A distributed photovoltaic power intelligent prediction method and system

Abstract

The application relates to the technical field of distributed photovoltaic power prediction, in particular to a distributed photovoltaic power intelligent prediction method and system. N The two-dimensional plane coordinate points corresponding to the installation geographical positions of the distributed photovoltaics are recorded as the first position to the nth position. N The wind vector distribution function and the current irradiance distribution function are fitted; the actual active power of the first distributed photovoltaic to the nth distributed photovoltaic is obtained. N The spatial distribution of the actual active power is time-space deduced, and the predicted output active power of the first distributed photovoltaic to the nth distributed photovoltaic at the predicted time point is calculated. N The application comprehensively considers the wind speed, wind direction and other multi-dimensional data and the self-voltage regulation characteristics of the photovoltaic and other factors to realize the output power prediction of the distributed photovoltaic in the high-altitude and light-cloud area with rich sunshine.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of distributed photovoltaic power prediction technology, specifically a method and system for intelligent prediction of distributed photovoltaic power generation. Background Technology

[0002] In the field of distributed photovoltaic (PV) power generation, accurate prediction of PV power output is crucial for grid dispatch, energy management, and stable system operation. Existing technologies typically rely on historical power generation data, weather forecasts, or measured data from a single site, employing time series analysis, machine learning, or statistical methods for power prediction.

[0003] However, existing forecasting methods for distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems deployed in high-altitude, sunshine-rich areas face two pressing technical challenges: First, these areas often experience stable, lightly cumulus clouds, whose spatial distribution and rapid movement cause a rapid and uneven impact on irradiance. Existing forecasting methods largely rely on sparse meteorological data from individual sites, lacking the ability to accurately capture and extrapolate the spatiotemporal dynamics of irradiance caused by cloud shadow movement, making short-term, pre-emptive power forecasts for distributed PV parks difficult. Second, existing forecasting models generally neglect the impact of PV controller self-regulation on output characteristics. Specifically, increased solar irradiance leads to an increase in PV active power output, causing a rise in the grid connection voltage. Once the node voltage reaches its allowable limit, the PV inverter will automatically switch operating modes, such as adjusting the output power factor, resulting in a nonlinear change in its active power output characteristics. Existing forecasting methods do not incorporate the dynamic voltage regulation mechanism into the model, leading to significant deviations in power forecasts near the voltage critical point, failing to reflect the true PV output under grid operating constraints.

[0004] Therefore, in view of the shortcomings of existing technologies, there is an urgent need for an intelligent forecasting method that can integrate meteorological spatiotemporal extrapolation with the dynamic response characteristics of power grid interaction, so as to improve the accuracy of short-term forecasting of distributed photovoltaic power generation. Summary of the Invention

[0005] (1) Technical problems to be solved

[0006] The purpose of this invention is to provide a method and system for intelligent prediction of distributed photovoltaic power generation, so as to realize short-term power prediction in flat terrain distributed photovoltaic parks in high-altitude areas with abundant sunshine and stable cumulus cloud weather.

[0007] (2) Technical solution

[0008] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides a method for intelligent prediction of distributed photovoltaic power generation, the method comprising the following steps:

[0009] S1, based on the pre-set latitude and longitude data of the area to be predicted, map the area to be predicted into a two-dimensional plane coordinate system; number all distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems within the area to be predicted, denoted as the first distributed PV system to the next. N Distributed photovoltaic; obtaining the first distributed photovoltaic to the first N The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the geographical locations of distributed photovoltaic installations are denoted as the first location to the second location. N Location; from the first distributed photovoltaic to the first N The rated active power and rated apparent power of the distributed photovoltaic system are the same; the planar shape of the area to be predicted is rectangular.

[0010] S2, obtain wind speed and wind direction data measured by an anemometer evenly distributed in the area to be predicted, and fit the wind vector distribution function; obtain current irradiance data measured by a radiometer evenly distributed in the area to be predicted, and fit the current irradiance distribution function.

[0011] S3, obtain the first distributed photovoltaic to the... N The actual active power of distributed photovoltaic power is denoted as the first actual active power to the second. N Actual active power.

[0012] S4, based on the predicted wind vector distribution function of the area, the current irradiance distribution function, and the first actual active power to the second... N Actual active power, first position to the first N The location is used to perform spatiotemporal extrapolation of the spatial distribution of the actual active power, and the results are calculated to obtain the time points from the first distributed photovoltaic power station to the second distributed photovoltaic power station at the time to be predicted. N Predicted output active power of distributed photovoltaic power.

[0013] Furthermore, the method for obtaining wind speed and direction data uniformly distributed in the area to be predicted by an anemometer, fitting a wind vector distribution function, and obtaining current irradiance data uniformly distributed in the area to be predicted by a radiometer, fitting a current irradiance distribution function includes:

[0014] A spatial interpolation algorithm is used to fit the wind speed and direction data obtained from discrete anemometers uniformly distributed across the area to be predicted into a continuous wind vector distribution function covering the two-dimensional plane coordinate system; the wind vector distribution function includes a horizontal axis wind speed distribution function. and vertical axis wind speed distribution function The horizontal axis wind speed distribution function represents the component of the wind speed at each two-dimensional plane coordinate point in the horizontal direction of the two-dimensional plane coordinate system; the vertical axis wind speed distribution function represents the component of the wind speed at each two-dimensional plane coordinate point in the vertical direction of the two-dimensional plane coordinate system. This represents the x-coordinate value of a point in a two-dimensional plane. This represents the ordinate value of a point in a two-dimensional plane.

[0015] A spatial interpolation algorithm is used to fit the current irradiance data obtained from radiometer measurements, which are discretely and uniformly distributed across the area to be predicted, into a continuous current irradiance distribution function covering the two-dimensional plane coordinate system. .

[0016] Furthermore, the method based on the predicted wind vector distribution function of the area, the current irradiance distribution function, and the first actual active power to the second... N Actual active power, first position to the first N The location is used to perform spatiotemporal extrapolation of the spatial distribution of the actual active power, and the results are calculated to obtain the time points from the first distributed photovoltaic power station to the second distributed photovoltaic power station at the time to be predicted. N Methods for predicting the output active power of distributed photovoltaic systems include:

[0017] The predicted irradiance distribution function is calculated based on the wind vector distribution function and the current irradiance distribution function of the predicted area. .

[0018] Obtain the first distributed photovoltaic to the first N The actual output power factor of distributed photovoltaic (PV) power; from the first distributed PV to the second N In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, PV units whose actual output power factor falls between a pre-set lower and upper power factor limit are selected and marked as constant power factor operating PV units. The actual active power corresponding to the constant power factor operating PV units is obtained and denoted as the first active power fitting sequence. The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of the constant power factor operating PV units are obtained and substituted into the current irradiance distribution function. The current irradiance data corresponding to the installation geographical location of the photovoltaic system operating with constant power factor is calculated and denoted as the first current irradiance fitting sequence. The first current irradiance fitting sequence is used as the independent variable and the first active power fitting sequence is used as the dependent variable. The least squares fitting method is used to fit the linear correlation function of irradiance power.

[0019] First distributed photovoltaic to the first N In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, those whose actual output power factor falls outside the preset lower to upper power factor limits are selected and marked as variable power factor (VPF) PV systems. The actual active power corresponding to the VPF PV system is obtained and denoted as the second active power fitting sequence. The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of the VPF PV system are obtained and substituted into the current irradiance distribution function. The current irradiance data corresponding to the installation geographical location of the photovoltaic system operating with variable power factor is calculated and denoted as the second current irradiance fitting sequence. Using the second current irradiance fitting sequence as the independent variable and the second active power fitting sequence as the dependent variable, a nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power is obtained by fitting with a polynomial fitting method.

[0020] To move the first distributed photovoltaic to the second N Substituting the two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of distributed photovoltaics into the predicted irradiance distribution function yields the first predicted irradiance to the second. N Predicted irradiance; respectively, the first predicted irradiance to the second... N The predicted irradiance is obtained by inputting the irradiance power linear correlation function and outputting the first initial predicted active power up to the second. N Initial predicted active power.

[0021] Establish a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted, and adjust the first initial predicted active power to the second... N The initial predicted active power is substituted into the power grid simulation model of the area to be predicted for simulation calculation. Based on the simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the grid node bus voltage, the first to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation projects are selected. N In distributed photovoltaic systems, the predicted variable power factor (VPF) photovoltaic system is calculated based on a nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power to obtain the predicted active power of the VPF system, and the predicted active power is calculated from the first initial predicted active power to the second... N In the initial predicted active power, the predicted active power using the variable power factor is used to replace the initial predicted active power, and the final active power from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the second is obtained through iterative calculation. N Predicted output active power of distributed photovoltaic power.

[0022] Furthermore, the predicted irradiance distribution function is calculated based on the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area and the current irradiance distribution function. The methods include:

[0023] The predicted irradiance distribution function is obtained by calculating piecewise based on the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area and the current irradiance distribution function. The method for calculating the predicted irradiance distribution function is as follows:

[0024] according to x , y The value of divides the two-dimensional plane coordinate system into two regions, denoted as the first region and the second region, respectively; the first region is... and ;in , These represent the minimum and maximum x-coordinates of the two-dimensional plane coordinate points within the area to be predicted, obtained in advance. , These represent the minimum and maximum ordinate values ​​of the two-dimensional plane coordinate points within the area to be predicted, obtained in advance. This represents a pre-set time interval, i.e., the difference between the predicted time point and the current time point; The cloud movement ratio is a pre-set cloud movement ratio obtained through historical data statistics; the cloud movement ratio reflects the ratio of the movement speed of cumulus clouds to the wind speed when wind drives the movement of cumulus clouds; the second area is the remaining area after deducting the first area from the area to be predicted.

[0025] In the first area, The calculation formula is:

[0026] ;

[0027] In the second area, The value of is simplified to be the same as equal.

[0028] Furthermore, the establishment of a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted involves adjusting the first initial predicted active power to the second... N The initial predicted active power is substituted into the power grid simulation model of the area to be predicted for simulation calculation. Based on the simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the grid node bus voltage, the first to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation projects are selected. N In distributed photovoltaic systems, the predicted variable power factor (VPF) photovoltaic system is calculated based on a nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power to obtain the predicted active power of the VPF system, and the predicted active power is calculated from the first initial predicted active power to the second... N In the initial predicted active power, the predicted active power using the variable power factor is used to replace the initial predicted active power, and the final active power from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the second is obtained through iterative calculation. N Methods for predicting the output active power of distributed photovoltaic systems include:

[0029] Obtain the power grid topology data and line parameters of the area to be predicted, and establish a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted; in the power grid simulation calculation model of the area to be predicted, the first distributed photovoltaic power generation system to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation system will be integrated into the grid. N The active power of distributed photovoltaic systems is set as the first initial predicted active power to the second... N Initial predicted active power; [Transferring the first distributed photovoltaic power to the second...] N The power factor of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems is set as the average of the lower and upper power factor limits. Power flow simulation methods are used to calculate the power factors from the first distributed PV system to the [number missing]th [system / system / etc.]. N Simulated values ​​of the effective value of the bus voltage of the grid node connected to the distributed photovoltaic system.

[0030] First distributed photovoltaic to the firstN In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, those PV systems whose simulated effective values ​​of the bus voltage at connected grid nodes are not within the preset lower to upper voltage limits are marked as PV systems operating under predicted variable power factor (VPF) conditions. N The predicted irradiance corresponding to photovoltaic systems operating at the predicted variable power factor (VPF) is selected from the predicted irradiance and labeled as VPF predicted irradiance. These VPF predicted irradiances are then input into a nonlinear correlation function for irradiance power, and the output is the predicted active power at the VPF. From the first initial predicted active power to the... N In the initial predicted active power, the initial predicted active power corresponding to the photovoltaic system operating with the predicted variable power factor is replaced with the active power predicted with the variable power factor; the replaced active power is used as the active power of the current cycle, and the power factor of the photovoltaic system operating with the predicted variable power factor is set to a preset lag power factor value for voltage regulation to obtain the distributed photovoltaic power condition of the current cycle; the iterative steps are repeated until the iteration termination condition is met.

[0031] The iterative steps are as follows: re-execute the power flow simulation calculation to obtain the results from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the [missing information]. N Simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the bus voltage of the grid nodes connected to the distributed photovoltaic system; re-selected photovoltaic systems operating with predicted variable power factor and calculated the predicted active power of the variable power factor; updated the power conditions of the distributed photovoltaic system in the current cycle.

[0032] The iteration termination condition is: from the first distributed photovoltaic to the... N The simulated values ​​of the effective voltage of the grid node bus connected to the distributed photovoltaic system are all between the lower voltage limit and the upper voltage limit, or the number of iterations reaches the preset maximum number of iterations.

[0033] Based on the same inventive concept, this invention also provides a distributed photovoltaic power generation intelligent prediction system, the system comprising:

[0034] The data reading module is used to map the area to be predicted into a two-dimensional plane coordinate system based on the pre-set latitude and longitude data of the area to be predicted; and to number all distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems within the area to be predicted, designating them as the first distributed PV system to the next. N Distributed photovoltaic; obtaining the first distributed photovoltaic to the first N The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the geographical locations of distributed photovoltaic installations are denoted as the first location to the second location. N Location; from the first distributed photovoltaic to the first N The rated active power and rated apparent power of the distributed photovoltaic system are the same; the planar shape of the area to be predicted is rectangular.

[0035] The data fitting module, connected to the data reading module, is used to acquire wind speed and direction data measured by an anemometer evenly distributed in the area to be predicted, and to fit the wind vector distribution function. It also acquires the current irradiance data measured by a radiometer evenly distributed in the area to be predicted, and to fit the current irradiance distribution function.

[0036] The power reading module, connected to the data fitting module, is used to obtain power data from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation unit to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation unit. N The actual active power of distributed photovoltaic power is denoted as the first actual active power to the second. N Actual active power.

[0037] The power prediction module, connected to the power reading module, is used to predict the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area, the current irradiance distribution function, and the first actual active power up to the second... N Actual active power, first position to the first N The location is used to perform spatiotemporal extrapolation of the spatial distribution of the actual active power, and the results are calculated to obtain the time points from the first distributed photovoltaic power station to the second distributed photovoltaic power station at the time to be predicted. N Predicted output active power of distributed photovoltaic power.

[0038] Furthermore, the data fitting module includes:

[0039] The wind vector distribution function fitting module is used to fit the discrete wind speed and direction data obtained from anemometers uniformly distributed across the area to be predicted into a continuous wind vector distribution function covering the two-dimensional plane coordinate system using a spatial interpolation algorithm; the wind vector distribution function includes the horizontal axis wind speed distribution function. and vertical axis wind speed distribution function The horizontal axis wind speed distribution function represents the component of the wind speed at each two-dimensional plane coordinate point in the horizontal direction of the two-dimensional plane coordinate system; the vertical axis wind speed distribution function represents the component of the wind speed at each two-dimensional plane coordinate point in the vertical direction of the two-dimensional plane coordinate system. This represents the x-coordinate value of a point in a two-dimensional plane. This represents the ordinate value of a point in a two-dimensional plane.

[0040] The current irradiance distribution function fitting module, connected to the wind vector distribution function fitting module, is used to fit the discrete, uniformly distributed radiometer measurements of the area to be predicted into a continuous current irradiance distribution function covering the two-dimensional plane coordinate system using a spatial interpolation algorithm. .

[0041] Furthermore, the power prediction module includes:

[0042] The module for calculating the predicted irradiance distribution function is used to calculate the predicted irradiance distribution function based on the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area and the current irradiance distribution function. .

[0043] The irradiance power linear correlation function fitting module is connected to the predicted irradiance distribution function calculation module to obtain the first distributed photovoltaic power to the second... N The actual output power factor of distributed photovoltaic (PV) power; from the first distributed PV to the second N In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, PV units whose actual output power factor falls between a pre-set lower and upper power factor limit are selected and marked as constant power factor operating PV units. The actual active power corresponding to the constant power factor operating PV units is obtained and denoted as the first active power fitting sequence. The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of the constant power factor operating PV units are obtained and substituted into the current irradiance distribution function. The current irradiance data corresponding to the installation geographical location of the photovoltaic system operating with constant power factor is calculated and denoted as the first current irradiance fitting sequence. The first current irradiance fitting sequence is used as the independent variable and the first active power fitting sequence is used as the dependent variable. The least squares fitting method is used to fit the linear correlation function of irradiance power.

[0044] The irradiance power nonlinear correlation function fitting module, connected to the irradiance power linear correlation function fitting module, is used to fit the first distributed photovoltaic power to the second... N In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, those whose actual output power factor falls outside the preset lower to upper power factor limits are selected and marked as variable power factor (VPF) PV systems. The actual active power corresponding to the VPF PV system is obtained and denoted as the second active power fitting sequence. The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of the VPF PV system are obtained and substituted into the current irradiance distribution function. The current irradiance data corresponding to the installation geographical location of the photovoltaic system operating with variable power factor is calculated and denoted as the second current irradiance fitting sequence. Using the second current irradiance fitting sequence as the independent variable and the second active power fitting sequence as the dependent variable, a nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power is obtained by fitting with a polynomial fitting method.

[0045] The initial predicted active power calculation module is connected to the irradiance power nonlinear correlation function fitting module, and is used to convert the first distributed photovoltaic power to the second... N Substituting the two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of distributed photovoltaics into the predicted irradiance distribution function yields the first predicted irradiance to the second. N Predicted irradiance; respectively, the first predicted irradiance to the second... NThe predicted irradiance is obtained by inputting the irradiance power linear correlation function and outputting the first initial predicted active power up to the second. N Initial predicted active power.

[0046] The iterative calculation module, connected to the initial predicted active power calculation module, is used to establish a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted, and to calculate the first initial predicted active power to the second... N The initial predicted active power is substituted into the power grid simulation model of the area to be predicted for simulation calculation. Based on the simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the grid node bus voltage, the first to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation projects are selected. N In distributed photovoltaic systems, the predicted variable power factor (VPF) photovoltaic system is calculated based on a nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power to obtain the predicted active power of the VPF system, and the predicted active power is calculated from the first initial predicted active power to the second... N In the initial predicted active power, the predicted active power using the variable power factor is used to replace the initial predicted active power, and the final active power from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the second is obtained through iterative calculation. N Predicted output active power of distributed photovoltaic power.

[0047] Furthermore, the predicted irradiance distribution function calculation module includes:

[0048] The segmented calculation module is used to calculate the predicted irradiance distribution function in segments based on the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area and the current irradiance distribution function. The method for calculating the predicted irradiance distribution function is as follows:

[0049] according to x , y The value of divides the two-dimensional plane coordinate system into two regions, denoted as the first region and the second region, respectively; the first region is... and ;in , These represent the minimum and maximum x-coordinates of the two-dimensional plane coordinate points within the area to be predicted, obtained in advance. , These represent the minimum and maximum ordinate values ​​of the two-dimensional plane coordinate points within the area to be predicted, obtained in advance. This represents a pre-set time interval, i.e., the difference between the predicted time point and the current time point; The cloud movement ratio is a pre-set cloud movement ratio obtained through historical data statistics; the cloud movement ratio reflects the ratio of the movement speed of cumulus clouds to the wind speed when wind drives the movement of cumulus clouds; the second area is the remaining area after deducting the first area from the area to be predicted.

[0050] In the first area, The calculation formula is:

[0051] ;

[0052] In the second area, The value of is simplified to be the same as equal.

[0053] Furthermore, the iterative calculation module includes:

[0054] The initial simulation module is used to acquire the power grid topology data and line parameters of the area to be predicted, and to establish a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted. In the power grid simulation calculation model of the area to be predicted, the first distributed photovoltaic system to the second... N The active power of distributed photovoltaic systems is set as the first initial predicted active power to the second... N Initial predicted active power; [Transferring the first distributed photovoltaic power to the second...] N The power factor of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems is set as the average of the lower and upper power factor limits. Power flow simulation methods are used to calculate the power factors from the first distributed PV system to the [number missing]th [system / system / etc.]. N Simulated values ​​of the effective value of the bus voltage of the grid node connected to the distributed photovoltaic system.

[0055] The iterative simulation module, connected to the initial simulation module, is used to simulate the first distributed photovoltaic system to the second... N In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, those PV systems whose simulated effective values ​​of the bus voltage at connected grid nodes are not within the preset lower to upper voltage limits are marked as PV systems operating under predicted variable power factor (VPF) conditions. N The predicted irradiance corresponding to photovoltaic systems operating at the predicted variable power factor (VPF) is selected from the predicted irradiance and labeled as VPF predicted irradiance. These VPF predicted irradiances are then input into a nonlinear correlation function for irradiance power, and the output is the predicted active power at the VPF. From the first initial predicted active power to the... N In the initial predicted active power, the initial predicted active power corresponding to the photovoltaic system operating with the predicted variable power factor is replaced with the active power predicted with the variable power factor; the replaced active power is used as the active power of the current cycle, and the power factor of the photovoltaic system operating with the predicted variable power factor is set to a preset lag power factor value for voltage regulation to obtain the distributed photovoltaic power condition of the current cycle; the iterative steps are repeated until the iteration termination condition is met.

[0056] The iterative steps are as follows: re-execute the power flow simulation calculation to obtain the results from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the [missing information]. N Simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the bus voltage of the grid nodes connected to the distributed photovoltaic system; re-selected photovoltaic systems operating with predicted variable power factor and calculated the predicted active power of the variable power factor; updated the power conditions of the distributed photovoltaic system in the current cycle.

[0057] The iteration termination condition is: from the first distributed photovoltaic to the... N The simulated values ​​of the effective voltage of the grid node bus connected to the distributed photovoltaic system are all between the lower voltage limit and the upper voltage limit, or the number of iterations reaches the preset maximum number of iterations.

[0058] (3) Beneficial effects

[0059] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0060] 1. Based on the measured data of anemometers and irradiance meters evenly distributed in the area, a spatial interpolation algorithm is used to fit the spatial distribution function of wind vector and irradiance. Based on the wind field, the irradiance distribution is spatiotemporally extrapolated, thereby accurately capturing the dynamic changes in irradiance caused by the movement of cumulus clouds and realizing high-precision advance prediction of short-term power of distributed photovoltaic power in high-altitude areas.

[0061] 2. By establishing a power grid simulation model, the initial power prediction results are substituted into the power flow calculation to identify photovoltaics that need to switch operating modes due to voltage over-limit. The active power is then iteratively corrected using a nonlinear correlation function, thereby accurately reflecting the impact of inverter autonomous adjustment on output and improving the accuracy of power prediction near the voltage critical point. Attached Figure Description

[0062] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a distributed photovoltaic power generation intelligent prediction method according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

[0063] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the module composition of a distributed photovoltaic power generation intelligent prediction system according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0064] The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0065] Before providing examples, it is necessary to describe the application scenario of this invention. This invention is applied to short-term power prediction in distributed photovoltaic parks located in flat terrain at high altitudes with abundant sunshine and stable cumulus cloud formations. The photovoltaic equipment in the distributed photovoltaic park uses the same model, with identical rated active power and rated apparent power, and all are equipped with voltage regulation functions.

[0066] Example 1: As Figure 1As shown in the figure, this embodiment provides a method for intelligent prediction of distributed photovoltaic power generation, the method including the following steps:

[0067] S1, based on the pre-set latitude and longitude data of the area to be predicted, map the area to be predicted into a two-dimensional plane coordinate system; number all distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems within the area to be predicted, denoted as the first distributed PV system to the next. N Distributed photovoltaic; obtaining the first distributed photovoltaic to the first N The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the geographical locations of distributed photovoltaic installations are denoted as the first location to the second location. N Location; from the first distributed photovoltaic to the first N The rated active power and rated apparent power of the distributed photovoltaic system are the same; the planar shape of the area to be predicted is rectangular.

[0068] S2, obtain wind speed and wind direction data measured by an anemometer evenly distributed in the area to be predicted, and fit the wind vector distribution function; obtain current irradiance data measured by a radiometer evenly distributed in the area to be predicted, and fit the current irradiance distribution function.

[0069] S3, obtain the first distributed photovoltaic to the... N The actual active power of distributed photovoltaic power is denoted as the first actual active power to the second. N Actual active power.

[0070] S4, based on the predicted wind vector distribution function of the area, the current irradiance distribution function, and the first actual active power to the second... N Actual active power, first position to the first N The location is used to perform spatiotemporal extrapolation of the spatial distribution of the actual active power, and the results are calculated to obtain the time points from the first distributed photovoltaic power station to the second distributed photovoltaic power station at the time to be predicted. N Predicted output active power of distributed photovoltaic power.

[0071] For example, based on the pre-defined latitude and longitude data of the area to be predicted, a map projection transformation method is used to map the area to be predicted into a two-dimensional Cartesian coordinate system. The planar shape of the area to be predicted is rectangular to simplify coordinate mapping and subsequent calculations. If the actual planar shape of the distributed photovoltaic park is not a regular rectangle, the area to be predicted is obtained by expanding the area around the distributed photovoltaic park, so that the planar shape of the area to be predicted is rectangular. All distributed photovoltaic units within the area to be predicted are uniformly numbered, denoted as the first distributed photovoltaic unit to the next. N Distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems. Obtain the coordinates of each distributed PV installation location in the constructed two-dimensional coordinate system, denoted as the first location to the second. NLocation. Since the areas to be predicted belong to the same park management organization, in order to obtain the cost advantage of bulk purchasing, the first to the second... N Distributed photovoltaic systems use the same model, with identical rated active power and rated apparent power.

[0072] Real-time wind speed and direction data, measured by multiple anemometers uniformly distributed within the area to be predicted, and current irradiance data, measured by multiple radiometers, are acquired. Using the monitoring data collected by the spatially discrete anemometers and radiometers, a spatial interpolation algorithm is employed for fitting, resulting in a continuous spatial distribution function covering the entire two-dimensional coordinate system. Specifically, the discrete wind speed and direction data are fitted into a continuous wind vector distribution function, which describes the wind vector at any coordinate point in the area; the discrete irradiance data are fitted into a continuous current irradiance distribution function, which describes the light intensity at any coordinate point in the area.

[0073] The photovoltaic power generation monitoring system obtains real-time data from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation system to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation system. N The actual active power output of distributed photovoltaic power at the current moment is denoted as the first actual active power up to the second. N Actual active power. The first actual active power to the second... N Actual active power reflects the real power generation capacity of each distributed photovoltaic system under current meteorological and grid conditions.

[0074] Using the wind vector distribution function as the dynamic factor for extrapolating the spatial movement of meteorological conditions (especially cloud shadows), spatiotemporal extrapolation is performed on the current irradiance distribution and actual active power distribution. This simulation calculates the impact of the spatial evolution of meteorological conditions at a future, predicted time point, on the first distributed photovoltaic power generation system to the second... N The new meteorological environment and power grid operation status that each distributed photovoltaic (PV) unit will face at its installation location are then used to calculate the predicted active power output of each PV unit at that future time point (i.e., the time point to be predicted).

[0075] Furthermore, the method for obtaining wind speed and direction data uniformly distributed in the area to be predicted by an anemometer, fitting a wind vector distribution function, and obtaining current irradiance data uniformly distributed in the area to be predicted by a radiometer, fitting a current irradiance distribution function includes:

[0076] A spatial interpolation algorithm is used to fit the wind speed and direction data obtained from discrete anemometers uniformly distributed across the area to be predicted into a continuous wind vector distribution function covering the two-dimensional plane coordinate system; the wind vector distribution function includes a horizontal axis wind speed distribution function. and vertical axis wind speed distribution function The horizontal axis wind speed distribution function represents the component of the wind speed at each two-dimensional plane coordinate point in the horizontal direction of the two-dimensional plane coordinate system; the vertical axis wind speed distribution function represents the component of the wind speed at each two-dimensional plane coordinate point in the vertical direction of the two-dimensional plane coordinate system. This represents the x-coordinate value of a point in a two-dimensional plane. This represents the ordinate value of a point in a two-dimensional plane.

[0077] A spatial interpolation algorithm is used to fit the current irradiance data obtained from radiometer measurements, which are discretely and uniformly distributed across the area to be predicted, into a continuous current irradiance distribution function covering the two-dimensional plane coordinate system. .

[0078] For example, the data measured by anemometers is processed using a spatial interpolation algorithm. This algorithm, based on discrete wind speed and direction data collected by multiple anemometers distributed throughout the area to be predicted, uses mathematical methods to estimate the wind vector at any point in a two-dimensional coordinate system where no anemometer is located, thereby fitting and generating a continuous wind vector distribution function. Specifically, the wind vector distribution function consists of two component functions: one is a horizontal axis wind speed distribution function, used to describe the magnitude of the wind speed component at any coordinate point along the horizontal axis of the coordinate system; the other is a vertical axis wind speed distribution function, used to describe the magnitude of the wind speed component at any coordinate point along the vertical axis. These two mutually perpendicular component functions can comprehensively characterize the spatial distribution and directional features of the wind field throughout the entire area.

[0079] The data measured by radiometers is also processed using a spatial interpolation algorithm. This algorithm, based on discrete current irradiance data collected by multiple radiometers uniformly distributed within the area to be predicted, estimates the irradiance value at any coordinate point within the area through interpolation and extrapolation, thereby fitting and generating a continuous current irradiance distribution function. This function can accurately reflect the spatial non-uniformity of light intensity within the area caused by factors such as cloud cover.

[0080] Furthermore, the method based on the predicted wind vector distribution function of the area, the current irradiance distribution function, and the first actual active power to the second... N Actual active power, first position to the first N The location is used to perform spatiotemporal extrapolation of the spatial distribution of the actual active power, and the results are calculated to obtain the time points from the first distributed photovoltaic power station to the second distributed photovoltaic power station at the time to be predicted. N Methods for predicting the output active power of distributed photovoltaic systems include:

[0081] The predicted irradiance distribution function is calculated based on the wind vector distribution function and the current irradiance distribution function of the predicted area. .

[0082] Obtain the first distributed photovoltaic to the firstN The actual output power factor of distributed photovoltaic (PV) power; from the first distributed PV to the second N In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, PV units whose actual output power factor falls between a pre-set lower and upper power factor limit are selected and marked as constant power factor operating PV units. The actual active power corresponding to the constant power factor operating PV units is obtained and denoted as the first active power fitting sequence. The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of the constant power factor operating PV units are obtained and substituted into the current irradiance distribution function. The current irradiance data corresponding to the installation geographical location of the photovoltaic system operating with constant power factor is calculated and denoted as the first current irradiance fitting sequence. The first current irradiance fitting sequence is used as the independent variable and the first active power fitting sequence is used as the dependent variable. The least squares fitting method is used to fit the linear correlation function of irradiance power.

[0083] First distributed photovoltaic to the first N In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, those whose actual output power factor falls outside the preset lower to upper power factor limits are selected and marked as variable power factor (VPF) PV systems. The actual active power corresponding to the VPF PV system is obtained and denoted as the second active power fitting sequence. The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of the VPF PV system are obtained and substituted into the current irradiance distribution function. The current irradiance data corresponding to the installation geographical location of the photovoltaic system operating with variable power factor is calculated and denoted as the second current irradiance fitting sequence. Using the second current irradiance fitting sequence as the independent variable and the second active power fitting sequence as the dependent variable, a nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power is obtained by fitting with a polynomial fitting method.

[0084] To move the first distributed photovoltaic to the second N Substituting the two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of distributed photovoltaics into the predicted irradiance distribution function yields the first predicted irradiance to the second. N Predicted irradiance; respectively, the first predicted irradiance to the second... N The predicted irradiance is obtained by inputting the irradiance power linear correlation function and outputting the first initial predicted active power up to the second. N Initial predicted active power.

[0085] Establish a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted, and adjust the first initial predicted active power to the second... N The initial predicted active power is substituted into the power grid simulation model of the area to be predicted for simulation calculation. Based on the simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the grid node bus voltage, the first to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation projects are selected. NIn distributed photovoltaic systems, the predicted variable power factor (VPF) photovoltaic system is calculated based on a nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power to obtain the predicted active power of the VPF system, and the predicted active power is calculated from the first initial predicted active power to the second... N In the initial predicted active power, the predicted active power using the variable power factor is used to replace the initial predicted active power, and the final active power from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the second is obtained through iterative calculation. N Predicted output active power of distributed photovoltaic power.

[0086] For example, based on the wind vector distribution function and the current irradiance distribution function, a predicted irradiance distribution function for future time points is calculated. The core of this method lies in using the physical laws governing wind-driven cloud movement to extrapolate future spatial variations in irradiance distribution.

[0087] Based on the actual operating characteristics of photovoltaic inverters, they are divided into two operating modes and modeled differently. Specifically, the actual output power factor of all distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems is obtained, and PV systems with actual power factors within a preset normal operating range (i.e., between the lower and upper power factor limits) are marked as constant power factor operating PV systems. The lower power factor limit is set to 0.88 (leading), and the upper power factor limit is set to 0.90 (leading). When the actual power factor is between the lower and upper power factor limits, the distributed PV system outputs both active and reactive power. In this operating mode, the power factor of the distributed PV system is theoretically a constant value, but considering the possible errors in actual operation, a lower and upper power factor limit are set to include potential errors. The current actual active power of these PV systems and the current irradiance data corresponding to their installation locations are collected to form a first active power fitting sequence and a first current irradiance fitting sequence, respectively. Subsequently, using the least squares fitting method, with irradiance as the independent variable and active power as the dependent variable, a linear correlation function of irradiance power describing the relationship between the two was established. This function reflects the basic linear relationship between photovoltaic output and irradiance intensity under normal operating conditions.

[0088] Photovoltaics with actual power factors deviating from the normal operating range are labeled as variable power factor photovoltaics. This indicates that they may be in a special voltage regulation mode due to local voltage exceeding limits. Similarly, data from these photovoltaics are collected to form a second active power fitting sequence and a second current irradiance fitting sequence. Due to the complex power output characteristics under this operating mode, a polynomial fitting method, which can better fit nonlinear relationships, is used to establish a nonlinear correlation function for irradiance power.

[0089] Then, initial power prediction is performed. The installation location coordinates of each distributed photovoltaic unit are substituted into the predicted irradiance distribution function to obtain its corresponding future predicted irradiance. All predicted irradiance values ​​are then input into the aforementioned irradiance power linear correlation function to obtain the first initial predicted active power up to the [previous prediction]. N Initial prediction of active power. This step assumes that all photovoltaic systems are operating in a constant power factor mode at the prediction time.

[0090] Finally, grid simulation is introduced for iterative correction. A grid simulation model of the area to be predicted is established, and the initial predicted active power set is substituted into the model as load conditions for power flow calculation. By analyzing the bus voltage of each photovoltaic access point obtained from the simulation, it is possible to screen out which photovoltaics would cause voltage overruns under the initial predicted power. These photovoltaics are marked as photovoltaics operating under predicted variable power factor. For these photovoltaics, the nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power is used to recalculate their active power (i.e., variable power factor predicted active power) based on their predicted irradiance, and the original initial prediction value is replaced. Subsequently, with the updated power set and adjusted power factor settings, the power flow calculation is re-performed. This process is iterated until the voltage of all nodes recovers to the allowable range or the maximum number of iterations is reached, thus obtaining the final convergent predicted output active power that better conforms to the actual operating constraints of the grid.

[0091] Furthermore, the predicted irradiance distribution function is calculated based on the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area and the current irradiance distribution function. The methods include:

[0092] The predicted irradiance distribution function is obtained by calculating piecewise based on the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area and the current irradiance distribution function. The method for calculating the predicted irradiance distribution function is as follows:

[0093] according to x , y The value of divides the two-dimensional plane coordinate system into two regions, denoted as the first region and the second region, respectively; the first region is... and ;in , These represent the minimum and maximum x-coordinates of the two-dimensional plane coordinate points within the area to be predicted, obtained in advance. , These represent the minimum and maximum ordinate values ​​of the two-dimensional plane coordinate points within the area to be predicted, obtained in advance. This represents a pre-set time interval, i.e., the difference between the predicted time point and the current time point; The cloud movement ratio is a pre-set cloud movement ratio obtained through historical data statistics; the cloud movement ratio reflects the ratio of the movement speed of cumulus clouds to the wind speed when wind drives the movement of cumulus clouds; the second area is the remaining area after deducting the first area from the area to be predicted.

[0094] In the first area, The calculation formula is:

[0095] ;

[0096] In the second area, The value of is simplified to be the same as equal.

[0097] For example, based on the wind vector distribution function and a preset time interval, the two-dimensional plane coordinate system is dynamically divided into two regions with different computational logic: a first region and a second region. This partitioning approach balances computational accuracy and efficiency.

[0098] The first region refers to the set of coordinate points that meet specific conditions. These conditions ensure that, driven by wind vectors, the predicted source of clouds (or meteorological disturbances) remains within the rectangular boundary of the region to be predicted after a time interval. Specifically, for a given coordinate point, an "upstream" location can be calculated backwards based on the wind vector components at that point and the prediction time interval. If this upstream location does not exceed the geographical range of the region (i.e., its x and y coordinates are between the minimum and maximum values ​​of the region's coordinates, respectively), then the point is assigned to the first region. Within this region, the calculation of the predicted irradiance distribution function has a clear physical meaning: it assumes that the irradiance at a certain upstream location at the current moment will be "advected" to the currently predicted target location after a time interval, driven by the wind field. Therefore, the predicted irradiance value at that point can be calculated by substituting the coordinates of the upstream location into the current irradiance distribution function. To more accurately describe the relationship between cloud movement and wind field, an empirical cloud movement ratio coefficient was introduced into the calculation. This coefficient was obtained by analyzing historical meteorological data and is used to characterize the proportional relationship between the movement speed of cumulus clouds and the ground wind speed in the actual environment.

[0099] The second region refers to the area remaining after subtracting the first region from the region to be predicted, typically located at the edge or downwind boundary of the region. In this region, for a given coordinate point, the "upstream" location calculated using the above method is outside the region, and effective data cannot be obtained from the current irradiance distribution function. Therefore, as a simplified and reasonable approximation, the value of the predicted irradiance distribution function in this region is set to be equal to the value of the current irradiance distribution function at that point. This essentially assumes that for these locations, within a shorter prediction timescale, their irradiance conditions remain unchanged or, due to the lack of upstream data, the current value is used. This approach simplifies the handling of boundary problems while ensuring the prediction accuracy of the core region, enhancing the engineering practicality of the method. It is worth noting that, to ensure sufficiently high accuracy in the calculation, , It should be less than the preset movement threshold.

[0100] Furthermore, the establishment of a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted involves adjusting the first initial predicted active power to the second... N The initial predicted active power is substituted into the power grid simulation model of the area to be predicted for simulation calculation. Based on the simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the grid node bus voltage, the first to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation projects are selected. N In distributed photovoltaic systems, the predicted variable power factor (VPF) photovoltaic system is calculated based on a nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power to obtain the predicted active power of the VPF system, and the predicted active power is calculated from the first initial predicted active power to the second... N In the initial predicted active power, the predicted active power using the variable power factor is used to replace the initial predicted active power, and the final active power from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the second is obtained through iterative calculation. N Methods for predicting the output active power of distributed photovoltaic systems include:

[0101] Obtain the power grid topology data and line parameters of the area to be predicted, and establish a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted; in the power grid simulation calculation model of the area to be predicted, the first distributed photovoltaic power generation system to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation system will be integrated into the grid. N The active power of distributed photovoltaic systems is set as the first initial predicted active power to the second... N Initial predicted active power; [Transferring the first distributed photovoltaic power to the second...] N The power factor of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems is set as the average of the lower and upper power factor limits. Power flow simulation methods are used to calculate the power factors from the first distributed PV system to the [number missing]th [system / system / etc.]. N Simulated values ​​of the effective value of the bus voltage of the grid node connected to the distributed photovoltaic system.

[0102] First distributed photovoltaic to the first NIn distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, those PV systems whose simulated effective values ​​of the bus voltage at connected grid nodes are not within the preset lower to upper voltage limits are marked as PV systems operating under predicted variable power factor (VPF) conditions. N The predicted irradiance corresponding to photovoltaic systems operating at the predicted variable power factor (VPF) is selected from the predicted irradiance and labeled as VPF predicted irradiance. These VPF predicted irradiances are then input into a nonlinear correlation function for irradiance power, and the output is the predicted active power at the VPF. From the first initial predicted active power to the... N In the initial predicted active power, the initial predicted active power corresponding to the photovoltaic system operating with the predicted variable power factor is replaced with the active power predicted with the variable power factor; the replaced active power is used as the active power of the current cycle, and the power factor of the photovoltaic system operating with the predicted variable power factor is set to a preset lag power factor value for voltage regulation to obtain the distributed photovoltaic power condition of the current cycle; the iterative steps are repeated until the iteration termination condition is met.

[0103] The iterative steps are as follows: re-execute the power flow simulation calculation to obtain the results from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the [missing information]. N Simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the bus voltage of the grid nodes connected to the distributed photovoltaic system; re-selected photovoltaic systems operating with predicted variable power factor and calculated the predicted active power of the variable power factor; updated the power conditions of the distributed photovoltaic system in the current cycle.

[0104] The iteration termination condition is: from the first distributed photovoltaic to the... N The simulated values ​​of the effective voltage of the grid node bus connected to the distributed photovoltaic system are all between the lower voltage limit and the upper voltage limit, or the number of iterations reaches the preset maximum number of iterations.

[0105] For example, firstly, a power grid simulation model for the area to be predicted is established. Specifically, key data such as the power grid topology, line impedance parameters, and transformer turns ratio of the area to be predicted need to be obtained to establish a power grid simulation model that accurately reflects the electrical characteristics of the region. In the initial simulation model, all distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems (from the first to the second generation) are included. N The active power of distributed photovoltaic (PV) is set to the first initial predicted active power up to the [missing value]. N Initial predicted active power. Simultaneously, a uniform initial power factor is set for all photovoltaic (PV) systems. This value is typically the average of the lower and upper power factor limits, for example, 0.89 (leading), to simulate a common initial grid-connected state. Based on this, power flow simulation methods are used to solve for the steady-state operating conditions of the entire grid, thereby obtaining simulated values ​​of the effective voltage of the grid node bus connected to each distributed PV system.

[0106] Then, the simulated bus voltage values ​​for each node are compared with the pre-set lower and upper voltage limits according to grid safety operation standards. Distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems with simulated bus voltage values ​​exceeding the limits (i.e., below the lower voltage limit or above the upper voltage limit) are selected and marked as "predicted variable power factor (VPF) operating PV" for this round. These PV systems are considered to trigger the inverter's control logic and switch operating modes due to voltage issues at the predicted time point. Next, from the first predicted irradiance to the... N In the predicted irradiance, the future irradiance values ​​corresponding to these "predicted variable power factor (VPF) photovoltaic systems" are identified and labeled as "variable power factor (VPF) predicted irradiance." These irradiance values ​​are input into the previously established nonlinear correlation function for irradiance power to calculate the "variable power factor predicted active power," which should have been output without considering voltage constraints but is actually limited due to changes in its operating mode. Then, iterative updates are performed. From the first initial predicted active power to the... N In the initial set of predicted active power, the initial predicted values ​​of the corresponding photovoltaic (PV) units are replaced with the calculated "variable power factor predicted active power". This updated set of active power constitutes the new boundary conditions for the current simulation round. Simultaneously, to more realistically simulate the supporting effect of these PV units on grid voltage in subsequent simulations, the power factor of these "predicted variable power factor operating PV units" is set to a preset lag power factor value (e.g., 0.90 lag) for voltage regulation, enabling them to generate reactive power to help raise the local voltage. The above steps constitute a complete iterative step. This iterative step is repeated: that is, the power flow simulation is recalculated using the updated distributed PV power conditions (active power and the power factor of some PV units), new bus voltage simulation values ​​are obtained, and the predicted variable power factor operating PV units are screened again, the new variable power factor predicted active power is calculated, and the power settings are updated.

[0107] This iterative process continues until a preset iteration termination condition is met. The termination condition includes two scenarios: one is the ideal scenario, where after several iterations, the first to the second iterations... N The simulated effective values ​​of the voltages of all buses connected to the distributed photovoltaic system are restored to a safe range between the lower and upper voltage limits; secondly, a maximum number of iterations (e.g., 50 times) is set as a safety guarantee to prevent infinite loops due to computational oscillations or non-convergence. The iteration stops when any condition is met, and the resulting active power set is the final set, considering both meteorological changes and grid voltage safety constraints, representing the first to the second distributed photovoltaic system. N Predicted output active power of distributed photovoltaic power.

[0108] Example 2: Based on the same inventive concept, such as Figure 2As shown in the figure, this embodiment also provides a distributed photovoltaic power generation intelligent prediction system, the system comprising:

[0109] The data reading module is used to map the area to be predicted into a two-dimensional plane coordinate system based on the pre-set latitude and longitude data of the area to be predicted; and to number all distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems within the area to be predicted, designating them as the first distributed PV system to the next. N Distributed photovoltaic; obtaining the first distributed photovoltaic to the first N The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the geographical locations of distributed photovoltaic installations are denoted as the first location to the second location. N Location; from the first distributed photovoltaic to the first N The rated active power and rated apparent power of the distributed photovoltaic system are the same; the planar shape of the area to be predicted is rectangular.

[0110] The data fitting module, connected to the data reading module, is used to acquire wind speed and direction data measured by an anemometer evenly distributed in the area to be predicted, and to fit the wind vector distribution function. It also acquires the current irradiance data measured by a radiometer evenly distributed in the area to be predicted, and to fit the current irradiance distribution function.

[0111] The power reading module, connected to the data fitting module, is used to obtain power data from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation unit to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation unit. N The actual active power of distributed photovoltaic power is denoted as the first actual active power to the second. N Actual active power.

[0112] The power prediction module, connected to the power reading module, is used to predict the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area, the current irradiance distribution function, and the first actual active power up to the second... N Actual active power, first position to the first N The location is used to perform spatiotemporal extrapolation of the spatial distribution of the actual active power, and the results are calculated to obtain the time points from the first distributed photovoltaic power station to the second distributed photovoltaic power station at the time to be predicted. N Predicted output active power of distributed photovoltaic power.

[0113] Furthermore, the data fitting module includes:

[0114] The wind vector distribution function fitting module is used to fit the discrete wind speed and direction data obtained from anemometers uniformly distributed across the area to be predicted into a continuous wind vector distribution function covering the two-dimensional plane coordinate system using a spatial interpolation algorithm; the wind vector distribution function includes the horizontal axis wind speed distribution function. and vertical axis wind speed distribution function The horizontal axis wind speed distribution function represents the component of the wind speed at each two-dimensional plane coordinate point in the horizontal direction of the two-dimensional plane coordinate system; the vertical axis wind speed distribution function represents the component of the wind speed at each two-dimensional plane coordinate point in the vertical direction of the two-dimensional plane coordinate system. This represents the x-coordinate value of a point in a two-dimensional plane. This represents the ordinate value of a point in a two-dimensional plane.

[0115] The current irradiance distribution function fitting module, connected to the wind vector distribution function fitting module, is used to fit the discrete, uniformly distributed radiometer measurements of the area to be predicted into a continuous current irradiance distribution function covering the two-dimensional plane coordinate system using a spatial interpolation algorithm. .

[0116] Furthermore, the power prediction module includes:

[0117] The module for calculating the predicted irradiance distribution function is used to calculate the predicted irradiance distribution function based on the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area and the current irradiance distribution function. .

[0118] The irradiance power linear correlation function fitting module is connected to the predicted irradiance distribution function calculation module to obtain the first distributed photovoltaic power to the second... N The actual output power factor of distributed photovoltaic (PV) power; from the first distributed PV to the second N In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, PV units whose actual output power factor falls between a pre-set lower and upper power factor limit are selected and marked as constant power factor operating PV units. The actual active power corresponding to the constant power factor operating PV units is obtained and denoted as the first active power fitting sequence. The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of the constant power factor operating PV units are obtained and substituted into the current irradiance distribution function. The current irradiance data corresponding to the installation geographical location of the photovoltaic system operating with constant power factor is calculated and denoted as the first current irradiance fitting sequence. The first current irradiance fitting sequence is used as the independent variable and the first active power fitting sequence is used as the dependent variable. The least squares fitting method is used to fit the linear correlation function of irradiance power.

[0119] The irradiance power nonlinear correlation function fitting module, connected to the irradiance power linear correlation function fitting module, is used to fit the first distributed photovoltaic power to the second... NIn distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, those whose actual output power factor falls outside the preset lower to upper power factor limits are selected and marked as variable power factor (VPF) PV systems. The actual active power corresponding to the VPF PV system is obtained and denoted as the second active power fitting sequence. The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of the VPF PV system are obtained and substituted into the current irradiance distribution function. The current irradiance data corresponding to the installation geographical location of the photovoltaic system operating with variable power factor is calculated and denoted as the second current irradiance fitting sequence. Using the second current irradiance fitting sequence as the independent variable and the second active power fitting sequence as the dependent variable, a nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power is obtained by fitting with a polynomial fitting method.

[0120] The initial predicted active power calculation module is connected to the irradiance power nonlinear correlation function fitting module, and is used to convert the first distributed photovoltaic power to the second... N Substituting the two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of distributed photovoltaics into the predicted irradiance distribution function yields the first predicted irradiance to the second. N Predicted irradiance; respectively, the first predicted irradiance to the second... N The predicted irradiance is obtained by inputting the irradiance power linear correlation function and outputting the first initial predicted active power up to the second. N Initial predicted active power.

[0121] The iterative calculation module, connected to the initial predicted active power calculation module, is used to establish a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted, and to calculate the first initial predicted active power to the second... N The initial predicted active power is substituted into the power grid simulation model of the area to be predicted for simulation calculation. Based on the simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the grid node bus voltage, the first to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation projects are selected. N In distributed photovoltaic systems, the predicted variable power factor (VPF) photovoltaic system is calculated based on a nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power to obtain the predicted active power of the VPF system, and the predicted active power is calculated from the first initial predicted active power to the second... N In the initial predicted active power, the predicted active power using the variable power factor is used to replace the initial predicted active power, and the final active power from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the second is obtained through iterative calculation. N Predicted output active power of distributed photovoltaic power.

[0122] Furthermore, the predicted irradiance distribution function calculation module includes:

[0123] The segmented calculation module is used to calculate the predicted irradiance distribution function in segments based on the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area and the current irradiance distribution function. The method for calculating the predicted irradiance distribution function is as follows:

[0124] according to x , y The value of divides the two-dimensional plane coordinate system into two regions, denoted as the first region and the second region, respectively; the first region is... and ;in , These represent the minimum and maximum x-coordinates of the two-dimensional plane coordinate points within the area to be predicted, obtained in advance. , These represent the minimum and maximum ordinate values ​​of the two-dimensional plane coordinate points within the area to be predicted, obtained in advance. This represents a pre-set time interval, i.e., the difference between the predicted time point and the current time point; The cloud movement ratio is a pre-set cloud movement ratio obtained through historical data statistics; the cloud movement ratio reflects the ratio of the movement speed of cumulus clouds to the wind speed when wind drives the movement of cumulus clouds; the second area is the remaining area after deducting the first area from the area to be predicted.

[0125] In the first area, The calculation formula is:

[0126] ;

[0127] In the second area, The value of is simplified to be the same as equal.

[0128] Furthermore, the iterative calculation module includes:

[0129] The initial simulation module is used to acquire the power grid topology data and line parameters of the area to be predicted, and to establish a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted. In the power grid simulation calculation model of the area to be predicted, the first distributed photovoltaic system to the second... N The active power of distributed photovoltaic systems is set as the first initial predicted active power to the second... N Initial predicted active power; [Transferring the first distributed photovoltaic power to the second...] N The power factor of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems is set as the average of the lower and upper power factor limits. Power flow simulation methods are used to calculate the power factors from the first distributed PV system to the [number missing]th [system / system / etc.]. N Simulated values ​​of the effective value of the bus voltage of the grid node connected to the distributed photovoltaic system.

[0130] The iterative simulation module, connected to the initial simulation module, is used to simulate the first distributed photovoltaic system to the second... NIn distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, those PV systems whose simulated effective values ​​of the bus voltage at connected grid nodes are not within the preset lower to upper voltage limits are marked as PV systems operating under predicted variable power factor (VPF) conditions. N The predicted irradiance corresponding to photovoltaic systems operating at the predicted variable power factor (VPF) is selected from the predicted irradiance and labeled as VPF predicted irradiance. These VPF predicted irradiances are then input into a nonlinear correlation function for irradiance power, and the output is the predicted active power at the VPF. From the first initial predicted active power to the... N In the initial predicted active power, the initial predicted active power corresponding to the photovoltaic system operating with the predicted variable power factor is replaced with the active power predicted with the variable power factor; the replaced active power is used as the active power of the current cycle, and the power factor of the photovoltaic system operating with the predicted variable power factor is set to a preset lag power factor value for voltage regulation to obtain the distributed photovoltaic power condition of the current cycle; the iterative steps are repeated until the iteration termination condition is met.

[0131] The iterative steps are as follows: re-execute the power flow simulation calculation to obtain the results from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the [missing information]. N Simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the bus voltage of the grid nodes connected to the distributed photovoltaic system; re-selected photovoltaic systems operating with predicted variable power factor and calculated the predicted active power of the variable power factor; updated the power conditions of the distributed photovoltaic system in the current cycle.

[0132] The iteration termination condition is: from the first distributed photovoltaic to the... N The simulated values ​​of the effective voltage of the grid node bus connected to the distributed photovoltaic system are all between the lower voltage limit and the upper voltage limit, or the number of iterations reaches the preset maximum number of iterations.

[0133] It should be noted that the specific methods by which each module performs operations in the system described in the above embodiments have been described in detail in the embodiments related to the method, and will not be elaborated here.

[0134] Finally, it should be noted that although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art can still modify the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments or make equivalent substitutions for some of the technical features. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc., made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for intelligent prediction of distributed photovoltaic power generation, characterized in that, The method includes the following steps: S1, based on the pre-set latitude and longitude data of the area to be predicted, map the area to be predicted into a two-dimensional plane coordinate system; number all distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems within the area to be predicted, denoted as the first distributed PV system to the next. N Distributed photovoltaic; obtaining the first distributed photovoltaic to the first N The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the geographical locations of distributed photovoltaic installations are denoted as the first location to the second location. N Location; from the first distributed photovoltaic to the first N The rated active power and rated apparent power of the distributed photovoltaic system are the same; the planar shape of the area to be predicted is rectangular. S2, obtain wind speed and wind direction data measured by an anemometer evenly distributed in the area to be predicted, and fit the wind vector distribution function; obtain current irradiance data measured by an irradiance meter evenly distributed in the area to be predicted, and fit the current irradiance distribution function. S3, obtain the first distributed photovoltaic to the... N The actual active power of distributed photovoltaic power is denoted as the first actual active power to the second. N Actual active power; S4, based on the predicted wind vector distribution function of the area, the current irradiance distribution function, and the first actual active power to the second... N Actual active power, first position to the first N The location is used to perform spatiotemporal extrapolation of the spatial distribution of the actual active power, and the results are calculated to obtain the time points from the first distributed photovoltaic power station to the second distributed photovoltaic power station at the time to be predicted. N The predicted output active power of distributed photovoltaic power includes: First distributed photovoltaic to the first N In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, those whose actual output power factor falls outside the preset lower to upper power factor limits are selected and marked as variable power factor (VPF) PV systems. The actual active power corresponding to the VPF PV system is obtained and denoted as the second active power fitting sequence. The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of the VPF PV system are obtained and substituted into the current irradiance distribution function. The current irradiance data corresponding to the installation geographical location of the photovoltaic system operating with variable power factor is calculated and denoted as the second current irradiance fitting sequence. The second current irradiance fitting sequence is used as the independent variable and the second active power fitting sequence is used as the dependent variable. The nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power is obtained by fitting the polynomial fitting method. Establish a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted, and adjust the first initial predicted active power to the second... N The initial predicted active power is substituted into the power grid simulation model of the area to be predicted for simulation calculation. Based on the simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the grid node bus voltage, the first to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation projects are selected. N In distributed photovoltaic systems, the predicted variable power factor (VPF) photovoltaic system is calculated based on a nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power to obtain the predicted active power of the VPF system, and the predicted active power is calculated from the first initial predicted active power to the second... N In the initial predicted active power, the predicted active power using the variable power factor is used to replace the initial predicted active power, and the final active power from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the second is obtained through iterative calculation. N Predicted output active power of distributed photovoltaic power.

2. The intelligent prediction method for distributed photovoltaic power generation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The method for obtaining wind speed and direction data uniformly distributed in the area to be predicted by an anemometer and fitting a wind vector distribution function, and obtaining current irradiance data uniformly distributed in the area to be predicted by a radiometer and fitting a current irradiance distribution function, includes: A spatial interpolation algorithm is used to fit the wind speed and direction data obtained from discrete anemometers uniformly distributed across the area to be predicted into a continuous wind vector distribution function covering the two-dimensional plane coordinate system; the wind vector distribution function includes a horizontal axis wind speed distribution function. and vertical axis wind speed distribution function The horizontal axis wind speed distribution function represents the component of the wind speed at each two-dimensional plane coordinate point in the horizontal direction of the two-dimensional plane coordinate system; the vertical axis wind speed distribution function represents the component of the wind speed at each two-dimensional plane coordinate point in the vertical direction of the two-dimensional plane coordinate system. This represents the x-coordinate value of a point in a two-dimensional plane. This represents the ordinate value of a point in a two-dimensional plane. A spatial interpolation algorithm is used to fit the current irradiance data obtained from radiometer measurements, which are discretely and uniformly distributed across the area to be predicted, into a continuous current irradiance distribution function covering the two-dimensional plane coordinate system. .

3. The intelligent prediction method for distributed photovoltaic power generation as described in claim 2, characterized in that, The prediction is based on the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area, the current irradiance distribution function, and the first actual active power to the second... N Actual active power, first position to the first N The location is used to perform spatiotemporal extrapolation of the spatial distribution of the actual active power, and the results are calculated to obtain the time points from the first distributed photovoltaic power station to the second distributed photovoltaic power station at the time to be predicted. N Methods for predicting the output active power of distributed photovoltaic systems include: The predicted irradiance distribution function is calculated based on the wind vector distribution function and the current irradiance distribution function of the predicted area. ; Obtain the first distributed photovoltaic to the first N The actual output power factor of distributed photovoltaic (PV) power; from the first distributed PV to the second N In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, PV units whose actual output power factor falls between a pre-set lower and upper power factor limit are selected and marked as constant power factor operating PV units. The actual active power corresponding to the constant power factor operating PV units is obtained and denoted as the first active power fitting sequence. The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of the constant power factor operating PV units are obtained and substituted into the current irradiance distribution function. The current irradiance data corresponding to the installation geographical location of the photovoltaic system operating with constant power factor is calculated and denoted as the first current irradiance fitting sequence. The first current irradiance fitting sequence is used as the independent variable and the first active power fitting sequence is used as the dependent variable. The least squares fitting method is used to fit the linear correlation function of irradiance power. To move the first distributed photovoltaic to the second N Substituting the two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of distributed photovoltaics into the predicted irradiance distribution function yields the first predicted irradiance to the second. N Predicted irradiance; respectively, the first predicted irradiance to the second... N The predicted irradiance is obtained by inputting the irradiance power linear correlation function and outputting the first initial predicted active power up to the second. N Initial predicted active power.

4. The intelligent prediction method for distributed photovoltaic power generation as described in claim 3, characterized in that, The predicted irradiance distribution function is calculated based on the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area and the current irradiance distribution function. The methods include: The predicted irradiance distribution function is obtained by calculating piecewise based on the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area and the current irradiance distribution function. The method for calculating the predicted irradiance distribution function is as follows: according to x , y The value of divides the two-dimensional plane coordinate system into two regions, denoted as the first region and the second region, respectively; the first region is... and ;in , These represent the minimum and maximum x-coordinates of the two-dimensional plane coordinate points within the area to be predicted, obtained in advance. , These represent the minimum and maximum ordinate values ​​of the two-dimensional plane coordinate points within the area to be predicted, obtained in advance. This represents a pre-set time interval, i.e., the difference between the predicted time point and the current time point; The cloud movement ratio is a pre-set cloud movement ratio obtained through historical data statistics; the cloud movement ratio reflects the ratio of the movement speed of cumulus clouds to the wind speed when wind drives the movement of cumulus clouds; the second area is the area remaining after deducting the first area from the area to be predicted. In the first area, The calculation formula is: ； In the second area, The value of is simplified to be the same as equal.

5. The intelligent prediction method for distributed photovoltaic power generation as described in claim 4, characterized in that, The establishment of a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted will be used to adjust the first initial predicted active power to the second... N The initial predicted active power is substituted into the power grid simulation model of the area to be predicted for simulation calculation. Based on the simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the grid node bus voltage, the first to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation projects are selected. N In distributed photovoltaic systems, the predicted variable power factor (VPF) photovoltaic system is calculated based on a nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power to obtain the predicted active power of the VPF system, and the predicted active power is calculated from the first initial predicted active power to the second... N In the initial predicted active power, the predicted active power using the variable power factor is used to replace the initial predicted active power, and the final active power from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the second is obtained through iterative calculation. N Methods for predicting the output active power of distributed photovoltaic systems include: Obtain the power grid topology data and line parameters of the area to be predicted, and establish a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted; in the power grid simulation calculation model of the area to be predicted, the first distributed photovoltaic power generation system to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation system will be integrated into the grid. N The active power of distributed photovoltaic systems is set as the first initial predicted active power to the second... N Initial predicted active power; [Transferring the first distributed photovoltaic power to the second...] N The power factor of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems is set as the average of the lower and upper power factor limits. Power flow simulation methods are used to calculate the power factors from the first distributed PV system to the [number missing]th [system / system / etc.]. N Simulated values ​​of the effective value of the bus voltage of the grid node connected to the distributed photovoltaic system; First distributed photovoltaic to the first N In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, those PV systems whose simulated effective values ​​of the bus voltage at connected grid nodes are not within the preset lower to upper voltage limits are marked as PV systems operating under predicted variable power factor (VPF) conditions. N The predicted irradiance corresponding to photovoltaic systems operating at the predicted variable power factor (VPF) is selected from the predicted irradiance and labeled as VPF predicted irradiance. These VPF predicted irradiances are then input into a nonlinear correlation function for irradiance power, and the output is the predicted active power at the VPF. From the first initial predicted active power to the... N In the initial predicted active power, the initial predicted active power corresponding to the photovoltaic system operating with the predicted variable power factor is replaced with the active power predicted with the variable power factor; the replaced active power is used as the active power of the current cycle, and the power factor of the photovoltaic system operating with the predicted variable power factor is set to a preset lag power factor value for voltage regulation to obtain the distributed photovoltaic power condition of the current cycle; the iterative steps are repeated until the iteration termination condition is met. The iterative steps are as follows: re-execute the power flow simulation calculation to obtain the results from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the [missing information]. N Simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the bus voltage of the grid nodes connected to the distributed photovoltaic system; re-selected photovoltaic systems operating with predicted variable power factor and calculated the predicted active power of the variable power factor; updated the power conditions of the distributed photovoltaic system in the current round. The iteration termination condition is: from the first distributed photovoltaic to the... N The simulated values ​​of the effective voltage of the grid node bus connected to the distributed photovoltaic system are all between the lower voltage limit and the upper voltage limit, or the number of iterations reaches the preset maximum number of iterations.

6. A distributed photovoltaic power generation intelligent prediction system, characterized in that, The system includes: The data reading module is used to map the area to be predicted into a two-dimensional plane coordinate system based on the pre-set latitude and longitude data of the area to be predicted; and to number all distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems within the area to be predicted, designating them as the first distributed PV system to the next. N Distributed photovoltaic; obtaining the first distributed photovoltaic to the first N The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the geographical locations of distributed photovoltaic installations are denoted as the first location to the second location. N Location; from the first distributed photovoltaic to the first N The rated active power and rated apparent power of the distributed photovoltaic system are the same; the planar shape of the area to be predicted is rectangular. The data fitting module, connected to the data reading module, is used to acquire wind speed and wind direction data measured by an anemometer evenly distributed in the area to be predicted, and to fit the wind vector distribution function; and to acquire the current irradiance data measured by a radiometer evenly distributed in the area to be predicted, and to fit the current irradiance distribution function. The power reading module, connected to the data fitting module, is used to obtain power data from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation unit to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation unit. N The actual active power of distributed photovoltaic power is denoted as the first actual active power to the second. N Actual active power; The power prediction module, connected to the power reading module, is used to predict the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area, the current irradiance distribution function, and the first actual active power up to the second... N Actual active power, first position to the first N The location is used to perform spatiotemporal extrapolation of the spatial distribution of the actual active power, and the results are calculated to obtain the time points from the first distributed photovoltaic power station to the second distributed photovoltaic power station at the time to be predicted. N The predicted output active power of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems includes: a nonlinear correlation function fitting module for irradiance power, used to fit the active power output from the first distributed PV system to the second... N In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, those whose actual output power factor falls outside the preset lower to upper power factor limits are selected and marked as variable power factor (VPF) PV systems. The actual active power corresponding to the VPF PV system is obtained and denoted as the second active power fitting sequence. The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of the VPF PV system are obtained and substituted into the current irradiance distribution function. The current irradiance data corresponding to the installation location of the photovoltaic system operating with variable power factor is calculated and denoted as the second current irradiance fitting sequence. Using the second current irradiance fitting sequence as the independent variable and the second active power fitting sequence as the dependent variable, a polynomial fitting method is used to fit the nonlinear correlation function of the irradiance power. An iterative calculation module is used to establish a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted, and to adjust the first initial predicted active power to the second... N The initial predicted active power is substituted into the power grid simulation model of the area to be predicted for simulation calculation. Based on the simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the grid node bus voltage, the first to the second distributed photovoltaic power generation projects are selected. N In distributed photovoltaic systems, the predicted variable power factor (VPF) photovoltaic system is calculated based on a nonlinear correlation function of irradiance power to obtain the predicted active power of the VPF system, and the predicted active power is calculated from the first initial predicted active power to the second... N In the initial predicted active power, the predicted active power using the variable power factor is used to replace the initial predicted active power, and the final active power from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the second is obtained through iterative calculation. N Predicted output active power of distributed photovoltaic power.

7. The distributed photovoltaic power generation intelligent prediction system as described in claim 6, characterized in that, The data fitting module includes: The wind vector distribution function fitting module is used to fit the discrete wind speed and direction data obtained from anemometers uniformly distributed across the area to be predicted into a continuous wind vector distribution function covering the two-dimensional plane coordinate system using a spatial interpolation algorithm; the wind vector distribution function includes the horizontal axis wind speed distribution function. and vertical axis wind speed distribution function The horizontal axis wind speed distribution function represents the component of the wind speed at each two-dimensional plane coordinate point in the horizontal direction of the two-dimensional plane coordinate system; the vertical axis wind speed distribution function represents the component of the wind speed at each two-dimensional plane coordinate point in the vertical direction of the two-dimensional plane coordinate system. This represents the x-coordinate value of a point in a two-dimensional plane. This represents the ordinate value of a point in a two-dimensional plane. The current irradiance distribution function fitting module, connected to the wind vector distribution function fitting module, is used to fit the discrete, uniformly distributed radiometer measurements of the area to be predicted into a continuous current irradiance distribution function covering the two-dimensional plane coordinate system using a spatial interpolation algorithm. .

8. The distributed photovoltaic power generation intelligent prediction system as described in claim 7, characterized in that, The power prediction module includes: The module for calculating the predicted irradiance distribution function is used to calculate the predicted irradiance distribution function based on the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area and the current irradiance distribution function. ; The irradiance power linear correlation function fitting module is connected to the predicted irradiance distribution function calculation module to obtain the first distributed photovoltaic power to the second... N The actual output power factor of distributed photovoltaic (PV) power; from the first distributed PV to the second N In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, PV units whose actual output power factor falls between a pre-set lower and upper power factor limit are selected and marked as constant power factor operating PV units. The actual active power corresponding to the constant power factor operating PV units is obtained and denoted as the first active power fitting sequence. The two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of the constant power factor operating PV units are obtained and substituted into the current irradiance distribution function. The current irradiance data corresponding to the installation geographical location of the photovoltaic system operating with constant power factor is calculated and denoted as the first current irradiance fitting sequence. The first current irradiance fitting sequence is used as the independent variable and the first active power fitting sequence is used as the dependent variable. The least squares fitting method is used to fit the linear correlation function of irradiance power. The initial predicted active power calculation module is connected to the irradiance power nonlinear correlation function fitting module, and is used to convert the first distributed photovoltaic power to the second... N Substituting the two-dimensional plane coordinates corresponding to the installation location of distributed photovoltaics into the predicted irradiance distribution function yields the first predicted irradiance to the second. N Predicted irradiance; respectively, the first predicted irradiance to the second... N The predicted irradiance is obtained by inputting the irradiance power linear correlation function and outputting the first initial predicted active power up to the second. N Initial predicted active power.

9. The distributed photovoltaic power generation intelligent prediction system as described in claim 8, characterized in that, The module for calculating the predicted irradiance distribution function includes: The segmented calculation module is used to calculate the predicted irradiance distribution function in segments based on the wind vector distribution function of the predicted area and the current irradiance distribution function. The method for calculating the predicted irradiance distribution function is as follows: according to x , y The value of divides the two-dimensional plane coordinate system into two regions, denoted as the first region and the second region, respectively; the first region is... and ;in , These represent the minimum and maximum x-coordinates of the two-dimensional plane coordinate points within the area to be predicted, obtained in advance. , These represent the minimum and maximum ordinate values ​​of the two-dimensional plane coordinate points within the area to be predicted, obtained in advance. This represents a pre-set time interval, i.e., the difference between the predicted time point and the current time point; The cloud movement ratio is a pre-set cloud movement ratio obtained through historical data statistics; the cloud movement ratio reflects the ratio of the movement speed of cumulus clouds to the wind speed when wind drives the movement of cumulus clouds; the second area is the area remaining after deducting the first area from the area to be predicted. In the first area, The calculation formula is: ； In the second area, The value of is simplified to be the same as equal.

10. The distributed photovoltaic power generation intelligent prediction system as described in claim 9, characterized in that, The iterative calculation module includes: The initial simulation module is used to acquire the power grid topology data and line parameters of the area to be predicted, and to establish a power grid simulation calculation model for the area to be predicted. In the power grid simulation calculation model of the area to be predicted, the first distributed photovoltaic system to the second... N The active power of distributed photovoltaic systems is set as the first initial predicted active power to the second... N Initial predicted active power; [Transferring the first distributed photovoltaic power to the second...] N The power factor of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems is set as the average of the lower and upper power factor limits. Power flow simulation methods are used to calculate the power factors from the first distributed PV system to the [number missing]th [system / system / etc.]. N Simulated values ​​of the effective value of the bus voltage of the grid node connected to the distributed photovoltaic system; The iterative simulation module, connected to the initial simulation module, is used to simulate the first distributed photovoltaic system to the second... N In distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems, those PV systems whose simulated effective values ​​of the bus voltage at connected grid nodes are not within the preset lower to upper voltage limits are marked as PV systems operating under predicted variable power factor (VPF) conditions. N The predicted irradiance corresponding to photovoltaic systems operating at the predicted variable power factor (VPF) is selected from the predicted irradiance and labeled as VPF predicted irradiance. These VPF predicted irradiances are then input into a nonlinear correlation function for irradiance power, and the output is the predicted active power at the VPF. From the first initial predicted active power to the... N In the initial predicted active power, the initial predicted active power corresponding to the photovoltaic system operating with the predicted variable power factor is replaced with the active power predicted with the variable power factor; the replaced active power is used as the active power of the current cycle, and the power factor of the photovoltaic system operating with the predicted variable power factor is set to a preset lag power factor value for voltage regulation to obtain the distributed photovoltaic power condition of the current cycle; the iterative steps are repeated until the iteration termination condition is met. The iterative steps are as follows: re-execute the power flow simulation calculation to obtain the results from the first distributed photovoltaic power generation to the [missing information]. N Simulated values ​​of the effective values ​​of the bus voltage of the grid nodes connected to the distributed photovoltaic system; re-selected photovoltaic systems operating with predicted variable power factor and calculated the predicted active power of the variable power factor; updated the power conditions of the distributed photovoltaic system in the current round. The iteration termination condition is: from the first distributed photovoltaic to the... N The simulated values ​​of the effective voltage of the grid node bus connected to the distributed photovoltaic system are all between the lower voltage limit and the upper voltage limit, or the number of iterations reaches the preset maximum number of iterations.

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