Evaluation method and system for probability of collision of out-of-control ship on offshore platform, processing equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention relates to a method and system for evaluating the probability that an offshore platform is collided by an out-of-control ship, processing equipment and a storage medium. The method comprises the following steps: identifying an air route in a research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated; determining the ship traffic flow data of each identified air route, and counting the ship flow density of the air route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated; calculating the ship flow density of each section with the specified length of the air route section in the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated; determining the probability that the ship is out of control and drifts to collide with the to-be-evaluated offshore platform in each air route within the research range of the to-be-evaluated offshore platform; determining the collision frequency of the out-of-control ship on the to-be-evaluated offshore platform according to the ship flow density of each section with the specified length of the air route section in the research range of the to-be-evaluated offshore platform and the probability that the out-of-control ship drifts and collides with the to-be-evaluated offshore platform in each air route in the research range of the to-be-evaluated offshore platform; the method can be widely applied to the field of safety production of offshore oil.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of offshore oil production safety, and in particular to a method, system, processing equipment and storage medium for evaluating the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an out-of-control ship. Background Art

[0002] With the continued advancement of offshore oil exploration and development, conflicts between sea lanes and offshore oil development platforms are becoming increasingly prominent. Newly discovered and established offshore oil and gas fields are increasingly located closer to sea lanes, increasing the likelihood of ship collisions with offshore oil and gas platforms. Offshore shipping vessels are often massive, and a collision with an offshore platform can have serious consequences. Effectively assessing and mitigating the risk of ship collisions with offshore oil and gas platforms has become a crucial issue in ensuring safe offshore oil production.

[0003] The UK and Norway were among the first countries to study the risk of ship collisions for offshore oil and gas platforms. Historical accident statistics indicate that the probability of collisions between offshore platforms located on the UK continental shelf and passing merchant ships is 1.2E-3 per year. Norwegian technical research institutions and risk assessment companies have also proposed relevant calculation models and developed software products to support this work. China has also proposed corresponding assessment methods, but these currently focus solely on identifying and qualitatively evaluating ship collision risks, failing to provide a quantitative basis for offshore platform site safety selection and the implementation of collision prevention and control measures.

[0004] Therefore, based on the increasingly prominent conflicts in sea use brought about by the continuous expansion of the scale of maritime shipping and the development of the offshore oil industry, it is urgent to carry out a quantitative assessment of the risk of ship collision of offshore platforms, in order to provide a quantitative basis for the site selection safety of offshore platforms and the adoption of anti-collision prevention and control measures. Summary of the Invention

[0005] In response to the above problems, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method, system, processing equipment and storage medium for evaluating the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled ship, which can provide a quantitative basis for the site selection safety of the offshore platform and the adoption of anti-collision prevention control measures.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions: In a first aspect, a method for assessing the probability of collision between an offshore platform and an uncontrolled vessel is provided, comprising: Identify routes within the study area of ​​the offshore platform to be assessed; Determine the ship traffic flow data for each identified route and calculate the ship traffic density of the routes within the study scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated; Based on the statistical results of the ship traffic density of the route, calculate the ship traffic density of each section of the route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated; Determine the probability of a vessel drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform within the study area of ​​the offshore platform to be assessed; The frequency of collisions between the offshore platform to be assessed and the uncontrolled ships is determined based on the ship traffic density of each section of the specified length of the route section within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed, and the probability of uncontrolled ships drifting and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed within each route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed.

[0007] Furthermore, the identification of routes within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed includes: Defining the research scope with the offshore platform to be assessed as the center; Identify routes within the study area of ​​the offshore platform to be assessed.

[0008] Furthermore, the identification includes planned route identification and customary route identification.

[0009] Furthermore, the ship traffic flow data is the coordinate position of the center line of the route relative to the offshore platform to be evaluated.

[0010] Furthermore, the determination of the ship traffic flow data for each identified route and the statistical analysis of the ship traffic density of the routes within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated include: The ship traffic flow data of each identified route is obtained using the ship automatic identification system, and the ship flow density of each route and the ship traffic flow data of each section of the specified length of the route section are statistically calculated.

[0011] Furthermore, the determination of the probability of a ship in each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed includes: Select a route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated, and divide the route into several rectangles of specified length and width according to the cross section and heading direction; Based on the size of each segmented rectangle and the position of each segmented rectangle relative to the offshore platform to be assessed, the angle of the direction in which the uncontrolled drifting ship will collide with the offshore platform to be assessed is determined; Based on the wind speed and wind direction distribution in the sea area where the offshore platform to be assessed is located, as well as the positions of different segmented rectangles relative to the offshore platform to be assessed, the probability of a ship in each segmented rectangle losing control and drifting under the action of wind to collide with the offshore platform to be assessed is determined; Based on the probability of a ship losing control and drifting under wind to collide with the offshore platform to be assessed within different segmented rectangles, the probability of a ship losing control and drifting to collide with the offshore platform to be assessed within the route is cumulatively calculated; A route within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed is reselected for calculation until the probability of a ship in each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed is obtained.

[0012] Furthermore, the method of determining the collision frequency of the offshore platform to be assessed by an uncontrolled ship based on the ship traffic density of each section of a specified length of the route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed and the probability of an uncontrolled ship drifting and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed within each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed comprises: Determine the frequency of ship engine failure and the probability of anchor failure based on historical statistical data; According to the length of the dividing rectangle of the route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated and the navigation speed of the ship, the time it takes for the ship to pass through the dividing rectangle is calculated, and then the frequency of ship loss of control within each dividing rectangle of the route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is calculated; The collision frequency of the offshore platform to be assessed by uncontrolled ships is determined based on the ship traffic density of each section of the specified length of the route section within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed, the time it takes for a ship to pass through the dividing rectangle, the probability of a ship in each route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed, and the frequency of ships losing control within each route dividing rectangle within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed.

[0013] In a second aspect, a system for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled vessel is provided, comprising: Identification module, used to identify routes within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed; The statistical module is used to determine the ship traffic flow data of each identified route and to calculate the ship traffic density of the route within the study range of the offshore platform to be evaluated; The ship traffic density calculation module is used to calculate the ship traffic density of each section of the route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated based on the statistical results of the route's ship traffic density; The module for calculating the probability of a ship drifting out of control is used to determine the probability of a ship drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed within each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed; The collision frequency calculation module is used to determine the collision frequency of the offshore platform to be assessed by an uncontrolled ship based on the ship traffic density of each section of the specified length of the route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed, and the probability of an uncontrolled ship drifting and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed within each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed.

[0014] According to a third aspect, a processing device is provided, comprising computer program instructions, wherein when the computer program instructions are executed by the processing device, the computer program instructions are used to implement the steps corresponding to the above-mentioned method for assessing the probability of collision between an offshore platform and an uncontrolled ship.

[0015] In a fourth aspect, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which computer program instructions are stored, wherein the computer program instructions, when executed by a processor, are used to implement the steps corresponding to the above-mentioned method for assessing the probability of collision between an offshore platform and an uncontrolled ship.

[0016] The present invention has the following advantages due to the adoption of the above technical solution: 1. The present invention can quickly assess the risk of a ship colliding with an offshore platform, providing a basis for the site selection of the offshore platform.

[0017] 2. The present invention can evaluate the consequences of ship collisions and provide a basis for the design of anti-collision schemes for offshore platforms.

[0018] In summary, the present invention can be widely used in the field of offshore oil production safety. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0019] Various other advantages and benefits will become apparent to those skilled in the art upon reading the detailed description of the preferred embodiment below. The accompanying drawings are for illustration purposes only and are not to be considered as limiting the present invention. Throughout the drawings, the same reference numerals are used to denote the same components. In the drawings: Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method provided by one embodiment of the present invention; Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram for identifying planned routes and customary routes near a platform provided by an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of route segmentation rectangle segmentation and wind direction angle determination provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0020] Exemplary embodiments of the present invention will be described in more detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Although exemplary embodiments of the present invention are shown in the accompanying drawings, it should be understood that the present invention can be implemented in various forms and should not be limited by the embodiments set forth herein. Rather, these embodiments are provided to enable a more thorough understanding of the present invention and to fully convey the scope of the present invention to those skilled in the art.

[0021] It should be understood that the terms used herein are for the purpose of describing specific example embodiments only and are not intended to be limiting. Unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, the singular forms "one", "an" and "said" as used herein may also be meant to include plural forms. The terms "comprise", "include", "contain" and "have" are inclusive and therefore specify the presence of stated features, steps, operations, elements and / or parts, but do not exclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, steps, operations, elements, parts, and / or combinations thereof. The method steps, processes, and operations described herein are not to be construed as necessarily requiring them to be performed in the specific order described or illustrated, unless the order of execution is clearly indicated. It should also be understood that additional or alternative steps may be used.

[0022] Although the terms first, second, third, etc. can be used in the text to describe multiple elements, components, regions, layers and / or sections, these elements, components, regions, layers and / or sections should not be limited by these terms. These terms can only be used to distinguish an element, component, region, layer or section from another region, layer or section. Unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, terms such as "first", "second" and other numerical terms do not imply order or sequence when used in the text. Therefore, the first element, component, region, layer or section discussed below can be referred to as the second element, component, region, layer or section without departing from the teaching of the example embodiments.

[0023] At present, the method for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled ship only stays at the identification and qualitative evaluation of the risk of ship collision, and cannot provide a quantitative basis for the safety of offshore platform site selection and the adoption of anti-collision prevention and control measures. The method for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled ship provided by an embodiment of the present invention includes: identifying the routes within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed; determining the ship traffic flow data of each identified route, and statistically analyzing the ship flow density of the routes within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed; calculating the ship flow density of each section of the route section within a specified length within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed based on the statistical results of the ship flow density of the routes; determining the probability of a ship in each route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed; determining the frequency of the offshore platform to be assessed being collided with an uncontrolled ship based on the ship flow density of each section of the route section within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed and the probability of a ship in each route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed. The present invention sequentially identifies routes near offshore platforms, counts route ship flow density, estimates ship flow density distribution within route sections, estimates the probability of uncontrolled drifting ships colliding with platforms within a single route, and estimates the cumulative probability of uncontrolled drifting ships colliding with platforms within multiple routes. Finally, it calculates the frequency of uncontrolled ship collisions against offshore platforms in complex navigation environments. The present invention can be used to calculate the probability of an offshore platform located near an offshore route being collided with an uncontrolled ship, so as to quantitatively assess the risk of an offshore platform being collided with a ship. During the planning and design phase of offshore oilfield development, the present invention can effectively assess the risk of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled ship in a complex navigation environment, providing a basis for the safe site selection of offshore platforms.

[0024] Example 1 like Figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a method for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled vessel, comprising the following steps: 1) Identify the routes within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed, specifically: 1.1) Define the research scope centered on the offshore platform to be assessed.

[0025] It should be noted that the research scope can be determined according to the circumstances, and generally the research scope is 10 nautical miles centered on the offshore platform.

[0026] 1.2) Identify routes within the study area of ​​the offshore platform to be assessed.

[0027] Specifically, identification includes planned route identification and customary route identification.

[0028] More specifically, planned route identification is to identify the planned route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated from the route planning, and determine the coordinate position of the center line of the planned route relative to the offshore platform to be evaluated; customary route identification is to identify the customary route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated from the ship track map, and determine the coordinate position of the center line of the customary route relative to the offshore platform to be evaluated.

[0029] It should be noted that the centerline of the route refers to the line connecting the points with the maximum ship traffic density within the two selected route sections, and the route boundary is determined by a certain ship traffic density value. According to the coordinate position of the route centerline relative to the offshore platform to be evaluated, the planned route and customary route identification map within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is drawn, such as Figure 2 shown.

[0030] 2) Determine the ship traffic flow data for each identified route and calculate the ship traffic density of the routes within the study scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated.

[0031] Specifically, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is used to obtain the ship traffic flow data of each route identified in step 1), and the ship flow density of each route and the ship traffic flow data of each section of a specified length of the route section (for example, 1 nautical mile) are statistically calculated.

[0032] 3) Based on the statistical results of the ship traffic density of the route, calculate the ship traffic density of each section of the route with a specified length within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated.

[0033] Specifically, the ship traffic density of each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is calculated based on the ship traffic density of each route section and the ship traffic flow data of each section of the route section with a specified length.

[0034] More specifically, if the ship traffic flow data for each section of the specified length of the route section cannot be obtained, it is assumed that the ship flow density within the route section follows a standard normal distribution from the route centerline to the route boundary, and the ship flow density at the centerline is the largest.

[0035] 4) Determine the probability of a vessel drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform within each route within the study scope of the offshore platform to be assessed, specifically: 4.1) Select a route within the study area of ​​the offshore platform to be assessed and divide it into a number of rectangles of specified length and width according to cross-section and heading direction.

[0036] 4.2) Based on the size of each segmented rectangle and the position of each segmented rectangle relative to the offshore platform to be assessed, determine the direction angle at which the uncontrolled drifting vessel would collide with the offshore platform to be assessed.

[0037] Specifically, each segmented rectangle is taken as the research object, and the boundary points of each segmented rectangle are connected with the boundary points of the offshore platform to be assessed to determine the direction angle of the ship's uncontrolled drifting and collision with the offshore platform to be assessed, such as Figure 3 As shown, it is a schematic diagram of single route segmentation rectangle segmentation and wind direction angle determination.

[0038] 4.3) Based on the wind speed and direction distribution (wind frequency table or wind rose diagram) in the sea area where the offshore platform is located, and the position of the different segmented rectangles relative to the offshore platform, determine the probability that a ship within each segmented rectangle will lose control and drift under the influence of wind and collide with the offshore platform.

[0039] 4.4) Based on the probability of a ship losing control and drifting under wind and colliding with the offshore platform under assessment within each segmented rectangle, the probability of a ship losing control and drifting within the route and colliding with the offshore platform under assessment is calculated cumulatively. This calculation also takes into account the ratio of the size of the offshore platform under assessment to the size of the segmented rectangle projected in the direction of drift.

[0040] 4.5) Reselect a route within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed and proceed to step 4.1) until the probability of a ship drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed is obtained for each route within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed.

[0041] 5) Based on the ship traffic density of each section of the specified length of the route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed, and the probability of an uncontrolled ship drifting and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed within each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed, the frequency of collision of the offshore platform to be assessed by an uncontrolled ship is determined, specifically: 5.1) Determine the frequency of ship engine failures and the probability of anchor failure based on historical statistical data.

[0042] 5.2) Based on the length of the dividing rectangle of the route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated and the speed of the ship, the time it takes for the ship to pass through the dividing rectangle is calculated, and then the event tree method is used to calculate the time it takes for the ship to pass through the dividing rectangle based on the frequency of ship engine failure. and anchor failure probability Calculate the frequency of ship loss of control within each route segmentation rectangle of the offshore platform to be evaluated : (1) 5.3) Based on the ship traffic density of each section of the specified length of the route section within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed, the time it takes for a ship to pass through the dividing rectangle, the probability of an uncontrolled ship drifting and colliding with the offshore platform within each route within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed, and the frequency of uncontrolled ships within each route dividing rectangle within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed, the frequency of collisions with uncontrolled ships on the offshore platform to be assessed is determined as follows: 5.3.1) Calculate the number of ships within the dividing rectangle based on the ship traffic density of each section of the specified length of the route section within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed and the time it takes for ships to pass through the dividing rectangle.

[0043] 5.3.2) Based on the number of ships within the dividing rectangle, the probability of a ship drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform within each route of the offshore platform's study area, and the frequency of ships losing control within each route dividing rectangle of the offshore platform's study area, calculate the frequency of the offshore platform being collided with by an uncontrolled ship: (2) Example 2 This embodiment provides a system for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled vessel, comprising: The identification module is used to identify the routes within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated.

[0044] The statistical module is used to determine the ship traffic flow data of each identified route and to calculate the ship traffic density of the route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated.

[0045] The ship traffic density calculation module is used to calculate the ship traffic density of each section of the route with a specified length within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated based on the statistical results of the route's ship traffic density.

[0046] The ship uncontrolled drift probability calculation module is used to determine the probability of a ship uncontrolled drifting and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed within each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed.

[0047] The collision frequency calculation module is used to determine the collision frequency of the offshore platform to be assessed by an uncontrolled ship based on the ship traffic density of each section of the specified length of the route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed, and the probability of an uncontrolled ship drifting and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed within each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed.

[0048] The system provided in this embodiment is used to execute the above-mentioned method embodiments. Please refer to the above-mentioned embodiments for specific processes and detailed contents, which will not be repeated here.

[0049] Example 3 This embodiment provides a processing device corresponding to the method for evaluating the probability of collision between an offshore platform and an uncontrolled ship provided in Example 1. The processing device can be applicable to a client processing device, such as a mobile phone, laptop computer, tablet computer, desktop computer, etc., to execute the method of Example 1.

[0050] The processing device includes a processor, a memory, a communication interface, and a bus. The processor, memory, and communication interface are connected via the bus to facilitate communication between them. The memory stores a computer program executable on the processing device. When the processing device executes the computer program, it executes the method for assessing the probability of collision between an offshore platform and an uncontrolled vessel, as provided in Example 1.

[0051] In some implementations, the memory may be a high-speed random access memory (RAM), and may also include a non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk storage.

[0052] In other implementations, the processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), a digital signal processor (DSP), or other general-purpose processors, which are not limited herein.

[0053] In addition, the logical instructions in the aforementioned memory can be implemented in the form of a software functional unit and, when sold or used as an independent product, can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, or the portion that contributes to the prior art, or the portion of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. The computer software product is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions for enabling a computer device (which can be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes various media that can store program code, such as a USB flash drive, a mobile hard disk, a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a magnetic disk, or an optical disk.

[0054] Those skilled in the art will understand that the structure of the above-mentioned computing device is only a partial structure related to the solution of the present invention and does not constitute a limitation on the computing device to which the solution of the present invention is applied. The specific computing device may include more or fewer components, or combine certain components, or have a different component arrangement.

[0055] Example 4 This embodiment provides a computer program product corresponding to the method for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled vessel provided in Example 1. The computer program product may include a computer-readable storage medium carrying computer-readable program instructions for executing the method for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled vessel described in Example 1.

[0056] Computer readable storage media can be tangible devices that hold and store instructions used by instruction execution devices. Computer readable storage media can be, for example, but not limited to, electronic storage devices, magnetic storage devices, optical storage devices, electromagnetic storage devices, semiconductor storage devices, or any combination thereof.

[0057] The above embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium, whose implementation principle and technical effects are similar to those of the above method embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0058] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowcharts and / or block diagrams, as well as combinations of processes and / or blocks in the flowcharts and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowcharts and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0059] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to work in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0060] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operational steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing the instructions executed on the computer or other programmable device for implementing the process. Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A step that specifies a function in one or more boxes.

[0061] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the present invention, wherein the structure, connection mode and manufacturing process of each component can be changed. Any equivalent transformations and improvements based on the technical solution of the present invention should not be excluded from the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled vessel, characterized in that: include: Identify routes within the study area of ​​the offshore platform to be assessed; Determine the ship traffic flow data for each identified route and calculate the ship traffic density of the routes within the study scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated; Based on the statistical results of the ship traffic density of the route, calculate the ship traffic density of each section of the route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated; Determine the probability of a vessel drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform within the study area of ​​the offshore platform to be assessed; The frequency of collisions between the offshore platform to be assessed and the uncontrolled ships is determined based on the ship traffic density of each section of the specified length of the route section within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed, and the probability of uncontrolled ships drifting and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed within each route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed.

2. The method for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled vessel according to claim 1, wherein: The identification of routes within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed includes: Defining the research scope with the offshore platform to be assessed as the center; Identify routes within the study area of ​​the offshore platform to be assessed.

3. The method for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled vessel according to claim 1, wherein: The identification includes planned route identification and customary route identification.

4. The method for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled vessel according to claim 1, wherein: The ship traffic flow data is the coordinate position of the center line of the route relative to the offshore platform to be evaluated.

5. The method for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled vessel according to claim 1, wherein: The ship traffic flow data of each identified route is determined, and the ship traffic density of the route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated is statistically analyzed, including: The ship traffic flow data of each identified route is obtained using the ship automatic identification system, and the ship flow density of each route and the ship traffic flow data of each section of the specified length of the route section are statistically calculated.

6. The method for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled vessel according to claim 1, wherein: The probability of a ship drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed within each route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed includes: Select a route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated, and divide the route into several rectangles of specified length and width according to the cross section and heading direction; Based on the size of each segmented rectangle and the position of each segmented rectangle relative to the offshore platform to be assessed, the angle of the direction in which the uncontrolled drifting ship will collide with the offshore platform to be assessed is determined; Based on the wind speed and wind direction distribution in the sea area where the offshore platform to be assessed is located, as well as the positions of different segmented rectangles relative to the offshore platform to be assessed, the probability of a ship in each segmented rectangle losing control and drifting under the action of wind to collide with the offshore platform to be assessed is determined; Based on the probability of a ship losing control and drifting under wind to collide with the offshore platform to be assessed within different segmented rectangles, the probability of a ship losing control and drifting to collide with the offshore platform to be assessed within the route is cumulatively calculated; A route within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed is reselected for calculation until the probability of a ship in each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed is obtained.

7. The method for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled vessel according to claim 1, wherein: The frequency of collision of the offshore platform to be assessed by an uncontrolled ship is determined based on the ship traffic density of each section of a specified length of the route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed, and the probability of an uncontrolled ship drifting and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed within each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed, including: Determine the frequency of ship engine failure and the probability of anchor failure based on historical statistical data; According to the length of the dividing rectangle of the route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated and the navigation speed of the ship, the time it takes for the ship to pass through the dividing rectangle is calculated, and then the frequency of ship loss of control within each dividing rectangle of the route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is calculated; The collision frequency of the offshore platform to be assessed by uncontrolled ships is determined based on the ship traffic density of each section of the specified length of the route section within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed, the time it takes for a ship to pass through the dividing rectangle, the probability of a ship in each route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed, and the frequency of ships losing control within each route dividing rectangle within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed.

8. A system for assessing the probability of an offshore platform being collided with an uncontrolled vessel, characterized in that: include: Identification module, used to identify routes within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed; The statistical module is used to determine the ship traffic flow data of each identified route and to calculate the ship traffic density of the route within the study range of the offshore platform to be evaluated; The ship traffic density calculation module is used to calculate the ship traffic density of each section of the route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated based on the statistical results of the route's ship traffic density; The module for calculating the probability of a ship drifting out of control is used to determine the probability of a ship drifting out of control and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed within each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed; The collision frequency calculation module is used to determine the collision frequency of the offshore platform to be assessed by an uncontrolled ship based on the ship traffic density of each section of the specified length of the route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed, and the probability of an uncontrolled ship drifting and colliding with the offshore platform to be assessed within each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed.

9. A processing device, characterized in that The method comprises computer program instructions, wherein when the computer program instructions are executed by a processing device, they are used to implement the steps corresponding to the method for assessing the probability of collision of an offshore platform with an uncontrolled ship according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that The computer-readable storage medium stores computer program instructions, wherein the computer program instructions, when executed by a processor, are used to implement steps corresponding to the method for assessing the probability of collision of an offshore platform with an uncontrolled vessel according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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