, the calculation method of the climate impact data includes: Suppose there are n historical time periods, then the rainfall influence probability data for the i-th historical time period is , and the historical frequency data corresponding to the i-th historical time period is ; the average frequency data determined according to the historical frequency data corresponding to n historical time periods is ; ； In the formula, is climate impact data, is rainfall data.

9. The system according to claim 8, wherein The determination module (230) is further configured to, determining human activity impact data according to the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data; the human activity impact data is associated with the historical natural area data and the historical human activity area data, including: Determine the historical natural area of the first preset historical time period among the n preset historical time periods according to the historical natural area data and the historical natural area of the nth preset historical time period ; then the natural area change data ; where the nth preset historical time period is the historical time period farthest from the current moment, and the first preset historical time period is the historical time period closest to the current moment; Determine the historical human activity area of the first preset historical time period among the n preset historical time periods according to the historical human activity area data and the historical human activity area of the nth preset historical time period ; then the human activity area change data ; Then the calculation method of the human activity impact data is as follows, .

10. The system according to claim 9, wherein The calculation module (240) is further configured to, the calculation method of the drought disaster assessment data is: ； In the formula, is the drought disaster assessment data, is the preset initial assessment value data, is the climate impact data, is the human activity impact data.

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