Sagomean new energy consumption pre-evaluation system based on time sequence production simulation

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of new energy consumption pre-evaluation systems, in particular to a Saggoga new energy consumption pre-evaluation system based on time sequence production simulation, which comprises a time sequence production simulation module, a constraint condition processing module, a consumption space calculation module and a pre-evaluation output module. According to the method, a mathematical optimization model taking annual maximum new energy consumption as a target is constructed through a time sequence production simulation module, and a constraint condition processing module is combined to comprehensively incorporate a thermal power generating unit climbing constraint, a hydroelectric generating unit seasonal output characteristic, a system reserve capacity dynamic constraint and the like, so that the model better fits the actual operation logic of a Saggob power system; the problem of evaluation deviation caused by constraint simplification in the prior art is solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of new energy consumption pre-assessment systems, specifically to a new energy consumption pre-assessment system for desert and Gobi areas based on time-series production simulation. Background Technology

[0002] In existing technologies, pre-assessment of renewable energy consumption often employs static data analysis or simplified time-series simulation methods. These methods assess a region's renewable energy consumption capacity by statistically analyzing historical power output data and calculating the theoretical transmission capacity of the power grid. These methods are widely used in the planning stage of wind and solar power plants, primarily relying on load forecasting and matching power generation capacity, while also incorporating a rough estimate of the peak-shaving capacity of conventional units. This provides a basic reference for renewable energy project approval and power grid planning.

[0003] However, existing technologies have significant shortcomings: First, they do not fully consider the randomness of new energy output under the special environment of desert and Gobi areas (such as the impact of strong winds and sandstorms on wind and solar power output) and the technical characteristics of conventional units (thermal power and hydropower) (such as the thermoelectric coupling of cogeneration units and the water pumping constraints of pumped storage units), resulting in a large deviation between the assessment model and the actual operating scenario; second, the constraint conditions are simplified, often ignoring key factors such as the dynamic demand for system reserve capacity and the power limitations of transmission lines, making it difficult to accurately calculate the theoretical absorption space of new energy; third, there is a lack of scenario simulation and dynamic iteration mechanisms for large-scale new energy bases in desert and Gobi areas, which cannot adapt to changes in variables such as the proportion of new wind and solar power and the timing of commissioning, resulting in limited guiding value of the pre-assessment results for actual absorption strategies. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In order to overcome the above-mentioned technical problems, the purpose of this invention is to provide a pre-assessment system for the consumption of new energy in desert areas based on time-series production simulation, so as to solve the problems in the background technology.

[0005] The objective of this invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions:

[0006] A pre-assessment system for renewable energy consumption in desert areas based on time-series production simulation includes:

[0007] The time-series production simulation module is used to construct a mathematical optimization model with the goal of maximizing the annual consumption of new energy, based on the output characteristics of new energy (wind power and photovoltaic) and the technical characteristics of conventional units (thermal power and hydropower) in the Shagohuang wind and solar power base.

[0008] The constraint processing module is used to import and process at least one of the following constraints: power balance constraints, system reserve capacity constraints, conventional unit output constraints, conventional unit ramping constraints, new energy output constraints, and external power transmission constraints, and input the processed constraints into the time-series production simulation module.

[0009] The absorption space calculation module is used to calculate the theoretical maximum absorption space of new energy based on the load curve of the desert area and the minimum technical output curve of conventional units in the power system.

[0010] The pre-evaluation output module is used to output the amount of renewable energy consumed in the desert, the amount of power curtailed, the curtailment rate, and optimization suggestions for consumption strategies based on the optimization results of the time-series production simulation module and the calculation results of the consumption space calculation module.

[0011] As a further aspect of the present invention: the objective function of the mathematical optimization model constructed by the time-series production simulation module is:

[0012]

[0013] Indicates the load value. This represents the output value of the j-th hydropower unit. Let m represent the output value of the i-th thermal power unit, m be the total number of hydropower units, and n be the total number of thermal power units.

[0014] As a further aspect of the present invention: the constraint processing module processes the output constraints of thermal power units, including: the electrical output of back-pressure units is proportional to the thermal output; the electrical output of extraction steam units is floating when the thermal output is fixed; and the output of thermal power units satisfies:

[0015] P down ≤P f ≤P up ;

[0016] P down P represents the minimum technical output of a thermal power unit. up P represents the rated output power. f This represents the actual output value of the thermal power unit.

[0017] As a further aspect of the present invention: the constraint processing module processes the hydropower unit output constraints including: the summer hydropower unit output is its rated power, and the winter hydropower unit output is 20%-30% of the summer output, and the hydropower unit output satisfies:

[0018] 0≤P wa ≤P up ;

[0019] P wa P represents the output value of the hydropower unit. up This indicates the rated output value.

[0020] As a further aspect of the present invention: the system reserve capacity constraint processed by the constraint processing module satisfies:

[0021] S≥P maxl×(l%+s%)+P prc ×w%+P r ;

[0022] Where S represents the system's required reserve capacity, and P maxl The forecasted maximum load is represented by 1%, which represents the load reserve percentage, typically 2%-5%, S% represents the contingency reserve percentage, typically 5%-10%, w% represents the reserve capacity requirement due to the error in the predicted output of new energy sources, and P... prc P represents the predicted power of new energy sources. r This represents the maintenance standby capacity, which needs to be set as needed.

[0023] As a further aspect of the present invention: the constraint processing module processes the thermal power unit ramping constraints, including: upward ramping constraint P. g(t) -P g(t-1) ≤P g-up Downhill constraint P g(t-1) -P g(t) ≤P g-down , where P g-up P represents the uphill gradient rate of a thermal power unit. g-down P represents the downward ramp rate of the thermal power unit, t represents time, and P represents the downward ramp rate. g(t) This represents the technical output of the thermal power unit at time t.

[0024] As a further aspect of the present invention: the new energy output constraints processed by the constraint processing module include: wind power output constraints. Photovoltaic output constraints In the formula: This represents the rated output of the photovoltaic system. This represents the rated output of wind power.

[0025] As a further aspect of the present invention: the prerequisite for the absorption space calculation module to calculate the maximum absorption space of new energy theory is that the power system has no safety constraints in the generation, transmission, distribution, transformation and consumption links, no output constraints under the N-1 principle of accidents, no section overload, and meets the dynamic balance of generator set and load consumption, the safety of interconnection line channels and the reserve of emergency backup.

[0026] As a further aspect of the present invention, it also includes a scenario simulation submodule, which is used to simulate the new energy consumption scenarios in the desert under different combinations of "new wind and solar power ratio", "production sequence" and "new energy utilization rate", and feeds back the scenario simulation results to the pre-evaluation output module. The benchmark target for the new energy utilization rate simulated by the scenario simulation submodule is above 95%.

[0027] The beneficial effects of this invention are:

[0028] This invention constructs a mathematical optimization model with the goal of maximizing annual renewable energy consumption through a time-series production simulation module. Combined with a constraint processing module, it comprehensively incorporates factors such as the ramp-up constraints of thermal power units, the seasonal output characteristics of hydropower units, and the dynamic constraints of system reserve capacity. This makes the model more consistent with the actual operating logic of the desert power system and solves the evaluation deviation problem caused by the simplification of constraints in existing technologies.

[0029] The absorption capacity calculation module is based on the dynamic matching of the load curve and the minimum technical output curve of conventional units. It clarifies the theoretical absorption boundary under ideal scenarios such as no safety constraints and no cross-sectional overload. At the same time, it considers the emergency backup optimization strategy. Compared with the static capacity calculation of existing technologies, it can more accurately quantify the absorption potential of new energy in Shagohuang.

[0030] The scenario simulation submodule supports simulation of multiple variables such as the proportion of new wind and solar power, commissioning sequence, and utilization rate of new energy sources. It also sets a benchmark target of over 95% utilization rate and can output targeted consumption solutions under different planning scenarios. The data iteration submodule optimizes model parameters through feedback from actual on-site data, solving the problem that existing technologies are difficult to adapt to the dynamic changes of complex desert environments.

[0031] The pre-assessment output module directly provides consumption capacity, curtailment capacity, curtailment rate, and optimization strategy suggestions. Combined with the comprehensive evaluation model fused by the analytic hierarchy process, it provides quantitative basis for the planning of the Shagohuang new energy base and the formulation of power grid dispatch strategies, thereby improving the engineering practicality of the pre-assessment results. Attached Figure Description

[0032] The invention will now be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0033] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of a pre-assessment system for the consumption of new energy in desert areas based on time-series production simulation, as described in this invention. Detailed Implementation

[0034] The technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0035] Example 1:

[0036] Please see Figure 1 As shown, this embodiment is a pre-assessment system for the consumption of new energy in desert areas based on time-series production simulation, including:

[0037] The time-series production simulation module is used to construct a mathematical optimization model with the goal of maximizing the annual consumption of new energy, based on the output characteristics of new energy (wind power and photovoltaic) and the technical characteristics of conventional units (thermal power and hydropower) in the Shagohuang wind and solar power base.

[0038] The constraint processing module is used to import and process at least one of the following constraints: power balance constraints, system reserve capacity constraints, conventional unit output constraints, conventional unit ramping constraints, new energy output constraints, and external power transmission constraints, and input the processed constraints into the time-series production simulation module.

[0039] The absorption space calculation module is used to calculate the theoretical maximum absorption space of new energy based on the load curve of the desert area and the minimum technical output curve of conventional units in the power system.

[0040] The pre-evaluation output module is used to output the amount of renewable energy consumed in the desert, the amount of power curtailed, the curtailment rate, and optimization suggestions for consumption strategies, based on the optimization results of the time-series production simulation module and the calculation results of the consumption space calculation module.

[0041] The objective function of the mathematical optimization model constructed by the time-series production simulation module is:

[0042]

[0043] Indicates the load value. This represents the output value of the j-th hydropower unit. Let m represent the output value of the i-th thermal power unit, m be the total number of hydropower units, and n be the total number of thermal power units.

[0044] The constraint processing module handles the following power output constraints for thermal power units: for back-pressure units, the electrical output is proportional to the thermal output; for extraction units, the electrical output is floating when the thermal output is fixed; and the power output of thermal power units must satisfy the following conditions:

[0045] P down ≤P f ≤P up ;

[0046] P down P represents the minimum technical output of a thermal power unit. up P represents the rated output power. f This represents the actual output value of the thermal power unit.

[0047] The constraint processing module handles the following constraints for hydropower unit output: Summer hydropower unit output is its rated power; winter hydropower unit output is 20%-30% of summer output; and the hydropower unit output must satisfy the following:

[0048] 0≤P wa ≤P up ;

[0049] P wa P represents the output value of the hydropower unit. up This indicates the rated output value.

[0050] The system standby capacity constraints processed by the constraint processing module satisfy the following:

[0051] S≥P maxl ×(l%+s%)+P prc ×w%+P r ;

[0052] Where S represents the system's required reserve capacity, and P maxl The forecasted maximum load is represented by 1%, which represents the load reserve percentage, typically 2%-5%, S% represents the contingency reserve percentage, typically 5%-10%, w% represents the reserve capacity requirement due to the error in the predicted output of new energy sources, and P... prc P represents the predicted power of new energy sources. r This represents the maintenance standby capacity, which needs to be set as needed.

[0053] The constraint processing module handles the following climbing constraints for thermal power units: upward climbing constraint P g(t) -P g(t-1) ≤P g-up Downhill constraint P g(t-1) -P g(t) ≤P g-down , where P g-up P represents the uphill gradient rate of a thermal power unit. g-down P represents the downward ramp rate of the thermal power unit, t represents time, and P represents the downward ramp rate. g(t) This represents the technical output of the thermal power unit at time t.

[0054] The constraint processing module handles renewable energy output constraints including: wind power output constraints. Photovoltaic output constraints In the formula: This represents the rated output of the photovoltaic system. This represents the rated output of wind power.

[0055] The prerequisites for the new energy absorption space calculation module to calculate the maximum absorption space of new energy theory are: the power system has no safety constraints in the generation, transmission, distribution, transformation and consumption links, no output constraints under the N-1 principle of accidents, no section overload, and meets the dynamic balance of generator set and load consumption, the safety of interconnection line channels and the reserve of emergency backup.

[0056] A pre-assessment system for renewable energy consumption in desert areas based on time-series production simulation also includes a scenario simulation sub-module, which is used to simulate renewable energy consumption scenarios in desert areas under different combinations of "new wind and solar power ratio", "production sequence" and "renewable energy utilization rate", and feeds back the scenario simulation results to the pre-assessment output module. The benchmark target for renewable energy utilization rate simulated by the scenario simulation sub-module is above 95%.

[0057] Example 2

[0058] A pre-assessment system for the consumption of new energy in desert areas based on time-series production simulation is used as follows:

[0059] S1. Collect power output characteristic data of new energy (wind power, photovoltaic) and technical characteristic data of conventional units (thermal power, hydropower) in the Shagohuang wind and solar power base, and at the same time obtain basic information such as regional load and power limitation of external transmission lines;

[0060] S2. Through the constraint processing module, import and process constraints such as power balance, system reserve capacity, conventional unit output and ramp-up, and new energy output, and input the processing results into the time-series production simulation module.

[0061] S3, the time-series production simulation module runs an optimization model based on the above data and constraints, with the goal of maximizing the annual renewable energy consumption;

[0062] S4, the absorption space calculation module combines the load curve of the desert area with the minimum technical output curve of conventional units to calculate the theoretical maximum absorption space of new energy.

[0063] S5. If multi-scenario analysis is required, set up combined scenarios such as "add wind and solar ratio, commissioning sequence" through the scenario simulation sub-module, and output the corresponding simulation results;

[0064] S6. The pre-assessment output module integrates the model optimization results and the consumption space data, and outputs the renewable energy consumption, curtailment rate and consumption strategy optimization suggestions.

[0065] S7. Collect actual waste disposal data from the desert wasteland through the data iteration submodule, and update module parameters to optimize the accuracy of subsequent pre-assessment.

[0066] In the description of this specification, references to terms such as "an embodiment," "example," "specific example," etc., indicate that a specific feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with that embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the invention. In this specification, illustrative expressions of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in one or more embodiments or examples.

[0067] The above description is merely an example and illustration of the present invention. Those skilled in the art can make various modifications or additions to the specific embodiments described, or use similar methods to replace them, as long as they do not deviate from the invention or exceed the scope defined in the claims, all of which should fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A pre-assessment system for the consumption of new energy in desert and Gobi areas based on time-series production simulation, characterized in that, include: The time-series production simulation module is used to construct a mathematical optimization model with the goal of maximizing the annual consumption of new energy, based on the output characteristics of new energy (wind power and photovoltaic) and the technical characteristics of conventional units (thermal power and hydropower) in the Shagohuang wind and solar power base. The constraint processing module is used to import and process at least one of the following constraints: power balance constraints, system reserve capacity constraints, conventional unit output constraints, conventional unit ramping constraints, new energy output constraints, and external power transmission constraints, and input the processed constraints into the time-series production simulation module. The absorption space calculation module is used to calculate the theoretical maximum absorption space of new energy based on the load curve of the desert area and the minimum technical output curve of conventional units in the power system. The pre-evaluation output module is used to output the amount of renewable energy consumed in the desert, the amount of power curtailed, the curtailment rate, and optimization suggestions for consumption strategies based on the optimization results of the time-series production simulation module and the calculation results of the consumption space calculation module.

2. The pre-assessment system for the consumption of new energy in desert areas based on time-series production simulation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The objective function of the mathematical optimization model constructed by the time-series production simulation module is: P1 t Indicates the load value. This represents the output value of the j-th hydropower unit. Let m represent the output value of the i-th thermal power unit, m be the total number of hydropower units, and n be the total number of thermal power units.

3. The pre-assessment system for the consumption of new energy in desert areas based on time-series production simulation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The constraint processing module handles the following power unit output constraints: for back-pressure units, the electrical output is proportional to the thermal output; for extraction units, the electrical output is floating when the thermal output is fixed; and the power unit output satisfies the following conditions: P down ≤P f ≤P up ; P down P represents the minimum technical output of a thermal power unit. up P represents the rated output power. f This represents the actual output value of the thermal power unit.

4. The pre-assessment system for the consumption of new energy in desert areas based on time-series production simulation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The constraint processing module handles the following constraints for hydropower unit output: summer hydropower unit output is its rated power, and winter hydropower unit output is 20%-30% of summer output, and the hydropower unit output satisfies: 0≤P wa ≤P up ; P wa P represents the output value of the hydropower unit. up This indicates the rated output value.

5. The pre-assessment system for the consumption of new energy in desert areas based on time-series production simulation according to claim 1, characterized in that, The system reserve capacity constraint processed by the constraint processing module satisfies: S≥P maxl ×(l%+s%)+P prc ×w%+P r ; Where S represents the system's required reserve capacity, and P maxl The forecasted maximum load is represented by 1%, which represents the load reserve percentage, typically 2%-5%, S% represents the contingency reserve percentage, typically 5%-10%, w% represents the reserve capacity requirement due to the error in the predicted output of new energy sources, and P... prc P represents the predicted power of new energy sources. r This represents the maintenance reserve capacity.

6. The pre-assessment system for the consumption of new energy in desert areas based on time-series production simulation according to claim 1, characterized in that, The constraint processing module processes the following climbing constraints for thermal power units: upward climbing constraint P. g(t) -P g(t-1) ≤P g-up Downhill constraint P g(t-1) -P g(t) ≤P g-down , where P g-up P represents the uphill gradient rate of a thermal power unit. g-down P represents the downward ramp rate of the thermal power unit, t represents time, and P represents the downward ramp rate. g(t) This represents the technical output of the thermal power unit at time t.

7. The pre-assessment system for the consumption of new energy in desert areas based on time-series production simulation according to claim 1, characterized in that, The constraint processing module processes the new energy output constraints, including wind power output constraints. Photovoltaic output constraints In the formula: This represents the rated output of the photovoltaic system. This represents the rated output of wind power.

8. The pre-assessment system for the consumption of new energy in desert areas based on time-series production simulation according to claim 1, characterized in that, The prerequisite for the calculation module of the absorption space to calculate the maximum absorption space of new energy theory is that the power system has no safety constraints in the generation, transmission, distribution, transformation and consumption links, no output constraints under the N-1 principle of accidents, no cross-sectional overload, and meets the dynamic balance of generator set and load consumption, the safety of interconnection line channels and the reserve of emergency backup.

9. A pre-assessment system for the consumption of new energy in desert areas based on time-series production simulation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, It also includes a scenario simulation submodule, which is used to simulate the new energy consumption scenarios in the desert under different combinations of "new wind and solar power ratio", "production sequence" and "new energy utilization rate", and feeds back the scenario simulation results to the pre-evaluation output module. The benchmark target for the new energy utilization rate simulated by the scenario simulation submodule is above 95%.

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