Natural gas power generation benefit evaluation method and system based on carbon transaction and hydrogen-doped power generation

Abstract

The invention relates to a natural gas power generation benefit evaluation method and system based on carbon transaction and hydrogen-doped power generation. The method comprises the steps of obtaining evaluation data of a natural gas power generation project; predicting the total cost, total income and economic evaluation indexes of the project; calculating the total carbon emission amount of the project, judging whether the total carbon emission amount exceeds a preset carbon emission amount, if so, purchasing the carbon emission amount or reducing the carbon emission amount through hydrogen-doped power generation, and if not, selling the carbon emission amount; if the carbon emission needs to be reduced through hydrogen-doped power generation, calculating the carbon emission and the hydrogen-doped cost under the original hydrogen-doped proportion, adjusting the hydrogen-doped proportion until the cost is minimum, and adding the cost into the total cost of the project; and calculating the yield of the natural gas power generation project, and evaluating the natural gas power generation benefit. The problem that the profitability of the project adapting to the development trend of the low-carbon market cannot be accurately reflected due to the fact that the influence of future low-carbon market influence factors on the project economy is not considered in the early-stage investment decision-making of an existing natural gas power generation project is solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to a method and system for evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending, belonging to the field of natural gas power generation technology. Background Technology

[0002] The energy structure will eventually shift towards low-carbon and high-proportion renewable energy. Currently, my country is controlling carbon emissions from the power sector, especially thermal power, through diversified means. Gas-fired power generation, as one of the thermal power sources, has also become a key area of ​​focus for reducing carbon emissions. The carbon trading market, as a low-cost market-based means of emission reduction, is gradually becoming an effective tool for achieving carbon neutrality. With the development of hydrogen energy technology, hydrogen, with its high calorific value, can improve the power generation efficiency of the mixed fuel when mixed with natural gas, thereby effectively reducing carbon emissions. Based on the experience of developed countries, the total carbon quota control in the domestic carbon trading market will become stricter in the future, and it will be more difficult for power generation companies to obtain free carbon quotas. Gas-fired power generation companies cannot ignore the impact of carbon costs on their costs and revenues when participating in carbon and electricity market transactions.

[0003] When conducting economic evaluations for existing natural gas power generation projects during the initial investment decision-making phase, only power generation costs and revenues are typically considered. However, with the changing low-carbon market environment driven by dual carbon targets, the impact of new technologies and factors such as carbon market trading and hydrogen blending on the economic benefits of natural gas power generation projects cannot be ignored. Currently, the economic evaluation methods and modeling for such projects do not comprehensively consider both factors, leading to uncertainty regarding the future economic benefits of newly constructed natural gas power generation projects. Summary of the Invention

[0004] To address the aforementioned problems, the purpose of this invention is to provide a method and system for evaluating the profitability of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending. This method solves the problem that existing natural gas power generation projects fail to consider the impact of future low-carbon market factors on project economics in the early investment decision-making process, thus failing to accurately reflect the project's profitability in adapting to the development trend of the low-carbon market.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention proposes the following technical solution: a method for evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending, comprising the following steps: obtaining evaluation data of a natural gas power generation project; predicting the total cost, total revenue, and economic evaluation indicators of the project based on the evaluation data; calculating the total carbon emissions of the project based on the evaluation data, determining whether the total carbon emissions exceed the preset carbon emission limit, and if so, purchasing carbon emission allowances or reducing carbon emissions through hydrogen blending; otherwise, selling carbon emission allowances, adding the cost of purchasing carbon emission allowances to the total cost of the project, and adding the revenue from selling carbon emission allowances to the total revenue of the project; if it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions through hydrogen blending, calculating the carbon emissions and hydrogen blending cost under the original hydrogen blending ratio, adjusting the hydrogen blending ratio until the sum of the hydrogen blending cost and the cost of carbon emissions is minimized, and adding it to the total cost of the project; calculating the rate of return of the natural gas power generation project based on the total cost, total revenue, and economic evaluation indicators of the project, and evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation.

[0006] Furthermore, the evaluation data includes basic data such as market, environmental, and technical solution information for the construction project, collection of project calculation period data; fixed asset, working capital investment and other investment estimates; predicted product sales volume and annual output; predicted product prices, including recent prices and expected price fluctuations; cost and expense estimates and their composition estimates, etc., and calculates a total investment estimate table, a construction investment summary table, an investment use plan and financing table, a construction period interest estimate table, a total cost estimate table, an operating income and tax estimate table, and a working capital estimate table based on the evaluation data.

[0007] Furthermore, the economic evaluation indicators include static and dynamic indicators. The static indicators include total investment return rate, net profit margin on equity, static investment payback period, debt-to-equity ratio, interest coverage ratio, and debt service coverage ratio; calculated without considering the time value of money based on the total investment estimate table, construction investment summary table, investment utilization plan and financing table, construction period interest estimate table, total cost estimate table, operating revenue and tax estimate table, and working capital estimate table. The dynamic indicators include internal rate of return and net present value; calculated with consideration of the time value of money based on the total investment estimate table, construction investment summary table, investment utilization plan and financing table, construction period interest estimate table, total cost estimate table, operating revenue and tax estimate table, and working capital estimate table.

[0008] Furthermore, the method for calculating the total carbon emissions of the project is as follows: identify the sources of carbon emissions generated by the natural gas power generation project and clarify the carbon emission accounting boundaries; calculate the activity level of each source of carbon emissions; based on the activity level, clarify the energy consumption indicators of the project; and calculate the total annual carbon emissions of the project based on the carbon emission measurement basis and carbon emission calculation formula.

[0009] Furthermore, the method for calculating the activity level of the carbon emission sources is as follows: Based on the installed capacity of the gas turbine in the natural gas power generation project, and the hourly natural gas consumption of the gas turbine unit, the annual gas consumption of the project is calculated. Fuel consumption needs to be calculated according to the type of gas turbine used in the project. The formula for calculating the annual gas consumption of the project is: Annual gas consumption of the project = Hourly gas consumption × Annual power generation hours of the unit; The method for calculating the preset carbon emissions is as follows: Unit quota = Power generation baseline value * Unit power generation * Correction factor.

[0010] Furthermore, the carbon emission calculation formula is as follows:

[0011] Among them, E 燃烧 Emissions from natural gas combustion; FC represents natural gas consumption; CC represents the carbon content of natural gas; OF represents the carbon oxidation rate of natural gas. The formula for calculating the carbon content of natural gas is as follows:

[0012] Where V is the volume concentration of the gas component; CN n This represents the number of carbon atoms in the gaseous component.

[0013] Furthermore, the average lower heating value after hydrogen doping The calculation formula is:

[0014] Where, p H2 This refers to the hydrogen blending ratio; LHV H2 The lower heating value (LHV) of hydrogen. NG This refers to the lower heating value of natural gas. Hydrogen-doped power generation efficiency The calculation formula is:

[0015] in, For natural gas power generation efficiency; For hydrogen power generation efficiency; Unit power consumption The calculation formula is:

[0016] The formula for calculating the carbon emissions of a power plant after hydrogen blending is:

[0017] Among them, EF NGCarbon emission factor for natural gas; EF H2 The carbon emission factor of hydrogen; P total This represents the total power generation of the power plant.

[0018] Furthermore, the cost of hydrogen fuel The calculation formula is:

[0019] Reduced natural gas costs due to hydrogen blending The calculation formula is:

[0020] Among them, P H2 The market price of hydrogen; This represents the annual power generation.

[0021] Furthermore, based on the project's total cost, total revenue, and economic evaluation indicators, the method for calculating the rate of return of a natural gas power generation project is as follows: Calculate the positive costs of carbon trading and hydrogen blending power generation; determine the hydrogen fuel cost and natural gas reduction cost resulting from hydrogen blending power generation; and determine whether the sum of the carbon emission reduction from hydrogen blending power generation and the project's original carbon emissions exceeds the project's free allowance. If the project exceeds the free allowance, the excess will incur carbon costs. Therefore, the total cost of the project... The calculation formula is:

[0022] in, The cost of hydrogen fuel is due to hydrogen-blended power generation. It's the cost of carbon. The reduction in natural gas costs due to hydrogen blending; determine the total original carbon emissions of the project and the carbon emissions reduced due to hydrogen blending power generation, calculate the difference between the two. If the difference is greater than 0, calculate the carbon revenue of the project. If the difference is less than 0, carbon trading and hydrogen blending power generation do not generate positive revenue. Based on economic evaluation indicators, compare the rate of return of the project before and after considering carbon trading and hydrogen blending power generation to evaluate the benefits of natural gas power generation.

[0023] This invention discloses a natural gas power generation benefit evaluation system based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending power generation, comprising: a data acquisition module for acquiring evaluation data of natural gas power generation projects; an economic evaluation index calculation module for predicting the total cost, total revenue, and economic evaluation indicators of the project based on the evaluation data; and a carbon emission calculation module for calculating the total carbon emissions of the project based on the evaluation data, determining whether the total carbon emissions exceed a preset carbon emission limit, and if so, purchasing carbon emission allowances or reducing carbon emissions through hydrogen blending power generation; otherwise, selling carbon emission allowances, adding the cost of purchasing carbon emission allowances to the total cost of the project, and adding the revenue from selling carbon emission allowances to the total revenue of the project. The hydrogen blending power generation calculation module is used to calculate the carbon emissions and costs of the original hydrogen blending ratio if it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions through hydrogen blending power generation, and adjust the hydrogen blending ratio until the sum of the hydrogen blending cost and the carbon emission cost is minimized, and then add it to the total cost of the project; the power generation benefit evaluation module is used to calculate the rate of return of the natural gas power generation project based on the total cost, total revenue and economic evaluation indicators of the project, and evaluate the benefits of natural gas power generation.

[0024] The technical solution of the present invention has at least the following technical effects or advantages: This invention incorporates carbon and technological advancements that affect the profitability of future natural gas power generation projects into the economic evaluation process. By prioritizing low-carbon benefit assessment at the project decision-making stage, it accurately quantifies the cost impact on project implementation. This is a necessary process to improve the accuracy of project economic evaluation in the future low-carbon market and a crucial element in enhancing corporate investment decisions. Adding carbon factors and the impact of hydrogen-blended power generation to the early project evaluation stage also encourages companies to consider carbon emissions more carefully when making investment decisions, thereby increasing their motivation for emission reduction and focusing on green and low-carbon transformation to adapt to future market changes.

[0025] Introducing carbon emissions trading into the economic evaluation model of natural gas power generation projects fills the technical gap in the previous economic evaluation models of thermal power generation projects, which did not consider the impact of carbon factors on the economics of projects under the trend of low-carbon markets. This technology can quantify the cost of carbon emissions from paid use and can change with the trend of carbon price changes, thereby effectively improving the accuracy of the future returns of natural gas power generation projects.

[0026] Introducing hydrogen blending into the economic evaluation model of natural gas power generation projects fills the technological gap in previous models that did not consider the impact of technological advancements on the economic viability of projects under low-carbon market trends. This technology can quantify the benefits and costs resulting from technological advancements and examine the project's profitability trends under different hydrogen blending ratios, providing a tool for cost reduction and efficiency improvement for natural gas power generation projects from the outset. Attached Figure Description

[0027] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a method for evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending in one embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0028] To enable those skilled in the art to better understand the technical solutions of the present invention, the present invention is described in detail through specific embodiments. However, it should be understood that the specific embodiments are provided only for a better understanding of the present invention and should not be construed as limiting the present invention. In the description of the present invention, it should be understood that the terminology used is for descriptive purposes only and should not be construed as indicating or implying relative importance.

[0029] To address the problem that existing natural gas power generation projects fail to consider the impact of future low-carbon market factors on project economics during the initial investment decision-making process, thus failing to accurately reflect the profitability of projects adapting to low-carbon market development trends, this invention proposes a method and system for evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending. The method includes collecting evaluation data from natural gas power generation projects; conducting an economic evaluation of the projects based on the data; determining whether carbon trading is necessary and whether hydrogen should be introduced as a partial energy substitute for natural gas based on the carbon emissions of the projects; calculating a suitable hydrogen blending ratio based on the cost of introducing natural gas and the reduction in carbon emissions; and calculating the impact of carbon trading and hydrogen blending on the natural gas power generation projects, thereby assessing the benefits of natural gas power generation. The following detailed description of the invention, with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments, illustrates the solution in detail.

[0030] Example 1 This embodiment discloses a method for evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending, such as... Figure 1 As shown, it includes the following steps: S1 obtains evaluation data for natural gas power generation projects.

[0031] The evaluation data includes basic data such as market, environmental, and technical information of the construction project, collection of project calculation period; fixed asset, working capital investment and other investment estimates; predicted product sales volume and annual output; predicted product prices, including recent prices and expected price fluctuations; cost and expense estimates and their composition.

[0032] S2 predicts the project's total cost, total revenue, and economic evaluation indicators based on the evaluation data.

[0033] Determine the business model for the construction project, and based on the acquired basic data and calculation parameters, calculate the following in sequence: total investment estimate table, construction investment summary table, investment use plan and financing table, construction period interest estimate table, total cost estimate table, operating income and tax estimate table, and working capital estimate table.

[0034] The methods for calculating economic evaluation indicators include: Based on the evaluation data of natural gas power generation projects, calculating the economic performance evaluation indicators for power plant construction projects. These indicators include static and dynamic indicators. Static indicators include total investment return rate, net profit margin on equity, static investment payback period, debt-to-equity ratio, interest coverage ratio, and debt service coverage ratio. These indicators are calculated without considering the time value of money, based on the total investment estimate table, construction investment summary table, investment utilization plan and financing table, construction period interest estimate table, total cost estimate table, operating revenue and tax estimate table, and working capital estimate table. Dynamic indicators include: internal rate of return and net present value (NPV). These indicators are calculated with consideration of the time value of money, based on the same tables.

[0035] Based on the evaluation data, S3 calculates the total carbon emissions of the project and determines whether the total carbon emissions exceed the preset carbon emissions. If so, it purchases carbon emission credits or reduces carbon emissions by generating electricity with hydrogen. Otherwise, it adds the cost of purchasing carbon emission credits to the total cost of the project and adds the revenue from selling carbon emission credits to the total revenue of the project.

[0036] The method for calculating the total carbon emissions of a project is as follows: identify the sources of carbon emissions from natural gas power generation projects and clarify the carbon emission accounting boundary. The main sources of carbon emissions from natural gas power generation projects are fuel combustion and purchased electricity. The accounting boundary is the power generation facilities, including combustion systems, steam and water systems, electrical systems, control systems, etc. Other auxiliary production systems and ancillary production systems in the plant area are not considered for the time being. If the power plant needs to purchase additional electricity, the carbon emissions from purchased electricity also need to be considered.

[0037] The activity levels of each carbon emission source are calculated separately; based on the installed capacity of the gas turbine in the natural gas power generation project and the hourly natural gas consumption of the gas turbine unit, the annual gas consumption of the project is calculated. Fuel consumption needs to be calculated according to the type of gas turbine used in the project. The calculation formula is as follows: The project's annual gas consumption (10,000 t / a) = hourly gas consumption (Nm3 / h) * annual power generation hours of the unit (h).

[0038] Based on the activity level, the project's energy consumption indicators are defined, and the total annual carbon emissions of the project are calculated according to the carbon emission measurement basis and carbon emission calculation formula.

[0039] The pre-set carbon emission calculation method is as follows: Unit quota = Power generation baseline value * Unit power generation * Correction factor.

[0040] The formula for calculating carbon emissions is:

[0041] Among them, E 燃烧 Emissions from natural gas combustion are expressed in tons of carbon dioxide (tons of CO2); FC represents natural gas consumption for gaseous fuels, expressed in 10,000 standard cubic meters (10 4 Nm³); CC represents the carbon content of natural gas, for gaseous fuels, and the unit is tons of carbon per 10,000 standard cubic meters (tons of C / 10). 4 Nm³); OF is the carbon oxidation rate of natural gas, expressed as a percentage; 44 / 12 is the ratio of the relative molecular masses of carbon dioxide to carbon.

[0042] Based on the composition and physical properties of the natural gas sourced for the project, the volume concentration of gas components, the number of carbon atoms in the gas components, and the formula for calculating the carbon content of natural gas are derived:

[0043] Where V is the volume concentration of the gas component, %; CN n This represents the number of carbon atoms in the gaseous component.

[0044] The costs or benefits of purchasing and / or selling carbon emissions are included in the project's economic evaluation calculation table. Carbon emission costs are included in the production cost item of the total cost estimate table on an annual basis, and carbon emission revenues are included in the operating revenue and tax estimate table on an annual basis. Expenses are included in the "Total Operating Revenue" or "Total Total Cost" item. Other financial statements are updated, and then the project's economic evaluation indicators under the impact of carbon trading are calculated.

[0045] In this embodiment, the carbon emission preset amount is determined based on the quota allocation basis published by the state to determine the quota amount of each type of unit in the natural gas power generation project. The calculation formula is: unit quota amount = power generation benchmark value * unit power generation * correction coefficient; the quota amount of each type of unit is added together to obtain the total quota amount of the entire natural gas power generation project.

[0046] In this embodiment, the method for calculating the cost or benefit of purchasing and / or selling carbon emissions is as follows: Calculate the carbon quota amount for the project to be included in the national carbon emission trading system; determine the carbon emissions generated during the actual production process of the project through measurement or emission factor methods; finally, calculate the carbon emission quota gap using the following formula: Carbon emission quota gap = Actual carbon emissions of the project - Carbon emissions of the project included in the national carbon emission trading system.

[0047] The costs or benefits of purchasing and / or selling carbon emissions are calculated based on the average carbon price of the year. The formula for calculating the carbon emission costs / benefits a project needs to pay in a given year, based on the average carbon price of that year, is as follows: Carbon emission cost = Carbon emission allowance gap * Average carbon price of the year Carbon emission revenue = - Carbon emission quota gap * Average carbon price of the year.

[0048] The project's economic evaluation indicators under the influence of carbon trading are calculated, the total cost of the project before and after considering carbon emissions is compared, the comprehensive impact of carbon emissions on project costs is assessed, the total revenue of the project before and after considering carbon emissions is compared, and the comprehensive impact of carbon emissions on project revenue is assessed.

[0049] If S4 needs to reduce carbon emissions through hydrogen blending for power generation, calculate the carbon emissions and hydrogen blending costs under the original hydrogen blending ratio, adjust the hydrogen blending ratio until the sum of the hydrogen blending cost and the carbon emission cost is minimized, and add it to the total cost of the project.

[0050] Average lower heating value after hydrogen doping The calculation formula is:

[0051] Where, p H2 This refers to the hydrogen blending ratio, expressed as a decimal, for example, 20% is 0.2; LHV H2 The lower heating value (LHV) of hydrogen is given in MJ / kg. NG The lower heating value of natural gas is expressed in MJ / kg. Hydrogen-doped power generation efficiency The calculation formula is:

[0052] in, This refers to the efficiency of natural gas power generation, in 10,000 tons per kWh. This refers to the efficiency of hydrogen power generation, in 10,000 tons per kWh. Unit power consumption The calculation formula is:

[0053] The carbon emissions of a power plant after hydrogen blending are calculated using the following formula:

[0054] Among them, EF NG Carbon emission factor of natural gas, grams of CO2 per unit of fuel; EF H2 For hydrogen production, such as water electrolysis, the carbon emission factor is theoretically 0; P total This represents the total power generation of the power plant, in kWh.

[0055] The hydrogen consumption and the reduction in natural gas consumption due to hydrogen blending are calculated by determining the hydrogen blending ratio. Based on the market prices of hydrogen and natural gas in the power plant's location, the hydrogen fuel cost and the reduction in natural gas cost due to hydrogen blending are calculated separately. Hydrogen fuel cost. The calculation formula is:

[0056] Reduced natural gas costs due to hydrogen blending The calculation formula is:

[0057] Among them, P H2 The market price of hydrogen is in yuan / ton; This represents annual power generation, in kWh / a.

[0058] The change in carbon emissions of the power plant before hydrogen co-firing and the resulting costs or benefits are calculated and included in the total cost and expense table, while the natural gas feedstock cost substitution portion in the total cost and expense table is deducted.

[0059] S5 calculates the rate of return of a natural gas power generation project based on the project's total cost, total revenue, and economic evaluation indicators, and evaluates the benefits of natural gas power generation.

[0060] Based on the positive benefits and costs of carbon trading and hydrogen blending power generation, the project profitability of a natural gas power generation project considering carbon trading and hydrogen blending power generation is calculated. In this embodiment, the cost of the natural gas power generation project is the sum of hydrogen fuel gas cost, saved natural gas cost, and carbon cost. The positive benefit of the natural gas power generation project is the sum of carbon trading revenue exceeding the free allocation. Based on the determined impact of carbon trading and hydrogen blending power generation on the cost and revenue items of the natural gas power generation project, the project profitability is evaluated. Based on the project's total cost, total revenue, and economic evaluation indicators, the method for calculating the rate of return of a natural gas power generation project is as follows: Calculate the positive costs of carbon trading and hydrogen blending power generation; determine the hydrogen fuel cost and natural gas reduction cost resulting from hydrogen blending power generation; and determine whether the sum of the carbon emission reduction from hydrogen blending power generation and the project's original carbon emissions exceeds the project's free allowance. If the project exceeds the free allowance, the excess will incur carbon costs. Therefore, the total cost of the project... The calculation formula is:

[0061] in, The cost of hydrogen fuel is due to hydrogen-blended power generation. It's the cost of carbon. The reduction in natural gas costs due to hydrogen blending; determine the total original carbon emissions of the project and the carbon emissions reduced due to hydrogen blending power generation, calculate the difference between the two. If the difference is greater than 0, calculate the carbon revenue of the project. If the difference is less than 0, carbon trading and hydrogen blending power generation do not generate positive revenue. Based on economic evaluation indicators, compare the rate of return of the project before and after considering carbon trading and hydrogen blending power generation to evaluate the benefits of natural gas power generation.

[0062] Example 2 Based on the same inventive concept, this embodiment discloses a natural gas power generation benefit evaluation system based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending power generation, including: The data acquisition module is used to acquire evaluation data for natural gas power generation projects; The economic evaluation index calculation module is used to predict the total cost, total revenue, and economic evaluation index of a project based on evaluation data. The carbon emission calculation module is used to calculate the total carbon emissions of the project based on the evaluation data, and to determine whether the total carbon emissions exceed the preset carbon emission limit. If so, carbon emission allowances are purchased or carbon emissions are reduced by hydrogen co-generation. Otherwise, carbon emission allowances are sold, and the cost of purchasing carbon emission allowances is added to the total cost of the project, and the revenue from selling carbon emission allowances is added to the total revenue of the project. The hydrogen blending power generation calculation module is used to calculate the carbon emissions and hydrogen blending costs under the original hydrogen blending ratio if it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions through hydrogen blending power generation. It then adjusts the hydrogen blending ratio until the sum of the hydrogen blending cost and the carbon emission cost is minimized, and adds it to the total cost of the project. The power generation benefit evaluation module is used to calculate the rate of return of natural gas power generation projects based on the project's total cost, total revenue, and economic evaluation indicators, and to evaluate the benefits of natural gas power generation.

[0063] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of the present invention can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention can take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0064] This invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0065] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0066] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0067] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications or equivalent substitutions can still be made to the specific embodiments of the present invention. Any modifications or equivalent substitutions that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the protection scope of the claims of the present invention. The above content is only a specific embodiment of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any changes or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed in the present invention should be covered within the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention should be determined by the protection scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: Obtain evaluation data for natural gas power generation projects; Based on the evaluation data, predict the project's total cost, total revenue, and economic evaluation indicators; Based on the evaluation data, calculate the total carbon emissions of the project, determine whether the total carbon emissions exceed the preset carbon emissions, if so, purchase carbon emissions or reduce carbon emissions by generating electricity with hydrogen; otherwise, sell carbon emissions, add the cost of purchasing carbon emissions to the total cost of the project, and add the revenue from selling carbon emissions to the total revenue of the project. If it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions through hydrogen co-firing for power generation, calculate the carbon emissions and co-firing costs under the original hydrogen co-firing ratio, adjust the hydrogen co-firing ratio until the sum of the hydrogen co-firing costs and carbon emission costs is minimized, and add it to the total cost of the project. Based on the project's total cost, total revenue, and economic evaluation indicators, calculate the rate of return for the natural gas power generation project and evaluate its benefits.

2. The method for evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The evaluation data includes basic data such as market, environmental, and technical information of the construction project, collection of project calculation period data; fixed asset, working capital investment and other investment estimates; predicted product sales volume and annual output; predicted product prices, including recent prices and expected price fluctuations; cost and expense estimates and their composition estimates, etc., and calculates a total investment estimate table, a construction investment summary table, an investment use plan and financing table, a construction period interest estimate table, a total cost estimate table, an operating income and tax estimate table, and a working capital estimate table based on the evaluation data.

3. The method for evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending as described in claim 2, characterized in that, The economic evaluation indicators include static and dynamic indicators. The static indicators include total investment return rate, net profit margin on equity, static investment payback period, debt-to-equity ratio, interest coverage ratio, and debt service coverage ratio; these are calculated without considering the time value of money based on the total investment estimate table, construction investment summary table, investment utilization plan and financing table, construction period interest estimate table, total cost estimate table, operating revenue and tax estimate table, and working capital estimate table. The dynamic indicators include internal rate of return (IRR) and net present value (NPV); these are calculated with consideration of the time value of money based on the total investment estimate table, construction investment summary table, investment utilization plan and financing table, construction period interest estimate table, total cost estimate table, operating revenue and tax estimate table, and working capital estimate table.

4. The method for evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The method for calculating the total carbon emissions of the project is as follows: identify the sources of carbon emissions from the natural gas power generation project and clarify the carbon emission accounting boundaries; calculate the activity level of each source of carbon emissions; based on the activity level, clarify the energy consumption indicators of the project; and calculate the total annual carbon emissions of the project based on the carbon emission measurement basis and carbon emission calculation formula.

5. The method for evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending as described in claim 4, characterized in that, The method for calculating the activity level of the carbon emission sources is as follows: Based on the installed capacity of the gas turbine in the natural gas power generation project, and the hourly natural gas consumption of the gas turbine unit, the annual gas consumption of the project is calculated. Fuel consumption needs to be calculated according to the type of gas turbine used in the project. The formula for calculating the annual gas consumption of the project is as follows: Annual gas consumption of the project = Hourly gas consumption × Annual power generation hours of the unit; The method for calculating the preset carbon emissions is as follows: Unit quota = Power generation baseline value * Unit power generation * Correction factor.

6. The method for evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending as described in claim 5, characterized in that, The formula for calculating carbon emissions is: Among them, E 燃烧 Emissions from natural gas combustion; FC represents natural gas consumption; CC represents the carbon content of natural gas; OF represents the carbon oxidation rate of natural gas. The formula for calculating the carbon content of natural gas is as follows: Where V is the volume concentration of the gas component; CN n This represents the number of carbon atoms in the gaseous component.

7. The method for evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Average lower heating value after hydrogen doping The calculation formula is: Where, p H2 This refers to the hydrogen blending ratio; LHV H2 The lower heating value (LHV) of hydrogen. NG This refers to the lower heating value of natural gas. Hydrogen-doped power generation efficiency The calculation formula is: in, For natural gas power generation efficiency; For hydrogen power generation efficiency; Unit power consumption The calculation formula is: The formula for calculating the carbon emissions of a power plant after hydrogen blending is: Among them, EF NG Carbon emission factor for natural gas; EF H2 The carbon emission factor of hydrogen; P total This represents the total power generation of the power plant.

8. The method for evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending as described in claim 7, characterized in that, Hydrogen fuel cost The calculation formula is: Reduced natural gas costs due to hydrogen blending The calculation formula is: Among them, P H2 The market price of hydrogen; This represents the annual power generation.

9. The method for evaluating the benefits of natural gas power generation based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The method for calculating the rate of return of a natural gas power generation project, based on the project's total cost, total revenue, and economic evaluation indicators, is as follows: Calculate the positive costs of carbon trading and hydrogen-blended power generation, determine the hydrogen fuel cost and natural gas reduction cost resulting from hydrogen-blended power generation, and assess whether the sum of the carbon emission reduction from hydrogen-blended power generation and the project's original carbon emissions exceeds the project's free allowance. If the project exceeds the free allowance, the excess will incur carbon costs. Therefore, the total cost of the project is calculated. The calculation formula is: in, The cost of hydrogen fuel is due to hydrogen-blended power generation. It's the cost of carbon. This is due to the reduced cost of natural gas from hydrogen blending; Determine the total original carbon emissions of the project and the carbon emissions reduced by hydrogen co-generation. Calculate the difference between the two. If the difference is greater than 0, calculate the carbon revenue of the project. If the difference is less than 0, carbon trading and hydrogen co-generation will not generate positive revenue. The benefits of natural gas power generation are evaluated by comparing the rate of return of the project before and after considering carbon trading and hydrogen blending.

10. A natural gas power generation benefit evaluation system based on carbon trading and hydrogen blending power generation, characterized in that, include: The data acquisition module is used to acquire evaluation data for natural gas power generation projects; The economic evaluation index calculation module is used to predict the total cost, total revenue, and economic evaluation index of the project based on the evaluation data. The carbon emission calculation module is used to calculate the total carbon emissions of the project based on the evaluation data, determine whether the total carbon emissions exceed the preset carbon emission limit, and if so, purchase carbon emission allowances or reduce carbon emissions by generating electricity with hydrogen; otherwise, sell carbon emission allowances, add the cost of purchasing carbon emission allowances to the total cost of the project, and add the revenue from selling carbon emission allowances to the total revenue of the project. The hydrogen blending power generation calculation module is used to calculate the carbon emissions and hydrogen blending costs under the original hydrogen blending ratio if it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions through hydrogen blending power generation, adjust the hydrogen blending ratio until the sum of the hydrogen blending cost and the carbon emission cost is minimized, and add it to the total cost of the project. The power generation benefit evaluation module is used to calculate the rate of return of natural gas power generation projects based on the project's total cost, total revenue, and economic evaluation indicators, and to evaluate the benefits of natural gas power generation.

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