Method and device for calculating and evaluating maturity of key technology of equipment system based on entropy weight

Abstract

The invention discloses an equipment system key technology maturity calculation and evaluation method and device based on entropy weight, and belongs to the technical maturity evaluation field, and the method comprises the steps: locally formulating key technology maturity and system integration maturity standards; constructing a system key technology weight matrix and an integrated maturity matrix; calculating an entropy matrix corresponding to each weight according to the key technology weight matrix; normalizing the system entropy matrix; performing weighting processing on the system integration maturity matrix to obtain a weighted equipment system integration maturity matrix; calculating a final technical maturity matrix of the system; performing weighted summation on the final technical maturity matrix of the system; and checking the consistency of the final technical maturity matrix evaluation result of the system, and if the deviation in the evaluation result is higher than a reference value, re-checking to construct the weight matrix for calculation. According to the method, the deviation caused by single technology maturity evaluation can be avoided, and the calculation evaluation result can better reflect the actual maturity of the whole equipment system.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of technology readiness assessment, and more specifically, to a method and device for calculating and evaluating the critical technology readiness of an equipment system based on entropy weight. Background Art

[0002] In recent years, with the continuous update and expansion of the application requirements of various equipment systems, the research and development of equipment systems have gradually shown characteristics such as complex structure, large number of new technologies, strong advancement, long project development cycle, huge investment, and great influence. The above characteristics determine the high risk of project development. The technology readiness in the process of equipment system research and development is closely related to equipment development. Therefore, in the research and development of equipment systems, phenomena such as cost overruns, schedule delays, and degradation of equipment system performance indicators due to the low technology readiness of the applied technologies are widespread, which has become a difficult problem in the research and development of equipment systems. Technology readiness is a measurement method to measure the degree to which the technical state meets the expected development goals of a project, and the technology readiness level refers to a standard for measuring and evaluating the maturity level.

[0003] Currently, there are mainly the following methods for technology readiness assessment: 1) Technology Readiness Level method (TRL), which describes technology readiness as the state of technology at different development stages. At present, this method is the most widely used method. However, this method also has the problem that when determining the technology readiness level, the subjective factor is the main one, and it only evaluates the maturity from the technology itself, with a single index and lack of comprehensiveness; 2) Technical bibliometric method, which mainly describes and judges the technology development state by statistically analyzing technical literature materials. There may be the following problems in using literature data to study technology readiness: First, due to factors such as commercial or military secrecy and property rights, it is impossible to ensure that all materials of a certain technology are publicly available, resulting in uncertainty in judgment; second, technical literature data may be ahead or lagging; third, the source of literature data is unreliable; 3) Technical patent analysis method, which divides the technology development into four stages: germination period, growth period, maturity period, and decline period, and through a large number of patent analyses, uses the relationships between the evolution of the technology system and system performance, patent level, patent quantity, etc. for predicting the technology readiness of the system. This method has similar problems to the technical bibliometric method; 4) Technical performance measurement method, which extracts descriptive indicators from the technology itself and judges and evaluates the current technology readiness or predicts the future development status of the technology through existing data. In this method, the mathematical model constructed has a great influence on the prediction accuracy of the result, and the mathematical calculation requirements are relatively high. Therefore, this type of method has less research and application.

[0004] Since the technology readiness assessment usually only targets individual independent technologies, it is impossible to conduct a systematic technology readiness assessment for large weapon equipment systems involving multiple key technologies and objectively reflect their technology integration effects. In modern weapon equipment systems, multi-system interactions are extensive. The system technology readiness is not only related to the technology readiness of the independent parts of the involved systems but also depends on the technology readiness of the integration between the parts. Therefore, comprehensively considering individual key technologies, system composition, the interaction of different technology interfaces, influence effects, and technology readiness from the perspective of system integration is crucial for truly reflecting the maturity of the entire equipment system. Currently, there is no general method for assessing system technology readiness at home and abroad. The main methods used include the system maturity matrix method, the weighting method, the technology readiness factor method, etc. The system maturity matrix method can reflect the associations between the key technologies of the equipment system but cannot reflect the importance of its key technologies in the entire equipment system and the subjective weights of the review experts. Therefore, it cannot reflect the technology readiness of the entire system. The weighting method can reflect the importance of each key technology in the entire equipment system but cannot reflect the connections between the key technologies. The technology readiness factor method can reflect the gap in technology readiness between the equipment system and the target requirements but cannot represent the situation of the technology readiness value of the equipment system. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies of the prior art and provide a method and device for calculating and evaluating the maturity of key technologies of an equipment system based on entropy weight, which improves the rationality of the assessment of the technology readiness of the equipment system, ensures the effectiveness and reliability of the assessment results, can avoid the deviation caused by the assessment of individual technology readiness, and the calculated assessment results can better reflect the actual maturity of the entire equipment system.

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is achieved through the following solutions:

[0007] A method for calculating and evaluating the maturity of key technologies of an equipment system based on entropy weight, comprising:

[0008] S1: Locally formulate the standards for the maturity of key technologies and system integration maturity;

[0009] S2: Construct the weight matrix of system key technologies and the integration maturity matrix;

[0010] S3: Calculate the entropy matrix corresponding to each weight according to the weight matrix of key technologies;

[0011] S4: Normalize the system entropy matrix;

[0012] S5: Perform weighted processing on the system integration maturity matrix to obtain the weighted integration maturity matrix of the equipment system;

[0013] S6: Calculate the final technology maturity matrix of the system;

[0014] S7: Weighted sum of the final technology maturity matrix of the system;

[0015] S8: Conduct consistency test on the evaluation results of the final technology maturity matrix of the system. If the deviation in the evaluation results is higher than the reference value, re - examine and reconstruct the weight matrix for calculation.

[0016] Furthermore, in step S1, the localization of formulating the key technology maturity and system integration maturity standards specifically includes the following sub - steps:

[0017] Compare with the technology maturity standard, complete the localization conversion of the single - item key technology maturity and system integration maturity levels, and obtain the single - item key technology maturity evaluation matrix T according to the specifically formulated localization technology maturity level standard.

[0018] Furthermore, in step S2, the construction of the system key technology weight matrix and the integration maturity matrix specifically includes the following sub - steps:

[0019] Based on the localized maturity level definition, evaluate the mutual relationship between the key technologies of the equipment system to obtain the integration maturity matrix; assume that in the evaluation of the key technology maturity of the equipment system, there are m experts and a total of n key technologies. According to the analytic hierarchy process, the expert weight matrix is: S E =[S E1 , S E2 ,…S Em , determine the key technology weight matrix, and obtain:

[0020]

[0021] where S ij represents the weight of the j - th key technology evaluated by the i - th expert, and The system integration maturity matrix w determined by the i - th expert is:

[0022]

[0023] Furthermore, in step S3, the calculation of the entropy matrix corresponding to each weight according to the key technology weight matrix specifically includes sub - steps:

[0024] According to the key technology weight matrix S, calculate the entropy matrix corresponding to each weight, and obtain E={e ij i = 1,2…m,j = 1,2…n}, where:

[0025]

[0026] The amount of information represented by each technology is expressed by information entropy. The closer the decision-making results of each expert are, the greater the entropy value of the key technology weight matrix.

[0027] Further, in step S4, the normalization of the system entropy matrix specifically includes the following sub-steps:

[0028] According to the definition of the maximum entropy of the system, each element in the entropy matrix E is normalized to obtain: E' = {e' ij i = 1, 2…n, j = 1, 2…m}, where

[0029]

[0030] The entropy matrix E' is normalized row by row to obtain the key technology weight matrix E” = {e' ij '|i = 1, 2…n, j = 1, 2…m}, where

[0031]

[0032] The matrix w determined by the i-th expert is fused with the entropy weight of the key technology to obtain:

[0033]

[0034] Further, in step S5, the weighted equipment system integration maturity matrix is specifically w s :

[0035] Further, in step S6, the calculation of the final technology maturity matrix of the system specifically includes the following sub-steps:

[0036] The evaluation result of the final technology maturity of the system is related to the single technology maturity and the integration maturity matrix, that is, the matrix S = w s ×T = [s1, s2, … s n T .

[0037] Further, in step S7, the weighted summation of the final maturity matrix of the system is specifically calculated using the following formula:

[0038]

[0039] In the formula, k i represents the number of pairwise integrations between key technologies in the i-th row of the w s matrix.

[0040] ​An apparatus for calculating and evaluating the maturity of key technologies of an equipment system based on entropy weight, comprising a processor and a memory, wherein a computer program is stored in the memory, and when the computer program is loaded by the processor, the method described in any one of the above is executed.

[0041] The beneficial effects of the present invention include:

[0042] The method of the present invention introduces the information entropy theory. By evaluating the weight of individual technologies in the equipment system and integrating the expert weight, it adopts the way of subjective and objective assignment to comprehensively evaluate the integration between subsystems and the maturity state of the whole system, improves the rationality of the evaluation of the technical maturity of the equipment system, and finally ensures the effectiveness and reliability of the evaluation result through the consistency verification of the evaluation result. This method can avoid the deviation brought by the evaluation of individual technology maturity, and the calculated evaluation result can better reflect the actual maturity of the whole equipment system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0043] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the following will briefly introduce the drawings required for the description of the embodiments or the prior art. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those of ordinary skill in the art, without creative efforts, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings.

[0044] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of the steps of the method in the embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0045] All features disclosed in all embodiments in this specification, or all steps in any disclosed methods or processes, except for mutually exclusive features and / or steps, can be combined and / or extended and / or replaced in any way.

[0046] The concept of the present invention is as follows: Aiming at the deficiencies of the existing methods for calculating and evaluating the maturity of key technologies of an equipment system, based on the maturity matrix algorithm and the evaluation of the maturity of individual key technologies of TRL, and considering the interface, performance and adaptability impacts in the process of equipment system technology integration, a scheme for calculating and evaluating the maturity of key technologies of an equipment system based on entropy weight is proposed. This scheme introduces the information entropy theory. By evaluating the weight of individual technologies in the equipment system and integrating the expert weight, it adopts the way of subjective plus objective assignment to comprehensively evaluate the integration between subsystems and the maturity state of the whole system, improves the rationality of the evaluation of the technical maturity of the equipment system, and finally ensures the effectiveness and reliability of the evaluation result through the consistency verification of the evaluation result. This method can avoid the deviation brought by the evaluation of individual technology maturity, and the calculated evaluation result can better reflect the actual maturity of the whole equipment system.

[0047] In a preferred embodiment, as Figure 1 shown, a method for calculating and evaluating the maturity of key technologies of an equipment system based on entropy weight is specifically provided, including the following steps:

[0048] Step 101: Localize the formulation of the key technology maturity and system integration maturity standards. Referring to the commonly used 9-level technology maturity standard in the national standard, complete the localization conversion of the single key technology maturity and system integration maturity levels, and according to the specifically formulated localization technology maturity level standard, obtain the single key technology maturity evaluation matrix T;

[0049] Step 102: Construct the system key technology weight matrix and integration maturity matrix. Experts evaluate the mutual relationship between the key technologies of the equipment system according to the localized maturity level definition, and obtain the integration maturity matrix. Assuming that in the evaluation of the key technology maturity of the equipment system, there are m experts and a total of n key technologies, according to the analytic hierarchy process, the weight matrix of the experts is obtained as: S E =[S E1 , S E2 ,…S Em , and the evaluating experts, based on their engineering experience, comprehensively consider factors such as the existing technical status, development trend, innovation, importance, difficulty of implementation, and risk of the key technologies, determine the key technology weight matrix, and obtain:

[0050]

[0051] Among them, S ij represents the weight of the jth key technology evaluated by the ith expert, and The system integration maturity matrix w determined by the ith expert is:

[0052]

[0053] Step 103: According to the key technology weight matrix S, calculate the entropy matrix corresponding to each weight, and obtain E = {e ij i = 1, 2…m, j = 1, 2…n}, where

[0054]

[0055] The information entropy is used to represent the amount of information represented by each technology. The closer the decision results of each expert are, the greater the entropy value of the key technology weight matrix;

[0056] Step 104: Normalize the system entropy matrix. According to the definition of the maximum entropy of the system, normalize each element in the entropy matrix E to obtain: E' = {e' ij i = 1, 2…n, j = 1, 2…m}, where,

[0057]

[0058] Row - by - row normalization of the entropy matrix E' gives the key - technology weight matrix E”={e' ij '|i = 1,2…n,j = 1,2…m}, where

[0059]

[0060] Therefore, the entropy weight of the matrix w for the key technologies determined by the i - th expert is:

[0061]

[0062] Step 105: Weighted processing of the system integration maturity matrix to obtain the weighted equipment system integration maturity matrix w s It is:

[0063] Step 106: Calculation of the system final technology maturity matrix. The evaluation result of the system final technology maturity is related to the single - technology maturity and the integration maturity matrix, that is, the matrix S = w s ×T=[s1,s2,…s n T ;

[0064] Step 107: Weighted summation of the system final maturity matrix, obtaining:

[0065]

[0066] In the formula, k i represents the number of pairwise integrations between key technologies in the i - th row of the w s matrix;

[0067] Step 108: Consistency check of the evaluation result of the system technology maturity matrix. If there are large deviations in the evaluation results, re - examine and reconstruct the weight matrix for calculation.

[0068] The units involved in the embodiments of the present invention can be implemented in software or in hardware, and the described units can also be set in the processor. Among them, the names of these units do not constitute a limitation to the unit itself in some cases.

[0069] According to one aspect of the embodiments of the present invention, a computer program product or a computer program is provided. The computer program product or the computer program includes computer instructions, and the computer instructions are stored in a computer - readable storage medium. The processor of the computer device reads the computer instructions from the computer - readable storage medium, and the processor executes the computer instructions, so that the computer device executes the methods provided in the above various alternative implementation manners. ​

[0070] As another aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable medium, which may be included in the electronic device described in the above embodiment; or may exist alone without being assembled into the electronic device. The above computer-readable medium carries one or more programs, and when the one or more programs are executed by an electronic device, the electronic device implements the method described in the above embodiment.

Claims

1. A method for calculating and evaluating the critical technology maturity of an equipment system based on entropy weight, characterized in that, Including: S1: Locally formulate the maturity standards for key technologies and system integration maturity; S2: Construct the weight matrix of system key technologies and the integration maturity matrix; S3: According to the weight matrix of key technologies, calculate the entropy matrix corresponding to each weight; S4: Normalize the system entropy matrix; S5: Perform weighted processing on the system integration maturity matrix to obtain the weighted equipment system integration maturity matrix; S6: Calculate the final technology maturity matrix of the system; S7: Perform weighted summation on the final technology maturity matrix of the system; S8: Conduct consistency verification on the evaluation results of the final technology maturity matrix of the system. If the deviation in the evaluation results is higher than the reference value, re-approve and construct the weight matrix for calculation.

2. The method for calculating and evaluating the critical technology maturity of an equipment system based on entropy weight according to claim 1, wherein In step S1, the local formulation of the maturity standards for key technologies and system integration maturity specifically includes the following sub-steps: Compare with the technology maturity standard, complete the local conversion of the maturity levels of individual key technologies and system integration maturity, and obtain the evaluation matrix T of the maturity of individual key technologies according to the specifically formulated local technology maturity level standard.

3. The method for calculating and evaluating the critical technology maturity of an equipment system based on entropy weight according to claim 2, characterized in that In step S2, the construction of the weight matrix of system key technologies and the integration maturity matrix specifically includes the following sub-steps: According to the defined maturity level of localization, evaluate the interrelationships among the key technologies of the equipment system to obtain the integration maturity matrix. Suppose there are m experts in the evaluation of the maturity of the key technologies of the equipment system, and there are n key technologies in total. According to the analytic hierarchy process, the expert weight matrix is obtained as: S E =[S E1 , S E2 ,…S Em , determine the key technology weight matrix, and obtain: Among them, S ij represents the weight of the j-th key technology evaluated by the i-th expert, and the system integration maturity matrix w determined by the i-th expert is:

4. The method for calculating and evaluating the critical technology maturity of an equipment system based on entropy weight according to claim 3, characterized in that, In step S3, the calculation of the entropy matrix corresponding to each weight according to the weight matrix of key technologies specifically includes sub-steps: According to the key technology weight matrix S, calculate the entropy matrix corresponding to each weight to obtain E = {e ij i = 1, 2... m, j = 1, 2... n}, where: Represent the amount of information represented by each technology through information entropy. The closer the decision-making results of each expert are, the greater the entropy value of the weight matrix of key technologies.

5. The method for calculating and evaluating the critical technology maturity of an equipment system based on entropy weight according to claim 4, characterized in that In step S4, the normalization of the system entropy matrix specifically includes the following sub-steps: According to the definition of the system's maximum entropy, each element in the entropy matrix E is normalized to obtain: E' = {e' ij i = 1, 2…n, j = 1, 2…m}, where The entropy matrix E' is normalized row by row to obtain the key technology weight matrix E” = {e' ij '| i = 1, 2…n, j = 1, 2…m}, where The matrix w determined by the i-th expert is fused with the entropy weight of key technologies to obtain:

6. The method for calculating and evaluating the critical technology maturity of an equipment system based on entropy weight according to claim 5, characterized in that, In step S5, the weighted equipment system integration maturity matrix is specifically w s :

7. The method for calculating and evaluating the critical technology maturity of an equipment system based on entropy weight according to claim 6, characterized in that, In step S6, the calculation of the final technology maturity matrix of the system specifically includes the following sub-steps: The evaluation result of the system's final technology maturity is related to the individual technology maturity and the integration maturity matrix, that is, matrix S = w s × T = [s1, s2, … s n T .​ 8. The method for calculating and evaluating the critical technology maturity of an equipment system based on entropy weight according to claim 7, characterized in that In step S7, the weighted summation of the final maturity matrix of the system is specifically calculated using the following formula: where k i represents the number of pairwise integrations among key technologies in the i-th row of the w s matrix.

9. An apparatus for calculating and evaluating the maturity of key technologies of an equipment system based on entropy weight, characterized in that Including a processor and a memory, where a computer program is stored in the memory, and when the computer program is loaded by the processor, it executes the method according to any one of claims 1 to 8.

Images