Multi-parameter adaptive life evaluation system and method for single-photon detector

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of single-photon detectors, and discloses a multi-parameter adaptive life evaluation system and method for a single-photon detector, and the system comprises a parameter collection module, a prediction model module, a target parameter recognition module, a confidence calculation module, and a life evaluation module. The method corresponds to the system. According to the invention, through sequential parameter acquisition and multi-node performance prediction, in combination with target parameter identification, confidence verification and weight dynamic correction, the accuracy and reliability of single-photon detector life evaluation are significantly improved; capturing the real-time degradation trend of the performance parameters through dynamic tracking of three time nodes; key parameters are accurately positioned based on influence weights, and redundant information interference is avoided; the confidence coefficient is introduced to quantify the parameter reliability to ensure the scientificity of the evaluation basis; therefore, life evaluation with multi-parameter collaboration, time sequence self-adaption and confidence controllable is integrally achieved, and the method is suitable for life prediction of the single-photon detector under complex working conditions.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of single photon detector, and particularly relates to a single photon detector multi-parameter adaptive lifetime evaluation system and method. BACKGROUND

[0002] As a core device in the fields of quantum communication and weak light detection, the lifetime evaluation of a single photon detector is crucial to the reliability of a system. In the prior art, the lifetime evaluation is mostly dependent on a single performance parameter (such as quantum efficiency decay) or a static model, and it is difficult to reflect the synergistic degradation effect of multiple parameters.

[0003] Although the prior art introduces the correlation of working parameters such as voltage and temperature, it does not dynamically track the performance changes in the time sequence dimension, resulting in that the evaluation results lag behind the actual degradation state. At the same time, the prior art lacks accurate identification of key influencing parameters, and does not verify and optimize the parameter weights through confidence, so it is difficult to adapt to the lifetime prediction requirements of the detector under complex working conditions, and has problems such as low evaluation accuracy and poor adaptability.

[0004] A Chinese invention patent with the authorized announcement number CN118190182B discloses a single photon detector refrigeration control method and system with adaptive temperature and TEC performance changes, but the lifetime analysis of the invention in the time sequence dimension is poor.

[0005] In summary, there is an urgent need for a new single photon detector multi-parameter adaptive lifetime evaluation technical solution. SUMMARY

[0006] The present application aims to provide a single photon detector multi-parameter adaptive lifetime evaluation system and method to solve the technical problems proposed in the background.

[0007] To achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application discloses the following technical solutions:

[0008] In a first aspect, the present application discloses a single photon detector multi-parameter adaptive lifetime evaluation system, which comprises:

[0009] A parameter acquisition module is configured to acquire working parameters and corresponding actual performance parameters of a single photon detector at a first time node, a second time node subsequent to the first time node, and a third time node subsequent to the second time node.

[0010] A prediction model module is preconfigured with an associated model of working parameters and performance parameters, and is configured to predict the performance parameters at the second time node based on the working parameters and actual performance parameters at the first time node through the associated model, and to predict the performance parameters at the third time node based on the working parameters and actual performance parameters at the second time node through the associated model.

[0011] a target parameter identification module, configured to compare the actual performance parameters of the second time node with the predicted performance parameters of the second time node, calculate the influence weight of each performance parameter on the prediction difference, and determine at least one performance parameter meeting a preset condition as a target performance parameter according to the influence weight;

[0012] a confidence calculation module, configured to calculate the confidence of the target performance parameter based on the difference between the actual performance parameter and the predicted performance parameter of the third time node in each target performance parameter;

[0013] a life evaluation module, configured to obtain a final life prediction result based on the confidence of the target performance parameter, the working parameter and the actual performance parameter of the third time node.

[0014] Preferably, when the prediction model module predicts the performance parameters of the second time node and the third time node, the prediction is based on the working parameter variation of the previous time node, the actual performance parameter degradation rate and a preset parameter degradation coefficient, and the parameter degradation coefficient is determined based on the device type of the single photon detector.

[0015] Preferably, the preset condition in the target parameter identification module includes:

[0016] The target performance parameter is at least one performance parameter having the largest influence weight on the prediction difference, and when there are multiple performance parameters having the same influence weight and the same maximum value, the multiple performance parameters are all determined as target performance parameters.

[0017] Preferably, the influence weight is determined by a contribution rate of a performance parameter, and the contribution rate is a ratio of the predicted deviation absolute value of the performance parameter to the sum of the predicted deviation absolute values of all performance parameters.

[0018] Preferably, when the confidence calculation module calculates the confidence of the target performance parameter, the confidence is determined based on the predicted deviation absolute value of a target performance parameter corresponding to the third time node and the actual value of the target performance parameter of the third time node.

[0019] Preferably, when the life evaluation module obtains the final life prediction result, the life evaluation module includes:

[0020] extrapolating the time when each performance parameter reaches a preset failure threshold based on the actual performance parameter and the working parameter of the third time node through the correlation model;

[0021] correcting the extrapolated time based on the confidence of each target performance parameter, and the confidence and the correction amplitude are negatively correlated.

[0022] Preferably, the system further comprises a threshold setting module configured to preset a confidence threshold, the confidence threshold being a critical value for judging whether the confidence of the performance parameter is valid.

[0023] Preferably, the confidence calculating module is further configured to calculate the confidence of all performance parameters, and compare the confidence of each performance parameter with the confidence threshold, and screen out performance parameters whose confidence is greater than or equal to the confidence threshold to obtain a set of valid performance parameters.

[0024] Preferably, the life evaluation module further comprises a weight correction unit configured to correct the original weight of each performance parameter in life evaluation based on the confidence of the performance parameter in the set of valid performance parameters; wherein the confidence is positively correlated with the corrected weight; and the life evaluation module obtains a final life prediction result based on the corrected weight, the working parameter of the third time node and the actual performance parameter.

[0025] In a second aspect, the present application discloses a single-photon detector multi-parameter adaptive life evaluation method, which is applied to the single-photon detector multi-parameter adaptive life evaluation system as described above, and the method comprises the following steps:

[0026] S1: collecting the working parameter and the corresponding actual performance parameter of the single-photon detector at a first time node, a second time node subsequent to the first time node and a third time node subsequent to the second time node;

[0027] S2: obtaining a preset correlation model of the working parameter and the performance parameter, predicting the performance parameter of the second time node based on the working parameter and the actual performance parameter of the first time node through the correlation model, and predicting the performance parameter of the third time node based on the working parameter and the actual performance parameter of the second time node through the correlation model;

[0028] S3: comparing the actual performance parameter of the second time node with the predicted performance parameter of the second time node, calculating the influence weight of each performance parameter on the prediction difference, and determining at least one performance parameter whose influence weight meets a preset condition as a target performance parameter;

[0029] S4: calculating the confidence of the target performance parameter based on the difference of the target performance parameter between the actual performance parameter of the third time node and the predicted performance parameter of the third time node;

[0030] S5: obtaining a final life prediction result based on the confidence of the target performance parameter, the working parameter of the third time node and the actual performance parameter.

[0031] Beneficial effects: the single photon detector multi-parameter adaptive lifetime evaluation system and method of the application, through timing parameter acquisition and multi-node performance prediction, combined with target parameter identification, confidence verification and weight dynamic correction, significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of single photon detector lifetime evaluation; through dynamic tracking of three time nodes, the real-time degradation trend of performance parameters is captured; based on the accurate positioning of key parameters by influence weight, redundant information interference is avoided; the reliability of the confidence quantification parameter is introduced, combined with threshold screening of effective parameters to ensure the scientificity of the evaluation basis; through dynamic adjustment of the weight, high confidence parameters dominate the evaluation results; thus, the multi-parameter cooperation, time sequence adaptation and confidence controllable lifetime evaluation are realized, solving the problems of static, single parameter dependence and lack of reliability verification in the prior art, and being suitable for single photon detector lifetime prediction under complex working conditions. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0032] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application or the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments or prior art description will be briefly introduced. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present application, and other drawings can be obtained by those skilled in the art without creative labor.

[0033] Figure 1 The structural block diagram of the single photon detector multi-parameter adaptive lifetime evaluation system provided by the embodiments of the present application is shown in the figure.

[0034] Figure 2 The flowchart of the single photon detector multi-parameter adaptive lifetime evaluation method provided by the embodiments of the present application is shown in the figure. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0035] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be described clearly and completely below. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some of the embodiments of the present application, not all. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative labor are within the scope of protection of the present application.

[0036] In this document, the term "comprising" is intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that the process, method, article or device including a series of elements not only includes those elements, but also includes other elements not explicitly listed or inherent to such process, method, article or device. Without more limitations, the elements defined by the statement "comprising" do not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or device including the elements.

[0037] Embodiment one

[0038] The life evaluation of single photon detector needs to comprehensively consider the dynamic change of performance parameters with time, but the existing technology mostly adopts static evaluation or single parameter analysis, it is difficult to reflect the coordinated degradation law of multiple parameters, and lacks the verification mechanism of prediction reliability, resulting in large deviation of the evaluation result from the actual life. The embodiment sets three time sequence nodes, constructs a complete system of parameter collection, performance prediction, target identification, confidence calculation and life evaluation, realizes dynamic life evaluation of multiple parameter fusion, effectively improves the prediction accuracy, and solves the problems of poor adaptability and insufficient reliability of the existing technology.

[0039] As shown in Figure 1 The embodiment discloses a single photon detector multi-parameter adaptive life evaluation system, which comprises:

[0040] A parameter collection module is configured to collect the working parameters and the corresponding actual performance parameters of the single photon detector at a first time node, a second time node subsequent to the first time node, and a third time node subsequent to the second time node. In the embodiment, the working parameters can include voltage and temperature, and the performance parameters can include one or more of dark count rate, detection efficiency, after-pulse probability, and quantum efficiency decay.

[0041] A prediction model module is configured to have an associated model of the working parameters and the performance parameters, and is configured to predict the performance parameters at the second time node based on the working parameters and the actual performance parameters at the first time node through the associated model, and to predict the performance parameters at the third time node based on the working parameters and the actual performance parameters at the second time node through the associated model. It should be noted that in the embodiment, the associated model can be an existing time sequence degradation model.

[0042] A target parameter identification module is configured to compare the actual performance parameters at the second time node with the predicted performance parameters at the second time node, calculate the influence weight of each performance parameter on the prediction difference, and determine at least one performance parameter meeting a preset condition as a target performance parameter.

[0043] A confidence calculation module is configured to calculate the confidence of the target performance parameter based on the difference between the actual performance parameters at the third time node and the predicted performance parameters at the third time node.

[0044] A life evaluation module is configured to obtain a final life prediction result based on the confidence of the target performance parameter, the working parameters at the third time node, and the actual performance parameters.

[0045] The prediction model of performance parameters often ignores the influence of working parameter changes and device individual differences, resulting in a large deviation between the prediction result and the actual value. By introducing the working parameter change, the performance degradation rate and the degradation coefficient related to the device type, the prediction of performance parameters is more in line with the actual degradation characteristics of the detector, providing more accurate basic data for subsequent target parameter identification and life assessment, and improving the adaptability and prediction accuracy of the model.

[0046] Specifically, when predicting the performance parameters at the second time node and the third time node, the prediction model module is based on the working parameter change, the actual performance parameter degradation rate and the preset parameter degradation coefficient at the previous time node, and the parameter degradation coefficient is determined based on the device type of the single-photon detector.

[0047] Due to the lack of clear screening criteria, there are problems of missing or redundant key parameters in identifying key parameters affecting the life, which affects the evaluation efficiency. The embodiment accurately locates the parameters that contribute most to the prediction difference by the standard with the largest influence weight, and is compatible with the scene of multiple parallel maximum weight parameters, ensuring that the key parameters are not missed, and improving the scientificity and comprehensiveness of target parameter identification.

[0048] Specifically, the preset conditions in the target parameter identification module include:

[0049] The target performance parameter is at least one of the performance parameters with the largest influence weight on the prediction difference. When there are multiple performance parameters with the same influence weight and the maximum value, the multiple performance parameters are determined as the target performance parameters.

[0050] The influence weight of the performance parameter on the prediction difference lacks a quantitative calculation method, resulting in strong subjectivity of target parameter identification. The embodiment quantifies the influence weight by the contribution rate algorithm, reflects the contribution of a single parameter to the overall difference by the prediction deviation proportion, makes the weight calculation objective and quantifiable, avoids the error of human judgment, and further improves the accuracy and reliability of target performance parameter identification.

[0051] Specifically, the influence weight is determined by the contribution rate of a performance parameter, and the contribution rate is the ratio of the absolute value of the prediction deviation of the performance parameter to the sum of the absolute values of the prediction deviations of all performance parameters.

[0052] Due to the lack of effective evaluation of the reliability of the target parameter, the life prediction result based on the unreliable parameter has the problem of low credibility. The embodiment quantifies the prediction reliability of the target parameter at the third time node by comparing the prediction deviation with the actual value, provides an objective index for the subsequent correction of life assessment, and solves the problem of unknown effectiveness of the target parameter.

[0053] Specifically, when the confidence calculation module calculates the confidence of the target performance parameter, the confidence is determined based on the predicted deviation absolute value of the target performance parameter corresponding to the third time node and the actual value of the target performance parameter at the third time node.

[0054] Further, in the prior art, when predicting the life, the performance parameter is directly extrapolated to the failure threshold, without considering the reliability difference of the prediction result, resulting in limited evaluation accuracy. The two-step method of extrapolating time and confidence correction in the embodiment allows the target parameter with high confidence to have a greater impact on the final result, and the low-confidence parameter is weakened, so that the life prediction result is more consistent with the actual degradation law, and the evaluation accuracy is significantly improved.

[0055] Specifically, when the life evaluation module obtains the final life prediction result, the life prediction result includes:

[0056] Based on the actual performance parameters and working parameters at the third time node, the time when each performance parameter reaches the preset failure threshold is extrapolated through an association model; in the embodiment, the preset failure threshold is the critical value of the performance parameter of the single-photon detector in a typical application scenario, such as the critical value of the dark count rate, the critical value of the detection efficiency, the critical value of the after-pulse probability, and the critical value of the quantum efficiency decay, and the critical value can be dynamically adjusted according to the accuracy requirement of the actual application scenario.

[0057] The extrapolated time is corrected based on the confidence of each target performance parameter, and the confidence is negatively correlated with the correction amplitude.

[0058] In actual application, there is a problem of lacking an effective judgment standard for the confidence of the performance parameter, which may include low-reliability parameters in the evaluation, interfering with the accuracy of the result. The threshold setting module is added in the embodiment to pre-set the confidence threshold as the judgment standard for the effectiveness of the parameter, so that reliable performance parameters can be selected to avoid the interference of low-confidence parameters, and quality guarantee is provided for subsequent evaluation.

[0059] Specifically, the system further includes a threshold setting module configured to pre-set a confidence threshold, and the confidence threshold is a critical value for judging whether the confidence of the performance parameter is effective.

[0060] Further, since most confidence analysis only focuses on the size of the confidence of the target parameter, potential high-reliability parameters in other performance parameters are ignored, resulting in incomplete evaluation dimensions. The confidence of all performance parameters is calculated and compared with the threshold in the embodiment to form a set of effective performance parameters, which expands the parameter range of the evaluation, ensures that high-reliability parameters are considered, and improves the comprehensiveness and robustness of the life evaluation.

[0061] Specifically, the confidence calculation module is further configured to calculate the confidence of all performance parameters, compare the confidence of each performance parameter with a confidence threshold, and screen out performance parameters with a confidence greater than or equal to the confidence threshold to obtain an effective performance parameter set.

[0062] Since the weights of the performance parameters are generally fixed and unchanged, the differences in reliability are not reflected, resulting in biased evaluation results for unreliable parameters. In this embodiment, the weight correction unit dynamically adjusts the weights based on the confidence of the effective parameters, and the higher the confidence, the greater the weight, so that reliable parameters dominate in the evaluation, further optimizing the rationality and accuracy of the life prediction.

[0063] Specifically, the life evaluation module further includes a weight correction unit configured to correct the original weight of each performance parameter in the life evaluation based on the confidence of each performance parameter in the effective performance parameter set; wherein the confidence is positively correlated with the corrected weight; and the life evaluation module obtains a final life prediction result based on the corrected weight, the working parameters at the third time node, and the actual performance parameters.

[0064] Embodiment Two

[0065] As shown in Figure 2 The present embodiment discloses a single-photon detector multi-parameter adaptive life evaluation method, which is applied to the single-photon detector multi-parameter adaptive life evaluation system as described above. The method comprises:

[0066] S1: Collecting the working parameters and corresponding actual performance parameters of the single-photon detector at a first time node, a second time node subsequent to the first time node, and a third time node subsequent to the second time node;

[0067] S2: Obtaining a preset association model of the working parameters and the performance parameters, predicting the performance parameters at the second time node based on the working parameters and the actual performance parameters at the first time node through the association model, and predicting the performance parameters at the third time node based on the working parameters and the actual performance parameters at the second time node through the association model;

[0068] S3: Comparing the actual performance parameters at the second time node with the predicted performance parameters at the second time node, calculating the influence weight of each performance parameter on the prediction difference, and determining at least one performance parameter with an influence weight meeting a preset condition as a target performance parameter;

[0069] S4: Calculating the confidence of the target performance parameter based on the difference between the actual performance parameters at the third time node and the predicted performance parameters at the third time node of each target performance parameter;

[0070] S5: obtaining a final life prediction result based on the confidence of the target performance parameter, the working parameter of the third time node, and the actual performance parameter.

[0071] It should be noted that the single-photon detector multi-parameter adaptive life evaluation method of the present embodiment corresponds to the single-photon detector multi-parameter adaptive life evaluation system described above. Therefore, the contents not specifically described in the single-photon detector multi-parameter adaptive life evaluation method of the present embodiment, which can be but are not limited to function definition, working principle and technical effect, can be referred to the description in the single-photon detector multi-parameter adaptive life evaluation system described above, and the present text will not be repeated here.

[0072] In summary, the single-photon detector multi-parameter adaptive life evaluation system and method of the present embodiment significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of single-photon detector life evaluation through time-series parameter acquisition and multi-node performance prediction, combined with target parameter identification, confidence verification and weight dynamic correction. Through dynamic tracking of three time nodes, the real-time degradation trend of performance parameters is captured. Based on the accurate positioning of key parameters by influence weight, redundant information interference is avoided. The reliability of the confidence quantification parameter is introduced, combined with threshold screening of effective parameters to ensure the scientificity of the evaluation basis. Through dynamic adjustment of the weight, high-confidence parameters dominate the evaluation results. Thus, the life evaluation of multi-parameter cooperation, time series adaptation and confidence control is realized as a whole, solving the problems of static, single-parameter dependence and lack of reliability verification in the prior art, and being suitable for single-photon detector life prediction under complex working conditions.

[0073] In the embodiments provided by the present application, it should be understood that the embodiments described herein can be realized by hardware, software, firmware, middleware, codes or any proper combination thereof. For hardware implementation, the processor can be realized in one or more of the following components: an application specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a digital signal processor (DSP), a digital signal processing device (DSPD), a programmable logic device (PLD), a field programmable gate array (FPGA), a processor, a controller, a microcontroller, a microprocessor, other electronic units designed to perform the functions described herein, or a combination thereof. For software implementation, the procedures described herein can be implemented with a computer program that is written in any suitable programming language. The program can be stored in a computer readable storage medium or transmitted as one or more instructions or codes on the computer readable storage medium. The computer readable storage medium includes any storage medium that can be accessed by a computer. The computer readable storage medium can include but is not limited to the following media: a RAM, a ROM, an EEPROM, a CD-ROM or other optical disc storage, a magnetic disk storage medium or other magnetic storage device, or any other medium that can be used to carry or store desired program codes in the form of instructions or data structures and can be accessed by a computer.

[0074] Finally, it should be noted that the above only describes the preferred embodiments of the present application and is not intended to limit the present application. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, modifications or equivalent replacements of some technical features described in the foregoing embodiments can be made by those skilled in the art, and any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present application shall be included in the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A multi-parameter adaptive lifetime assessment system for a single-photon detector, characterized in that, The system includes: The parameter acquisition module is used to acquire the operating parameters and corresponding actual performance parameters of the single-photon detector at the first time node, the second time node following the first time node, and the third time node following the second time node, respectively. The prediction model module has a preset correlation model between working parameters and performance parameters. It is used to predict the performance parameters at the second time point based on the working parameters and actual performance parameters at the first time point through the correlation model. It is also used to predict the performance parameters at the third time point based on the working parameters and actual performance parameters at the second time point through the correlation model. The target parameter identification module is used to compare the actual performance parameters at the second time point with the predicted performance parameters at the second time point, calculate the influence weight of each performance parameter on the difference in the prediction, and determine at least one performance parameter whose influence weight meets the preset conditions as the target performance parameter. The confidence calculation module is used to calculate the confidence of the target performance parameter based on the difference between the actual performance parameter and the predicted performance parameter of the third time node. The lifespan assessment module is used to obtain the final lifespan prediction result based on the confidence level of the target performance parameters, the operating parameters at the third time point, and the actual performance parameters.

2. The multi-parameter adaptive lifetime assessment system for single-photon detectors according to claim 1, characterized in that, When the prediction model module predicts the performance parameters at the second and third time nodes, it does so based on the change in the working parameters at the previous time node, the actual performance parameter degradation rate, and the preset parameter degradation coefficient. The parameter degradation coefficient is determined based on the device type of the single-photon detector.

3. The multi-parameter adaptive lifetime assessment system for single-photon detectors according to claim 1, characterized in that, The preset conditions in the target parameter identification module include: The target performance parameter is selected by choosing at least one of the performance parameters that has the largest weight influencing the prediction difference. When there are multiple performance parameters with the same weight and all of them being the maximum value, all of these multiple performance parameters are determined as the target performance parameter.

4. The multi-parameter adaptive lifetime assessment system for single-photon detectors according to claim 3, characterized in that, The influence weight is determined by the contribution rate of a performance parameter, which is the ratio of the absolute value of the prediction deviation of that performance parameter to the sum of the absolute values ​​of the prediction deviations of all performance parameters.

5. The multi-parameter adaptive lifetime assessment system for single-photon detectors according to claim 1, characterized in that, When calculating the confidence level of the target performance parameter, the confidence level calculation module is determined based on the absolute value of the prediction deviation of the target performance parameter corresponding to the third time node and the actual value of the target performance parameter at the third time node.

6. The multi-parameter adaptive lifetime assessment system for single-photon detectors according to claim 5, characterized in that, When the life assessment module obtains the final life prediction result, it includes: Based on the actual performance parameters and working parameters at the third time point, the time when each performance parameter reaches the preset failure threshold is extrapolated through the correlation model. The extrapolated time is corrected based on the confidence level of each target performance parameter, and the confidence level is negatively correlated with the correction magnitude.

7. The multi-parameter adaptive lifetime assessment system for single-photon detectors according to claim 1, characterized in that, The system also includes a threshold setting module for presetting a confidence threshold, which is a critical value for judging whether the confidence of a performance parameter is valid.

8. The multi-parameter adaptive lifetime assessment system for single-photon detectors according to claim 7, characterized in that, The confidence calculation module is also used to calculate the confidence of all performance parameters, compare the confidence of each performance parameter with the confidence threshold, and filter out the performance parameters whose confidence is greater than or equal to the confidence threshold to obtain a set of effective performance parameters.

9. The multi-parameter adaptive lifetime assessment system for single-photon detectors according to claim 8, characterized in that, The life assessment module further includes a weight correction unit, which is used to correct the original weight of each performance parameter in the life assessment based on the confidence level of each performance parameter in the effective performance parameter set; wherein, the confidence level is positively correlated with the corrected weight; the life assessment module obtains the final life prediction result based on the corrected weight, the working parameters at the third time node and the actual performance parameters.

10. A multi-parameter adaptive lifetime assessment method for a single-photon detector, applied to the multi-parameter adaptive lifetime assessment system for a single-photon detector as described in any one of claims 1-9, characterized in that, The method includes: S1: At the first time node, the second time node following the first time node, and the third time node following the second time node, the operating parameters and corresponding actual performance parameters of the single-photon detector are collected respectively. S2: Obtain a preset correlation model between working parameters and performance parameters; based on the working parameters and actual performance parameters at the first time point, predict the performance parameters at the second time point using the correlation model; based on the working parameters and actual performance parameters at the second time point, predict the performance parameters at the third time point using the correlation model. S3: Compare the actual performance parameters at the second time point with the predicted performance parameters at the second time point, calculate the influence weight of each performance parameter on the difference in the prediction, and determine at least one performance parameter whose influence weight meets the preset condition as the target performance parameter. S4: Based on the difference between the actual performance parameters at the third time point and the predicted performance parameters at the third time point, calculate the confidence level of the target performance parameters; S5: Based on the confidence level of the target performance parameters, the working parameters at the third time point, and the actual performance parameters, the final lifetime prediction result is obtained.

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