Warning tide level verification method

Abstract

The invention relates to a warning tide level verification method, which comprises the following steps of: determining a reasonable frequency range of occurrence of a blue warning tide level and a red warning tide level of a verified shore section according to an actual defense work requirement, a defense standard and a historical tide disaster condition; checking whether the blue warning tide level value is higher than the theoretical highest tide level value, if so, judging that the blue warning tide level is reasonable, and otherwise, judging that the blue warning tide level is unreasonable; whether the occurrence frequency of the high tide level exceeding the blue warning tide level and the red warning tide level in the typhoon period is within the reasonable frequency range or not is judged, if yes, the corresponding warning tide level is judged to be reasonable, and if not, the corresponding warning tide level is judged to be unreasonable; and according to the tidal disaster condition during the typhoon period, analyzing whether the disaster level under each early warning level is consistent with the actual tidal disaster, if so, determining that the early warning level is reasonable, otherwise, determining that the early warning level is unreasonable.

Description

[0001] Technical Field This application relates to the field of geological survey technology, specifically to a method for verifying warning tide levels.

[0002] Background Technology: The determination and verification of warning tide levels is a core aspect of marine disaster early warning and reporting work, directly related to the safety of people's lives and property in coastal areas. Currently, my country mainly operates according to the "Specification for Determination of Warning Tide Levels" (GB / T17839-2011). However, this specification has significant limitations: The verification methods provided are rather general and vague, lacking clear and quantitative evaluation criteria to measure whether the verified warning tide levels are scientific and reasonable. This leads to a high reliance on the personal experience and subjective judgment of experts in actual verification work, making it difficult to guarantee the objectivity, consistency and operability of the verification results. In the prior art, patent application CN202311674295.6 provides a method for predicting extreme storm tide levels. It focuses on improving the forecast accuracy of extreme events through hydrodynamic models and regression analysis. Although the prior art involves historical tide level analysis, astronomical tide calculation and disaster assessment, its technical purpose is to "predict" and "assess" rather than to "verify" whether the existing "warning tide level values" are reasonable. It does not solve the problem of how to establish an objective and quantitative standard to comprehensively verify the rationality of the warning tide level threshold setting. Therefore, there is an urgent need in this field for a warning tide level verification method that can overcome subjectivity, integrate multi-source information, and have clear discrimination criteria, so as to improve the accuracy and reliability of warning signals.

[0003] Summary of the Invention In order to solve the problems existing in the prior art, the purpose of this application is to provide a method for verifying warning tide levels.

[0004] The method for verifying warning tide levels described in this application includes: S101. Collect historical hourly tide data for representative points of the verified shoreline, tide data during typhoons, and data on tidal disasters in the rear protection zone during typhoons. Process the historical hourly tide data based on the harmonic analysis method to obtain the harmonic constant of the representative points. S102. Calculate the theoretical highest tide level of the representative point based on the harmonic constant, count the number of times the blue and red warning tide levels appear in the historical records, and analyze the warning level during the typhoon by combining the tide level data during the typhoon. S103. Based on the actual needs of defense work, defense standards and historical tidal disasters, determine the reasonable frequency range of the occurrence of blue and red warning tide levels for the designated shoreline. S104. Verify whether the blue warning tide level is higher than the theoretical highest tide level. If so, the blue warning tide level is deemed reasonable; otherwise, it is deemed unreasonable. S105. Determine whether the frequency of occurrence of high tide levels exceeding blue and red warning tide levels during typhoon seasons is within the reasonable frequency range. If so, the corresponding warning tide level is deemed reasonable; otherwise, it is deemed unreasonable. S106. Based on the tidal disaster situation during the typhoon, analyze whether the disaster level under each warning level is consistent with the actual tidal disaster. If they are consistent, the warning level is deemed reasonable; otherwise, it is deemed unreasonable.

[0005] Preferably, the harmonic analysis method in S101 includes: Tides are generated by the gravitational pull of celestial bodies (mainly the Moon and the Sun) and can be considered as the superposition of multiple sine waves of different frequencies. Harmonic analysis, through Fourier series expansion, expresses the tidal level as: in, This represents the tide level at time t. Indicates mean sea level. , Indicates the amplitude and lag angle of the tidal constituents. Indicates the frequency of the tidal phase angle. , This represents the node factor and the astronomical phase angle.

[0006] Preferably, the harmonic analysis method in S102 further includes: First, the tidal constituents that significantly influence the tides are selected. The tidal constituents used to calculate the theoretical highest tide level are: 8 major tidal constituents (M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, P1, Q1), 3 shallow water tidal constituents (M4, MS4, M6), and 2 long-period tidal constituents (S...). a S Sa The tidal level series of observation stations over a year were compiled, and the tidal level series were quality controlled to remove outliers and impute missing data. The amplitude and phase of each tidal constituent were then solved using the least squares method. Mathematical tools that can be used in the above calculation process include T-Tide, UTide, automated harmonic analysis tool (MATLAB), MATLAB, Fortran, and Python.

[0007] Preferably, in S102, the method for calculating the theoretical highest tide level includes: Based on the acquisition of 8 major tidal constituents (M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, P1, Q1), 3 shallow-water tidal constituents (M4, MS4, M6), and 2 long-period tidal constituents (S... a , The harmonic constant of ), the theoretical highest tide level is the theoretically possible highest tide level of the astronomical tide. Based on the astronomical combination of these 13 tidal constituents, the formula for calculating the theoretical highest tide level from the main tidal constituents is: In the formula: H represents the height above mean sea level, in centimeters (cm); h and g represent the tidal harmonic constants; f represents the nodal factor; It is expressed as the phase angle of tidal constituent K1, and it varies from 0° to 360°; When (h) M4 +h M6 +h MS4 When the depth is greater than 20cm, a shallow sea tidal correction is applied. The formula for calculating the correction value is as follows: For sea areas with significant variations in mean sea level, the tidal period (S) should be lengthened. a , The correction is made, and the formula for calculating the correction value is as follows: The node factor f is taken as the f value corresponding to the longitude of the ascending node of the lunar orbit at 0° and 180° respectively (see the table of node factor f values), and the higher one of the calculation results is taken as the theoretical highest tide level.

[0008] Table of node factor f values Preferably, in S103, based on defense requirements and standards, and combined with historical tidal disaster data, a set of tidal disaster records for the designated shoreline is formed, and statistical methods are used to determine the reasonable frequency range of blue and red warning tide levels.

[0009] Preferably, in step S104, the theoretical highest tide level is obtained, and by comparing the blue warning tide level with the theoretical highest tide level, it is determined whether the blue warning tide level is higher than the theoretical highest tide level. If the determination result is higher, the blue warning tide level is determined to be reasonable; otherwise, it is determined to be unreasonable, thus obtaining the reasonableness result of the blue warning tide level.

[0010] Preferably, in step S105, based on the high tide data during the typhoon season, the frequency of occurrence of super blue and red warning tide levels is statistically analyzed to obtain specific frequency values. These values ​​are then compared with a preset reasonable frequency range. If the values ​​are within the range, the corresponding warning tide level is determined to be reasonable. If the values ​​exceed the threshold range, the overall reasonableness of the typhoon season warning tide level is comprehensively determined by combining the adjustment mechanism formed by tide level data collection and historical statistics.

[0011] Preferably, in step S106, based on tidal disaster data during typhoons, the disaster level corresponding to each warning level is extracted and compared with the actual disaster records to obtain preliminary consistency results. After verification by preset matching standards, if they are consistent, the warning level is determined to be reasonable. Combined with historical deviation examples, the deviation measure is calculated by quantifying the difference between the disaster level and the actual disaster to identify potential inconsistencies. Based on the parameter correction mechanism of statistical distribution, the overall warning level is determined to be reasonable.

[0012] The warning tide level verification method described in this application has the following advantages: A threshold verification mechanism based on the theoretical highest tide level effectively avoids false blue alerts caused by simple astronomical high tide levels, strictly limiting the warning triggering conditions to abnormal water increases caused by extreme weather such as storm surges, thus reducing false alarms. Furthermore, it proposes a reasonable frequency range by combining actual defense capabilities and historical disaster data to set a quantitative interval for the frequency of events exceeding the warning level, addressing the pain point of the original specifications lacking frequency evaluation criteria, making the verification conclusions verifiable. It also organically combines three dimensions: astronomical tide extreme value verification, warning level frequency statistical verification, and disaster matching verification, overcoming the one-sidedness of single-indicator verification and comprehensively ensuring the rationality of the warning tide level setting. Attached Figure Description

[0013] Figure 1 This is the process of a warning tide level verification method described in this application. Figure 1 ; Figure 2 This is the process of a warning tide level verification method described in this application. Figure 2 . Detailed Implementation

[0014] like Figures 1-2 As shown, the method for verifying warning tide levels described in this application includes the following steps: like Figures 1-2 As shown in S101, collect historical hourly tide data for representative points of the verified shoreline, tide data during typhoons, and data on tidal disasters in the rear protection zone during typhoons. Process the historical hourly tide data based on the harmonic analysis method to obtain the harmonic constant of the representative points.

[0015] Furthermore, in step S101, by using the representative points of the shoreline, typhoon-related tide level data and tidal disaster data of the rear protection zone are obtained from the historical hourly tide level data over many years, thus obtaining a preliminary data set; Based on the preliminary dataset, the harmonic analysis method is used to process the hourly tide data over many years. This harmonic analysis method decomposes the tide time series into multiple sinusoidal components through Fourier transform, calculates the amplitude and phase of each component, and obtains the harmonic constant of the representative point. If the deviation between the harmonic constant of the representative point and the tide level data during the typhoon exceeds a preset threshold, then the influencing factors of the protection zone are obtained from the tide disaster data, and the adjustment parameters are determined by calculating the difference between the influencing factors and the harmonic constant. By adjusting the parameters, the harmonic constant of the representative point is corrected to obtain the basis for the final tide level prediction.

[0016] Specifically, in step S101, historical hourly tide data of representative points of the verified shoreline are first collected. These data usually come from tide (water) level observation stations or satellite remote sensing systems, covering at least ten years of continuous records to ensure the long-term nature and reliability of the data. For example, these hourly tide values ​​and typhoon-period minute or hourly tide height change records can be obtained from the databases of natural resources, water conservancy and other departments, so as to provide sufficient samples for subsequent analysis. Furthermore, tide data during typhoons and data on tidal disasters in the rear protection area during typhoons are collected. Typhoon-related tide data focuses on abnormal tide rises under specific storm events. It is usually captured by real-time monitoring equipment such as tide gauges, recording the peak value and duration under the influence of the storm path. Data on tidal disasters in the rear protection zone includes the extent of flooding, property damage assessments, and reports on personnel impacts. This data can be obtained from local disaster archives or field investigations and is used to verify the actual impact of tidal data. The historical hourly tide data over many years is processed using the harmonic analysis method to obtain the harmonic constants of representative points. Harmonic analysis is a mathematical method that decomposes a tide time series into multiple sine and cosine components. Its principle is based on the assumption that tide changes are caused by the superposition of astronomical tides and non-astronomical factors. The data is fitted by the least squares method to extract the amplitude and phase of each component. In one embodiment, historical tide data is first preprocessed, including removing outliers and filling in missing data. Then, the tide sequence is represented as the sum of multiple tidal components, each corresponding to a specific frequency, including semi-diurnal or diurnal tides. Next, Fourier transform or similar algorithms are used to calculate the parameters of each component. For example, for a data sequence representing a point, a list of known tidal frequencies is selected, and iterative fitting is performed to minimize the residuals, thereby deriving the harmonic constants, including the amplitude and phase values ​​of the main tidal components. This processing enables accurate modeling of tide changes, providing a basis for predicting future tide levels. In one possible implementation, the number of frequency components in the harmonic analysis can be adjusted for representative points on different shorelines. For example, in estuarine shorelines, low-frequency components related to channel influence can be added, while in open coastlines, components dominated by astronomical tides can be prioritized to adapt to specific geographical environments. It should be noted that the obtained harmonic constants can be used to simulate tidal response during typhoons. By combining them with collected typhoon data, storm surge effects can be calculated to assess the potential tidal disaster risk in the rear protection zone. This method can support the accuracy of disaster prevention planning in coastal engineering. In another embodiment, for shorelines with limited historical data, numerical simulation data can be used to assist in harmonic analysis. First, a tidal level numerical model is established based on shallow water equations to simulate multi-year tidal level sequences. Then, it is fused with measured data for analysis to obtain more stable harmonic constants. For example, in the application of the Yangtze River estuary, the collected hourly tidal level data covers the period from 2000 to 2020, the typhoon data includes the tidal level record of Typhoon Lekima in 2019, and the tidal disaster data records the inundated area of ​​farmland behind the typhoon. Through harmonic analysis, the constants of the main tidal components such as M2 and S2 are extracted for subsequent storm surge prediction models. Understandably, this data processing workflow ensures the accuracy of the harmonic constants and is applicable to multiple coastal scenarios, such as the southeast coast or the Beibu Gulf region. Similar steps can be used to achieve this. Furthermore, during the harmonic analysis process, quality control steps can be introduced, including comparing the fitting residuals with the standard deviation of the observed data. If the residuals are less than a set threshold, the constants are confirmed to be valid, thereby improving the reliability of the results. In one embodiment, harmonic constants are validated by combining tidal disaster data from the rear protection zone, for example, by using reconstructed simulations of historical typhoon events to compare the degree of matching between predicted tide levels and actual disaster conditions, in order to optimize analysis parameters.

[0017] Specifically, in one embodiment, the steps of collecting data and processing it to obtain the harmonic constant include: Historical hourly tide data, typhoon-related tide data, and tidal disaster data containing timestamps were extracted from a pre-set database to construct a structured dataset. The periodic and aperiodic components in the tidal data are separated by time series decomposition to obtain a periodic tidal series. The amplitude and phase of each tidal component are calculated using harmonic analysis to obtain the set of harmonic constants for representative points.

[0018] like Figures 1-2 As shown in step S102, the theoretical highest tide level of the representative point is calculated based on the harmonic constant, the number of occurrences of blue and red warning tide levels in historical records is counted, and the warning level during the typhoon is analyzed in combination with the tide level data during the typhoon.

[0019] Further, in step S102, the theoretical highest tide level of the representative point is calculated by using the amplitude and phase superposition method based on the harmonic constant. The amplitude and phase are derived from the harmonic constant decomposition. After superposition, the peak value is obtained to obtain the peak tide level data. From the peak tide data, the number of times blue and red warning tide levels appeared in the historical records is counted, and the warning frequency index is determined by accumulating the number of occurrences. The warning frequency index is obtained and combined with the tide level data during the typhoon. If the deviation between the warning frequency index and the typhoon tide level exceeds a preset threshold, it is judged as abnormal, and the degree of tide level abnormality during the typhoon is obtained. Based on the degree of tide level anomaly, a level mapping method is used to analyze the warning level during typhoons, where the degree of anomaly corresponds to different levels, and the warning level results are obtained.

[0020] Specifically, in step S102, in one embodiment, the theoretical highest tide level of the representative point is calculated based on the obtained harmonic constant. The theoretical highest tide level refers to the peak tide level simulated by the harmonic constant under ideal astronomical conditions. This calculation is based on the superposition principle of tidal components. The harmonic constant includes the amplitude and phase values ​​of each tidal component. For example, the M2 component represents the main contribution of the semi-diurnal tide. By inputting these constants into the tide level prediction formula, the highest point of the time series can be synthesized. For example, at a tide (water) level observation station, the theoretical highest tide level value is obtained by adding the sine functions of all components using a formula. This process ensures accurate simulation of tide level changes and provides basic data for subsequent risk assessment. In the application of the southeastern coastal section, this calculation takes into account the local tide type, including mixed tides, and adjusts the component weights to obtain accurate results. Furthermore, the number of occurrences of blue and red alert tide levels in historical records is statistically analyzed. Blue alert tide level is usually defined as a tide level that exceeds a certain threshold of normal high tide but does not reach a dangerous level, while red alert indicates a higher risk threshold. These thresholds are set based on local defense standards. By comparing the tide level value at each time point with the alert threshold through historical hourly tide level data, instances exceeding blue and red alert levels are counted. For example, in a ten-year dataset, by examining the minute-level or hour-level tide records one by one, if the tide level is higher than the blue alert, the blue count is accumulated; if it is higher than the red alert, the red count is accumulated. This kind of statistics helps to identify the frequency patterns of tide level anomalies. In the coastal sections of the Beibu Gulf region, the number of seasonal occurrences can be further classified and counted to reveal potential patterns. Preferably, the typhoon warning level is analyzed by combining the tide level data during the typhoon. The warning level analysis compares the actual tide level during the typhoon event with the warning threshold to determine the level, such as blue or red. The specific process includes extracting the tide level sequence during the typhoon, such as the peak data from the beginning to the end of the storm. If the peak tide level exceeds the red threshold, it is designated as a red warning. This analysis integrates the influence of the storm path and duration. In one possible implementation, for a specific typhoon event, such as when the path is close to the coast, the tide level deviation is calculated and mapped to a classification standard to guide protective measures. It should be noted that, in another embodiment, when calculating the theoretical highest tide level at a representative point on the estuary, river runoff factors can be incorporated, and the harmonic constant can be adjusted to simulate the composite tide level. In this way, the additional rise caused by runoff can be considered when counting the number of warnings, thus enhancing the applicability of the analysis. For example, in the Yangtze River estuary, historical data statistics show that blue warnings occurred about 50 times and red warnings about 10 times. Combined with typhoon data analysis, it is found that most events were at the blue level. This method supports the accuracy of disaster prevention decision-making. Understandably, this analysis process is applicable to different coastal scenarios, including open coastlines or bay areas, by adjusting the threshold parameters to adapt to local conditions. In one embodiment, for areas with limited historical data, simulated tide sequences are supplemented with statistical analysis to ensure the reliability of the results, thereby providing timely warning level assessments during typhoons.

[0021] Specifically, in one embodiment, the tidal level components are fitted using the least squares method based on the harmonic constant to calculate the theoretical highest tidal level value of the representative point. The theoretical maximum tide level is compared with the blue warning tide level, and the rationality of the blue warning tide level setting is judged by adding the warning tide levels in the statistical historical tide level data. If the blue warning tide level is lower than the theoretical maximum tide level, the approved blue warning tide level is determined to be too low. A low blue warning tide level is likely to cause frequent warnings.

[0022] like Figures 1-2 As shown in S103, based on the actual needs of defense work, defense standards, and historical tidal disasters, the reasonable frequency range of the occurrence of blue and red warning tide levels for the designated shoreline is determined.

[0023] Further, in step S103, the actual defense work requirements and defense standards are obtained, the tide level occurrence data are extracted from historical tidal disasters, and a tidal disaster record set for the verified shoreline is obtained. For the tidal disaster record set, the defense standards are integrated using statistical methods of counting and averaging to determine the reasonable frequency range of occurrence of blue warning tide levels and red warning tide levels.

[0024] Specifically, in step S103, in one embodiment, the reasonable frequency range of the occurrence of super blue and red warning tide levels of the designated shore section is determined by comprehensively considering the actual defense work requirements, defense standards and historical tidal disasters. First, data on the actual defense work requirements are collected, such as the level of protection facilities and emergency response capabilities of the shore section. The lower limit of the frequency range is set by evaluating these requirements to ensure that the range meets the actual tolerable occurrence frequency. Furthermore, defense standards serve as a reference, including national or local tide level warning threshold specifications. These standards define that blue warning tide levels generally correspond to no danger but require a state of alert, while red warning tides correspond to a high level of danger. When determining the frequency range, these standards are combined with defense needs. For example, in the designated coastal sections of the southeast coast, the defense standard requires that the number of times the blue alert level exceeds the standard should not exceed five times per year on average, in order to maintain normal defense operations. Through this integration, the frequency range is avoided from deviating from the standard requirements, which could lead to improper allocation of defense resources. Preferably, the analysis of historical tidal disasters involves reviewing tidal level records from the past ten years or longer, and counting the number of actual blue and red alert events. For example, in the historical data of the Beibu Gulf coastline, tidal disaster events, such as abnormal high tides caused by typhoons, are extracted, and the annual average frequency of occurrence is calculated. This statistical analysis is obtained through time series analysis. For example, the historical average number of super blue alerts is 3 times per year, and red alerts are 1 time per year, thus providing an empirical basis for a reasonable range. It should be noted that the historical tidal disaster situation also takes into account the degree of damage, such as the flooded area or economic loss. These quantitative indicators are incorporated into the frequency assessment to ensure that the scope reflects the true risk. For example, in the implementation of the designated shoreline in the Yangtze River Estuary, the actual defense work requires emphasis on the river dredging capacity, and the defense standards are based on the threshold set by national regulations. Historical tidal disaster records show that past events were mostly caused by storm surges superimposed on runoff. Through comprehensive analysis, the reasonable frequency range for exceeding the blue alert is determined to be 1-3 times per year on average, and 0.5-1 times per year for the red alert. This range helps to plan protective measures, such as strengthening the dikes. Understandably, this determination process is also applicable to the coastal sections of the bay area. For example, by analyzing the seasonal distribution of historical tidal disasters, the range can be adjusted to cover the peak of the typhoon season. Furthermore, in coastal sections with insufficient data, simulated tidal disaster scenarios can be used to estimate the frequency to ensure the reliability of the range. The above-mentioned comprehensive technical solution for determining a reasonable frequency range can achieve accurate assessment of the risk of the coastal section and support subsequent defense decisions. In one embodiment, for shorelines with mixed tidal types, the analysis of historical tidal disasters also incorporates the influence of tidal components, refining frequency boundaries to improve the applicability of the range.

[0025] Specifically, in one embodiment, the step of determining a reasonable frequency range includes: Determine the reasonable frequency range of the blue and red alert tide levels for each shoreline section, and obtain the tide level warning frequency configuration results; The method for determining the reasonable frequency range standard is to comprehensively consider actual defense work, actual defense standards, and historical tidal disasters. The reasonable frequency of occurrence of super blue alert tide levels is 0-4 times per year on average. For sections of the coast with dikes, the red alert tide level is determined by the actual tide protection standard of the seawall for the designated section, and the reasonable frequency of exceeding the red alert tide level is once every 5 to 100 years.

[0026] like Figures 1-2 As shown in step S104, check whether the blue warning tide level is higher than the theoretical highest tide level. If so, the blue warning tide level is deemed reasonable; otherwise, it is deemed unreasonable.

[0027] Further, in step S104, the theoretical highest tide level is obtained, and by comparing the blue warning tide level with the theoretical highest tide level, it is determined that the blue warning tide level is higher than the theoretical highest tide level. If the judgment result is higher than the blue warning tide level, then the blue warning tide level is deemed reasonable; otherwise, it is deemed unreasonable, thus obtaining the reasonableness result of the blue warning tide level.

[0028] Specifically, in step S104, in one embodiment, the process of verifying whether the blue warning tide level value is higher than the theoretical highest tide level value first obtains the theoretical highest tide level value, which is calculated based on historical tide level data and tidal models, for example, by statistically analyzing the highest tide level records of the past few years and combining the influencing factors of astronomical tides and storm surges. The theoretical maximum tide level represents the upper limit of the extreme tide level that the shoreline may reach, ensuring that the warning setting has a safety margin. Furthermore, the blue warning tide level is compared with it. If the blue warning value is higher than the theoretical value, it is considered reasonable because it indicates that the warning threshold has exceeded the potential highest risk and meets the defense requirements. Preferably, in the application of the designated coastal sections in the southeast coast, the theoretical highest tide level can be calculated from the tide (water) level observation data, and the calculated value is about 5 meters. If the blue warning is set at 5.5 meters, it is higher than the theoretical value, which is reasonable. This comparison helps to avoid underestimating the risk and ensure that the design strength of protective facilities such as seawalls matches the actual needs. For example, in the Beibu Gulf coastal area, the theoretical highest tide level is determined to be 4.2 meters by analyzing tide (water) level observation data. If the blue alert value is 4.0 meters, it is lower than this value, which is unreasonable and needs to be adjusted to improve the alert sensitivity. This judgment process supports subsequent defense planning adjustments. It should be noted that this verification method is also applicable to river estuary sections, such as the Yangtze River estuary area. The theoretical highest tide level is calculated by integrating runoff and tidal interaction factors. If the warning value is higher than this, it is reasonable and can effectively guide emergency response, such as timely evacuation of personnel. In one possible implementation, for the bay area shoreline, the verification can also be combined with real-time tide level monitoring data to dynamically adjust the theoretical value to ensure the accuracy of the judgment. For example, if the monitoring shows that the recent tide level fluctuations have increased, the theoretical value is updated to 4.8 meters, and the rationality of the blue alert is verified accordingly. Understandably, the above verification can enable an objective assessment of the warning tide level setting, ensuring consistent comparison logic when applied to different coastal sections such as open coastlines, and avoiding subjective bias.

[0029] Specifically, in one embodiment, the step of verifying whether the blue warning tide level is higher than the theoretical highest tide level includes: The blue alert tide level value is compared and analyzed with the theoretical highest tide level of the astronomical tide to verify whether the blue alert tide level value is higher than the theoretical highest tide level of the astronomical tide for that section of the shore. Using the astronomical tidal harmonic constant of the verified shoreline, the theoretical highest tide level of the astronomical tide is analyzed and calculated, and then compared with the newly verified blue warning tide level value. If the blue alert tide level is lower than the theoretical highest tide level of the astronomical tide, the determined blue alert tide level is deemed too low and needs to be readjusted.

[0030] like Figures 1-2 As shown in step S105, determine whether the frequency of occurrence of the high tide level exceeding the blue and red warning tide levels during the typhoon period is within the reasonable frequency range. If so, the corresponding warning tide level is determined to be reasonable; otherwise, it is determined to be unreasonable.

[0031] Further, in step S105, high tide data during typhoon season is obtained, and the frequency of occurrence of super blue warning tide level and super red warning tide level is extracted from historical records. The frequency value is obtained by statistically analyzing the frequency of occurrence of the super warning level. For the frequency value, a preset reasonable frequency range is used for comparison. If the frequency value is within the reasonable frequency range, the corresponding warning tide level is determined to be reasonable, and a reasonable warning judgment is obtained. By using the reasonable frequency range, it is determined whether the frequency value exceeds the threshold range, and a preliminary judgment result is obtained; Based on the preliminary judgment results, and combined with the warning tide adjustment mechanism obtained from tide data collection and historical frequency statistics, the overall rationality of the typhoon warning tide level is determined.

[0032] Specifically, in step S105, in one embodiment, the process of determining whether the frequency of occurrence of high tide levels exceeding the blue and red warning tide levels during typhoon season is within a reasonable frequency range first involves acquiring high tide data during typhoon season, which are obtained from historical monitoring records and real-time observation systems. By selecting peak tide levels during specific typhoon seasons and counting the number of times tides exceed the blue alert level, such as in the southeastern coastal section where the typhoon season typically refers to June to October each year, data can be obtained from tide gauges at marine stations, ensuring coverage of at least a 10-year historical cycle. This data collection helps to form the basis for frequency statistics and further compare them with a pre-set reasonable range. Preferably, the determination of a reasonable frequency range is based on statistical models and risk assessments. For example, by analyzing the distribution of past typhoon events, setting the frequency of exceeding the limit for blue alerts to be between 1 and 3 times per year on average is considered reasonable. Here, the reasonable range represents the sensitivity of the alert setting, avoiding misjudgments caused by excessive frequency or infrequent occurrences. It should be noted that when calculating the frequency, a counting method is used to check each high tide event during each typhoon season. If the high tide exceeds the warning value, the count is accumulated to ensure the accuracy of the statistics. Furthermore, the process for judging the frequency of red alert tide levels is similar but the threshold is higher. For example, in the application of the Beibu Gulf coast, red alert corresponds to extreme storm surges, and a reasonable frequency range can be set to an average of once every 5 to 100 years. By comparing the actual frequency with this range, if the actual frequency of exceeding the limit is within this range, the red alert is deemed reasonable; otherwise, the alert value needs to be adjusted to match the actual risk. This judgment supports the optimization of defense strategies and maintains consistent logic across different shorelines. In one possible implementation, frequency calculation can also integrate probability models, such as using a Poisson distribution to estimate the expected occurrence rate of out-of-limit events; First, the average exceedance rate of historical data is calculated, and then compared with the reasonable range. For example, in the estuary section, considering the impact of runoff, the expected frequency is 0.5 to 1.5 times per year on average. If the actual frequency is higher than this, it is judged to be unreasonable. This method enhances the objectivity of the judgment and can guide emergency planning. For example, the evacuation threshold can be adjusted in typhoon warnings. For example, in the scenario of bay area sections, the judgment process can dynamically update the reasonable range based on recent typhoon intensity data. For example, if the frequency of typhoons is monitored to increase, the reasonable range is adjusted to 2 to 4 times per year on average, and the reasonableness of the frequency of blue alerts is verified accordingly. This dynamic adjustment ensures the adaptability of the plan and is equally effective when applied to open coasts, avoiding the limitations of static settings. Understandably, the frequency judgment mentioned above can enable an effective assessment of the warning tide level setting. For example, in the designated coastal sections of the southeast coast, if the frequency of blue warning exceeding the limit is 1.5 times per year on average, which is within the reasonable range of 1 to 3 times per year on average, then it is deemed reasonable. This assessment helps to improve the reliability of coastal protection and ensure timely response to potential risks during typhoon season. During implementation, the detailed steps of frequency statistics include data cleaning, event identification, and range comparison. First, the high tide data is denoised. Then, peak events exceeding the warning value are identified. Finally, the number of occurrences per unit time is calculated and compared with the range threshold. For example, in the Yangtze River estuary area, for the red alert, historical data shows that the limit is exceeded 0.8 times every 10 years. If the current frequency is 1.2 times and exceeds the range, it is considered unreasonable and the warning value needs to be recalibrated to cover extreme scenarios. These detailed steps ensure the accuracy and operability of the judgment and provide reliable support in various coastal environments.

[0033] Specifically, in one embodiment, the step of determining whether the frequency of exceeding the warning tide level is reasonable includes: Verify the frequency of occurrence of blue and red alert tide levels in historical records to determine whether the annual issuance frequency is reasonable from the perspective of defense work arrangements; Verify the consistency between the red alert tide level value and the highest tide level that occurred during the corresponding severe historical storm surge disaster in the coastal section, in order to determine whether the red alert tide level value can reflect the historical severe tidal disaster situation.

[0034] like Figures 1-2 As shown in S106, based on the tidal disaster situation during the typhoon, analyze whether the disaster level under each warning level is consistent with the actual tidal disaster. If they are consistent, the warning level is deemed reasonable; otherwise, it is deemed unreasonable.

[0035] Further, in step S106, data on tidal disasters during the typhoon are obtained, the disaster level under each warning level is extracted from the data, and a preliminary consistency result is obtained by comparing with actual tidal disaster records; Based on the preliminary consistency results, a preset matching standard is used for verification. If they are consistent, the warning level is determined to be reasonable, and a reasonableness judgment is obtained. Based on the aforementioned rationality determination, deviation instances are obtained from historical tidal disaster archives and combined with deviation measurement calculations. The deviation measurement is obtained by quantifying the difference between the disaster level and the actual disaster situation to identify potential inconsistencies. By identifying the potential inconsistencies, an integrated adjustment mechanism is applied, which corrects parameters based on the statistical distribution of deviation instances, determines the rationality of the overall warning level, and obtains the final judgment output.

[0036] Specifically, in step S106, the process of analyzing the tidal disaster situation during the typhoon first involves acquiring relevant data. This data comes from historical tidal disaster records and real-time monitoring systems. By collecting data on tidal level changes, flood inundation range, and economic losses during the typhoon season, a basis for assessing the disaster level is formed. For example, in the southeast coastal areas, the typhoon season usually refers to June to October each year. Data can be obtained from tidal (water) level observation stations and satellite remote sensing to ensure coverage of multiple typhoon events. This data collection helps with subsequent comparative analysis. Preferably, the definition of disaster level is based on standard classification, such as dividing tidal disasters into minor, moderate and severe levels. The minor level corresponds to local flooding without major losses, the moderate level involves infrastructure damage, and the severe level includes large-scale flooding and casualties. It should be noted that this classification references the national tide disaster early warning standards to ensure a clear correspondence with the warning levels. In the analysis, the warning levels, such as blue, yellow, orange, and red, are matched with these disaster levels. Furthermore, the steps of comparing the consistency between the disaster level under each warning level and the actual tide disaster include statistical analysis of the actual disaster performance after the warning was issued in historical cases. First, list the expected disaster level corresponding to each warning level. For example, a yellow warning indicates a minor disaster. Then, compare the actual tidal disaster data, such as whether the actual inundation area matches the expectations. Calculate the consistency rate. For example, if more than 80% of the cases match, it is considered consistent. This comparison process emphasizes the objectivity of the data and avoids subjective bias. For example, in the application of the Beibu Gulf coastline, for an orange warning, the expected disaster level is moderate. If the actual tidal disaster data shows that most events are severe inundation, it is determined to be inconsistent, and the warning threshold needs to be adjusted. This scenario demonstrates adaptability to different coastlines. In one possible implementation, consistency analysis integrates statistical models, such as using a simple pairwise comparison method to estimate the degree of matching, collecting typhoon and tide disaster data from the past 10 years, labeling each warning event with its actual disaster level, and then calculating the proportion of agreement with the expected level. If the proportion of agreement is between 70% and 90%, it is considered to be within a reasonable range. If the actual proportion is 85%, the warning level is determined to be reasonable. This method provides quantitative support to support the optimization of defense decisions. Understandably, the above analysis can be used to assess the effectiveness of the warning level. For example, in estuary sections, if the actual tidal disasters under a red warning are mostly minor, the judgment is unreasonable and the threshold needs to be lowered to match the risk. This assessment is also applicable to bay areas to ensure the reliability of the warning system. The detailed steps of consistency comparison during implementation include data screening, level mapping, and proportion calculation. First, the tidal disaster data is classified and processed, then mapped to the warning level, and finally the consistency ratio is calculated and compared with the threshold. For example, in the Yangtze River estuary area, historical data shows that the consistency ratio for a red warning is 75%. If it is lower than a reasonable range, it is considered unreasonable and needs to be calibrated to cover extreme tidal disaster scenarios. This process ensures the accuracy of the analysis and provides support in various coastal environments. Furthermore, a dynamic adjustment mechanism can be introduced, such as updating the consistency threshold based on recent typhoon data. When applied to open coasts, if the typhoon intensity increases, the consistency rate threshold is adjusted to 65% to 85%, and the reasonableness of the warning is verified accordingly. This adjustment enhances the flexibility of the scheme.

[0037] For those skilled in the art, various other corresponding changes and modifications can be made based on the technical solutions and concepts described above, and all such changes and modifications should fall within the protection scope of the claims of this application.

Claims

1. A method for verifying a warning tide level, characterized by, The method comprises the following steps: S101, collecting historical multi-year hourly tidal level data of representative points of the designated coastal section, tidal level data during typhoon period, and tidal disaster data of the back protection area during the typhoon period, processing the historical multi-year hourly tidal level data based on a harmonic analysis method to obtain harmonic constants of the representative points; S102, calculating the theoretical highest tidal level of the representative points according to the harmonic constants, counting the occurrence times of the blue alert tidal level and the red alert tidal level in the historical records, combining the tidal level data during the typhoon period, and analyzing the warning levels during the typhoon period; S103, comprehensively determining the reasonable frequency range of the occurrence of the blue alert tidal level and the red alert tidal level of the designated coastal section according to the actual defense work requirements, the defense standards and the historical tidal disaster conditions; S104, verifying whether the blue alert tidal level is higher than the theoretical highest tidal level value, if yes, determining that the blue alert tidal level is reasonable, otherwise determining that it is unreasonable; S105, determining whether the occurrence frequency of the high tidal level exceeding the blue alert tidal level and the red alert tidal level during the typhoon period is within the reasonable frequency range, if yes, determining that the corresponding alert tidal level is reasonable, otherwise determining that it is unreasonable; S106, analyzing whether the disaster grade under each warning level is consistent with the actual tidal disaster according to the tidal disaster conditions during the typhoon period, if yes, determining that the warning level is reasonable, otherwise determining that it is unreasonable.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein, The step of collecting data and processing to obtain the harmonic constants comprises: extracting the historical hourly tidal level data containing time stamps, the tidal level data during the typhoon period and the tidal disaster data from a preset database to construct a structured data set; adopting a time series decomposition method to separate the periodic component and the aperiodic component in the tidal level data to obtain a periodic tidal level sequence; applying a harmonic analysis method to calculate the amplitude and phase of each tidal component to obtain a harmonic constant set of the representative points.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein, fitting the tidal level component based on the harmonic constants by using a least square method to calculate the theoretical highest tidal level value of the representative points; comparing the astronomical theoretical highest tidal level value with the blue alert tidal level, if the blue alert tidal level value is lower than the astronomical tidal theoretical highest tidal level, it is determined that the designated blue alert tidal level value is low, and the blue alert tidal level is low, which is easy to cause frequent warning.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein, The step of determining the reasonable frequency range comprises: determining the reasonable frequency range of the blue and red alert tidal levels of each coastal section to obtain a tidal warning frequency configuration result; the determination method of the reasonable frequency range standard is to determine it comprehensively according to the actual defense work, the actual defense standard and the historical tidal disaster conditions; wherein the reasonable occurrence frequency of the blue alert tidal level value is 0-4 times per year; for the red alert tidal level of the coastal section with a dam, the reasonable occurrence frequency of the red alert tidal level value is 1 time per 5-100 years, which is determined according to the actual anti-tidal standard of the anti-tidal dam of the designated coastal section.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein, The step of verifying whether the blue alert tidal level is higher than the theoretical highest tidal level comprises: comparing and analyzing the blue alert tidal level value with the astronomical tidal theoretical highest tidal level to verify whether the blue alert tidal level value is higher than the astronomical tidal theoretical highest tidal level of the coastal section; using the astronomical tidal harmonic constants of the designated coastal section to analyze and calculate the astronomical tidal theoretical highest tidal level, and comparing it with the newly designated blue alert tidal level value; If the blue alert tide level value is lower than the theoretical highest tide level, it is determined that the approved blue alert tide level value is too low, and the approved value needs to be adjusted.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein, The steps of determining whether the frequency of the super-alert tide level is reasonable include: Checking the number of times the blue alert tide level and the red alert tide level value appear in the historical record to determine whether the annual release frequency is reasonable from the perspective of defense work arrangement; Checking the consistency between the red alert tide level value and the highest tide level during the period of serious historical storm surge disasters on the corresponding coast to determine whether the red alert tide level value can reflect the historical serious tide disaster situation.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein, The harmonic constants of eight main constituents, three shallow sea constituents, and two long-period constituents are calculated through astronomical combination, including: Main constituents M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, P1 and Q1, and shallow water constituents M4, MS4, M6 and long period constituents S a , S Sa are added up to calculate the total tide; if the sum of the harmonic constants of the shallow water constituents exceeds 20 cm, i.e. h m4 + h m6 + h mS4 If h > 20 cm, then a shallow water correction term ΔH1 must be added, which is calculated from the nodal factors and the harmonic constants of the individual shallow water constituents, multiplied by the cosine of the phase angle. For sea areas with large average sea level changes, a long-period constituent correction term ΔH2 is also needed, which is obtained by multiplying the amplitude of the long-period constituent by the cosine phase angle and then accumulating; Among them, the node factor f used by each constituent needs to be selected according to the lunar ascending node longitude of 0° or 180°, and the maximum value in all combination calculation results is taken as the theoretical highest tide level of the representative point.

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