Reservoir flood peak flow and time prediction method and system considering rainfall center movement

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of hydrological forecasting, and relates to a reservoir flood peak flow and time prediction method and system considering rainfall center movement. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring topographic data, historical meteorological data and historical runoff data of a target drainage basin; the target drainage basin is divided into a plurality of sub-drainage basins based on topographic data, hydrological models are constructed respectively, and parameters of the hydrological models of the sub-drainage basins are calibrated through historical meteorological data and historical runoff data; acquiring a moving track and rainfall intensity change of a rainfall center of the target drainage basin and real-time meteorological data and real-time runoff data of each sub-drainage basin, and inputting the moving track and the rainfall intensity change and the real-time meteorological data and the real-time runoff data into a hydrological model of the corresponding sub-drainage basin to obtain flood flow hydrograph corresponding to rainfall of a plurality of preset time steps; and superposing the flood flow hydrograph of a plurality of preset time steps to obtain a reservoir flood peak flow and time prediction result. According to the method, the flood prediction precision and reliability are improved, and a scientific basis is provided for flood scheduling and safety management of the hydropower station.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of hydrological forecasting, and relates to a method and system for predicting reservoir flood peak flow and time taking into account the movement of rainfall centers. Background Art

[0002] my country's hydropower stations are primarily located in the mountainous southwest, a region with complex climatic and hydrological conditions. Most hydropower stations have limited regulating reservoir capacity (typically no more than 10 meters), posing significant challenges to reservoir operation and flood control during the flood season. The accuracy of hydropower station flood forecasts directly impacts reservoir operation decisions, power generation planning, and flood control safety, necessitating an urgent need to improve forecast accuracy.

[0003] Traditional flood prediction methods typically assume that rainfall is evenly distributed within a watershed and calculate flood processes based on the average rainfall over the basin. However, this approach ignores the critical influence of the movement of rainfall centers on flood formation. In reality, rainfall is highly unevenly distributed spatially; rainfall centers can shift from upstream to downstream or vice versa, leading to significant differences in peak discharge and confluence times.

[0004] Existing flood prediction methods have the following problems in practical applications: (1) Insufficient flow prediction accuracy: Traditional methods use the average rainfall in the basin to calculate floods, but different rainfall distributions significantly affect peak flow. For example, rainfall in areas close to reservoirs has small runoff losses and larger peak flows; while rainfall far from reservoirs has large runoff losses and smaller peak flows.

[0005] (2) Insufficient time prediction accuracy: The direction of the rainfall center directly affects the speed of flood formation. For example, most rivers in my country flow from west to east. If heavy rain moves from downstream to upstream, the confluence time is shortened and floods form more quickly. Traditional models are difficult to accurately predict such situations, which affects the efficiency of emergency response.

[0006] (3) Difficulty in scheduling decisions: Due to the lack of high-precision flow forecast data, it is difficult for scheduling personnel to formulate the optimal flood discharge plan, which may cause the reservoir to operate beyond its limit or miss the best scheduling opportunity, increasing flood control risks.

[0007] Therefore, it is urgent to develop a new flood prediction method to provide a scientific basis for flood scheduling and safety management of hydropower stations. Summary of the Invention

[0008] To solve the problems in the prior art, the present invention provides a method and system for predicting reservoir flood peak flow and time taking into account the movement of rainfall center, which improves the accuracy and reliability of flood prediction and provides a scientific basis for flood scheduling and safety management of hydropower stations.

[0009] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions: In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for predicting reservoir peak flow and time taking into account the movement of rainfall centers, comprising the following steps: Obtain the topographic data, historical meteorological data, and historical runoff data of the target watershed; divide the target watershed into multiple sub-watersheds based on the topographic data; Constructing hydrological models for each of the plurality of sub-basins, wherein parameters of the hydrological models for each sub-basin are calibrated using historical meteorological data and historical runoff data corresponding to each sub-basin; Obtain the movement trajectory of the rainfall center and rainfall intensity changes in the target basin, real-time meteorological data of each sub-basin, and real-time runoff data of each sub-basin, and input them into the hydrological model of the corresponding sub-basin to obtain the flood flow process lines corresponding to rainfall at multiple preset time steps; By superimposing multiple flood flow process lines with preset time steps, the reservoir peak flow and time prediction results are obtained.

[0010] Preferably, the meteorological data includes rainfall and evaporation.

[0011] Preferably, the specific method for calibrating the parameters of the hydrological model of each sub-basin using the historical meteorological data and historical runoff data corresponding to each sub-basin is: dividing the historical meteorological data and historical runoff data into a training set and a test set, inputting the training set data of each sub-basin into the corresponding hydrological model to calibrate the parameters; inputting the test set data of each sub-basin into the calibrated hydrological model to obtain a predicted flood flow process line; comparing the predicted flood flow process line with the actual flood flow process line, and if the error exceeds a preset range, adjusting the parameters until the error is within the preset range.

[0012] Preferably, the method for determining the rainfall center is: obtaining the spatial area of ​​the rainfall cloud and the rainfall in the area, using a spatial interpolation algorithm to generate a watershed surface rainfall distribution map, and determining the rainfall center based on the watershed surface rainfall distribution map.

[0013] Preferably, the specific method for determining the rainfall center based on the basin surface rainfall distribution map is: determine the maximum rainfall point, and delineate the rainfall center with this point as the core, and the rainfall center is defined as a continuous spatial range where the rainfall ≥ a preset threshold.

[0014] Preferably, the method for determining the moving trajectory of the rainfall center is: reading the position range and rainfall amount of the rainfall center once every hour, and determining the moving trajectory of the rainfall center by using a linear interpolation method.

[0015] Preferably, when the moving trajectory of the rainfall center in the target basin and the change in rainfall intensity are input into the hydrological model of the corresponding sub-basin, if the rainfall center spans multiple sub-basins, the rainfall center is divided into multiple parts according to the dividing lines of the multiple sub-basins, and applied to the hydrological models of the corresponding sub-basins respectively.

[0016] Preferably, the method for determining the preset time step is: adjusting the time step according to the characteristics of the watershed, when the watershed area is greater than the first area threshold or the terrain complexity is higher than the first terrain threshold, setting the basic time step to be less than or equal to 0.5h; when the watershed area is less than the second area threshold and the terrain complexity is lower than the second terrain threshold, setting the basic time step to 1~2h, and the remaining basic time steps are all set to 0.5~1h; adjusting the basic time step according to the moving speed of the rainfall center.

[0017] Preferably, it also includes generating flood warning information based on the reservoir flood peak flow and time prediction results to support the scheduling decision of the hydropower station reservoir.

[0018] In a second aspect, the present invention provides a reservoir peak flow and time prediction system taking into account the movement of rainfall centers, comprising: Data acquisition module: used to obtain the topographic data, historical meteorological data, and historical runoff data of the target basin; divide the target basin into multiple sub-basins based on the topographic data; Hydrological model module: used to construct hydrological models for multiple sub-basins respectively, and the parameters of the hydrological model of each sub-basin are calibrated according to the historical meteorological data and historical runoff data corresponding to each sub-basin; Rainfall center module: used to obtain the movement trajectory and rainfall intensity changes of the target basin rainfall center, real-time meteorological data of each sub-basin, and real-time runoff data of each sub-basin, and input them into the hydrological model of the corresponding sub-basin to obtain the flood flow process lines corresponding to rainfall at multiple preset time steps; Flood prediction module: used to superimpose multiple flood flow process lines with preset time steps to obtain reservoir peak flow and time prediction results.

[0019] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects: This method divides sub-basins using topographic data and calibrates their hydrological model parameters accordingly, fully accounting for the differences in hydrological characteristics across different regions within the basin. By monitoring the movement trajectory and intensity changes of rainfall centers in real time, dynamic rainfall data is accurately matched to corresponding sub-basins. This addresses the prediction bias caused by traditional methods based on static rainfall data, which fail to reflect the dynamic temporal and spatial changes of rainfall centers. By superimposing flood flow process lines across multiple time steps, the method accurately reflects the cumulative effects of temporal and spatial variations in rainfall on flood peak formation. This method improves the accuracy and reliability of flood forecasting, providing a scientific basis for flood scheduling and safety management at hydropower stations. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0020] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments. It should be understood that the following drawings only illustrate certain embodiments of the present invention and therefore should not be regarded as limiting the scope. For ordinary technicians in this field, other relevant drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative work.

[0021] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for predicting reservoir peak flow and time considering the movement of rainfall center according to the present invention; Figure 2 A flow chart established for the hydrological model of the present invention; Figure 3 A schematic diagram of rainfall in an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the rainfall center spanning two sub-basins according to the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0022] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more clear, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings of the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Generally, the components of the embodiments of the present invention described and shown in the drawings herein can be arranged and designed in various different configurations.

[0023] Therefore, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention provided in the accompanying drawings is not intended to limit the scope of the invention as claimed, but rather merely represents selected embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments derived by persons of ordinary skill in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without creative effort shall fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0024] It should be noted that similar reference numerals and letters denote similar items in the following drawings, and therefore, once an item is defined in one drawing, it does not need to be further defined or explained in subsequent drawings.

[0025] In the description of the embodiments of the present invention, it should be noted that if the terms "upper," "lower," "horizontal," "inner," etc. appear, the orientation or positional relationship indicated is based on the orientation or positional relationship shown in the accompanying drawings, or the orientation or positional relationship in which the inventive product is typically placed when in use. These terms are merely for the convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the device or component referred to must have a specific orientation, be constructed, or operate in a specific orientation. Therefore, they should not be construed as limitations on the present invention. In addition, the terms "first," "second," etc. are used only to distinguish descriptions and should not be construed as indicating or implying relative importance.

[0026] In addition, if the term "horizontal" appears, it does not mean that the component must be absolutely horizontal, but can be slightly tilted. For example, "horizontal" only means that its direction is more horizontal than "vertical", and does not mean that the structure must be completely horizontal, but can be slightly tilted.

[0027] In the description of the embodiments of the present invention, it should be noted that, unless otherwise expressly specified or limited, the terms "disposed," "installed," "connected," and "connected" should be understood in a broad sense. For example, they can refer to fixed connections, detachable connections, or integral connections; they can refer to mechanical connections or electrical connections; they can refer to direct connections or indirect connections through an intermediate medium; and they can refer to internal connections between two components. Those skilled in the art will understand the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention based on specific circumstances.

[0028] The present invention is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings: The first object of the present invention is to provide a reservoir peak flow and time prediction method taking into account the movement of rainfall center, such as Figures 1 and 2 As shown, the following steps are included: Obtain the topographic data, historical meteorological data (precipitation and evaporation), and historical runoff data of the target watershed; divide the target watershed into multiple sub-basins based on the topographic data; Constructing hydrological models for each of the plurality of sub-basins, wherein parameters of the hydrological models for each sub-basin are calibrated using historical meteorological data and historical runoff data corresponding to each sub-basin; Obtain the movement trajectory of the rainfall center and rainfall intensity changes in the target basin, real-time meteorological data of each sub-basin, and real-time runoff data of each sub-basin, and input them into the hydrological model of the corresponding sub-basin to obtain the flood flow process lines corresponding to rainfall at multiple preset time steps; Superimpose multiple flood flow process lines with preset time steps to obtain the reservoir peak flow and time prediction results; Generate flood warning information based on reservoir peak flow and time prediction results to support scheduling decisions of hydropower station reservoirs.

[0029] The present invention achieves accurate prediction of flood peak flow and time by dynamically tracking the movement trajectory of the rainfall center and combining it with refined sub-basin modeling. Specifically, the present invention divides sub-basins based on terrain data and calibrates their hydrological model parameters separately, fully considering the differences in hydrological characteristics of different areas in the basin; secondly, by real-time monitoring of the movement trajectory and intensity changes of the rainfall center, the dynamic rainfall data is accurately matched to the corresponding sub-basin, solving the problem that the traditional method is based on static rainfall data and cannot reflect the prediction deviation caused by the dynamic changes of the rainfall center in time and space; at the same time, the multi-time step flood process line superposition technology is used to accurately reflect the cumulative effect of rainfall temporal and spatial changes on flood peak formation. The present invention can also timely release early warning information based on the reservoir flood peak flow and time prediction results, and supports the release of early warning information through various methods such as text messages, emails, and broadcasts, ensuring that the information can be quickly conveyed to relevant departments and the public, buying valuable time for reservoir scheduling and flood control decisions.

[0030] The parameters of the hydrological model for each sub-basin are calibrated using the corresponding historical meteorological and runoff data for each sub-basin. The following method is used: The historical meteorological and runoff data are divided equally into training and test sets. The training set data for each sub-basin is input into the corresponding hydrological model for parameter calibration. The test set data for each sub-basin is input into the calibrated hydrological model to obtain a predicted flood flow hydrograph. The predicted flood flow hydrograph is compared with the actual flood flow hydrograph. If the error exceeds a preset range, the parameters are adjusted until the error is within the preset range. This invention utilizes a separate training and test set parameter calibration method, significantly improving the prediction accuracy and reliability of the hydrological model through iterative optimization. First, the parameters of each sub-basin model are calibrated using the training set data. The model's generalization ability is then verified using an independent test set, effectively avoiding overfitting. When the prediction error exceeds a preset threshold, the system automatically triggers a parameter adjustment mechanism, combining intelligent optimization algorithms and manual experience to perform multiple rounds of optimization until the simulation results meet the required accuracy.

[0031] The method for determining the rainfall center involves obtaining the spatial area of ​​the rainfall cloud cluster and the rainfall in that area, generating a watershed area rainfall distribution map using a spatial interpolation algorithm, identifying the point of maximum rainfall, and demarcating the rainfall center with this point as the core. The rainfall center is defined as the continuous spatial range where rainfall is ≥ a preset threshold. This method fuses multi-source observation data and uses a spatial interpolation algorithm to generate a high-resolution watershed area rainfall distribution map. Based on mathematical extreme value theory, it accurately identifies the maximum rainfall point and intelligently demarcates the spatial boundaries of the rainfall center using a preset threshold (e.g., ≥70% of the maximum rainfall).

[0032] The method for determining the movement trajectory of the rainfall center involves reading the location range and rainfall amount of the rainfall center every hour and using linear interpolation to determine the movement trajectory of the rainfall center. By regularly reading the location range and rainfall amount data of the rainfall center every hour and using linear interpolation to determine its movement trajectory, the dynamic spatial changes of the rainfall center can be accurately captured with high temporal resolution. This helps to more carefully characterize the spatial evolution characteristics of the rainfall process, providing timely and refined dynamic information support for weather forecasts, flood warnings, and water resource allocation.

[0033] When inputting the movement trajectory and rainfall intensity changes of the target basin's rainfall center into the hydrological model of the corresponding sub-basin, if the rainfall center spans multiple sub-basins, the rainfall center is divided into multiple parts according to the dividing lines of the multiple sub-basins, and each part is applied to the hydrological model of the corresponding sub-basin. When the rainfall center spans multiple sub-basins, the present invention divides it according to the dividing lines and inputs it into the corresponding sub-basin hydrological model separately. This can accurately adapt to the complexity of rainfall spatial distribution, effectively avoid simulation deviations caused by the overall input of rainfall data, ensure that the rainfall information received by each sub-basin model is highly consistent with the actual rainfall distribution, and thus improve the accuracy of the overall basin hydrological model simulation.

[0034] The method for determining the preset time step is as follows: adjusting the time step according to the characteristics of the watershed; when the watershed area is greater than a first area threshold or the terrain complexity is higher than the first terrain threshold, setting the basic time step to be less than or equal to 0.5 hours; when the watershed area is less than a second area threshold and the terrain complexity is lower than the second terrain threshold, setting the basic time step to 1-2 hours; and all other basic time steps are set to 0.5-1 hours; adjusting the basic time step according to the movement speed of the rainfall center. By flexibly adjusting the time step of the hydrological model based on watershed characteristics (such as watershed complexity, area size, geological conditions) and the movement speed of the rainfall center, the present invention can accurately match the hydrological response characteristics of different watersheds. In complex or large watersheds, a shorter step is used to capture rapidly changing hydrological processes, while in simple watersheds, a longer step is used to balance efficiency and accuracy. This ensures that the dynamic changes caused by the movement of the rainfall center are accurately simulated, thereby significantly improving the spatiotemporal resolution and accuracy of the flow process simulation.

[0035] Example 1. Hydrological model establishment: Collect relevant data such as the basin's hydrological topography, historical rainfall, historical evaporation, and historical runoff. Divide the basin into more detailed sub-basins based on the hydrological topography. Then, calibrate the parameters of each sub-basin based on the above data and establish a hydrological model for each sub-basin. This model is used to output flood results based on the input rainfall process. The specific implementation steps are as follows: 1) Data Integration and Refined Watershed Processing: Comprehensively collect elevation maps of the target watershed and then divide it into sub-watersheds based on these elevation maps. Focus on collecting rainfall, evaporation, and runoff data over the past 10 years. For very large and complex areas, if more complex models are to be applied, further information on topography, soil type, vegetation cover, meteorological data (such as precipitation, evaporation, and temperature), and historical hydrological data will be required.

[0036] 2) Input rainfall, evaporation, and runoff data into the model to calibrate and verify parameters. For example, if 10 years of data are available, use data from years 1-9 for parameter calibration and year 10 for parameter verification. If the verification accuracy is high, the model is complete and can be used for the next step of verification. If the verification accuracy is low, manually adjust the parameters based on experience or use an intelligent optimization algorithm for intelligent adjustment and retest until the difference between the predicted flow hydrograph and the actual flow hydrograph is small and the required accuracy is met.

[0037] For hydropower stations in the southwest region, flood prediction models can generally be selected from the Xinanjiang, API and water tank models, as shown in Table 1. Table 1 Schematic diagram of flood prediction model

[0038] 2. Real-time multi-source data collection: Integrating water and rainfall data, mainly collecting real-time rainfall and evaporation in the basin where a hydropower station is located, and accessing hydropower station data (a hydropower station is essentially equivalent to a hydrological station, obtaining real-time runoff data. At the same time, reservoir water level, inflow and outflow can also be accessed as auxiliary reference data). The above data is integrated for the next step of monitoring and prediction.

[0039] 3. Rainfall center identification: Through meteorological observation data, such as radar, satellite and ground rain gauges. Radar monitors the location of rain clusters and determines the heavy rainfall area; ground rain gauges and meteorological stations provide specific precipitation. Combining these data, through certain regular interpolation, a rainfall map can be formed. Figure 3 As shown, areas with significantly higher rainfall than surrounding areas can accurately locate the rainfall center, i.e., the area with the heaviest precipitation or highest rainfall intensity. The rainfall center is defined as the area within a specific rainfall threshold (e.g., 70% of the maximum rainfall). The location and rainfall amount of the rainfall center are read every hour, and the trajectory of the rainfall is determined using linear interpolation.

[0040] 4. Flood prediction: The multi-source data collected in real time are input into the hydrological model of each sub-basin. At the same time, the movement trajectory and intensity change of the rainfall center are used as dynamic input and applied to the corresponding sub-basin, such as Figure 4As shown in the figure, if a rainfall center spans two sub-basins, the rainfall center is divided into two blocks along the sub-basin boundary and applied to each sub-basin. Using the established hydrological model, the flow process curve corresponding to each rainfall time step is calculated. Multiple flood flow process curves at preset time steps are superimposed to ultimately output a reservoir peak flow forecast. In practice, the time step can be adjusted based on the characteristics of the basin: for complex or large basins, the step size should be less than half an hour; for medium-sized basins, the step size should be less than one hour; and for smaller basins with favorable geological conditions, the step size should be one to two hours. Furthermore, the model time step should be adjusted based on the movement speed of the rainfall center to ensure simulation accuracy.

[0041] In addition, the hydrological model parameters are repeatedly optimized during the application process (for example, rolling calibration parameters, using the data of the last 10 years to calibrate the parameters during use, and updating the latest data and recalibrating at regular intervals to achieve self-upgrade and update of the model).

[0042] A second object of the present invention is to provide a reservoir peak flow and time prediction system that takes into account the movement of the rainfall center, comprising: Data acquisition module: obtains the topographic data and historical meteorological data of the target basin; divides the target basin into multiple sub-basins based on the topographic data; Hydrological model module: constructs hydrological models for multiple sub-basins respectively, and the parameters of the hydrological models of each sub-basin are calibrated according to the historical meteorological data corresponding to each sub-basin; Rainfall center module: obtains the movement trajectory of the rainfall center and rainfall intensity changes in the target basin, as well as the real-time meteorological data of each sub-basin, and inputs them into the hydrological model of the corresponding sub-basin to obtain the flood flow process lines corresponding to rainfall at multiple preset time steps; Flood prediction module: superimpose multiple flood flow process lines with preset time steps to obtain reservoir peak flow and time prediction results.

[0043] The system of the present invention realizes the refined acquisition of basin topography and meteorological data through the data acquisition module, and divides the sub-basin based on the terrain characteristics, providing a high-precision spatial basis for subsequent modeling; the hydrological model module adopts the strategy of partition modeling and independent parameter calibration to effectively improve the model's ability to characterize the local hydrological characteristics of the basin; the rainfall center module dynamically tracks the trajectory of the rainfall center and combines real-time meteorological data input to accurately capture the impact of the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall on the runoff generation and convergence process; the flood prediction module uses multi-time step process line superposition technology to completely restore the cumulative effect of dynamic changes in rainfall on flood peaks, and finally outputs high-precision flood peak prediction results.

[0044] In one embodiment of the present invention, a computer device is provided, comprising a processor and a memory, wherein the memory is configured to store a computer program, the computer program including program instructions, and the processor is configured to execute the program instructions stored in the computer storage medium. The processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), or may be another general-purpose processor, a digital signal processor (DSP), an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a field-programmable gate array (FPGA), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. It is the computing core and control core of the terminal and is suitable for implementing one or more instructions, specifically loading and executing one or more instructions in the computer storage medium to implement the corresponding method flow or corresponding function. The processor described in this embodiment of the present invention can be used to operate a reservoir flood peak flow and time prediction method that takes into account the movement of the rainfall center.

[0045] The present invention also provides a storage medium, specifically a computer-readable storage medium (Memory). The computer-readable storage medium is a memory device in a computer device, used to store programs and data. It is understood that the computer-readable storage medium herein may include both built-in storage media in the computer device and, of course, extended storage media supported by the computer device. The computer-readable storage medium provides storage space, which stores the terminal's operating system. Furthermore, the storage space also stores one or more instructions suitable for being loaded and executed by a processor. These instructions may be one or more computer programs (including program code). It should be noted that the computer-readable storage medium herein may be a high-speed RAM memory or a non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk storage device. The processor may load and execute the one or more instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium to implement the corresponding steps of the reservoir peak flow and time prediction method considering the movement of the rainfall center in the above-mentioned embodiment.

[0046] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Thus, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0047] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowcharts and / or block diagrams, as well as combinations of processes and / or blocks in the flowcharts and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowcharts and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0048] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to work in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0049] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operational steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing the instructions executed on the computer or other programmable device for implementing the process. Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A step that specifies a function in one or more boxes.

[0050] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the field should understand that the specific implementation methods of the present invention can still be modified or replaced by equivalents. Any modification or equivalent replacement that does not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered by the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting reservoir peak flow and time considering the movement of rainfall center, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Obtain the topographic data, historical meteorological data, and historical runoff data of the target watershed; divide the target watershed into multiple sub-watersheds based on the topographic data; Constructing hydrological models for each of the plurality of sub-basins, wherein parameters of the hydrological models for each sub-basin are calibrated using historical meteorological data and historical runoff data corresponding to each sub-basin; Obtain the movement trajectory of the rainfall center and rainfall intensity changes in the target basin, real-time meteorological data of each sub-basin, and real-time runoff data of each sub-basin, and input them into the hydrological model of the corresponding sub-basin to obtain the flood flow process lines corresponding to rainfall at multiple preset time steps; By superimposing multiple flood flow process lines with preset time steps, the reservoir peak flow and time prediction results are obtained.

2. A reservoir peak flow and time prediction method considering the movement of rainfall center according to claim 1, characterized in that: The meteorological data includes rainfall and evaporation.

3. The method for predicting reservoir peak flow and time considering the movement of rainfall center according to claim 1, characterized in that: The specific method for calibrating the parameters of the hydrological model of each sub-basin using the historical meteorological data and historical runoff data corresponding to each sub-basin is as follows: dividing the historical meteorological data and historical runoff data into a training set and a test set, inputting the training set data of each sub-basin into the corresponding hydrological model for parameter calibration; inputting the test set data of each sub-basin into the hydrological model after parameter calibration to obtain a predicted flood flow process line; comparing the predicted flood flow process line with the actual flood flow process line, and if the error exceeds a preset range, adjusting the parameters until the error is within the preset range.

4. The method for predicting reservoir peak flow and time considering the movement of rainfall center according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method for determining the rainfall center is as follows: obtaining the spatial area of ​​the rainfall cloud and the rainfall in the area, using a spatial interpolation algorithm to generate a watershed surface rainfall distribution map, and determining the rainfall center based on the watershed surface rainfall distribution map.

5. A reservoir peak flow and time prediction method considering the movement of rainfall center according to claim 4, characterized in that: The specific method for determining the rainfall center based on the basin surface rainfall distribution map is: determine the rainfall maximum point, and delineate the rainfall center with this point as the core. The rainfall center is defined as a continuous spatial range where the rainfall is ≥ a preset threshold.

6. A reservoir peak flow and time prediction method considering the movement of rainfall center according to claim 5, characterized in that: The method for determining the movement trajectory of the rainfall center is as follows: the position range and rainfall amount of the rainfall center are read once every hour, and the movement trajectory of the rainfall center is determined by using a linear interpolation method.

7. The method for predicting reservoir peak flow and time considering the movement of rainfall center according to claim 1, characterized in that: When the movement trajectory of the rainfall center and the change of rainfall intensity in the target basin are input into the hydrological model of the corresponding sub-basin, if the rainfall center spans multiple sub-basins, the rainfall center will be divided into multiple parts according to the dividing lines of the multiple sub-basins and applied to the hydrological models of the corresponding sub-basins respectively.

8. The method for predicting reservoir peak flow and time considering the movement of rainfall center according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method for determining the preset time step is as follows: adjusting the time step according to the characteristics of the watershed; when the watershed area is greater than the first area threshold or the terrain complexity is higher than the first terrain threshold, setting the basic time step to be less than or equal to 0.5h; when the watershed area is less than the second area threshold and the terrain complexity is lower than the second terrain threshold, setting the basic time step to 1~2h, and the remaining basic time steps are all set to 0.5~1h; adjusting the basic time step according to the moving speed of the rainfall center.

9. The method for predicting reservoir peak flow and time considering the movement of rainfall center according to claim 1, characterized in that: It also includes generating flood warning information based on reservoir peak flow and time prediction results to support the scheduling decisions of hydropower station reservoirs.

10. A reservoir peak flow and time prediction system considering the movement of rainfall center, characterized by: include: Data acquisition module: used to obtain terrain data, historical meteorological data, and historical runoff data of the target basin; Divide the target watershed into multiple sub-watersheds based on terrain data; Hydrological model module: used to construct hydrological models for multiple sub-basins respectively, and the parameters of the hydrological model of each sub-basin are calibrated according to the historical meteorological data and historical runoff data corresponding to each sub-basin; Rainfall center module: used to obtain the movement trajectory and rainfall intensity changes of the target basin rainfall center, real-time meteorological data of each sub-basin, and real-time runoff data of each sub-basin, and input them into the hydrological model of the corresponding sub-basin to obtain the flood flow process lines corresponding to rainfall at multiple preset time steps; Flood prediction module: used to superimpose multiple flood flow process lines with preset time steps to obtain reservoir peak flow and time prediction results.

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