A cable joint temperature rise real-time monitoring system applied to a dynamic load environment

Abstract

The application provides a cable joint temperature rise real-time monitoring system applied to a dynamic load environment, and belongs to the technical field of control systems.The monitoring system comprises a load monitoring module, an environment monitoring module, a joint monitoring module, a joint thermal response modeling module and a risk assessment module.By collecting the load parameters and environment data of the cable in real time and obtaining the joint temperature information at a dynamic monitoring frequency, the system can calculate and predict the temperature value according to the temperature rise model established by the joint thermal response modeling module, and compare and analyze the actual temperature.The risk assessment module accumulates and judges the risk value, and generates a warning prompt when the risk value exceeds the preset threshold value.The temperature rise model is constructed based on the multi-condition temperature rise data collected in the laboratory, and is calibrated in the actual scene, and can adapt to the thermal characteristics and aging state of different joint types, so as to realize high-accuracy prediction and risk control of the temperature rise change of the cable joint under complex conditions.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application belongs to the technical field of control, and in particular, relates to a cable joint temperature rise real-time monitoring system applied to a dynamic load environment. BACKGROUND

[0002] In a power system, as a key connection part, the operation safety of a cable joint directly affects the stability of the entire power transmission line. During long-term operation, due to factors such as load fluctuation, contact resistance change, environmental temperature rise, and the like, the cable joint is prone to local overheating, which in turn causes insulation aging, thermal breakdown, and even fire and other serious faults. At present, in engineering, the above-mentioned methods are often used for monitoring, such as periodic manual infrared inspection or installation of simple temperature measuring devices, but the above-mentioned methods often have defects such as response lag, limited coverage, and inability to dynamically evaluate the risk evolution process, and are difficult to meet the needs of modern power grids for intelligent and real-time monitoring. In addition, the cable joint has different thermal response characteristics in different use scenarios, and its temperature rise behavior is not only affected by the current load, but also closely related to the cumulative changes in long-term working conditions, so it is urgent to build an intelligent monitoring system that can evaluate the temperature rise risk in real time by combining actual operating parameters, environmental information, and joint characteristics.

[0003] After consulting relevant public technologies, the technical solution with publication number US20240393271A1 proposes a method for judging the insulation aging degree of a cable T-type connector based on a dynamic heat source, which builds an experimental system that can control the internal heat source of the cable, measures the insulation aging degree model of the cable T-type connector under various working conditions, and thus can be used to evaluate the aging degree of the connector used in the actual application scenario. The technical solution with publication number US10830648B2 proposes an abnormal temperature detection system for detecting abnormal temperature in a cable used for transmitting power to an electrical device, which arranges temperature sensors at two positions inside the cable, thereby evaluating the temperature interval that may exist between the two positions. The technical solution with publication number WO2019229656A1 proposes a detection scheme for detecting the temperature of a cable and related connecting parts, which arranges temperature sensors on the insulation cylinder of the cable connection and detects the internal voltage and current values of the cable, thereby calculating the temperature in the circuit.

[0004] The above technical solutions all propose technical solutions for measuring and monitoring the temperature of cables or related connecting parts, but there are few related technical solutions that mention corresponding compensation strategies for temperature abnormal deviations caused by aging of these components.

[0005] The foregoing discussion of the background art is intended only to facilitate an understanding of the present application. The discussion is not an acknowledgment or admission that any of the material referred to is part of the common general knowledge of those working in the field. SUMMARY

[0006] The application aims to provide a cable joint temperature rise real-time monitoring system applied to a dynamic load environment, which comprises a load monitoring module, an environment monitoring module, a joint monitoring module, a joint thermal response modeling module and a risk assessment module.

[0007] The application adopts the following technical scheme: a cable joint temperature rise real-time monitoring system applied to a dynamic load environment, comprising:

[0008] The load monitoring module is configured to collect multiple power load parameter data in the power transmission environment where the cable is located in real time.

[0009] The environment monitoring module is configured to collect environmental information data of the position where the cable joint is located.

[0010] The joint monitoring module is configured to periodically monitor the temperature of multiple cable joints at a specified monitoring frequency.

[0011] The joint thermal response modeling module is used to establish a temperature rise model of the cable joint.

[0012] The risk assessment module is configured to calculate the risk value of each cable joint based on the use condition of the cable joint and the deviation between the actual detection temperature and the temperature rise model predicted temperature, and generate a warning prompt information when the risk value exceeds a preset threshold.

[0013] The monitoring frequency is dynamically adjusted according to the system running state, load level or environmental condition through an algorithm.

[0014] Preferably, the temperature rise model comprises a thermal resistance parameter factor based on the characteristics of the cable joint and an aging degradation factor varying with the use time.

[0015] Preferably, the risk assessment module comprises the following factors when calculating the growth value of the risk value:

[0016] The time factor makes the longer the cumulative running time of the cable joint, the more gradually the risk value accumulates.

[0017] The load factor makes the risk value accumulation rate increase when the joint is in a high load line section.

[0018] Deviation factor, if the actual temperature of the joint deviates from the calculated value of the temperature rise model by more than a set threshold, the risk value increases by several jump increments.

[0019] Preferably, the monitoring system comprises establishing an independent corresponding temperature rise model for one or more cable joints being monitored; the establishment of the temperature rise model comprises the following steps:

[0020] S100: Under laboratory conditions, collect temperature rise data by setting different working conditions and accelerated aging conditions for different cable joint specifications, and establish a mapping model between multi-characteristic input and temperature rise results as a temperature rise basic model T lab ;

[0021] S200: Based on the actual use scene, parameterize or calibrate the temperature rise basic model T lab , estimate the degradation stage of the joint in combination with the running time, line type and maintenance record of the joint, correct the temperature rise model, and form a temperature rise prediction model applicable to the target joint.

[0022] Preferably, the joint monitoring module comprises one or more temperature measuring sensors arranged on the monitored joint to obtain the real-time temperature of the cable joint.

[0023] The beneficial effects achieved by the present application are:

[0024] 1. The monitoring system of the technical solution fuses multi-source data inputs such as current, voltage, ambient temperature, humidity, etc., constructs a temperature rise model based on the thermal resistance and aging characteristics of the joint, can dynamically reflect the thermal response behavior of the cable joint under different loads and environments, and improves the accuracy and adaptability of temperature rise prediction.

[0025] 2. The monitoring system of the technical solution compares the predicted temperature with the actual monitored temperature, constructs a risk value and dynamically accumulates based on factors such as time, load, deviation, etc., effectively identifies abnormal working conditions and aging trends, and realizes the transition from passive alarm to trend prediction type early warning.

[0026] 3. The temperature rise model proposed by the monitoring system of the technical solution supports two-stage formation through experiment construction and on-site working condition calibration, allows independent model construction for joints of different types and running stages, and has good engineering expansibility and universal deployment capability.

[0027] 4. The software and hardware parts of the monitoring system of the technical solution adopt modular design, and the working modules, components of the hardware part, and the instructions, parameters, algorithms of the software part in the system can be conveniently replaced and / or upgraded later, thereby reducing the construction cost and maintenance cost of the system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0028] The present application can be further understood from the following description in conjunction with the drawings. In the drawings, the components are not necessarily drawn to scale, emphasis instead being placed upon illustrating the principles of the embodiments. In different views, like reference numerals designate corresponding parts throughout the figures.

[0029] BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS: 110 - Load monitoring module; 120 - Environment monitoring module; 130 - Joint monitoring module; 132 - Sensor; 134 - Processing component; 136 - Cable assembly; 138 - Sensor hub; 140 - Joint thermal response modeling module; 142 - Micro control unit; 144 - Sensor connector; 150 - Risk assessment module; 500 - Computing architecture; 502 - Bus; 504 - Processor; 506 - Main memory; 508 - Read only memory; 510 - Storage device; 512 - Display; 514 - Input device; 516 - Cursor control device; 518 - Network device;

[0030] Figure 1 Architecture diagram of the monitoring system described in the embodiments of the present application;

[0031] Figure 2 Architecture diagram of the joint monitoring module described in the embodiments of the present application;

[0032] Figure 3 Computational process diagram of the predicted temperature value in the embodiments of the present application;

[0033] Figure 4 Establishment step diagram of the temperature rise model in the embodiments of the present application;

[0034] Figure 5 Architecture diagram of the computer system employed in the embodiments of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0035] In order to make the technical solutions and advantages of the present application clearer, the present application will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the embodiments thereof. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present application and are not used to limit the present application. Other systems, methods and / or features of the embodiments will become apparent to those skilled in the art upon inspection of the following detailed description. All such additional systems, methods, features and advantages are intended to be included within the scope of the present application. They are included in the scope of the present application and are protected by the appended claims. Additional features of the disclosed embodiments are described in the following detailed description, and will be apparent to those skilled in the art upon inspection of the following detailed description.

[0036] The same or similar reference numerals in the drawings of the embodiments of the present application correspond to the same or similar components; in the description of the present application, it is understood that if the orientations or positional relationships indicated by the terms "upper", "lower", "left", "right" and the like are based on the orientations or positional relationships shown in the drawings, they are only for the convenience of describing the present application and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the devices or components referred to must have a particular orientation. The orientation and operation are constructed in a particular orientation, so the positional relationship described in the drawings is only used for exemplary illustration, and cannot be understood as a limitation on the present patent. For those skilled in the art, the specific meanings of the above terms can be understood according to the specific circumstances.

[0037] Embodiment one: an exemplary cable joint temperature rise real-time monitoring system applied to a dynamic load environment, comprising:

[0038] A load monitoring module configured to collect multiple power load parameter data in the power transmission environment where the cable is located in real time;

[0039] An environment monitoring module configured to collect environmental information data of the location where the cable joint is located;

[0040] A joint monitoring module configured to periodically monitor the temperature of multiple cable joints at a specified monitoring frequency;

[0041] A joint thermal response modeling module for establishing a temperature rise model of the cable joint;

[0042] A risk assessment module configured to calculate a risk value for each cable joint based on the service condition of the cable joint and the deviation between the actual detection temperature and the predicted temperature of the temperature rise model, and generate a warning prompt information when the risk value exceeds a preset threshold;

[0043] Wherein, the monitoring frequency is dynamically adjusted according to the system running state, load level or environmental conditions through an algorithm.

[0044] Preferably, the temperature rise model includes a thermal resistance parameter factor based on the characteristics of the cable joint and an aging degradation factor that changes with the use time.

[0045] Preferably, the risk assessment module includes calculation based on the following factors when calculating the growth value of the risk value:

[0046] A time factor, such that the longer the cumulative running time of the cable joint, the risk value gradually accumulates;

[0047] A load factor, such that when the joint is in a high load line section, the risk value accumulation rate increases;

[0048] A deviation factor, if the actual temperature of the joint deviates from the calculated value of the temperature rise model by more than a set threshold, the risk value increases by a certain jump increment.

[0049] Preferably, the monitoring system comprises establishing an independent corresponding temperature rise model for one or more cable joints being monitored; and the establishing of the temperature rise model comprises the following steps:

[0050] S100: Under laboratory conditions, collecting temperature rise data by setting different working conditions and accelerated aging conditions for different cable joint specifications, and establishing a mapping model between multi-characteristic input and temperature rise results as a temperature rise basic model T lab ;

[0051] S200: Based on the actual use scenario, performing parameter normalization or calibration on the temperature rise basic model T lab , combining the running time of the joint, the line type and the maintenance record, estimating the degradation stage of the joint, correcting the temperature rise model, and forming a temperature rise prediction model applicable to the target joint.

[0052] Preferably, the joint monitoring module comprises one or more temperature measurement sensors arranged on the monitored joint to obtain the real-time temperature of the cable joint.

[0053] For example, as shown in FIG. 1, which is a schematic block diagram of an embodiment of the monitoring system, for illustrating an exemplary embodiment of the monitoring system. The monitoring system can be applied to various power supply and transmission scenarios, such as medium / low voltage distribution cabinets, ring network cabinets of urban power transmission and distribution systems, contact networks of rail transit, various types of data centers and power supply places with high reliability requirements for power supply, various types of micro-grid power generation systems, etc. Figure 1 In the exemplary embodiment, the load monitoring module 110 is used to collect the electrical operating parameters of the power utilization system in which the cable joint is located in real time, so as to comprehensively reflect the electrical load condition of the cable at present, and provide basic data support for the temperature rise evaluation of the cable joint. Preferably, the load monitoring module 110 is arranged in the upstream or adjacent area of the cable where the cable joint is arranged, and can be physically or data-bound with the line section where the joint is arranged.

[0054] Preferably, the load monitoring module 110 comprises a current detection unit, a voltage detection unit, a signal conditioning and conversion unit, and a load data processing unit.

[0055]

[0056] ​The current detection unit is configured to detect the working current flowing through the cable line. Optionally, a Hall sensor, an open-close type mutual inductor or a precision current shunt is used to realize contact or non-contact measurement. The voltage detection unit is configured to collect the voltage signals at both ends of the cable to determine the line voltage level, working state and whether there is voltage abnormality. The analog signals output by the above two detection units are processed by the signal conditioning and conversion unit, including filtering, amplification and analog-digital conversion, etc. to ensure that the obtained data has high dynamic response capability and signal-to-noise ratio.

[0057] Preferably, the load data processing unit can realize real-time analysis and short-time average calculation of the current and voltage data through a microcontroller or an edge processing chip, and output load characteristic indexes such as instantaneous current value, effective value, power factor and frequency. At the same time, the unit supports uploading the above load parameters to the system core module according to the set time period for use by the modeling and risk analysis module.

[0058] Through the deployment of the above load monitoring module 110, the running load state of the key cable section can be comprehensively perceived. The collected data can be used as the basis for evaluation and analysis of the monitoring system.

[0059] In the exemplary embodiment, the environment monitoring module 120 is configured to collect the environmental parameters of the area where the cable joint is located in real time to assist in analyzing the influence of the external thermal environment on the heat dissipation capacity and temperature rise trend of the cable joint. Preferably, the environment monitoring module 120 can be installed in a closed distribution box, a terminal box or an underground shaft around the joint to meet the running environment monitoring needs of the cable joint in various high, medium and low voltage power supply systems.

[0060] Preferably, the environment monitoring module 120 includes various types of sensor devices, such as an environmental temperature sensor, a humidity sensor and an air flow rate sensor, and further includes an environmental data processing unit for processing the data collected by these sensor devices.

[0061] The data that can be collected by the environment monitoring module 120 include: the temperature in the environment, which is the main basis for judging the heat exchange efficiency and the baseline thermal environment level; the air humidity in the environment, which is used to evaluate the potential influence of the humid environment on the insulation performance of the joint and the corrosion risk of the contact interface; and the air flow rate, which indirectly reflects the heat dissipation efficiency under natural or forced ventilation conditions. When the air flow rate is low and the temperature is high, the system can determine that the current heat exchange capacity is weak, which may accelerate the temperature rise of the joint.

[0062] Preferably, the environmental data processing unit is configured to collect, amplify, filter and analog-digital convert the analog signals output by the sensors to ensure that the obtained environmental data has high sampling precision and anti-interference capability.

[0063] Preferably, both the load monitoring module 110 and the environmental monitoring module 120 include a communication unit. This communication unit establishes a communication connection with the joint thermal response modeling module 140 to send the data collected by the load monitoring module 110 and the environmental monitoring module 120 to the joint thermal response modeling module 140. The communication unit can communicate using various protocols, including but not limited to RS485, CAN bus, Ethernet, or wireless communication (such as LoRa, NB-IoT, etc.), to adapt to networking requirements in different scenarios.

[0064] The joint thermal response modeling module 140 is used to establish, maintain, and run the temperature rise model. The temperature rise model can be independently established based on the characteristics of the cable joints monitored within this monitoring system. Therefore, different models and specifications of cable joints can use different temperature rise models to respond to different temperature rise characteristics. The temperature rise model will be described in detail later.

[0065] Furthermore, in an exemplary embodiment, the connector monitoring module 130 is used to periodically monitor the temperature status of multiple cable connectors in order to continuously track the operating status and temperature rise changes of each connector.

[0066] Preferred options are listed below. Figure 2 As shown, the connector monitoring module 130 includes a sensor 132, a processing component 134, a cable assembly 136, and a sensor hub 138.

[0067] The sensor 132 can be a thermistor, whose resistance changes with temperature. When connected to the data processing component 134, it generates an electrical signal, which can be interpreted to determine the temperature at the location of the thermistor 132. The thermistor 132 is located at a preset measurement position on the surface of the cable joint or inside the cable joint, and is used to monitor the local temperature.

[0068] Furthermore, the sensor 132 can be other types of measuring elements, as long as it can achieve the preset temperature measurement function of the cable connector and meet the requirements of this technical solution. This technical solution does not impose any restrictions.

[0069] The processing assembly 134 preferably includes a microcontroller unit 142 and a sensor connector 144. In some embodiments, the processing assembly 134 is implemented as a printed circuit board to integrate the microcontroller unit 142 and the sensor connector 144 on its circuitry. The processing assembly 134 can also include a housing and be secured in place at a distance from the cable joint being monitored. The microcontroller unit 142 is electrically coupled to the sensor connector 144. The sensor connector 144 is configured to be communicatively coupled to one or more sensors 132 via the cable assembly 136. As such, the microcontroller unit 142 can acquire signals generated by the sensors 132 and determine a temperature at a location of the sensors 132 based on the temperature signals. The microcontroller unit 142 is also configured to record and store sets of temperature data acquired by the sensors 132 and transmit the temperature data to the sensor hub 138. In some embodiments, the microcontroller unit 142 acquires and / or transmits the temperature data periodically and / or intermittently. Preferably, the rate at which the microcontroller unit 142 acquires and / or transmits the temperature data can vary based on factors such as whether the measured temperature falls within a particular range and / or a machine start-up is detected.

[0070] The processing assembly 134 can be powered and operate via a battery or a direct current power supply. In some embodiments, the battery can be a rechargeable battery and can be configured to be periodically charged by an external power supply to maintain an electrical charge. At the same time, the battery can be configured to independently power the processing assembly 134 when the external power supply is unavailable so that the processing assembly 134 can continue to operate without the external power supply.

[0071] The processing assembly 134 is preferably configured to wirelessly communicate with the sensor hub 138. The processing assembly 134 can include a communication antenna through which the microcontroller unit 142 transmits the temperature data to the sensor hub 138. For example, the microcontroller unit 142 can transmit temperature measurements and other information, such as an identifier corresponding to each sensor 132. The communication antenna can be integrated into the processing assembly 134 and the microcontroller unit 142 can communicate through the communication antenna using a wireless communication protocol. For example, the electrical signals can be transmitted through the antenna according to a protocol such as a low power wide area network modulation technique (e.g., LoRa).

[0072] And, one or more micro control units 142 can be paired with a sensor hub 138 for directional wireless communication with the designated sensor hub 138. In the pairing mode, the micro control unit 142 uses an antenna to send a pairing flag, and the sensor hub 138 is configured to pair with the processing component 134 in response to receiving the pairing flag. The pairing flag contains an identifier corresponding to the processing component 134, which can be associated with a specific circuit location being detected. This pairing process can prevent interference from sensors installed on other nearby devices or other onboard locations.

[0073] Further, the sensor hub 138 is connected to a risk assessment module 150 of the monitoring system. In some embodiments, the sensor hub 138 can include a memory capable of storing an association between a sensor component identifier and a corresponding cable joint, and storing corresponding time-series-based temperature data under the identifier.

[0074] In an exemplary embodiment, the risk assessment module 150 is configured to perform real-time risk value assessment and accumulation based on the temperature rise model calculation results output by the joint thermal response modeling module 140, in combination with the actual joint temperature data obtained by the joint monitoring module 130.

[0075] As shown in the accompanying Figure 3 The joint thermal response modeling module 140 establishes one or more temperature rise models for the cable joint, with real-time load parameters provided by the load monitoring module 110 and thermal environment information provided by the environmental monitoring module 120 as input variables, and outputs a theoretical predicted temperature value T pre of the cable joint under current operating conditions. The temperature rise model can be personalized according to the specific cable joint model, material, thermal resistance structure, and operating aging characteristics, thereby improving the accuracy and adaptability of temperature rise prediction.

[0076] Embodiment two: this embodiment should be understood as at least containing all the features of any one of the preceding embodiments, and further improving on the basis thereof;

[0077] In an exemplary embodiment, based on the working conditions experienced by the cable joint over a period of time, the degree of aging of the cable joint is predicted by a temperature rise model, and the reasonable working temperature of the cable joint under the specific working conditions is analyzed, and by comparing the predicted reasonable working temperature with the real-time measured working temperature, it is evaluated whether the cable joint is in an over-aging state, or whether the joint monitoring module 130 has a working abnormality.

[0078] Preferably, as shown in the accompanying Figure 4 The establishment step of the temperature rise model includes:

[0079] S100: Establishing the temperature rise base model; by setting multiple variable combinations in laboratory conditions, including various current values, duration, ambient temperature, joint type, crimping state, etc., and including accelerated aging test conditions, collecting temperature rise curves; thereafter, a high-dimensional feature to temperature rise result mapping model is constructed, i.e.: lab

[0080] f(x1,x2,…x n ), wherein x1,x2,…x n are multiple working characteristics of the cable joint during operation, including, for example, current value, duration, ambient temperature, joint type, crimping state, etc.

[0081] Among them, various determination methods can be used to verify the actual property changes of the cable joint under various working conditions, including but not limited to appearance determination, destructive determination, dissolution determination, ultrasonic determination, etc.

[0082] S200: Temperature rise base model adaptation based on use scenarios, to determine the degree of change in the temperature rise characteristics of each cable joint under the continuous influence of multiple external factors and the effect of time accumulation, and to correct the temperature rise base model to generate a final usable temperature rise model for a specific cable joint. The temperature rise base model is calibrated by parameter normalization or scene, corresponding to the joint thermal characteristics in actual engineering applications, and based on the actual occurrence value of each index, such as actual running time, line category, maintenance record data, to estimate the deterioration stage of the test cable joint.

[0083] That is, the temperature rise model is obtained by experimental statistics for evaluating the cumulative change in the heating characteristics of the cable joint itself after experiencing the influence of multiple working conditions. This cumulative change is caused by the long-term influence of the working environment of the cable joint.

[0084] Further, to more accurately reflect the thermal response characteristics of the cable joint under dynamic load and environmental changes, the temperature rise model can be modeled using a hierarchical structure. In actual working process, the temperature rise model is used to calculate the predicted temperature value of the cable joint by inputting the numerical values of multiple working condition parameters experienced and in which the cable joint is in actual use. By obtaining the current environmental temperature T ambient , load working condition, etc. values, and inputting the established temperature rise base model, and obtaining the output theoretical predicted temperature value T pre .

[0085] In essence, T pre is the output value corresponding to the specific input after fitting calculation T lab . And T​pre is expressed as:

[0086] T pre = T lab = T ambient + Q(t) x R(t);

[0087] In the above formula, Q(t) represents the heat generation power per unit time, which can be determined by simulation, and the heat generation of the cable joint at the position can be determined according to the cable power transmission working condition.

[0088] In the preferred embodiment, the following can be defined:

[0089] Q(t) = Q(t) = I(t) 2 · R elec ;

[0090] In the above formula, I(t) is the monitored cable current at the current time t, and R elec is the equivalent resistance value of the cable joint. The above calculation formula quantifies the heat source strength of the joint under actual working conditions based on the Joule law. I(t) is collected in real time by the load monitoring module, and R elec can be set according to the joint type, structure and contact state at system initialization, and can be fine-tuned according to historical temperature rise data during operation.

[0091] R(t) is the equivalent thermal resistance term decomposed from the function T lab , which can represent the equivalent thermal resistance of the heat path, including internal heat conduction of the joint, insulation layer thermal resistance, contact interface thermal resistance and heat dissipation environment (convective heat exchange) and other factors.

[0092] After that, the deviation of the predicted temperature value T pre and the actual temperature value T actual is evaluated, and risk feedback is made.

[0093] First, the current actual temperature T actual of the joint is collected;

[0094] Then, the difference ΔT = T actual - T pre is calculated.

[0095] If ΔT exceeds a certain range, it is considered that the joint has abnormal thermal response or performance accelerated degradation.

[0096] In an exemplary embodiment, a risk value Risk for quantifying the thermal risk evolution process of the cable joint is further provided. The risk value Risk is a numerical index that evolves over time, which is used to comprehensively reflect the thermal stress level and the possible structural degradation trend of the joint during actual operation.

[0097] Under normal working conditions of the system, the risk value Risk increases at a preset basic accumulation rate. The basic accumulation rate can be determined according to the operating environment conditions of the cable joint, including but not limited to environmental temperature, ventilation condition, humidity, and electrical load working conditions such as working current, load duration, and the like, in combination with basic properties of the joint material, crimping method, thermal resistance characteristics, and the like, to form a risk basic growth function for describing the aging rate of the joint under no abnormal conditions.

[0098] Preferably, to improve the identification ability of the monitoring system for potential abnormal working conditions, a temperature rise prediction deviation factor is further introduced in the calculation of the risk value Risk. When the actual temperature value T actual collected by the joint monitoring module deviates from the predicted temperature value T pre predicted by the joint thermal response modeling module, the system considers that there is an unexpected thermal behavior of the joint. The deviation ΔT will act on the accumulation rate of the risk value Risk in the form of a nonlinear amplification function, so that the greater the deviation, the faster the risk value increases.

[0099] Preferably, the risk growth function can adopt the following expression:

[0100] Risk(t+1)=Risk(t)+R base (t)+α·max(0,Δt-Δt thresh ) γ ;

[0101] In the above formula, Risk(t) is the risk value at the current time t; R base (t) is the risk basic increment under normal working conditions, which can be specifically set through the above statistical experiments on the cable joint; ΔT thresh is the deviation response threshold set for ΔT; α is a risk increase rate factor, and γ is an exponential parameter for controlling the linear and nonlinear degrees of risk amplification, preferably 1 < n < 2; wherein α, γ, and ΔT thresh can be specifically set by relevant technical personnel according to the safety requirements of the cable joint.

[0102] Preferably, in the long-term operation of the system, if the deviation ΔT value is found to be too high, the R(t) or T lab part of the weight factor needs to be adaptively tested or updated to improve the fitting degree of the temperature rise model.

[0103] Through the above mechanism, the monitoring system can dynamically evaluate the thermal operating state of each joint in the continuous monitoring process, and quickly increase the risk level when there is an abnormal temperature rise, thereby providing a reference basis for subsequent maintenance judgment and maintenance strategy.

[0104] Embodiment three: this embodiment should be understood as including all the features of at least any one of the preceding embodiments and further improving on the basis thereof;

[0105] Exemplarily, as shown in the accompanying drawings, Figure 5 Exemplarily, as shown in the accompanying drawings,

[0106] Exemplarily, the computer system 500 includes a bus 502 or other communication mechanism for communicating information, and one or more processors 504 coupled with the bus 502 for processing information; the processor 504 can be, for example, one or more general purpose microprocessors;

[0107] The computer system 500 further includes a main memory 506, such as a random access memory (RAM), cache and / or other dynamic storage devices, coupled to the bus 502 for storing information and instructions to be executed by the processor 504; the main memory 506 also can be used for storing temporary variables or other intermediate information during execution of instructions to be executed by the processor 504; these instructions, when stored in storage media accessible to the processor 504, render the computer system 500 into a special-purpose machine that is customized to perform the operations specified in the instructions;

[0108] The computer system 500 further can include a read-only memory (ROM) 508 or other static storage device coupled to the bus 502 for storing static information and instructions for the processor 504; a storage device 510, such as a magnetic disk, optical disk, or USB drive (flash drive), etc., can be coupled to the bus 502 for storing information and instructions;

[0109] Further, coupled to the bus 502 can further include a display 512 for displaying various information, data, media, etc., and an input device 514 for allowing a user of the computer system 500 to control, manipulate and / or interact with the computer system 500;

[0110] A preferred way of interacting with the management system can be through a cursor control device 516, such as a computer mouse or similar control / navigation mechanism;

[0111] Further, the computer system 500 can further include a network device 518 coupled to the bus 502; the network device 518 can include, for example, a wired network card, a wireless network card, a switching chip, a router, a switch, etc.;

[0112] Generally, the terms "engine," "component," "system," "database," and the like as used herein can refer to either hardware or firmware embodied in one or more computer- readable media, or to a collection of software instructions, possibly having entry and exit points, written in a suitable programming language, such as Java, C or C++, that embody the use of the data in that pertain to the software instructions; software components can be compiled and linked into executable programs, installed in dynamic link libraries, or can be written in interpreted languages such as BASIC, Perl, or Python; it will be appreciated that software components can be callable from other components or from themselves, and / or can be invoked in response to detected events or interrupts;

[0113] Software components configured to execute on computing devices can be provided on computer-readable media, such as optical, digital, or analog magnetic media, flash memory, or any other tangible medium, or as a digital download (and can initially be stored) in a compressed or installable format, requiring installation, decompression or decryption prior to execution); such software code can be stored partially or entirely on memory devices of the executing computing device, for execution by the computing device; software instructions can be embedded in firmware, such as an EPROM; it will be appreciated that hardware components can be comprised of connected logic elements (such as gates, flip flops, and so on), and / or can be comprised of programmable elements (such as a PLD, FPGAs, or PLAs), and that the functionality of any given program module can be carried out using one or more processors in a

[0114] Computer system 500 includes a processor 504 that can implement the techniques described herein using custom hard-wired logic, one or more ASICs or FPGAs, firmware and / or program logic which in combination with the computer system causes or programs computer system 500 to be a special-purpose computing device;

[0115] In accordance with one or more embodiments, the techniques herein are performed by computer system 500 in response to processor 504 executing one or more sequences of one or more instructions contained in main memory 506; such instructions can be read into main memory 506 from another storage medium, such as storage device 510; execution of the sequences of instructions contained in main memory 506 causes processor 504 to perform the process steps described herein; in alternative embodiments, hard-wired circuitry can be used in place of or in combination with software instructions;

[0116] The term "non-transitory medium" and similar terms as used herein refers to any medium that stores the data and / or instructions that cause a machine to operate in a specific fashion; such non-transitory media can include non-volatile media and / or volatile media; non-volatile media includes, for example, optical or magnetic disks, such as storage device 510; volatile media includes dynamic memory, such as main memory 506;

[0117] Among common forms of non-transitory media are, for example, a floppy disk, a flexible disk, hard disk, solid-state drive, magnetic tape, or any other magnetic data storage medium, a CD-ROM, any other optical data storage medium, any physical medium with patterns of holes, a RAM, a PROM, and EPROM, a FLASH-EPROM, NVRAM, any other memory chip or cartridge, and a networked version of any of the above.

[0118] A non-transitory medium is distinct from, but can be used in combination with, a transmission medium; a transmission medium participates in communicating information between non-transitory media; for example, a transmission medium includes a coaxial cable, a copper wire, and a fiber optic cable, including the wires that make up bus 502; a transmission medium can also take the form of an acoustic wave or an optical wave, such as radio or infrared data communications.

[0119] While the application has been described above with reference to various embodiments, it should be understood that many changes, modifications, and substitutions can be made by one of ordinary skill in the art without departing from the scope of the application. That is, the methods, systems, and devices discussed above are examples. Various configurations can omit, substitute, or add various procedures or components. For instance, in alternative configurations, the methods can be performed in an order different from that described, and / or various steps can be added, omitted, and / or combined. Also, features discussed with respect to certain configurations can be combined in various other configurations, for example, different aspects and elements of configurations can be combined in a similar manner. Also, technology evolves and, thus, many of the elements are examples and do not limit the scope of the disclosure or claims. One of ordinary skill in the art will readily recognize a variety of ways to implement the disclosed elements.

[0120] In the description, numerous specific details are set forth to provide a thorough understanding of example configurations including implementations. However, implementations can be practiced without the specific details. For example, well-known circuits, processes, algorithms, structures, and techniques have not been described in detail so as not to obscure the configurations. This description provides example configurations only, and does not limit the scope, applicability, or configurations of the claims. Rather, the preceding description of the configurations will provide enabling descriptions for a skilled artisan to make or use the described technologies. Various changes can be made to the function and arrangement of elements without departing from the spirit or scope of the disclosure.

[0121] In view of the above, it will be seen that the details set forth in the preceding description are to be considered merely illustrative of the application and not restrictive. It will be appreciated that since the present application can be varied in many ways, it will be appreciated that the application can be practiced otherwise than as specifically described. It is therefore desired that the scope of the application be determined not with reference to the above description but rather should be determined with reference to the appended claims along with their full scope of equivalents.

Claims

1. A cable joint temperature rise real-time monitoring system applied to a dynamic load environment, characterized in that, The system comprises: a load monitoring module configured to collect real-time data of multiple load parameters in the power transmission environment where the cable is located; an environment monitoring module configured to collect environmental information data of the location where the cable joint is located; a joint monitoring module configured to periodically monitor the temperature of multiple cable joints at a specified monitoring frequency; a joint thermal response modeling module for establishing a temperature rise model of the cable joint; a risk assessment module configured to calculate a risk value for each cable joint based on the working conditions of the cable joint and the deviation between the actual detected temperature and the temperature predicted by the temperature rise model, and generate a warning prompt information when the risk value exceeds a preset threshold; wherein the monitoring frequency is dynamically adjusted according to the system operating state, load level or environmental conditions through an algorithm; the temperature rise model includes a thermal resistance parameter factor based on the characteristics of the cable joint and an aging degradation factor that changes with the use time the risk assessment module includes the following factors in calculating the growth value of the risk value: a time factor, which makes the longer the cumulative operating time of the cable joint, the more gradually the risk value accumulates; a load factor, which makes the risk value accumulation rate increase when the joint is in a high load line section; a deviation factor, if the actual temperature of the joint deviates from the calculated value of the temperature rise model by more than a certain threshold, the risk value increases by a certain jump increment; the monitoring system includes establishing an independent corresponding temperature rise model for one or more monitored cable joints; the establishment of the temperature rise model includes the following steps: the joint monitoring module includes one or more temperature sensors arranged on the monitored joint to obtain the real-time temperature of the cable joint. ​ ​ S100: Under laboratory conditions, different cable joint specifications are set by setting different working conditions and accelerated aging conditions, temperature rise data is collected, and a mapping model between multiple characteristic inputs and temperature rise results is established as a temperature rise basic model T lab ; S200: Based on the actual use scene, the temperature rise basic model T lab is parameterized or calibrated, combined with the running time of the joint, the line type and the maintenance record, the degradation stage of the joint is estimated, the temperature rise model is corrected, and the temperature rise prediction model suitable for the target joint is formed.

2. The monitoring system of claim 1, wherein, ​

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