Intelligent early warning method and system for imported coal delay

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of coal carrier management, and discloses an intelligent early warning method and system for imported coal delay, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining ideal navigation information; determining an ideal data acquisition point, acquiring navigation route weather environment data, and obtaining a navigation route weather environment data set; fitting a navigation route weather environment data set curve to obtain a navigation route weather environment data curve, and calculating a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor; normalizing the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors to obtain a normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence, and constructing the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; the method comprises the following steps: calculating weather environment factors of a multi-direction navigation route, determining environment delay prediction navigation days, sending out delay early warning, comprehensively analyzing a complex marine environment, accurately predicting the delay days of an imported coal carrier caused by the complex marine environment, and improving the prediction precision and prediction efficiency of the delay days. And the delay condition of the imported coal carrier caused by the complex marine environment can be visually reflected.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of coal carrier management, and in particular to an intelligent early warning method and system for delayed imported coal. Background Art

[0002] Import coal carriers are bulk carriers specifically designed to transport imported coal, operating in a one-way manner. In the modern maritime industry, import coal carriers serve as crucial logistics tools, carrying the critical task of transporting coal resources worldwide. Their design and operation are designed to ensure the safe and efficient transportation of imported coal from its source to its destination. However, the sailing time of import coal carriers is affected by a variety of external factors, which not only affect shipping efficiency but also directly impact the stability and cost control of the entire supply chain.

[0003] Traditional coal ship delay prediction methods mainly rely on historical data and empirical models. Although this method can provide a reference to a certain extent, it is powerless when faced with complex and changing environmental factors. It brings great difficulties to accurately predicting the delay time of imported coal ships arriving at coal unloading ports. The prediction accuracy is too low to judge the impact of the complex maritime environment on navigation delay time. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The embodiments of the present invention provide an intelligent early warning method and system for delays in imported coal. The present invention can comprehensively analyze the complex maritime environment of imported coal ships, accurately predict the number of days of delay for imported coal ships caused by the complex maritime environment, improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency of the number of days of delay for imported coal ships, and intuitively reflect the delay of imported coal ships caused by the complex maritime environment.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides an intelligent early warning method for delayed imported coal, comprising: Determining an import coal ship and a coal unloading port, and obtaining ideal navigation information for the import coal ship to arrive at the coal unloading port, wherein the ideal navigation information includes an ideal departure time, an ideal arrival time, and an ideal navigation route of the import coal ship; determining a plurality of ideal data acquisition points based on the ideal departure time and the ideal arrival time, acquiring a plurality of navigation route weather environment data of the ideal navigation route based on the ideal data acquisition points, and initializing the navigation route weather environment data to obtain a plurality of navigation route weather environment data sets; performing curve fitting on the navigation route weather environment data set based on the ideal data acquisition point to obtain a navigation route weather environment data curve, performing a preliminary analysis on the navigation route weather environment data curve, and calculating a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set based on the preliminary analysis result; Normalizing the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors corresponding to all navigation route weather environment data sets to obtain a normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence, and constructing a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence based on the normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; The weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing route are calculated according to the weather environment factor sequence of the unidirectional sailing route, and the predicted sailing days of environmental delay for the imported coal carrier to arrive at the coal unloading port are determined based on the weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing route, and a delay warning is issued.

[0006] Furthermore, when a plurality of navigation route weather environment data of the ideal navigation route is obtained based on the ideal data acquisition point, and the navigation route weather environment data are initialized to obtain a plurality of navigation route weather environment data sets, the method includes: Performing data cleaning on all navigation route weather environment data, wherein the data cleaning includes deleting invalid environment data, duplicate environment data, and erroneous environment data in the navigation route weather environment data; Data extraction is performed on the cleaned navigation route weather environment data to obtain multiple navigation route weather environment data sets, wherein the data extraction includes classifying the cleaned navigation route weather environment data according to data categories.

[0007] Furthermore, before curve fitting is performed on the navigation route weather environment data set based on the ideal data acquisition point to obtain the navigation route weather environment data curve, the method further includes: Obtaining preset navigation route weather environment data corresponding to each navigation route weather environment data set, and processing each navigation route weather environment data set according to the preset navigation route weather environment data; Determine whether all navigation route weather environment data sets are smaller than corresponding preset navigation route weather environment data; if so, generate an environment no-impact flag for the import coal carrier; If not, curve fitting is performed on the navigation route weather environment data set to obtain a navigation route weather environment data curve.

[0008] Furthermore, when performing a preliminary analysis on the navigation route weather environment data curve and calculating the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set based on the preliminary analysis result, the method includes: Traversing the navigation route weather environment data on the navigation route weather environment data curve to determine whether there is a curve fitting point equal to the preset navigation route weather environment data; if not, using all the navigation route weather environment data as the navigation route weather environment data to be calculated; Calculating the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set according to the navigation route weather environment data to be calculated; If so, generate a curve fitting point mark for the corresponding curve fitting point; Determining the number of the curve fitting point mark, and when the number of the mark is 1, using the curve fitting point mark as the first curve fitting point mark to be processed, and using the weather environment data of the navigation route between the initial ideal data acquisition point and the first curve fitting point mark to be processed as the first weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated; The weather environment data of the navigation route between the last ideal data acquisition point and the first to-be-processed curve fitting point mark is used as the second to-be-calculated weather environment data of the navigation route; Calculating a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment dataset according to the first navigation route weather environment data to be calculated and the second navigation route weather environment data to be calculated; When the number of the marks is greater than 1, the mark of the curve fitting point closest to the last ideal data acquisition point is selected as the second curve fitting point to be processed; Using the weather environment data of the navigation route between the initial ideal data acquisition point and the second to-be-processed curve fitting point as the third to-be-calculated weather environment data of the navigation route; Using the weather environment data of the navigation route between the last ideal data acquisition point and the second to-be-processed curve fitting point as the fourth to-be-calculated weather environment data of the navigation route; The unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set is calculated according to the third navigation route weather environment data to be calculated and the fourth navigation route weather environment data to be calculated.

[0009] Furthermore, when calculating the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set according to the navigation route weather environment data to be calculated, the method includes: Extracting weather environment data of the initial navigation route to be calculated corresponding to the initial ideal data acquisition point; Extracting weather environment data of the final navigation route to be calculated corresponding to the final ideal data acquisition point; Calculating a difference between the initial weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated and the final weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated; The weather environment factor of the one-way navigation route corresponding to the navigation route weather environment dataset is calculated according to the following formula: ; Among them, s1 is the weather environment factor of the unidirectional navigation route calculated based on the weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated, a is the number of weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated, e is a constant, g d is the weather environment data of the dth navigation route to be calculated, and f is the difference of the weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated.

[0010] Furthermore, when calculating the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set according to the first navigation route weather environment data to be calculated and the second navigation route weather environment data to be calculated, the method includes: Determining weather environment data of the first to-be-calculated navigation route that is closest to the first to-be-processed curve fitting point, and using the data as weather environment data close to the first to-be-calculated navigation route; Determining weather environment data of a first navigation route to be calculated corresponding to the initial ideal data acquisition point; Calculating a difference between the weather environment data of the first to-be-calculated navigation route and the initial weather environment data of the first to-be-calculated navigation route; Determining weather environment data of a second to-be-calculated navigation route that is closest to the first to-be-processed curve fitting point, and using the weather environment data close to the second to-be-calculated navigation route; Determining weather environment data for a second to-be-calculated navigation route corresponding to the last ideal data acquisition point; Calculating a difference in weather environment data for the second to-be-calculated navigation route between the weather environment data close to the second to-be-calculated navigation route and the weather environment data for the last second to-be-calculated navigation route; The weather environment factor of the one-way navigation route corresponding to the navigation route weather environment dataset is calculated according to the following formula: ; Among them, s2 is the weather environment factor of the unidirectional navigation route calculated based on the weather environment data of the first navigation route to be calculated and the weather environment data of the second navigation route to be calculated, h1 is the first calculation coefficient, h2 is the second calculation coefficient, h1+h1=1, h1>h2, a2 is the number of weather environment data of the first navigation route to be calculated, k1 j is the weather environment data of the jth first navigation route to be calculated, f2 is the difference of the weather environment data of the first navigation route to be calculated, a3 is the number of weather environment data of the second navigation route to be calculated, k2 x is the xth weather environment data of the second navigation route to be calculated, and f3 is the difference of the weather environment data of the second navigation route to be calculated.

[0011] Furthermore, when constructing a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence according to the normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence, the method includes: Calculating the normalized sequence mean and normalized sequence variance corresponding to the normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; Extracting all unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors that are greater than the normalized mean value to construct a first sub-unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; Extracting all unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors that are smaller than the normalized sequence variance to construct a second sub-unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; Determine whether the first sub-sequence of unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors and the second sub-sequence of unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors have an intersection unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor; If not, fusing the first sub-unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence and the second sub-unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence to obtain the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; If so, the weather environment factors of the intersection unidirectional navigation routes are repeatedly extracted; The repeatedly extracted intersection one-way navigation route weather environment factors, the remaining one-way navigation route weather environment factors in the first sub-one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence, and the remaining one-way navigation route weather environment factors in the second sub-one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence are fused to obtain the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence.

[0012] Furthermore, when calculating the weather environment factors of the multi-directional navigation routes according to the weather environment factor sequence of the unidirectional navigation routes, the method includes: The weather environment factors of the multi-directional navigation route are calculated according to the following formula: ; Among them, v is the weather environment factor of the multi-directional navigation route, n is the number of weather environment factors of the single-directional navigation route in the weather environment factor sequence of the single-directional navigation route, q i is the i-th one-way navigation route weather environment factor in the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence, e is a constant, w1 is the maximum one-way navigation route weather environment factor in the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence, w2 is the minimum one-way navigation route weather environment factor in the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence, and r is the standard deviation corresponding to the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence.

[0013] Furthermore, when determining the predicted number of sailing days for environmental delay of the imported coal carrier arriving at the coal unloading port based on the weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing routes, the method includes: The weather environment factors of the multi-directional navigation routes are traversed on the factor-day mapping table to determine the days corresponding to the weather environment factors of the multi-directional navigation routes and use them as the environmental delay prediction sailing days of the coal unloading port.

[0014] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention also provides an intelligent early warning system for delayed imported coal, comprising: an information acquisition module, configured to determine an import coal ship and a coal unloading port, and acquire ideal navigation information of the import coal ship arriving at the coal unloading port, wherein the ideal navigation information includes an ideal departure time, an ideal arrival time, and an ideal navigation route of the import coal ship; a data processing module, configured to determine a plurality of ideal data acquisition points based on the ideal departure time and the ideal arrival time, acquire a plurality of navigation route weather environment data of the ideal navigation route based on the ideal data acquisition points, and initialize the navigation route weather environment data to obtain a plurality of navigation route weather environment data sets; a factor calculation module, configured to perform curve fitting on the navigation route weather environment data set based on an ideal data acquisition point to obtain a navigation route weather environment data curve, perform a preliminary analysis on the navigation route weather environment data curve, and calculate a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set based on the preliminary analysis result; a sequence construction module, configured to normalize the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors corresponding to all navigation route weather environment data sets to obtain a normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence, and construct a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence based on the normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; The delay prediction module is used to calculate the weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing route according to the weather environment factor sequence of the unidirectional sailing route, determine the predicted sailing days of environmental delay for the imported coal carrier to arrive at the coal unloading port based on the weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing route, and issue a delay warning.

[0015] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects: The present invention discloses an intelligent early warning method and system for delays in imported coal. The method comprises the following steps: obtaining ideal navigation information; determining an ideal data acquisition point, obtaining weather environment data of the navigation route, and obtaining a navigation route weather environment data set; curve fitting the navigation route weather environment data set to obtain a navigation route weather environment data curve, and calculating a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor; normalizing the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor to obtain a normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence, and constructing a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; calculating multi-directional navigation route weather environment factors, determining a predicted number of sailing days due to environmental delays, issuing a delay warning, comprehensively analyzing the complex maritime environment, accurately predicting the number of delay days for imported coal carriers caused by the complex maritime environment, improving the prediction accuracy and efficiency of the number of delay days, and intuitively reflecting the delay situation of imported coal carriers due to the complex maritime environment. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0016] Various other advantages and benefits will become apparent to those skilled in the art upon reading the detailed description of the preferred embodiment below. The accompanying drawings are for illustration purposes only and are not to be considered as limiting the present invention. The same reference symbols are used throughout the drawings to represent the same components. In the drawings: Figure 1 A schematic diagram showing a process of an intelligent early warning method for delayed imported coal according to an embodiment of the present invention is shown; Figure 2 A structural diagram of an intelligent early warning system for delay of imported coal in an embodiment of the present invention is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0017] The following embodiments of the present invention are described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples. The following embodiments are used to illustrate the present invention but are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention.

[0018] In the description of this application, it should be understood that the terms "center", "up", "down", "front", "back", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inside", "outside", etc., indicating the orientation or position relationship, are based on the orientation or position relationship shown in the accompanying drawings, and are only for the convenience of describing this application and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the device or element referred to must have a specific orientation, be constructed and operated in a specific orientation, and therefore cannot be understood as a limitation on this application.

[0019] The terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly specifying the number of the technical features being referred to. Thus, a feature specified as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of such features. Throughout this application, unless otherwise specified, "plurality" means two or more.

[0020] In the description of this application, it should be noted that, unless otherwise expressly specified or limited, the terms "mounted," "connected," and "connected" should be understood in a broad sense. For example, they can refer to fixed, detachable, or integral connections; mechanical or electrical connections; direct or indirect connections through an intermediate medium; and internal communication between two components. Those skilled in the art will understand the specific meanings of the above terms in this application based on the specific circumstances.

[0021] The following is a description of preferred embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0022] like Figure 1 As shown, an embodiment of the present invention discloses an intelligent early warning method for delayed imported coal, comprising: S110: Determine an import coal ship and a coal unloading port, and obtain ideal navigation information of the import coal ship arriving at the coal unloading port, wherein the ideal navigation information includes an ideal departure time, an ideal arrival time, and an ideal navigation route of the import coal ship; In this embodiment, before departure, the imported coal carrier will plan in advance the ideal departure time, ideal arrival time and ideal sailing route. The ideal departure time is the best departure time for the imported coal carrier, the ideal arrival time is the time when the imported coal carrier arrives at the coal unloading port, and the ideal sailing route is an ideal sailing route that comprehensively considers multiple factors such as the shortest distance, the least fuel consumption, and the lowest risk.

[0023] S120: Determine multiple ideal data acquisition points based on the ideal departure time and the ideal arrival time, acquire multiple navigation route weather environment data of the ideal navigation route based on the ideal data acquisition points, and initialize the navigation route weather environment data to obtain multiple navigation route weather environment data sets; In some embodiments of the present application, when acquiring multiple navigation route weather environment data of the ideal navigation route based on the ideal data acquisition point and initializing the navigation route weather environment data to obtain multiple navigation route weather environment data sets, the method includes: Performing data cleaning on all navigation route weather environment data, wherein the data cleaning includes deleting invalid environment data, duplicate environment data, and erroneous environment data in the navigation route weather environment data; Data extraction is performed on the cleaned navigation route weather environment data to obtain multiple navigation route weather environment data sets, wherein the data extraction includes classifying the cleaned navigation route weather environment data according to data categories.

[0024] In this embodiment, the ideal sailing days for the import coal ship can be determined based on the ideal departure time and the ideal arrival time. The ideal sailing days are used as ideal data acquisition points, and each day is an ideal data acquisition point. For example, if the ideal sailing days are 10 days, then there are 10 ideal data acquisition points.

[0025] In this embodiment, the navigation route weather environment data refers to the complex weather environment encountered by the import coal ship during navigation, including hurricane intensity, rainstorm level, current intensity, sea surge height, etc., which are not shown one by one here. The navigation route weather environment data can be obtained through meteorological departments, marine monitoring agencies or local meteorological websites.

[0026] In this embodiment, data extraction refers to extracting all data of the same type, such as extracting the hurricane intensity corresponding to each ideal data acquisition point and constructing a navigation route weather environment dataset. Extracting the ocean current intensity corresponding to each ideal data acquisition point and constructing a navigation route weather environment dataset.

[0027] The beneficial effects of the above technical solution are: the present invention can ensure data accuracy by deleting invalid environmental data, duplicate environmental data and erroneous environmental data, and by classifying the cleaned navigation route weather environmental data, multiple navigation route weather environmental data sets can be accurately obtained, laying the foundation for subsequent calculations.

[0028] S130: performing curve fitting on the navigation route weather environment data set based on the ideal data acquisition point to obtain a navigation route weather environment data curve, performing preliminary analysis on the navigation route weather environment data curve, and calculating a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set based on the preliminary analysis result; In this embodiment, curve fitting is performed with the ideal data acquisition point as the horizontal coordinate and the weather environment data of the navigation route as the vertical coordinate. For example, the horizontal coordinate corresponds to 1 for the first ideal data acquisition point and 2 for the second ideal data acquisition point. The rest are not shown one by one.

[0029] In some embodiments of the present application, before curve fitting is performed on the navigation route weather environment dataset based on the ideal data acquisition point to obtain the navigation route weather environment data curve, the method further includes: Obtaining preset navigation route weather environment data corresponding to each navigation route weather environment data set, and processing each navigation route weather environment data set according to the preset navigation route weather environment data; Determine whether all navigation route weather environment data sets are smaller than corresponding preset navigation route weather environment data; if so, generate an environment no-impact flag for the import coal carrier; If not, curve fitting is performed on the navigation route weather environment data set to obtain a navigation route weather environment data curve.

[0030] In this embodiment, each sailing route weather environment data set corresponds to a preset sailing route weather environment data. For example, if the sailing route weather environment data set is composed of hurricane intensity, the corresponding preset sailing route weather environment data can be level 12. The setting of the preset sailing route weather environment data can also be adjusted according to the size of the imported coal carrier. It can be set in combination with actual conditions and is not mandatory here.

[0031] In this embodiment, when all navigation route weather environment data sets are smaller than the corresponding preset navigation route weather environment data, it is determined that the complex maritime environment will not affect the sailing days of the import coal carrier.

[0032] The beneficial effect of the above technical solution is that the present invention can realize the initial judgment of the number of days of delay in sailing of imported coal ships.

[0033] In some embodiments of the present application, when performing a preliminary analysis on the navigation route weather environment data curve and calculating the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set based on the preliminary analysis result, the process includes: Traversing the navigation route weather environment data on the navigation route weather environment data curve to determine whether there is a curve fitting point equal to the preset navigation route weather environment data; if not, using all the navigation route weather environment data as the navigation route weather environment data to be calculated; Calculating the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set according to the navigation route weather environment data to be calculated; If so, generate a curve fitting point mark for the corresponding curve fitting point; Determining the number of the curve fitting point mark, and when the number of the mark is 1, using the curve fitting point mark as the first curve fitting point mark to be processed, and using the weather environment data of the navigation route between the initial ideal data acquisition point and the first curve fitting point mark to be processed as the first weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated; The weather environment data of the navigation route between the last ideal data acquisition point and the first to-be-processed curve fitting point mark is used as the second to-be-calculated weather environment data of the navigation route; Calculating a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment dataset according to the first navigation route weather environment data to be calculated and the second navigation route weather environment data to be calculated; When the number of the marks is greater than 1, the mark of the curve fitting point closest to the last ideal data acquisition point is selected as the second curve fitting point to be processed; Using the weather environment data of the navigation route between the initial ideal data acquisition point and the second to-be-processed curve fitting point as the third to-be-calculated weather environment data of the navigation route; Using the weather environment data of the navigation route between the last ideal data acquisition point and the second to-be-processed curve fitting point as the fourth to-be-calculated weather environment data of the navigation route; The unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set is calculated according to the third navigation route weather environment data to be calculated and the fourth navigation route weather environment data to be calculated.

[0034] In this embodiment, the curve fitting points are obtained based on the ideal data acquisition points and the weather environment data of the navigation route.

[0035] In this embodiment, the number of curve fitting point marks may be one or two or more, which can be determined based on the specific situation.

[0036] In this embodiment, the initial ideal data acquisition point is the first ideal data acquisition point mentioned above, that is, the first day.

[0037] In this embodiment, the first to-be-calculated navigation route weather environment data does not include the navigation route weather environment data corresponding to the first to-be-processed curve fitting point mark.

[0038] In this embodiment, the last ideal data acquisition point is the 10th ideal data acquisition point mentioned above, that is, the 10th day.

[0039] In this embodiment, the second to-be-calculated navigation route weather environment data does not include the navigation route weather environment data corresponding to the first to-be-processed curve fitting point mark.

[0040] In this embodiment, the closest point is judged in the order of the above-mentioned day 1, day 2, day 3, ..., day 10. When determining the curve fitting point mark closest to the last ideal data acquisition point, the judgment is made from day 9 to day 1.

[0041] In this embodiment, the third to-be-calculated navigation route weather environment data does not include the navigation route weather environment data corresponding to the second to-be-processed curve fitting point mark.

[0042] In this embodiment, the fourth to-be-calculated navigation route weather environment data does not include the navigation route weather environment data corresponding to the second to-be-processed curve fitting point mark.

[0043] The beneficial effect of the above technical solution is that the present invention provides three different calculation methods for the weather environment factors of a one-way navigation route, which can be calculated based on the actual situation, effectively ensuring the calculation accuracy and comprehensiveness of the weather environment factors of a one-way navigation route, avoiding calculation errors, and providing a calculation premise for the calculation of weather environment factors of multi-directional navigation routes.

[0044] In some embodiments of the present application, when calculating the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set according to the navigation route weather environment data to be calculated, the method includes: Extracting weather environment data of the initial navigation route to be calculated corresponding to the initial ideal data acquisition point; Extracting weather environment data of the final navigation route to be calculated corresponding to the final ideal data acquisition point; Calculating a difference between the initial weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated and the final weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated; The weather environment factor of the one-way navigation route corresponding to the navigation route weather environment dataset is calculated according to the following formula: ; Among them, s1 is the weather environment factor of the unidirectional navigation route calculated based on the weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated, a is the number of weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated, e is a constant, g d is the weather environment data of the dth navigation route to be calculated, and f is the difference of the weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated.

[0045] In this embodiment, the weather environment data of the navigation route corresponding to the initial ideal data acquisition point is used as the initial weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated.

[0046] In this embodiment, the navigation route weather environment data corresponding to the last ideal data acquisition point is used as the last navigation route weather environment data to be calculated.

[0047] In this embodiment, the difference in weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated refers to the absolute value of the difference.

[0048] The beneficial effect of the above technical solution is that the present invention calculates the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set based on the navigation route weather environment data to be calculated, and provides a first calculation method.

[0049] In some embodiments of the present application, when calculating the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set according to the first navigation route weather environment data to be calculated and the second navigation route weather environment data to be calculated, the method includes: Determining weather environment data of the first to-be-calculated navigation route that is closest to the first to-be-processed curve fitting point, and using the data as weather environment data close to the first to-be-calculated navigation route; Determining weather environment data of a first navigation route to be calculated corresponding to the initial ideal data acquisition point; Calculating a difference between the weather environment data of the first to-be-calculated navigation route and the initial weather environment data of the first to-be-calculated navigation route; Determining weather environment data of a second to-be-calculated navigation route that is closest to the first to-be-processed curve fitting point, and using the weather environment data close to the second to-be-calculated navigation route; Determining weather environment data for a second to-be-calculated navigation route corresponding to the last ideal data acquisition point; Calculating a difference in weather environment data for the second to-be-calculated navigation route between the weather environment data close to the second to-be-calculated navigation route and the weather environment data for the last second to-be-calculated navigation route; The weather environment factor of the one-way navigation route corresponding to the navigation route weather environment dataset is calculated according to the following formula: ; Among them, s2 is the weather environment factor of the unidirectional navigation route calculated based on the weather environment data of the first navigation route to be calculated and the weather environment data of the second navigation route to be calculated, h1 is the first calculation coefficient, h2 is the second calculation coefficient, h1+h1=1, h1>h2, a2 is the number of weather environment data of the first navigation route to be calculated, k1 j is the weather environment data of the jth first navigation route to be calculated, f2 is the difference of the weather environment data of the first navigation route to be calculated, a3 is the number of weather environment data of the second navigation route to be calculated, k2 x is the xth weather environment data of the second navigation route to be calculated, and f3 is the difference of the weather environment data of the second navigation route to be calculated.

[0050] In this embodiment, the navigation route weather environment data corresponding to the initial ideal data acquisition point is used as the first navigation route weather environment data to be calculated.

[0051] In this embodiment, the difference in weather environment data of the first to-be-calculated navigation route refers to the absolute value of the difference.

[0052] In this embodiment, the weather environment data of the navigation route corresponding to the last ideal data acquisition point is used as the second weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated.

[0053] In this embodiment, the difference in weather environment data of the second to-be-calculated navigation route refers to the absolute value of the difference.

[0054] The beneficial effect of the above technical solution is that the present invention calculates the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set based on the first navigation route weather environment data to be calculated and the second navigation route weather environment data to be calculated, providing a second calculation method.

[0055] In some embodiments of the present application, when calculating the one-way navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set based on the third navigation route weather environment data to be calculated and the fourth navigation route weather environment data to be calculated, the third navigation route weather environment data to be calculated that is closest to the second curve fitting point to be processed is determined, and used as the navigation route weather environment data close to the third navigation route to be calculated; the third navigation route weather environment data to be calculated corresponding to the initial ideal data acquisition point is determined; the difference between the third navigation route weather environment data close to the third navigation route to be calculated and the initial third navigation route weather environment data to be calculated is calculated; the fourth navigation route weather environment data to be calculated that is closest to the second curve fitting point to be processed is determined, and used as the navigation route weather environment data close to the fourth navigation route to be calculated; the fourth navigation route weather environment data to be calculated corresponding to the last ideal data acquisition point is determined; and the difference between the fourth navigation route weather environment data to be calculated that is close to the fourth navigation route weather environment data to be calculated and the last fourth navigation route weather environment data to be calculated is calculated. In order to save space and make the article concise, the specific calculation formula will not be repeated here. It is consistent with the one-way navigation route weather environment factor calculated based on the weather environment data of the first navigation route to be calculated and the weather environment data of the second navigation route to be calculated. The calculation variables can be adaptively replaced.

[0056] The beneficial effect of the above technical solution is that the present invention calculates the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set based on the third navigation route weather environment data to be calculated and the fourth navigation route weather environment data to be calculated, and provides a third calculation formula.

[0057] S140: normalizing the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors corresponding to all navigation route weather environment data sets to obtain a normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence, and constructing a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence based on the normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; In some embodiments of the present application, when constructing a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence according to the normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence, the process includes: Calculating the normalized sequence mean and normalized sequence variance corresponding to the normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; Extracting all unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors that are greater than the normalized mean value to construct a first sub-unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; Extracting all unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors that are smaller than the normalized sequence variance to construct a second sub-unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; Determine whether the first sub-sequence of unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors and the second sub-sequence of unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors have an intersection unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor; If not, fusing the first sub-unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence and the second sub-unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence to obtain the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; If so, the weather environment factors of the intersection unidirectional navigation routes are repeatedly extracted; The repeatedly extracted intersection one-way navigation route weather environment factors, the remaining one-way navigation route weather environment factors in the first sub-one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence, and the remaining one-way navigation route weather environment factors in the second sub-one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence are fused to obtain the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence.

[0058] In this embodiment, if the first sub-one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence and the second sub-one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence do not have an intersection one-way navigation route weather environment factor, and the second sub-one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence is Δp1, Δp2, Δp3, Δp4, Δp5, Δp6, and the first sub-one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence is Δp7, Δp8, Δp9, then the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence is Δp1, Δp2, Δp3, Δp4, Δp5, Δp6, Δp7, Δp8, Δp9. If the first sub-one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence and the second sub-one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence have an intersection one-way navigation route weather environment factor, and the second sub-one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence is Δp1, Δp2, Δp3, Δp4, Δp5, Δp6, such as the first sub-one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence is Δp4, Δp5, Δp6, Δp7, Δp8, Δp9, and the intersection one-way navigation route weather environment factor here is Δp4, Δp5, Δp6, then the intersection one-way navigation route weather environment factor is repeatedly extracted, that is, Δp4, Δp5, Δp6, Δp4, Δp5, Δp6, and finally, the obtained one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence is Δp1, Δp2, Δp3, Δp4, Δp5, Δp6, Δp4, Δp5, Δp6, Δp7, Δp8, Δp9.

[0059] The beneficial effect of the above technical solution is: the present invention ensures the determination accuracy of the weather environment factor sequence of the unidirectional navigation route by determining the weather environment factor sequence of the unidirectional navigation route on the one hand, and ensures the calculation accuracy of the weather environment factors of the multi-directional navigation route on the other hand, thereby reducing the determination error of the environmental delay prediction navigation days.

[0060] S150: Calculating the weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing route according to the weather environment factor sequence of the unidirectional sailing route, determining the predicted sailing days of environmental delay for the imported coal carrier to arrive at the coal unloading port based on the weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing route, and issuing a delay warning.

[0061] In some embodiments of the present application, when calculating the weather environment factors of the multi-directional navigation routes according to the weather environment factor sequence of the unidirectional navigation routes, the process includes: The weather environment factors of the multi-directional navigation route are calculated according to the following formula: ; Among them, v is the weather environment factor of the multi-directional navigation route, n is the number of weather environment factors of the single-directional navigation route in the weather environment factor sequence of the single-directional navigation route, q i is the i-th one-way navigation route weather environment factor in the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence, e is a constant, w1 is the maximum one-way navigation route weather environment factor in the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence, w2 is the minimum one-way navigation route weather environment factor in the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence, and r is the standard deviation corresponding to the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence.

[0062] The beneficial effect of the above technical solution is: the present invention can calculate the weather environment factor of the unidirectional navigation route based on the weather environment data of each type of navigation route, and then calculate the weather environment factor of the unidirectional navigation route to obtain the weather environment factor of the multi-directional navigation route, thereby realizing a comprehensive analysis of the navigation route weather environment data, and intuitively understanding the delay of the imported coal ships caused by the navigation route weather environment data.

[0063] In some embodiments of the present application, when determining the predicted number of sailing days for environmental delay of the imported coal ship arriving at the coal unloading port based on the weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing routes, the method includes: The weather environment factors of the multi-directional navigation routes are traversed on the factor-day mapping table to determine the days corresponding to the weather environment factors of the multi-directional navigation routes and use them as the environmental delay prediction sailing days of the coal unloading port.

[0064] In this embodiment, the factor-day mapping table is pre-set, and each weather environment factor of a multi-directional navigation route corresponds to a number of days, which is the environmental delay predicted navigation day. The factor-day mapping table is mainly used to determine the environmental delay predicted navigation day.

[0065] The beneficial effects of the above technical solution are: the present invention comprehensively analyzes the complex maritime environment, accurately predicts the number of days of delay of imported coal ships caused by the complex maritime environment, improves the prediction accuracy and efficiency of the number of delay days, and intuitively reflects the delay of imported coal ships caused by the complex maritime environment.

[0066] In some embodiments of the present application, a delay warning is issued based on the predicted number of sailing days due to environmental delays.

[0067] In order to further illustrate the technical idea of the present invention, the technical solution of the present invention is now described in combination with specific application scenarios.

[0068] Correspondingly, such as Figure 2 As shown, the present application also provides an intelligent early warning system for delayed imported coal, including: an information acquisition module, configured to determine an import coal ship and a coal unloading port, and acquire ideal navigation information of the import coal ship arriving at the coal unloading port, wherein the ideal navigation information includes an ideal departure time, an ideal arrival time, and an ideal navigation route of the import coal ship; a data processing module, configured to determine a plurality of ideal data acquisition points based on the ideal departure time and the ideal arrival time, acquire a plurality of navigation route weather environment data of the ideal navigation route based on the ideal data acquisition points, and initialize the navigation route weather environment data to obtain a plurality of navigation route weather environment data sets; a factor calculation module, configured to perform curve fitting on the navigation route weather environment data set based on an ideal data acquisition point to obtain a navigation route weather environment data curve, perform a preliminary analysis on the navigation route weather environment data curve, and calculate a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set based on the preliminary analysis result; a sequence construction module, configured to normalize the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors corresponding to all navigation route weather environment data sets to obtain a normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence, and construct a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence based on the normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; The delay prediction module is used to calculate the weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing route according to the weather environment factor sequence of the unidirectional sailing route, determine the predicted sailing days of environmental delay for the imported coal carrier to arrive at the coal unloading port based on the weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing route, and issue a delay warning.

[0069] In the description of the above embodiments, specific features, structures, materials or characteristics may be combined in an appropriate manner in any one or more embodiments or examples.

[0070] While the present invention has been described above with reference to exemplary embodiments, various modifications may be made and equivalent components may be substituted without departing from the scope of the present invention. In particular, the various features of the disclosed embodiments may be combined with one another in any manner, provided no structural conflicts exist. These combinations are not fully described in this specification for reasons of space and resource conservation.

[0071] Those skilled in the art will understand that the above are merely preferred embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art will still be able to modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments or replace some of the technical features therein with equivalents. Any modifications, equivalent replacements, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention shall be included within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. An intelligent early warning method for delayed imported coal, characterized in that: include: Determining an import coal ship and a coal unloading port, and obtaining ideal navigation information for the import coal ship to arrive at the coal unloading port, wherein the ideal navigation information includes an ideal departure time, an ideal arrival time, and an ideal navigation route of the import coal ship; determining a plurality of ideal data acquisition points based on the ideal departure time and the ideal arrival time, acquiring a plurality of navigation route weather environment data of the ideal navigation route based on the ideal data acquisition points, and initializing the navigation route weather environment data to obtain a plurality of navigation route weather environment data sets; performing curve fitting on the navigation route weather environment data set based on the ideal data acquisition point to obtain a navigation route weather environment data curve, performing a preliminary analysis on the navigation route weather environment data curve, and calculating a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set based on the preliminary analysis result; Normalizing the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors corresponding to all navigation route weather environment data sets to obtain a normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence, and constructing a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence based on the normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; The weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing route are calculated according to the weather environment factor sequence of the unidirectional sailing route, and the predicted sailing days of environmental delay for the imported coal carrier to arrive at the coal unloading port are determined based on the weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing route, and a delay warning is issued.

2. The intelligent early warning method for delayed imported coal according to claim 1 is characterized in that: When a plurality of navigation route weather environment data of the ideal navigation route is acquired based on the ideal data acquisition point, and the navigation route weather environment data are initialized to obtain a plurality of navigation route weather environment data sets, the method includes: Performing data cleaning on all navigation route weather environment data, wherein the data cleaning includes deleting invalid environment data, duplicate environment data, and erroneous environment data in the navigation route weather environment data; Data extraction is performed on the cleaned navigation route weather environment data to obtain multiple navigation route weather environment data sets, wherein the data extraction includes classifying the cleaned navigation route weather environment data according to data categories.

3. The intelligent early warning method for delayed imported coal according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Before curve fitting is performed on the navigation route weather environment data set based on the ideal data acquisition point to obtain the navigation route weather environment data curve, the method further includes: Obtaining preset navigation route weather environment data corresponding to each navigation route weather environment data set, and processing each navigation route weather environment data set according to the preset navigation route weather environment data; Determine whether all navigation route weather environment data sets are smaller than corresponding preset navigation route weather environment data; if so, generate an environment no-impact flag for the import coal carrier; If not, curve fitting is performed on the navigation route weather environment data set to obtain a navigation route weather environment data curve.

4. The intelligent early warning method for delayed imported coal according to claim 1 is characterized in that: When performing a preliminary analysis on the navigation route weather environment data curve and calculating the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set based on the preliminary analysis result, the method includes: Traversing the navigation route weather environment data on the navigation route weather environment data curve to determine whether there is a curve fitting point equal to the preset navigation route weather environment data; if not, using all the navigation route weather environment data as the navigation route weather environment data to be calculated; Calculating the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set according to the navigation route weather environment data to be calculated; If so, generate a curve fitting point mark for the corresponding curve fitting point; Determining the number of the curve fitting point mark, and when the number of the mark is 1, using the curve fitting point mark as the first curve fitting point mark to be processed, and using the weather environment data of the navigation route between the initial ideal data acquisition point and the first curve fitting point mark to be processed as the first weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated; The weather environment data of the navigation route between the last ideal data acquisition point and the first to-be-processed curve fitting point mark is used as the second to-be-calculated weather environment data of the navigation route; Calculating a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment dataset according to the first navigation route weather environment data to be calculated and the second navigation route weather environment data to be calculated; When the number of the marks is greater than 1, the mark of the curve fitting point closest to the last ideal data acquisition point is selected as the second curve fitting point to be processed; Using the weather environment data of the navigation route between the initial ideal data acquisition point and the second to-be-processed curve fitting point as the third to-be-calculated weather environment data of the navigation route; Using the weather environment data of the navigation route between the last ideal data acquisition point and the second to-be-processed curve fitting point as the fourth to-be-calculated weather environment data of the navigation route; The unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set is calculated according to the third navigation route weather environment data to be calculated and the fourth navigation route weather environment data to be calculated.

5. The intelligent early warning method for delayed imported coal according to claim 4 is characterized in that: When calculating the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set according to the navigation route weather environment data to be calculated, the method includes: Extracting weather environment data of the initial navigation route to be calculated corresponding to the initial ideal data acquisition point; Extracting weather environment data of the final navigation route to be calculated corresponding to the final ideal data acquisition point; Calculating a difference between the initial weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated and the final weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated; The weather environment factor of the one-way navigation route corresponding to the navigation route weather environment dataset is calculated according to the following formula: ； Among them, s1 is the weather environment factor of the unidirectional navigation route calculated based on the weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated, a is the number of weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated, e is a constant, g d is the weather environment data of the dth navigation route to be calculated, and f is the difference of the weather environment data of the navigation route to be calculated.

6. The intelligent early warning method for delayed imported coal according to claim 4 is characterized in that: When calculating the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set according to the first navigation route weather environment data to be calculated and the second navigation route weather environment data to be calculated, the method includes: Determining weather environment data of the first to-be-calculated navigation route that is closest to the first to-be-processed curve fitting point, and using the data as weather environment data close to the first to-be-calculated navigation route; Determining weather environment data of a first navigation route to be calculated corresponding to the initial ideal data acquisition point; Calculating a difference between the weather environment data of the first to-be-calculated navigation route and the initial weather environment data of the first to-be-calculated navigation route; Determining weather environment data of a second to-be-calculated navigation route that is closest to the first to-be-processed curve fitting point, and using the weather environment data close to the second to-be-calculated navigation route; Determining weather environment data for a second to-be-calculated navigation route corresponding to the last ideal data acquisition point; Calculating a difference in weather environment data for the second to-be-calculated navigation route between the weather environment data close to the second to-be-calculated navigation route and the weather environment data for the last second to-be-calculated navigation route; The weather environment factor of the one-way navigation route corresponding to the navigation route weather environment dataset is calculated according to the following formula: ； Among them, s2 is the weather environment factor of the unidirectional navigation route calculated based on the weather environment data of the first navigation route to be calculated and the weather environment data of the second navigation route to be calculated, h1 is the first calculation coefficient, h2 is the second calculation coefficient, h1+h1=1, h1>h2, a2 is the number of weather environment data of the first navigation route to be calculated, k1 j is the weather environment data of the jth first navigation route to be calculated, f2 is the difference of the weather environment data of the first navigation route to be calculated, a3 is the number of weather environment data of the second navigation route to be calculated, k2 x is the xth weather environment data of the second navigation route to be calculated, and f3 is the difference of the weather environment data of the second navigation route to be calculated.

7. The intelligent early warning method for delayed imported coal according to claim 1 is characterized in that: When constructing a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence according to the normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence, the method includes: Calculating the normalized sequence mean and normalized sequence variance corresponding to the normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; Extracting all unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors that are greater than the normalized mean value to construct a first sub-unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; Extracting all unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors that are smaller than the normalized sequence variance to construct a second sub-unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; Determine whether the first sub-sequence of unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors and the second sub-sequence of unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors have an intersection unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor; If not, fusing the first sub-unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence and the second sub-unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence to obtain the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; If so, the weather environment factors of the intersection unidirectional navigation routes are repeatedly extracted; The repeatedly extracted intersection one-way navigation route weather environment factors, the remaining one-way navigation route weather environment factors in the first sub-one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence, and the remaining one-way navigation route weather environment factors in the second sub-one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence are fused to obtain the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence.

8. The intelligent early warning method for delayed imported coal according to claim 1 is characterized in that: When calculating the weather environment factors of the multi-directional navigation routes according to the weather environment factor sequence of the unidirectional navigation routes, the method includes: The weather environment factors of the multi-directional navigation route are calculated according to the following formula: ； Among them, v is the weather environment factor of the multi-directional navigation route, n is the number of weather environment factors of the single-directional navigation route in the weather environment factor sequence of the single-directional navigation route, q i is the i-th one-way navigation route weather environment factor in the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence, e is a constant, w1 is the maximum one-way navigation route weather environment factor in the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence, w2 is the minimum one-way navigation route weather environment factor in the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence, and r is the standard deviation corresponding to the one-way navigation route weather environment factor sequence.

9. The intelligent early warning method for delayed imported coal according to claim 1, characterized in that: When determining the predicted number of sailing days for environmental delay for the imported coal carrier to arrive at the coal unloading port based on the weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing routes, the method includes: The weather environment factors of the multi-directional navigation routes are traversed on the factor-day mapping table to determine the days corresponding to the weather environment factors of the multi-directional navigation routes and use them as the environmental delay prediction sailing days of the coal unloading port.

10. An intelligent early warning system for delayed imported coal, applied to the intelligent early warning method for delayed imported coal according to any one of claims 1 to 9, characterized in that: include: an information acquisition module, configured to determine an import coal ship and a coal unloading port, and acquire ideal navigation information of the import coal ship arriving at the coal unloading port, wherein the ideal navigation information includes an ideal departure time, an ideal arrival time, and an ideal navigation route of the import coal ship; a data processing module, configured to determine a plurality of ideal data acquisition points based on the ideal departure time and the ideal arrival time, acquire a plurality of navigation route weather environment data of the ideal navigation route based on the ideal data acquisition points, and initialize the navigation route weather environment data to obtain a plurality of navigation route weather environment data sets; a factor calculation module, configured to perform curve fitting on the navigation route weather environment data set based on an ideal data acquisition point to obtain a navigation route weather environment data curve, perform a preliminary analysis on the navigation route weather environment data curve, and calculate a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor corresponding to the navigation route weather environment data set based on the preliminary analysis result; a sequence construction module, configured to normalize the unidirectional navigation route weather environment factors corresponding to all navigation route weather environment data sets to obtain a normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence, and construct a unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence based on the normalized unidirectional navigation route weather environment factor sequence; The delay prediction module is used to calculate the weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing route according to the weather environment factor sequence of the unidirectional sailing route, determine the predicted sailing days of environmental delay for the imported coal carrier to arrive at the coal unloading port based on the weather environment factors of the multi-directional sailing route, and issue a delay warning.

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