Environmental influence prediction apparatus, environmental influence prediction method, and program

Abstract

To predict the influence on an environment by reflecting a technology of which the development is expected.SOLUTION: An environmental influence prediction apparatus 3 which predicts the influence of a predetermined technology on an environment includes: a determination unit 32 which determines whether a roadmap has a future change in an item of a first term which is extracted by comparing the roadmap related to the predetermined technology and a lifecycle flow diagram related to the predetermined technology; a flow generation unit 34 which generates, when the determination unit determines the future change, a new lifecycle flow diagram related to a new technology in the future change; and a calculation unit 35 which calculates environmental load caused by the new technology, using the new lifecycle flow diagram and the roadmap.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to predicting the impact (load, etc.) of a given technology (the latest device, etc.) on the environment from the perspective of environmental contribution, in order to support the formulation of business strategies of companies, etc. [Background technology]

[0002] As the climate change issue becomes more serious, there is a growing movement to reduce CO2 emissions. As the development of technologies that contribute to CO2 reduction becomes more active, there is a growing need to evaluate the amount of CO2 reduction contribution. When planning business strategies from the perspective of environmental contribution, it is meaningful to understand the environmental impact of technologies under development.

[0003] Furthermore, life cycle assessment (LCA) is widely used as a method for quantitatively evaluating the environmental impact of technologies, products, and services. LCA is a method for quantitatively calculating the amount of resources extracted from the environment and the amount of substances discharged into the environment throughout the life of a product or service, from the mining of resources to the manufacture of materials and parts, assembly, and disposal (Non-Patent Document 1). [Prior art documents] [Non-patent literature]

[0004] [Non-Patent Document 1] Atsushi Inaba (ed.), "Revised Edition: Learning LCA through Exercises", pp. 3, 2021 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] However, with conventional LCA, input data such as equipment operating hours and the amount of electricity required for manufacturing remain constant even when new products that reduce CO2 emissions are released, posing challenges when applying this to technologies that are expected to develop in the future.

[0006] The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and has an object to predict the impact on the environment by reflecting technologies that are expected to develop in the future. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] In order to solve the above problem, the disclosure of claim 1 is an environmental impact prediction device that predicts the impact of a specified technology on the environment, the environmental impact prediction device having a judgment unit that judges whether a future change has occurred in the roadmap for an item of a similar first term extracted by comparing a life cycle flow diagram related to the specified technology and a roadmap related to the specified technology, a flow generation unit that generates a new life cycle flow diagram for a new technology in the future change when the judgment unit judges that a future change has occurred, and a calculation unit that calculates the environmental load caused by the new technology using the new life cycle flow diagram and the roadmap. Effect of the Invention

[0008] As described above, the present disclosure has the effect of making it possible to predict the impact on the environment by reflecting technologies that are expected to develop in the future. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0009] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a communication system. [Diagram 2] FIG. 2 is a hardware configuration diagram of the environmental impact prediction device and the communication terminal according to the embodiment. [Diagram 3] 1 is a functional configuration diagram of an environmental impact prediction device according to an embodiment. FIG. [Figure 4] This is a flow diagram of the current life cycle of land-based aquaculture. [Diagram 5] FIG. 1 shows a roadmap for land-based aquaculture. [Figure 6] 1 is a flowchart showing a process for predicting an environmental impact. [Figure 7] 1 is a flowchart showing a process for predicting an environmental impact. [Figure 8] 1 is a flowchart showing a process for predicting an environmental impact. [Figure 9] This is a new LC flow diagram for a closed circulation system of land-based aquaculture. [Figure 10] FIG. 1 is a conceptual diagram of a graph showing the scale coefficients for each year in the LCA calculation formula. [Figure 11] This is a diagram showing the annual environmental load for the old LC flow diagram (current situation) and the new LC flow diagram (closed circulation system). DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0010] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

[0011] [System configuration of the embodiment] First, an outline of the configuration of a communication system according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 1. Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of a communication system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0012] 1, a communication system 1 of this embodiment is constructed by an environmental impact prediction device 3 and a communication terminal 5. The communication terminal 5 is managed and used by a user Y.

[0013] Furthermore, the environmental impact prediction device 3 and the communication terminal 5 can communicate with each other via a communication network 100 such as the Internet. The connection form of the communication network 100 may be either wireless or wired.

[0014] The environmental impact prediction device 3 is configured with one or more computers. When the environmental impact prediction device 3 is configured with multiple computers, it may be referred to as an "environmental impact prediction device" or an "environmental impact prediction system."

[0015] The environmental impact prediction device 3 is a device that supports the planning of business strategies of companies and the like by predicting the impact (load, etc.) of a given technology (the latest device, etc.) on the environment from the perspective of environmental contribution.

[0016] The communication terminal 5 is a computer, and a notebook computer is shown as an example in Fig. 1. In Fig. 1, a user Y operates the communication terminal 5. Note that the environmental impact prediction device 3 may perform processing alone, without using the communication terminal 5.

[0017] [Hardware configuration of the environmental impact prediction device and communication terminal] Next, the hardware configuration of the environmental impact prediction device 3 and the communication terminal 5 will be described with reference to Fig. 2. Fig. 2 is a hardware configuration diagram of the environmental impact prediction device and the communication terminal according to this embodiment. As shown in Fig. 2, the environmental impact prediction device 3 is a computer equipped with a CPU 101, ROM 102, RAM 103, SSD 104, an external device connection I / F (Interface) 105, a network I / F 106, a display 107, an input device 108, a media I / F 109, and a bus line 110, as shown in Fig. 5.

[0018] Of these, the CPU 101 controls the overall operation of the environmental impact prediction device 3. The ROM 102 stores programs such as IPL used to drive the CPU 101. The RAM 103 is used as a work area for the CPU 101.

[0019] The SSD 104 reads and writes various data under the control of the CPU 101. Instead of the SSD 104, a HDD (Hard Disk Drive) may be used.

[0020] The external device connection I / F 105 is an interface for connecting various external devices, such as a display, a speaker, a keyboard, a mouse, a USB memory, and a printer.

[0021] The network I / F 106 is an interface for performing data communication via the communication network 100 .

[0022] The display 107 is a type of display means, such as a liquid crystal display or an organic EL (Electro Luminescence) display, that displays various images.

[0023] The input device 108 is a keyboard, a pointing device, or the like, and is an example of an input means for accepting input operations of characters, numerical values, various instructions, and the like.

[0024] The media I / F 109 controls reading and writing (storing) of data from and to a recording medium 109m such as a flash memory. The recording medium 109m includes DVDs and Blu-ray Discs (registered trademarks).

[0025] The bus line 110 is an address bus, a data bus, or the like for electrically connecting the various components such as the CPU 101 shown in FIG.

[0026] FIG. 2 also shows the hardware configuration of the communication terminal 5, but since each component is similar to that of the environmental impact prediction device 3, a description of these components will be omitted.

[0027] [Functional configuration of the environmental impact prediction device] Next, the functional configuration of the environmental impact prediction device will be described with reference to Fig. 3. Fig. 3 is a functional configuration diagram of the environmental impact prediction device.

[0028] 3, the environmental impact prediction device 3 has an input unit 31, a judgment unit 32, a search unit 33, a flow generation unit 34, a calculation unit 35, and an output unit 36. Each of these units has a function realized by an instruction from the CPU 101 in FIG. 2 based on the above-mentioned program.

[0029] Furthermore, in the RAM 103 or SSD 104 in the environmental impact prediction device 3, a flow DB (Data Base) 41, a roadmap DB 42, a parameter DB 43, a basic unit DB 44, and a consumption amount DB 45 are constructed.

[0030] <Each DB> (Flow DB) The flow DB 41 stores data on various current LC (life cycle) flows. Figure 4 is a life cycle flow diagram of the current land-based aquaculture. Here, the flow in which water is finally discharged is shown. The flow DB 41 stores a plurality of LC flows as shown in Figure 4.

[0031] (Roadmap DB) The roadmap DB 42 stores data on various roadmaps. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a roadmap for land-based aquaculture. Here, technical, social, and economic items are set in chronological order for three layers: technology, market, product or service, and market. Also, highly related items are linked with arrows. For example, for "wastewater treatment," a target of "10% of production using closed circulation systems" is set around 2025, and then a target of "50%" is set around 2030 and "100%" is set around 2040. This is a target value for a country, a company, an economic organization, or an industry organization. Note that this target includes not only a target value but also a forecast value.

[0032] (Parameter DB) The parameter DB 43 stores in advance a parameter of the average CO2 emission coefficient (CO2 reduction rate) per device of various new products. For example, if three companies sell the same type of device, "average" indicates the average CO2 emission coefficient of the devices from the three companies. In this embodiment, it is sufficient to manage the parameter of the average CO2 emission coefficient in order to predict the rough future impact on the environment. Note that the parameter is not limited to the CO2 emission coefficient, and may indicate the emission coefficient of other substances such as fluorocarbon gas, PCB (Poly Chlorinated Biphenyl), and dioxin.

[0033] (Unit price DB) The unit cost DB44 stores data on various units of production (E: environmental impact, etc.). A "unit of production" indicates the amount of fuel, labor, and time required to produce one piece of equipment (product). It is believed that the smaller the unit of production, the more streamlined the production. Currently, in the environmental field, it is also used as an important indicator of energy management and CO2 emissions.

[0034] (Consumption DB) The consumption DB 45 stores data indicating the consumption (C) of resources and the like.

[0035] <Each function configuration> (Input section) The input unit 31 inputs information on the technology to be evaluated and the year to be evaluated from the communication terminal 5. In this embodiment, land-based aquaculture is shown as an example of the technology to be evaluated, and 2020 to 2040 are shown as an example of the year to be evaluated.

[0036] (Judgment Department) The judgment unit 32 reads out a life cycle (LC) flow diagram of the technology to be evaluated from the flow DB 41, and reads out a roadmap (RM) of the technology to be evaluated from the roadmap DB 42. For example, the judgment unit 32 reads out an LC flow diagram of land-based aquaculture shown in Fig. 4 from the flow DB 41, and reads out a roadmap of land-based aquaculture shown in Fig. 5 from the roadmap DB 42.

[0037] Furthermore, the determination unit 32 compares the read LC flow diagram with the roadmap, and extracts similar first terms (for example, "drainage").

[0038] Furthermore, the determination unit 32 determines whether a future change will occur in the item of the first term in the roadmap. For example, in Fig. 5, since the item "10% of production rate by closed circulation system" is linked to the item "wastewater treatment", the determination unit 32 determines that a future change will occur in the roadmap with respect to the first term.

[0039] (Search section) The search unit 33 performs an external search via the communication network 100 using a second term (e.g., "closed circulation system") included in the information on future changes as a search key, and acquires a corresponding third term (e.g., "filtration"). For example, the search unit 33 searches a sentence in which a closed circulation system is described by an external search, finds that "filtration" is necessary to adopt a "closed circulation system", and acquires the term "filtration" associated with the "closed circulation system".

[0040] In addition, the search unit 33 performs an external search via the communication network 100 to obtain information on a new device (e.g., a "filtration device") to be added to or to replace the currently used device (e.g., a "filtration device") in order to realize the content of a third term (e.g., "filtration").

[0041] (Flow Generation Part) The flow generation unit 34 generates a new LC flow diagram as shown in Fig. 9 for a new technology in a future change, using information on a new device (e.g., a "filtration device") to be added or substituted acquired by the search unit 33. Fig. 9 is a new LC flow diagram for a closed circulation type land-based aquaculture. As shown in Fig. 9, the new LC flow diagram shows a change from "discharge" to "filtration".

[0042] In addition, the flow generating unit 34 judges whether or not the roadmap contains specific numerical values ​​related to time changes. In this case, since the roadmap contains "10%", "50%", and "100%" as shown in Fig. 5, the flow generating unit 34 judges that the roadmap contains specific numerical values ​​related to time changes.

[0043] If the roadmap does not include specific numerical values ​​relating to time changes, user Y inputs specific numerical values ​​to environmental impact prediction device 3 via communication terminal 5. As a result, input unit 31 accepts the input of specific numerical values.

[0044] (Calculation section) The calculation unit 35 searches the parameter DB 43 using information on the device (e.g., “filtration device”) as a search key, and reads out a parameter (e.g., “CO2 emission coefficient”) related to the average environmental load per unit of the new device (e.g., “filtration device”) that has been added or replaced.

[0045] The calculation unit 35 also calculates the scale coefficient s of the LCA formula based on specific values ​​(10%, 50%, 100%, etc.) related to time changes in the roadmap and the calculated parameters (CO2 emission coefficient, etc.). FIG. 10 is a conceptual diagram of a graph showing the scale coefficients for each year of the LCA formula described below. As shown in FIG. 10, parameters (CO2 emission coefficient, etc.) are shown for each elapsed year. FIG. 10 shows that when a new filtration device currently on the market is installed on an already installed device, or when an already installed device is replaced with a new filtration device currently on the market, the rate of CO2 emissions in 2040 will be approximately 40% based on 2020.

[0046] Furthermore, the calculation unit 35 reads out the unit of environmental load (e.g., "CO2 emissions") from the unit of load DB 44, reads out the consumption of resources (e.g., "oil" and "coal") from the consumption DB 45, and calculates the environmental load for each year using the LCA calculation formula shown in (Formula 1) for the old LC flow diagram (e.g., for "wastewater") and the new LC flow diagram (e.g., for "filtration"). In this case, the calculation unit 35 reads out the scale coefficient s for each year of the evaluation target years (e.g., "2020 to 2040") from the graph shown in FIG.

[0047]

number

[0048] [Processing or Operation of the Embodiment] Next, the processing or operation of this embodiment will be described in detail with reference to Figures 6 to 8. Figures 6 to 8 are flowcharts showing the processing for predicting environmental impacts.

[0049] S11: The input unit 31 inputs, from the communication terminal 5, information on the technology to be evaluated and the year to be evaluated.

[0050] S12: The judgment unit 32 reads out the LC flow diagram of the technology to be evaluated from the flow DB 41, and reads out the roadmap of the technology to be evaluated from the roadmap DB .

[0051] S13: The determination unit 32 compares the read LC flow diagram with the roadmap, and extracts similar first terms (for example, "drainage").

[0052] S14: The determination unit 32 determines whether or not there will be a future change in the item of the first term in the roadmap. If there is no change (NO), the process of predicting the environmental impact ends.

[0053] S15: On the other hand, if a change has occurred (S15; YES), the search unit 33 performs an external search via the communication network 100 using the second term (e.g., "closed loop") included in the information on future changes as a search key, and obtains the corresponding third term (e.g., "filtration").

[0054] S16: The search unit 33 performs an external search via the communication network 100 to obtain information on a new device (e.g., a "filtration device") to be added to or to replace the currently used device (e.g., a "filtration device") in order to realize the content of the third term (e.g., "filtration").

[0055] S17: The flow generating unit 34 generates a new LC flow diagram as shown in FIG. 9, using the information of the new device (eg, "filtering device") to be added or substituted, acquired by the searching unit 33.

[0056] S18: The flow generating unit 34 judges whether or not the roadmap contains specific numerical values ​​related to time changes. If the roadmap contains specific numerical values ​​(YES), the process of S19 is omitted.

[0057] S19: If the roadmap does not include a specific numerical value (S18; NO), the input unit 31 accepts an input from the user Y of a specific numerical value (10%, 50%, 100%, etc.) relating to a change over time.

[0058] S20: The calculation unit 35 searches the parameter DB 43 using information about the device (e.g., “filtration device”) as a search key, and reads out a parameter (e.g., “CO2 emission coefficient”) related to the average environmental load per unit of the new device (e.g., “filtration device”) that has been added or replaced.

[0059] S21: The calculation unit 35 calculates a scale coefficient s of the LCA formula based on specific values ​​(10%, 50%, 100%, etc.) relating to time changes in the roadmap and the calculated parameters (CO2 emission coefficient, etc.).

[0060] S22: The calculation unit 35 reads out the unit of environmental load (e.g., "CO2 emissions") from the unit of load DB 44, reads out the consumption amount of resources (e.g., "oil", "coal") from the consumption amount DB 45, and calculates the environmental load for each year using the LCA formula shown in (Equation 1) for the old LC flow diagram (e.g., for "wastewater") and the new LC flow diagram (e.g., for "filtration").

[0061] S23: Finally, the calculation result as shown in FIG. 11 is output.

[0062] [Effects of the embodiment] As described above, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to predict the impact on the environment by reflecting technologies that are expected to develop in the future. More specifically, it is possible to predict the impact on the environment by reflecting future production efficiency and changes over time in the external environment.

[0063] 〔supplement〕 The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and may have the following configurations or processes (operations). (1) The environmental impact prediction device 3 can be realized by a computer and a program, but this program can also be recorded on a (non-transitory) recording medium or provided via a communication network 100. (2) In the communication between the environmental impact prediction device 3 and the communication terminal 5, another device (such as a server or a router) may relay the data. (3) In the above embodiment, a notebook computer is shown as an example of the communications terminal 5, but this is not limited to this and may be, for example, a desktop computer, a tablet terminal, a smartphone, a smart watch, a car navigation device, a refrigerator, a microwave oven, etc. (4) In the processing of the determination unit 32, the search unit 33, or the flow generation unit 34, a neural network may be used. [Explanation of symbols]

[0064] 1. Communication Systems 3. Environmental Impact Prediction Device 5. Communication terminals 31 Input section 32 Judgment Department 33 Search Department 34 Flow Generation Unit 35 Calculation section 36 Output section 41 Flow DB (an example of a flow management section) 42 Roadmap DB (an example of the roadmap management section) 43 Parameter DB (an example of the parameter management section) 44 Basic unit DB (Example of Basic Unit Management Department) 45 Consumption DB (an example of the consumption management section)

Claims

1. An environmental impact prediction device that predicts the impact of a predetermined technology on the environment, A determination unit that determines whether a future change occurs in the roadmap for an item of a similar first term extracted by comparing the life cycle flow diagram for the predetermined technology and the roadmap for the predetermined technology; a flow generation unit that generates a new life cycle flow diagram for a new technology in a future change when the determination unit determines that a future change has occurred; a calculation unit that calculates an environmental load caused by the new technology using the new life cycle flow diagram and the roadmap; An environmental impact prediction device having the above structure.

2. 2. The environmental impact prediction device according to claim 1, a search unit that performs an external search based on a second term included in the information indicating the future change, acquires a corresponding third term, and further performs an external search to acquire information on a new device to be added or substituted in order to realize the content of the third term; The flow generation unit generates the new life cycle flow diagram using information about the new device. Environmental impact prediction device.

3. 3 . The environmental impact prediction device according to claim 1 , wherein the calculation unit calculates the environmental load caused by the new technology using a parameter related to an average environmental load per unit of the new device.

4. The environmental impact prediction device according to claim 3 , wherein the calculation unit calculates the environmental load caused by the new technology by using a numerical value related to a time change in the future change in the roadmap.

5. The environmental impact prediction device according to claim 4 , wherein the calculation unit calculates the environmental load caused by the new technology using the basic unit of the environmental load and a consumption amount of resources.

6. An environmental impact prediction method executed by an environmental impact prediction device that predicts the impact of a predetermined technology on the environment, comprising: The environmental impact prediction device includes: A determination process for determining whether a future change has occurred in the roadmap for an item of a similar first term extracted by comparing the life cycle flow diagram for the predetermined technology and the roadmap for the predetermined technology; a flow generation process for generating a new life cycle flow diagram for a new technology in the future change when it is determined that a future change has occurred by the determination process; A calculation process for calculating an environmental load caused by the new technology using the new life cycle flow diagram and the roadmap; An environmental impact prediction method that performs.

7. A program causing a computer to execute the method according to claim 6.

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