Simulation effect evaluation method for artificial precipitation enhancement multi-catalyst scheme under live precipitation constraint

Abstract

The application discloses a method for evaluating simulation effects of a multi-catalyst artificial precipitation enhancement scheme under live precipitation constraints, comprising the following steps: obtaining reanalysis field data, precipitation data and artificial precipitation enhancement operation information of a region to be evaluated; driving a non-catalyst simulation and a simulation catalyst simulation of a precipitation process based on the reanalysis field data according to the artificial precipitation enhancement operation information; taking the non-catalyst simulation result as a precipitation background field; determining an operation influence area based on a catalyst average value of each catalyst simulation result; counting hit grid points and missed grid points of simulated precipitation in the operation influence area according to the precipitation background field and the precipitation data; calculating a simulated rainfall enhancement rate and an actual rainfall enhancement rate on the hit grid points to obtain an evaluation result of an actual catalyst rainfall enhancement effect. The method uses multiple catalyst parameter schemes in combination with CMPAS live data constraints for simulation and simulation, and determines an operation influence area based on a catalyst vertical integral concentration threshold value, thereby improving the reliability and business practicability of artificial precipitation enhancement effect evaluation and providing accurate support for subsequent operation scheme optimization.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of artificial rain enhancement, and more particularly to a method for evaluating the simulation effects of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial rain enhancement under the constraint of real precipitation. Background Technology

[0002] Artificial rainmaking, by seeding clouds with catalysts such as silver iodide and hygroscopic particles, intervenes in the microphysical processes of cloud precipitation, promoting precipitation formation or increasing precipitation intensity. It has been widely used in scenarios such as ecological restoration, agricultural drought relief, and forest fire fighting. Therefore, the scientific, objective, and quantitative evaluation of the effects of catalytic operations has become a key focus in the field of weather modification. Numerical simulation verification is one of the main technical methods for evaluating the effectiveness of operations. Currently, some numerical simulation systems that can simulate the actual weather modification process have been established. Through experiments in different cloud chambers, parameterized formulas for the nucleation process of catalysts such as silver iodide have been summarized and coupled into numerical models in different forms. It has the technical capability to simulate the catalytic processes of weather modification operations such as aircraft, rockets, and anti-aircraft artillery. Due to differences in different experiments, catalyst components, and numerical calculation schemes used when coupling into models, the simulation results of parameterized schemes for catalytic simulation vary, thus affecting the simulation evaluation of the effectiveness of catalytic operations. Therefore, relying solely on a fixed parameterized scheme for catalytic simulation to evaluate the catalytic effect will result in significant uncertainty in the simulation results.

[0003] On the other hand, since the precipitation fields simulated by current numerical models differ to some extent from the actual precipitation fields, relying solely on the numerical models to evaluate the effects of actual artificial rain enhancement operations results in a result based on the precipitation fields simulated by the models themselves, without considering the actual precipitation situation. Therefore, the estimated rainfall increase is more of a relative reference and cannot provide quantitative results on the actual rainfall background field, thus limiting its wider application in practical operations.

[0004] In view of the above, we have established a quantitative evaluation method for the effect of artificial rain enhancement operations by integrating numerical simulation of multiple catalytic parameterization schemes and using real precipitation fields to constrain the quantitative calculation in the process of evaluating the effect of catalytic simulation. Through this integrated evaluation method based on real precipitation constraints, we can obtain the quantitative rain enhancement effect of actual artificial rain enhancement operations in the context of real precipitation fields. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The purpose of this invention is to provide a method for evaluating the simulation effects of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial rain enhancement under the constraint of real-time precipitation.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention is implemented according to the following technical solution: This invention provides a method for evaluating the simulation effects of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial rain enhancement under the constraint of real-time precipitation, including: Acquire rainfall enhancement data for the area to be evaluated, and preprocess the rainfall enhancement data, which includes reanalysis field data, precipitation data, and artificial weather modification operation information; Based on the reanalysis field data, the precipitation process was driven by artificial weather modification operation information without catalysis and by simulated catalysis. The artificial weather modification operation information included different catalytic parameter schemes for silver iodide catalysts. The non-catalytic simulation results are used as the precipitation background field. The catalytic simulation results are matched and aligned using latitude and longitude grids and enhanced with a non-sharpening mask. The operational impact area is determined based on the catalytic average value of each catalytic simulation result. Based on the aforementioned precipitation background field and precipitation data, the simulated precipitation in the operation impact area is evaluated to determine the rain / sunshine score, and the hit and missed grid points of the simulated precipitation are counted. Based on the simulated and actual rainfall increases calculated at the hit grid points, the rainfall increase rate of missed grid points is optimized and supplemented using a cuckoo search based on the actual rainfall increase rate, thereby obtaining an evaluation result of the actual catalytic rainfall increase effect.

[0007] Furthermore, the method for obtaining the rainfall enhancement data includes: Acquire global or regional atmospheric reanalysis field data for the region to be evaluated, convert the reanalysis field data into a numerical model compatible format, and map it to coordinates through bilinear interpolation. The reanalysis field data includes three-dimensional element fields of air pressure, temperature, humidity, and wind field. The reanalysis field data has a time resolution of ≥1 hour and a spatial resolution of ≥0.1 degrees. The compatible format includes NetCDF. Acquire precipitation data and weather modification operation information for the coordinates, remove outlier zero values ​​from the precipitation data, match the weather modification operation information to the time series of reanalysis field data according to the operation time, associate the operation location with the coordinate latitude and longitude, and obtain the rain enhancement data for the area to be evaluated. The spatial resolution of the precipitation data is greater than or equal to 1 kilometer and the temporal resolution is greater than or equal to 1 hour. The artificial rain enhancement operation methods include aircraft, rockets, anti-aircraft guns and smoke generators. The operation location includes operation sites and flight path coordinates.

[0008] Furthermore, the method for obtaining the catalytic simulation results includes: Based on precipitation data, latitude and longitude grids and precipitation time points are determined. The three-dimensional element field is used as the boundary condition of the latitude and longitude grid according to the reanalysis field data. The operation location, operation time and catalyst dosage are extracted according to the artificial weather modification operation information. Based on the boundary conditions, the precipitation process is simulated without catalyst in the area to be evaluated through a preset platform to obtain the simulation results without catalyst. The number of vertical layers in the simulation without catalyst is greater than or equal to 50, and the simulation time covers the operation time and precipitation time points. Based on the operational location, the trajectory of the aircraft, rockets, anti-aircraft guns, and smoke generators spreading the seeding process is gridded using a latitude and longitude grid. According to the trajectory grid, operational time, catalyst dosage, and boundary conditions, different catalytic parameter schemes are used to simulate the precipitation process, and catalytic simulation results are obtained. The catalytic simulation results include catalytic precipitation grid data and catalyst vertical integral concentration field data. The catalytic parameter schemes include simulation time-varying calculation schemes and simulation steady-state calculation schemes for seven silver iodide catalysts.

[0009] Furthermore, the method for obtaining the extent of the operation's impact area includes: Using the uncatalyzed simulation results as the precipitation background field, the catalyzed simulation results for different catalytic parameter schemes were matched and aligned using latitude and longitude grids. The ensemble mean precipitation field and ensemble variance of the precipitation fields under different catalytic parameter schemes were calculated. Based on the wind field data from the reanalysis field data, the ensemble mean precipitation field was enhanced using an unsharpened mask to obtain a spatially structure-enhanced precipitation field. The formula for the unsharpened mask enhancement is as follows: ; ; in To enhance the precipitation field in spatial structure, For the aggregate mean precipitation field, Background field for precipitation, Base sharpening intensity, This is the set variance adjustment parameter. For the precipitation field with ensemble variance, For grid Standard deviation of precipitation field in neighboring area Small positive number, For the weights of the anisotropic advection kernel, For the meridional grid resolution, For latitudinal grid resolution, The wind speed is in the zonal direction. For meridional wind speed, The characteristic time of advection in the precipitation system, The standard deviation is the Gaussian kernel, and the grid spacing is 2 to 5 times. The neighborhood offset index is the relative coordinate within the convolution kernel window; Based on the spatial structure-enhanced precipitation field, vertical integrated concentration data of silver iodide catalyst particles are obtained. If the ensemble mean of the vertical integrated concentration data is greater than or equal to 500 L... -2 The latitude and longitude grid area is then taken as the scope of the operation impact area, and the ensemble average of the simulated precipitation field is taken as the simulated precipitation amount based on the operation impact area.

[0010] Furthermore, the method for obtaining the simulated precipitation includes: Based on the impact area of ​​the operation, a weighted average of the catalytic precipitation grid data output by each catalytic parameter scheme is calculated on each latitude and longitude grid. The formula for calculating the weighted average is as follows: ; ; in The average value of the set. No. Catalytic parameter schemes in grid The weighting coefficients on, Number the catalytic parameter scheme. Precipitation data on a latitude and longitude grid. For grid Catalytic precipitation gridded data.

[0011] Furthermore, the method for obtaining the weather rating includes: Based on the operational impact area, the precipitation background field, precipitation data, and ensemble mean of each grid point are aligned in terms of spatiotemporal resolution according to the latitude and longitude grid. Based on the aligned grid points, the hit grid points, false alarm grid points, and missed grid points are counted. The hit grid points are those where the ensemble mean indicates rain and the precipitation data indicates rain. The false alarm grid points are those where the ensemble mean indicates rain but the precipitation data indicates no rain. The missed grid points are those where the ensemble mean indicates no rain but the precipitation data indicates rain. The TS score is calculated based on the hit grid points, false alarm grid points, and missed alarm grid points. Grid points with a TS score greater than or equal to 0.5 are retained to obtain the weather score.

[0012] Furthermore, the method for obtaining the simulated rainfall increase rate includes: The simulated rainfall enhancement rate is calculated based on the precipitation background field of the operation's impact area and the hit grid points. If the precipitation in the precipitation background field corresponding to the hit grid point is greater than zero, the simulated rainfall enhancement rate is obtained by dividing the difference between the simulated rainfall and the precipitation in the precipitation background field by the precipitation in the precipitation background field. If the precipitation in the precipitation background field corresponding to the hit grid point is zero and the simulated rainfall is greater than zero, the maximum simulated rainfall enhancement rate in the operation's impact area is taken as the simulated rainfall enhancement rate of the current hit grid point. If the simulated rainfall is also zero, the simulated rainfall enhancement rate of the current hit grid point is zero.

[0013] Furthermore, the method for obtaining the actual rainfall increase rate includes: Based on the operational impact area, hit grid points are selected sequentially according to coordinate order. The current hit grid point and other hit grid points within the search radius are considered as neighboring grid points. A weighted average is calculated based on the simulated rainfall increase rate of the neighboring grid points, and this weighted average is used as the actual rainfall increase rate of the current hit grid point. The search radius ranges from 5 to 10 kilometers. The formula for calculating the actual rainfall increase rate is as follows: ; ; in For the first in the search range The initial weight coefficients corresponding to each precipitation hit grid point For the first Simulated precipitation at each hit grid point Hit grid point Rainfall data on the surface The total number of hit grid points within the search range. Hit grid point The actual rainfall increase rate on the ground For the first The initial weighting coefficients for each precipitation-hit grid point Within the search range The simulated rainfall rate of each hit grid point.

[0014] Furthermore, the method for obtaining the underreported grid point rainfall increase rate includes: Based on the operational impact area, a set of latitude and longitude grid points with actual rainfall increase rates is used as the search space. The search radius is obtained based on the actual rainfall increase rate. Reference grid points are searched using the Cuckoo Search optimization algorithm based on the search space and search radius. Anisotropic corrections are then applied to the search step size based on wind field data from the reanalysis field, resulting in a new set of reference grid points. The correction formula is as follows: ; in For the corrected new nest, is the coordinate vector of the new reference grid set. For the current solution, for the old nest. Step size factor These are Lévy random numbers, generated using the Mantegna algorithm. This is the current optimal solution. For element-wise multiplication, This represents the maximum zonal wind speed. This represents the maximum meridional wind speed. If the number of reference grid points in the new reference grid point set is greater than or equal to 3, then the rainfall increase rate of the missed grid points is recalculated. The formula for recalculating the rainfall increase rate of the missed grid points is as follows: ;

[0015] in To prevent underreporting of rainfall increase rates at grid points, This represents the total number of missed grid points, excluding the missed grid points currently being calculated. For the first Initial weight coefficients for each reference grid point For the first The actual rainfall increase rate at each reference grid point For the first Simulated precipitation at a reference grid point This refers to the precipitation data for the currently underreported grid points; If the number of reference grid points is less than 3, the average actual rainfall increase rate of the operation impact area will be used to assign a value to the current missed grid point.

[0016] Furthermore, the method for obtaining the actual catalytic rain enhancement effect includes: The actual rainfall increase is calculated based on the actual rainfall increase rate, the underreported rainfall increase rate at grid points, and rainfall data in the area affected by the operation. The formula for calculating the actual rainfall increase is as follows: ; in For the first Actual rainfall increase per grid cell, in tens of thousands of tons. For the first Precipitation data for each grid, For the first The actual rainfall increase rate of each grid The grid spacing for precipitation data, The grid spacing for precipitation data, in meters, is obtained based on the latitude and longitude grid resolution. Density of water, unit: kg / m³ 3 ; The actual rainfall increase within the operation's impact area is summed to obtain the total rainfall increase. The total rainfall increase, the weather score, the hit grid points, and the missed grid points are used as the actual catalytic rainfall increase effect. The simulation effect evaluation results are obtained based on the actual catalytic rainfall increase effect and the operation's impact area.

[0017] Compared with the prior art, the embodiments of the present invention have at least the following advantages or beneficial effects: This invention reduces the assumption bias of a single catalytic model by combining multiple catalytic parameter schemes with CMPAS real-world data-constrained simulation, improving the matching degree between simulation results and actual precipitation. It enhances the handling of precipitation differences by incorporating a non-sharpening mask of the wind field and determines the operational impact zone by combining the catalyst vertical integral concentration threshold, making the operational impact zone more closely resemble the physical diffusion process of silver iodide catalysis, thus improving the accuracy of operational impact zone determination. It uses a cuckoo search to screen effective reference grid points, and calculates the rainfall enhancement rate of missed grid points by weighted supplementation when reference grid points are sufficient and by regional average assignment when they are insufficient, ensuring the stability of results in scenarios with insufficient samples, improving the completeness of rainfall enhancement rate calculation, and enhancing the reliability and operational practicality of artificial rain enhancement effect evaluation. This provides precise support for the optimization of subsequent operational plans. Attached Figure Description

[0018] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating the steps of the simulation effect evaluation method for multiple catalytic schemes of artificial rain enhancement under the constraint of real precipitation in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0019] Figure 2 This refers to the operational impact area in this embodiment of the invention.

[0020] Figure 3 This represents the actual catalytic rain enhancement effect in the embodiments of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0021] The technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings of the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. All other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0022] Reference Figure 1 As shown, this invention provides a method for evaluating the simulation effects of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial rain enhancement under the constraint of real-time precipitation, including: Acquire rainfall enhancement data for the area to be evaluated, and preprocess the rainfall enhancement data, which includes reanalysis field data, precipitation data, and artificial weather modification operation information; In the actual assessment, the area to be assessed was selected on August 1, 2024. On that day, the area was affected by a westerly trough system. The meteorological department conducted a combined aircraft and rocket rain enhancement operation. ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis field data was selected, covering an area of ​​(73°E-95°E, 34°N-50°N), including elements such as air pressure, temperature, humidity, and three-dimensional wind field, with a temporal resolution of 1 hour and a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Precipitation data from the meteorological bureau's CMPAS multi-source fusion precipitation gridded product (with a spatial resolution of 1 km and a temporal resolution of 1 hour, unit: mm) was also obtained, covering the operation period from 2024-08-01:08:00 to 2024-08-02:08:00. Rain enhancement operation information from the weather modification center's operational records was also obtained, including the operation team... The operation involved one flight of a flight-based rain enhancement aircraft and six launches of fixed-point rain enhancement rockets. The operational parameters were: aircraft flight time of 6.2 hours, burning of 12 silver iodide smoke sticks (each containing 125g of catalyst), and launching of 48 rockets (each containing 3.6g of catalyst). The reanalysis field data was converted to NetCDF format using CDO and mapped to a 1km×1km grid using bilinear interpolation. The data was aligned with the precipitation data, and anomalous zero values ​​in mountainous areas were removed from the precipitation data. The data was then unified to a 1km×1km grid. The aircraft flight path (82°E-85°E, 42°N-44°N) and rocket station coordinates were associated with the 1km grid. The operation times of the aircraft (09:00-15:20) and rockets (08:30-10:00) were matched to a 1-hour time series. Based on the reanalysis field data, the precipitation process was driven by artificial weather modification operation information without catalysis and by simulated catalysis. The artificial weather modification operation information included different catalytic parameter schemes for silver iodide catalysts. In the actual assessment, the precipitation process was simulated without catalysis using the CMA-CPEFS v2.0 model of the preset platform. The horizontal resolution of the simulation was 1 km, and the vertical stratification of the simulation was set to 51 layers. The boundary layer MYJ, radiation Dudhia-RRTM, and microphysical MYDM7 of the arid zone under assessment were adapted. ERA5 data was used as the boundary condition, the catalysis module was turned off, and 24 hours of catalysis-free simulation was run based on the boundary condition to obtain the catalysis-free simulation results. In the actual evaluation, the catalytic module was activated to simulate the precipitation process using different catalytic parameter schemes. The first 6 hours were for model adjustment, and simulation data was output starting at 08:00. The catalytic parameter schemes included a steady-state calculation scheme for AgI-AgCl catalyst based on DeMott (1995) cloud chamber experiments, a time-varying calculation scheme for AgI-AgCl catalyst based on DeMott (1995) cloud chamber experiments, a time-varying calculation scheme for AgI-AgCl-4NaCl catalyst based on DeMott (1995) cloud chamber experiments, and a scheme based on Xue et al. The following seven catalytic parameter schemes were used: the AgI-AgCl catalyst catalytic simulation parameterization scheme of (2013), the AgI-AgCl catalyst catalytic simulation time-varying calculation scheme based on Feng Daxiong's (1990) cloud chamber experiment, the AgI-AgCl catalyst catalytic simulation parameterization scheme based on Meyers et al. (1995), and the AgI-AgCl catalyst catalytic simulation parameterization scheme based on Hsie et al. (1980). The seven catalytic parameter schemes were run independently. The simulation release logic was that the aircraft released continuously along the route and the rocket released in a pulsed manner according to the station. Other parameters were consistent with the simulation without catalysis. The catalytic precipitation grid data of each scheme were output. The non-catalytic simulation results are used as the precipitation background field. The catalytic simulation results are matched and aligned using latitude and longitude grids and enhanced with a non-sharpening mask. The operational impact area is determined based on the catalytic average value of each catalytic simulation result. In the actual assessment, the results of the uncatalyzed simulation were used as the precipitation background field. The catalyzed simulation results of different catalytic parameter schemes were matched and aligned using latitude and longitude grids. The ensemble mean precipitation field and ensemble variance of the precipitation fields under different catalytic parameter schemes were calculated. Based on the wind field data from the reanalysis field data, the spatial structure-enhanced precipitation field was calculated using the unsharpened mask enhancement formula, where the base sharpening intensity was 0.8, the ensemble variance adjustment parameter was 0.5, and the minimum positive number was 10. -6 Anisotropic advection kernel weights are calculated based on wind field data, with a Gaussian kernel standard deviation of 3 km and a 3×3 convolution window for neighborhood offset indexing. This yields a spatially structure-enhanced precipitation field. Vertical integrated concentration data of silver iodide catalyst particles are extracted. If the difference between the spatially structure-enhanced precipitation field and the background precipitation field is >0.1 mm and the ensemble mean of the catalyst vertical integrated concentration is ≥500 L, then... -2 Then the corresponding latitude and longitude grid area will be taken as the operation impact area, referring to... Figure 2 As shown, the operational impact area covering a total of 2160 1km×1km grid points (81°E-87°E, 42°N-44°N) was obtained; Based on the aforementioned precipitation background field and precipitation data, the simulated precipitation in the operation impact area is evaluated to determine the rain / sunshine score, and the hit and missed grid points of the simulated precipitation are counted. In the actual assessment, the rain / sunshine threshold was 0.1 mm. Based on the statistical grid points in the operational impact area, 482 grid points were hit (simulated as "rainy" and actual as "rainy"), 95 grid points were false alarms (simulated as "rainy" but actual as "no rain"), and 53 grid points were missed (simulated as "no rain" but actual as "rainy"). The TS score was calculated based on the hit, false alarm, and missed grid points. If the TS is greater than 0.7 and the forecast accuracy is 0.639, then the simulated weather trend is reliable. Based on the simulated and actual rainfall increases calculated at the hit grid points, the rainfall increase rate of missed grid points is optimized and supplemented using a cuckoo search based on the actual rainfall increase rate, thereby obtaining an evaluation result of the actual catalytic rainfall increase effect.

[0023] In the actual assessment, the simulated rainfall enhancement rate was calculated based on the precipitation background field of the operation's impact area and the hit grid points. The uncatalyzed precipitation for the hit grid point m3 was 1.8 mm, and the catalyzed precipitation was 3.2 mm, resulting in a simulated rainfall enhancement rate of 77.8%. For the 15 grid points with 0 uncatalyzed precipitation and 8 grid points with simulated precipitation > 0, the maximum rainfall enhancement rate of 92% in the impact area was assigned. For the remaining 7 grid points with 0 catalyzed precipitation, the hit grid points were selected sequentially according to their coordinates within the operation's impact area. The current hit grid point and other hit grid points within the search radius were considered neighboring grid points. A weighted average was calculated based on the simulated rainfall enhancement rates of the neighboring grid points, and this weighted average was used as the actual rainfall enhancement rate for the current hit grid point. This was then calibrated using real-time precipitation data from CMPAS, resulting in an actual rainfall enhancement rate of 75.2% for the m3 hit grid point. In the actual assessment, the set of latitude and longitude grid points with actual rainfall increase rates was used as the search space based on the operational impact area. The search radius was obtained based on the actual rainfall increase rate. Reference grid points were searched using the Cuckoo Search optimization algorithm based on the search space and search radius. The search radius was 5km, the step size factor was 0.1, and each missed grid point corresponded to 10 bird nests. The maximum 10m zonal wind speed in the search space was extracted from the ERA5 reanalysis field as 6.2m / s, and the maximum meridional wind speed was 4.8m / s. This was then analyzed using Manteg... The NA algorithm generates a Lévy random number of 1.5. For each old nest, a new nest is generated using a modified formula. After 50 iterations, the probability is found to be 0.25. Based on the new nests, grid points belonging to the operational impact area and whose actual rainfall increase rate has been calculated are used as reference grid points. If the number after filtering is less than 3, the search radius is expanded to 8km, and the Lévy flight is repeated to generate new reference grid points until a new set of reference grid points with 3 or more is obtained. The rainfall increase rate of missed grid points is calculated using a supplementary calculation formula, and the rainfall increase of all grid points in the impact area is summarized for reference. Figure 3As shown, the 24-hour cumulative rainfall distribution was obtained, and the total actual rainfall was 5.478 million tons. The total rainfall of 5.478 million tons, the clear-rain score of 0.7, the hit grid points and the missed grid points were taken as the actual catalytic rainfall enhancement effect. Based on the actual catalytic rainfall enhancement effect and the impact area of ​​the operation, the simulation effect evaluation results were obtained. Among the seven catalytic parameter schemes, the component ratio of DeMott 1995 was 1:1:0.5, and its simulation effect was the best, with an average deviation of 5.2%.

[0024] In this embodiment, the method for obtaining the rainfall enhancement data includes: Acquire global or regional atmospheric reanalysis field data for the region to be evaluated, convert the reanalysis field data into a numerical model compatible format, and map it to coordinates through bilinear interpolation. The reanalysis field data includes three-dimensional element fields of air pressure, temperature, humidity, and wind field. The reanalysis field data has a time resolution of ≥1 hour and a spatial resolution of ≥0.1 degrees. The compatible format includes NetCDF. Acquire precipitation data and weather modification operation information for the coordinates, remove outlier zero values ​​from the precipitation data, match the weather modification operation information to the time series of reanalysis field data according to the operation time, associate the operation location with the coordinate latitude and longitude, and obtain the rain enhancement data for the area to be evaluated. The spatial resolution of the precipitation data is greater than or equal to 1 kilometer and the temporal resolution is greater than or equal to 1 hour. The artificial rain enhancement operation methods include aircraft, rockets, anti-aircraft guns and smoke generators. The operation location includes operation sites and flight path coordinates.

[0025] In this embodiment, the method for obtaining the catalytic simulation results includes: Based on precipitation data, latitude and longitude grids and precipitation time points are determined. The three-dimensional element field is used as the boundary condition of the latitude and longitude grid according to the reanalysis field data. The operation location, operation time and catalyst dosage are extracted according to the artificial weather modification operation information. Based on the boundary conditions, the precipitation process is simulated without catalyst in the area to be evaluated through a preset platform to obtain the simulation results without catalyst. The number of vertical layers in the simulation without catalyst is greater than or equal to 50, and the simulation time covers the operation time and precipitation time points. Based on the operational location, the trajectory of the aircraft, rockets, anti-aircraft guns, and smoke generators spreading the seeding process is gridded using a latitude and longitude grid. According to the trajectory grid, operational time, catalyst dosage, and boundary conditions, different catalytic parameter schemes are used to simulate the precipitation process, and catalytic simulation results are obtained. The catalytic simulation results include catalytic precipitation grid data and catalyst vertical integral concentration field data. The catalytic parameter schemes include simulation time-varying calculation schemes and simulation steady-state calculation schemes for seven silver iodide catalysts.

[0026] In this embodiment, the method for obtaining the range of the operation's impact area includes: Using the uncatalyzed simulation results as the precipitation background field, the catalyzed simulation results for different catalytic parameter schemes were matched and aligned using latitude and longitude grids. The ensemble mean precipitation field and ensemble variance of the precipitation fields under different catalytic parameter schemes were calculated. Based on the wind field data from the reanalysis field data, the ensemble mean precipitation field was enhanced using an unsharpened mask to obtain a spatially structure-enhanced precipitation field. The formula for the unsharpened mask enhancement is as follows: ; ; in To enhance the precipitation field in spatial structure, For the aggregate mean precipitation field, Background field for precipitation, Base sharpening intensity, This is the set variance adjustment parameter. For the precipitation field with ensemble variance, For grid Standard deviation of precipitation field in neighboring area Small positive number, For the weights of the anisotropic advection kernel, For the meridional grid resolution, For latitudinal grid resolution, The wind speed is in the zonal direction. For meridional wind speed, The characteristic time of advection in the precipitation system, The standard deviation is the Gaussian kernel, and the grid spacing is 2 to 5 times. The neighborhood offset index is the relative coordinate within the convolution kernel window; Based on the spatial structure-enhanced precipitation field, vertical integrated concentration data of silver iodide catalyst particles are obtained. If the ensemble mean of the vertical integrated concentration data is greater than or equal to 500 L... -2 The latitude and longitude grid area is then taken as the scope of the operation impact area, and the ensemble average of the simulated precipitation field is taken as the simulated precipitation amount based on the operation impact area.

[0027] In this embodiment, the method for obtaining the simulated precipitation includes: Based on the impact area of ​​the operation, a weighted average of the catalytic precipitation grid data output by each catalytic parameter scheme is calculated on each latitude and longitude grid. The formula for calculating the weighted average is as follows: ; ; in The average value of the set. No. Catalytic parameter schemes in grid The weighting coefficients on, Number the catalytic parameter scheme. Precipitation data on a latitude and longitude grid. For grid Catalytic precipitation gridded data.

[0028] In this embodiment, the method for obtaining the weather rating includes: Based on the operational impact area, the precipitation background field, precipitation data, and ensemble mean of each grid point are aligned in terms of spatiotemporal resolution according to the latitude and longitude grid. Based on the aligned grid points, the hit grid points, false alarm grid points, and missed grid points are counted. The hit grid points are those where the ensemble mean indicates rain and the precipitation data indicates rain. The false alarm grid points are those where the ensemble mean indicates rain but the precipitation data indicates no rain. The missed grid points are those where the ensemble mean indicates no rain but the precipitation data indicates rain. The TS score is calculated based on the hit grid points, false alarm grid points, and missed alarm grid points. Grid points with a TS score greater than or equal to 0.5 are retained to obtain the weather score.

[0029] In this embodiment, the method for obtaining the simulated rainfall increase rate includes: The simulated rainfall enhancement rate is calculated based on the precipitation background field of the operation's impact area and the hit grid points. If the precipitation in the precipitation background field corresponding to the hit grid point is greater than zero, the simulated rainfall enhancement rate is obtained by dividing the difference between the simulated rainfall and the precipitation in the precipitation background field by the precipitation in the precipitation background field. If the precipitation in the precipitation background field corresponding to the hit grid point is zero and the simulated rainfall is greater than zero, the maximum simulated rainfall enhancement rate in the operation's impact area is taken as the simulated rainfall enhancement rate of the current hit grid point. If the simulated rainfall is also zero, the simulated rainfall enhancement rate of the current hit grid point is zero.

[0030] In this embodiment, the method for obtaining the actual rainfall increase rate includes: Based on the operational impact area, hit grid points are selected sequentially according to coordinate order. The current hit grid point and other hit grid points within the search radius are considered as neighboring grid points. A weighted average is calculated based on the simulated rainfall increase rate of the neighboring grid points, and this weighted average is used as the actual rainfall increase rate of the current hit grid point. The search radius ranges from 5 to 10 kilometers. The formula for calculating the actual rainfall increase rate is as follows: ; ; in For the first in the search range The initial weight coefficients corresponding to each precipitation hit grid point For the first Simulated precipitation at each hit grid point Hit grid point Rainfall data on the surface The total number of hit grid points within the search range. Hit grid point The actual rainfall increase rate on the ground For the first The initial weighting coefficients for each precipitation-hit grid point Within the search range The simulated rainfall rate of each hit grid point.

[0031] In this embodiment, the method for obtaining the underreported grid point rainfall increase rate includes: Based on the operational impact area, a set of latitude and longitude grid points with actual rainfall increase rates is used as the search space. The search radius is obtained based on the actual rainfall increase rate. Reference grid points are searched using the Cuckoo Search optimization algorithm based on the search space and search radius. Anisotropic corrections are then applied to the search step size based on wind field data from the reanalysis field, resulting in a new set of reference grid points. The correction formula is as follows: ; in For the corrected new nest, is the coordinate vector of the new reference grid set. For the current solution, for the old nest. Step size factor These are Lévy random numbers, generated using the Mantegna algorithm. This is the current optimal solution. For element-wise multiplication, This represents the maximum zonal wind speed. This represents the maximum meridional wind speed. If the number of reference grid points in the new reference grid point set is greater than or equal to 3, then the rainfall increase rate of the missed grid points is recalculated. The formula for recalculating the rainfall increase rate of the missed grid points is as follows: ;

[0032] in To prevent underreporting of rainfall increase rates at grid points, This represents the total number of missed grid points, excluding the missed grid points currently being calculated. For the first Initial weight coefficients for each reference grid point For the first The actual rainfall increase rate at each reference grid point For the first Simulated precipitation at a reference grid point This refers to the precipitation data for the currently underreported grid points; If the number of reference grid points is less than 3, the average actual rainfall increase rate of the operation impact area will be used to assign a value to the current missed grid point.

[0033] In this embodiment, the method for obtaining the actual catalytic rain enhancement effect includes: The actual rainfall increase is calculated based on the actual rainfall increase rate, the underreported rainfall increase rate at grid points, and rainfall data in the area affected by the operation. The formula for calculating the actual rainfall increase is as follows: ; in For the first Actual rainfall increase per grid cell, in tens of thousands of tons. For the first Precipitation data for each grid, For the first The actual rainfall increase rate of each grid The grid spacing for precipitation data, The grid spacing for precipitation data, in meters, is obtained based on the latitude and longitude grid resolution. Density of water, unit: kg / m³ 3 ; The actual rainfall increase within the operation's impact area is summed to obtain the total rainfall increase. The total rainfall increase, the weather score, the hit grid points, and the missed grid points are used as the actual catalytic rainfall increase effect. The simulation effect evaluation results are obtained based on the actual catalytic rainfall increase effect and the operation's impact area.

[0034] The above description is merely an example and illustration of the structure of the present invention. Those skilled in the art can make various modifications or additions to the specific embodiments described, or use similar methods to replace them, as long as they do not deviate from the structure of the invention or exceed the scope defined in the claims, all of which should fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the simulation effect of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial rain enhancement under the constraint of real precipitation, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: Acquire rainfall enhancement data for the area to be evaluated, and preprocess the rainfall enhancement data, which includes reanalysis field data, precipitation data, and artificial weather modification operation information; Based on the reanalysis field data, the precipitation process was driven by artificial weather modification operation information without catalysis and by simulated catalysis. The artificial weather modification operation information included different catalytic parameter schemes for silver iodide catalysts. Using the uncatalyzed simulation results as the precipitation background field, the catalyzed simulation results for different catalytic parameter schemes were matched and aligned using latitude and longitude grids. The ensemble mean precipitation field and ensemble variance of the precipitation fields under different catalytic parameter schemes were calculated. Based on the wind field data from the reanalysis field data, the ensemble mean precipitation field was enhanced using an unsharpened mask to obtain a spatially structure-enhanced precipitation field. The formula for the unsharpened mask enhancement is as follows: ； ； in To enhance the precipitation field in spatial structure, For the aggregate mean precipitation field, Background field for precipitation, Base sharpening intensity, This is the set variance adjustment parameter. For the precipitation field with ensemble variance, For grid Standard deviation of precipitation field in neighboring area Small positive number, For the weights of the anisotropic advection kernel, For the meridional grid resolution, For latitudinal grid resolution, The wind speed is in the zonal direction. For meridional wind speed, The characteristic time of advection in the precipitation system, The standard deviation is the Gaussian kernel, and the grid spacing is 2 to 5 times. The neighborhood offset index is the relative coordinate within the convolution kernel window; Based on the spatial structure-enhanced precipitation field, vertical integrated concentration data of silver iodide catalyst particles are obtained. If the ensemble mean of the vertical integrated concentration data is greater than or equal to 500 L... -2 Then the latitude and longitude grid area is taken as the scope of the operation impact area, and the ensemble average of the simulated precipitation field is taken as the simulated precipitation based on the operation impact area; Based on the aforementioned precipitation background field and precipitation data, the simulated precipitation in the operation impact area is evaluated to determine the rain / sunshine score, and the hit and missed grid points of the simulated precipitation are counted. Based on the simulated and actual rainfall increases calculated at the hit grid points, the rainfall increase rate of missed grid points is optimized and supplemented using a cuckoo search based on the actual rainfall increase rate, thereby obtaining an evaluation result of the actual catalytic rainfall increase effect.

2. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial rain enhancement under the constraint of real precipitation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The method for obtaining the rainfall enhancement data includes: Acquire global or regional atmospheric reanalysis field data for the region to be evaluated, convert the reanalysis field data into a numerical model compatible format, and map it to coordinates through bilinear interpolation. The reanalysis field data includes three-dimensional element fields of air pressure, temperature, humidity, and wind field. The reanalysis field data has a time resolution of ≥1 hour and a spatial resolution of ≥0.1 degrees. The compatible format includes NetCDF. Acquire precipitation data and weather modification operation information for the coordinates, remove outlier zero values ​​from the precipitation data, match the weather modification operation information to the time series of reanalysis field data according to the operation time, associate the operation location with the coordinate latitude and longitude, and obtain the rain enhancement data for the area to be evaluated. The spatial resolution of the precipitation data is greater than or equal to 1 kilometer and the temporal resolution is greater than or equal to 1 hour. The artificial rain enhancement operation methods include aircraft, rockets, anti-aircraft guns and smoke generators. The operation location includes operation sites and flight path coordinates.

3. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial rain enhancement under the constraint of real precipitation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The method for obtaining the catalytic simulation results includes: Based on precipitation data, latitude and longitude grids and precipitation time points are determined. The three-dimensional element field is used as the boundary condition of the latitude and longitude grid according to the reanalysis field data. The operation location, operation time and catalyst dosage are extracted according to the artificial weather modification operation information. Based on the boundary conditions, the precipitation process is simulated without catalyst in the area to be evaluated through a preset platform to obtain the simulation results without catalyst. The number of vertical layers in the simulation without catalyst is greater than or equal to 50, and the simulation time covers the operation time and precipitation time points. Based on the operational location, the trajectory of the aircraft, rockets, anti-aircraft guns, and smoke generators spreading the seeding process is gridded using a latitude and longitude grid. According to the trajectory grid, operational time, catalyst dosage, and boundary conditions, different catalytic parameter schemes are used to simulate the precipitation process, and catalytic simulation results are obtained. The catalytic simulation results include catalytic precipitation grid data and catalyst vertical integral concentration field data. The catalytic parameter schemes include simulation time-varying calculation schemes and simulation steady-state calculation schemes for seven silver iodide catalysts.

4. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial rain enhancement under the constraint of real precipitation as described in claim 3, characterized in that, The method for obtaining the simulated precipitation includes: Based on the impact area of ​​the operation, a weighted average of the catalytic precipitation grid data output by each catalytic parameter scheme is calculated on each latitude and longitude grid. The formula for calculating the weighted average is as follows: ； ； in The average value of the set. No. Catalytic parameter schemes in grid The weighting coefficients on, Number the catalytic parameter scheme. Precipitation data on a latitude and longitude grid. For grid Catalytic precipitation gridded data.

5. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial rain enhancement under the constraint of real precipitation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The method for obtaining the weather rating includes: Based on the operational impact area, the precipitation background field, precipitation data, and ensemble mean of each grid point are aligned in terms of spatiotemporal resolution according to the latitude and longitude grid. Based on the aligned grid points, the hit grid points, false alarm grid points, and missed grid points are counted. The hit grid points are those where the ensemble mean indicates rain and the precipitation data indicates rain. The false alarm grid points are those where the ensemble mean indicates rain but the precipitation data indicates no rain. The missed grid points are those where the ensemble mean indicates no rain but the precipitation data indicates rain. The TS score is calculated based on the hit grid points, false alarm grid points, and missed alarm grid points. Grid points with a TS score greater than or equal to 0.5 are retained to obtain the weather score.

6. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial rain enhancement under the constraint of real precipitation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The method for obtaining the simulated rainfall increase rate includes: The simulated rainfall enhancement rate is calculated based on the precipitation background field of the operation's impact area and the hit grid points. If the precipitation in the precipitation background field corresponding to the hit grid point is greater than zero, the simulated rainfall enhancement rate is obtained by dividing the difference between the simulated rainfall and the precipitation in the precipitation background field by the precipitation in the precipitation background field. If the precipitation in the precipitation background field corresponding to the hit grid point is zero and the simulated rainfall is greater than zero, the maximum simulated rainfall enhancement rate in the operation's impact area is taken as the simulated rainfall enhancement rate of the current hit grid point. If the simulated rainfall is also zero, the simulated rainfall enhancement rate of the current hit grid point is zero.

7. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial rain enhancement under the constraint of real precipitation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The method for obtaining the actual rainfall increase rate includes: Based on the operational impact area, hit grid points are selected sequentially according to coordinate order. The current hit grid point and other hit grid points within the search radius are considered as neighboring grid points. A weighted average is calculated based on the simulated rainfall increase rate of the neighboring grid points, and this weighted average is used as the actual rainfall increase rate of the current hit grid point. The search radius ranges from 5 to 10 kilometers. The formula for calculating the actual rainfall increase rate is as follows: ； ； in For the first in the search range The initial weight coefficients corresponding to each precipitation hit grid point For the first Simulated precipitation at each hit grid point Hit grid point Rainfall data on the surface The total number of hit grid points within the search range. Hit grid point The actual rainfall increase rate on the ground For the first The initial weighting coefficients for each precipitation-hit grid point Within the search range The simulated rainfall rate of each hit grid point.

8. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial rain enhancement under the constraint of real precipitation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The method for obtaining the underreported grid point rainfall increase rate includes: Based on the operational impact area, a set of latitude and longitude grid points with actual rainfall increase rates is used as the search space. The search radius is obtained based on the actual rainfall increase rate. Reference grid points are searched using the Cuckoo Search optimization algorithm based on the search space and search radius. Anisotropic corrections are then applied to the search step size based on wind field data from the reanalysis field, resulting in a new set of reference grid points. The correction formula is as follows: ； in For the corrected new nest, is the coordinate vector of the new reference grid set. For the current solution, for the old nest. Step size factor These are Lévy random numbers, generated using the Mantegna algorithm. This is the current optimal solution. For element-wise multiplication, This represents the maximum zonal wind speed. This represents the maximum meridional wind speed. If the number of reference grid points in the new reference grid point set is greater than or equal to 3, then the rainfall increase rate of the missed grid points is recalculated. The formula for recalculating the rainfall increase rate of the missed grid points is as follows: ； in To prevent underreporting of rainfall increase rates at grid points, This represents the total number of missed grid points, excluding the missed grid points currently being calculated. For the first Initial weight coefficients for each reference grid point For the first The actual rainfall increase rate at each reference grid point For the first Simulated precipitation at a reference grid point This refers to the precipitation data for the currently underreported grid points; If the number of reference grid points is less than 3, the average actual rainfall increase rate of the operation impact area will be used to assign a value to the current missed grid point.

9. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial rain enhancement under the constraint of real precipitation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The method for obtaining the actual catalytic rain enhancement effect includes: The actual rainfall increase is calculated based on the actual rainfall increase rate, the underreported rainfall increase rate at grid points, and rainfall data in the area affected by the operation. The formula for calculating the actual rainfall increase is as follows: ； in For the first Actual rainfall increase per grid cell, in tens of thousands of tons. For the first Precipitation data for each grid, For the first The actual rainfall increase rate of each grid The grid spacing for precipitation data. The grid spacing for precipitation data, in meters, is obtained based on the latitude and longitude grid resolution. This refers to the density of water, expressed in kg / m³. 3 ; The actual rainfall increase within the operation's impact area is summed to obtain the total rainfall increase. The total rainfall increase, the weather score, the hit grid points, and the missed grid points are used as the actual catalytic rainfall increase effect. The simulation effect evaluation results are obtained based on the actual catalytic rainfall increase effect and the operation's impact area.

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