Pipeline geological disaster early warning method considering emergency capacity

Abstract

The invention discloses a pipeline geological disaster early warning method considering emergency capacity, and relates to the technical field of pipeline geological disaster early warning. According to the method, the emergency capacity along the pipeline is analyzed based on the collected emergency resource data along the pipeline, the geological disaster susceptibility along the pipeline is analyzed based on the collected geological environment data along the pipeline, and the emergency capacity evaluation result along the pipeline and the geological disaster susceptibility evaluation result along the pipeline are superposed to obtain the geological disaster susceptibility evaluation result along the pipeline. And forming an early-warning region along the pipeline, constructing a region early-warning criterion in combination with historical disaster occurrence conditions along the pipeline, and issuing pipeline geological disaster early-warning information according to the detected rainfall and the predicted rainfall. According to the method, pipeline emergency management work and pipeline geological disaster early warning are organically combined, data support is provided for reasonable deployment of pipeline emergency resources by quantitatively evaluating the emergency capacity of each pipe section along the pipeline, resource waste and resource shortage caused by uneven distribution of the emergency resources are avoided, and the pipeline geological disaster early warning efficiency is improved. And a basis is provided for guiding pipeline emergency management work.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of pipeline geological disaster early warning, and in particular to a pipeline geological disaster early warning method taking emergency response capability into consideration. Background Art

[0002] As a vital component of transportation, pipeline projects are crucial for ensuring national energy security and a stable supply. With the rapid development of industry and the continued growth of energy demand, the scale and scope of pipeline construction are constantly expanding. The geological conditions along the pipeline routes are harsh, with frequent geological disasters such as collapses, landslides, and mudslides threatening the safe operation of the pipelines. Due to the long lengths of pipeline routes, management units typically adopt a segmented management approach, setting up stations by region. Given the varying lengths and risks faced by each station, the allocation of emergency resources varies across stations.

[0003] As a key component of geological disaster prevention and control, geological disaster early warning plays a vital role in pipeline protection. However, common geological disaster early warning methods typically only consider the conditions and triggering factors of geological disasters, without considering the impact of pipeline management. From a pipeline management perspective, different stations have different emergency resources allocated, and their ability to respond to pipeline geological disasters also varies, especially in terms of emergency response time. The essence of geological disaster early warning is to provide sufficient time for geological disaster prevention and control.

[0004] Therefore, in view of the differences in warning levels issued by stations with different emergency response capabilities, it is urgent to propose a pipeline geological disaster warning method that takes emergency response capabilities into consideration, so as to accurately consider pipeline emergency response capabilities in the warning work. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The present invention aims to solve the above problems and proposes a pipeline geological disaster early warning method that takes emergency response capabilities into consideration. It organically combines pipeline emergency response with early warning, and effectively considers the pipeline emergency response capabilities to construct regional early warning criteria, thereby achieving effective control of geological disasters near the pipeline.

[0006] The present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0007] A pipeline geological disaster early warning method considering emergency response capabilities includes the following steps:

[0008] Step 1: Obtain and standardize emergency resource data along the pipeline;

[0009] Step 2: Using the standardized pipeline emergency resource data, the emergency capacity along the pipeline is evaluated based on the information quantity method;

[0010] Step 3: Obtain and standardize geological environment data along the pipeline;

[0011] Step 4: Using the standardized geological environment data along the pipeline, the geological disaster susceptibility assessment along the pipeline is conducted based on the information quantity method;

[0012] Step 5: Based on the results of the emergency response capability assessment and the geological disaster susceptibility assessment along the pipeline, early warning zoning is performed along the pipeline;

[0013] Step 6: Based on the historical disaster occurrence along the pipeline, establish regional early warning criteria;

[0014] Step 7: Based on the regional early warning criteria, combine the daily actual rainfall data and forecast rainfall data to conduct pipeline geological disaster early warning.

[0015] Preferably, the emergency resource data along the pipeline includes pipeline emergency material distribution data, pipeline hospital distribution data, pipeline fire station distribution data, and pipeline highway distribution data;

[0016] The emergency material distribution data is used to obtain the emergency materials allocated by the management agency to each station;

[0017] The emergency supplies include shovels, geobags, forklifts and generators.

[0018] Preferably, in step 2, based on the information volume method, the management section of each station on the pipeline is used as the evaluation area, the minimum evaluation unit is determined according to the maximum scale adopted by the emergency resource data along the pipeline, the pipeline is gridded according to the minimum evaluation unit, and the emergency capacity information volume of the pipeline in each evaluation area is calculated according to each emergency capacity influencing factor of the pipeline in each evaluation area, so as to obtain the emergency capacity evaluation result along the pipeline.

[0019] Preferably, the calculation formula for the emergency capability information volume is:

[0020]

[0021] Where, I y is the amount of emergency capability information; i is the sequence number; x i is the influencing factor of emergency response capability; A is the emergency event; N i is the number of factors affecting the i-th emergency capacity in the assessment area; N is the number of factors affecting the i-th emergency capacity in the entire pipeline; S i is the length of the pipe section occupied by the i-th emergency capacity influencing factor; S is the total length of the pipeline.

[0022] Preferably, the geological environment data along the pipeline include geological disaster data, elevation data, slope data, stratum lithology data, river data and annual average rainfall data along the pipeline.

[0023] Preferably, in step 4, based on the information volume method, the management section of each station on the pipeline is used as the assessment area, and the minimum assessment unit is determined according to the maximum scale adopted by the geological environment data along the pipeline. The pipeline is gridded according to the minimum assessment unit, and the geological disaster information volume of the pipeline in each assessment area is calculated according to the local geological disaster influencing factors of the pipeline in each assessment area to obtain the geological disaster susceptibility assessment result along the pipeline.

[0024] Preferably, the calculation formula for the amount of geological disaster information is:

[0025]

[0026] Where, I d is the amount of geological disaster information; i is the sequence number; y i is the influencing factor of geological disaster i; H is the geological disaster event; M i is the number of the i-th geological hazard influencing factor in the assessment area; M is the number of the i-th geological hazard influencing factor in the entire pipeline; L i is the length of the pipe section occupied by the i-th geological disaster factor; S is the total length of the pipeline.

[0027] Preferably, in step 5, the emergency response capability assessment results along the pipeline and the geological disaster susceptibility assessment results along the pipeline are normalized;

[0028] Based on the results of the pipeline emergency response capability assessment, the emergency response capability information value of the pipeline in each assessment area is mapped to [-1, 0]. Based on the results of the geological disaster susceptibility assessment along the pipeline, the geological disaster information value of the pipeline in each assessment area is mapped to [0, 1]. Based on the normalized results of the pipeline emergency response capability assessment and the geological disaster susceptibility assessment along the pipeline, the comprehensive risk index I of the pipeline in each assessment area is calculated.

[0029] The comprehensive risk index I, I=I y +I d , where I y is the normalized emergency response capability assessment result along the pipeline, I d is the normalized geological disaster susceptibility assessment result along the pipeline;

[0030] After obtaining the comprehensive risk index of all pipelines in the assessment area, the natural breakpoint method is used to divide the comprehensive risk index into multiple levels of early warning to determine the early warning area along the pipeline.

[0031] Preferably, the step 6 includes the following sub-steps:

[0032] Step 6.1: Based on the pipeline geological disaster data in the pipeline geological environment data, the pipeline geological disaster data is matched with the collected actual rainfall data according to the disaster occurrence time; the coordinates of the historical disaster points along the pipeline are determined based on the historical disaster occurrence along the pipeline, and the actual rainfall on the disaster occurrence day and n-1 days before the disaster is calculated, where n is the number of effective rainfall days, determined based on expert experience, and the effective rainfall days are related to the geological environment conditions and disaster occurrence patterns of the warning area;

[0033] Step 6.2: After the statistics are completed, calculate the effective rainfall at the disaster site;

[0034] The effective rainfall at the disaster site is:

[0035]

[0036] Where R p is the effective rainfall, in mm; R i is the daily rainfall on the i-th day before the disaster occurs, in mm; k is the effective rainfall coefficient.

[0037] Step 6.3: Based on the actual rainfall on the day of the disaster and n-1 days before the disaster, draw a scatter plot of the relationship between geological disasters and effective rainfall in different periods, fit the critical rainfall for geological disasters in each warning area, and determine the warning criteria for each warning area.

[0038] Preferably, in step 7, the forecast rainfall data is used as the actual rainfall on the day the disaster occurs, and the daily actual rainfall data is used as the actual rainfall n-1 days before the disaster occurs. The daily effective rainfall is calculated, and it is determined whether it is necessary to issue an early warning information based on the regional early warning criteria.

[0039] The present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0040] (1) The present invention proposes a pipeline geological disaster early warning method that takes emergency response capabilities into consideration. By quantitatively analyzing the emergency resource data along the pipeline, the emergency response capabilities of each section along the pipeline are quantitatively evaluated, providing data support for the rational allocation of pipeline emergency resources.

[0041] (2) The present invention proposes a pipeline geological disaster early warning method that takes emergency response capabilities into consideration. This method organically combines pipeline emergency management work with pipeline geological disaster early warning, which is conducive to the rational deployment of pipeline emergency management work. By raising the early warning level in areas with weak emergency resources and lowering the early warning level in areas with abundant emergency resources, it can make up for the waste or lack of resources caused by the uneven distribution of emergency resources, and has high promotion value. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0042] Figure 1 The present invention is a flow chart of a pipeline geological disaster early warning method taking into account emergency response capabilities.

[0043] Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the pipeline assessment area in the embodiment.

[0044] Figure 3 It is the early warning criterion diagram in the embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0045] The present invention is described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments:

[0046] In this embodiment,

[0047] A pipeline geological disaster early warning method considering emergency response capabilities, such as Figure 1 As shown, the following steps are included:

[0048] Step 1: Obtain and standardize emergency resource data along the pipeline.

[0049] The emergency resource data along the pipeline includes pipeline emergency material distribution data, hospital distribution data along the pipeline, fire station distribution data along the pipeline, and highway distribution data along the pipeline, and is used to obtain the pipeline emergency material distribution situation, hospital distribution data along the pipeline, fire station distribution data along the pipeline, and highway distribution situation along the pipeline. Among them, the emergency material distribution data is used to obtain the emergency materials allocated by the management agency to each station.

[0050] The emergency supplies described in this embodiment can be adjusted according to regional characteristics, including but not limited to shovels, geobags, forklifts and generators.

[0051] Since the emergency resource data along the pipeline usually has multiple data formats and cannot be used directly, it is necessary to first standardize the emergency resource data along the pipeline and standardize the emergency resource data along each pipeline into vector data.

[0052] Step 2: Using the standardized emergency resource data along the pipeline, the emergency capacity along the pipeline is evaluated based on the information quantity method.

[0053] The management section of each station on the pipeline is used as the assessment area, and the maximum scale used by the emergency resource data along the pipeline is used as the minimum assessment unit. In this embodiment, the minimum assessment unit is 500m. The pipeline is evenly divided into 500m grids based on the minimum assessment unit. After division, the assessment area includes 5 sections: A, B, C, D, and E. Figure 2 shown.

[0054] According to the factors affecting the emergency capacity of the pipeline in each assessment area, the amount of emergency capacity information of the pipeline in each assessment area is calculated respectively, and the emergency capacity assessment results along the pipeline are obtained.

[0055] In this embodiment, the calculation formula for the emergency capability information volume is:

[0056]

[0057] Where, I y is the amount of emergency capability information; i is the sequence number; x i is the influencing factor of emergency response capability; A is the emergency event; N i is the number of factors affecting the i-th emergency capacity in the assessment area; N is the number of factors affecting the i-th emergency capacity in the entire pipeline; S i is the length of the pipe section occupied by the i-th emergency capacity influencing factor; S is the total length of the pipeline.

[0058] Step 3: Obtain and standardize the geological environment data along the pipeline.

[0059] The geological environment data along the pipeline includes geological disaster data, elevation data, slope data, stratum lithology data, river data and annual average rainfall data along the pipeline. The data type used for the geological environment data along the pipeline is selected according to the characteristics of geological disasters in the area where the pipeline is located.

[0060] Since the geological environment data along the pipeline usually have multiple data formats and cannot be used directly, it is necessary to first standardize the geological environment data along the pipeline and standardize the geological environment data along each pipeline into vector data.

[0061] Step 4: Using the standardized geological environment data along the pipeline, the geological disaster susceptibility assessment along the pipeline is conducted based on the information quantity method.

[0062] The management section of each station on the pipeline is used as the assessment area, and the maximum scale used for the geological environment data along the pipeline is used as the minimum assessment unit. In this embodiment, the minimum assessment unit is 500m. The pipeline is gridded according to the minimum assessment unit, and the assessment area includes 5 sections: A, B, C, D, and E. Then, based on the various geological hazard influencing factors of the pipeline in each assessment area, the amount of geological hazard information of the pipeline in each assessment area is calculated to obtain the geological hazard susceptibility assessment results along the pipeline.

[0063] In this embodiment, the calculation formula for the geological disaster information amount is:

[0064]

[0065] Where, I dis the amount of geological disaster information; i is the sequence number; y i is the influencing factor of geological disaster i; H is the geological disaster event; M i is the number of the i-th geological hazard influencing factor in the assessment area; M is the number of the i-th geological hazard influencing factor in the entire pipeline; L i is the length of the pipe section occupied by the i-th geological disaster factor; S is the total length of the pipeline.

[0066] Step 5: Determine the early warning zoning along the pipeline based on the emergency response capability assessment results and the geological disaster susceptibility assessment results along the pipeline.

[0067] After completing the emergency response capability assessment and the geological disaster susceptibility assessment along the pipeline, the pipeline early warning zoning is further established. By superimposing the information in the emergency response capability assessment results along the pipeline and the information in the geological disaster susceptibility assessment results along the pipeline, the pipeline geological disaster early warning area is determined.

[0068] First, the emergency capacity assessment results along the pipeline and the geological disaster susceptibility assessment results along the pipeline are normalized: according to the emergency capacity assessment results along the pipeline, the emergency capacity information value of the pipeline in each assessment area is mapped to [-1, 0]; according to the geological disaster susceptibility assessment results along the pipeline, the geological disaster information value of the pipeline in each assessment area is mapped to [0, 1].

[0069] Based on the normalized results of the pipeline emergency response capability assessment and the geological disaster susceptibility assessment along the pipeline, the comprehensive risk index I of the pipeline in each assessment area is calculated, where I = I y +I d , where I y is the normalized emergency response capability assessment result along the pipeline, I d is the normalized geological disaster susceptibility assessment result along the pipeline.

[0070] After obtaining the comprehensive risk index for all pipelines in the assessment area, the natural breakpoint method is used to perform a multi-level early warning classification of the comprehensive risk index to determine the early warning areas along the pipeline. In this example, the four-level early warning zoning is obtained through reclassification, and the early warning areas along the pipeline are determined as Zone 1, Zone 2, Zone 3, and Zone 4.

[0071] Step 6: Based on historical disaster occurrences along the pipeline, construct regional early warning criteria, which includes the following sub-steps:

[0072] Step 6.1: Based on the pipeline geological disaster data in the geological environment data along the pipeline, the pipeline geological disaster data is matched with the collected actual rainfall data according to the time of disaster occurrence. The coordinates of historical disaster points along the pipeline are determined based on the historical disaster occurrences along the pipeline, and the actual rainfall on the day of the disaster and n-1 days before the disaster is calculated. Where n is the number of effective rainfall days, determined based on expert experience and related to the geological environment conditions and disaster occurrence patterns of the warning area. In this embodiment, the value of n is 7, that is, the actual rainfall on the day of the disaster and 6 days before the disaster is calculated.

[0073] Step 6.2: After the statistics are completed, calculate the effective rainfall at the disaster site. The calculation formula for effective rainfall is:

[0074]

[0075] Where R p is the effective rainfall, in mm; R i is the daily rainfall on the i-th day before the disaster occurs, in mm; k is the effective rainfall coefficient, which is 0.84.

[0076] Step 6.3: Based on the actual rainfall on the disaster day and 1 day, 2 days, 3 days, 4 days, 5 days, and 6 days before the disaster, draw the following for each sub-area: Figure 3 The scatter plot shown is used to obtain the relationship between geological disasters and effective rainfall in different periods.

[0077] To further determine the critical rainfall for geological hazards, we fitted the upper and lower bounds of effective rainfall in the scatter plot. The upper bound was the γ line, and the lower bound was the α line. The average of the upper and lower bounds yielded the intermediate line, the β line. The specific fitting formulas for the upper γ line, the lower α line, and the β line are shown in Table 1. These fitting formulas serve as the early warning criteria for this region. Similarly, early warning criteria for other regions were calculated.

[0078] Table 1 Regional early warning criteria

[0079]

[0080]

[0081] Step 7: Based on the regional early warning criteria, a pipeline geological disaster early warning is performed by combining daily actual rainfall data and forecast rainfall data. The forecast rainfall data is used as the actual rainfall on the day of the disaster, and the daily actual rainfall data is used as the actual rainfall six days before the disaster. The daily effective rainfall is calculated, and the need for issuing an early warning is determined based on the regional early warning criteria.

[0082] Of course, the above description is not a limitation of the present invention, and the present invention is not limited to the above examples. Changes, modifications, additions or substitutions made by technicians in this technical field within the essential scope of the present invention should also fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A pipeline geological disaster early warning method considering emergency response capabilities, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: Obtain and standardize emergency resource data along the pipeline; Step 2: Using the standardized pipeline emergency resource data, the emergency capacity along the pipeline is evaluated based on the information quantity method; Step 3: Obtain and standardize geological environment data along the pipeline; Step 4: Using the standardized geological environment data along the pipeline, the geological disaster susceptibility assessment along the pipeline is conducted based on the information quantity method; Step 5: Based on the results of the emergency response capability assessment and the geological disaster susceptibility assessment along the pipeline, early warning zoning is performed along the pipeline; Step 6: Based on the historical disaster occurrence along the pipeline, establish regional early warning criteria; Step 7: Based on the regional early warning criteria, combine the daily actual rainfall data and forecast rainfall data to conduct pipeline geological disaster early warning.

2. The pipeline geological disaster early warning method considering emergency response capability according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The pipeline emergency resource data includes pipeline emergency material distribution data, pipeline hospital distribution data, pipeline fire station distribution data, and pipeline highway distribution data. The emergency material distribution data is used to obtain the emergency materials allocated by the management agency to each station; The emergency supplies include shovels, geobags, forklifts and generators.

3. The pipeline geological disaster early warning method considering emergency response capability according to claim 2 is characterized in that: In step 2, based on the information quantity method, the management section of each station on the pipeline is used as the evaluation area, the minimum evaluation unit is determined according to the maximum scale used for the emergency resource data along the pipeline, the pipeline is gridded according to the minimum evaluation unit, and the emergency capacity information quantity of the pipeline in each evaluation area is calculated according to each emergency capacity influencing factor of the pipeline in each evaluation area, thereby obtaining the emergency capacity evaluation result along the pipeline.

4. The pipeline geological disaster early warning method considering emergency response capability according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The calculation formula of the emergency capability information volume is: Where, I y is the amount of emergency capability information; i is the sequence number; x i is the influencing factor of emergency response capability; A is the emergency event; N i is the number of factors affecting the i-th emergency capacity in the assessment area; N is the number of factors affecting the i-th emergency capacity in the entire pipeline; S i is the length of the pipe section occupied by the i-th emergency capacity influencing factor; S is the total length of the pipeline.

5. The pipeline geological disaster early warning method considering emergency response capability according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The geological environment data along the pipeline include geological disaster data, elevation data, slope data, stratum lithology data, river data and annual average rainfall data along the pipeline.

6. The pipeline geological disaster early warning method considering emergency response capability according to claim 5 is characterized in that: In step 4, based on the information quantity method, the management section of each station on the pipeline is used as the assessment area, and the minimum assessment unit is determined according to the maximum scale used for the geological environment data along the pipeline. The pipeline is gridded according to the minimum assessment unit, and the geological disaster information quantity of the pipeline in each assessment area is calculated according to the various geological disaster influencing factors of the pipeline in each assessment area to obtain the geological disaster susceptibility assessment result along the pipeline.

7. The pipeline geological disaster early warning method considering emergency response capability according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The calculation formula for the amount of geological disaster information is: Where, I d is the amount of geological disaster information; i is the sequence number; y i is the influencing factor of geological disaster i; H is the geological disaster event; M i is the number of the i-th geological hazard influencing factor in the assessment area; M is the number of the i-th geological hazard influencing factor in the entire pipeline; L i is the length of the pipe section occupied by the i-th geological disaster factor; S is the total length of the pipeline.

8. The pipeline geological disaster early warning method considering emergency response capability according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step 5, the emergency response capability assessment results and the geological disaster susceptibility assessment results along the pipeline are normalized; Based on the results of the pipeline emergency response capability assessment, the emergency response capability information value of the pipeline in each assessment area is mapped to [-1, 0]. Based on the results of the geological disaster susceptibility assessment along the pipeline, the geological disaster information value of the pipeline in each assessment area is mapped to [0, 1]. Based on the normalized results of the pipeline emergency response capability assessment and the geological disaster susceptibility assessment along the pipeline, the comprehensive risk index I of the pipeline in each assessment area is calculated. The comprehensive risk index I, I=I y +I d , where I y is the normalized emergency response capability assessment result along the pipeline, I d is the normalized geological disaster susceptibility assessment result along the pipeline; After obtaining the comprehensive risk index of all pipelines in the assessment area, the natural breakpoint method is used to divide the comprehensive risk index into multiple levels of early warning to determine the early warning area along the pipeline.

9. The pipeline geological disaster early warning method considering emergency response capability according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step 6 includes the following sub-steps: Step 6.1: Based on the pipeline geological disaster data in the pipeline geological environment data, the pipeline geological disaster data is matched with the collected actual rainfall data according to the disaster occurrence time; the coordinates of the historical disaster points along the pipeline are determined based on the historical disaster occurrence along the pipeline, and the actual rainfall on the disaster occurrence day and n-1 days before the disaster is calculated, where n is the number of effective rainfall days, determined based on expert experience, and the effective rainfall days are related to the geological environment conditions and disaster occurrence patterns of the warning area; Step 6.2: After the statistics are completed, calculate the effective rainfall at the disaster site; The effective rainfall at the disaster site is: Where R p is the effective rainfall, in mm; R i is the daily rainfall on the i-th day before the disaster occurs, in mm; k is the effective rainfall coefficient. Step 6.3: Based on the actual rainfall on the day of the disaster and n-1 days before the disaster, draw a scatter plot of the relationship between geological disasters and effective rainfall in different periods, fit the critical rainfall for geological disasters in each warning area, and determine the warning criteria for each warning area.

10. The pipeline geological disaster early warning method considering emergency response capability according to claim 9, characterized in that: In step 7, the forecast rainfall data is used as the actual rainfall on the day the disaster occurs, and the daily actual rainfall data is used as the actual rainfall on the n-1 day before the disaster occurs. The daily effective rainfall is calculated, and it is determined whether it is necessary to issue an early warning information based on the regional early warning criteria.

Images