Wind turbine speed reserve mode switching method and system based on gust probability prediction, and medium

By adopting a wind turbine speed reserve mode switching method based on gust probability prediction, and utilizing a probability prediction model and dynamic confidence corridor, the problem of the difficulty in characterizing the random fluctuation characteristics of gusts is solved, and the stable switching of wind turbine speed modes and the improvement of grid frequency support capabilities are achieved.

CN122106819APending Publication Date: 2026-05-29HUAZHONG UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
HUAZHONG UNIV OF SCI & TECH
Filing Date
2026-03-13
Publication Date
2026-05-29

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing technologies employ deterministic prediction, have low temporal resolution, and rely on single wind speed data, making it difficult to characterize the random fluctuations of gusts. This leads to delayed, misjudged, and frequent switching decisions for wind turbine mode switching, affecting the stability of wind turbines' ability to support grid frequency.

Method used

By introducing real-time operating status parameters of wind turbines, and using probabilistic prediction models to output predicted mean and standard deviation, a dynamic confidence corridor is constructed. Combined with upper and lower confidence bounds, an intuitive representation of the future wind speed fluctuation range is achieved. By judging the intersection of the confidence corridor and the switching threshold interval, a differentiated decision-making strategy of deterministic or probabilistic assessment is adopted to improve the stability and accuracy of switching decisions.

Benefits of technology

It has improved the stability and accuracy of wind turbine speed standby mode switching, enhanced the wind turbine's ability to support grid frequency, avoided frequent switching problems caused by wind speed fluctuations, and ensured the transient frequency support effect of the wind farm.

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Abstract

The application discloses a wind turbine speed standby mode switching method and system based on gust probability prediction, and a medium, and belongs to the technical field of wind power generation and power grid frequency modulation. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a historical wind speed sequence and a real-time operation state parameter of a wind turbine, inputting the historical wind speed sequence and the real-time operation state parameter into a probability prediction model, obtaining a predicted mean value and a predicted standard deviation of future wind speed, and constructing a dynamic confidence corridor; if an intersection of the dynamic confidence corridor and a preset switching threshold interval is an empty set within a preset continuous time window, then the relative relationship between the dynamic confidence corridor and the preset switching threshold interval is used to control the wind turbine to keep or switch an overspeed load shedding mode or a low-speed load shedding mode; and if the intersection is a non-empty set, then the probability of the future wind speed crossing the switching threshold interval is calculated, and the probability is used to control the wind turbine to keep or switch a current mode. Through implementation of the application, the gust wind speed prediction accuracy can be improved, and then the stability and accuracy of the wind turbine speed standby mode switching can be realized, and the frequency support capability of the wind turbine to a power grid can be improved.
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