Power supply and demand management device and power supply and demand management method

Abstract

To enable efficient power supply and demand management.SOLUTION: A power supply and demand management device 100 includes a supply management unit 111 that receives a power supply plan including a supply plan value that is a time slot for scheduled power supply and an amount of power to be supplied from a power supply system 510, a memory unit 130 that stores past power supply plans and actual supply values that are amounts of power actually supplied in the time slots of the power supply plan, and a supply reliability calculation unit 114 that calculates supply reliability of the supply plan value included in the power supply plan on the basis of the supply plan value and actual supply value included in the past power supply plan and the supply plan value included in the power supply plan.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an electric power supply and demand management device and an electric power supply and demand management method. [Background technology]

[0002] Towards a decarbonized society, trading of electricity generated by renewable energy sources between business operators is attracting attention. In order to trade electricity efficiently by realizing the supply of the same amount of electricity as planned, electricity supply business operators predict the amount of electricity to be supplied and formulate electricity supply plans. Patent Documents 1 and 2 describe inventions that predict the amount of electricity to be generated.

[0003] The power generation prediction device described in Patent Document 1 for predicting the amount of power generated by a distributed power source includes a power generation calculation unit that calculates multiple predicted values ​​for the amount of power generated by the distributed power source at a specified date and time based on a prediction formula that indicates the relationship between the amount of power generated by the distributed power source and weather information at the location of the distributed power source and multiple weather forecast values ​​for the specified date and time at the location of the distributed power source. The power generation prediction device also includes a reliability determination unit that determines the reliability of the predicted amount of power generation based on the distribution of the multiple predicted values.

[0004] The solar power generation estimation system described in Patent Document 2 includes a communication means for periodically obtaining the power generation amount of a solar power generation device connected to a power distribution system, a first database for storing time series data of the power generation amount, a second database for storing map information of an area including the power distribution system, a third database for storing meteorological information of the area including the power distribution system, a calculation means, and a monitor, and is characterized in that the calculation means obtains an estimated power generation amount of the second solar power generation device at the predicted time together with information on the reliability of the estimation using map information of the area including the installation positions of the first solar power generation device and the second solar power generation device connected to the power distribution system, meteorological information, and time series data of the measured solar power generation amount. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0005] [Patent Document 1] JP 2016-073156 A [Patent Document 2] JP 2013-246746 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0006] The technologies of Patent Documents 1 and 2 calculate the reliability of the predicted power generation amount based on the information of the power generation amount prediction of the power supply system calculated by the power supply business operator. When managing the supply and demand of electricity, the power supply plan including the supply plan value submitted by the power supply business operator does not necessarily include the reliability. Even if the reliability is submitted, the reliability is a value calculated by each power supply business operator (power supply system), and it is not suitable for comparing the reliability with other reliability.

[0007] In one example of power trading, a power supply business operator and a power demand business operator submit a power supply plan and a power demand plan to a power retail business operator for each time slot, and supply and demand are matched. In such power trading, the power retail business operator cannot determine which of the power supply plans submitted by a plurality of power supply business operators will be accurately supplied, and bears the risk of difference compensation. Specifically, the supply of power generated by renewable energy is insufficient with respect to the supply plan value in the power supply plan, and the power demand business operator cannot supply a specified amount of power to the demand. Therefore, the power demand business operator cannot achieve the target renewable energy rate. The power retail business operator is subject to processing risks such as compensation for this renewable energy difference. Therefore, the power retail business operator needs to determine which power supply plan will be reliably supplied and efficiently match supply and demand. However, it is difficult to determine which power supply plan will be accurately supplied only from the information on the power supply plan of the power supply business operator.

[0008] When aiming for power management on an hourly basis or less, the challenge becomes more pronounced because supply and demand matching processing occurs for each short time slot. In addition, it is difficult for power retailers to estimate the difference, and it is difficult to prepare the amount of power required for the difference compensation processing in advance and supply the specified amount of power. For this reason, there is a need to improve the efficiency of power supply and demand management, including making it possible to judge the merits of power supply plans and reducing the cost of difference compensation processing by estimating power supply and demand with high accuracy.

[0009] The present invention has been made in view of the above background, and an object of the present invention is to provide a power supply and demand management device and a power supply and demand management method that enable efficient power supply and demand management. [Means for solving the problem]

[0010] In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, the power supply and demand management device of the present invention includes a supply management unit that receives a power supply plan from a power supply system, the power supply plan including a time slot for scheduled power supply and a supply plan value that is the amount of power to be scheduled to be supplied, a memory unit that stores the past power supply plan and an actual supply value that is the amount of power actually supplied in the time slot of the power supply plan, and a supply reliability calculation unit that calculates the supply reliability of the supply plan value included in the power supply plan based on the supply plan value and the actual supply value included in the past power supply plan and the supply plan value included in the power supply plan. Effect of the Invention

[0011] According to the present invention, it is possible to provide a power supply and demand management device and a power supply and demand management method that enable efficient power supply and demand management. Problems, configurations, and effects other than those described above will become apparent from the following description of the embodiments. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0012] [Figure 1] 1 is an overall configuration diagram of a power supply and demand management system according to a first embodiment. [Diagram 2]3 is a diagram showing a data configuration of a power supply plan transmitted by the power supply system according to the first embodiment. FIG. [Diagram 3] FIG. 2 is a data configuration diagram of a supply management database according to the first embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 2 is a data configuration diagram of a demand management database according to the first embodiment. [Diagram 5] 4 is a flowchart of a supply reliability statistical model generation process according to the first embodiment. [Figure 6] 4 is a flowchart of a power supply and demand management process according to the first embodiment. [Figure 7] FIG. 11 is a functional block diagram of a power supply and demand management device according to a second embodiment. [Figure 8] 13 is a flowchart of a total supply power prediction process according to the second embodiment. [Figure 9] 13 is a graph for explaining a corrected supply plan value according to the second embodiment. [Figure 10] FIG. 11 is a functional block diagram of a power supply and demand management device according to a third embodiment. [Figure 11] FIG. 11 is a data configuration diagram of a demand management database according to the third embodiment. [Figure 12] FIG. 13 is a functional block diagram of a power supply and demand management device according to a fourth embodiment. [Figure 13] FIG. 13 is a data configuration diagram of a supply management database according to the fourth embodiment. [Figure 14] FIG. 13 is a data configuration diagram of a demand management database according to the fourth embodiment. [Figure 15] FIG. 13 is a functional block diagram of a power supply and demand management device according to a fifth embodiment. [Figure 16] FIG. 13 is a data configuration diagram of a demand management database according to the fifth embodiment. [Figure 17] 13 is a data example of a supply management database according to the fifth embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0013] <Outline of the power supply and demand management device> The power supply and demand management device in the form (embodiment) for carrying out the present invention will be described below. The power supply and demand management device calculates supply reliability based on supply plan values ​​submitted by the power supply business operator, weather forecasts, power source types, etc. Supply reliability is the probability that the difference between the supply plan value and the actual supply value (actual supply value) is equal to or less than a predetermined value, and is calculated using a statistical model. A power supply and demand manager using the power supply and demand management device can reduce the probability of a shortage in power supply to the power demand business operator by, for example, preferentially matching a power supply plan with high supply reliability with a power demand plan based on the supply reliability. This enables the power supply and demand manager to efficiently supply and demand power and reduce the cost of difference compensation processing. The power supply and demand management device estimates the supply value that maximizes the supply reliability and sets it as the corrected supply plan value. By calculating the sum of all the corrected supply plan values, a highly reliable forecast value of the total power supply amount can be obtained, and the difference compensation process can be made more efficient.

[0014] First embodiment: Overview of power supply and demand management system 1 is an overall configuration diagram of a power supply and demand management system 10 according to the first embodiment. The power supply and demand management system 10 includes a power supply system 510, a power demand system 520, and a power supply and demand management device 100. The power supply system 510, the power demand system 520, and the power supply and demand management device 100 are connected via an information and communication network and are capable of data communication with each other.

[0015] The power supply system 510 includes, for example, a power generation facility using renewable energy, and supplies the generated power to the power demand system 520 via a power network 530. The power supply system 510 transmits a power supply plan including the amount of power to be supplied in the future (see time slots described later) to the power supply and demand management device 100 via an information and communication network. The power supply system 510 is operated, for example, by a power supply company.

[0016] Fig. 2 is a diagram showing the data configuration of a power supply plan transmitted by the power supply system 510 according to the first embodiment. The power supply plan includes the date (year, month, and date) when power will be supplied, the time slot which is the time period when power will be supplied, the power type, the power source type, and the supply plan value (shown as "power amount" in Fig. 2). The power supply plan shown in Fig. 2 indicates that 300 kWh of power with the power type "T1" and the power source type "P1" will be supplied for 30 minutes from 10:00 on August 1, 2022.

[0017] An example of the power type is electricity from renewable energy. Also, an example of the power source type is solar power generation, wind power generation, etc. In Fig. 2, the length of the time slot is 30 minutes, but it may be other time units such as 15 minutes. In the following description, the time slot length is 30 minutes.

[0018] Returning to FIG. 1, the explanation of the power supply and demand management system 10 will be continued. The power demand system 520 procures power to be used in, for example, a factory from the power supply system 510 via a power network 530. The power demand system 520 transmits a power demand plan including the amount of power to be used in the future (see time slots) to the power supply and demand management device 100 via an information and communication network. The power demand plan has the same configuration as the power supply plan (see FIG. 2), but the amount of power is a demand plan value. The power demand system 520 is operated, for example, by a power demand business operator.

[0019] <Configuration of the power supply and demand management device> The power supply and demand management device 100 performs power supply and demand matching based on the power supply plan and the power demand plan for each time slot. For example, when the power supply plan value and time slot of a power from a certain power supply system 510 match with the demand plan value and time slot of a certain power demand system 520, the power supply and demand management device 100 contracts the power supply (power supply plan) and demand (power demand plan) between the power supply system 510 and the power demand system 520.

[0020] The power supply and demand management device 100 is a computer, and includes a control unit 110, a storage unit 130, and an input / output unit 180. User interface devices such as a display, a keyboard, and a mouse are connected to the input / output unit 180. The input / output unit 180 includes a communication device, and is capable of transmitting and receiving data to and from a power supply system 510 and a power demand system 520.

[0021] <Electricity supply and demand management device: memory unit> The storage unit 130 includes storage devices such as a read only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), and a solid state drive (SSD). The storage unit 130 stores a supply management database 210, a demand management database 230, a weather information database 250, a power supply information database 260, a supply reliability statistical model 131, and a program 138. The program 138 includes descriptions of a supply reliability statistical model generation process (see FIG. 5) and a power supply and demand management process (see FIG. 6), which will be described later.

[0022] <Memory section: supply management database> Fig. 3 is a data configuration diagram of the supply management database 210 according to the first embodiment. The supply management database 210 is data in a table format, with one row (record) indicating information related to one power supply plan (see Fig. 2). The column (attribute) configuration is explained below. The day, time slot, power type, power source type, and power amount correspond to the day, time slot, power type, power source type, and power amount, respectively, of the power supply plan (see Fig. 2).

[0023] The management identification information (denoted as “management ID” in FIG. 3) is identification information of a record in the supply management database 210. The supplier identification information (denoted as "supplier ID" in FIG. 3) is identification information of the power supply system 510 that transmitted the power supply plan on which the record is based.

[0024] The supply reliability is the probability that the difference between the actual supply amount (actual supply value) of the power supply system 510 indicated in the supplier identification information during the time slot and the supply plan value indicated in the power amount is equal to or less than a predetermined value. A method for calculating the supply reliability will be described later. The actual energy amount is the actual amount of energy supplied (actual supply value). In Fig. 3, since the time slot is in the future, the actual energy amount is unknown and is "NA" (Not Applicable or Not Available). The actual supply value is stored in the actual energy amount after the time slot indicated.

[0025] So far, we have explained the configuration of the supply management database 210. Records based on past supply plan values ​​and actual supply values ​​may be added as appropriate to the supply management database 210. In this way, it is possible to deal with a lack of data in the initial stage of operation of the power supply and demand management device 100.

[0026] As described above, the power supply and demand management device 100 includes the storage unit 130 that stores past power supply plans and actual supply values ​​that are amounts of power actually supplied in time slots of the power supply plans (see the supply management database 210). Alternatively, the storage unit 130 stores the past power supply plans and actual supply values ​​that are amounts of power actually supplied in time slots of the power supply plans, in association with the power supply system 510.

[0027] <Memory section: Demand management database> Fig. 4 is a data configuration diagram of the demand management database 230 according to the first embodiment. The demand management database 230 is data in a table format, with one row (record) indicating information related to one power demand plan. The columns (attributes) of day, time slot, power type, and power source type are the same as those of the supply management database 210 (see Fig. 3).

[0028] The management identification information (denoted as “management ID” in FIG. 4) is identification information of a record in the demand management database 230. The amount of power is the amount of power demand planned to be included in the power demand plan. The consumer identification information (denoted as "consumer ID" in FIG. 4) is identification information of the power demand system 520 that transmitted the power demand plan on which the record is based. The actual energy amount is the actual energy demand (demand performance value). In Fig. 4, since the time slot is a future time, the actual energy amount is unknown and is "NA". The demand performance value is stored in the actual energy amount after the time period indicated by the time slot.

[0029] <Memory section: weather information database and power supply information database> Returning to Fig. 1, the description of storage unit 130 will be continued. Weather information for a location where a power generation facility of power supply system 510 is located is stored in weather information database 250. Future weather information (weather forecast information) for that location at the time when power supply system 510 transmits a power supply plan may be stored in weather information database 250. The power source information database 260 stores information such as the location of each power generation facility in the power supply system 510, the number of years of power generation (the number of years since power generation began), and the type of power source (photovoltaic power generation, wind power generation, etc.).

[0030] <Memory section: supply reliability statistical model> The supply reliability statistical model 131 is a statistical model (machine learning model) that calculates the probability that the power supply system 510 will supply an amount of power that is within an error between the amount of power in the power supply plan (supply plan value) and a predetermined value during a time slot. The input (explanatory variables) of the supply reliability statistical model 131 includes the supply plan value. The input may further include weather forecast information at the location where the power generation facility is located, the location of the power generation facility, weather information for the location for a predetermined period of time in the past, weather forecast for the previous period, supply plan value for the previous period, actual supply value for the previous period, number of years of power generation, power type, power source type, and time period (month, day, hour, minute). The input may further include supplier identification information of the power supply system 510. In this way, the power supply reliability statistical model 131 that reflects the characteristics of each power supply system 510 can be generated.

[0031] The supply reliability statistical model 131 can be regarded as a statistical model that calculates supply reliability by defining it as a binary classification problem that predicts whether or not the power supply of the supply plan value will be fulfilled from the input (the value of the explanatory variable). Here, fulfillment indicates, for example, that the difference between the supply plan value (see the power amount in FIG. 3) and the actual supply value (see the actual power amount in FIG. 3) is within a predetermined value, and non-fulfillment indicates, for example, that the difference between the supply plan value (see the power amount in FIG. 3) and the actual supply value (see the actual power amount in FIG. 3) exceeds a predetermined value.

[0032] A specific example of constructing the supply reliability statistical model 131 using a neural network is shown below. Here, a performance result r is defined as 1 in the case of performance and 0 in the case of non-performance, and this performance result r is calculated for an input including a supply plan value in a time slot.

[0033] The parameter values ​​included in the neural network can be updated so that the probability distribution defined by the neural network approaches the true distribution of the performance result r. Since the probability distribution of the performance result r is actually unknown, the empirical distribution of the performance result r is calculated from historical data. A model is constructed so that the probability distribution defined by the neural network approaches this empirical distribution. For example, the parameter values ​​can be updated using gradient descent method by using binary cross entropy as the objective function so that the error between the empirical distribution and the probability distribution defined by the neural network is minimized. With the above formulation, the supply reliability, which indicates the probability (performance probability) that the error between the supply plan value and the supply actual value is within a predetermined value, can be calculated using the output of the neural network.

[0034] The neural network may include, for example, a network structure of an encoder and a decoder. In this structure, past time-series data including the history of supply plan values, the history of actual supply values, the history of weather, and the history of weather forecasts are input to the encoder, whereby features in the past time-series data are extracted as output, and non-time-series data including the supply plan values ​​and the output of the encoder are input to the decoder, whereby the supply reliability for the supply plan values ​​can be efficiently calculated.

[0035] <Electricity supply and demand management device: control unit> The control unit 110 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and is provided with a supply management unit 111, a demand management unit 112, a model generation unit 113, a supply reliability calculation unit 114, and a supply and demand matching unit 115. The control unit 110 may include a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), etc.

[0036] <Control section: Supply management section> The supply management unit 111 receives a power supply plan (see FIG. 2) from the power supply system 510, assigns management identification information and supplier identification information, and stores the plan in the supply management database 210 (see FIG. 3). After the time indicated in the time slot has elapsed, the supply management unit 111 also receives a supply performance value from the power supply system 510, and stores the value in the attribute of the corresponding actual power value.

[0037] As described above, the power supply and demand management device 100 includes the supply management unit 111 that receives, from the power supply system 510, a power supply plan including time slots for scheduled power supply and supply plan values ​​that are the amount of power to be supplied.

[0038] <Control section: Demand management section> Demand management unit 112 receives a power demand plan from power demand system 520, assigns management identification information and demander identification information, and stores the plan in demand management database 230 (see FIG. 4). In addition, demand management unit 112 receives a demand actual value from power demand system 520 after the time indicated in the time slot has elapsed, and stores the value in the attribute of the corresponding actual power value.

[0039] <Control section: Model generation section> The model generation unit 113 prepares data for generation (learning data) of the supply reliability statistical model 131 to generate the supply reliability statistical model 131. The data for generation is a collection of individual data including inputs (explanatory variables) and outputs (objective variables). The individual data is generated from individual records in the supply management database 210 from the past (the time slot is past).

[0040] The input includes a supply plan value. The input may further include weather forecast information at the location where the power generation facility is located, the location of the power generation facility, weather information for the location for a specified period in the past, weather forecast for the specified period in the past, a supply plan value for the specified period in the past, an actual supply value for the specified period in the past, years of power generation, power type, power source type, time period (month, day, hour, minute), and supplier identification information.

[0041] The output (power supply performance result) is 1 if the difference between the supply plan value (see power amount in FIG. 3) and the supply performance value (see actual power amount in FIG. 3) is within a predetermined value, i.e., performance, and 0 if it exceeds the predetermined value. It may be 1 if the ratio of the supply performance value to the supply plan value is within a predetermined range (for example, the difference from 1 is within a predetermined value), and 0 if it is outside the predetermined range. Also, if the demand performance value is less than the demand plan value and there is power supply that satisfies the demand performance value, it may be 1 even if the difference between the supply plan value and the supply performance value exceeds a predetermined value.

[0042] The model generation unit 113 creates such generation data and uses the generation data to generate (train) the supply reliability statistical model 131. The statistical model may be a decision tree, a regression model, or the like, in addition to a neural network.

[0043] <Control unit: Supply reliability calculation unit> The supply reliability calculation unit 114 uses the supply reliability statistical model 131 to calculate the supply reliability based on the supply plan value, and stores the calculated supply reliability in the supply management database 210. Note that the input to the supply reliability statistical model 131 by the supply reliability calculation unit 114 may include weather forecast information at the location where the power generation facility is located, the position of the location where the power generation facility is located, weather information for the location for a specified period of time in the past, weather forecasts for the specified period of time in the past, supply plan values ​​for the specified period of time in the past, actual supply values ​​for the specified period of time in the past, years of power generation, power type, power source type, time period (month, day, hour, minute), and supplier identification information.

[0044] As described above, the power supply and demand management device 100 includes the supply reliability calculation unit 114 that calculates the supply reliability of the supply plan value included in the power supply plan based on the supply plan value and the actual supply value included in the past power supply plan and the supply plan value included in the power supply plan. In other words, the supply reliability calculation unit 114 calculates the supply reliability of the supply plan value included in the power supply plan by using the supply reliability statistical model 131 generated based on the supply plan value and the actual supply value included in the past power supply plan.

[0045] The supply reliability calculation unit 114 calculates the supply reliability based on the planned supply value as well as weather forecast information at the location where the power generation facility related to the power supply system 510 is located. The supply reliability calculation unit 114 calculates the supply reliability based on the power supply system 510 that has transmitted the power supply plan including the supply plan value in addition to the supply plan value.

[0046] <Control unit: Supply and demand matching unit> The supply and demand matching unit 115 performs supply and demand matching between the power supply plan and the power demand plan to make a contract. For example, the supply and demand matching unit 115 matches a power supply plan that matches the time slot, power type, power source type, and power amount with the power demand plan to make a contract. The supply and demand matching unit 115 may perform matching and make a contract even when the supply plan value is equal to or greater than the demand plan value. The supply and demand matching unit 115 may preferentially match and make a contract with a power supply plan with a high supply reliability.

[0047] <<Supply reliability statistical model generation process>> FIG. 5 is a flowchart of the supply reliability statistical model generation process according to the first embodiment. In step S11, the model generation unit 113 starts the process of repeating step S12 for each record in the supply management database 210 (see FIG. 3) whose time slot is in the past. In step S12, the model generation unit 113 references the data included in the record and the meteorological information database 250 to generate individual data for the generation data. In step S13, the model generation unit 113 generates a supply reliability statistical model 131 using the generation data.

[0048] <Electricity supply and demand management processing> 6 is a flowchart of the power supply and demand management process according to the first embodiment. The power supply and demand management process is repeatedly executed for each time slot a predetermined time before the time slot indicated by the day and time slot. Hereinafter, the time slot to be processed is referred to as the processing target time slot.

[0049] In step S21, the supply reliability calculation unit 114 starts the process of repeating step S22 for each record in the supply management database 210 whose day and time slot are the processing time period. In step S22, the supply reliability calculation unit 114 calculates the supply reliability of the power supply plan indicated by the record using the supply reliability statistical model 131, and stores the calculated supply reliability in the supply management database 210 (see FIG. 3).

[0050] In step S23, the supply and demand matching unit 115 matches an electricity supply plan in the supply management database 210, in which the day and time slot indicate the time period to be processed, with an electricity demand plan in the demand management database 230, in which the day and time slot indicate the time period to be processed, and concludes an agreement.

[0051] <<First embodiment: Features of the power supply and demand management device>> The power supply and demand management device 100 calculates the supply reliability based on the power supply plan using the supply reliability statistical model 131. The supply reliability is the probability that the power supply system 510 will supply the power of the supply plan value. The power supply and demand manager who uses the power supply and demand management device 100 compares the merits of the power supply plans from the power supply system 510 based on the calculated supply reliability and performs matching taking into account the certainty of the power supply plans (the magnitude of the supply reliability), thereby reducing the cost of compensating for the difference and improving the efficiency of supply and demand management of power from renewable energy.

[0052] Second Embodiment The power supply and demand management device 100 of the first embodiment calculates the supply reliability based on the supply plan value and weather forecast information. In the second embodiment, the forecast of the power supply amount (corrected supply plan value) is calculated. In other words, the forecast of the power supply amount is the supply plan value that maximizes the supply reliability, and is the most likely power supply amount.

[0053] Second embodiment: Configuration of power supply and demand management device Fig. 7 is a functional block diagram of a power supply and demand management device 100A according to the second embodiment. Compared to the power supply and demand management device 100 (see Fig. 1) of the first embodiment, a control unit 110 is provided with a corrected supply plan value calculation unit 116 and a corrected total supply amount calculation unit 117. In addition, in a supply management database 210A (not shown), an attribute (column) of the corrected supply plan value is added to the supply management database 210 (see Fig. 3).

[0054] The corrected supply plan value calculation unit 116 calculates the corrected supply plan value based on the weather forecast information. The corrected total supply amount calculation unit 117 calculates the difference between the supply plan value and the corrected supply plan value for each power supply plan. The corrected total supply amount calculation unit 117 also calculates the sum of the differences for all power supply plans and the sum of the corrected supply plan values ​​for all power supply plans for the same day and time slot.

[0055] Second embodiment: Total power supply prediction process 8 is a flowchart of the total power supply prediction process according to the second embodiment. The total power supply prediction process is repeatedly executed for each time slot a predetermined time before the time slot including the day indicated by the day and time slot. The total power supply prediction process may be executed following the power supply and demand management process (see FIG. 6) of the first embodiment. Hereinafter, the time slot to be processed is referred to as the processing target time slot.

[0056] In step S31, the corrected supply plan value calculation unit 116 starts the process of repeating steps S32 to S38 for each record in the supply management database 210A whose day and time slot are the processing time period. In step S32, the corrected supply plan value calculation unit 116 calculates sample values ​​of the supply plan values. For example, the corrected supply plan value calculation unit 116 sets values ​​starting from the minimum value of the past actual supply value of the power supply system 510 to the maximum value of the past actual supply value at a predetermined interval as sample values. Alternatively, the corrected supply plan value calculation unit 116 may calculate statistical information such as the average and variance from the past supply plan values ​​and actual supply values ​​of the power supply system 510, and calculate the sample values ​​by generating random numbers from a probability distribution according to the statistical information.

[0057] In step S33, the corrected supply plan value calculation unit 116 sets the variables, ie, the corrected plan value and the maximum reliability, to zero. In step S34, the corrected supply plan value calculation unit 116 starts the process of repeating steps S35 to S37 for each sample value calculated in step S32.

[0058] In step S35, the supply reliability calculation unit 114 sets the supply plan value as the sample value, and calculates the supply reliability of the power supply plan indicated by the record, using the supply reliability statistical model 131. To explain in more detail, the supply reliability calculation unit 114 calculates the supply reliability using the supply reliability statistical model 131 based on the sample value and weather forecast information at the location where the power generation facility of the power supply system 510 indicated by the supplier identification information (see FIG. 3) of the record is located.

[0059] In step S36, if the supply reliability calculated in step S35 is greater than the maximum reliability (step S36 → YES), the corrected supply plan value calculation unit 116 proceeds to step S37, and if it is less than the maximum reliability (step S36 → NO), the corrected supply plan value calculation unit 116 returns to step S35 and processes the next sample value.

[0060] In step S37, the corrected supply plan value calculation unit 116 sets the corrected plan value as the sample value, and sets the maximum reliability as the supply reliability calculated in step S35. The corrected plan value stores the sample value with the maximum supply reliability among the sample values ​​so far, and the maximum reliability stores the supply reliability of the sample value.

[0061] In step S38, the corrected supply plan value calculation unit 116 stores the value of the corrected plan value in the corrected supply plan value of the record. In step S39, the corrected total supply amount calculation unit 117 calculates the sum of the corrected plan values ​​of the records in the supply management database 210A whose day and time slot are the processing time period, and sets this as the predicted value of the total power supply amount. The corrected total supply amount calculation unit 117 also calculates the difference between the supply plan value and the corrected supply plan value for each of the records, and further calculates the sum of the differences.

[0062] FIG. 9 is a graph for explaining the corrected supply plan value according to the second embodiment. The horizontal axis is the sample value (supply plan value), and the vertical axis is the supply reliability. The sample values ​​range from 170 (kWh) to 510 in increments of 10. When the sample value is 380 (see the dotted vertical line), the supply reliability is at its maximum of 0.9, and the corrected supply plan value is 380 (kWh). As shown in the graph, the corrected supply plan value calculation unit 116 calculates the supply reliability while changing the sample value, and calculates the sample value with the maximum supply reliability as the corrected supply plan value.

[0063] As described above, the power supply and demand management device 100A includes the corrected supply plan value calculation unit 116 that calculates the supply plan value that maximizes the supply reliability as a corrected supply plan value. The power supply and demand management device 100A also includes a corrected total supply amount calculation unit 117 that calculates the difference between the supply plan value and the corrected supply plan value, the sum of the differences related to all power supply plans, and the sum of the corrected supply plan values ​​related to all power supply plans.

[0064] <<Second embodiment: Features of the power supply and demand management device>> The power supply and demand management device 100A calculates a corrected supply plan value for each power supply plan, and further calculates a predicted value of the total amount of power supply, which is the sum of the corrected supply plan values. By performing supply and demand matching using the corrected supply plan values, the power supply and demand management device 100A can realize an agreement between a power supply plan and a power demand plan with a small mismatch between supply and demand, and can reduce the cost of difference compensation processing.

[0065] Third Embodiment The power supply and demand management device 100 of the first embodiment matches a power supply plan that matches the time slot, power type, power source type, and power amount with a power demand plan. The power demand plan may include a required supply reliability that indicates a minimum value of the supply reliability, and may be matched with a power supply plan that has a supply reliability equal to or higher than the required supply reliability.

[0066] Third embodiment: Configuration of power supply and demand management device 10 is a functional block diagram of a power supply and demand management device 100B according to the third embodiment. Compared to the power supply and demand management device 100 (see FIG. 1) of the first embodiment, a supply and demand matching unit 115B and a demand management database 230B are different.

[0067] Fig. 11 is a data configuration diagram of the demand management database 230B according to the third embodiment. In the demand management database 230B, a column (attribute) of requested supply reliability is added to the demand management database 230 (see Fig. 4) of the first embodiment. The requested supply reliability indicates the minimum value of the supply reliability of the power supply plan that is the contracting party. The demand management unit 112 stores the requested supply reliability included in the power demand plan received from the power demand system 520 in the requested supply reliability of the demand management database 230B.

[0068] The supply and demand matching unit 115B matches and contracts with the power demand plan, the power supply plan having the same time slot, power type, power source type, and power amount, and the supply reliability equal to or higher than the required supply reliability. The supply and demand matching unit 115B may also match and contract even when the supply plan value is equal to or higher than the demand plan value.

[0069] An example will be shown below using Figures 3 and 11. The record (power demand plan) with administrator identification information "D1" in Figure 11 can be matched and contracted with any record (power supply plan) with administrator identification information "S1," "S2," or "S3" in the supply management database 210 (see Figure 3) if it is matched with the time slot, power type, power source type, and demand plan value. However, the only power supply plan that satisfies the required supply reliability (90%) is "S1," and so a contract will be made with this power supply plan. The power demand plan with the administrator identification information "D2" will be matched with the power supply plan of "S3" and contracted.

[0070] As described above, the demand management unit 112 of the power supply and demand management device 100B receives a power demand plan from the power demand system 520, which includes a time slot of the power demand schedule, a demand plan value which is the amount of power of the scheduled demand, and a requested supply reliability which indicates the minimum value of the supply reliability of the power supply plan which is the counterparty of the contract. The supply and demand matching unit 115B of the power supply and demand management device 100B makes an agreement between the power demand plan and a power supply plan of a supply reliability that satisfies the requested supply reliability.

[0071] <<Third embodiment: Features of the power supply and demand management device>> The power supply and demand management device 100B according to the third embodiment matches and contracts a power demand plan with a power supply plan that satisfies the required supply reliability. The power demand system 520 can procure power with a high reliability of the supply plan value by setting a power source type that uses renewable energy with a high required supply reliability, making it easier to set a CO2 reduction target for power usage. In addition, a power supply and demand manager who uses the power supply and demand management device 100B can realize efficient power supply and demand management that reflects the requests of the power demand system 520.

[0072] Fourth Embodiment In the third embodiment, the power demand plan includes a requested supply reliability indicating the minimum value of the supply reliability, and the power supply and demand management device 100B matches the power demand plan with a power supply plan whose supply reliability is equal to or higher than the requested supply reliability. Furthermore, the power supply plan may include a requested demand reliability indicating the minimum value of the demand reliability, and the power supply plan may be matched with a power demand plan whose demand reliability is equal to or higher than the requested demand reliability. Note that the demand reliability is the probability that the difference between the demand plan value and the actual demand value (demand performance value) is equal to or lower than a predetermined value.

[0073] Fourth embodiment: Configuration of power supply and demand management device Fig. 12 is a functional block diagram of a power supply and demand management device 100C according to the fourth embodiment. Compared to the power supply and demand management device 100 (see Fig. 1) of the first embodiment, the control unit 110 includes a demand reliability calculation unit 118, and the storage unit 130 includes a demand reliability statistical model 132. Also, a model generation unit 113C, a supply and demand matching unit 115C, a supply management database 210C, and a demand management database 230C are different.

[0074] 13 is a data configuration diagram of a supply management database 210C according to the fourth embodiment. In the supply management database 210C, a column (attribute) of requested demand reliability is added to the supply management database 210 (see FIG. 3) of the first embodiment. The requested demand reliability indicates the minimum value of the demand reliability of the power demand plan that is the contracting party.

[0075] 14 is a data configuration diagram of a demand management database 230C according to the fourth embodiment. In the demand management database 230C, columns (attributes) of requested supply reliability and demand reliability are added to the demand management database 230 (see FIG. 4) of the first embodiment. The requested supply reliability indicates the minimum value of the supply reliability of the power supply plan that is the contracting party. The demand reliability is the probability that the difference between the actual demand power amount (demand performance value) of the power demand system 520 indicated in the consumer identification information during the time period indicated in the time slot and the demand plan value indicated in the power amount is equal to or less than a predetermined value. A method for calculating the demand reliability will be described later.

[0076] The demand reliability statistical model 132 is almost the same as the supply reliability statistical model 131, except that the output is demand reliability. More specifically, the demand reliability statistical model 132 is a statistical model (machine learning model) that calculates the probability that the power demand system 520 will demand an amount of power that is within an error between the amount of power (demand plan value) in the power demand plan and a predetermined value during a time slot. The input (explanatory variables) of the demand reliability statistical model 132 includes a demand plan value. The input may further include weather forecast information at the power demand business operator and a location where the power demand business operator's facility is located, the location of the power demand business operator's facility (e.g., a factory), weather information for the past predetermined period at the location, weather forecast for the past predetermined period, demand plan value for the past predetermined period, demand actual value for the past predetermined period, power type, power source type, time period (month, day, hour, minute), and consumer identification information.

[0077] The demand reliability calculation unit 118 uses the demand reliability statistical model 132 to calculate the demand reliability based on the demand plan value, and stores it in the demand reliability of the demand management database 230C. The demand reliability calculation unit 118 may include, as input to the demand reliability statistical model 132, weather forecast information for the power demand business operator and the location where the power demand business operator's facility is located, the position of the location where the power demand business operator's facility is located, weather information for the location for a specified period in the past, weather forecast for the specified period in the past, demand plan value for the specified period in the past, actual demand value for the specified period in the past, power type, power source type, time period (month, day, hour, minute), and consumer identification information.

[0078] The model generation unit 113C generates a demand reliability statistical model 132 in addition to the supply reliability statistical model 131. The generation process of the demand reliability statistical model 132 is similar to the generation process of the supply reliability statistical model 131 (see FIG. 5). The supply and demand matching unit 115C matches and agrees on a power supply plan and a power demand plan where the time slot, power type, and power source type match, the supply plan value is greater than or equal to the demand plan value, the supply reliability is greater than or equal to the required supply reliability, and the demand reliability is greater than or equal to the required demand reliability.

[0079] An example will be shown using Figures 13 and 14. The record (power supply plan) in Figure 13 with the administrator identification information "S3" and the record (power demand plan) in Figure 14 with the administrator identification information "D2" have the same time slot, power type, power source type, and power amount (supply plan value and demand plan value). In addition, since the supply reliability (85%) is equal to or greater than the required supply reliability (80%) and the demand reliability (80%) is equal to or greater than the required demand reliability (70%), the supply and demand matching unit 115C matches and contracts these power demand plans and power supply plans.

[0080] The power demand plan in Fig. 14 with administrator identification information "D1" matches the time slot, power type, power source type, and power amount with both the power supply plan in Fig. 14 with administrator identification information "S1" and the power supply plan with administrator identification information "S2". The power supply plan in "S1" has a supply reliability equal to or higher than the required supply reliability (90%), but the demand reliability of "D1" (60%) does not satisfy the required demand reliability (90%) of the power supply plan. Therefore, the power demand plan in "D1" does not match either the power supply plans in "S1" or "S2".

[0081] As described above, the demand management unit 112 of the power supply and demand management apparatus 100C receives from the power demand system 520 a power demand plan including a time slot of the power demand plan and a demand plan value which is the amount of power of the demand plan. The storage unit 130 of the power supply and demand management device 100C stores past power demand plans and actual demand values ​​that are amounts of power actually demanded in time slots of the power demand plans, in association with the power demand system 520 (see demand management database 230C).

[0082] The power supply and demand management device 100C includes a demand reliability calculation unit 118 that calculates the demand reliability of the demand plan value included in the power demand plan based on the demand plan value and the demand actual value included in the past power demand plan and the demand plan value included in the power demand plan. In other words, the demand reliability calculation unit 118 calculates the demand reliability of the demand plan value included in the power demand plan based on the demand plan value included in the power demand plan by using a demand reliability statistical model 132 generated based on the demand plan value and the demand actual value included in the past power demand plan. The demand reliability calculation unit 118 calculates the demand reliability based on the demand plan value as well as weather forecast information at a location where a facility that consumes power related to the power demand system 520 (for example, a facility of a power demand business operator) is located.

[0083] The power supply plan includes a required demand reliability indicating a minimum value of the demand reliability of the power demand plan with which the power supply plan is contracted. The power demand plan includes a required supply reliability indicating a minimum value of the supply reliability of the power supply plan with which the contract is made. The power supply and demand management device 100C includes a supply and demand matching unit 115C that makes an agreement between a power supply plan that satisfies the required demand reliability and a power demand plan that satisfies the required supply reliability.

[0084] <Fourth embodiment: Features of the power supply and demand management device> Compared with the power supply and demand management device 100B according to the third embodiment, the power supply and demand management device 100C according to the fourth embodiment matches and contracts a power supply plan with a power demand plan under the additional condition that the demand reliability satisfies the required demand reliability. The power supply system 510 can supply power to the power demand system 520 having a high reliability of the demand plan value, and can sell the power with a high degree of accuracy. Furthermore, a power supply and demand manager using the power supply and demand management device 100C can realize efficient power supply and demand management that reflects the needs of both the power supply system 510 and the power demand system 520.

[0085] Fifth embodiment In the fifth embodiment, a power supply plan and a power demand plan with high reliability are matched to perform supply and demand management with small supply and demand differences. As in the first embodiment, the power supply plan and the power demand plan do not include required demand reliability or required supply reliability.

[0086] Fifth embodiment: Configuration of power supply and demand management device Fig. 15 is a functional block diagram of a power supply and demand management device 100D according to the fifth embodiment. Compared to the power supply and demand management device 100C (see Fig. 12) of the fourth embodiment, a supply and demand matching unit 115D, a supply management database 210, and a demand management database 230D are different. The supply management database 210 has the same data configuration as in the first embodiment.

[0087] FIG. 16 is a data configuration diagram of a demand management database 230D according to the fifth embodiment. In the demand management database 230D, a column (attribute) of demand reliability is added to the demand management database 230 (see FIG. 4) of the first embodiment. The demand reliability is the same as in the fourth embodiment. The records of the demand management database 230D shown in FIG. 16 are past data, and actual demand values ​​are stored in actual power amounts. As shown in FIG. 16, the higher the demand reliability, the smaller the difference between the demand plan value (see power amount) and the demand actual value (actual power amount).

[0088] Fig. 17 is an example of data in the supply management database 210 according to the fifth embodiment. The records in the supply management database 210 shown in Fig. 17 are past data, and actual supply values ​​are stored in the actual power amounts. As shown in Fig. 17, the higher the supply reliability, the smaller the difference between the supply plan value (referring to the power amount) and the actual supply value (actual power amount).

[0089] The supply and demand matching unit 115D matches and contracts a highly reliable power supply plan and a power demand plan that match in terms of power type, power source type, and power amount. The supply and demand matching unit 115D may also match and contract even when the supply plan value is equal to or greater than the demand plan value.

[0090] The processing of the supply and demand matching unit 115D will be described below with reference to Figs. 16 and 17. Here, the processing will be described at a time before the value of the actual power amount (actual value) is stored in Figs. 16 and 17, that is, in a state in which the actual power amount (actual value) is unknown. In this example, the supply and demand matching unit 115D matches and contracts the power demand plan of management identification information "D2" with the power supply plan of management identification information "S1". Here, the difference in the actual value is 40 kWh, which is the difference between 550 and 590. This difference is smaller than the 90 kWh obtained when, for example, the power demand plan of "D1" (demand actual value is 500) is matched with the power supply plan of "S1" (supply actual value is 590) in the order of management identification numbers.

[0091] The supply and demand matching unit 115D matches and contracts the power demand plan of "D1", which has the next highest reliability, with the power supply plan of "S3". Here, the difference in the actual value is 50 kWh, which is the difference between 500 and 550. This difference is equivalent to the 50 kWh when matching the power demand plan of "D1" (demand actual value is 500) with the power supply plan of "S2" (supply actual value is 450) in the order of management identification information excluding the already-contracted "D2" and "S1".

[0092] As described above, the demand management unit 112 of the power supply and demand management device 100D receives from the power demand system 520 a power demand plan including a time slot of the power demand plan and a demand plan value which is the amount of power of the scheduled demand. The storage unit 130 of the power supply and demand management device 100D stores past power demand plans and actual demand values ​​that are amounts of power actually demanded in time slots of the power demand plans, in association with the power demand system 520 (see demand management database 230D).

[0093] The power supply and demand management device 100D includes a demand reliability calculation unit 118 that calculates the demand reliability of the demand plan value included in the power demand plan based on the demand plan value and the demand actual value included in the past power demand plan and the demand plan value included in the power demand plan. In other words, the demand reliability calculation unit 118 calculates the demand reliability of the demand plan value included in the power demand plan based on the demand plan value included in the power demand plan by using a demand reliability statistical model 132 generated based on the demand plan value and the demand actual value included in the past power demand plan.

[0094] The demand reliability calculation unit 118 calculates the demand reliability based on the demand plan value as well as weather forecast information at a location where a facility that consumes power related to the power demand system 520 (for example, a facility of a power demand business operator) is located. The power supply and demand management device 100D also includes a supply and demand matching unit 115D that preferentially matches a power supply plan with high supply reliability and a power demand plan with high demand reliability.

[0095] <Fifth embodiment: Features of the power supply and demand management device> The power supply and demand management device 100D according to the fifth embodiment matches and contracts a highly reliable power supply plan and a highly reliable power demand plan. When the reliability is high, the difference between the planned value and the actual value is expected to be small, and the difference in the actual supply and demand is small, so that efficient supply and demand matching is possible.

[0096] <Modification: Supply Reliability Statistical Model> In the above embodiment, the supply reliability statistical model 131 is common to the power supply systems 510 and is used to calculate the supply reliability based on the supply plan values ​​for all the power supply systems 510. Alternatively, there may be a supply reliability statistical model 131 for each power supply system 510.

[0097] The model generation unit 113 prepares generation data based on past records of the power supply system 510 in the supply management database 210, and generates a supply reliability statistical model 131 corresponding to the power supply system 510. Furthermore, the supply reliability calculation unit 114 uses the supply reliability statistical model 131 corresponding to the power supply system 510 when calculating the supply reliability for the supply plan value of the power supply system 510.

[0098] As described above, the supply reliability calculation unit 114 calculates supply reliability based on the supply plan values ​​and actual supply values ​​included in the past power supply plans sent by the power supply system 510 and the supply plan values ​​included in the power supply plan sent by the power supply system 510. In other words, the supply reliability calculation unit 114 calculates supply reliability based on the supply plan values ​​included in the power supply plan sent by the power supply system 510, using the supply reliability statistical model 131 generated based on the supply plan values ​​and actual supply values ​​included in the past power supply plans sent by the power supply system 510.

[0099] <Modification: Demand Reliability Statistical Model> The demand reliability statistical model 132 is similar to the supply reliability statistical model 131, and there may be a demand reliability statistical model 132 for each power demand system 520. The model generation unit 113C prepares generation data based on past records of the power demand system 520 in the demand management database 230, and generates the demand reliability statistical model 132 corresponding to the power demand system 520. In addition, the demand reliability calculation unit 118 uses the demand reliability statistical model 132 corresponding to the power supply system 510 when calculating the demand reliability for the demand plan value of the power demand system 520.

[0100] <<Variation: Supply and Demand Matching>> The supply and demand matching unit 115 in the above embodiment matches one power supply plan with one power demand plan to make a contract. A plurality of power supply plans may be matched with one power demand plan to make a contract. The supply and demand matching unit 115B matches the power demand plan with a power supply plan with a supply reliability equal to or higher than the required supply reliability to make a contract. When matching with a plurality of power supply plans, the supply reliability of the plurality of power supply plans may be the supply reliability weighted by the supply plan value of each power supply plan. For example, the supply reliability of a power supply plan obtained by combining a power supply plan with a supply reliability of 90% and a supply plan value of 300 kWh with a power supply plan with a supply reliability of 60% and a supply plan value of 100 kWh may be (300 / (300+100))×90%+(100 / (300+100))×60%=82.5%.

[0101] Other variations Although several embodiments of the present invention have been described above, these embodiments are merely illustrative and do not limit the technical scope of the present invention. The present invention can take various other embodiments, and various modifications such as omissions and substitutions can be made without departing from the gist of the present invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the scope and gist of the invention described in this specification, etc., and are included in the scope of the invention described in the claims and their equivalents. [Explanation of symbols]

[0102] 10. Electricity supply and demand management system 100, 100A, 100B, 100C, 100D Power supply and demand management device 111 Supply Management Department 112 Demand Management Department 113, 113C, Model generation section 114 Supply Reliability Calculation Unit 115, 115B, 115C, 115D Supply and Demand Matching Department 116 Corrected supply plan value calculation unit 117 Corrected supply total amount calculation section 118 Demand Reliability Calculation Department 131 Statistical Model of Supply Reliability 132 Demand Reliability Statistical Model 210,210A,210C Supply Management Database 230,230B,230C,230D Demand Management Database 250 Weather Information Database 260 Power Information Database 510 Power Supply System 520 Electricity Demand System

Claims

1. a power supply management unit that receives a power supply plan including a time slot for a power supply schedule and a supply plan value that is an amount of power to be supplied from the power supply system; a storage unit that stores the past power supply plans and actual supply values ​​that are amounts of power actually supplied in time slots of the power supply plans; a supply reliability calculation unit that calculates a supply reliability of a supply plan value included in the power supply plan based on a supply plan value and a supply performance value included in the past power supply plan and the supply plan value included in the power supply plan. Electricity supply and demand management device.

2. the storage unit stores the past power supply plan and the past supply performance value in association with the power supply system; The supply reliability calculation unit The supply reliability is calculated based on the supply plan value as well as weather forecast information at a location where a power generation facility related to the power supply system is located. The power supply and demand management device according to claim 1 .

3. the storage unit stores the past power supply plan and the past supply performance value in association with the power supply system; The supply reliability calculation unit The supply reliability is calculated based on the power supply system that has transmitted the power supply plan including the supply plan value in addition to the supply plan value. The power supply and demand management device according to claim 1 .

4. the storage unit stores the past power supply plan and the past supply performance value in association with the power supply system; The supply reliability calculation unit The supply reliability is calculated based on a supply plan value and a supply performance value included in a past power supply plan transmitted by the power supply system, and a supply plan value included in the power supply plan transmitted by the power supply system. The power supply and demand management device according to claim 1 .

5. a corrected supply plan value calculation unit that calculates the supply plan value that maximizes the supply reliability as a corrected supply plan value; The power supply and demand management device according to claim 1 .

6. a corrected total supply amount calculation unit that calculates a difference between the supply plan value and the corrected supply plan value, a sum of the differences related to all of the power supply plans, and a sum of the corrected supply plan values ​​related to all of the power supply plans; The power supply and demand management device according to claim 5.

7. a demand management unit that receives, from an electric power demand system, an electric power demand plan including a time slot of an electric power demand plan, a demand plan value that is an amount of electric power of the demand plan, and a requested supply reliability that indicates a minimum value of the supply reliability of an electric power supply plan that is a contracting party; a supply and demand matching unit that matches the power demand plan with a power supply plan having the supply reliability that satisfies the required supply reliability. The power supply and demand management device according to claim 1 .

8. A demand management unit is provided for receiving, from a power demand system, a power demand plan including a time slot of a power demand plan and a demand plan value which is a power amount of the demand plan; The storage unit is storing the past power demand plan and a demand actual value, which is an amount of power actually demanded in a time slot of the power demand plan, in association with the power demand system; a demand reliability calculation unit that calculates a demand reliability of a demand plan value included in the power demand plan based on a demand plan value and a demand actual value included in the past power demand plan and a demand plan value included in the power demand plan, The power supply plan includes a required demand reliability indicating a minimum value of the demand reliability of a power demand plan that is a contracting party, The power demand plan includes a required supply reliability indicating a minimum value of the supply reliability of a power supply plan that is a contracting party, A supply and demand matching unit that matches a power supply plan that satisfies the required demand reliability with a power demand plan that satisfies the required supply reliability. The power supply and demand management device according to claim 1 .

9. A demand management unit is provided for receiving, from a power demand system, a power demand plan including a time slot of a power demand plan and a demand plan value which is a power amount of the demand plan; The storage unit is storing the past power demand plan and a demand actual value, which is an amount of power actually demanded in a time slot of the power demand plan, in association with the power demand system; a demand reliability calculation unit that calculates a demand reliability of a demand plan value included in the power demand plan based on a demand plan value and an actual demand value included in the past power demand plan and a demand plan value included in the power demand plan; a supply and demand matching unit that preferentially matches the power supply plan having high supply reliability with the power demand plan having high demand reliability. The power supply and demand management device according to claim 1 .

10. The demand reliability calculation unit The demand reliability is calculated based on the demand plan value as well as weather forecast information at a location where a facility that consumes power related to the power demand system is located. The power supply and demand management device according to claim 8 or 9.

11. The power supply and demand management device, receiving, from a power supply system, a power supply plan including a time slot for power supply and a power supply plan value which is a power amount to be supplied; a storage unit that stores the past power supply plans and actual supply values ​​that are amounts of power actually supplied in time slots of the power supply plans, Executing a step of calculating a supply reliability of a supply plan value included in the power supply plan based on a supply plan value and a supply performance value included in the past power supply plan and the supply plan value included in the power supply plan. Electricity supply and demand management methods.

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