New energy output coefficient determination method and system considering power supply and demand balance of provincial power grid

Abstract

The invention discloses a new energy output coefficient determination method considering power supply and demand balance of a provincial power grid. The method comprises the steps of obtaining data information of a target provincial power grid; selecting an analysis time period of the typical scene to be analyzed; calculating to obtain a first output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scene; calculating to obtain a second output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scene; calculating to obtain a third output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scene; calculating an average output coefficient and an output coefficient standard deviation of the new energy power generation system; calculating to obtain a power change value of the new energy power generation system; and calculating to obtain a new energy output coefficient determination index and completing new energy output coefficient determination of the target provincial power grid. The invention also discloses a system for realizing the new energy output coefficient determination method considering the power supply and demand balance of the provincial power grid. The method is high in reliability, good in accuracy and more objective and scientific.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of electrical automation, and particularly relates to a method and system for determining a new energy output coefficient considering the power supply and demand balance of a provincial power grid. Background Art

[0002] With the development of economy and technology and the improvement of people's living standards, electric energy has become an essential secondary energy source in people's production and life, bringing endless convenience to people's production and life. Therefore, ensuring the stable and reliable supply of electric energy has become one of the most important tasks of the power system.

[0003] With the increasingly serious environmental problems, more and more new energy power generation systems have begun to be incorporated into the power system for power generation. However, affected by the uncertainty of the output of new energy power generation systems, the balance risk of the new power system increases with the increase of the new energy penetration rate. At present, the power supply and demand balance analysis of the provincial power grid under typical scenarios is also increasingly affected by the new energy output coefficient.

[0004] At present, when analyzing the power supply and demand balance, the empirical method is usually used to determine the new energy output coefficient, and then the power supply and demand balance analysis is carried out according to the selected new energy output coefficient. At the same time, in the existing solutions, in order to avoid the risks brought by the randomness, volatility and intermittency of new energy output to the safe and stable operation and reliable power supply of the power grid to the greatest extent, when using the empirical method to select the new energy output coefficient, a relatively large margin is usually reserved. Therefore, the accuracy and reliability of the existing solutions are not high. Moreover, since the existing solutions will reserve a relatively large margin, this will make the subsequent actions after the power supply and demand balance analysis, such as power system planning, construction, operation plan setting, etc., all generate a relatively large amount of redundancy, thus increasing the operation cost of the power system and reducing the operation efficiency of the power system. Summary of the Invention

[0005] One of the purposes of the present invention is to provide a method for determining a new energy output coefficient considering the power supply and demand balance of a provincial power grid, which has high reliability, good accuracy and is objective and scientific.

[0006] Another purpose of the present invention is to provide a system for implementing the method for determining a new energy output coefficient considering the power supply and demand balance of a provincial power grid.

[0007] The method for determining a new energy output coefficient considering the power supply and demand balance of a provincial power grid provided by the present invention includes the following steps:

[0008] S1. Obtain the data information of the target provincial power grid;

[0009] S2. Select the analysis period of the typical scenario to be analyzed;

[0010] S3. According to the analysis period selected in step S2, obtain historical new energy output data, select a confidence interval, and calculate the first output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in a typical scenario;

[0011] S4. According to the analysis period selected in step S2, obtain historical load data, select a load period, and calculate the second output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in a typical scenario;

[0012] S5. According to the analysis period selected in step S2, based on the data information when the load is the largest and the new energy power generation system can ensure the output power, calculate the third output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in a typical scenario;

[0013] S6. According to the calculated first output coefficient, second output coefficient, and third output coefficient, calculate the average output coefficient and the standard deviation of the output coefficient of the new energy power generation system;

[0014] S7. According to the average output coefficient obtained in step S6 and the empirical value of the new energy output coefficient, calculate the power change value of the new energy power generation system;

[0015] S8. According to the standard deviation of the output coefficient obtained in step S6 and the power change value of the new energy power generation system obtained in step S7, calculate the new energy output coefficient determination index;

[0016] S9. According to the new energy output coefficient determination index obtained in step S8, complete the determination of the new energy output coefficient of the target provincial power grid.

[0017] The step of obtaining historical new energy output data, selecting a confidence interval, and calculating the first output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in a typical scenario according to the analysis period selected in step S2 specifically includes the following steps:

[0018] According to the analysis period selected in step S2, obtain the new energy output data within the analysis period and arrange them in a set order, expressed as

[0019] Z wind =[Z wind,1 ,Z wind,2 ,…,Z wind,i ,…,Z wind,n

[0020] Z PV =[Z PV,1 ,Z PV,2 ,…,Z PV,j ,…,Z PV,m

[0021] In the formula, Z wind is the output array of the wind power system within the analysis period; Z​​wind,i is the i-th group of output data of the wind power system during the analysis period; n is the total number of wind power output data; Z PV is the output array of the photovoltaic system during the analysis period; Z PV,j is the jth set of output data of the photovoltaic system during the analysis period; m is the total number of photovoltaic output data;

[0022] A 95% confidence interval was selected;

[0023] The first output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in a typical scenario is calculated:

[0024]

[0025] Where λ wind,95％ is the first output coefficient of the wind power system in a typical scenario; Z wind,95％ S is the output power of the wind power system when the output confidence level is 95% in the output array within the analysis period; wind is the installed capacity of wind power; PV,95％ is the first output coefficient of the photovoltaic system in a typical scenario; Z PV,95％ S is the output power of the photovoltaic system when the output confidence level is 95% in the output array within the analysis period; PV The installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation.

[0026] The step S4, according to the analysis period selected in step S2, obtains historical load data and selects a load period to calculate the second output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in a typical scenario, specifically including the following steps:

[0027] According to the analysis period selected in step S2, the corresponding new energy output data when the target provincial power grid load is greater than 95% of the maximum load in the analysis period is obtained, which is expressed as

[0028] Z′ wind,95％,load =[Z′ wind,1 ,Z′ wind,2 ,…,Z′ wind,k ,…,Z′ wind,N ]

[0029] Z′ PV,95％,load =[Z′ PV,1 ,Z′ PV,2 ,…,Z′ wind,l ,…,Z′ PV,M ]

[0030] Where Z' wind,95％,load is the wind power system output array corresponding to the target provincial power grid load being greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; Z' wind,kis the output data of the k-th group of the wind power system when the target provincial power grid load is greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; N is the total number of output data of the wind power system when the target provincial power grid load is greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; Z' PV,95％,load is the output array of the photovoltaic system when the target provincial power grid load is greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; Z' wind,k is the output data of the l-th group of the photovoltaic system when the target provincial power grid load is greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; M is the total number of output data of the photovoltaic system when the target provincial power grid load is greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period;

[0031] Select the minimum value Z' wind,95％,load in Z' wind,min and select the minimum value Z' PV,95％,load in Z' PV,min and calculate the second output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario, expressed as

[0032]

[0033] where λ wind,95％,load is the second output coefficient of the wind power system in the typical scenario; λ PV,95％,load is the second output coefficient of the photovoltaic system in the typical scenario.

[0034] According to the analysis period selected in step S2, based on the data information when the load is the largest and the new energy power generation system can ensure the output power, calculate the third output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0035] According to the analysis period selected in step S2, obtain the data information when the load is the largest and the output power of the new energy power generation system can be ensured, and calculate the third output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario:

[0036]

[0037] where λ wind,gurantee is the third output coefficient of the wind power system in the typical scenario; P wind,gurantee is the guaranteed output power of the wind power system when the load is the largest during the analysis period; λ PV,gurantee is the third output coefficient of the photovoltaic system in the typical scenario; P PV,gurantee is the guaranteed output power of the photovoltaic system when the load is the largest during the analysis period.

[0038] According to the calculated first output coefficient, second output coefficient and third output coefficient, calculate the average output coefficient and the standard deviation of the output coefficient of the new energy power generation system, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0039] The average output coefficient λ of the wind power system is calculated wind,average is

[0040] The average output coefficient λ of the photovoltaic system is calculated PV,average is

[0041] The standard deviation σ of the output coefficient of the wind power system is calculated wind is

[0042] The standard deviation σ of the output coefficient of the photovoltaic system is calculated PV is

[0043] According to the average output coefficient obtained in step S6 and the empirical value of the new energy output coefficient, the power change value of the new energy power generation system is calculated, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0044] According to the average output coefficient obtained in step S6 and the empirical value of the new energy output coefficient, the power change value of the new energy power generation system is calculated, expressed as

[0045] ΔP wind =|λ wind,average -λ wind,exp |·S wind

[0046] ΔP PV =|λ PV,average -λ PV,exp |·S PV

[0047] In the formula, ΔP wind is the power change value of the wind power system; λ wind,exp is the empirical value of the output coefficient of the wind power system; ΔP PV is the power change value of the photovoltaic system; λ PV,exp is the empirical value of the output coefficient of the photovoltaic system.

[0048] According to the standard deviation of the output coefficient obtained in step S6 and the power change value of the new energy power generation system obtained in step S7, the new energy output coefficient determination index is calculated, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0049] According to the standard deviation of the output coefficient obtained in step S6 and the power change value of the new energy power generation system obtained in step S7, the new energy output coefficient determination index is calculated, expressed as

[0050] ηwind = ΔP wind ·σ wind

[0051] η PV = ΔP PV ·σ PV

[0052] where η wind is the determination index of the output coefficient of the wind power system; η PV is the determination index of the output coefficient of the photovoltaic system.

[0053] Based on the new energy output coefficient determination index obtained in step S8 in step S9, complete the determination of the new energy output coefficient of the target provincial power grid, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0054] Based on the new energy output coefficient determination index obtained in step S8, complete the determination of the new energy output coefficient of the target provincial power grid by using the following rules:

[0055] η wind The smaller the value of η is, the higher the reliability of the empirical value of the output coefficient of the wind power system of the target provincial power grid is determined; otherwise, the reliability of the empirical value of the output coefficient of the wind power system of the target provincial power grid is determined to be lower;

[0056] η PV The smaller the value of η is, the higher the reliability of the empirical value of the output coefficient of the photovoltaic system of the target provincial power grid is determined; otherwise, the reliability of the empirical value of the output coefficient of the photovoltaic system of the target provincial power grid is determined to be lower.

[0057] The present invention also provides a system for implementing the determination method of the new energy output coefficient considering the power supply and demand balance of the provincial power grid, including a data acquisition module, a time period selection module, a first calculation module, a second calculation module, a third calculation module, a parameter calculation module, a change calculation module, an index calculation module, and a parameter determination module; the data acquisition module and the time period selection module are connected in series, and the output end of the time period selection module is simultaneously connected to the first calculation module, the second calculation module, and the third calculation module; the output ends of the first calculation module, the second calculation module, and the third calculation module are simultaneously connected to the input end of the parameter calculation module; the output end of the parameter calculation module is successively connected in series with the change calculation module, the index calculation module, and the parameter determination module; the data acquisition module is used to acquire the data information of the target provincial power grid and upload the data information to the time period selection module; the time period selection module is used to select the analysis time period of the typical scenario to be analyzed according to the received data information and upload the data information to the first calculation module, the second calculation module, and the third calculation module; the first calculation module is used to acquire the historical new energy output data and select the confidence interval according to the received data information and the selected analysis time period, calculate the first output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario, and upload the data information to the parameter calculation module; the second calculation module is used to acquire the historical load data and select the load time period according to the received data information and the selected analysis time period, calculate the second output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario, and upload the data information to the parameter calculation module; the third calculation module is used to calculate the third output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario according to the received data information, the selected analysis time period, and the data information when the load is the largest and the new energy power generation system can ensure the output power, and upload the data information to the parameter calculation module; the parameter calculation module is used to calculate the average output coefficient and the output coefficient standard deviation of the new energy power generation system according to the received data information and the obtained first output coefficient, second output coefficient, and third output coefficient, and upload the data information to the change calculation module; the change calculation module is used to calculate the power change value of the new energy power generation system according to the received data information and the obtained average output coefficient and the empirical value of the new energy output coefficient, and upload the data information to the index calculation module; the index calculation module is used to calculate the new energy output coefficient determination index according to the received data information and the obtained output coefficient standard deviation and the power change value of the new energy power generation system, and upload the data information to the parameter determination module; the parameter determination module is used to complete the determination of the new energy output coefficient of the target provincial power grid according to the received data information and the obtained new energy output coefficient determination index.

[0058] The new energy output coefficient determination method and system considering the power supply and demand balance of provincial power grids provided by the present invention, through the selection of the analysis period of typical scenarios, combined with the calculation and analysis of multiple output coefficients in corresponding scenarios, and the calculation of output coefficient determination indicators, not only realizes the reliable determination of the new energy output coefficient considering the power supply and demand balance of provincial power grids, but also has higher reliability, better accuracy, and is more objective and scientific. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0059] Figure 1 It is a schematic flowchart of the method of the present invention.

[0060] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the wind power and photovoltaic output data during the summer noon period in the embodiment of the method of the present invention.

[0061] Figure 3 It is a schematic diagram of the wind power and photovoltaic output data during the period when the summer noon load is higher than 95% of the maximum load in the embodiment of the method of the present invention.

[0062] Figure 4 It is a schematic diagram of the functional modules of the system of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0063] As Figure 1 shown is a schematic flowchart of the method of the present invention: The new energy output coefficient determination method considering the power supply and demand balance of provincial power grids disclosed by the present invention includes the following steps:

[0064] S1. Obtain the data information of the target provincial power grid;

[0065] S2. Select the analysis period of the typical scenario to be analyzed;

[0066] During specific implementation, generally select scenarios such as large-scale clean energy generation scenarios and large-grid load scenarios. Usually, the large-grid load period appears between 19:00 and 23:00 in summer and winter. The large-scale clean energy generation scenario is usually at noon or in the early morning. At noon, it can generally be considered from 11:00 am to 3:00 pm, and in the early morning, it can generally be taken from 1:00 to 5:00.

[0067] S3. According to the analysis period selected in step S2, obtain the historical new energy output data and select the confidence interval, and calculate the first output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario; specifically, it includes the following steps:

[0068] According to the analysis period selected in step S2, obtain the new energy output data within the analysis period, and arrange them in a set order (preferably from large to small), denoted as

[0069] Z wind =[Z wind,1 ,Z wind,2,…,Z wind,i ,…,Z wind,n ]

[0070] Z PV =[Z PV,1 ,Z PV,2 ,…,Z PV,j ,…,Z PV,m ]

[0071] Where Z wind is the output array of the wind power system during the analysis period; Z wind,i is the i-th group of output data of the wind power system during the analysis period; n is the total number of wind power output data; Z PV is the output array of the photovoltaic system during the analysis period; Z PV,j is the jth set of output data of the photovoltaic system during the analysis period; m is the total number of photovoltaic output data;

[0072] A 95% confidence interval was selected;

[0073] The first output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in a typical scenario is calculated:

[0074]

[0075] Where λ wind,95％ is the first output coefficient of the wind power system in a typical scenario; Z wind,95％ S is the output power of the wind power system when the output confidence level is 95% in the output array within the analysis period; wind is the installed capacity of wind power; PV,95％ is the first output coefficient of the photovoltaic system in a typical scenario; Z PV,95％ S is the output power of the photovoltaic system when the output confidence level is 95% in the output array within the analysis period; PV is the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation;

[0076] S4. According to the analysis period selected in step S2, historical load data is obtained and a load period is selected to calculate the second output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in a typical scenario; specifically, the steps include:

[0077] According to the analysis period selected in step S2, the corresponding new energy output data when the target provincial power grid load is greater than 95% of the maximum load in the analysis period is obtained, which is expressed as

[0078] Z′ wind,95％,load =[Z′ wind,1 ,Z′ wind,2 ,…,Z′ wind,k ,…,Z′ wind,N ]

[0079] Z′PV,95％,load = [Z′ PV,1 , Z′ PV,2 , …, Z′ wind,l , …, Z′ PV,M

[0080] where Z' wind,95％,load is the output array of the wind power system corresponding to the target provincial power grid load being greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; Z' wind,k is the k-th group of output data of the wind power system corresponding to the target provincial power grid load being greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; N is the total number of output data of the wind power system corresponding to the target provincial power grid load being greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; Z' PV,95％,load is the output array of the photovoltaic system corresponding to the target provincial power grid load being greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; Z' wind,k is the l-th group of output data of the photovoltaic system corresponding to the target provincial power grid load being greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; M is the total number of output data of the photovoltaic system corresponding to the target provincial power grid load being greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period;

[0081] Select the minimum value Z' wind,95％,load from Z', and select the minimum value Z' wind,min from Z', and calculate the second output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario, denoted as PV,95％,load PV,min

[0082]

[0083] where λ wind,95％,load is the second output coefficient of the wind power system in the typical scenario; λ PV,95％,load is the second output coefficient of the photovoltaic system in the typical scenario; PV,95％,load is the second output coefficient of the photovoltaic system in the typical scenario;

[0084] S5. According to the analysis period selected in step S2, based on the data information when the load is the largest and the new energy power generation system can ensure the output power, calculate the third output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario; specifically including the following steps:

[0085] According to the analysis period selected in step S2, obtain the data information when the load is the largest and the output power of the new energy power generation system can be ensured, and calculate the third output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario:

[0086]

[0087] where λ wind,gurantee is the third output coefficient of the wind power system in the typical scenario; P wind,gurantee ​is the guaranteed output power of the wind power system at the maximum load during the analysis period (i.e., the maximum value that the wind power system can maintain the output power); λ PV,gurantee is the third output coefficient of the photovoltaic system in the typical scenario; P PV,gurantee is the guaranteed output power of the photovoltaic system at the maximum load during the analysis period (i.e., the maximum value that the photovoltaic system can maintain the output power);

[0088] S6. According to the calculated first output coefficient, second output coefficient and third output coefficient, calculate the average output coefficient and the standard deviation of the output coefficient of the new energy power generation system; specifically including the following steps:

[0089] Calculate the average output coefficient λ of the wind power system wind,average is

[0090] Calculate the average output coefficient λ of the photovoltaic system PV,average is

[0091] Calculate the standard deviation of the output coefficient σ of the wind power system wind is

[0092] Calculate the standard deviation of the output coefficient σ of the photovoltaic system PV is

[0093] S7. According to the average output coefficient obtained in step S6 and the empirical value of the new energy output coefficient, calculate the power change value of the new energy power generation system; specifically including the following steps:

[0094] According to the average output coefficient obtained in step S6 and the empirical value of the new energy output coefficient, calculate the power change value of the new energy power generation system, expressed as

[0095] ΔP wind =|λ wind,average -λ wind,exp |·S wind

[0096] ΔP PV =|λ PV,average -λ PV,exp |·S PV

[0097] In the formula, ΔP wind is the power change value of the wind power system; λ wind,exp is the empirical value of the output coefficient of the wind power system; ΔP PV is the power change value of the photovoltaic system; λPV,exp is the empirical value of the output coefficient of the photovoltaic system; λ above wind,exp and λ PV,exp , which is the empirical value when evaluating using the existing solution, so its value is relatively conservative;

[0098] S8. Calculate the new energy output coefficient determination index based on the standard deviation of the output coefficient obtained in step S6 and the power change value of the new energy power generation system obtained in step S7; specifically, it includes the following steps:

[0099] Calculate the new energy output coefficient determination index based on the standard deviation of the output coefficient obtained in step S6 and the power change value of the new energy power generation system obtained in step S7, expressed as

[0100] η wind = ΔP wind ·σ wind

[0101] η PV = ΔP PV ·σ PV

[0102] In the formula, η wind is the wind power system output coefficient determination index; η PV is the photovoltaic system output coefficient determination index;

[0103] S9. Complete the determination of the new energy output coefficient of the target provincial power grid based on the new energy output coefficient determination index obtained in step S8; specifically, it includes the following steps:

[0104] Complete the determination of the new energy output coefficient of the target provincial power grid according to the new energy output coefficient determination index obtained in step S8 by using the following rules:

[0105] η wind The smaller the value, the higher the reliability of the empirical value of the wind power system output coefficient of the target provincial power grid; otherwise, the lower the reliability of the empirical value of the wind power system output coefficient of the target provincial power grid;

[0106] η PV The smaller the value, the higher the reliability of the empirical value of the photovoltaic system output coefficient of the target provincial power grid; otherwise, the lower the reliability of the empirical value of the photovoltaic system output coefficient of the target provincial power grid.

[0107] The following further illustrates the method of the present invention in conjunction with an embodiment:

[0108] Analyze the output coefficients of wind power and photovoltaic power applicable to power supply and demand balance analysis during the midday peak electricity consumption period in summer (from July to August) of a certain provincial power grid. Based on historical power generation data, arrange the wind power and photovoltaic power output data from largest to smallest to obtain the output arrays of wind power and photovoltaic power during the corresponding periods in typical scenarios, such as Figure 2 as shown;

[0109] Calculate the output coefficients of wind power and photovoltaic power with a 95% confidence level during this period:

[0110]

[0111] Select the data points of wind power and photovoltaic power output corresponding to when the load is greater than 95% of the maximum load during the period and arrange them from largest to smallest to obtain data such as Figure 3 as shown;

[0112] Take the minimum value of the output power in the wind power and photovoltaic power arrays when the load is greater than 95% of the maximum load during the period, and calculate the output coefficients of wind power and photovoltaic power:

[0113]

[0114]

[0115] Take the output coefficients corresponding to when the maximum load appears during the midday period in summer and both wind power and photovoltaic power outputs can be guaranteed:

[0116]

[0117] Calculate the average value of the 95% confidence output coefficients, the output coefficients when the load is greater than 95% of the maximum load, and the output coefficients to ensure the output power. The average value of the wind power output coefficient is 0.49%, and the average value of the photovoltaic power output coefficient is 25.80%. For this provincial power grid, when conducting power supply and demand balance analysis, the output coefficient of wind power during the midday period in summer is taken as 0.49%, and the output coefficient of photovoltaic power during the midday period in summer is taken as 25.80%.

[0118] Solve the standard deviation of the output coefficient values of wind power and photovoltaic power. The standard deviation of the output coefficient value of wind power is 0.51, and the standard deviation of the output coefficient value of photovoltaic power is 16.76.

[0119] When conducting power supply and demand balance analysis for this provincial power grid, the simultaneous rates of wind power and photovoltaic power outputs during the midday period in summer are taken as 15% and 25% respectively according to empirical values.

[0120] The reliability evaluation indicators of wind power and photovoltaic power are obtained as 733 and 207 respectively:

[0121] η wind = ΔP wind ·σ wind= 9903.8 × |(0.49 - 15)%| × 0.51 ≈ 733

[0122] η PV = ΔP PV ·σ PV = 15404.1 × |(25.08 - 25)%| × 16.76 ≈ 207

[0123] It can be seen from the results that the deviation degree of the photovoltaic output coefficient is small, and the reliability of the original empirical value is good; the deviation degree of the wind power output coefficient is large, and the reliability of the original empirical value is poor. The extremely hot and windless scenario during the peak load period in summer is not considered, which is not conducive to the analysis of the power supply and demand balance.

[0124] Such as Figure 4The following is a schematic diagram of the functional modules of the system of the present invention: The system for implementing the method for determining the new energy output coefficient considering the power supply and demand balance of the provincial power grid disclosed in the present invention includes a data acquisition module, a time period selection module, a first calculation module, a second calculation module, a third calculation module, a parameter calculation module, a change calculation module, an index calculation module, and a parameter determination module; the data acquisition module and the time period selection module are connected in series, and the output end of the time period selection module is simultaneously connected to the first calculation module, the second calculation module, and the third calculation module; the outputs of the first calculation module, the second calculation module, and the third calculation module are simultaneously connected to the input end of the parameter calculation module; the output end of the parameter calculation module is successively connected in series with the change calculation module, the index calculation module, and the parameter determination module; the data acquisition module is used to acquire the data information of the target provincial power grid and upload the data information to the time period selection module; the time period selection module is used to select the analysis time period of the typical scenario to be analyzed according to the received data information and upload the data information to the first calculation module, the second calculation module, and the third calculation module; the first calculation module is used to acquire the historical new energy output data and select the confidence interval according to the received data information and the selected analysis time period, calculate the first output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario, and upload the data information to the parameter calculation module; the second calculation module is used to acquire the historical load data and select the load time period according to the received data information and the selected analysis time period, calculate the second output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario, and upload the data information to the parameter calculation module; the third calculation module is used to calculate the third output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario according to the received data information, the selected analysis time period, and the data information when the load is the largest and the new energy power generation system can ensure the output power, and upload the data information to the parameter calculation module; the parameter calculation module is used to calculate the average output coefficient and the standard deviation of the output coefficient of the new energy power generation system according to the received data information and the obtained first output coefficient, second output coefficient, and third output coefficient, and upload the data information to the change calculation module; the change calculation module is used to calculate the power change value of the new energy power generation system according to the received data information and the obtained average output coefficient and the empirical value of the new energy output coefficient, and upload the data information to the index calculation module; the index calculation module is used to calculate the new energy output coefficient determination index according to the received data information and the obtained standard deviation of the output coefficient and the power change value of the new energy power generation system, and upload the data information to the parameter determination module; the parameter determination module is used to complete the determination of the new energy output coefficient of the target provincial power grid according to the received data information and the obtained new energy output coefficient determination index.

Claims

1. A method for determining the new energy output coefficient considering the power supply - demand balance of the provincial power grid, comprising the following steps: S1. Obtain the data information of the target provincial power grid; S2. Select the analysis period of the typical scenario to be analyzed; S3. According to the analysis period selected in step S2, obtain the historical new - energy output data and select the confidence interval, and calculate the first output coefficient of the new - energy power generation system in the typical scenario; S4. According to the analysis period selected in step S2, obtain the historical load data and select the load period, and calculate the second output coefficient of the new - energy power generation system in the typical scenario; S5. According to the analysis period selected in step S2, based on the data information when the load is the largest and the new - energy power generation system can ensure the output power, calculate the third output coefficient of the new - energy power generation system in the typical scenario; S6. According to the calculated first output coefficient, second output coefficient and third output coefficient, calculate the average output coefficient and the standard deviation of the output coefficient of the new - energy power generation system; S7. According to the average output coefficient obtained in step S6 and the empirical value of the new - energy output coefficient, calculate the power change value of the new - energy power generation system; S8. According to the standard deviation of the output coefficient obtained in step S6 and the power change value of the new - energy power generation system obtained in step S7, calculate the determination index of the new - energy output coefficient; S9. According to the determination index of the new - energy output coefficient obtained in step S8, complete the determination of the new - energy output coefficient of the target provincial power grid.

2. The new energy output coefficient determination method considering the power supply and demand balance of the provincial power grid according to claim 1, characterized in that The step S3 of obtaining the historical new - energy output data and selecting the confidence interval according to the analysis period selected in step S2, and calculating the first output coefficient of the new - energy power generation system in the typical scenario specifically includes the following steps: According to the analysis period selected in step S2, obtain the new - energy output data within the analysis period and arrange them in the set order, denoted as Z wind = [Z wind,1 , Z wind,2 , …, Z wind,i , …, Z wind,n ​ Z PV = [Z PV,1 , Z PV,2 , …, Z PV,j , …, Z PV,m ​ where Z wind is the output array of the wind power system during the analysis period; Z wind,i is the i-th group of output data of the wind power system during the analysis period; n is the total number of wind power output data; Z PV is the output array of the photovoltaic system during the analysis period; Z PV,j is the j-th group of output data of the photovoltaic system during the analysis period; m is the total number of photovoltaic output data; Select the 95% confidence interval; Calculate the first output coefficient of the new - energy power generation system in the typical scenario: where λ wind,95％ is the first output coefficient of the wind power system in a typical scenario; Z wind,95％ is the output power corresponding to a guaranteed output confidence of 95% in the output array of the wind power system during the analysis period; S wind is the installed capacity of the wind power; λ PV,95％ is the first output coefficient of the photovoltaic system in a typical scenario; Z PV,95％ is the output power corresponding to a guaranteed output confidence of 95% in the output array of the photovoltaic system during the analysis period; S PV is the installed capacity of the photovoltaic.

3. The new energy output coefficient determination method considering the power supply and demand balance of provincial power grids according to claim 2, wherein The step S4 of obtaining the historical load data and selecting the load period according to the analysis period selected in step S2, and calculating the second output coefficient of the new - energy power generation system in the typical scenario specifically includes the following steps: According to the analysis period selected in step S2, obtain the new - energy output data corresponding to when the load of the target provincial power grid is greater than 95% of the maximum load of the analysis period, denoted as Z′ wind,95％,load = [Z′ wind,1 , Z′ wind,2 , …, Z′ wind,k , …, Z′ wind,N ​ Z′ PV,95％,load = [Z′ PV,1 , Z′ PV,2 , …, Z′ wind,l , …, Z′ PV,M ​ where Z' wind,95％,load is the wind power system output array corresponding to the target provincial grid load being greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; Z' wind,k is the k-th group of output data of the wind power system corresponding to the target provincial grid load being greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; N is the total number of output data of the wind power system corresponding to the target provincial grid load being greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; Z' PV,95％,load is the photovoltaic system output array corresponding to the target provincial grid load being greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; Z' wind,k is the l-th group of output data of the photovoltaic system corresponding to the target provincial grid load being greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; M is the total number of output data of the photovoltaic system corresponding to the target provincial grid load being greater than 95% of the maximum load during the analysis period; Select the minimum value of Z' wind,95％,load in Z' wind,min and select the minimum value of Z' PV,95％,load in Z' PV,min and calculate the second output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario, denoted as where λ wind,95％,load is the second output coefficient of the wind power system in a typical scenario; λ PV,95％,load is the second output coefficient of the photovoltaic system in a typical scenario.

4. The method for determining the new energy output coefficient considering the power supply-demand balance of the provincial power grid according to claim 3, characterized in that The step S5 of calculating the third output coefficient of the new - energy power generation system in the typical scenario according to the data information when the load is the largest and the new - energy power generation system can ensure the output power according to the analysis period selected in step S2 specifically includes the following steps: According to the analysis period selected in step S2, obtain the data information when the load is the largest and the output power of the new - energy power generation system can be ensured, and calculate the third output coefficient of the new - energy power generation system in the typical scenario: where λ wind,gurantee is the third output coefficient of the wind power system in the typical scenario; P wind,gurantee is the guaranteed output power of the wind power system when the load is maximum during the analysis period; λ PV,gurantee is the third output coefficient of the photovoltaic system in the typical scenario; P PV,gurantee is the guaranteed output power of the photovoltaic system when the load is maximum during the analysis period.

5. The new energy output coefficient determination method considering the power supply and demand balance of the provincial power grid according to claim 4, characterized in that The step S6 of calculating the average output coefficient and the standard deviation of the output coefficient of the new - energy power generation system according to the calculated first output coefficient, second output coefficient and third output coefficient specifically includes the following steps: Calculate the average output coefficient λ of the wind power system wind,average For Calculate the average output coefficient λ of the photovoltaic system PV,average For Calculate the standard deviation σ of the output coefficient of the wind power system wind be Calculate the standard deviation σ of the output coefficient of the photovoltaic system PV is 6. The method for determining the new energy output coefficient considering the power supply and demand balance of the provincial power grid according to claim 5, wherein Calculating a power change value of the new energy power generation system according to the empirical value of the average output coefficient and the new energy output coefficient obtained in step S6 in step S7, specifically including the following steps: Calculating a power change value of the new energy power generation system according to the empirical value of the average output coefficient and the new energy output coefficient obtained in step S6, expressed as ΔP wind = |λ wind,average - λ wind,exp | · S wind ΔP PV = |λ PV,average - λ PV,exp |·S PV where ΔP wind is the power change value of the wind power system; λ wind,exp is the empirical value of the output coefficient of the wind power system; ΔP PV is the power change value of the photovoltaic system; λ PV,exp is the empirical value of the output coefficient of the photovoltaic system.

7. The method for determining the new energy output coefficient considering the power supply and demand balance of the provincial power grid according to claim 6, characterized in that Calculating a new energy output coefficient determination index according to the standard deviation of the output coefficient obtained in step S6 and the power change value of the new energy power generation system obtained in step S7 in step S8, specifically including the following steps: Calculating a new energy output coefficient determination index according to the standard deviation of the output coefficient obtained in step S6 and the power change value of the new energy power generation system obtained in step S7, expressed as η wind = ΔP wind · σ wind η PV = ΔP PV · σ PV where η wind is the determination index of the output coefficient of the wind power system; η PV is the determination index of the output coefficient of the photovoltaic system.

8. The new energy output coefficient determination method considering the power supply and demand balance of the provincial power grid according to claim 7, characterized in that Completing the determination of the new energy output coefficient of the target provincial power grid according to the new energy output coefficient determination index obtained in step S8 in step S9, specifically including the following steps: Completing the determination of the new energy output coefficient of the target provincial power grid according to the new energy output coefficient determination index obtained in step S8 by using the following rules: η wind The smaller the value is, the higher the reliability of the empirical value of the wind power system output coefficient of the target provincial power grid is determined; otherwise, the lower the reliability of the empirical value of the wind power system output coefficient of the target provincial power grid is determined. η PV The smaller the value is, the higher the reliability of the empirical value of the PV system output coefficient of the target provincial power grid is determined; otherwise, the lower the reliability of the empirical value of the PV system output coefficient of the target provincial power grid is determined.

9. A system for implementing the method for determining the new energy output coefficient considering the power supply and demand balance of the provincial power grid according to any one of claims 1 to 8, characterized in that Including a data acquisition module, a time period selection module, a first calculation module, a second calculation module, a third calculation module, a parameter calculation module, a change calculation module, an index calculation module, and a parameter determination module; The data acquisition module and the time period selection module are connected in series, and the output end of the time period selection module is simultaneously connected to the first calculation module, the second calculation module, and the third calculation module; the outputs of the first calculation module, the second calculation module, and the third calculation module are simultaneously connected to the input end of the parameter calculation module; the output end of the parameter calculation module is successively connected in series with the change calculation module, the index calculation module, and the parameter determination module; the data acquisition module is used to acquire data information of the target provincial power grid and upload the data information to the time period selection module; the time period selection module is used to select an analysis time period of a typical scenario to be analyzed according to the received data information and upload the data information to the first calculation module, the second calculation module, and the third calculation module; The first calculation module is used to acquire historical new energy output data and select a confidence interval according to the received data information and the selected analysis time period, calculate a first output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario, and upload the data information to the parameter calculation module; The second calculation module is used to acquire historical load data and select a load time period according to the received data information and the selected analysis time period, calculate a second output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario, and upload the data information to the parameter calculation module; The third calculation module is used to calculate a third output coefficient of the new energy power generation system in the typical scenario according to the received data information, the selected analysis time period, and the data information when the load is the largest and the new energy power generation system can ensure the output power, and upload the data information to the parameter calculation module; The parameter calculation module is used to calculate an average output coefficient and a standard deviation of the output coefficient of the new energy power generation system according to the received data information and the obtained first output coefficient, second output coefficient, and third output coefficient, and upload the data information to the change calculation module; The change calculation module is used to calculate the power change value of the new energy power generation system based on the received data information and the empirical values of the obtained average output coefficient and new energy output coefficient, and upload the data information to the index calculation module; The index calculation module is used to calculate the new energy output coefficient determination index based on the received data information and the obtained standard deviation of the output coefficient and the power change value of the new energy power generation system, and upload the data information to the parameter determination module; The parameter determination module is used to complete the determination of the new energy output coefficient of the target provincial power grid based on the received data information and the obtained new energy output coefficient determination index.

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