Earthquake forecasting method based on deep well water level data

Abstract

The invention discloses an earthquake forecasting method based on deep well water level data. The method comprises the following steps: S1, acquiring deep well water level data; s2, comparing the water level data of the deep well with historical water level data; and S3, outputting earthquake forecast data according to a comparison result. The anti-interference capability is strong, the earthquake can be forecasted in advance, the social safety is effectively guaranteed, the harm is reduced, and the loss is reduced.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of earthquake prediction, and particularly to an earthquake prediction method based on deep well water level data. Background Art

[0002] Earthquake prediction refers to predicting the magnitude, time and location of future earthquakes before they occur, and promptly announcing them to the public so that people in the predicted disaster areas can take preventive measures to reduce casualties and property losses.

[0003] The three elements of earthquake prediction are the time, location and magnitude of the earthquake. A class of abnormal phenomena before earthquakes that can be detected by human senses, such as abnormal behaviors of animals, fluctuations in groundwater levels, bubbling and foaming of wells, floating oil flowers, color changes, earth lights, fireballs, and re-blooming of fruit trees, etc. A large number of these abnormal phenomena occurring in a large area and in a short period of time are relatively accurate signals of the approaching earthquake. However, these abnormal phenomena cannot predict the three elements of the earthquake, namely the time, location and magnitude. The inability to accurately judge the three elements of the earthquake will affect the preventive judgment before the earthquake and cause unnecessary loss of life and property. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide an earthquake prediction method based on deep well water level data to solve the technical problem of how to predict earthquakes.

[0005] The present invention is implemented by the following technical solutions: An earthquake prediction method based on deep well water level data includes the following steps: S1: Obtain deep well water level data; S2: Compare the deep well water level data with historical water level data; S3: Output earthquake prediction data according to the comparison result.

[0006] Further, step S1 is specifically: Obtain deep well water level data and generate a daily average water level curve of the deep well water level data.

[0007] Further, step S2 is specifically: Monitor the daily average water level curve in real time and set a mutation threshold, and the mutation threshold is the change range of the daily average water level.

[0008] Further, the change range of the daily average water level is set according to the historical normal changes of the deep well.

[0009] Further, the change range of the daily average water level is 2 times the water level of the previous day.

[0010] Further, step S3 is specifically: When the change range of the daily average water level curve is greater than the mutation threshold, issue an earthquake prediction.

[0011] Further, the earthquake prediction specifically is: there is a risk of a major earthquake of magnitude 6 or above in the short term.

[0012] Further, the short term specifically refers to 105 days.

[0013] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: The present invention has strong anti-interference ability, can realize the advance prediction of earthquakes, effectively guarantee social security, reduce hazards and losses. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0014] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the following will briefly introduce the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments or the prior art. Obviously, the following described drawings are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those of ordinary skill in the art, without creative efforts, other drawings can also be obtained based on the structures shown in these drawings.

[0015] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0016] To make the objectives, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are some, but not all, of the embodiments of the present invention. Usually, the components of the embodiments of the present invention described and illustrated in the drawings here can be arranged and designed in various different configurations.

[0017] It should be noted that: Similar reference numerals and letters denote similar items in the following drawings. Therefore, once an item is defined in one drawing, it does not need to be further defined and explained in subsequent drawings.

[0018] The following will, in conjunction with the drawings, elaborate on some embodiments of the present invention. Without conflict, the following embodiments and the features in the embodiments can be combined with each other.

[0019] See Figure 1 , a method for earthquake prediction based on deep well water level data, comprising the following steps: S1: Obtain the deep well water level data; S2: Compare the deep well water level data with the historical water level data; S3: Output earthquake prediction data according to the comparison result.

[0020] In this embodiment, step S1 specifically is: Obtain the deep well water level data and generate a daily average water level curve of the deep well water level data.

[0021] In this embodiment, step S2 is specifically as follows: The daily average water level curve is monitored in real time, and a mutation threshold is set. The mutation threshold is the change range of the daily average water level, and the change range of the daily average water level is set according to the historical normal changes of the deep well (specifically, the historical data of the previous few years, months, or days can be used. Of course, some interference situations, such as heavy rain, should be excluded from the historical data). Specifically, it can be set to twice the water level of the previous day. Of course, in actual applications, it can be adjusted according to the actual situation, such as set to 1 time, 3 times, etc.

[0022] In this embodiment, step S3 is specifically as follows: When the change range of the daily average water level curve is greater than the mutation threshold, an earthquake forecast is issued. The earthquake forecast is specifically: There is a risk of a major earthquake of magnitude 6 or above within 105 days.

[0023] The application principle of the present invention is as follows: In the area near a single well, when the underground stress becomes a very active area for a period of time, under this background condition, one, two, three or more larger and consecutive destructive earthquakes may occur suddenly here, resulting in heavy losses locally. This method uses some precursors such as underground or geo - electric water levels and other observation points. The observation points are located at special positions in the geological structure and the geological environment conditions are very good. From large earthquake cases, it can be seen that when one or more of these observation points show anomalies.

[0024] Therefore, it can be concluded that the first M>=3.0 moderate - strong earthquake occurring in this area or nearby areas should be the foreshock reflection of the future new earthquake; the first mutation in the water level or geo - electric precursor anomaly change occurring in this area or nearby areas should be the precursor anomaly of the future new area. That is to say, quickly causing a co - seismic mutation anomaly of rising or falling in this deep well, and this co - seismic mutation anomaly of rising or falling is the core of the research of the present invention.

[0025] Example illustration Example 1: On October 24, 1995, a magnitude 6.5 earthquake occurred in Area A. At the same time, a step - change anomaly of a 60 - drop in the water level curve of a certain deep well occurred. Three months later, on February 3, 1996, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurred in Area B.

[0026] Example 2: At the beginning of August 1988, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake occurred in Area C, causing a co - seismic step - change anomaly of 5.0 mm in the water level of a certain deep well point. After nearly three months, on November 6, 1988, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred in Area D.

[0027] Example 3: The coseismic step change anomaly of millimeters during the magnitude 7.6 earthquake in Area E on November 6, 1988. After nearly three months, on November 6, 1988, when a magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred in Area F, a huge anomaly change of 470 millimeters appeared at a certain deep well water level point. After more than five months, a magnitude 6.7 earthquake swarm occurred in Area G. After the magnitude 6.7 earthquake swarm in Area G, the water level point has been in a relatively perfect and stable state, reflecting that the regional seismic activity in Area G and its vicinity has significantly weakened.

[0028] Example 4: On May 22, 2021, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred in Area H. On May 22, 2022, an obvious coseismic step change anomaly of 80 millimeters appeared in a certain deep well. After three and a half months of calm, on September 16, 2021, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake occurred in Area I. The observation point is 440.0 kilometers away from the epicenter of the magnitude 6.0 earthquake in Area I.

[0029] For the foregoing embodiments, for the sake of simple description, they are all expressed as a series of action combinations. However, those skilled in the art should know that this application is not limited by the described action sequence, because according to this application, some steps can be performed in other sequences or simultaneously. Secondly, those skilled in the art should also know that the embodiments described in the specification are preferred embodiments, and the actions involved are not necessarily essential to this application.

[0030] In the above embodiments, the basic principles, main features, and advantages of the present invention are described. Those skilled in the art of this industry should understand that the present invention is not limited by the above embodiments. The above embodiments and the descriptions in the specification only illustrate the principles of the present invention. Without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, any changes and modifications made by those skilled in the art that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention shall fall within the protection scope of the appended claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A seismic prediction method based on deep well water level data, characterized in that, It includes the following steps: S1: Obtain the water level data of the deep well; S2: Compare the water level data of the deep well with the historical water level data; S3: Output earthquake prediction data according to the comparison result.

2. The earthquake prediction method based on deep well water level data according to claim 1, characterized in that, Step S1 is specifically: Obtain the water level data of the deep well and generate a daily average water level curve from the water level data of the deep well.

3. The earthquake prediction method based on deep well water level data according to claim 2, wherein, Step S2 is specifically: Conduct real-time monitoring on the daily average water level curve and set a mutation threshold, where the mutation threshold is the change range of the daily average water level.

4. The earthquake prediction method based on deep well water level data according to claim 3, wherein, The change range of the daily average water level is set according to the historical normal change of the deep well.

5. The earthquake prediction method based on deep well water level data according to claim 4, wherein, The change range of the daily average water level is 2 times the water level of the previous day.

6. The earthquake prediction method based on deep well water level data according to claim 3, characterized in that, Step S3 is specifically: When the change range of the daily average water level curve is greater than the mutation threshold, issue an earthquake prediction.

7. The earthquake prediction method based on deep well water level data according to claim 6, wherein, The earthquake prediction specifically is: There is a risk of a major earthquake of magnitude 6 or above in the short term.

8. The earthquake prediction method based on deep well water level data according to claim 7, characterized in that The short term specifically refers to 105 days.

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