Oil and gas operation cost prediction method and prediction device

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of oil and gas field production cost prediction methods, in particular to an oil and gas operation cost prediction method and device.The oil and gas operation cost prediction method comprises the steps that a block similar to a block to be predicted is searched in historical data, and the single well cost and the single well liquid amount of the similar block in the Nth year and the (N-1) th year are obtained; based on the single well cost of the Nth year and the N-1 year, the single well fixed cost and the ton liquid variable cost are calculated; obtaining the well opening number and the liquid production capacity in the to-be-predicted block; and calculating the operation cost of the to-be-predicted block based on the single well fixed cost, the well opening number, the ton liquid variable cost, the liquid production capacity and the oil production capacity. The single well fixed cost and the ton liquid variable cost of the to-be-predicted block are rapidly and accurately calculated, the problem that classification of the fixed cost and the variable cost of a related factor method is inaccurate is solved, the problem that an overall assignment method is influenced by human factors is solved, and the problem that classification of the fixed cost and the variable cost is difficult is solved; the purpose of preventing prediction from being influenced by human factors is achieved.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of oil and gas field production cost prediction method, and is an oil and gas operation cost prediction method and a prediction device. BACKGROUND

[0002] The oil and gas operation cost is a main component of the oil and gas field production cost, and has become an operating index most concerned by oil and gas enterprises. At present, dozens of exploration and development projects are involved in the annual deployment of oil and gas enterprises, and economic evaluation is required. One of the cash outflow projects in the economic evaluation is the operating cost, which is composed of the operation cost and the period cost, and the operation cost accounts for about 40%, which is an important component and an important factor affecting the economic evaluation result. Therefore, during the economic evaluation period, it is crucial to predict the operation cost of numerous oil and gas exploration and development projects, which not only requires reflecting the basic law of the operation cost, but also needs to adapt to the annual exploration and development deployment to achieve the purpose of fast and effective prediction.

[0003] The domestic oil and gas fields have various reservoir types, wide distribution range, different project management levels and large differences in oil and gas operation cost levels. How to quickly and effectively predict the operation cost becomes a problem that needs to be seriously considered. At present, the academic and enterprise management levels for predicting the operation cost are divided into three methods: the first method is the relevant factor method, that is, the operation cost is opened to the constituent items, and each element is predicted one by one. According to the production process method, the operation cost can be divided into 11 items including production operation fee, oil displacement material injection fee, heavy oil thermal recovery fee, oil and gas treatment fee, light hydrocarbon recovery fee, downhole operation fee, well logging and testing fee, natural gas purification fee, maintenance and repair fee, transportation fee and plant and mine management fee. According to the production factor method, it can be divided into 8 items including material fee, fuel fee, power fee, personnel fee, maintenance and repair fee, transportation fee, outsourcing operation expenditure and other direct fees. Then, according to the correlation between each item and the number of wells or liquid volume, it is divided into fixed and variable costs for prediction one by one. This method is only accurate on the surface because the operation cost is composed of 88 items. With the change of the number of wells and liquid volume, the fixed and variable costs generated by this classification are always changing. If no adjustment coefficient is set, there is a large error in the evaluation result. Therefore, this method is not only time-consuming, but also does not fundamentally solve the problem. The second method is to assign the operation cost as a whole, that is, without opening the cost composition, the historical change value of the operation cost of the oil and gas field block is artificially valued, for example, the operation cost of the block that has been developed for a short time has been in a slow downward trend in recent years. Therefore, the average value of the last two years or the value of the last year is taken. After taking the value according to the historical change, in the 15-year evaluation period, there are three methods: one is to take a unique value without change; the second is to consider that the water cut increases in the later period, and the operation cost per ton of oil increases according to a certain growth rate; the third is to consider that the liquid volume decreases in the later period, and the operation cost per single well decreases according to a certain growth rate. This method is convenient and fast, but the change (unchanged or a certain degree of growth) is valued by experience, the valuation method is rough, and the subjective factor is large. The third method is to artificially divide the 88 items into fixed cost and variable cost, which has a huge workload and is difficult to implement in practice.

[0004] The Chinese patent document with the application number CN202110179693.5 discloses an oil and gas operation cost prediction method, device, electronic equipment and medium. The patent application document proposes that the operation cost should be divided into fixed cost and variable cost, but does not solve the problems of not finding absolute fixed and variable cost quotas and huge workload existing in the first and third methods.

[0005] In the process of implementing the present application, the inventors found that the existing technology at least has the following problems: the prediction is affected by human factors, lacks objectivity, and the operation is complex. SUMMARY

[0006] The present application provides an oil and gas operation cost prediction method and prediction device, which overcomes the deficiencies of the prior art, and can accurately calculate the fixed and variable costs of oil and gas operation cost, and further quickly predict the operation cost.

[0007] One of the technical solutions of the present application is realized by the following measures: an oil and gas operation cost prediction method, comprising the following steps:

[0008] Step 1, find similar blocks to the block to be predicted in the historical data, obtain the single-well cost of the similar block in the Nth year and the (N-1)th year, and obtain the single-well liquid volume of the similar block in the Nth year and the (N-1)th year;

[0009] Step 2, based on the single-well cost in the Nth year and the single-well cost in the (N-1)th year, calculate the single-well fixed cost and the ton of liquid variable cost;

[0010] Step 3, obtain the number of wells N w and the liquid production Q 液 in the block to be predicted;

[0011] Step 4, based on the single-well fixed cost, the number of wells, the ton of liquid variable cost, the liquid production and the oil production, calculate the operation cost of the block to be predicted.

[0012] The following is a further optimization or / and improvement of the above-mentioned technical solutions of the application:

[0013] In the above step 2, the single-well cost = single-well fixed cost C f + single-well liquid volume × ton of liquid variable cost C v , C f and C v are calculated, that is:

[0014] The single-well cost in the Nth year = C f + single-well liquid volume in the Nth year × C v

[0015] The single-well cost in the (N-1)th year = C f + single-well liquid volume in the (N-1)th year × C v .

[0016] In the above step 4, the operation cost of the block to be predicted is:

[0017]

[0018] C represents the operation cost, C f represents the single-well fixed cost, N w represents the number of wells, C v represents the ton of liquid variable cost, Q 液 represents the liquid production, and Q 油 represents the oil production.

[0019] The second technical solution of the present application is realized by the following measures: an oil and gas operation cost prediction device for implementing the oil and gas operation cost prediction method of the first technical solution, comprising:

[0020] A single-well cost obtaining module is configured to find similar blocks to the block to be predicted in historical data and obtain single-well costs of the similar blocks.

[0021] A single-well fluid volume obtaining module is configured to find similar blocks to the block to be predicted in historical data and obtain single-well fluid volumes of the similar blocks.

[0022] A number of open wells in the block to be predicted obtaining module is configured to obtain the number of open wells N w in the block to be predicted.

[0023] A liquid production volume in the block to be predicted obtaining module is configured to obtain the liquid production volume Q 液 in the block to be predicted.

[0024] An oil production volume in the block to be predicted obtaining module is configured to obtain the oil production volume Q 油 in the block to be predicted.

[0025] A prediction module is configured to predict the operation cost C of the block to be predicted.

[0026] A value module is configured to implant the operation cost into economic evaluation software.

[0027] The present application quickly and accurately calculates the single-well fixed cost and ton of liquid variable cost of the block to be predicted, solves the problem of inaccurate classification of fixed cost and variable cost in the first related factor method, solves the problem of artificial factor influence in the second overall assignment method, and solves the problem of difficult classification of fixed and variable costs in the third method, thereby achieving the purposes of avoiding prediction affected by artificial factors, high objectivity, simple operation, and fast calculation. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0028] The total operation cost in each year within the 15-year evaluation period is assigned. Figure 1 The total operation cost in each year within the 15-year evaluation period is assigned.

[0029] The total operation cost in each year within the 15-year evaluation period is assigned. Figure 2 The total operation cost in each year within the 15-year evaluation period is assigned. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0030] The present application is not limited by the following examples, and the specific implementation can be determined according to the technical solutions of the present application and the actual situation.

[0031] The present application will be further described below in combination with examples:

[0032] Example 1: An oil and gas operation cost prediction method, comprising the following steps:

[0033] Step 1, find similar blocks to the block to be predicted in historical data, obtain the single-well cost of the similar block in the Nth year and the (N-1)th year, and obtain the single-well liquid volume of the similar block in the Nth year and the (N-1)th year;

[0034] Step 2, based on single-well cost = single-well fixed cost C f + single-well liquid volume × ton liquid variable cost C v , calculate C f and C v , that is:

[0035] single-well cost in the Nth year = C f + single-well liquid volume in the Nth year × C v

[0036] single-well cost in the (N-1)th year = C f + single-well liquid volume in the (N-1)th year × C v

[0037] Step 3, obtain the number of wells N w and the liquid production Q 液 in the block to be predicted;

[0038] Step 4, the operating cost of the block to be predicted is:

[0039]

[0040] C represents the operating cost, C f represents the single-well fixed cost, N w represents the number of wells, C v represents the ton liquid variable cost, Q 液 represents the liquid production, and Q 油 represents the oil production.

[0041] Embodiment 2: An oil and gas operating cost prediction device implementing the oil and gas operating cost prediction method described in the above embodiment, comprising:

[0042] a single-well cost obtaining module, configured to find similar blocks to the block to be predicted in historical data and obtain the single-well cost of the similar blocks;

[0043] a single-well liquid volume obtaining module, configured to find similar blocks to the block to be predicted in historical data and obtain the single-well liquid volume of the similar blocks;

[0044] a number of wells in the block to be predicted obtaining module, configured to obtain the number of wells N w in the block to be predicted;

[0045] a liquid production in the block to be predicted obtaining module, configured to obtain the liquid production Q 液 in the block to be predicted;

[0046] an oil production amount obtaining module configured to obtain an oil production amount Q in the to-be-predicted block 油 ;

[0047] a prediction module configured to predict an operation cost C of the to-be-predicted block based on the algorithm of step 4;

[0048] a value obtaining module configured to implant the operation cost into economic evaluation software.

[0049] Implementation case

[0050] The technical solution of the present application is illustrated by taking a certain unconventional reservoir in the Tuha oilfield as an example. It should be noted that the present application is by no means limited to the example reservoir.

[0051] The specific implementation steps are as follows:

[0052] (1) Calculate the absolute fixed cost of a single well and the absolute variable cost per ton of liquid

[0053] Generally, the absolute fixed cost of a single well in the same region does not change much, and the absolute variable cost per ton of liquid in the same region and the same reservoir type does not change much.

[0054] According to a certain unconventional reservoir in the Tuha oilfield, the operation cost of a single well in 2022 was 1.21 million yuan, the liquid production of a single well was 63,000 tons, the operation cost of a single well in 2021 was 1.12 million yuan, and the liquid production of a single well was 50,000 tons.

[0055] According to the formula of step 2:

[0056] 121 = C f + 0.63 x C v

[0057] 112 = C f + 0.5 x C v

[0058] C can be obtained f The fixed cost of a single well is 7.7 million yuan, and C v The variable cost per ton of liquid is 69 yuan / ton.

[0059] This method solves the problem of artificial classification of fixed cost and variable cost habits and the problem that classification cannot be exhaustive in the oil and gas industry and in the Chinese patent document with the application number CN202110179693.5 entitled "Oil and gas operation cost prediction method, device, electronic equipment and medium".

[0060] (2) Calculate the total operation cost of each year in the to-be-tested block evaluation period

[0061] The number of wells and the liquid production are shown in Table 1 according to the design scheme of the exploration and development project.

[0062] Single well fixed cost C f Multiply by the number of wells opened each year N w Get the fixed operating cost of the block each year, ton of liquid variable cost C v Multiply by the liquid production each year to get the variable operating cost of the block each year, the fixed operating cost of the block each year plus the variable operating cost of the block each year to get the total operating cost of the block each year C. Operating cost as an important constituent item in the cash outflow in economic evaluation, the present application and the traditional only numerical value method are compared, and it is found that the cash outflow also has a large difference (as shown in Figure 1 ), which will cause different economic evaluation results.

[0063] The total operating cost of each year in the 15-year evaluation period is valued as shown in Figure 1 .

[0064] (3) Find the ton of oil operating cost of the block to be measured each year in the evaluation period

[0065] The total operating cost C each year is divided by the annual oil production Q 油 , to get the ton of oil operating cost in the evaluation period (as shown by the solid line), which is compared with the traditional only value method (as shown by the dashed line), and it is found that there is a big difference between the two. Figure 2 Figure 2

[0066] The ton of oil operating cost in the 15-year evaluation period is shown in Figure 2 .

[0067] The embodiment has the following advantages: ① The method provides a good parameter value basis for economic benefit calculation of oil and gas exploration and development deployment. It not only starts from the factors of cost composition, to a certain extent, avoids the shortcomings of human factors, but also is suitable for the needs of rapid and effective evaluation of many exploration and development projects. ② The method has a good theoretical basis, is reasonable, and the steps are simple and easy to operate, and is practical. It is not necessary to obtain the result through complex composition. ③ The method has wide applicability and can be applied to the economic evaluation of operating cost parameter valuation of group annual, group batch, oilfield branch and other exploration and development projects.

[0068] The above technical features constitute the embodiment of the present application, which has strong adaptability and implementation effect. Non-essential technical features can be added or reduced according to actual needs to meet the needs of different situations.

[0069] Table 1

[0070] ​​

Claims

1. A method of oil and gas operating cost prediction, characterized by The method comprises the following steps: Step 1, searching for similar blocks to the block to be predicted in historical data, and obtaining single-well costs of the similar blocks in the Nth year and the (N-1)th year; Step 2, calculating single-well fixed costs and ton-liquid variable costs based on the single-well costs in the Nth year and the (N-1)th year; Step 3, obtain the number of open wells N in the block to be predicted w and the fluid production rate Q 液 ; Step 4, calculating operating costs of the block to be predicted based on the single-well fixed costs, the number of open wells, the ton-liquid variable costs, the liquid production and the oil production.

2. The oil and gas operating cost prediction method of claim 1, wherein In step 1, the single-well liquid amounts of the similar blocks in the Nth year and the (N-1)th year are also obtained.

3. The oil and gas operating cost prediction method of claim 2, wherein In Step 2, single well cost = single well fixed cost C f + single well fluid volume x variable cost per ton of fluid C v , solve for C f and C v .

4. The oil and gas operating cost prediction method of claim 3, wherein Nth year single well cost = C f + Nth year single well fluid volume x C v .

5. The oil and gas operating cost prediction method of claim 3 or 4, wherein N-1 year single well cost = C f + N-1 year single well fluid volume x C v .

6. The oil and gas operating cost prediction method of claim 3 or 4, wherein In step 4, the operating costs of the block to be predicted are: C represents operating cost, C f N represents single well fixed cost, N w C represents the number of wells, C v Q represents variable cost per ton of liquid, Q 液 Q represents the amount of liquid produced, Q 油 Q represents the amount of oil produced.

7. The oil and gas operating cost prediction method of claim 5, wherein In step 4, the operating costs of the block to be predicted are: C represents operating cost, C f N represents single well fixed cost, N w C represents the number of wells, C v Q represents variable cost per ton of liquid, Q 液 Q represents the amount of liquid produced, Q 油 Q represents the amount of oil produced.

8. An oil and gas operation cost prediction device for implementing the oil and gas operation cost prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized by, The method comprises the following steps: A single-well cost obtaining module is configured to search for similar blocks to the block to be predicted in historical data, and obtain single-well costs of the similar blocks; A single-well liquid amount obtaining module is configured to search for similar blocks to the block to be predicted in historical data, and obtain single-well liquid amounts of the similar blocks; A number-of-open-wells-in-the-block-to-be-predicted obtaining module is configured to obtain the number of open wells in the block to be predicted; A liquid-production-in-the-block-to-be-predicted obtaining module is configured to obtain the liquid production in the block to be predicted; An oil-production-in-the-block-to-be-predicted obtaining module is configured to obtain the oil production in the block to be predicted; A prediction module is configured to predict operating costs of the block to be predicted; A value module is configured to implant the operating costs into economic evaluation software.

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