Response time uncertainty-considered flight path prediction method and system

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of air traffic management, in particular to a flight path prediction method and system considering response time uncertainty, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining a conflict resolution recommended flight path which comprises an initial deflection point position, an initial deflection course, a return deflection point position and a target point position; acquiring the maneuvering state of the aircraft, wherein the maneuvering state comprises the current position, flight speed and flight course of the aircraft; determining a flied track of the current aircraft according to the position and the flight course of the current aircraft; performing classification judgment based on the flied track and the initial deflection point position to obtain a predicted track; according to the invention, the accuracy of track prediction under the condition of uncertain response time can be improved.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of air traffic management, in particular to a flight path prediction method and system considering response time uncertainty. BACKGROUND

[0002] Flight path prediction is a core technology to ensure flight safety and operational efficiency, which aims to predict the future flight path by fully considering various types of uncertainty factors during flight, so as to detect potential conflicts in advance. Accurate prediction of flight path is the basis for flight conflict detection and resolution. For the problem of uncertainty, existing researches mainly focus on the flight path deviation caused by meteorological disturbances (such as wind speed and direction changes, turbulence) or navigation positioning errors (such as inertial drift, satellite observation noise), which are usually modeled as random noise by using Gaussian process, Bayesian framework or Monte Carlo sampling method, and the prediction results with probability confidence interval are output.

[0003] However, such methods have obvious limitations. In the conflict detection and resolution scenario, the flight path evolution is not only affected by physical disturbances, but also significantly affected by uncertainty factors such as controller instructions, pilot operations and air-ground communication responses. Existing methods often cannot effectively model and quantify the time delay and uncertainty caused by air-ground communication and interaction, resulting in a deviation between the prediction results and the actual flight trajectory. In the high dynamic conflict resolution scenario, this deviation may bring potential operational safety risks.

[0004] In summary, at least the following problems exist in the prior art: 1. The existing flight path prediction model lacks modeling of human-machine interaction and air-ground communication response; 2. The disturbance model based on traditional probability theory cannot accurately describe the non-Gaussian and non-stationary statistical characteristics of human-machine interaction and communication time uncertainty; 3. The uncertainty propagation and amplification effect caused by air-ground communication time is ignored. SUMMARY

[0005] In view of the above problems, the present application provides a flight path prediction method and system considering response time uncertainty, which solves the technical problem of inaccurate prediction of flight path in the prior art.

[0006] In one aspect, the present application provides a flight path prediction method considering response time uncertainty, comprising the following steps: Step S1, obtaining a conflict resolution recommended flight path, the conflict resolution recommended flight path comprising: an initial deflection point position, an initial deflection heading, a return deflection point position and a target point position; Step S2, obtaining an aircraft maneuvering state, including the position, flight speed and flight heading of the current aircraft; Step S3, determining the flown flight path of the current aircraft according to the position and flight heading of the current aircraft; Step S4, making a classification judgment based on the flown track and the initial deflection point position, to obtain a predicted track, specifically including: Category 1, if the aircraft in the flown track has not started deflection, setting the predicted track as the conflict resolution recommended track; Category 2, if the aircraft in the flown track has deflected before crossing the initial deflection point, determining a first predicted return deflection point position according to the initial deflection heading, the actual initial deflection point position and the flight speed, and obtaining the predicted track from the first predicted return deflection point position; Category 3, if the aircraft in the flown track has crossed the initial deflection point, determining a second predicted return deflection point position according to the current aircraft position, the initial deflection heading, the actual initial deflection point position and the flight speed, and obtaining the predicted track from the second predicted return deflection point position.

[0007] Preferably, in step S1, the current aircraft position, the initial deflection point position, the return deflection point position and the target point position are sequentially connected to form the conflict resolution recommended track.

[0008] Preferably, in step S3, the flown track specifically includes the following cases: (1) the aircraft has not started deflection; (2) the aircraft has deflected before crossing the initial deflection point; (3) the aircraft has crossed the initial deflection point but has not started deflection; (4) the aircraft has crossed the initial deflection point and has deflected.

[0009] Preferably, for Category 2 in step S4, the step of obtaining the predicted track specifically includes: Category 2-1, if the aircraft has performed the first deflection before reaching the initial deflection point and has not completed the second deflection before reaching the return deflection point , obtaining the position of the first predicted return deflection point according to the first condition, the first condition being:

[0010]

[0011] wherein, wherein is the predicted return deflection point, denotes the actual initial deflection point, denotes the target point, denotes the initial deflection heading, denotes the length of the line segment between two points; the position of the first predicted return deflection point satisfying the first condition is as the first predicted return deflection point; The predicted track is set as: the current position of the aircraft to the first predicted return deflection point, and then to the target point. Category 2-2, if the position of the first predicted return deflection point has been obtained, and the second deflection has been completed before reaching the first predicted return deflection point, the predicted track is set as: the current position of the aircraft to the target point. Category 2-3, if the position of the first predicted return deflection point has been obtained, and the second deflection has not been made after reaching the first predicted return deflection point and sailing for a distance, the predicted track is set as: the current position of the aircraft to the target point. Category 2-4, if the position of the first predicted return deflection point has been obtained, and the second deflection has been made after reaching the first predicted return deflection point and sailing for a distance, the predicted track is set as: the current position of the aircraft to the target point.

[0012] Preferably, for the category 3 in step S4, the step of obtaining the predicted track specifically comprises: Category 3-1, if the aircraft has crossed the initial deflection point without performing deflection , and the first deflection has not been made, the position of the second predicted return deflection point is obtained according to a second condition, the second condition being:

[0013]

[0014] wherein, is the current position of the aircraft; the position satisfying the second condition as the second predicted return deflection point; The predicted track is set as: the current position of the aircraft to the second predicted return deflection point, and then to the target point. Category 3-2, if the aircraft has crossed the initial deflection point without performing deflection , and the first deflection has been made, the position of the second predicted return deflection point is obtained according to a third condition, the third condition being:

[0015]

[0016] the position satisfying the third condition as the second predicted return deflection point; The predicted track is set as: the current position of the aircraft to the second predicted return deflection point, and then to the target point. Category 3-3, if the position of the second predicted return deflection point has been obtained and the second deflection has been completed before reaching the second predicted return deflection point, the predicted track is set as: the current position of the aircraft to the target point; Category 3-4, if the position of the second predicted return deflection point has been obtained and the second deflection has not been made after reaching the second predicted return deflection point and sailing for a distance, the predicted track is set as: the current position of the aircraft to the target point; Category 3-5, if the position of the second predicted return deflection point has been obtained and the second deflection has been made after reaching the second predicted return deflection point and sailing for a distance, the predicted track is set as: the current position of the aircraft to the target point.

[0017] In one aspect, the application provides a track prediction system considering response time uncertainty, comprising: A conflict resolution recommended track acquisition module is configured to acquire a conflict resolution recommended track, wherein the conflict resolution recommended track comprises an initial deflection point position, an initial deflection heading, a return deflection point position and a target point position. An aircraft maneuvering state acquisition module is configured to acquire an aircraft maneuvering state, including a current position of the aircraft, a flight speed and a flight heading. An already flown track determination module is configured to determine an already flown track of the current aircraft according to the current position of the aircraft and the flight heading. A track prediction module is configured to make a classification judgment based on the already flown track and the initial deflection point position to obtain a predicted track, specifically comprising: Category 1, if the aircraft has not started deflection in the already flown track, the predicted track is set as the conflict resolution recommended track; Category 2, if the aircraft has deflected before crossing the initial deflection point in the already flown track, a first predicted return deflection point position is determined according to the initial deflection heading, the actual initial deflection point position and the flight speed, and the predicted track is obtained from the first predicted return deflection point position. Category 3, if the aircraft has crossed the initial deflection point in the already flown track, a second predicted return deflection point position is determined according to the current position of the aircraft, the initial deflection heading, the actual initial deflection point position and the flight speed, and the predicted track is obtained from the second predicted return deflection point position.

[0018] Compared with the prior art, the application has at least the following beneficial effects: (1) The application considers the uncertainty of air-ground communication response time in track prediction, provides a prediction method covering ten possible maneuvering scenarios, and makes the prediction result more truly reflect the influence of control instruction delay and pilot execution uncertainty on flight track in actual operation.

[0019] (2) The application can ensure that the track prediction is always directed to the original target waypoint or sector exit, and also gives corresponding predicted trajectories for various cases of executed or unexecuted instructions at different deflection points, greatly improving the accuracy and robustness of conflict detection.

[0020] (3) Compared with the traditional prediction method based on idealized assumptions, the application effectively avoids the prediction deviation caused by ignoring the response time uncertainty, improves the executability and reliability of the conflict resolution scheme, and better meets the dual requirements of real-time dynamic prediction and high safety of air traffic control. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0021] The accompanying drawings are only for the purpose of illustrating specific embodiments and are not considered as limiting the application.

[0022] Figure 1 The predicted track schematic diagram provided by the application for the first to third cases of the relative position of the aircraft and the deflection point.

[0023] Figure 2 The predicted track schematic diagram provided by the application for the fourth to sixth cases of the relative position of the aircraft and the deflection point.

[0024] Figure 3 The predicted track schematic diagram provided by the application for the seventh to ninth cases of the relative position of the aircraft and the deflection point.

[0025] Figure 4 The predicted track schematic diagram provided by the application for the tenth case of the relative position of the aircraft and the deflection point.

[0026] Figure 5 The flowchart of the track prediction method considering the response time uncertainty provided by the application.

[0027] Figure 6 The structural block diagram of the track prediction system considering the response time uncertainty provided by the application.

[0028] Reference signs: conflict resolution recommended track acquisition module-101, aircraft maneuvering state acquisition module-102, flown track determination module-103, track prediction module-104. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0029] To better understand the above-described objectives, features, and advantages of the present invention, the invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. It should be noted that, unless otherwise specified, the embodiments of the present invention and the features thereof can be combined with each other. Furthermore, the present invention can be implemented in other ways different from those described herein; therefore, the scope of protection of the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.

[0030] During operation, to avoid potential aircraft conflicts, aircraft typically need to perform deflection maneuvers such as heading deflection under the guidance of air traffic controllers. Conflict avoidance is mainly achieved through heading deflection, without adjusting flight speed or altitude, or changing the original planned waypoint or sector exit point. For example... Figure 1 As shown in (a), the entire conflict avoidance process typically requires two communications between the controller and the aircraft, one to guide the aircraft at the initial deflection point. Deviation from the planned path to avoid obstacles, and returning to the deflection point. The course was readjusted, and the route returned to the planned target waypoint.

[0031] In actual operation, due to the uncertainty of controller decision-making and communication response time, when an aircraft intends to avoid a conflict by following the system's recommended detour route, its predicted trajectory will be more complex than a direct flight path. This is because the recommended detour route typically consists of two key deflection points: the initial deflection point and the... and return deflection point These refer to the starting point for deviating from the planned flight path to avoid a conflict and the point where the course is readjusted to revert to the planned target waypoint, respectively. In practice, aircraft cannot guarantee that they will deviate from the system's recommended path. and The deflection must be executed accurately at all times. There may be uncertainty in both deflection points, and the uncertainty of the initial deflection point will further propagate to the return deflection point.

[0032] To address the above problems, this invention provides a trajectory prediction method and system that considers response time uncertainty. It takes into account trajectory deviations caused by uncertainties in human-machine interaction and air-to-ground communication, improving the accuracy and adaptability of trajectory prediction. Specifically, when an automated conflict resolution system recommends detour measures, this invention comprehensively considers the randomness of the aircraft's actual execution of deflection commands, achieving dynamic modeling of trajectory changes caused by heading deflection. The trajectory prediction is divided into 10 cases, meticulously depicting the trajectory change process caused by actual communication and response delays. This ensures that after avoiding potential conflicts, the aircraft can still fly towards the planned target waypoint or sector exit point, thereby improving the effectiveness of conflict detection and resolution.

[0033] To illustrate the effectiveness of the method of the present application, the above technical solutions of the present application are described in detail below through a specific embodiment. A specific embodiment of the present application is shown in FIG. 1, which discloses a track prediction method considering response time uncertainty, and the specific implementation steps are as follows: Figure 5 Step S1, obtaining a conflict resolution recommended track, the conflict resolution recommended track including: an initial deflection point position, an initial deflection heading, a return deflection point position, and a target point position; In this step, the present application first obtains a conflict resolution recommended track. The conflict resolution recommended track can be generated by an existing conflict detection and resolution system. For example, the position, heading, altitude, and other parameters between the current aircraft track and adjacent aircraft or obstacles can be monitored and analyzed in real time to determine the time and space region where a conflict is likely to occur, and then a reasonable initial deflection point, initial deflection heading, and return deflection point position can be designed to ultimately generate a recommended track scheme that avoids conflicts and reaches the target point.

[0034] The present application does not limit the specific implementation of obtaining a conflict resolution recommended track. Any algorithm that can reasonably generate a track scheme with an initial deflection point, initial deflection heading, return deflection point, and target point based on conflict detection results is within the scope of protection of the present application. In specific implementation, a track generation algorithm and decision model suitable for the actual application scenario can be selected, either a self-developed algorithm module or an existing third-party track resolution module can be used.

[0035] The conflict resolution recommended track of the present application includes: an initial deflection point position, an initial deflection heading, a return deflection point position, and a target point position. Connecting the current aircraft position, initial deflection point position, return deflection point position, and target point position in turn, the conflict resolution recommended track of the present application is obtained.

[0036] Step S2, obtaining an aircraft deflection state, including the position, flight speed, and flight heading of the current aircraft; In some embodiments, the real-time position, speed, and heading information of the aircraft is mainly transmitted to the air traffic control automation system through secondary radar (Mode S), ADS-B broadcast, and multi-lateration (MLAT) monitoring means, providing reliable data support for subsequent track planning and conflict resolution decision-making.

[0037] Step S3, determining the flown track of the current aircraft according to the position and flight heading of the current aircraft; ​In this step, the flown track of the current aircraft is determined according to the current position and flight heading of the aircraft. The flown track refers to the historical moving path continuously formed based on the state parameters such as the real-time recorded position and flight heading of the aircraft since takeoff or the start point of the current mission segment. In actual application, the form of the flown track may be different due to the different relationships between the aircraft and the recommended track and deflection behaviors. Specifically, the following situations may occur: (1) The aircraft has not started deflection: At this time, the aircraft strictly flies along the originally planned straight path, and has not reached the initial deflection point. The flown track is a trajectory that advances along the recommended path in a straight line or a specified curved path from the start point.

[0038] (2) The aircraft has deflected before crossing the initial deflection point and has flown a distance after deflection (may have a second deflection): In this case, a turning point deviating from the planned route appears in the flown track. That is, the aircraft deviates in advance due to some reasons before reaching the initial deflection point, at which time a deflection is generated in the trajectory before the initial deflection point, and then the aircraft flies a distance along the new heading. If a second deflection occurs during flight, a second turning point also appears in the trajectory, and the trajectory continues to extend in the direction of the second deflection.

[0039] (3) The aircraft has crossed the initial deflection point but has not started deflection: At this time, it can be observed on the flown track that the aircraft has crossed the deflection point along the initial route according to the recommended track, and still maintains the same heading. The trajectory is a continuous path that passes through the initial deflection point and still goes straight along the original route.

[0040] (4) The aircraft has crossed the initial deflection point and has deflected, and has flown a distance after deflection (may have a second deflection): In this case, the flown track generates a turning after crossing the initial deflection point. The aircraft deflects in the recommended deflection direction after the turning, and the trajectory extends along the new heading after the turning point; if a new deflection occurs thereafter, a second turning point also appears on the trajectory, and the trajectory continues to extend in the direction of the second deflection.

[0041] In summary, the flown track can reflect the actions of the aircraft in the actual execution process, including whether the recommended deflection point and deflection heading are adjusted, and the actual outstanding turning points and continuous segments, which are helpful for subsequent trajectory correction and conflict resolution scheme evaluation.

[0042] Step S4, based on the flown track and the position of the initial deflection point, a classification judgment is made to obtain a predicted track, specifically including: (1) If the aircraft has not started deflection in the flown track, the predicted track is set as the conflict resolution recommended track. (2) If the aircraft has deflected before crossing the initial deflection point in the flown track, a first predicted return deflection point is determined based on the initial deflection heading, the actual initial deflection point position, and the flight speed, and a predicted track is obtained from the first predicted return deflection point; (3) If the aircraft has crossed the initial deflection point in the flown track, a second predicted return deflection point is determined based on the current position of the aircraft, the initial deflection heading, the actual initial deflection point position, and the flight speed, and a predicted track is obtained from the second predicted return deflection point.

[0043] In the above steps, the classification judgment is divided into three categories, and in the specific implementation process, the present application further judges the subdivision of each category. Specifically, the present application judges the following ten states according to the position of the previous aircraft, the flight speed, and the return deflection point position, and returns the corresponding predicted track. The ten cases are as follows: Category 1: (a) If the aircraft has not reached the recommended initial deflection point and has not completed the first deflection, the predicted track of the aircraft is completely consistent with the recommended track, and the predicted track is set to the conflict resolution recommended track, as shown in (a) of Figure 1 .

[0044] Category 2: (b) If the aircraft has performed the first deflection before reaching the recommended initial deflection point and has not completed the second deflection before reaching the return deflection point , the position of the first predicted return deflection point can be obtained according to the known conditions, and the predicted track will extend to the original target waypoint through the predicted return deflection point .

[0045] Specifically, as shown in (b) of Figure 1 , represents the actual initial deflection point, represents the target point.

[0046] The first predicted return deflection point is obtained according to the following conditions: The initial deflection heading is , i.e.: , and the speed remains unchanged during flight, , , , and are known information, and the position of is obtained according to the following conditions:

[0047]

[0048] wherein, wherein is the predicted return deflection point, represents the actual initial deflection point, , are the initial deflection point and the return deflection point, respectively, represents the target point, represents the initial deflection heading, represents the length of the line segment between two points.

[0049] By the above steps, the present application ensures that the aircraft reaches the first predicted return deflection point and the return deflection point in the conflict resolution recommended track with the same distance, and since the speed remains unchanged during flight, the present application ensures that the aircraft reaches the first predicted return deflection point and the return deflection point in the conflict resolution recommended track at the same time.

[0050] (c) On the basis of case (b), a second deflection is completed before reaching the predicted return deflection point , and the predicted trajectory is directed from the current position directly to the originally planned target waypoint or sector exit point, as shown in Figure 1 (c), represents the actual return deflection point.

[0051] (d) On the basis of case (b), the aircraft does not perform a deflection when passing through the predicted return deflection point , and it is considered that a heading deflection will be performed immediately at any time afterwards, so the predicted trajectory will always be directed to the target waypoint or sector exit point from any current position. Specifically, as shown in Figure 2 (d).

[0052] (e) On the basis of case (d), if the aircraft has performed a deflection after passing through the predicted return deflection point , the heading of the predicted trajectory will be directed to the originally planned target waypoint or sector exit point. Specifically, as shown in Figure 2 (e).

[0053] Type 3: (f) If the aircraft has passed through the recommended initial deflection point without performing a deflection, since the heading deflection is , the aircraft is expected to reach the second predicted return deflection point at the same time as it would have reached the return deflection point according to the original plan. Since the flight speed remains unchanged, in this step, the present application determines the time at which the aircraft will reach the return deflection point , , and Generate a predicted return deflection point , the predicted trajectory will point to the predicted return deflection point , and pass through the point, then continue to fly to the target waypoint or sector exit point. Specifically, as shown in (f) in Figure 2 , , , and are known information, this step reverses the position of according to the following conditions:

[0054]

[0055] wherein, is the current position of the aircraft.

[0056] In the above way, it is also ensured that the aircraft reaches the second predicted return deflection point and the return deflection point in the conflict resolution recommended track at the same time.

[0057] (g) On the basis of case (f), if the aircraft subsequently performs a deflection at , but has not yet reached the recommended , and has not completed the deflection, since the deflection heading is , the time to reach is still the recommended time to reach , and the flight speed remains unchanged, a predicted return deflection point is generated, the predicted trajectory passes through the predicted return deflection point point and continues to fly to the target waypoint. Specifically, as shown in (g) in Figure 3 , 、 、 and are known information, this step reverses the position of according to the following conditions:

[0058]

[0059] In the above way, it is also ensured that the aircraft reaches the second predicted return deflection point and the return deflection point in the conflict resolution recommended track at the same time.

[0060] (h) On the basis of case (g), if the aircraft reaches the predicted return deflection point If the aircraft has not yet started to turn at the time of the predicted return deflection point, the predicted track will always point directly to the target waypoint or sector exit point, as shown in (h) of FIG. 6. Figure 3

[0061] (i) Based on (g), if the aircraft has not yet turned at the time of the predicted return deflection point, the predicted track will always point directly to the target waypoint or sector exit point, as shown in (i) of FIG. 6. Figure 3

[0062] (j) Based on (i), if the aircraft has not yet turned at the time of the predicted return deflection point, the predicted track will always point directly to the target waypoint or sector exit point, as shown in (j) of FIG. 6. Figure 4

[0063] The present application also provides a track prediction system considering response time uncertainty, as shown in FIG. 7, comprising the following modules: Figure 6 A conflict resolution recommended track acquisition module 101, configured to acquire a conflict resolution recommended track, wherein the conflict resolution recommended track comprises an initial deflection point position, an initial deflection heading, a return deflection point position, and a target point position. An aircraft maneuver state acquisition module 102, configured to acquire an aircraft maneuver state, comprising a current aircraft position, a flight speed, and a flight heading. A flown track determination module 103, configured to determine a flown track of the current aircraft according to the current aircraft position and the flight heading. A track prediction module 104, configured to determine a predicted track based on a classification of the flown track and the initial deflection point position, and specifically comprising: Category 1, if the aircraft has not yet started to turn in the flown track, the predicted track is set as the conflict resolution recommended track. Category 2, if the aircraft has turned before crossing the initial deflection point in the flown track, a first predicted return deflection point position is determined according to the initial deflection heading, the actual initial deflection point position, and the flight speed, and the predicted track is determined based on the first predicted return deflection point position. Category 3, if the aircraft has crossed the initial deflection point in the flown track, a second predicted return deflection point position is determined according to the current aircraft position, the initial deflection heading, the actual initial deflection point position, and the flight speed, and the predicted track is determined based on the second predicted return deflection point position.

[0064] ​​​​​​The specific generation of the predicted track in all cases is described above. In the track prediction method proposed by the present application, the track deviation caused by human-computer interaction and air-ground response uncertainty is considered. Since conflict avoidance in the present application is achieved only by heading deflection, without changing the flight speed and height, and without modifying the originally planned target waypoint or sector exit point; it can avoid the prediction deviation and conflict missed report caused by ignoring the response time uncertainty, thereby improving the executability and reliability of the conflict resolution scheme, meeting the dual needs of dynamic prediction and high safety in real-time air traffic control operation.

[0065] The detailed description of the application, although it describes various actions or steps in a particular order, should be understood that such actions or steps are not required to be performed in the particular order shown or in sequential order, or that all illustrated actions or steps are required to be performed to achieve the desired results. In certain circumstances, multitasking and parallel processing can be advantageous. Similarly, although specific implementation details are included in the above discussion, these should not be interpreted as limiting the scope of the disclosure. Certain features described in the context of separate embodiments can also be combined in a single implementation. Conversely, various features described in the context of a single implementation can also be implemented separately or in any suitable subcombination. The above description is merely the preferred specific embodiments of the present application, but the scope of protection of the present application is not limited thereto, and any changes or replacements within the scope of the technology disclosed by the present application can be easily thought of by those skilled in the art, which should be covered within the scope of protection of the present application.

[0066] The above description is merely the preferred specific embodiments of the present application, but the scope of protection of the present application is not limited thereto, and any changes or replacements within the scope of the technology disclosed by the present application can be easily thought of by those skilled in the art, which should be covered within the scope of protection of the present application.

Claims

1. A trajectory prediction method considering response time uncertainty, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: Step S1: Obtain the conflict resolution recommended track, which includes: initial deflection point position, initial deflection heading, return deflection point position, and target point position; Step S2: Obtain the aircraft's maneuver status, including the current position, speed, and heading of the aircraft; Step S3: Determine the current flight path of the aircraft based on its current position and flight heading; Step S4: Based on the already flown track and the position of the initial deflection point, classify and determine the predicted track, specifically including: Category 1: If the aircraft has not yet begun to deviate in the already flown track, the predicted track will be set as the conflict resolution recommended track. Category 2: If the aircraft has already deflected before passing the initial deflection point in the flight path, the first predicted return deflection point position is determined based on the initial deflection heading, the actual initial deflection point position, and the flight speed. The predicted flight path is obtained from the first predicted return deflection point position. Category 3: If the aircraft has passed the initial deflection point in the flight path, the second predicted return deflection point position is determined based on the aircraft's current position, initial deflection heading, actual initial deflection point position, and flight speed. The predicted flight path is obtained from the second predicted return deflection point position.

2. The trajectory prediction method considering response time uncertainty according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S1, the current aircraft position, the initial deflection point position, the return deflection point position, and the target point position are connected sequentially to form the conflict resolution recommended flight path.

3. The trajectory prediction method considering response time uncertainty according to claim 2, characterized in that, In step S3, the flight track specifically includes the following situations: (1) The aircraft has not yet begun to deflect; (2) The aircraft deflected before it had passed the initial deflection point; (3) The aircraft passed the initial deflection point but did not begin to deflect; (4) The aircraft has passed the initial deflection point and has deflected.

4. The trajectory prediction method considering response time uncertainty according to claim 3, characterized in that, For category 2 mentioned in step S4, the steps to obtain the predicted trajectory specifically include: Category 2-1, if the aircraft reaches the initial deflection point The initial deflection was performed earlier, and the return deflection point was reached. If the second deflection has not yet been completed, the position of the first predicted deflection point is obtained based on the first condition. The first condition is: in, To predict the return deflection point, Indicates the actual initial deflection point. Indicates the target point. Indicates the initial deflection heading. This represents the length of a line segment between two points; Will satisfy the first condition As the first prediction return deflection point; The predicted trajectory is set as follows: from the aircraft's current position to the first predicted return deflection point, and then to the target point; Category 2-2: If the position of the first predicted return deflection point has been obtained, and the second deflection has been completed before reaching the first predicted return deflection point, then the predicted trajectory is set to: aircraft current position to target point; Category 2-3: If the position of the first predicted return deflection point has been obtained, and no second deflection is made after reaching the first predicted return deflection point and traveling a certain distance, then the predicted trajectory is set to: the aircraft's current position to the target point; Category 2-4: If the position of the first predicted return deflection point has been obtained, and a second deflection has been performed after reaching the first predicted return deflection point and traveling a certain distance, then the predicted trajectory is set to: aircraft current position to target point.

5. The trajectory prediction method considering response time uncertainty according to claim 4, characterized in that, For category 3 mentioned in step S4, the steps to obtain the predicted trajectory specifically include: Category 3-1: If the aircraft crosses the initial deflection point without performing a deflection maneuver. If no initial deflection has occurred, then the position of the second predicted deflection point is obtained based on the second condition. The second condition is: in, This is the aircraft's current location. The second condition will be met. As the second prediction return deflection point; The predicted trajectory is set as follows: from the aircraft's current position to the second predicted return deflection point, and then to the target point; Category 3-2: If the aircraft crosses the initial deflection point without performing a deflection maneuver. Since the first deflection has already been performed, the position of the second predicted deflection point is obtained according to the third condition. The third condition is: The third condition will be met. As the second prediction return deflection point; The predicted trajectory is set as follows: from the aircraft's current position to the second predicted return deflection point, and then to the target point; Category 3-3: If the position of the second predicted return deflection point has been obtained, and the second deflection has been completed before reaching the second predicted return deflection point, then the predicted trajectory is set to: aircraft current position to target point; Category 3-4: If the position of the second predicted return deflection point has been obtained, and no second deflection is performed after reaching the second predicted return deflection point and traveling a certain distance, then the predicted trajectory is set to: aircraft current position to target point; Category 3-5: If the position of the second predicted return deflection point has been obtained, and a second deflection has been performed after reaching the second predicted return deflection point and traveling a certain distance, then the predicted trajectory is set to: aircraft current position to target point.

6. A trajectory prediction system considering response time uncertainty, characterized in that, Includes the following modules: The conflict resolution recommended trajectory acquisition module is used to acquire a conflict resolution recommended trajectory, which includes: initial deflection point position, initial deflection heading, return deflection point position, and target point position; The aircraft maneuvering status acquisition module is used to acquire the aircraft's maneuvering status, including the current position, speed, and heading of the aircraft. The flight track determination module is used to determine the current flight track of the aircraft based on its current position and flight heading. The trajectory prediction module is used to classify and determine the predicted trajectory based on the already flown trajectory and the position of the initial deflection point, specifically including: Category 1: If the aircraft has not yet begun to deviate in the already flown track, the predicted track will be set as the conflict resolution recommended track. Category 2: If the aircraft has already deflected before passing the initial deflection point in the flight path, the first predicted return deflection point position is determined based on the initial deflection heading, the actual initial deflection point position, and the flight speed. The predicted flight path is obtained from the first predicted return deflection point position. Category 3: If the aircraft has passed the initial deflection point in the flight path, the second predicted return deflection point position is determined based on the aircraft's current position, initial deflection heading, actual initial deflection point position, and flight speed. The predicted flight path is obtained from the second predicted return deflection point position.

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