Dangerous chemical storage tank area risk assessment method and device based on comprehensive risk

Abstract

The invention discloses a dangerous chemical storage tank area risk assessment method and device based on comprehensive risks, and relates to the technical field of chemical accident risk analysis, and the method comprises the steps: constructing a basic database of a dangerous chemical storage tank area; performing failure probability analysis on the potential accident source according to the basic database to determine an initial accident frequency; calculating a first economic loss expectation based on the initial accident frequency; performing upgrade probability analysis on each affected device, and determining the domino accident frequency of the affected device in combination with the initial accident frequency; calculating a second economic loss expectation according to the domino accident frequency; calculating a comprehensive risk probability according to the initial accident frequency and the domino accident frequency; calculating an accumulated economic loss expectation according to the first economic loss expectation and the second economic loss expectation; and performing risk assessment according to the comprehensive risk probability and the accumulated economic loss expectation of each device. According to the scheme, the accuracy of performing economic loss and risk assessment on the dangerous chemical storage tank area can be improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of chemical accident risk analysis technology, and in particular to a method and apparatus for risk assessment of hazardous chemical storage tank areas based on comprehensive risk. Background Technology

[0002] In recent years, my country has increasingly emphasized the safe storage process of large-scale hazardous chemicals. Accident modes in the storage process include initial accidents in individual equipment and domino effects between multiple equipment. Quantifying the potential risks of these accidents is crucial to helping prevent high-risk accident modes.

[0003] However, risk assessment results are typically a combination of the probability of an accident occurring and the severity of its consequences, making it difficult to intuitively understand the importance of related accidents and thus hinder more reasonable risk classification and control and accident prevention measures. Furthermore, existing risk-based economic loss analysis processes suffer from insufficient consideration of accident types and unreliable assessment results, specifically by failing to analyze in detail the losses caused by different leakage modes and accident types.

[0004] The aforementioned problems are particularly prominent in the field of large-scale hazardous chemical storage tank areas, resulting in low accuracy of risk assessment results, poor understanding of various accident risks by enterprises, and difficulty in carrying out more reasonable risk classification and management. Summary of the Invention

[0005] In view of this, and to address the above shortcomings, it is necessary to propose a risk assessment method and device for hazardous chemical tank farms based on comprehensive risk, so as to improve the accuracy of economic loss evaluation and risk assessment of hazardous chemical tank farms, thereby assisting enterprises in carrying out more reasonable risk classification and management.

[0006] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a risk assessment method for hazardous chemical storage tank farms based on comprehensive risk, comprising:

[0007] Construct a basic database for hazardous chemical storage tank farms;

[0008] Based on the aforementioned basic database, failure probability analysis is conducted on potential accident sources to determine the initial accident frequency for each accident scenario;

[0009] Based on the initial accident frequency, calculate the first expected economic loss for each accident scenario.

[0010] For each affected device under each accident scenario, an upgrade probability analysis is performed, and the domino accident frequency of the affected device is determined in combination with the initial accident frequency.

[0011] Calculate the expected second economic loss for each affected device based on the frequency of the domino accident.

[0012] Calculate the overall risk probability of each device based on the initial accident frequency and the domino accident frequency;

[0013] Calculate the cumulative expected economic loss for each device based on the first expected economic loss and the second expected economic loss;

[0014] Risk assessment is conducted based on the overall risk probability and expected cumulative economic loss of each piece of equipment.

[0015] Preferably, the data in the basic database includes:

[0016] Storage volume V, pressure P, and coordinate data of all equipment in the tank area;

[0017] Failure frequency data for each piece of equipment in the tank farm; this failure frequency data includes the statistical frequency of typical leakage modes;

[0018] Material cost C of each piece of equipment in the tank farm m Equipment cost C e Remaining service life Y;

[0019] Risk matrix data for tank farms.

[0020] Preferably, the step of conducting failure probability analysis on potential accident sources based on the basic database includes:

[0021] Through risk identification and data research, an event tree structure containing multiple accident types is determined for each piece of equipment; each event tree structure starts from equipment leakage and continues until the leaked material is ignited and causes a fire or explosion, or the material is not ignited.

[0022] Based on the equipment failure frequency data and event tree structure, the initial accident frequency of different initial accident scenarios is determined.

[0023] Preferably, the step of calculating the expected first economic loss for each accident scenario based on the initial accident frequency includes:

[0024] The expected first economic loss is calculated using the following formula: ;

[0025] In the formula, ignition represents the leaked substance being ignited, resulting in a fire or explosion, and C p,m Let F represent the expected economic loss of the first economic loss. m The initial accident frequency, m release and m total These represent the amount of substance leaked and the total amount of substance, respectively.

[0026] Preferably, the step of performing upgrade probability analysis for each affected device under each accident scenario, and determining the domino accident frequency of the affected devices in conjunction with the initial accident frequency, includes:

[0027] Simulate the upgrade vector U of the accident scenario m of device n where the initial accident occurs to other affected devices. n,m ;

[0028] Based on the upgrade vector U n,m The regression model calculates the upgrade probability P for each affected device. d,n,m ;

[0029] Based on the initial fault frequency F of the initial fault device n. m and the upgrade probability P d,n,m Calculate the domino accident frequency F of the affected equipment. d,n,m .

[0030] Preferably, the step of calculating the second expected economic loss for each affected device based on the domino accident frequency includes:

[0031] The expected second economic loss is calculated using the following formula: ;

[0032] In the formula, C d,n,m This represents the expected economic loss for the second reason.

[0033] Preferably, the step of calculating the comprehensive risk probability of each device based on the initial accident frequency and the domino accident frequency includes:

[0034] The overall risk probability for each device is calculated using the following formula: ;

[0035] In the formula, R is the overall risk probability of the device, K is the total number of initial accident scenarios for a single device, N is the total number of other initial accident devices excluding the current device, and M is the total number of initial accident scenarios for all other initial accident devices.

[0036] Preferably, the step of calculating the cumulative expected economic loss for each device based on the first expected economic loss and the second expected economic loss includes:

[0037] The expected cumulative economic loss is calculated using the following formula: ;

[0038] In the formula, C represents the expected cumulative economic loss, K is the total number of initial accident scenarios for a single device, N is the total number of other initial accident devices excluding the current device, and M is the total number of initial accident scenarios for all other initial accident devices.

[0039] Preferably, the risk assessment based on the comprehensive risk probability and expected cumulative economic loss of each device includes:

[0040] Based on the overall risk probability and expected cumulative economic loss of each device, the position of each device in the risk matrix is ​​determined, and the corresponding risk level is then determined.

[0041] Secondly, the present invention provides a risk assessment device for hazardous chemical storage tank areas based on comprehensive risk. The device includes: a database construction module, an initial accident frequency determination module, a first economic loss expectation determination module, a domino accident frequency determination module, a second economic loss expectation determination module, a comprehensive risk probability determination module, a cumulative economic loss expectation determination module, and a risk assessment module.

[0042] The database construction module is configured to build a basic database for hazardous chemical storage tank areas;

[0043] The initial accident frequency determination module is configured to perform failure probability analysis on potential accident sources based on the basic database to determine the initial accident frequency for each accident scenario.

[0044] The first economic loss expectation determination module is configured to calculate the first economic loss expectation corresponding to each accident scenario based on the initial accident frequency.

[0045] The domino accident frequency determination module is configured to perform upgrade probability analysis on each affected device under each accident scenario, and determine the domino accident frequency of the affected device in combination with the initial accident frequency.

[0046] The second economic loss expectation determination module is configured to calculate the second economic loss expectation of each affected device based on the domino accident frequency;

[0047] The comprehensive risk probability determination module is configured to calculate the comprehensive risk probability of each device based on the initial accident frequency and the domino accident frequency.

[0048] The cumulative economic loss expectation determination module is configured to calculate the cumulative economic loss expectation for each device based on the first economic loss expectation and the second economic loss expectation.

[0049] The risk assessment module is configured to perform risk assessment based on the overall risk probability and expected cumulative economic loss of each device.

[0050] As can be seen from the above technical solution, the method and apparatus for risk assessment of hazardous chemical storage tank areas based on comprehensive risk provided by the present invention first constructs a basic database of the hazardous chemical storage tank area, and then conducts failure probability analysis on potential accident sources based on the basic database to determine the initial accident frequency for each accident scenario. Further, based on the initial accident frequency, the first expected economic loss corresponding to each accident scenario is calculated, and an upgrade probability analysis is performed on the affected equipment under the influence of each accident scenario, combining the initial accident frequency to determine the domino accident frequency of the affected equipment. Further, based on the domino accident frequency, the second expected economic loss for each affected equipment is calculated, and then the comprehensive risk probability for each equipment is calculated based on the initial accident frequency and the domino accident frequency. Finally, based on the first and second expected economic losses, the cumulative expected economic loss for each equipment is calculated, and then the risk assessment can be achieved based on the comprehensive risk probability and the cumulative expected economic loss for each equipment. Therefore, this solution considers the interaction between different accident scenarios and affected related equipment, fully considering the interlocking effects between accidents, thereby improving the accuracy of economic loss assessment for hazardous chemical storage tank areas. Moreover, this application innovatively uses expected economic loss as the core indicator, which enables the results to be intuitive and relevant to decision-making, making different devices and different scenarios directly comparable and greatly enhancing risk awareness. Attached Figure Description

[0051] Figure 1 A flowchart of a risk assessment method for hazardous chemical storage tank areas based on comprehensive risk, provided for embodiments of the present invention.

[0052] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of a risk matrix provided for an embodiment of the present invention.

[0053] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of an event tree structure provided in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0054] Figure 4 The thermal radiation distribution of a jet fire occurring in a pressure storage tank.

[0055] Figure 5 This is a distribution map of economic losses in a hazardous chemical storage tank area in one embodiment.

[0056] Figure 6 This is a schematic diagram of a risk assessment device for hazardous chemical storage tank areas based on comprehensive risk, provided as an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0057] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings used in the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0058] like Figure 1 As shown, this invention provides a risk assessment method for hazardous chemical storage tank farms based on comprehensive risk, which may include the following steps:

[0059] Step 101: Construct a basic database for hazardous chemical storage tank farms;

[0060] Step 102: Conduct failure probability analysis on potential accident sources based on the basic database to determine the initial accident frequency for each accident scenario;

[0061] Step 103: Based on the initial accident frequency, calculate the expected first economic loss for each accident scenario;

[0062] Step 104: Perform upgrade probability analysis on each affected device under each accident scenario, and determine the domino accident frequency of the affected devices in combination with the initial accident frequency;

[0063] Step 105: Calculate the expected second economic loss for each affected device based on the domino accident frequency;

[0064] Step 106: Calculate the overall risk probability of each device based on the initial accident frequency and the domino accident frequency;

[0065] Step 107: Calculate the cumulative expected economic loss for each device based on the first expected economic loss and the second expected economic loss;

[0066] Step 108: Conduct a risk assessment based on the overall risk probability and expected cumulative economic loss of each device.

[0067] In this embodiment, a basic database of hazardous chemical storage tank areas is first constructed. Then, based on the basic database, failure probability analysis is conducted on potential accident sources to determine the initial accident frequency for each accident scenario. Further, based on the initial accident frequency, the first expected economic loss corresponding to each accident scenario is calculated, and an upgrade probability analysis is performed on the affected equipment under the influence of each accident scenario. The domino accident frequency of the affected equipment is determined by combining the initial accident frequency. Further, based on the domino accident frequency, the second expected economic loss for each affected equipment is calculated. Then, based on the initial accident frequency and the domino accident frequency, the comprehensive risk probability of each equipment is calculated. Finally, based on the first and second expected economic losses, the cumulative expected economic loss for each equipment is calculated. Risk assessment can then be achieved based on the comprehensive risk probability and cumulative expected economic loss for each equipment. Therefore, this scheme considers the interaction between different accident scenarios and affected related equipment, fully considering the interlocking effects between accidents, thereby improving the accuracy of economic loss assessment for hazardous chemical storage tank areas. Moreover, this application innovatively uses expected economic loss as the core indicator, enabling intuitive results and decision-making relevance, making different equipment and different scenarios directly comparable, and greatly enhancing risk awareness.

[0068] The following is a further explanation of the steps in a risk assessment method for hazardous chemical storage tanks based on comprehensive risk, provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0069] For step 101, construct a basic database for hazardous chemical storage tank farms;

[0070] This step aims to provide a standardized and quantifiable data foundation for the entire evaluation system. Specifically, this foundational database mainly includes equipment data, failure frequency data, economic data, and risk matrix data.

[0071] The equipment data may include the storage volume V, pressure P, and coordinates of all equipment in the tank farm. The failure frequency data for each piece of equipment in the tank farm mainly includes the statistical frequency of typical leakage modes. In one embodiment, the statistical probabilities of typical leakage modes for different equipment in a large tank farm are shown in Table 1.

[0072] Table 1. Statistical probability of typical leakage modes in different devices

[0073] Economic data can include the material costs C of each piece of equipment in the tank farm. m Equipment cost C e Remaining service life Y, etc.

[0074] For risk matrix data, such as Figure 2As shown, it can be a risk matrix, with the consequence level divided into 7 levels: A, B, C, D, E, F, and G, and the risk event probability divided into 8 levels. There are 4 colors in total. The lighter the color, the lower the risk level, and vice versa.

[0075] For step 102, failure probability analysis is performed on potential accident sources based on the basic database to determine the initial accident frequency for each accident scenario.

[0076] In this step, when performing failure probability analysis and determining the initial accident frequency for each accident scenario, the specific method used is as follows:

[0077] S21: Through risk identification and data research, determine an event tree structure for each device that includes multiple accident types; each event tree structure starts from a device leak and continues until the leaked substance is ignited and causes a fire or explosion, or the substance is not ignited.

[0078] In this step, such as Figure 3 The diagram illustrates an event tree structure in one embodiment of the present invention. The three types of event tree structures shown are: an event tree structure for continuous leakage of a pressure spherical tank, an event tree structure for continuous leakage of an atmospheric pressure storage tank, and an event tree structure for rupture of a pressure spherical tank. All three start from equipment leakage and continue until the leaked material is ignited and causes various fire or explosion accidents, or until it does not ignite. The event tree structures of other equipment are mostly subtrees of these three types of structures.

[0079] S22: Based on the equipment failure frequency data and event tree structure, determine the initial accident frequency of different initial accident scenarios.

[0080] In this step, we consider determining the initial accident frequency F of the equipment for different initial accident scenarios m (m=1,2,...,M) based on equipment failure frequency data and event tree analysis. m Each accident scenario corresponds to a branch of the event tree, and the leaf nodes of the branch correspond to an accident type. The frequency of each scenario is the product of the prior probabilities of the other nodes on the branch, excluding the leaf nodes. The probabilities of the other nodes can be obtained from standards and books in the neighborhood.

[0081] For step 103: Based on the initial accident frequency, calculate the expected first economic loss for each accident scenario.

[0082] In this step, we consider the initial accident frequency F. m Calculate the expected economic loss C for each accident scenario m. p,m : ;

[0083] In the formula, ignition represents the leaked substance being ignited, resulting in a fire or explosion, and C p,m Let F represent the expected economic loss of the first economic loss. m The initial accident frequency, m release and m total These represent the amount of substance leaked and the total amount of substance, respectively.

[0084] For step 104: Perform an upgrade probability analysis for each affected device under each accident scenario, and determine the domino accident frequency of the affected device in combination with the initial accident frequency.

[0085] In this step, when performing upgrade probability analysis on each affected device under each accident scenario and determining the domino accident frequency of the affected devices in conjunction with the initial accident frequency, this can be achieved in the following way:

[0086] S41: Simulate the upgrade vector U of the accident scenario m of device n where the initial accident occurs to other affected devices. n,m ;

[0087] In this step, regarding the escalation vector: it can be considered from the perspective of accident type. The accident type corresponding to accident scenario m can be divided into two categories: fire accidents and explosion accidents. For example, "jet fire" and "pool fire" in the event tree belong to fire accidents; "vapor cloud explosion" belongs to explosion accidents. Fire accidents cause thermal radiation to surrounding equipment, while explosion accidents cause overpressure shock waves. Every other piece of equipment in the vicinity will face thermal radiation or overpressure. These physical effects may cause the surrounding equipment to fail, which can be called the "escalation vector". For example, in terms of methodologies, methods for calculating escalation vectors include computational fluid dynamics methods and empirical model methods. Since the former has a higher computational cost, the latter will be used as an example. Assuming that the accident type corresponding to scenario m of device n is a vapor cloud explosion accident, then: (1) If the leaked substance is gas, calculate its leakage rate; if the leaked substance is liquid, calculate the leakage rate and then further calculate the evaporation rate of liquid to gas, etc.; (2) Based on the leakage rate and other data, calculate the mass of combustible vapor cloud in the atmosphere within a specified time; (3) Based on the vapor cloud mass and other data, use an empirical model (such as the Gaussian smoke cloud model) to simulate the concentration distribution of combustible vapor cloud in space; (4) Based on the concentration data, use the empirical model TNO model to simulate the overpressure caused by its explosion in various parts of space; (5) According to the location of other affected devices, obtain the overpressure data of their location.

[0088] The escalation vector is a physical quantity used to quantitatively characterize the intensity of the effect of an accident scenario m on a target device j from a source device n. For a fire accident, this vector can be the thermal radiation flux received at the target device (kW / m²); for an explosion accident, it can be the shock wave overpressure (kPa). This data needs to be obtained through accident consequence simulation, which can be achieved using high-precision computational fluid dynamics simulations or rapid empirical models. For example, ... Figure 4 The figure shows a thermal radiation distribution diagram of a jet fire occurring in a pressure storage tank based on an empirical method according to the present invention. The diagram shows the magnitude of thermal radiation experienced by all other equipment when the pressure tank, as the initial accident device, experiences a jet fire.

[0089] S42: Based on the upgrade vector U n,m The regression model calculates the upgrade probability P for each affected device. d,n,m ;

[0090] In this step, if a fire occurs in the initial equipment, the following applies to atmospheric pressure equipment: ;

[0091] For pressure equipment, then: ;

[0092] Where ttf is the failure time and V is the volume of the target device. For P r The value is a probability unit variable. By calculating ln(ttf), the failure time of the affected equipment can be obtained, and thus the failure time can be calculated. And further used in the regression model to calculate the P of the affected devices. d,n,m .

[0093] If an explosion occurs in the initial equipment, for atmospheric pressure equipment, then: ;

[0094] For pressure equipment, then: ;

[0095] It should be noted that fire accidents often require time to accumulate before equipment damage occurs, and a time-to-failure (TTF) exists to represent the equipment's failure time. Explosion accidents, on the other hand, often escalate instantly, meaning the TTF is a relatively small value. Therefore, for explosion accidents, it is unnecessary to calculate the TTF; instead, the escalation probability can be directly calculated using the escalation vector U.

[0096] Furthermore, the upgrade probability P of each affected device can be calculated using the following regression model. d,n,m : ;

[0097] Here, d has no meaning and is just an identifier, u is the integration variable, the integration interval is (-∞, x), and x = γ - 5.

[0098] S43: Based on the initial fault frequency F of the initial fault device n m and the upgrade probability P d,n,m Calculate the domino accident frequency F of the affected equipment. d,n,m .

[0099] In this step, the domino accident frequency F of each affected device is calculated using the following formula. d,n,m : .

[0100] For step 105, calculate the second expected economic loss for each affected device based on the domino accident frequency.

[0101] In this step, the frequency F of the domino accident caused by the accident scenario m of the initial accident device n is used. d,n,m Calculate the second expected economic loss C for each affected device. d,n,m When, it can be calculated as follows: .

[0102] For step 106, calculate the overall risk probability of each device based on the initial accident frequency and the domino accident frequency.

[0103] This step, when calculating the overall risk probability for each device, can be specifically calculated using the following method: ;

[0104] In the formula, R is the overall risk probability of the device, K is the total number of initial accident scenarios for a single device, N is the total number of other initial accident devices excluding the current device, and M is the total number of initial accident scenarios for all other initial accident devices.

[0105] For example, taking device 1 as an example, the comprehensive risk of device 1 is the frequency of each initial accident scenario of device 1 itself + the domino accident frequency of all scenarios of all other N devices on device 1. This formula shows that for the same device, there are not only initial accident scenarios caused by its own defects, but also domino accidents caused by the failure of other devices. This formula quantifies the value of the corresponding accident from a probabilistic perspective. For device 1, therefore, the following meaning exists: F on the right side of the formula... k F represents the probability of the initial accident scenario k caused by device 1 due to its own defects or other factors. d,n,mThis represents the frequency at which the initial accident scenario m of the initial accident device n causes a domino accident to device 1.

[0106] For step 107, the cumulative economic loss expectation for each device is calculated based on the first economic loss expectation and the second economic loss expectation.

[0107] In this step, when calculating the expected cumulative economic loss for each piece of equipment, the following formula can be used: ;

[0108] In the formula, C represents the expected cumulative economic loss, K is the total number of initial accident scenarios for a single device, N is the total number of other initial accident devices excluding the current device, and M is the total number of initial accident scenarios for all other initial accident devices.

[0109] For example, taking device 1 as an example again: when device 1 is the initial source of the accident, C p,k C represents the expected economic loss when device 1 experiences the initial accident scenario k; when device 1 is the affected device, C d,n,m Let m represent the expected economic loss caused by the domino accident to device 1 in the initial accident scenario m of device n.

[0110] For step 108, a risk assessment is conducted based on the overall risk probability and expected cumulative economic loss of each device.

[0111] In this step, the positions of R and C for each device in the risk matrix are determined, and the color and visualization representing the risk level of each device are recorded to determine the corresponding risk level. For example, as... Figure 5 The diagram shown is an economic loss distribution map of a hazardous chemical storage tank area according to one embodiment of the present invention. Considering only the storage tanks as the analysis object, it is assumed that the material cost Cm, equipment cost Ce, and remaining service life Y of each tank are 200,000 yuan, 200,000 yuan, and 10 years, respectively. The risk level of each piece of equipment in the tank area is shown in blue, indicating that the risk level of all storage tanks in the area is located in the upper left region of the risk matrix, indicating a relatively high overall safety level.

[0112] like Figure 6 As shown, the present invention also provides a risk assessment device for hazardous chemical storage tank areas based on comprehensive risk. The device includes: a database construction module 601, an initial accident frequency determination module 602, a first economic loss expectation determination module 603, a domino accident frequency determination module 604, a second economic loss expectation determination module 605, a comprehensive risk probability determination module 606, a cumulative economic loss expectation determination module 607, and a risk assessment module 608.

[0113] The database construction module 601 is configured to construct a basic database for the hazardous chemical storage tank area.

[0114] The initial accident frequency determination module 602 is configured to perform failure probability analysis on potential accident sources based on the basic database to determine the initial accident frequency for each accident scenario.

[0115] The first economic loss expectation determination module 603 is configured to calculate the first economic loss expectation corresponding to each accident scenario based on the initial accident frequency.

[0116] The domino accident frequency determination module 604 is configured to perform upgrade probability analysis on each affected device under each accident scenario, and determine the domino accident frequency of the affected device in combination with the initial accident frequency.

[0117] The second economic loss expectation determination module 605 is configured to calculate the second economic loss expectation of each affected device based on the domino accident frequency;

[0118] The comprehensive risk probability determination module 606 is configured to calculate the comprehensive risk probability of each device based on the initial accident frequency and the domino accident frequency.

[0119] The cumulative economic loss expectation determination module 607 is configured to calculate the cumulative economic loss expectation for each device based on the first economic loss expectation and the second economic loss expectation.

[0120] The risk assessment module 608 is configured to perform risk assessment based on the comprehensive risk probability and expected cumulative economic loss of each device.

[0121] In one embodiment, the initial accident frequency determination module 602 is specifically configured to perform the following operations:

[0122] Through risk identification and data research, an event tree structure containing multiple accident types is determined for each piece of equipment; each event tree structure starts from equipment leakage and continues until the leaked material is ignited and causes a fire or explosion, or the material is not ignited.

[0123] Based on the equipment failure frequency data and event tree structure, the initial accident frequency of different initial accident scenarios is determined.

[0124] In one embodiment, the first expected economic loss determination module 603 is specifically configured to perform the following operations:

[0125] The expected first economic loss is calculated using the following formula: ;

[0126] In the formula, ignition represents the leaked substance being ignited, resulting in a fire or explosion, and C p,m Let F represent the expected economic loss of the first economic loss. m The initial accident frequency, m release and m total These represent the amount of substance leaked and the total amount of substance, respectively.

[0127] In one embodiment, the domino incident frequency determination module 604 is specifically configured to perform the following operations:

[0128] Simulate the upgrade vector U of the accident scenario m of device n where the initial accident occurs to other affected devices. n,m ;

[0129] Based on the upgrade vector U n,m The regression model calculates the upgrade probability P for each affected device. d,n,m ;

[0130] Based on the initial fault frequency F of the initial fault device n. m and the upgrade probability P d,n,m Calculate the domino accident frequency F of the affected equipment. d,n,m .

[0131] In one embodiment, the second economic loss expectation determination module 605 is specifically configured to calculate the second economic loss expectation using the following formula: ;

[0132] In the formula, C d,n,m This represents the expected economic loss for the second reason.

[0133] In one embodiment, the comprehensive risk probability determination module 606 is specifically configured to calculate the comprehensive risk probability of each device using the following formula: ;

[0134] In the formula, R is the overall risk probability of the device, K is the total number of initial accident scenarios for a single device, N is the total number of other initial accident devices excluding the current device, and M is the total number of initial accident scenarios for all other initial accident devices.

[0135] In one embodiment, the cumulative economic loss expectation determination module 607 is specifically configured to calculate the cumulative economic loss expectation using the following formula: ;

[0136] In the formula, C represents the expected cumulative economic loss, K is the total number of initial accident scenarios for a single device, N is the total number of other initial accident devices excluding the current device, and M is the total number of initial accident scenarios for all other initial accident devices.

[0137] In one embodiment, the risk assessment module 608 is configured to determine the position of each device in the risk matrix based on the comprehensive risk probability and the expected cumulative economic loss of each device, and then determine the corresponding risk level.

[0138] In summary, the risk assessment method and apparatus for hazardous chemical storage tank areas based on comprehensive risk provided by the embodiments of the present invention have at least the following beneficial effects:

[0139] (1) Filling the gap in analysis: This invention, through the progressive logic of initial accident analysis, domino accident analysis and comprehensive integration, has for the first time constructed a complete analysis chain that seamlessly connects the two and unifies and quantifies them within the same economic framework. This fundamentally solves the problem of traditional methods systematically underestimating risks due to ignoring the chain reaction of accidents, making the assessment results more comprehensive and reliable.

[0140] (2) Improved quantification accuracy: This solution distinguishes different accident scenarios through a detailed event tree and uses a probabilistic unit model to accurately calculate the escalation probability, rather than relying on empirical estimation. This quantification method based on physical models and probabilistic statistics significantly improves the scientific rigor and accuracy of the expected economic loss calculation results.

[0141] (3) Innovatively using expected economic loss as the core indicator to enhance the intuitiveness of the results and their relevance to decision-making.

[0142] (4) Risk monetization: The risk is ultimately expressed as a clear economic indicator of the expected annual economic loss (RMB / year). This makes different types of risks (fire, explosion, leakage) directly comparable. Management can view safety risks as if they were operating costs, which greatly enhances the intuitiveness of risk perception.

[0143] (5) Directly linked to risk management decisions: This indicator can be directly applied to the economic decisions of enterprises. For example, based on the expected level of cumulative economic loss, the priority of risk control can be scientifically determined, and limited resources can be invested in the most expensive risk points. Another example is to assess whether safety investments (such as adding fire dikes or improving materials) can effectively reduce the expected level of cumulative economic loss, thereby calculating the return on safety investment.

[0144] (6) Risk Hotspots and Vulnerability Identification: The generated comprehensive risk visualization distribution map can intuitively map the calculation results onto the actual layout of the tank area using different colors, making high-risk equipment (risk sources) and vulnerable equipment (vulnerabilities) immediately apparent. This visualization not only displays the static risk level but also reveals how risks are transmitted and amplified between equipment by analyzing domino contribution. For example, a piece of equipment with low inherent risk may be highlighted in the map if it suffers from a large number of external domino risks due to its location, providing a direct basis for optimizing equipment layout and setting up physical isolation.

[0145] (7) Easy to implement and highly adaptable: This solution provides a complete and step-by-step operational guide from data preparation to result output, and gives specific examples of formulas and model parameters. This structured design makes the method easy for safety engineers to master, and can be implemented through programming software tools for efficient and repeatable evaluation. Moreover, the framework of this solution is universal. The database, event tree model, escalation probability model and other modules can be adapted and updated according to the actual situation of a specific tank farm (equipment type, material properties, industry database), so that it can be applied to hazardous chemical storage tank farms of various sizes and types.

[0146] This specification also provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed in a computer, causes the computer to perform the methods in any of the embodiments of the specification.

[0147] This specification also provides a computing device, including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores executable code, and when the processor executes the executable code, it implements the method in any of the embodiments of the specification.

[0148] The device embodiments provided by the present invention are based on the same inventive concept as the method embodiments in this specification. For details, please refer to the description in the method embodiments of this specification, which will not be repeated here.

[0149] The modules or units in the device of this invention can be merged, divided, and deleted according to actual needs. The above-disclosed embodiments are merely preferred embodiments of the present invention and should not be construed as limiting the scope of the invention. Those skilled in the art will understand that implementing all or part of the processes of the above embodiments and making equivalent changes according to the claims of this invention still fall within the scope of the invention.

Claims

1. A risk assessment method for hazardous chemical storage tank farms based on comprehensive risk, characterized in that, include: Construct a basic database for hazardous chemical storage tank farms; Based on the aforementioned basic database, failure probability analysis is conducted on potential accident sources to determine the initial accident frequency for each accident scenario; Based on the initial accident frequency, calculate the first expected economic loss for each accident scenario. For each affected device under each accident scenario, an upgrade probability analysis is performed, and the domino accident frequency of the affected device is determined in combination with the initial accident frequency. Calculate the expected second economic loss for each affected device based on the frequency of the domino accident. Calculate the overall risk probability of each device based on the initial accident frequency and the domino accident frequency; Calculate the cumulative expected economic loss for each device based on the first expected economic loss and the second expected economic loss; Risk assessment is conducted based on the overall risk probability and expected cumulative economic loss of each piece of equipment.

2. The risk assessment method for hazardous chemical storage tank areas based on comprehensive risk according to claim 1, characterized in that, The data in the underlying database includes: Storage volume V, pressure P, and coordinate data of all equipment in the tank area; Failure frequency data for each piece of equipment in the tank farm; this failure frequency data includes the statistical frequency of typical leakage modes; Material cost C of each piece of equipment in the tank farm m Equipment cost C e Remaining service life Y; Risk matrix data for tank farms.

3. The risk assessment method for hazardous chemical storage tank areas based on comprehensive risk according to claim 1, characterized in that, The step of conducting failure probability analysis on potential accident sources based on the basic database includes: Through risk identification and data research, an event tree structure containing multiple accident types is determined for each piece of equipment; each event tree structure starts from equipment leakage and continues until the leaked material is ignited and causes a fire or explosion, or the material is not ignited. Based on the equipment failure frequency data and event tree structure, the initial accident frequency of different initial accident scenarios is determined.

4. The risk assessment method for hazardous chemical storage tank farms based on comprehensive risk according to claim 3, characterized in that, The first expected economic loss for each accident scenario is calculated based on the initial accident frequency. include: The expected first economic loss is calculated using the following formula: ； In the formula, ignition represents the leaked substance being ignited, resulting in a fire or explosion, and C p,m Let F represent the expected economic loss of the first economic loss. m The initial accident frequency, m release and m total These represent the amount of substance leaked and the total amount of substance, respectively.

5. The risk assessment method for hazardous chemical storage tank areas based on comprehensive risk according to claim 4, characterized in that, The process of performing upgrade probability analysis on each affected device under each accident scenario, and determining the domino accident frequency of the affected devices based on the initial accident frequency, includes: Simulate the upgrade vector U of the accident scenario m of device n where the initial accident occurs to other affected devices. n,m ; Based on the upgrade vector U n,m The regression model calculates the upgrade probability P for each affected device. d,n,m ; Based on the initial fault frequency F of the initial fault device n. m and the upgrade probability P d,n,m Calculate the domino accident frequency F of the affected equipment. d,n,m .

6. The risk assessment method for hazardous chemical storage tank areas based on comprehensive risk according to claim 5, characterized in that, The calculation of the second expected economic loss for each affected device based on the domino accident frequency includes: The expected second economic loss is calculated using the following formula: ； In the formula, C d,n,m This represents the expected economic loss for the second reason.

7. The risk assessment method for hazardous chemical storage tank areas based on comprehensive risk according to claim 5, characterized in that, The calculation of the comprehensive risk probability of each device based on the initial accident frequency and the domino accident frequency includes: The overall risk probability for each device is calculated using the following formula: ； In the formula, R is the overall risk probability of the device, K is the total number of initial accident scenarios for a single device, N is the total number of other initial accident devices excluding the current device, and M is the total number of initial accident scenarios for all other initial accident devices.

8. The risk assessment method for hazardous chemical storage tank farms based on comprehensive risk according to claim 6, characterized in that, The cumulative expected economic loss for each device is calculated based on the first expected economic loss and the second expected economic loss. include: The expected cumulative economic loss is calculated using the following formula: ； In the formula, C represents the expected cumulative economic loss, K is the total number of initial accident scenarios for a single device, N is the total number of other initial accident devices excluding the current device, and M is the total number of initial accident scenarios for all other initial accident devices.

9. The risk assessment method for hazardous chemical storage tank areas based on comprehensive risk according to claim 2, characterized in that, The risk assessment based on the comprehensive risk probability and expected cumulative economic loss of each device includes: Based on the overall risk probability and expected cumulative economic loss of each device, the position of each device in the risk matrix is ​​determined, and the corresponding risk level is then determined.

10. A risk assessment device for hazardous chemical storage tank areas based on comprehensive risk, characterized in that, The device includes: a database construction module, an initial accident frequency determination module, a first expected economic loss determination module, a domino accident frequency determination module, a second expected economic loss determination module, a comprehensive risk probability determination module, a cumulative expected economic loss determination module, and a risk assessment module; The database construction module is configured to build a basic database for hazardous chemical storage tank areas; The initial accident frequency determination module is configured to perform failure probability analysis on potential accident sources based on the basic database to determine the initial accident frequency for each accident scenario. The first economic loss expectation determination module is configured to calculate the first economic loss expectation corresponding to each accident scenario based on the initial accident frequency. The domino accident frequency determination module is configured to perform upgrade probability analysis on each affected device under each accident scenario, and determine the domino accident frequency of the affected device in combination with the initial accident frequency. The second economic loss expectation determination module is configured to calculate the second economic loss expectation of each affected device based on the domino accident frequency; The comprehensive risk probability determination module is configured to calculate the comprehensive risk probability of each device based on the initial accident frequency and the domino accident frequency. The cumulative economic loss expectation determination module is configured to calculate the cumulative economic loss expectation for each device based on the first economic loss expectation and the second economic loss expectation. The risk assessment module is configured to perform risk assessment based on the overall risk probability and expected cumulative economic loss of each device.

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